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MASARYK UNIVERSITY Faculty of Social Studies Department of IR MASARYK UNIVERSITY Faculty of Social Studies Department of IR and European Studies PhD Dissertation Brno 2014 Zinaida Shevchuk MASARYK UNIVERSITY Faculty of Social Studies Department of IR and European Studies Mgr. Zinaida Shevchuk Understanding Armed Conflicts: Evolving Nature of Conflicts in the South Caucasus PhD Dissertation Supervisor: doc. PhDr Zdeněk Kříž, Ph.D. Brno 2014 Acknowledgements First and foremost, I would like to thank my advisor, Zdeněk Kríž, for his guidance throughout my research and my professional development. You have set an example of excellence as a researcher, mentor, and instructor along this journey. Second, I express my profound gratitude to Professors Vít Hloušek and Peter Suchý, both of whom have contributed tremendously to my professional growth. I would also like to thank my best friend, Radana Kubová, for her support. Last but not least, I would like to thank my soul mate, Ondřej Bechný. Your love and support helped make the completion of this dissertation possible. I dedicate this dissertation to my parents, Svetlana and Vladimer Shevchuk Declaration I hereby declare that this PhD dissertation is my own work, that it has been written on the basis of the sources listed here, and that these listed sources have been referred to and acknowledged in the text. Table of Contents CHAPTER 1: INTRODUCTION ........................................................................................................... 1 1.1 RESEARCH QUESTIONS AND ARGUMENT ............................................................................................ 1 1.2 CONTEMPORARY RESEARCH .................................................................................................................... 8 1.3 RESEARCH CHALLENGES AND CONTRIBUTION TO THE FIELD ............................................................ 12 1.4 DATA COLLECTION .................................................................................................................................... 14 1.5 STRUCTURE OF THE STUDY ...................................................................................................................... 15 CHAPTER 2: THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK............................................................................... 17 2.1 TYPOLOGY OF ISSUES AT STAKE IN ARMED CONFLICTS ...................................................................... 17 2.2 ETHNIC CONFLICT ...................................................................................................................................... 20 2.3 CONFLICT OVER POLITICAL ARRANGEMENTS ...................................................................................... 25 2.4 IDEOLOGICAL CONFRONTATION AND ITS CONSEQUENCES ................................................................. 27 2.5 ECONOMIC CONFLICT ................................................................................................................................ 30 2.6 TERRITORIAL CROSS-BORDER CONFLICT .............................................................................................. 33 CHAPTER 3: METHODOLOGICAL FRAMEWORK ..................................................................... 35 3.1 CONFLICT ANALYSIS FRAMEWORK: RESEARCH DESIGN ..................................................................... 35 3.1.1 Research Design: “Building Block” ................................................................................................ 37 3.2 CATEGORIZATION OF THE CONCEPT ....................................................................................................... 38 3.3 CONFLICT-MAPPING FRAMEWORK ......................................................................................................... 39 3.3.1 Conflict Parties ........................................................................................................................................ 40 3.3.2 Issues at Stake and Incompatibility .............................................................................................. 41 3.4 CONFLICT TYPOLOGY BY PROCESS—VIOLENCE INTENSITY .............................................................. 43 3.4.1 Conflict Phases ........................................................................................................................................ 46 CHAPTER 4: ARMED CONFLICT OVER NAGORNO-KARABAKH ......................................... 50 4.1 PHASE A: FROM LATENT CONFLICT TO ESCALATION .......................................................................... 52 4.1.1 The Dynamics of Politicization of the Nagorno-Karabakh Issue for Armenian National Identity ................................................................................................................................................... 54 4.1.2 Politicization of the Nagorno-Karabakh Issue and Azerbaijani Statehood ............... 56 4.1.3 From Nonviolent Demonstrations to Violent Events ............................................................. 58 4.1.4 Conflicting Parties and Emerging Issues at Stake .................................................................. 60 4.2 PHASE B: TRIGGER EVENTS – EMERGENCE OF SPORADIC CLASHES ................................................. 63 4.2.1 The Road to Armed Conflict: Political Mobilization in Armenia and Azerbaijan .... 66 4.2.2 Violent Stage of the Armed Conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh .............................................. 72 4.3 PHASE C: “FROZEN” CONFLICT................................................................................................................ 75 CHAPTER 5: ARMED CONFLICTS IN GEORGIA: CASE STUDIES OF SOUTH OSSETIA AND ABKHAZIA ..................................................................................................................................... 78 5.1 POLITICAL DEVELOPMENT IN GEORGIA: STRUGGLE FOR INDEPENDENCE ....................................... 79 5.2 CASE STUDY: ARMED CONFLICT IN SOUTH OSSETIA ........................................................................... 82 5.2.1 Phase A: The Spiral of Conflict: The Process of Escalation to War ................................. 83 5.2.2 Phase B: Economy of Conflict in South Ossetia ........................................................................ 89 5.2.3 Phase C: Red Lines in South Ossetia .............................................................................................. 96 5.2.4 Putting the Armed Conflict into the Context ............................................................................. 99 5.3 CASE STUDY: ABKHAZIAN-GEORGIAN CONFLICT .............................................................................. 105 5.3.1 Phase A: Latent Conflict Between Georgians and Abkhazians ...................................... 106 5.3.2 Phase B: The Logic of Violence in the Georgian-Abkhazian Conflict .......................... 121 5.3.3 Phase C: Changing the Paradigm – Backwards Instead of Forwards ........................ 130 CHAPTER 6: CONCLUSION ............................................................................................................ 138 APPENDIX .............................................................................................................................................. 148 BIBLIOGRAPHY .................................................................................................................................... 152 List of Tables Table 1 Categories of Conflict Intensity. .......................................................................... 44 Table 2 The Population of the Nagorno-Karabakh Autonomous Region......................... 55 Table 4 Evolution of the Issue at Stake: De facto, De jure and Desired Status of Abkhazia (1989-2008). ............................................................................................................ 130 Table 5 The Summary of Argument and Cases. ............................................................. 139 List of Figures Figure 1 Conflict Mapping................................................................................................ 42 Figure 2 Vicious Cycle of Conflict ................................................................................... 49 Figure 3 The Layout of the Ergneti Market in South Ossetia ........................................... 91 Figure 4 Demographic Changes in Abkhazian ASSR. ................................................... 108 Figure 5 Mechanism of Smuggling in the Gali and Zugdidi Districts in Georgia .......... 127 Figure 6 Georgian Attitudes Towards Abkhazia‘s Independence. ................................. 134 List of Maps Map 1 Ethno-linguistic Distribution in the South Caucasus, 2004. .................................... 6 Map 2 Smuggling Routs in South Ossetia ........................................................................ 92 Chapter 1: Introduction 1.1 Research Questions and Argument Armed conflicts in the Caucasus represent one of the most complex challenges that emerged with the breaking apart of the Soviet Union. Patterns of political, economic, and cultural discrimination, intensified by historical grievances, as well as the effects of political transformation and economic development, national doctrines, and the role of external actors have all contributed to the escalation of conflicts in this region. That created a challenge for the conflict analysis and has led to the development of different interpretations emphasizing the role of weak states, economic depression, and external support. The aim of this research
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