Information for Better Livelihoods

Post Deyr 2012/13 February 1st, 2013

Technical Partner Donors

Swiss Agency for Development and Cooperaon SDC EUROPEAN COMMISSION FSNAU Post Deyr 2012/13 Assessment Overall Timeline

FSNAU/Partner Planning Meeting (Nairobi) November 28, 2012

Regional Planning Meetings (Field) December 17-18, 2012

Fieldwork December 19 – 28, 2012

Regional Analysis Workshops (Field) December 31, 2012 - January 4, 2013

All Team Analysis Workshops (Hargeysa) January 7 – 18, 2013

Vetting Meetings January 22 (Nut) & 28 (FS), 2013

Release of Results

Post-Deyr 2012/13 Presentation of Findings and February 1, 2013 Technical Release Regional Presentations in February 2013

Technical Series Reports February 21 (Nut) & 25 (FS), 2013 FSNAU Deyr 2012/13 Assessment Partner Parcipaon

Total Number of Partners Parcipang in Field Assessments and Analysis Workshop and Veng – Total‐133

Food Security Field Assessment – Total 61 Nutrion Field Assessment – Total 28 Naonal Instuons 2 Local NGOs 3 Local NGOs 11 Internaonal NGOs 4 Internaonal NGOs 7 Ministries 16 Ministries 12 Local Authories 3 FEWS NET 3 UN 2 UN 4 Enumerators 8 Focal Points 15

Analysis Workshop – Total 29 Nutrion Veng – Total 15 FEWS NET NAIROBI 4 Local NGOs 9 WFP 5 Internaonal NGOs 4 HADMA 2 UN 2 FAO Palesne 1 FAO Regional 1 FSC 2 Government Focal Points (Somaliland and Puntland) 15 FSNAU Post Deyr 2012/13 Assessment

Food Security Assessment Access and Field Monitoring Locaons Food Security Post‐Deyr 2012/13 Informaon Sources Food Security Assessment Interviews/ Secondary Data

FS Focus Group Discussions (Dec ‘12) FS HH Surveys (Nov‐Dec ‘12) Region Rural FGDs Urban FGD IDP FGD Region Urban IDP Selement Bari 64 ‐ ‐ Bari 451 974 Nugal & North 60 ‐ ‐ Nugal & North Awdal/Galbeed 50 ‐ ‐ Mudug 938 1,418 Togdheer 31 ‐ ‐ Sool 41 ‐ ‐ Awdal/Galbeed Sanaag 39 ‐ ‐ 900 947 South Mudug 40 12 18 Togdher 451 490 Galgadud 62 18 143 Sool 425 ‐ Hiran 63 18 18 Sanaag 433 ‐ M. Shabelle 59 17 18 L. Shabelle 98 18 ‐ Banadir 450 750 Bay 60 18 18 4,048 4,579 63 18 _ 85 18 18 Secondary Sources: M. Juba 59 18 ‐ • Satellite Imagery Data L. Juba 54 18 ‐ • SWALIM Land Cover and Land Use Total 928 173 233 • SWALIM/ FSNAU/ FEWS NET Rain Gauges • Monthly Market Price and Labor wage data • Rural Market Monitoring data • Port and Cross‐border trade Stascs • Livelihood baseline studies • UNHCR IDP populaon esmates Deyr 2012/13 Respondents by Gender

Urban Surveys:  For meaningful gender results, . 581 males and 2,991 females. HHs have been grouped into three fundamental categories: . HHs categories‐Urban North: o 2,059 HHs dependent on men  Households dependent on men o 1,021 HHs dependent on women or man for food or income to o 469 HHs dependent on both women and buy food. men  Households dependent on IDP selements: women or woman for food or . 3,068 HHs dependent on both men and income to buy food. women  Households dependent on . 632 HHs dependent on women both woman and man for food or income to buy food. . 547 HHs dependent on men Nutrion Informaon Sources Deyr (Oct‐Dec) 2012

Region Rural livelihood surveys Urban livelihood IDP surveys Total No. conducted surveys conducted conducted of Surveys

Northwest, 9 7 7 23 northeast (W.Golis, E. Golis/NW, Agro‐p, (Awdal, W. Galbeed, (Hargeisa, Burao, Hawd, Sool plateau, Nugal valley, Togdheer, Sool, Berbera, Bossaso, E. Golis/NE, Coastal deeh/NE Sanaag, Bari, Nugal, Qardho, Garowe, Galkayo) Central 2 2 1 (Dusamareb/Guriel) 5 (Hawd, Addun) (Mudug, Galgadud) South 7 2 5 14 (Beletweyn District, Mataban, Bay, (Mog, Afgoye) (, Kismayo, Bakool pastoral, N. Gedo Pastora, Dolow, Dobley, Baidoa) agro‐past. and riverine) Total 18 11 13 42

 42 Nutrion Surveys (based on WHZ, WHO GS 2006 )  Rapid MUAC assessments (8): Juba (3), South Gedo (3), Central coastal deeh (1), Cowpea belt (1)  Health Center Monitoring (HIS): Collected from 130 health facilies in accessible regions in the period Jul‐Dec’12.  Related Selecve Feeding Centre Data: obtained from UNICEF, WFP and partner agencies  Secondary Related Data (risk factors for deterioraon) • WHO & Somalia emergency weekly health updates, October‐January 2013) • Food security, displacements data. (Sources: FSNAU, OCHA and UNHCR bullens). CLIMATE Deyr 2012/13 Rainfall Performance

TAMSAT RFE Percent Anomaly (Oct‐Dec) Overall Statement: Deyr 2012 rains started earlier than normal (early Oct). Rainfall performance was mixed in terms of amount, temporal distribuon, and spaal coverage across the country. The Oct to Dec rainfall esmates compared to the Long Term Mean (1983‐ 2011) shows normal to above normal rainfall in most part of the country

Moderate Hays rains (Dec‐Jan) were received in most of the Coastal areas of Bari region and Guban pastoral excluding Zeylac district in December 2012; No Hays rains precipitated in January 2013. Rainfall performance was poor in parts of Sanag, Sool regions, and north Gedo and agropastoral; Dry spell reported in late Nov and early Dec in most of the North, Central, Hiran and regions;

Source : JRC TAMSAT Indian Ocean Tropical Cyclone Murjan reported in late October in Garowe and Eyl Districts. CLIMATE Vegetaon Condions in the Deyr 2012 Season

Overall Statement: NDVI eMODIS Anomaly, December 21‐30, 2012

Improved rangeland (pasture and browse) condions, as well as water resources in most parts of the country. This is due to the effects of moderate to good Deyr 2012/13 and the Gu 2012 rains. However, compared to their ten year (2001‐2010) average, rangeland resources are sll significantly below average in Juba, upper Gedo, Sool, Sanaag, Awdal and Guban pastoral areas of Waqooyi Galbeed. Source: NOAA/CPC/FEWS NET CLIMATE FORECAST Hotter than Normal Dry Season (JFM) and Normal to Below Normal Long Rains (MAM)

1. Hotter than normal dry season expected across the region and especially the northern and eastern sector (+1o to +2oC) Northern Kenya, South Somalia, central and western Ethiopia.

2. Long rains season (Mar – May), raises concerns for normal to below rainfall performance over the eastern sector of the region, including parts of northeastern Kenya, southern Ethiopia and Somalia.

