Information for Better Livelihoods
Post Deyr 2012/13 February 1st, 2013
Technical Partner Donors
Swiss Agency for Development and Coopera on SDC EUROPEAN COMMISSION FSNAU Post Deyr 2012/13 Assessment Overall Timeline
FSNAU/Partner Planning Meeting (Nairobi) November 28, 2012
Regional Planning Meetings (Field) December 17-18, 2012
Fieldwork December 19 – 28, 2012
Regional Analysis Workshops (Field) December 31, 2012 - January 4, 2013
All Team Analysis Workshops (Hargeysa) January 7 – 18, 2013
Vetting Meetings January 22 (Nut) & 28 (FS), 2013
Release of Results
Post-Deyr 2012/13 Presentation of Findings and February 1, 2013 Technical Release Regional Presentations in Somalia February 2013
Technical Series Reports February 21 (Nut) & 25 (FS), 2013 FSNAU Deyr 2012/13 Assessment Partner Par cipa on
Total Number of Partners Par cipa ng in Field Assessments and Analysis Workshop and Ve ng – Total‐133
Food Security Field Assessment – Total 61 Nutri on Field Assessment – Total 28 Na onal Ins tu ons 2 Local NGOs 3 Local NGOs 11 Interna onal NGOs 4 Interna onal NGOs 7 Ministries 16 Ministries 12 Local Authori es 3 FEWS NET 3 UN 2 UN 4 Enumerators 8 Focal Points 15
Analysis Workshop – Total 29 Nutri on Ve ng – Total 15 FEWS NET NAIROBI 4 Local NGOs 9 WFP 5 Interna onal NGOs 4 HADMA 2 UN 2 FAO Pales ne 1 FAO Regional 1 FSC 2 Government Focal Points (Somaliland and Puntland) 15 FSNAU Post Deyr 2012/13 Assessment
Food Security Assessment Access and Field Monitoring Loca ons Food Security Post‐Deyr 2012/13 Informa on Sources Food Security Assessment Interviews/ Secondary Data
FS Focus Group Discussions (Dec ‘12) FS HH Surveys (Nov‐Dec ‘12) Region Rural FGDs Urban FGD IDP FGD Region Urban IDP Se lement Bari 64 ‐ ‐ Bari 451 974 Nugal & North Mudug 60 ‐ ‐ Nugal & North Awdal/Galbeed 50 ‐ ‐ Mudug 938 1,418 Togdheer 31 ‐ ‐ Sool 41 ‐ ‐ Awdal/Galbeed Sanaag 39 ‐ ‐ 900 947 South Mudug 40 12 18 Togdher 451 490 Galgadud 62 18 143 Sool 425 ‐ Hiran 63 18 18 Sanaag 433 ‐ M. Shabelle 59 17 18 L. Shabelle 98 18 ‐ Banadir 450 750 Bay 60 18 18 4,048 4,579 Bakool 63 18 _ Gedo 85 18 18 Secondary Sources: M. Juba 59 18 ‐ • Satellite Imagery Data L. Juba 54 18 ‐ • SWALIM Land Cover and Land Use Total 928 173 233 • SWALIM/ FSNAU/ FEWS NET Rain Gauges • Monthly Market Price and Labor wage data • Rural Market Monitoring data • Port and Cross‐border trade Sta s cs • Livelihood baseline studies • UNHCR IDP popula on es mates Deyr 2012/13 Respondents by Gender
Urban Surveys: For meaningful gender results, . 581 males and 2,991 females. HHs have been grouped into three fundamental categories: . HHs categories‐Urban North: o 2,059 HHs dependent on men Households dependent on men o 1,021 HHs dependent on women or man for food or income to o 469 HHs dependent on both women and buy food. men Households dependent on IDP se lements: women or woman for food or . 3,068 HHs dependent on both men and income to buy food. women Households dependent on . 632 HHs dependent on women both woman and man for food or income to buy food. . 547 HHs dependent on men Nutri on Informa on Sources Deyr (Oct‐Dec) 2012
Region Rural livelihood surveys Urban livelihood IDP surveys Total No. conducted surveys conducted conducted of Surveys
Northwest, 9 7 7 23 northeast (W.Golis, E. Golis/NW, Agro‐p, (Awdal, W. Galbeed, (Hargeisa, Burao, Hawd, Sool plateau, Nugal valley, Togdheer, Sool, Berbera, Bossaso, E. Golis/NE, Coastal deeh/NE Sanaag, Bari, Nugal, Qardho, Garowe, Galkayo) Central 2 2 1 (Dusamareb/Guriel) 5 (Hawd, Addun) (Mudug, Galgadud) South 7 2 5 14 (Beletweyn District, Mataban, Bay, (Mog, Afgoye) (Mogadishu, Kismayo, Bakool pastoral, N. Gedo Pastora, Dolow, Dobley, Baidoa) agro‐past. and riverine) Total 18 11 13 42
42 Nutri on Surveys (based on WHZ, WHO GS 2006 ) Rapid MUAC assessments (8): Juba (3), South Gedo (3), Central coastal deeh (1), Cowpea belt (1) Health Center Monitoring (HIS): Collected from 130 health facili es in accessible regions in the period Jul‐Dec’12. Related Selec ve Feeding Centre Data: obtained from UNICEF, WFP and partner agencies Secondary Related Data (risk factors for deteriora on) • WHO & Somalia emergency weekly health updates, October‐January 2013) • Food security, displacements data. (Sources: FSNAU, OCHA and UNHCR bulle ns). CLIMATE Deyr 2012/13 Rainfall Performance
