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Madagascar's Fluid Party System: Authoritarian Legacies and An Cadernos de Estudos Africanos 38 | 2019 Three Decades of Elections in Africa: What have we learned about democracy? Madagascar’s Fluid Party System: Authoritarian legacies and an uneven playing field in an enduring competitive authoritarian regime O sistema partidário fluído de Madagáscar: Legados autoritários e condições de competição desiguais em um regime autoritário competitivo duradouro João Pedro Garrido Conduto and Edalina Rodrigues Sanches Electronic version URL: http://journals.openedition.org/cea/4271 DOI: 10.4000/cea.4271 ISSN: 2182-7400 Publisher Centro de Estudos Internacionais Printed version Date of publication: 1 December 2019 Number of pages: 41-66 ISSN: 1645-3794 Electronic reference João Pedro Garrido Conduto and Edalina Rodrigues Sanches, « Madagascar’s Fluid Party System: Authoritarian legacies and an uneven playing field in an enduring competitive authoritarian regime », Cadernos de Estudos Africanos [Online], 38 | 2019, Online since 09 March 2020, connection on 11 March 2020. URL : http://journals.openedition.org/cea/4271 ; DOI : https://doi.org/10.4000/cea.4271 O trabalho Cadernos de Estudos Africanos está licenciado com uma Licença Creative Commons - Atribuição-NãoComercial-CompartilhaIgual 4.0 Internacional. Cadernos de Estudos Africanos (2019) 38, 41-66 © 2019 Centro de Estudos Internacionais do Instituto Universitário de Lisboa (ISCTE-IUL) Madagascar’s Fluid Party System: Authoritarian legacies and an uneven playing field in an enduring competitive authoritarian regime João Pedro Garrido Conduto Instituto de Ciências Sociais da Universidade de Lisboa Av. Prof. Aníbal Bettencourt, 9 1600-189 Lisbon, Portugal [email protected] Edalina Rodrigues Sanches Instituto de Ciências Sociais da Universidade de Lisboa Av. Prof. Aníbal Bettencourt, 9 1600-189 Lisbon, Portugal [email protected] Esta publicação é financiada por fundos nacionais através daFCT - Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia no âmbito do UID/CPO/03122/2013 42 Madagascar’s fluid party system: Authoritarian legacies and uneven playing field in an enduring competitive authoritarian regime Madagascar’s fluid party system: Authoritarian legacies and an uneven playing field in an enduring competitive authoritarian regime1 Party systems are expected to grow and mature with time; however, the case of Madagascar is one of high fluidity: parties and leaders rise and fall from one election to the next and there is a low entry cost for new contenders. This study explores the role of authoritarian legacies and elites’ efforts to skew the playing field as key factors for under- standing why the Malagasy party system has failed to institutionalise since the start of the Third Republic. The findings show how leadership centralisation, ethnicity, personal- ism and clientelism shaped party formation during the authoritarian era and beyond; and also how incumbents’ attempts to create asymmetries in access to resources, media and law have been ineffective and successfully countervailed by the opposition. Keywords: Madagascar, elections, parties, party systems, authoritarian legacies, level playing field O sistema partidário fluído de Madagáscar: Legados autoritários e condições de competição desiguais em um regime autoritário competitivo duradouro Espera-se que os sistemas partidários cresçam e amadureçam com o tempo; no entanto, o caso de Madagáscar é de alta fluidez: há elevada volatilidade entre partidos e líderes em sucessivas eleições, e os novos competidores facilmente são eleitos. Este estudo explora o papel dos legados autoritários e as estratégias de distorção das condições de competição eleitoral enquanto fatores-chave para entender por que razões o sistema partidário malga- xe não se institucionalizou desde o início da Terceira República. Os resultados demons- tram que a centralização da liderança partidária, a etnicidade, o personalismo e o cliente- lismo moldaram a formação dos partidos durante – e para além – do período autoritário; e que as tentativas dos incumbentes de criar assimetrias no acesso a recursos, meios de comunicação e legislação têm sido ineficazes e compensadas com sucesso pela oposição. Palavras-chave: Madagáscar, eleições, partidos, sistemas partidários, legados autoritários, igualdade nas condições de competição Recebido: 04 de dezembro de 2019 Aceite: 21 de dezembro de 2019 1 The authors would like to thank the reviewers for their careful reading and insightful comments. This work has been supported by the Portuguese Foundation for Science and Technology through the project CEECIND/02527/2017 and the PhD scholarship SFRH/BD/145649/2019. Cadernos de Estudos Africanos • julho-dezembro de 2019 • 38, 41-66 João Pedro Garrido Conduto & Edalina Rodrigues Sanches 43 Finding