ECMWF’s forecast surface temp anomalies (mm): ECMWF forecast rainfall anomalies (mm): Mar Jan- Mar. 2013 - May 2013 CIVIL INSECURITY

Civil insecurity remains one of the key factors affecting the food security situation in many parts of Somalia. In spite of the increased control of the Federal Government/AMISOM in the South, armed confrontations, land mines, targeted killings still persist in most of the main towns of South- Central.

Key Events and Impacts: . Expansion of Somali Government /AMISOM controlled areas . Clan fighting and revenge killings in Central . Conflict b/w SL government and Khatumo group in the North (Huddun/ Sool) . Tensions over local government election results in Zeylac & Awdal (Dec ‘12) . Blockages in key towns in Bay, Bakool, Juba and Shabelle regions affecting trade and population movements . Improved trade and population movements in Mogadishu . Inflow of Somali refugees from neighboring (Kenya) and other countries . Humanitarian access constraints continued in South-Central

Most Likely Scenario for January-June 2013: . Increased government offensive in other parts of the South; restricted humanitarian access; continued disruption of trade and movements in conflict induced-areas MARKETS Trends in Exchange Rates

40,000 8,500 8,000 7,500 35,000 Baidoa Bossasso Galkayo Mogadishu Hargeisa 7,000 6,500 30,000 6,000 5,500 per US Dollar 25,000 5,000 SlSh per US Dollar

SoSh 4,500 20,000 4,000 Jun-13 Jun-14 Jun-15 Jun-16 Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16 Sep-13 Sep-14 Sep-15 Sep-16 Month  Somali Shilling (SoSh): stable during second half of 2012; appreciated from Dec ’11, parcularly in Northeast (22%)  Somaliland Shilling (SlSh): moderate depreciaon (15%) in value since Dec ‘11. MARKETS Imported Commodity Prices Compared to Exchange Rates

Import commodity prices: •Stable prices since July 2012 in the South; •Stable/modest decline in Northeast SoSh areas and Central due to relavely stronger shilling •Stable prices except for vegetable oil in the SISh zone due to steady supply through Berbera Port.

Factors Affecng Import Commodity Prices (July –Dec 2012) •Decreasing local food prices •Improved Mogadishu port acvies •Improving security •Stable SoSh MARKETS Imported Commodies (Diesel Price)

Regional Trends in Diesel Prices (SOSH/SLSH) 60,000 8,000

7,000 50,000 6,000 40,000 5,000

30,000 4,000

3,000 20,000 Juba Valley Shabelle Valley NorthEast SorghumBelt 2,000 10,000 Central Banadir Price per Litre (SLSH) 1,000 Price per Litre (SoSH) NorthWest 0 0 Jun-13 Jun-14 Jun-16 Jun-15 Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-16 Mar-15 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-16 Sep-13 Sep-14 Sep-16 Dec-15 Month Sep-15

Comparison of Diesel Prices (Asia Dubai), Mogadishu and Bossaso MARKETS Imported Commodies (Rice)

Regional Trends in Rice Prices (SOSH/SLSH) 60,000 9,000 Juba Valley Shabelle Valley NorthEast SorghumBelt 8,000 50,000 Central Banadir NorthWest 7,000 40,000 6,000 5,000 30,000 4,000 20,000 3,000

2,000 Price per Kg(SLSH) 10,000 Price per Kg (SoSH) 1,000 0 0 Jun-13 Jun-14 Jun-15 Jun-16 Mar-13 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-14 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16 Sep-13 Sep-14 Sep-15 Sep-16

Month

Comparison of Rice Prices (Bangkok FOB), Mogadishu and Bossaso MARKETS Imported Commodies (Sugar Price)

Regional Trends in Sugar Prices (SOSH/SLSH) 60,000 8,000 7,000 50,000 6,000 40,000 5,000 30,000 4,000 3,000 20,000 Juba Valley Shabelle Valley NorthEast SorghumBelt

2,000 Price per Kg (SLSH) Central Banadir Price per Kg (SoSH) 10,000 NorthWest 1,000 0 0 Jun-13 Jun-15 Jun-16 Jun-14 Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-15 Dec-16 Sep-13 Sep-15 Sep-16 Dec-14 Sep-14 Month Comparison of Sugar Prices: Internaonal (ISO), Mogadishu and Bossaso MARKETS Imported Commodies (Veg. Oil and Wheat Flour Price)

Regional Trends in Vegetable Oil Prices (SOSH/SLSH) 90,000 14,000 80,000 12,000 70,000 10,000 60,000 50,000 8,000 40,000 6,000 30,000 4,000 20,000 Juba Valley Shabelle Valley NorthEast

SorghumBelt Central Banadir Price per Litre (SLSH) 10,000 2,000 NorthWest Price per Litre (SoSH) 0 0 Jun-13 Jun-15 Jun-16 Jun-14 Mar-13 Mar-15 Mar-16 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-15 Dec-16 Sep-13 Sep-15 Sep-16 Mar-14 Dec-14 MonthSep-14

Regional Trends in Wheat Flour Prices (SOSH/SLSH) 50,000 10,000 45,000 Juba Valley Shabelle Valley NorthEast 9,000 40,000 SorghumBelt Central Banadir 8,000 NorthWest 35,000 7,000 30,000 6,000 25,000 5,000 20,000 4,000 15,000 3,000 10,000 2,000 Price per Kg (SLSH) 5,000 1,000 Price per Kg (SoSH) 0 0 Jun-13 Jun-14 Jun-15 Jun-16 Mar-13 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-14 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16 Sep-13 Sep-14 Sep-15 Sep-16 Month MARKETS Consumer Price Index

• Slight decline in CPI rates (7%) in SoSh regions. The CPI is stable in northwestern parts of the country. • Significant decrease (24%) in annual inflation rates in the SoSh areas; • Factors driving down the cost of living in South-Central: o Reduced local cereal (red sorghum) prices o Reduced/stable prices of imported food MARKETS Likely Developments (Jan‐June 2013)

• Staple cereal prices are expected to decline (seasonal trend) unl March 2013 owing to increased supply from the recent Deyr harvest; o Concerns: farm‐gate prices may not cover costs of producon

• Relave stability across the country may sustain the strength of the SoSh, hence the stability in the price of food imports;

• An increase in cross border trade acvies is expected in light of the gradual improvements in the security situaon and road networks (end of rainy season). Rangeland Condions and Livestock Migraon

. Average to good rangeland condions (pasture and water) in most of the livelihoods except: o North: Sool Plateau of Sanaag and Nugaal Valley o South and Central: north Gedo, Coastal Deeh of and Lower Juba (poor) . Normal livestock migraon in most livelihoods except in Sool Plateau and Nugaal valley . Livestock migraon is to remain within normal range in the South even in the condions of below normal Gu (current forecast) o Livestock body condion: Improved (average to good) across all the livelihoods, except in west Guban o Livestock prices: remained all me high and increasing trend o Producon and reproducon: Most of the livestock species are either in the gestaon or

lactaon period, except in west Guban and parts Good Camel Body condion, Addun, North of Sool and Coastal Deeh (Bari and Central) Mudug, FSNAU, Dec’12 o Milk producon: Average in most of the livelihoods. Excepons are west Guban, Sool Plateau and parts of Coastal Deeh (Bari and Central regions) o Herd growth for the poor wealth: Increasing trends for all species but holding of small ruminants and cale among the poor is sll below baseline levels in most of the pastoral

livelihoods Poor sheep/goat Body condion, Guban, FSNAU, Dec’12 Trends in Local Cale Prices