TAMSAT RFE Percent Anomaly (Oct‐Dec) Overall Statement: Deyr 2012 rains started earlier than normal (early Oct). Rainfall performance was mixed in terms of amount, temporal distribu on, and spa al coverage across the country. The Oct to Dec rainfall es mates compared to the Long Term Mean (1983‐ 2011) shows normal to above normal rainfall in most part of the country
Moderate Hays rains (Dec‐Jan) were received in most of the Coastal areas of Bari region and Guban pastoral excluding Zeylac district in December 2012; No Hays rains precipitated in January 2013. Rainfall performance was poor in parts of Sanag, Sool regions, and north Gedo and Lower Juba agropastoral; Dry spell reported in late Nov and early Dec in most of the North, Central, Hiran and Middle Shabelle regions;
Source : JRC TAMSAT Indian Ocean Tropical Cyclone Murjan reported in late October in Garowe and Eyl Districts. CLIMATE Vegeta on Condi ons in the Deyr 2012 Season
Overall Statement: NDVI eMODIS Anomaly, December 21‐30, 2012
Improved rangeland (pasture and browse) condi ons, as well as water resources in most parts of the country. This is due to the effects of moderate to good Deyr 2012/13 and the Gu 2012 rains. However, compared to their ten year (2001‐2010) average, rangeland resources are s ll significantly below average in Juba, upper Gedo, Sool, Sanaag, Awdal and Guban pastoral areas of Waqooyi Galbeed. Source: NOAA/CPC/FEWS NET CLIMATE FORECAST Hotter than Normal Dry Season (JFM) and Normal to Below Normal Long Rains (MAM)
1. Hotter than normal dry season expected across the region and especially the northern and eastern sector (+1o to +2oC) Northern Kenya, South Somalia, central and western Ethiopia.
2. Long rains season (Mar – May), raises concerns for normal to below rainfall performance over the eastern sector of the region, including parts of northeastern Kenya, southern Ethiopia and Somalia.
ECMWF’s forecast surface temp anomalies (mm): ECMWF forecast rainfall anomalies (mm): Mar Jan- Mar. 2013 - May 2013 CIVIL INSECURITY
Civil insecurity remains one of the key factors affecting the food security situation in many parts of Somalia. In spite of the increased control of the Federal Government/AMISOM in the South, armed confrontations, land mines, targeted killings still persist in most of the main towns of South- Central.
Key Events and Impacts: . Expansion of Somali Government /AMISOM controlled areas . Clan fighting and revenge killings in Central . Conflict b/w SL government and Khatumo group in the North (Huddun/ Sool) . Tensions over local government election results in Zeylac & Awdal (Dec ‘12) . Blockages in key towns in Bay, Bakool, Juba and Shabelle regions affecting trade and population movements . Improved trade and population movements in Mogadishu . Inflow of Somali refugees from neighboring (Kenya) and other countries . Humanitarian access constraints continued in South-Central
Most Likely Scenario for January-June 2013: . Increased government offensive in other parts of the South; restricted humanitarian access; continued disruption of trade and movements in conflict induced-areas MARKETS Trends in Exchange Rates
40,000 8,500 8,000 7,500 35,000 Baidoa Bossasso Galkayo Mogadishu Hargeisa 7,000 6,500 30,000 6,000 5,500 per US Dollar 25,000 5,000 SlSh per US Dollar
SoSh 4,500 20,000 4,000 Jun-13 Jun-14 Jun-15 Jun-16 Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16 Sep-13 Sep-14 Sep-15 Sep-16 Month Somali Shilling (SoSh): stable during second half of 2012; appreciated from Dec ’11, par cularly in Northeast (22%) Somaliland Shilling (SlSh): moderate deprecia on (15%) in value since Dec ‘11. MARKETS Imported Commodity Prices Compared to Exchange Rates
Import commodity prices: •Stable prices since July 2012 in the South; •Stable/modest decline in Northeast SoSh areas and Central due to rela vely stronger shilling •Stable prices except for vegetable oil in the SISh zone due to steady supply through Berbera Port.
