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FSNAU-Post-Deyr-2012-13-Analysis-Presentation- FINAL1

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FSNAU-Post-Deyr-2012-13-Analysis-Presentation- FINAL1 Information for Better Livelihoods Post Deyr 2012/13 February 1st, 2013 Technical Partner Donors Swiss Agency for Development and Cooperaon SDC EUROPEAN COMMISSION FSNAU Post Deyr 2012/13 Assessment Overall Timeline FSNAU/Partner Planning Meeting (Nairobi) November 28, 2012 Regional Planning Meetings (Field) December 17-18, 2012 Fieldwork December 19 – 28, 2012 Regional Analysis Workshops (Field) December 31, 2012 - January 4, 2013 All Team Analysis Workshops (Hargeysa) January 7 – 18, 2013 Vetting Meetings January 22 (Nut) & 28 (FS), 2013 Release of Results Post-Deyr 2012/13 Presentation of Findings and February 1, 2013 Technical Release Regional Presentations in Somalia February 2013 Technical Series Reports February 21 (Nut) & 25 (FS), 2013 FSNAU Deyr 2012/13 Assessment Partner Parcipaon Total Number of Partners Parcipang in Field Assessments and Analysis Workshop and Veng – Total‐133 Food Security Field Assessment – Total 61 Nutrion Field Assessment – Total 28 Naonal Instuons 2 Local NGOs 3 Local NGOs 11 Internaonal NGOs 4 Internaonal NGOs 7 Ministries 16 Ministries 12 Local Authories 3 FEWS NET 3 UN 2 UN 4 Enumerators 8 Focal Points 15 Analysis Workshop – Total 29 Nutrion Veng – Total 15 FEWS NET NAIROBI 4 Local NGOs 9 WFP 5 Internaonal NGOs 4 HADMA 2 UN 2 FAO Palesne 1 FAO Regional 1 FSC 2 Government Focal Points (Somaliland and Puntland) 15 FSNAU Post Deyr 2012/13 Assessment Food Security Assessment Access and Field Monitoring Locaons Food Security Post‐Deyr 2012/13 Informaon Sources Food Security Assessment Interviews/ Secondary Data FS Focus Group Discussions (Dec ‘12) FS HH Surveys (Nov‐Dec ‘12) Region Rural FGDs Urban FGD IDP FGD Region Urban IDP Selement Bari 64 ‐ ‐ Bari 451 974 Nugal & North Mudug 60 ‐ ‐ Nugal & North Awdal/Galbeed 50 ‐ ‐ Mudug 938 1,418 Togdheer 31 ‐ ‐ Sool 41 ‐ ‐ Awdal/Galbeed Sanaag 39 ‐ ‐ 900 947 South Mudug 40 12 18 Togdher 451 490 Galgadud 62 18 143 Sool 425 ‐ Hiran 63 18 18 Sanaag 433 ‐ M. Shabelle 59 17 18 L. Shabelle 98 18 ‐ Banadir 450 750 Bay 60 18 18 4,048 4,579 Bakool 63 18 _ Gedo 85 18 18 Secondary Sources: M. Juba 59 18 ‐ • Satellite Imagery Data L. Juba 54 18 ‐ • SWALIM Land Cover and Land Use Total 928 173 233 • SWALIM/ FSNAU/ FEWS NET Rain Gauges • Monthly Market Price and Labor wage data • Rural Market Monitoring data • Port and Cross‐border trade Stascs • Livelihood baseline studies • UNHCR IDP populaon esmates Deyr 2012/13 Respondents by Gender Urban Surveys: For meaningful gender results, . 581 males and 2,991 females. HHs have been grouped into three fundamental categories: . HHs categories‐Urban North: o 2,059 HHs dependent on men Households dependent on men o 1,021 HHs dependent on women or man for food or income to o 469 HHs dependent on both women and buy food. men Households dependent on IDP selements: women or woman for food or . 3,068 HHs dependent on both men and income to buy food. women Households dependent on . 