Regional Average Monthly Prices Cale (SoSh/SlSh) LIVESTOCK Regional Trend in Local Goat Prices

Regional Trends in Local Quality Goat Prices in the South (SOSH) SorghumBelt Shabelle Valley Juba Valley 1,600,000 1,400,000 1,200,000 1,000,000 800,000 600,000 400,000 200,000 0 Price per Head of Goat (SOSH) Jun-13 Jun-15 Jun-16 Jun-14 Mar-13 Mar-15 Mar-16 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-15 Dec-16 Sep-13 Sep-15 Sep-16 Mar-14 Dec-14 Sep-14

Trends in Local Quality Goat Prices in Northern and Central Regions

NE Central NW (SLSH) 1,600,000 400,000 1,400,000 350,000 1,200,000 300,000 1,000,000 250,000 800,000 200,000 600,000 150,000 400,000 100,000 200,000 50,000 0 0 Price per Head of Goat (SOSH) Price per Head of Goat (SLSH) Jun-13 Jun-15 Jun-16 Jun-14 Mar-13 Mar-15 Mar-16 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-15 Dec-16 Sep-13 Sep-15 Sep-16 Mar-14 Dec-14 Sep-14 LIVESTOCK Trends in Fresh Camel and Cale Milk Prices

Monthly Trends in Fresh Camel Milk Prices (SoSh/SlSh) Monthly Trend in Fresh Cale Milk Prices (SoSh/ SlSh)

60,000 7,000 60,000 7,000

6,000 6,000 50,000 50,000

5,000 5,000 40,000 40,000 4,000 4,000 30,000 30,000 3,000 3,000 SlSh per Litre SoSh per Litre SoSh per Litre 20,000 20,000 SlSh per Litre 2,000 2,000

10,000 10,000 1,000 1,000

0 0 0 0 Jun-13 Jun-15 Jun-16 Jun-14 Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16 Sep-13 Sep-14 Sep-15 Sep-16 Jun-13 Jun-14 Jun-15 Jun-16 Mar-13 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-14 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-15 Dec-16 Sep-13 Sep-15 Sep-16 Dec-14 Sep-14 Month Month

SorghumBelt Juba Valley Shabelle Valley SorghumBelt Juba Valley Shabelle Valley Central NE NW Central NW Trends in 2012 Livestock Exports Through Berbera & Bossaso

Berbera & Bossaso: Livestock Exports (Heads) Total Annual Livestock Exports and Export Quality Goat Prices (US$)

July-Dec Livestock Exports Jan-June Livestock Exports 1,900 80 1,800 5-year Average (2007-2011) 1,700 70 6,000,000 1,600 1,500 1,400 60 5,000,000 Thousands 1,300 1,200 50 1,100 4,000,000 1,000 Camel Exports 900 Cattle Exports 40 800 Shoats Exports Hargesia Price 700 3,000,000 Galkayo Price 30 600 Bossaso Price 500 Price Per Head (US$) Burao Price 20 Number of Heads 400 2,000,000 300 200 10 100 1,000,000

Livestock Exports (Heads) 0 0

0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Month AGRICULTURE Trends in Cereal Producon (South and Northwest)

Deyr Cereal Producon Trends in Southern Somalia

200,000 Maize Sorghum PWA 5 year Avrg 150,000 . South: Third highest Deyr

100,000 cereal producon since MT 1995(144% of Deyr avg 50,000 for 1995‐2011); sorghum

0 and maize producon of Annual Cereal Producon Trends in Southern Somalia 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 about 143,000MT 450,000 400,000 Deyr Gu Overall PWA 5 year Avrg . Red sorghum represents 350,000 300,000 over two‐thirds of the 250,000

MT 200,000 total producon 150,000 100,000 50,000 0 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 . Northwest AP: Good Gu/ Cereal Producon Trends in Northwest Karan (73,000MT) 80,000 Maize Sorghum Pet Average producon of cereals 60,000 (104% of PET Avg:

40,000 2010‐2011); MT 20,000 . White sorghum accounts 0 for 88% of the total cereal 2010 2011 2012 producon AGRICULTURE Deyr 2012/13 Cereal Producon in Southern Somalia

Deyr 2012 Producon in MT Deyr 2012 as % of Deyr 2012 as % of Deyr 2012 as % of Regions Deyr 5YR average Deyr 2011 Maize Sorghum Total Cereal (1995‐2011) (2007‐2011)

Bakool 1,000 8,000 9,000 78% 359% 222% Bay 6,000 51,000 57,000 93% 172% 145% Gedo 2,000 4,000 6,000 82% 107% 96% Hiran 2,000 6,000 8,000 128% 123% 240% Juba Dhexe 4,000 3,000 7,000 107% 178% 154% (Middle) Juba Hoose 2,000 0 2,000 220% 171% 302% (Lower) Shabelle Dhexe 10,000 7,000 17,000 70% 141% 157% (Middle) Shabelle Hoose 20,000 17,000 37,000 55% 112% 145% (Lower) Deyr 2011Total 47,000 96,000 143,000 77% 146% 151%

Deyr Off‐Season Maize: March ‐ April 2013 Regions Maize (MT) Total Cereal (MT) 1000 Gedo 1000

Total 1000 1000 AGRICULTURE Cereal Producon in Northwest

Gu‐Karan Cereal Producon Esmates in Somaliland (North West)

Gu‐Karan 2012 Producon in MT Gu‐Karan Gu‐Karan Gu‐Karan 2012 as % of 2012 as % of 2012 as % of Regions Gu‐Karan 5 year Gu‐Karan Maize Sorghum Total Cereal PWA average 2011 (1998‐2011) (2007‐2011)

Awdal 1,000 15,000 17,000 121% 311% 183% Togdheer 0 4,000 4,000 572% 494% 279% Woqooyi 6,000 45,000 52,000 Galbeed 97% 272% 185%

Gu‐Karan 2012 Total 7,000 64,000 73,000 107% 288% 188% AGRICULTURE Regional Cereal (Maize and Sorghum) Contribuons in Southern Somalia

Deyr 2012/13 Cereal Producon by Region Maize Producon Deyr 2012/13 by Region

Shabelle Dhexe (middle) 21% Shabelle lower Juba Juba (hoose) Hoose(lower) Shabelle Dhexe Hoose(lower 43% 2% (middle) ) Juba 12% 5% Dhexe(Middle) Shabelle lower 5% (hoose) 26% Hiraan Juba Bakool 5% Dhexe(Middl 2% e) Hiraan Gedo Gedo Bay 9% 4% 4% 4% 12%

Sorghum Producon Deyr 2012/13 by Region Bay 40% Bay Gedo Bakool Hiraan 54% 4% 6% 6% Juba Dhexe(Middle ) 3%

Juba Hoose(lower) 0%

Bakool 8% Shabelle Shabelle Dhexe lower (hoose) (middle) 18% 7% AGRICULTURE Deyr 2012/13 Good Sorghum Crops