Factors Affec ng Import Commodity Prices (July –Dec 2012) •Decreasing local food prices •Improved Mogadishu port ac vi es •Improving security •Stable SoSh MARKETS Imported Commodi es (Diesel Price)
Regional Trends in Diesel Prices (SOSH/SLSH) 60,000 8,000
7,000 50,000 6,000 40,000 5,000
30,000 4,000
3,000 20,000 Juba Valley Shabelle Valley NorthEast SorghumBelt 2,000 10,000 Central Banadir Price per Litre (SLSH) 1,000 Price per Litre (SoSH) NorthWest 0 0 Jun-13 Jun-14 Jun-16 Jun-15 Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-16 Mar-15 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-16 Sep-13 Sep-14 Sep-16 Dec-15 Month Sep-15
Comparison of Diesel Prices (Asia Dubai), Mogadishu and Bossaso MARKETS Imported Commodi es (Rice)
Regional Trends in Rice Prices (SOSH/SLSH) 60,000 9,000 Juba Valley Shabelle Valley NorthEast SorghumBelt 8,000 50,000 Central Banadir NorthWest 7,000 40,000 6,000 5,000 30,000 4,000 20,000 3,000
2,000 Price per Kg(SLSH) 10,000 Price per Kg (SoSH) 1,000 0 0 Jun-13 Jun-14 Jun-15 Jun-16 Mar-13 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-14 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16 Sep-13 Sep-14 Sep-15 Sep-16
Month
Comparison of Rice Prices (Bangkok FOB), Mogadishu and Bossaso MARKETS Imported Commodi es (Sugar Price)
Regional Trends in Sugar Prices (SOSH/SLSH) 60,000 8,000 7,000 50,000 6,000 40,000 5,000 30,000 4,000 3,000 20,000 Juba Valley Shabelle Valley NorthEast SorghumBelt
2,000 Price per Kg (SLSH) Central Banadir Price per Kg (SoSH) 10,000 NorthWest 1,000 0 0 Jun-13 Jun-15 Jun-16 Jun-14 Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-15 Dec-16 Sep-13 Sep-15 Sep-16 Dec-14 Sep-14 Month Comparison of Sugar Prices: Interna onal (ISO), Mogadishu and Bossaso MARKETS Imported Commodi es (Veg. Oil and Wheat Flour Price)
Regional Trends in Vegetable Oil Prices (SOSH/SLSH) 90,000 14,000 80,000 12,000 70,000 10,000 60,000 50,000 8,000 40,000 6,000 30,000 4,000 20,000 Juba Valley Shabelle Valley NorthEast
SorghumBelt Central Banadir Price per Litre (SLSH) 10,000 2,000 NorthWest Price per Litre (SoSH) 0 0 Jun-13 Jun-15 Jun-16 Jun-14 Mar-13 Mar-15 Mar-16 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-15 Dec-16 Sep-13 Sep-15 Sep-16 Mar-14 Dec-14 MonthSep-14
Regional Trends in Wheat Flour Prices (SOSH/SLSH) 50,000 10,000 45,000 Juba Valley Shabelle Valley NorthEast 9,000 40,000 SorghumBelt Central Banadir 8,000 NorthWest 35,000 7,000 30,000 6,000 25,000 5,000 20,000 4,000 15,000 3,000 10,000 2,000 Price per Kg (SLSH) 5,000 1,000 Price per Kg (SoSH) 0 0 Jun-13 Jun-14 Jun-15 Jun-16 Mar-13 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-14 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16 Sep-13 Sep-14 Sep-15 Sep-16 Month MARKETS Consumer Price Index
• Slight decline in CPI rates (7%) in SoSh regions. The CPI is stable in northwestern parts of the country. • Significant decrease (24%) in annual inflation rates in the SoSh areas; • Factors driving down the cost of living in South-Central: o Reduced local cereal (red sorghum) prices o Reduced/stable prices of imported food MARKETS Likely Developments (Jan‐June 2013)
• Staple cereal prices are expected to decline (seasonal trend) un l March 2013 owing to increased supply from the recent Deyr harvest; o Concerns: farm‐gate prices may not cover costs of produc on
• Rela ve stability across the country may sustain the strength of the SoSh, hence the stability in the price of food imports;
• An increase in cross border trade ac vi es is expected in light of the gradual improvements in the security situa on and road networks (end of rainy season). Rangeland Condi ons and Livestock Migra on
. Average to good rangeland condi ons (pasture and water) in most of the livelihoods except: o North: Sool Plateau of Sanaag and Nugaal Valley o South and Central: north Gedo, Coastal Deeh of Lower Shabelle and Lower Juba (poor) . Normal livestock migra on in most livelihoods except in Sool Plateau and Nugaal valley . Livestock migra on is to remain within normal range in the South even in the condi ons of below normal Gu (current forecast) o Livestock body condi on: Improved (average to good) across all the livelihoods, except in west Guban o Livestock prices: remained all me high and increasing trend o Produc on and reproduc on: Most of the livestock species are either in the gesta on or