632 HHs dependent on women both woman and man for food or income to buy food. 547 HHs dependent on men Nutrion Informaon Sources Deyr (Oct‐Dec) 2012 Region Rural livelihood surveys Urban livelihood IDP surveys Total No. conducted surveys conducted conducted of Surveys Northwest, 9 7 7 23 northeast (W.Golis, E. Golis/NW, Agro‐p, (Awdal, W. Galbeed, (Hargeisa, Burao, Hawd, Sool plateau, Nugal valley, Togdheer, Sool, Berbera, Bossaso, E. Golis/NE, Coastal deeh/NE Sanaag, Bari, Nugal, Qardho, Garowe, Galkayo) Central 2 2 1 (Dusamareb/Guriel) 5 (Hawd, Addun) (Mudug, Galgadud) South 7 2 5 14 (Beletweyn District, Mataban, Bay, (Mog, Afgoye) (Mogadishu, Kismayo, Bakool pastoral, N. Gedo Pastora, Dolow, Dobley, Baidoa) agro‐past. and riverine) Total 18 11 13 42 42 Nutrion Surveys (based on WHZ, WHO GS 2006 ) Rapid MUAC assessments (8): Juba (3), South Gedo (3), Central coastal deeh (1), Cowpea belt (1) Health Center Monitoring (HIS): Collected from 130 health facilies in accessible regions in the period Jul‐Dec’12. Related Selecve Feeding Centre Data: obtained from UNICEF, WFP and partner agencies Secondary Related Data (risk factors for deterioraon) • WHO & Somalia emergency weekly health updates, October‐January 2013) • Food security, displacements data. (Sources: FSNAU, OCHA and UNHCR bullens). CLIMATE Deyr 2012/13 Rainfall Performance TAMSAT RFE Percent Anomaly (Oct‐Dec) Overall Statement: Deyr 2012 rains started earlier than normal (early Oct). Rainfall performance was mixed in terms of amount, temporal distribuon, and spaal coverage across the country. The Oct to Dec rainfall esmates compared to the Long Term Mean (1983‐ 2011) shows normal to above normal rainfall in most part of the country Moderate Hays rains (Dec‐Jan) were received in most of the Coastal areas of Bari region and Guban pastoral excluding Zeylac district in December 2012; No Hays rains precipitated in January 2013. Rainfall performance was poor in parts of Sanag, Sool regions, and north Gedo and Lower Juba agropastoral; Dry spell reported in late Nov and early Dec in most of the North, Central, Hiran and Middle Shabelle regions; Source : JRC TAMSAT Indian Ocean Tropical Cyclone Murjan reported in late October in Garowe and Eyl Districts. CLIMATE Vegetaon Condions in the Deyr 2012 Season Overall Statement: NDVI eMODIS Anomaly, December 21‐30, 2012 Improved rangeland (pasture and browse) condions, as well as water resources in most parts of the country. This is due to the effects of moderate to good Deyr 2012/13 and the Gu 2012 rains. However, compared to their ten year (2001‐2010) average, rangeland resources are sll significantly below average in Juba, upper Gedo, Sool, Sanaag, Awdal and Guban pastoral areas of Waqooyi Galbeed. Source: NOAA/CPC/FEWS NET CLIMATE FORECAST Hotter than Normal Dry Season (JFM) and Normal to Below Normal Long Rains (MAM) 1. Hotter than normal dry season expected across the region and especially the northern and eastern sector (+1o to +2oC) Northern Kenya, South Somalia, central and western Ethiopia. 2. Long rains season (Mar – May), raises concerns for normal to below rainfall performance over the eastern sector of the region, including parts of northeastern Kenya, southern Ethiopia and Somalia. ECMWF’s forecast surface temp anomalies (mm): ECMWF forecast rainfall anomalies (mm): Mar Jan- Mar. 2013 - May 2013 CIVIL INSECURITY Civil insecurity remains one of the key factors affecting the food security situation in many parts of Somalia. In spite of the increased control of the Federal Government/AMISOM in the South, armed confrontations, land mines, targeted killings still persist in most of the main towns of South- Central. Key Events and Impacts: . Expansion