Good Sorghum Crop. Bulo Adde, Qansah Dheere, Good Sorghum Crop Harvest. Dila, Baki, Awdal. Bay. FSNAU, Dec. 2012 FSNAU, Nov. 2012

Good Sorghum Crops. Koon, Wanlaweyn, Good Maize Crop. Suryo, Garboharey, Gedo. L. Shabelle, FSNAU, Dec. 2012 FSNAU, Dec. 2012 AGRICULTURE Deyr 2012/13 Other Crop Producon Esmates in Somalia

Estimated 51,000MT of other crops:

. Rice (1,500MT) – Middle Shabelle

. Cowpea (15,000MT) – Central (38%); Bay (24%); Lower Shabelle (19%); the rest (M. Shabelle, Jubas, Bakool)

Good Groundnut Crop. Hagarkaa, Baidoa, . Sesame (23,000MT) – L. Shabelle (46%); M. Juba Bay. FSNAU, Dec. 2012 (35%); the rest (Bay, L. Juba, M. Shabelle)

. Groundnut (2,000MT) – Bay

. Onions (7,500MT) - Hiran (94%); Gedo (6%)

. Watermelon (2,000MT) – Hiran (84%); Gedo (16%) Good Sesame Crop. Buale, M. Juba, FSNAU, Dec. 2012 AGRICULTURE Regional Trends in Cereal Prices and Agriculture Daily Rate

Trends in White Maize Prices [Shabelle & Juba Riverine] Trends in White Sorghum Prices [North West]

Jamame (White Maize 1kg) Jilib (White Maize 1kg) Hargeisa (White Sorghum 1kg) Borama (White Sorghum 1kg) Qorioley (White Maize 1kg) Jowhar (White Maize 1kg) Togwajale (White Sorghum 1kg) Burao (White Sorghum 1kg) 25,000 8,000 7,000 20,000 6,000 15,000 5,000 10,000 4,000 3,000 5,000 Price Per Kg (SLSH) Price per Kg (SOSH) 2,000 0 1,000 0 Jun‐15 Jun‐13 Jun‐14 Jun‐16 Sep‐13 Sep‐14 Sep‐15 Sep‐16 Dec‐15 Dec‐12 Dec‐13 Dec‐14 Dec‐16 Mar‐13 Mar‐14 Mar‐15 Mar‐16 Month Jun‐15 Jun‐13 Jun‐14 Jun‐16 Sep‐13 Sep‐14 Sep‐15 Sep‐16 Dec‐12 Dec‐13 Dec‐14 Dec‐15 Dec‐16 Mar‐13 Mar‐14 Month Mar‐15 Mar‐16

Trends in Red Sorghum Price [Sorghum Belt] Trends in Agriculture Daily Labor Rate [Southern regions] Bardera (Red Sorghum 1 kg) Baidoa ( Red Sorghum 1 kg) 120000 Huddur ( Red Sorghum 1 kg) Beletweyne (White Sorghum 1kg) SorghumBelt Juba Valley Shabelle Valley 30,000 100000 25,000 80000 20,000 60000

15,000 SoSh 40000 10,000 20000 5,000

Price per Kg (SOSH) 0 0 Jun-13 Jun-14 Jun-15 Jun-16 Mar-13 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-14 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-15 Dec-16 Sep-13 Sep-15 Sep-16 Dec-14 Sep-14 Month Jun‐13 Jun‐14 Jun‐15 Jun‐16 Sep‐15 Sep‐13 Sep‐14 Sep‐16 Dec‐12 Dec‐13 Dec‐14 Dec‐15 Dec‐16 Mar‐15 Mar‐13 Mar‐14 Mar‐16 Month Projected Cereal Availability: 2013 Preliminary Cereal Balance Sheet (CBS) in ‘000’MT

. Total cereal requirement in Somalia is estimated at 1 million tons based on 135kg per capita food needs 81 food aid supply (250) . Current CBS is based on Deyr 2012/13, 296 commercial Gu-Karan 2012 harvests in NW and import supply projections for Gu 2013 production (5yr domesc avg), imports (3-yr avg), and food producon assistance (WFP plan for 2013). 414 deficit . The total deficit of 21% in Jan-Dec 2013

. Current estimate does not include all planned food assistance for Somalia

33 NUTRITION SECTOR Global, WHO GS, WHZ<‐2z scores and/or Oedema, (GAM) & Severe Acute Malnutrion, WHO GS, WHZ & <‐3 and/or Oedema (SAM), Deyr (Oct‐Dec) 2012

30

15

0 % acutely malnourished Dolo IDPs Burao IDPs BakoolPast Sool Urban E. Golis/NE Baidoa IDPs Dobley IDPs Hawd (NW) E. Golis/NW Sool Plateau Nugal Valley Qardho IDPs Nugal Urban Garowe IDPs Afgoye Town Galkayo IDPs Berbera IDPs Bossaso IDPs Awdal Urban Kismayo IDPs Hargeisa IDPs Sanaag Urban Mudug Urban N. Gedo Agro‐p W. Golis/Guban Mogadishu IDPs Togdheer Urban N. Gedo riverine Coastal deeh/NE N. Gedo Pastoral Bay Agropastoral Mogadishu Town Hawd/NE,Central Galgaduud Urban W. Galbeed Urban Addun/NE, Central Beletweyne District Guriel/DusamarebIDP Agropastoralists of NW

North & Central Regions Southern Regions

GAM SAM

1. North/Central: GAM is 10 – 14.9% in all rural and urban livelihoods except for W. Golis >15% (the latter is consistent with national and Deyr median rate of 16.2% and 15.7%, respectively for 2001-2011); Sool Plateau, Urban (Sool, Togdheer) – 5-9.9%. 2. IDPs: GAM rates >15% except for Hargeisa, Garowe and Baidoa (10-14.9%). Mogadishu IDP has deteriorated to 16% from 9.6%. 3. South: GAM is above 15% in most of the assessed rural South (except for Juba pastoral, Beletweyne, Mataban, Mogadishu which is lower). This is consistent with Deyr median rate. 4. Gender: Only in 2 of the 42 surveys, (Hawd/NE-Central and Bossaso IDPs) there is statistically significant difference between GAM and child Sex and Age. More boys tend to be malnourished compared to girls. In Bossaso IDPs, younger children (<24 months) are significantly more malnourished, while in Hawd, it is the older children (>24 mths). NUTRITION SECTOR Morbidity (%) based on 2 week recall period, October‐December 2012

70

60

50

40 % 30

20

10

0 Hawd Addun Addun Dolo IDPs Hawd/NW Burao IDPs Baidoa IDPs Dobley IDPs Berbera IDP Qardho IDPs Hargeisa IDP Garowe IDPs Nugal Valley Nugal Valley Galkayo IDPs Berbera IDPs Bossaso IDPs Sool Plateau Kismayo IDPs East Golis/NE Hargeisa IDPs Afgoye Town East Golis/NW Bakool Pastoral Mogadishu IDPs Dusamareb IDPs Mataban District N. Gedo pastoral N. Gedo Riverine Bay Agropastoral Coastal Deeh/NE Mogadishu Town West Golis/Guban Beletweyne District Agro‐Pastoral of NW N. Gedo Agropastoral