lacta on period, except in west Guban and parts Good Camel Body condi on, Addun, North of Sool and Coastal Deeh (Bari and Central) Mudug, FSNAU, Dec’12 o Milk produc on: Average in most of the livelihoods. Excep ons are west Guban, Sool Plateau and parts of Coastal Deeh (Bari and Central regions) o Herd growth for the poor wealth: Increasing trends for all species but holding of small ruminants and ca le among the poor is s ll below baseline levels in most of the pastoral
livelihoods Poor sheep/goat Body condi on, Guban, FSNAU, Dec’12 Trends in Local Ca le Prices
Regional Average Monthly Prices Ca le (SoSh/SlSh) LIVESTOCK Regional Trend in Local Goat Prices
Regional Trends in Local Quality Goat Prices in the South (SOSH) SorghumBelt Shabelle Valley Juba Valley 1,600,000 1,400,000 1,200,000 1,000,000 800,000 600,000 400,000 200,000 0 Price per Head of Goat (SOSH) Jun-13 Jun-15 Jun-16 Jun-14 Mar-13 Mar-15 Mar-16 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-15 Dec-16 Sep-13 Sep-15 Sep-16 Mar-14 Dec-14 Sep-14
Trends in Local Quality Goat Prices in Northern and Central Regions
NE Central NW (SLSH) 1,600,000 400,000 1,400,000 350,000 1,200,000 300,000 1,000,000 250,000 800,000 200,000 600,000 150,000 400,000 100,000 200,000 50,000 0 0 Price per Head of Goat (SOSH) Price per Head of Goat (SLSH) Jun-13 Jun-15 Jun-16 Jun-14 Mar-13 Mar-15 Mar-16 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-15 Dec-16 Sep-13 Sep-15 Sep-16 Mar-14 Dec-14 Sep-14 LIVESTOCK Trends in Fresh Camel and Ca le Milk Prices
Monthly Trends in Fresh Camel Milk Prices (SoSh/SlSh) Monthly Trend in Fresh Ca le Milk Prices (SoSh/ SlSh)
60,000 7,000 60,000 7,000
6,000 6,000 50,000 50,000
5,000 5,000 40,000 40,000 4,000 4,000 30,000 30,000 3,000 3,000 SlSh per Litre SoSh per Litre SoSh per Litre 20,000 20,000 SlSh per Litre 2,000 2,000
10,000 10,000 1,000 1,000
0 0 0 0 Jun-13 Jun-15 Jun-16 Jun-14 Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16 Sep-13 Sep-14 Sep-15 Sep-16 Jun-13 Jun-14 Jun-15 Jun-16 Mar-13 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-14 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-15 Dec-16 Sep-13 Sep-15 Sep-16 Dec-14 Sep-14 Month Month
SorghumBelt Juba Valley Shabelle Valley SorghumBelt Juba Valley Shabelle Valley Central NE NW Central NW Trends in 2012 Livestock Exports Through Berbera & Bossaso
Berbera & Bossaso: Livestock Exports (Heads) Total Annual Livestock Exports and Export Quality Goat Prices (US$)
July-Dec Livestock Exports Jan-June Livestock Exports 1,900 80 1,800 5-year Average (2007-2011) 1,700 70 6,000,000 1,600 1,500 1,400 60 5,000,000 Thousands 1,300 1,200 50 1,100 4,000,000 1,000 Camel Exports 900 Cattle Exports 40 800 Shoats Exports Hargesia Price 700 3,000,000 Galkayo Price 30 600 Bossaso Price 500 Price Per Head (US$) Burao Price 20 Number of Heads 400 2,000,000 300 200 10 100 1,000,000
Livestock Exports (Heads) 0 0
0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Month AGRICULTURE Trends in Cereal Produc on (South and Northwest)
Deyr Cereal Produc on Trends in Southern Somalia
200,000 Maize Sorghum PWA 5 year Avrg 150,000 . South: Third highest Deyr
100,000 cereal produc on since MT 1995(144% of Deyr avg 50,000 for 1995‐2011); sorghum
0 and maize produc on of Annual Cereal Produc on Trends in Southern Somalia 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 about 143,000MT 450,000 400,000 Deyr Gu Overall PWA 5 year Avrg . Red sorghum represents 350,000 300,000 over two‐thirds of the 250,000
MT 200,000 total produc on 150,000 100,000 50,000 0 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 . Northwest AP: Good Gu/ Cereal Produc on Trends in Northwest Karan (73,000MT) 80,000 Maize Sorghum Pet Average produc on of cereals 60,000 (104% of PET Avg:
40,000 2010‐2011); MT 20,000 . White sorghum accounts 0 for 88% of the total cereal 2010 2011 2012 produc on AGRICULTURE Deyr 2012/13 Cereal Produc on in Southern Somalia
Deyr 2012 Produc on in MT Deyr 2012 as % of Deyr 2012 as % of Deyr 2012 as % of Regions Deyr 5YR average Deyr 2011 Maize Sorghum Total Cereal (1995‐2011) (2007‐2011)
Bakool 1,000 8,000 9,000 78% 359% 222% Bay 6,000 51,000 57,000 93% 172% 145% Gedo 2,000 4,000 6,000 82% 107% 96% Hiran 2,000 6,000 8,000 128% 123% 240% Juba Dhexe 4,000 3,000 7,000 107% 178% 154% (Middle) Juba Hoose 2,000 0 2,000 220% 171% 302% (Lower) Shabelle Dhexe 10,000 7,000 17,000 70% 141% 157% (Middle) Shabelle Hoose 20,000 17,000 37,000 55% 112% 145% (Lower) Deyr 2011Total 47,000 96,000 143,000 77% 146% 151%
Deyr Off‐Season Maize: March ‐ April 2013 Regions Maize (MT) Total Cereal (MT) 1000 Gedo 1000
Total 1000 1000 AGRICULTURE Cereal Produc on in Northwest
Gu‐Karan Cereal Produc on Es mates in Somaliland (North West)
