Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Global security concerns: anticipating the twenty-first century / Karl P. Magyar. p. cm. Includes bibliographical references. 1. War-Forecasting. 2. Security International. 3. Twenty-first century- Forecasts. I. Magyar, K. P. (Karl P.) U21.2.G53 1996 355.02/0905-dc 20 96-12651 CIP ISBN 1-58566-006-X First Printing April 1999 Second Printing July 2000 Third Printing September 2001 Digitize January 2003 from 2001 Third Printing NOTE: Pagination changed Disclaimer This publication was produced in the Department of Defense school environment in the interest of academic freedom and the advancement of national defense-related concepts. The views expressed in this publication are those of the authors and do not reflect the official policy or position of the Department of Defense or the United States government. This publication has been reviewed by security and policy review authorities and is cleared for public release. ii Dedicated to the students of the Air Command and Staff College, many of whom will soon make vital security-related decisions concerning our future. iii Contents Page DISCLAIMER .................................................................................................................... ii PREFACE.......................................................................................................................... vi HISTORY, CULTURE, AND CHANGE: FOUNDATIONS OF CONFLICTS AND WARS ..................................................................................................................1 RELIGION-A BANNER FOR TWENTY-FIRST CENTURY CONFLICT...................19 NATIONAL FRAGMENTATION, ETHNICITY, AND THE NEW WORLD ORDER........................................................................................................................32 POPULATION PRESSURES, MIGRATION, AND REFUGEES...................................46 TRANSNATIONAL CRIME ITS EFFECT AND IMPLICATIONS FOR INTERNATIONAL STABILITY ...............................................................................58 HUMAN RIGHTS AND HUMANITARIAN CONCERNS ............................................70 ANTICIPATING THE TWENTY-FIRST CENTURY ECONOMIC SOURCES OF CONFLICTS..........................................................................................................82 THE THIRD WORLD’S NONVIABLE STATES A MAJOR SOURCE OF CONFLICT IN THE TWENTY-FIRST CENTURY.................................................96 Table 2 .......................................................................................................................101 WHEN THE WATER RUNS OUT.................................................................................111 TRANSNATIONAL AIR, WATER, AND LAND DEGRADATION PROBLEMS ..............................................................................................................124 NUCLEAR CONFLICT AND NONPROLIFERATION ISSUES IN THE TWENTY-FIRST CENTURY...................................................................................134 THE OTHER WEAPONS OF MASS DESTRUCTION CHEMICAL AND BIOLOGICAL ...........................................................................................................145 CONVENTIONAL ARMAMENTS MAPPING WARFARE IN THE TWENTY- FIRST CENTURY.....................................................................................................161 REGIONAL IMPACTS OF CIVIL WARS ....................................................................176 THREATS FROM THIRD WORLD REGIONAL HEGEMONS..................................186 INTERNATIONAL TERRORISM IN THE TWENTY-FIRST CENTURY .................198 THE TRANSMILLENNIAL WORLD FROM AN AMERICAN PERSPECTIVE......210 v PREFACE One of the most important and intellectually fascinating areas of investigation for the student of political affairs concerns the attempt to understand why man makes war. This ancient field of inquiry may be addressed at such various levels as the philosophical and psychological or the institutional and structural contexts of human behavior. For example, did the recent wars in Somalia, Rwanda, and Haiti result from clashing ideologies, tribalism, poverty and class warfare, the cold war, or distant ramifications of colonial history, or, as has been postulated, the trees of these countries having been cut down? These plausible sources of conflict offer insight into various dimensions of explanations for wars; however, the analysts in this volume focus on just one aspect of the inquiry. They were charged with the task of anticipating which specific contentious issues likely will propel large, organized political units to choose violent means of acquiring their sociopolitical objectives rather than attaining them peacefully. The units on which we focus have been traditionally identified as states, but we recognize that a host of new sub- and suprastate actors also will play major roles in such wars; hence, we also will allude to them. The specific issues identified in the text are by no means completely new sources of contention. Indeed, we may easily argue that throughout history men have fought over the same objects and values-only the weapons, strategies, and tactics in their acquisition have changed. We concentrate on those issues that we believe will be prominent sources of contention at the dawn of the twenty-first century. We knowingly omitted some of the most pervasive and such well-articulated causes of wars as power-balancing initiatives or the quest for such natural resources as oil or strategic minerals. These causes no doubt will prevail as sources of violent conflict, but they will not likely assume new forms as will those issues which ' comprise our chapter topics. Nor do we rank in order of importance a list of issues likely to lead to wars. We make no assumptions about the feasibility of such rankings as too many undetermined variables would enter into such an equation. We do offer a brief background on each topic; we attempt to assess the magnitude of them; we speculate on who the antagonists may be; and we attempt to project the disruptive potential of each topic under consideration and speculate on how it might impact the interests of the United States. We also are sensitive to assumptions that the potential disputes we portray must lead to war. In our analyses we offer balance by exploring the prospect that our contentious issues also may be resolved peacefully. Currently, numerous avail- able and prominent analyses caution us not to be overly sanguine about the end of war, and as analysts associated with the nation's military effort, we maintain a healthy respect for anticipating early the emerging challenges which counsel the timely formulation of appropriate responses. vi We do not proffer the emergence of startling new world paradigms and, we avoid the "gloom-and-doom" approach in drawing attention to our investigations. In fact, most of the sources of instability identified in this volume have manifested themselves in modem- day conflicts, but we anticipate a larger role for them in the future. For example, it may seem innovative to identify international criminal activity as a future cause of armed hostilities between states, but we need only to recall our military operations in Panama and Haiti, which were motivated in part by our attempt to diminish the flow of narcotics into the United States. The US also has offered military support to the governments of several South American countries so they might curtail illicit drug production- ultimately headed for the US. We may be struck by several observations in the following chapters. Foremost, in addressing prospective disruptive challenges emanating from the sources we identify, there will be little utility for addressing the challenges with nuclear weapons. Conventional military means, which address the issues while longer lasting political solutions are formulated, may address the host of conflicts having social and economic sources better than nuclear weapons. Another readily identifiable characteristic of many of the sources of conflict is the pervasiveness of economic bases. It may be the most overt reason on occasion, but many times economic foundations play an underlying role in support of other noneconomic causes. This requires that we analyze more than only the immediate, overt sources of instability but also the long-term perspective which may dictate a nonmilitary strategy for the ultimate resolution of those conflicts. Not surprising, most, if not virtually all, armed conflicts in the near term will be experienced in the third world, although they will engage the interests-and involvement- of the developed world. While resource and ecological problems will underlie many conflicts as the third world attempts to come to term with its population growth in a constrained international environment, the developed world will not escape altogether these same concerns. That armed force has been implemented in recent years by several developed states to ensure access to food resources, namely in pursuit of established fishing rights and practices, has surprised many. Others have noted that in some regions of the world in the future water might be worth more than oil. And, a final suggestion cautions the reader to accept the complexity of causes of wars. Wars are rarely the product of a clearly defined object of contention between two rivals; instead, antagonists, as well as allied participants, pursue a combination of goals when the war allows them the opportunity to do so. What we present