North Central South IDPs

. Childhood diseases assessed by recall: Suspected malaria, pneumonia, diarrhea and measles . Across the surveyed population groups, reported morbidity amongst at least 20% of the assessed children, except for East Golis/NW, which is 16% . Morbidity was highest in Beletweyne (53.2%), Mataban (50.3%), N. Gedo pastoral (52.5%), Mogadishu IDPs (47.4%) and Bossaso IDPs (46.6%). NUTRITION SECTOR Seasonal Trends of Morbidity, Diarrhea and GAM, 2001‐2012

Assessed Somali populaons, 2001‐2012

Overall morbidity Diarrhoea GAM

70.0% 50.0% 30.0% 10.0% ‐10.0% Gu GU GU GU GU GU GU GU GU GU GU Deyr Deyr Deyr Deyr Deyr Deyr Deyr Deyr Deyr Deyr Deyr Jilaal Jilaal Jilaal Jilaal Jilaal Jilaal Hagaa Hagaa Hagaa Hagaa Hagaa Hagaa Hagaa Hagaa

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Bay Region, 2002‐2012 Togdher Region, 2003‐2012 M. & L. Juba Regions, 2003‐2012 70.0% GAM Morbidity Diarrhoea 70.0% GAM Morbidity Diarrhoea 60.0% GAM Morbidity Diarrhoea 70.0% 60.0% 60.0% 50.0% 50.0% 50.0% 40.0% 40.0% 40.0% 30.0% 30.0% 30.0% 20.0% 20.0% 20.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Gu Gu Gu Gu Gu ‐10.0% Gu Gu Gu Deyr Deyr Deyr Deyr Jilaal Deyr Deyr Deyr Deyr Deyr

Hagaa Hagaa Gu Gu Gu Gu Deyr Gu Deyr Gu Deyr Deyr Gu Deyr Gu DEyr Hagaa Hagaa

2003 2006 2007 2009 2010 2011 2012 2002 2003 2006 2007 2009 2011 2012 2003 2004 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

• Meta-data analysis (2001-2011) indicates significant association between reported morbidity &GAM (RR=1.37) • Diarrhea posed the highest risk (RR=1.43) NUTRITION SECTOR Retrospecve (90 days) crude (CDR) and the under five (U5DR) per 10,000 per day, Deyr (Oct‐Dec) 2012

3.5 CDR U5DR 3 2.5 2 1.5 1 0.5 Death rate/10,000/day 0 Sool0712 Dolo IDPs BayAgrop Burao IDPs BakoolPast Nugal0712 Baidoa IDPs Dobley IDPs Hawd (NW) Qardho IDPs Garowe IDPs Afgoye Town Galkayo IDPs Berbera IDPs Bossaso IDPs Kismayo IDPs East Golis/NE Hargeisa IDPs WGolis/Guban Mogadishu IDPs Coastal deeh/NE EGolis0712 (NW) Mogadishu Town NW Agropastoral Mataban District Hawd/NE,Central Addun/NE, Central Beletweyne District Guriel/DusamarebIDP

NW/NE/Central Regions Southern Regions

North: South: CDR < 0.5 (Acceptable situation based CDR is generally within Alert level (0.5-0.9), on UNICEF 2005 classification) in all and below 0.92, the median for South for assessed population groups except, 2007-2011, except for Dolo IDPs (1.27) - Qardho and Guriel IDPs (Alert - 0.5 and Serious & Dobley IDPs (1.92) - Critical. Main cause of deaths (reported) is AWD and 0.85 respectively). suspected pneumonia. NUTRITION SECTOR Nutrition Situation Estimates, January 2013

• GAM Rates: Improvements from Very Crical levels from July to December 2012 among pastoralists of W. Golis/Guban (Crical) and Nugal Valley (Serious), and agropastoralists of Bay (Crical). Deterioraon in Mataban (Hiran) to Very Crical.

• SAM Rates: Improvements to, or sustained Acceptable levels (<2.5%) except in Hawd (NW), Addun (Central) ‐Alert (3.0‐3.1), N. Gedo agro‐pastoralists (3.8), Serious, Beletweyne (4.9), Crical, and Mataban (7.4), Very Crical. IDPs in Dolo (5.4), Dobley (5.1), Berbera (6.6) and Qardho (7.9) in Crical –Very Crical levels.

• Death rates: Crude (per 10,000 per day) are below emergency level of 2 across Somalia; U5 (per 10,000 per day) are below emergency level of 4 across Somalia. NUTRITION SECTOR Esmated cases of acutely malnourished children (WHZ – WHO GS)

National trends in estimated proportion acutely malnourished under five boys & girls (Aug ‘11- Jan’13) National level August 2011 January 2012 August 2012 January 2013 (1.5 million U5 year old boys & girls) Total acutely malnourished 450,000 (30%) 323,000 (22%) 236,000 (16%) 215,000 (14.5%) Total severely malnourished 190,000 (13%) 93,000 (6%) 54,000 (3.5%) 46,000 (3.1%)

* Nutrion surveys conducted: 60 (Aug’11), 60 (Jan’12), 46 (Aug’12) and 42 (Jan’13). Median GAM levels (2001‐2011) of season used to esmate numbers acutely malnourished where surveys are not conducted.

Deyr 2012 total caseloads of malnourished by region 20.0 15.0 12.2 10.8 8.0 7.6 10.0 7.3 7.0 5.6 5.0 4.7 4.6 4.4 4.0 4.0 3.3 5.0 3.0 2.7 1.5 1.3

cases 0.0 Bay Bari Sool Gedo Hiran Nugal Awdal Proporon of naonal Bakool Sanaag Mudug Lower Middle Togdher Banadir Shabelle Shabelle Galbeed Galgadud Woqooye Lower Juba % acutely malnourished % severely malnourished NUTRITION SECTOR Nutrion Situaon Esmates, August 2012 & January 2013, and outlook, February‐April 2013 August 2012 January 2013 February‐April 2013 Outlook

The nutrion situaon is likely to remain the same across the country in the coming three months except for: . Sool Plateau: could deteriorate to Serious phase, consistent with worrying food security situaon. and seasonal levels . Bakool, Hiran region, North Gedo regions are likely to be in Crical phase consistent with seasonal levels . Shabelle region are likely to be within median levels, in Serious phase

*Current situaon esmates inferred from Oct‐Dec 2012 nutrion assessments findings; Nutrion situaon outlook, Feb‐Apr 2013 inferred from current esmates/median seasonal rates (2001‐2011), alongside with historical disease paerns and food security trends for February – April 2013 period) INTEGRATED ANALYSIS OF LIVELIHOODS

41 RURAL LIVELIHOODS

Regional Trends in Terms of Trade: Rice to Goat • Improved milk availability among most pastoral 100 Central (Red Rice) NE(Red Rice) NW (Red Rice) households for consumpon and sales 90 80 70 • Significantly improved Terms of Trade between 60 50 40 local quality goat and cereals due to low cereal 30

Kg per Head 20 prices and exceponally high goat prices; 10 0 • Increased livestock holding among the poor in Jun-13 Jun-15 Jun-16 Jun-14 Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-15 Dec-16 Sep-13 Sep-15 Sep-16 Dec-14 most livelihoods BUT sll below the baseline Sep-14 levels. Regional Trend in Terms of Trade: Cereal to Goat