Gu‐Karan 2012 Produc on in MT Gu‐Karan Gu‐Karan Gu‐Karan 2012 as % of 2012 as % of 2012 as % of Regions Gu‐Karan 5 year Gu‐Karan Maize Sorghum Total Cereal PWA average 2011 (1998‐2011) (2007‐2011)
Awdal 1,000 15,000 17,000 121% 311% 183% Togdheer 0 4,000 4,000 572% 494% 279% Woqooyi 6,000 45,000 52,000 Galbeed 97% 272% 185%
Gu‐Karan 2012 Total 7,000 64,000 73,000 107% 288% 188% AGRICULTURE Regional Cereal (Maize and Sorghum) Contribu ons in Southern Somalia
Deyr 2012/13 Cereal Produc on by Region Maize Produc on Deyr 2012/13 by Region
Shabelle Dhexe (middle) 21% Shabelle lower Juba Juba (hoose) Hoose(lower) Shabelle Dhexe Hoose(lower 43% 2% (middle) ) Juba 12% 5% Dhexe(Middle) Shabelle lower 5% (hoose) 26% Hiraan Juba Bakool 5% Dhexe(Middl 2% e) Hiraan Gedo Gedo Bay 9% 4% 4% 4% 12%
Sorghum Produc on Deyr 2012/13 by Region Bay 40% Bay Gedo Bakool Hiraan 54% 4% 6% 6% Juba Dhexe(Middle ) 3%
Juba Hoose(lower) 0%
Bakool 8% Shabelle Shabelle Dhexe lower (hoose) (middle) 18% 7% AGRICULTURE Deyr 2012/13 Good Sorghum Crops
Good Sorghum Crop. Bulo Adde, Qansah Dheere, Good Sorghum Crop Harvest. Dila, Baki, Awdal. Bay. FSNAU, Dec. 2012 FSNAU, Nov. 2012
Good Sorghum Crops. Koo n, Wanlaweyn, Good Maize Crop. Suryo, Garboharey, Gedo. L. Shabelle, FSNAU, Dec. 2012 FSNAU, Dec. 2012 AGRICULTURE Deyr 2012/13 Other Crop Produc on Es mates in Somalia
Estimated 51,000MT of other crops:
. Rice (1,500MT) – Middle Shabelle
. Cowpea (15,000MT) – Central (38%); Bay (24%); Lower Shabelle (19%); the rest (M. Shabelle, Jubas, Bakool)
Good Groundnut Crop. Hagarkaa, Baidoa, . Sesame (23,000MT) – L. Shabelle (46%); M. Juba Bay. FSNAU, Dec. 2012 (35%); the rest (Bay, L. Juba, M. Shabelle)
. Groundnut (2,000MT) – Bay
. Onions (7,500MT) - Hiran (94%); Gedo (6%)
. Watermelon (2,000MT) – Hiran (84%); Gedo (16%) Good Sesame Crop. Buale, M. Juba, FSNAU, Dec. 2012 AGRICULTURE Regional Trends in Cereal Prices and Agriculture Daily Rate
Trends in White Maize Prices [Shabelle & Juba Riverine] Trends in White Sorghum Prices [North West]
Jamame (White Maize 1kg) Jilib (White Maize 1kg) Hargeisa (White Sorghum 1kg) Borama (White Sorghum 1kg) Qorioley (White Maize 1kg) Jowhar (White Maize 1kg) Togwajale (White Sorghum 1kg) Burao (White Sorghum 1kg) 25,000 8,000 7,000 20,000 6,000 15,000 5,000 10,000 4,000 3,000 5,000 Price Per Kg (SLSH) Price per Kg (SOSH) 2,000 0 1,000 0 Jun‐15 Jun‐13 Jun‐14 Jun‐16 Sep‐13 Sep‐14 Sep‐15 Sep‐16 Dec‐15 Dec‐12 Dec‐13 Dec‐14 Dec‐16 Mar‐13 Mar‐14 Mar‐15 Mar‐16 Month Jun‐15 Jun‐13 Jun‐14 Jun‐16 Sep‐13 Sep‐14 Sep‐15 Sep‐16 Dec‐12 Dec‐13 Dec‐14 Dec‐15 Dec‐16 Mar‐13 Mar‐14 Month Mar‐15 Mar‐16
Trends in Red Sorghum Price [Sorghum Belt] Trends in Agriculture Daily Labor Rate [Southern regions] Bardera (Red Sorghum 1 kg) Baidoa ( Red Sorghum 1 kg) 120000 Huddur ( Red Sorghum 1 kg) Beletweyne (White Sorghum 1kg) SorghumBelt Juba Valley Shabelle Valley 30,000 100000 25,000 80000 20,000 60000
15,000 SoSh 40000 10,000 20000 5,000
Price per Kg (SOSH) 0 0 Jun-13 Jun-14 Jun-15 Jun-16 Mar-13 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-14 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-15 Dec-16 Sep-13 Sep-15 Sep-16 Dec-14 Sep-14 Month Jun‐13 Jun‐14 Jun‐15 Jun‐16 Sep‐15 Sep‐13 Sep‐14 Sep‐16 Dec‐12 Dec‐13 Dec‐14 Dec‐15 Dec‐16 Mar‐15 Mar‐13 Mar‐14 Mar‐16 Month Projected Cereal Availability: 2013 Preliminary Cereal Balance Sheet (CBS) in ‘000’MT
. Total cereal requirement in Somalia is estimated at 1 million tons based on 135kg per capita food needs 81 food aid supply (250) . Current CBS is based on Deyr 2012/13, 296 commercial Gu-Karan 2012 harvests in NW and import supply projections for Gu 2013 production (5yr domes c avg), imports (3-yr avg), and food produc on assistance (WFP plan for 2013). 414 deficit . The total deficit of 21% in Jan-Dec 2013
. Current estimate does not include all planned food assistance for Somalia
33 NUTRITION SECTOR Global, WHO GS, WHZ<‐2z scores and/or Oedema, (GAM) & Severe Acute Malnutri on, WHO GS, WHZ & <‐3 and/or Oedema (SAM), Deyr (Oct‐Dec) 2012
30
15
0 % acutely malnourished Dolo IDPs Burao IDPs BakoolPast Sool Urban E. Golis/NE Baidoa IDPs Dobley IDPs Hawd (NW) E. Golis/NW Sool Plateau Nugal Valley Qardho IDPs Nugal Urban Garowe IDPs Afgoye Town Galkayo IDPs Berbera IDPs Bossaso IDPs Awdal Urban Kismayo IDPs Hargeisa IDPs Sanaag Urban Mudug Urban N. Gedo Agro‐p W. Golis/Guban Mogadishu IDPs Togdheer Urban N. Gedo riverine Coastal deeh/NE N. Gedo Pastoral Bay Agropastoral Mogadishu Town Mataban District Hawd/NE,Central Galgaduud Urban W. Galbeed Urban Addun/NE, Central Beletweyne District Guriel/DusamarebIDP Agropastoralists of NW