the reasons why some party systems grow and mature with time while others remain fluid is an exercise that is both relevant and challenging. Though a constellation of macro-level factors – historical legacies, political insti- tutions, economics, social structure – combine to explain the likelihood of institu- tionalisation or stabilisation over time2, there are also striking variations within and across regions (Sanches, 2018). The great diversity in the format and func- tioning of African party systems offers an excellent laboratory for revisiting the weight of existing explanations. In fact, while dominant parties and party sys- tems have proliferated in countries such as South Africa, Namibia, Tanzania and Mozambique (Bogaards & Boucek, 2010), those in Madagascar, Kenya, Comoros and Zambia, just to name a few examples, have experienced massive vote shifts in elections, high fragmentation and the frequent emergence and success of new parties and independent candidates (Salih & Nordlund, 2007; Sanches, 2018). This article’s main goal is to understand why Madagascar’s party system has failed to institutionalise over repeated elections and remains as fluid as it was at the beginning of the Third Republic. Existing scholarship shows that the passing of time has had little effect on party system development in Africa (Kuenzi & Lambright, 2001; Lindberg, 2007; Sanches, 2018), whereas authoritarian legacies have lasting effects (LeBas, 2011; Riedl, 2014). Thus, parties that, during authoritarianism, were able to rely on pre-existing organisational structures (LeBas, 2011) or to garner support by in- corporating local elites (Riedl, 2014) were better able to endure over time. Though also acknowledging the relevance of these historical legacies, this study proposes a more dynamic framework. The overall argument is that the way politics plays out in the present results from a mix between the legacies from prior historical periods, and the extent to which political elites are continuously able to make the playing field uneven (Levitsky & Way, 2010b). Consequently, where parties mainly rely on personal or material resources to build support (Levitsky & Way, 2013) and fail to effectively skew the competition in their favour (Levitsky & Way, 2010b) they will be more likely to fragment over time. This argument is tested in the case of Madagascar, which is relevant for at least three reasons. 2 Institutionalisation and its dimensions have been measured variously in studies spanning all regions in the world, but stability has come to be considered its most relevant aspect (Casal Bértoa, 2018; Mainwaring, 2018). Institutionalisation and stability are often used interchangeably, and are conceptually connected. Stability expresses the extent to which a stable set of parties interact in relatively stable ways over time (Mainwaring, 2018), while institutionalisation is a more complex phenomenon, referring to “the process by which a practice or organization becomes well established and widely known, if not universally accepted” (Mainwaring, 1999, p. 25). In Africa, scholars have ranged from using multiple indicators and dimensions of institutionalisation (Kuenzi & Lambright, 2001; Lindberg, 2007; Sanches, 2018), to focusing exclusively on stability (Lindberg, 2007; Ferree, 2010). Cadernos de Estudos Africanos • julho-dezembro de 2019 • 38, 41-66 44 Madagascar’s fluid party system: Authoritarian legacies and uneven playing field in an enduring competitive authoritarian regime First, it is one of the few countries with experience of a multi-party system pri- or to the start of the democratic wave in Africa in the early 1990s. Elections were competitive during the First Republic (1960-1975) and, although they became more restrictive in the Second Republic (1975-1993), parties were allowed to run as long as they supported the state’s socialist ideals by joining the National Front for the Defence of the Revolution (FNDR) dominated by the ruling Vanguard for the Malagasy Revolution (AREMA) (Thibaut, 1999, p. 533). Second, though the Third Republic (1993-2010) marked a transition to more democratic elections, at least formally, in practice the regime remained “competitive authoritarian” (Bogaards & Elischer, 2016, p. 12; Levitsky & Way, 2010a, p. 276), meaning that “electoral manipulation, unfair media access, abuse of state resources, and vary- ing degrees of harassment and violence” often skewed the playing field in favour of incumbents (Levitsky & Way, 2010a). Third, Madagascar is often depicted as an “unstable competitive authoritarian regime” characterised by weak parties, and recurrent political crises (Bogaards & Elischer, 2016; Levitsky & Way, 2010a). In this sense, it resembles other cases in the continent (e.g. Malawi, Kenya and Zambia). The study is structured
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