• In most pastoral areas in the North poor 350 SorghumBelt (Red Sorghum) Juba Valley (White Maize) households can meet food needs although some 300 Shabelle Valley(White Maize) have small livelihood protecon deficit, i.e. cannot 250 meet all basic needs 200 150 • Food access is limited in Guban and parts of 100 Kg per Head Coastal Deeh of North and Central due to 50 0 successive poor rains leading to: Jun-13 Jun-15 Jun-16 Jun-14 Mar-13 Mar-15 Mar-16 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-15 Dec-16 Sep-13 Sep-15 Sep-16 Mar-14 Dec-14 o Below average to poor livestock condion Sep-14 o Limited livestock asset holding RURAL LIVELIHOODS Deyr 2012/13 Photos

Good Cattle Good Body Condition, Hagar, Lower Average Sh/goats, Dhusamareb, Galgadud region, FSNAU, Juba, FSNAU, Dec. 2012 Dec. 2012

Average Camel Body Condition, Garbahaarey, Gedo, Poor Body Condition, Guban, Zeylac, FSNAU, Dec. 2012 Dec. 2012 RURAL LIVELIHOODS Purchasing Power

Sorghum Belt-Trends in TOT Labour to Cereal • Crop dependent poor households 30 in the agropastoral areas of Lower Bardera (Red Sorghum 1 kg) Baidoa ( Red Sorghum 1 kg) 25 Huddur ( Red Sorghum 1 kg) Beletweyne (White Sorghum 1kg) Juba have about 1‐2 months 20 supply of cereal stock; 5‐6 months in L. Shabelle and Bay; while the 15 rest 3‐4 months; 10 5 Kg per Daily Labour Wage • Labour wages of the farming 0

communies increased in Jun‐13 Jun‐14 Jun‐15 Jun‐16 Sep‐15 Sep‐13 Sep‐14 Sep‐16 Dec‐15 Dec‐12 Dec‐13 Dec‐14 Dec‐16 Mar‐15 Mar‐13 Mar‐14 Mar‐16 December 2012 compared to July Month 2012 and year ago (Dec’11) in Shabelle & Juba Riverine‐TOT Labour to Cereal

most of southern agricultural 40 Jamame (White Maize 1kg) areas; 35 30 Jilib (White Maize 1kg) 25 Qorioley (White Maize 1kg) • ToT daily labour wage/cereal is 20 Jowhar (White Maize 1kg) favorable and higher than in July 15 10 2012 and the 5‐years average 5 (2007‐2011) 0 Kg per Daily Labour Wage Jun‐13 Jun‐14 Jun‐15 Jun‐16 Sep‐15 Sep‐13 Sep‐14 Sep‐16 Dec‐15 Dec‐12 Dec‐13 Dec‐14 Dec‐16 Mar‐13 Mar‐14 Mar‐15 Mar‐16 Month RURAL LIVELIHOODS Food security and livelihoods outcome analysis

Fig 2: Sool Plateau Outcome Analysis- Poor Households Fig 4: Addun Outcome Analysis-Poor Households Non Cyclone Affected Areas 50,000.00 30,000.00

40,000.00 25,000.00

20,000.00 30,000.00 15,000.00 20,000.00 10,000.00 Cash income

(Nominal-000)SoSH 10,000.00 5,000.00

0.00 0.00 Baseline year Current year Baseline year Current year Cash Income (Nominal‐000) SoSH food aid/safety nets self‐employment food aid/safety nets self‐employment #REF! #REF! crop sales livestock product sales livestock product sales milk/meat milk/meat Survival deficit Survival Deficit Livelihoods Protecon Deficit Livelihoods protecon deficit

Fig 5: Dawo Pastoral Outcome Analysis-Poor Households Fig 6: Nugal Valley Outcome Analysis-Poor Households

70,000.00 70,000.00

60,000.00 60,000.00

50,000.00 50,000.00

40,000.00 40,000.00

30,000.00 30,000.00

20,000.00 20,000.00

10,000.00 10,000.00 Cash Income (Nominal-000) SoSH

Cash Income (Nominal-000)SoSH 0.00 0.00 Baseline year Current year Baseline year Current year food aid/safety nets self‐employment food aid/safety nets self‐employment crop sales livestock product sales crop sales livestock product sales RURAL LIVELIHOODS Food security and livelihoods outcome analysis

Fig 5: Dawo Pastoral Outcome Analysis-Poor Households Fig 6: Nugal Valley Outcome Analysis-Poor Households

70,000.00 70,000.00 60,000.00 60,000.00

50,000.00 50,000.00

40,000.00 40,000.00

30,000.00 30,000.00

20,000.00 20,000.00

10,000.00 10,000.00

0.00 0.00 Cash Income (Nominal-000)SoSH Baseline year Current year Cash Income (Nominal-000) SoSH Baseline year Current year

food aid/safety nets self‐employment food aid/safety nets self‐employment crop sales livestock product sales

Fig 7: Hawd Pastoral Outcome Analysis-Poor Households Fig 8:Northwest Agropastoral Outcome Analysis- Poor Households

80,000.00 15,000.00 70,000.00 60,000.00

50,000.00 10,000.00 40,000.00 30,000.00

20,000.00 5,000.00 10,000.00 0.00 Cash Income (Nominal-000)SoSH Baseline year Current year 0.00

food aid/safety nets self‐employment Cash Income (Nominal-000)SoSH milk/meat Baseline year livestock product sales Current year crop sales livestock product sales crops crop sales milk/meat Survival Deficit livestock sales ag.labour self‐employment food aid/safety nets RURAL LIVELIHOODS Food security and livelihoods outcome analysis

Fig 9: Agropastoral High potetnial Outcome Analysis-Poor Households Fig 10: Agropastoral low potential Outcome Analysis- Poor Households

7,000.00 14,000.00

6,000.00 12,000.00

5,000.00 10,000.00

4,000.00 8,000.00

3,000.00 6,000.00

2,000.00 4,000.00

1,000.00 2,000.00

0.00 0.00 Cash Income (Nominal-000) SoSH Baseline year Current year Baseline year Current year Cash Income (Nominal-000) SoSH milk/meat livestock product sales milk/meat livestock product sales crops crop sales crops crop sales livestock sales ag.labour livestock sales ag.labour self‐employment food aid/safety nets self‐employment food aid/safety nets Survival Deficit Livelihoods Protecon Deficit

Fig 11: Bakol Agropastoral Outcome Analysis-Poor Households Fig 12: Togdher Agropastoral Outcome Analysis – Poor Household

7,000.00

6,000.00

5,000.00

4,000.00

3,000.00

2,000.00

1,000.00

0.00 Baseline year Current year Cash income (Nominal-000) SoSH milk/meat livestock product sales crops crop sales livestock sales ag.labour self‐employment food aid/safety nets Survival Deficit Livelihoods Protecon Deficit RURAL LIVELIHOODS Food security and livelihoods outcome analysis

Fig 13: Southern Inland Pastoral Outcome Analysis- Poor Househlolds

18,000.00

16,000.00

14,000.00

12,000.00

10,000.00

8,000.00

6,000.00

4,000.00 Cash Income (Nominal-000) SoSH

2,000.00

0.00 Baseline year Current year

food aid/safety nets self‐employment #REF! livestock product sales milk/meat Survival Deficit Livelihoods Protecon Deficit URBAN LIVELIHOODS Food Consumpon