North & Central Regions Southern Regions
GAM SAM
1. North/Central: GAM is 10 – 14.9% in all rural and urban livelihoods except for W. Golis >15% (the latter is consistent with national and Deyr median rate of 16.2% and 15.7%, respectively for 2001-2011); Sool Plateau, Urban (Sool, Togdheer) – 5-9.9%. 2. IDPs: GAM rates >15% except for Hargeisa, Garowe and Baidoa (10-14.9%). Mogadishu IDP has deteriorated to 16% from 9.6%. 3. South: GAM is above 15% in most of the assessed rural South (except for Juba pastoral, Beletweyne, Mataban, Mogadishu which is lower). This is consistent with Deyr median rate. 4. Gender: Only in 2 of the 42 surveys, (Hawd/NE-Central and Bossaso IDPs) there is statistically significant difference between GAM and child Sex and Age. More boys tend to be malnourished compared to girls. In Bossaso IDPs, younger children (<24 months) are significantly more malnourished, while in Hawd, it is the older children (>24 mths). NUTRITION SECTOR Morbidity (%) based on 2 week recall period, October‐December 2012
70
60
50
40 % 30
20
10
0 Hawd Addun Addun Dolo IDPs Hawd/NW Burao IDPs Baidoa IDPs Dobley IDPs Berbera IDP Qardho IDPs Hargeisa IDP Garowe IDPs Nugal Valley Nugal Valley Galkayo IDPs Berbera IDPs Bossaso IDPs Sool Plateau Kismayo IDPs East Golis/NE Hargeisa IDPs Afgoye Town East Golis/NW Bakool Pastoral Mogadishu IDPs Dusamareb IDPs Mataban District N. Gedo pastoral N. Gedo Riverine Bay Agropastoral Coastal Deeh/NE Mogadishu Town West Golis/Guban Beletweyne District Agro‐Pastoral of NW N. Gedo Agropastoral
North Central South IDPs
. Childhood diseases assessed by recall: Suspected malaria, pneumonia, diarrhea and measles . Across the surveyed population groups, reported morbidity amongst at least 20% of the assessed children, except for East Golis/NW, which is 16% . Morbidity was highest in Beletweyne (53.2%), Mataban (50.3%), N. Gedo pastoral (52.5%), Mogadishu IDPs (47.4%) and Bossaso IDPs (46.6%). NUTRITION SECTOR Seasonal Trends of Morbidity, Diarrhea and GAM, 2001‐2012
Assessed Somali popula ons, 2001‐2012
Overall morbidity Diarrhoea GAM
70.0% 50.0% 30.0% 10.0% ‐10.0% Gu GU GU GU GU GU GU GU GU GU GU Deyr Deyr Deyr Deyr Deyr Deyr Deyr Deyr Deyr Deyr Deyr Jilaal Jilaal Jilaal Jilaal Jilaal Jilaal Hagaa Hagaa Hagaa Hagaa Hagaa Hagaa Hagaa Hagaa
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Bay Region, 2002‐2012 Togdher Region, 2003‐2012 M. & L. Juba Regions, 2003‐2012 70.0% GAM Morbidity Diarrhoea 70.0% GAM Morbidity Diarrhoea 60.0% GAM Morbidity Diarrhoea 70.0% 60.0% 60.0% 50.0% 50.0% 50.0% 40.0% 40.0% 40.0% 30.0% 30.0% 30.0% 20.0% 20.0% 20.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Gu Gu Gu Gu Gu ‐10.0% Gu Gu Gu Deyr Deyr Deyr Deyr Jilaal Deyr Deyr Deyr Deyr Deyr
Hagaa Hagaa Gu Gu Gu Gu Deyr Gu Deyr Gu Deyr Deyr Gu Deyr Gu DEyr Hagaa Hagaa
2003 2006 2007 2009 2010 2011 2012 2002 2003 2006 2007 2009 2011 2012 2003 2004 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
• Meta-data analysis (2001-2011) indicates significant association between reported morbidity &GAM (RR=1.37) • Diarrhea posed the highest risk (RR=1.43) NUTRITION SECTOR Retrospec ve (90 days) crude (CDR) and the under five (U5DR) per 10,000 per day, Deyr (Oct‐Dec) 2012
3.5 CDR U5DR 3 2.5 2 1.5 1 0.5 Death rate/10,000/day 0 Sool0712 Dolo IDPs BayAgrop Burao IDPs BakoolPast Nugal0712 Baidoa IDPs Dobley IDPs Hawd (NW) Qardho IDPs Garowe IDPs Afgoye Town Galkayo IDPs Berbera IDPs Bossaso IDPs Kismayo IDPs East Golis/NE Hargeisa IDPs WGolis/Guban Mogadishu IDPs Coastal deeh/NE EGolis0712 (NW) Mogadishu Town NW Agropastoral Mataban District Hawd/NE,Central Addun/NE, Central Beletweyne District Guriel/DusamarebIDP
NW/NE/Central Regions Southern Regions
North: South: CDR < 0.5 (Acceptable situation based CDR is generally within Alert level (0.5-0.9), on UNICEF 2005 classification) in all and below 0.92, the median for South for assessed population groups except, 2007-2011, except for Dolo IDPs (1.27) - Qardho and Guriel IDPs (Alert - 0.5 and Serious & Dobley IDPs (1.92) - Critical. Main cause of deaths (reported) is AWD and 0.85 respectively). suspected pneumonia. NUTRITION SECTOR Nutrition Situation Estimates, January 2013
• GAM Rates: Improvements from Very Cri cal levels from July to December 2012 among pastoralists of W. Golis/Guban (Cri cal) and Nugal Valley (Serious), and agropastoralists of Bay (Cri cal). Deteriora on in Mataban (Hiran) to Very Cri cal.