of Somali Government /AMISOM controlled areas . Clan fighting and revenge killings in Central . Conflict b/w SL government and Khatumo group in the North (Huddun/ Sool) . Tensions over local government election results in Zeylac & Awdal (Dec ‘12) . Blockages in key towns in Bay, Bakool, Juba and Shabelle regions affecting trade and population movements . Improved trade and population movements in Mogadishu . Inflow of Somali refugees from neighboring (Kenya) and other countries . Humanitarian access constraints continued in South-Central Most Likely Scenario for January-June 2013: . Increased government offensive in other parts of the South; restricted humanitarian access; continued disruption of trade and movements in conflict induced-areas MARKETS Trends in Exchange Rates 40,000 8,500 8,000 7,500 35,000 Baidoa Bossasso Galkayo Mogadishu Hargeisa 7,000 6,500 30,000 6,000 5,500 per US Dollar 25,000 5,000 SlSh per US Dollar SoSh 4,500 20,000 4,000 Jun-13 Jun-14 Jun-15 Jun-16 Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16 Sep-13 Sep-14 Sep-15 Sep-16 Month Somali Shilling (SoSh): stable during second half of 2012; appreciated from Dec ’11, parcularly in Northeast (22%) Somaliland Shilling (SlSh): moderate depreciaon (15%) in value since Dec ‘11. MARKETS Imported Commodity Prices Compared to Exchange Rates Import commodity prices: •Stable prices since July 2012 in the South; •Stable/modest decline in Northeast SoSh areas and Central due to relavely stronger shilling •Stable prices except for vegetable oil in the SISh zone due to steady supply through Berbera Port. Factors Affecng Import Commodity Prices (July –Dec 2012) •Decreasing local food prices •Improved Mogadishu port acvies •Improving security •Stable SoSh MARKETS Imported Commodies (Diesel Price) Regional Trends in Diesel Prices (SOSH/SLSH) 60,000 8,000 7,000 50,000 6,000 40,000 5,000 30,000 4,000 3,000 20,000 Juba Valley Shabelle Valley NorthEast SorghumBelt 2,000 10,000 Central Banadir Price per Litre (SLSH) 1,000 Price per Litre (SoSH) NorthWest 0 0 Jun-13 Jun-14 Jun-16 Jun-15 Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-16 Mar-15 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-16 Sep-13 Sep-14 Sep-16 Dec-15 Month Sep-15 Comparison of Diesel Prices (Asia Dubai), Mogadishu and Bossaso MARKETS Imported Commodies (Rice) Regional Trends in Rice Prices (SOSH/SLSH) 60,000 9,000 Juba Valley Shabelle Valley NorthEast SorghumBelt 8,000 50,000 Central Banadir NorthWest 7,000 40,000 6,000 5,000 30,000 4,000 20,000 3,000 2,000 Price per Kg(SLSH) 10,000 Price per Kg (SoSH) 1,000 0 0 Jun-13 Jun-14 Jun-15 Jun-16 Mar-13 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-14 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16 Sep-13 Sep-14 Sep-15 Sep-16 Month Comparison of Rice Prices (Bangkok FOB), Mogadishu and Bossaso MARKETS Imported Commodies (Sugar Price) Regional Trends in Sugar Prices (SOSH/SLSH) 60,000 8,000 7,000 50,000 6,000 40,000 5,000 30,000 4,000 3,000 20,000 Juba Valley Shabelle Valley NorthEast SorghumBelt 2,000 Price per Kg (SLSH) Central Banadir Price per Kg (SoSH) 10,000 NorthWest 1,000 0 0 Jun-13 Jun-15 Jun-16 Jun-14 Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-15 Dec-16 Sep-13 Sep-15 Sep-16 Dec-14 Sep-14 Month Comparison of Sugar Prices: Internaonal (ISO), Mogadishu and Bossaso MARKETS Imported Commodies (Veg.
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