. Food Consumpon Score (FCS): Improving North & : Food Consumpon 120% food consumpon trend in the North and acceptable borderline poor 100% Banadir (less 20% of people with poor FCS) 80% since Gu 2012; 60% o Poor to borderline food consumpon in most 40% 20% of the Women Dependent HHs (WDH); 0%

. Coping strategy index (CSI): Stable to decreasing from Gu 2012 in most regions but increased slightly in Banadir; o Out of the ≤10% of households adopng severe coping strategies WDH form the majority

. Livelihood change: increased producve assets from last Gu in both WD and MDH; no asset sales reported across the country; people are mostly employing insurance coping strategies URBAN LIVELIHOODS Contribung Factors: Food Access and Availability

. Food available in most of the urban markets (local producon, imports and humanitarian assistance); . Food access: Food is mainly obtained through cash purchase followed by credit; o ≥80% of the urban households in the North and Banadir have one income source, while 1‐3 sources in the South‐ Central o ToT (labour wage to cereal) is higher than 5Yr Avg (2007‐2011); o Connued decline in the cost of the Minimum Basket in most regions (below Gu and Deyr 2012 levels) Internally Displaced Persons in Selements (IDP) Food Security Outcomes

High proportion of IDPs have poor food consumption; 34-58% in NW North & Banaadir: Poor Food Consumpon and 44-74% in the NE 80% 70% Low asset diversity among the 60% 50% IDPs; mostly one asset type per 40% household: either a wheelbarrow or 30% % of households a mobile phone or a radio or skilled 20% 10% work tools 0%

Low diversity of income sources: mostly one income sources per household; exception is Baidoa (3 income sources - self-employment, casual labour and social support) Internally Displaced Persons in Selements (IDP) IPC: Contribung Factors

High food expenditure among the IDPs with limited ability to meet non‐food expenditures (78‐80% of expenditure) IDP: Food Expenditure (%) 80%

78%

Main sources of income: either of casual 76% labour, self‐employment; pey trade; 74% skilled labour (North and Banaadir) 72%

% food expenditure 70% High dependency on loans for food in 68% most of assessed IDPs – increased from 66% July 2012

Crical nutrion situaon in most IDP selements assessed except Hargeisa, Garowe, Baidoa (Serious) Current Food Security Phase Classificaons

Summary Results IPC Classificaon Rural, Urban & IDP populaon in crisis (Current)

Total in UNDP 2005 UNDP 2005 UNDP 2005 Crisis and Urban in Rural in Urban in Urban in Rural in Region Total Urban Rural Rural in Crisis Emergency Stressed Stressed Crisis Emergency Emergency Population Population Population as % of Total population North Awdal 305,455 110,942 194,513 7,000 45,000 0 12,000 0 0 4 Woqooyi Galbeed 700,345 490,432 209,913 22,000 48,000 32,000 4,000 0 0 5 Togdheer 402,295 123,402 278,893 22,000 75,000 0 1,000 0 0 0 Sanaag 270,367 56,079 214,288 13,000 65,000 5,000 7,000 0 7,000 7 Sool 150,277 39,134 111,143 5,000 37,000 0 6,000 0 0 4 Bari 367,638 179,633 188,005 16,000 56,000 14,000 0 0 0 4 Nugaal 145,341 54,749 90,592 6,000 25,000 3,000 2,000 0 1,000 4 Sub-total 2,341,718 1,054,371 1,287,347 91,000 351,000 54,000 32,000 0 8,000 4 Central Mudug 350,099 94,405 255,694 13,000 63,000 2,000 11,000 0 24,000 11 Galgaduud 330,057 58,977 271,080 22,000 67,000 0 13,000 0 25,000 12 Sub-total 680,156 153,382 526,774 35,000 130,000 2,000 24,000 0 49,000 11 South 0 Hiraan 329,811 69,113 260,698 28,000 89,000 0 12,000 0 4,000 5 Shabelle Dhexe 514,901 95,831 419,070 30,000 117,000 0 5,000 0 46,000 10 (Middle) Shabelle Hoose 850,651 172,714 677,937 35,000 186,000 35,000 0 0 0 4 (Lower) Bakool 310,627 61,438 249,189 12,000 96,000 12,000 13,000 0 0 8 Bay 620,562 126,813 493,749 37,000 162,000 0 16,000 0 0 3 Gedo 328,378 81,302 247,076 24,000 84,000 0 0 0 0 0 Juba Dhexe 238,877 54,739 184,138 12,000 58,000 12,000 8,000 0 0 8 (Middle) Juba Hoose 385,790 124,682 261,108 22,000 73,000 22,000 16,000 0 0 10 (Lower) Sub-total 3,579,597 786,632 2,792,965 200,000 865,000 81,000 70,000 0 50,000 6 Banadir 901,183 901,183 - 15,000 - 15,000 - 0 - 2 Grand Total 7,502,654 2,895,568 4,607,086 341,000 1,346,000 152,000 126,000 0 107,000 5

Assessed and Conngency Populaon in Crisis and Emergency Number affected % of Total populaon Distribuon of populaons in crisis

Assessed Urban populaon in Crisis and Emergency 152,000 2 15% Assessed Rural populaon in Crisis and Emergency 233,000 3 23% IDP in selements* (out of UNHCR 1.1 million) to avoid double counng 615,000 8 62% Esmated Rural, Urban and IDP populaon in crisis 1,000,000 13 100% IPC CLASSIFICATION Rural, Urban & IDP Populaon in Crisis (Projected)

Total in Crisis UNDP 2005 UNDP 2005 UNDP 2005 and Urban in Rural in Urban in Rural in Region Total Urban Rural Urban in Crisis Rural in Crisis Emergency Stressed Stressed Emergency Emergency Population Population Population as % of Total population North Awdal 305,455 110,942 194,513 7,000 45,000 0 12,000 0 0 4 Woqooyi Galbeed 700,345 490,432 209,913 22,000 48,000 32,000 4,000 0 0 5 Togdheer 402,295 123,402 278,893 22,000 75,000 0 1,000 0 0 0 Sanaag 270,367 56,079 214,288 13,000 65,000 5,000 7,000 0 7,000 7 Sool 150,277 39,134 111,143 5,000 37,000 0 6,000 0 0 4 Bari 367,638 179,633 188,005 16,000 56,000 14,000 0 0 0 4 Nugaal 145,341 54,749 90,592 6,000 25,000 3,000 2,000 0 1,000 4 Sub-total 2,341,718 1,054,371 1,287,347 91,000 351,000 54,000 32,000 0 8,000 4 Central Mudug 350,099 94,405 255,694 13,000 63,000 2,000 11,000 0 24,000 11 Galgaduud 330,057 58,977 271,080 22,000 67,000 0 13,000 0 25,000 12 Sub-total 680,156 153,382 526,774 35,000 130,000 2,000 24,000 0 49,000 11 South 0 Hiraan 329,811 69,113 260,698 28,000 89,000 0 12,000 0 4,000 5 Shabelle Dhexe 514,901 95,831 419,070 30,000 117,000 0 5,000 0 46,000 10 (Middle) Shabelle Hoose 850,651 172,714 677,937 35,000 212,000 35,000 21,000 0 0 7 (Lower) Bakool 310,627 61,438 249,189 12,000 86,000 12,000 22,000 0 0 11 Bay 620,562 126,813 493,749 37,000 146,000 0 31,000 0 0 5 Gedo 328,378 81,302 247,076 24,000 84,000 0 0 0 0 0 Juba Dhexe 238,877 54,739 184,138 12,000 57,000 12,000 9,000 0 0 9 (Middle) Juba Hoose 385,790 124,682 261,108 22,000 69,000 22,000 20,000 0 0 11 (Lower) Sub-total 3,579,597 786,632 2,792,965 200,000 860,000 81,000 120,000 0 50,000 7 Banadir 901,183 901,183 - 15,000 - 15,000 - 0 - 2 Grand Total 7,502,654 2,895,568 4,607,086 341,000 1,341,000 152,000 176,000 0 107,000 6