• SAM Rates: Improvements to, or sustained Acceptable levels (<2.5%) except in Hawd (NW), Addun (Central) ‐Alert (3.0‐3.1), N. Gedo agro‐pastoralists (3.8), Serious, Beletweyne (4.9), Cri cal, and Mataban (7.4), Very Cri cal. IDPs in Dolo (5.4), Dobley (5.1), Berbera (6.6) and Qardho (7.9) in Cri cal –Very Cri cal levels.
• Death rates: Crude (per 10,000 per day) are below emergency level of 2 across Somalia; U5 (per 10,000 per day) are below emergency level of 4 across Somalia. NUTRITION SECTOR Es mated cases of acutely malnourished children (WHZ – WHO GS)
National trends in estimated proportion acutely malnourished under five boys & girls (Aug ‘11- Jan’13) National level August 2011 January 2012 August 2012 January 2013 (1.5 million U5 year old boys & girls) Total acutely malnourished 450,000 (30%) 323,000 (22%) 236,000 (16%) 215,000 (14.5%) Total severely malnourished 190,000 (13%) 93,000 (6%) 54,000 (3.5%) 46,000 (3.1%)
* Nutri on surveys conducted: 60 (Aug’11), 60 (Jan’12), 46 (Aug’12) and 42 (Jan’13). Median GAM levels (2001‐2011) of season used to es mate numbers acutely malnourished where surveys are not conducted.
Deyr 2012 total caseloads of malnourished by region 20.0 15.0 12.2 10.8 8.0 7.6 10.0 7.3 7.0 5.6 5.0 4.7 4.6 4.4 4.0 4.0 3.3 5.0 3.0 2.7 1.5 1.3
cases 0.0 Bay Bari Sool Gedo Hiran Nugal Awdal Propor on of na onal Bakool Sanaag Mudug Lower Middle Togdher Banadir Shabelle Shabelle Galbeed Galgadud Woqooye Lower Juba Middle Juba % acutely malnourished % severely malnourished NUTRITION SECTOR Nutri on Situa on Es mates, August 2012 & January 2013, and outlook, February‐April 2013 August 2012 January 2013 February‐April 2013 Outlook
The nutri on situa on is likely to remain the same across the country in the coming three months except for: . Sool Plateau: could deteriorate to Serious phase, consistent with worrying food security situa on. and seasonal levels . Bakool, Hiran region, North Gedo regions are likely to be in Cri cal phase consistent with seasonal levels . Shabelle region are likely to be within median levels, in Serious phase
*Current situa on es mates inferred from Oct‐Dec 2012 nutri on assessments findings; Nutri on situa on outlook, Feb‐Apr 2013 inferred from current es mates/median seasonal rates (2001‐2011), alongside with historical disease pa erns and food security trends for February – April 2013 period) INTEGRATED ANALYSIS OF LIVELIHOODS
41 RURAL LIVELIHOODS
Regional Trends in Terms of Trade: Rice to Goat • Improved milk availability among most pastoral 100 Central (Red Rice) NE(Red Rice) NW (Red Rice) households for consump on and sales 90 80 70 • Significantly improved Terms of Trade between 60 50 40 local quality goat and cereals due to low cereal 30
Kg per Head 20 prices and excep onally high goat prices; 10 0 • Increased livestock holding among the poor in Jun-13 Jun-15 Jun-16 Jun-14 Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-15 Dec-16 Sep-13 Sep-15 Sep-16 Dec-14 most livelihoods BUT s ll below the baseline Sep-14 levels. Regional Trend in Terms of Trade: Cereal to Goat
• In most pastoral areas in the North poor 350 SorghumBelt (Red Sorghum) Juba Valley (White Maize) households can meet food needs although some 300 Shabelle Valley(White Maize) have small livelihood protec on deficit, i.e. cannot 250 meet all basic needs 200 150 • Food access is limited in Guban and parts of 100 Kg per Head Coastal Deeh of North and Central due to 50 0 successive poor rains leading to: Jun-13 Jun-15 Jun-16 Jun-14 Mar-13 Mar-15 Mar-16 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-15 Dec-16 Sep-13 Sep-15 Sep-16 Mar-14 Dec-14 o Below average to poor livestock condi on Sep-14 o Limited livestock asset holding RURAL LIVELIHOODS Deyr 2012/13 Photos
Good Cattle Good Body Condition, Hagar, Lower Average Sh/goats, Dhusamareb, Galgadud region, FSNAU, Juba, FSNAU, Dec. 2012 Dec. 2012