Assessed and Conngency Populaon in Crisis and Emergency Number affected % of Total populaon Distribuon of populaons in crisis

Assessed Urban populaon in Crisis and Emergency 152,000 2 14% Assessed Rural populaon in Crisis and Emergency 283,000 4 27% IDP in selements* (out of UNHCR 1.1million) to avoid double counng 615,000 8 59% Esmated Rural, Urban and IDP populaon in crisis 1,050,000 14 100% IPC CLASSIFICATION Distribuon of Populaons in Crisis by Livelihood

Current Esmated Total in Crisis & Populaon in Crisis Livelihood system Populaon by Stressed Crisis Emergency Emergency as% of Total Livelihood Zones Agro‐Pastoral 1,987,062 620,000 63,000 0 63,000 27 Fishing 17,779 0 0 0 0 0 Pastoral 2,136,657 586,000 53,000 7,000 60,000 26 Riverine 366,683 140,000 10,000 0 10,000 4 Destute pastoral 98,906 0 0 100,000 100,000 43 Grand Total 4,607,086 1,346,000 126,000 107,000 233,000 100 Projected

Esmated Total in Crisis & Populaon in Livelihood system Populaon by Crisis Emergency Emergency Crisis as% of Total Livelihood Zones

Agro‐Pastoral 1,987,062 615,000 115,000 0 115,000 41 Fishing 17,779 0 0 0 0 0 Pastoral 2,136,657 586,000 51,000 8,000 59,000 21

Riverine 366,683 140,000 10,000 0 10,000 4 Destute pastoral 98,906 0 0 99,000 99,000 35 Grand Total 4,607,086 1,341,000 176,000 107,000 283,000 100 IPC CLASSIFICATION Distribuon of Populaons in Crisis by Wealth Groups (Projected)

Total in Crisis Populaon in Rural Stressed Crisis Emergency & Emergency Crisis as% of Total

Poor 1,130,000 176,000 107,000 283,000 100 Middle 211,000 0 0 0 0 Beer‐off 0 0 0 0 0 Grand Total 1,341,000 176,000 107,000 283,000 100

Total in Crisis Populaon in Crisis Urban Stressed Crisis Emergency & Emergency as% of Total

Poor 341,000 152,000 0 152,000 100 Middle 0 0 0 0 0 Beer‐off 0 0 0 0 0 Grand Total 341,000 152,000 0 152,000 100 IPC CLASSIFICATION Progression of Populations in Crisis by Year (Projected)

increase/ decrease Jan-Jun '09 Jul-Dec '09 Jan-Jun '10 Jul-Dec '10 Jan-Jun '11 Jul-Dec '11 Apr-Jun '12 Aug-Dec '12 Jan-Jun '13 from last season

Urban 705,000 655,000 580,000 310,000 475,000 585,000 550,000 530,000 152,000 -71%

Rural 1,215,000 1,435,000 1,255,000 785,000 1,005,000 2,550,000 1,160,000 790,000 283,000 -64%

IDPs (UNHCR) 1,295,000 1,550,000 1,390,000 1,410,000 1,465,000 1,465,000 1,360,000 1,360,000 1,100,000 -19%

Adjusted IDP to avoid double 850,000 850,000 850,000 850,000 910,000 910,000 800,000 800,000 615,000 23% counting in Rural IPC

Total 2,770,000 2,940,000 2,685,000 1,945,000 2,390,000 4,045,000 2,510,000 2,120,000 1,050,000 -50% IPC CLASSIFICATION Progression of the Food Security Situaon Aug 2012‐ Jun 2013

IPC Map, Aug ‐ Dec 2012 IPC Map, Feb 1st 2013 IPC Map, Feb – Jun 2013 Key Messages

. The numbers of populaon in crisis (IPC Phase 3 and 4) in post Deyr 2012/13 reduced by over 50% from the post Gu 2012 (Feb‐Jun 2012) due to improved access and availability of food. In most areas poor food ulisaon (e.g. lack of safe water, feeding pracces for children, etc.) remains a major liming factor of food security

. In the projecon period up to June 2013, 1.05 million people are esmated in acute food insecurity IPC Phases 3 and 4; this indicates a slight deterioraon from the current situaon (Feb 1, 2013) of a total of 1.0 million people in crisis (IPC Phases 3 and 4) naonwide.

. 1.3mln people are also esmated in acute food insecurity IPC Phase 2 (Stressed), of which about 80% are in the South. Stressed phase (IPC Phase 2) implies that at least 20% of the populaon in the analysed area can meet food needs but is not able to cover some essenal non‐food needs and has reduced ability to invest in livelihoods

. Majority of IDP selements are in Emergency situaon due to high morbidity and limited food access; high malnutrion rates and elevated death rates in Alert to Crical (5 IDP selements, o/w 4 in the South‐Central) are evident in these selements

. A total of 215,000 (14.3% of 1.5m) children <5 are acutely malnourished, of which two‐thirds are in the South; Overall nutrion situaon is likely to remain unchanged across the country in the coming three months Key Messages Assumpon for Projecons (Feb‐Jun 2013)

. Gu rains are likely to be normal to below normal affecng marginal rain‐fed maize cropping in southern agropastoral areas of the country. . Limited access to water for livestock is likely in parts of northern regions such as Sool Plateau and parts of Nugal Valley during Jilaal dry season (Jan‐Mar) . Food at household level (milk and cereal stocks) as well as seasonal farm job opportunies for poor farmers will be available in the projecon period; . Cereal prices will follow a seasonal trend as a result of good Deyr harvest and ancipated supplies through humanitarian assistance and imports (port and cross‐border) . Insecurity will persist (although reduced) in South‐Central causing disrupons of food supply into the markets, liming humanitarian access and causing displacements . Food security classificaon is likely to remain unchanged between now and June 2013; But current projecon assumpon will be reviewed in March‐April based on updated informaon on climate performance; humanitarian intervenons; security condions Key messages Required Response

• Lifesaving responses to the populaon in Emergency is a priority • Protecng livelihoods and strengthening disaster risk reducon and migaon through: strengthen exisng public services and community based resources and assets that serve to protect vulnerable populaons from falling into crisis. • Building resilience of vulnerable poor households and addressing underlying causes of high malnutrion (lack of safe water and sanitaon, caring/ feeding pracces, etc.) to reduce the risks of food and nutrion insecurity www.fsnau.org