Average Camel Body Condition, Garbahaarey, Gedo, Poor Body Condition, Guban, Zeylac, FSNAU, Dec. 2012 Dec. 2012 RURAL LIVELIHOODS Purchasing Power
Sorghum Belt-Trends in TOT Labour to Cereal • Crop dependent poor households 30 in the agropastoral areas of Lower Bardera (Red Sorghum 1 kg) Baidoa ( Red Sorghum 1 kg) 25 Huddur ( Red Sorghum 1 kg) Beletweyne (White Sorghum 1kg) Juba have about 1‐2 months 20 supply of cereal stock; 5‐6 months in L. Shabelle and Bay; while the 15 rest 3‐4 months; 10 5 Kg per Daily Labour Wage • Labour wages of the farming 0
communi es increased in Jun‐13 Jun‐14 Jun‐15 Jun‐16 Sep‐15 Sep‐13 Sep‐14 Sep‐16 Dec‐15 Dec‐12 Dec‐13 Dec‐14 Dec‐16 Mar‐15 Mar‐13 Mar‐14 Mar‐16 December 2012 compared to July Month 2012 and year ago (Dec’11) in Shabelle & Juba Riverine‐TOT Labour to Cereal
most of southern agricultural 40 Jamame (White Maize 1kg) areas; 35 30 Jilib (White Maize 1kg) 25 Qorioley (White Maize 1kg) • ToT daily labour wage/cereal is 20 Jowhar (White Maize 1kg) favorable and higher than in July 15 10 2012 and the 5‐years average 5 (2007‐2011) 0 Kg per Daily Labour Wage Jun‐13 Jun‐14 Jun‐15 Jun‐16 Sep‐15 Sep‐13 Sep‐14 Sep‐16 Dec‐15 Dec‐12 Dec‐13 Dec‐14 Dec‐16 Mar‐13 Mar‐14 Mar‐15 Mar‐16 Month RURAL LIVELIHOODS Food security and livelihoods outcome analysis
Fig 2: Sool Plateau Outcome Analysis- Poor Households Fig 4: Addun Outcome Analysis-Poor Households Non Cyclone Affected Areas 50,000.00 30,000.00
40,000.00 25,000.00
20,000.00 30,000.00 15,000.00 20,000.00 10,000.00 Cash income
(Nominal-000)SoSH 10,000.00 5,000.00
0.00 0.00 Baseline year Current year Baseline year Current year Cash Income (Nominal‐000) SoSH food aid/safety nets self‐employment food aid/safety nets self‐employment #REF! #REF! crop sales livestock product sales livestock product sales milk/meat milk/meat Survival deficit Survival Deficit Livelihoods Protec on Deficit Livelihoods protec on deficit
Fig 5: Dawo Pastoral Outcome Analysis-Poor Households Fig 6: Nugal Valley Outcome Analysis-Poor Households
70,000.00 70,000.00
60,000.00 60,000.00
50,000.00 50,000.00
40,000.00 40,000.00
30,000.00 30,000.00
20,000.00 20,000.00
10,000.00 10,000.00 Cash Income (Nominal-000) SoSH
Cash Income (Nominal-000)SoSH 0.00 0.00 Baseline year Current year Baseline year Current year food aid/safety nets self‐employment food aid/safety nets self‐employment crop sales livestock product sales crop sales livestock product sales RURAL LIVELIHOODS Food security and livelihoods outcome analysis
Fig 5: Dawo Pastoral Outcome Analysis-Poor Households Fig 6: Nugal Valley Outcome Analysis-Poor Households
70,000.00 70,000.00 60,000.00 60,000.00
50,000.00 50,000.00
40,000.00 40,000.00
30,000.00 30,000.00
20,000.00 20,000.00
10,000.00 10,000.00
0.00 0.00 Cash Income (Nominal-000)SoSH Baseline year Current year Cash Income (Nominal-000) SoSH Baseline year Current year
food aid/safety nets self‐employment food aid/safety nets self‐employment crop sales livestock product sales
Fig 7: Hawd Pastoral Outcome Analysis-Poor Households Fig 8:Northwest Agropastoral Outcome Analysis- Poor Households
80,000.00 15,000.00 70,000.00 60,000.00
50,000.00 10,000.00 40,000.00 30,000.00
20,000.00 5,000.00 10,000.00 0.00 Cash Income (Nominal-000)SoSH Baseline year Current year 0.00
food aid/safety nets self‐employment Cash Income (Nominal-000)SoSH milk/meat Baseline year livestock product sales Current year crop sales livestock product sales crops crop sales milk/meat Survival Deficit livestock sales ag.labour self‐employment food aid/safety nets RURAL LIVELIHOODS Food security and livelihoods outcome analysis
Fig 9: Agropastoral High potetnial Outcome Analysis-Poor Households Fig 10: Agropastoral low potential Outcome Analysis- Poor Households
7,000.00 14,000.00
6,000.00 12,000.00
5,000.00 10,000.00
4,000.00 8,000.00
3,000.00 6,000.00
2,000.00 4,000.00
1,000.00 2,000.00
0.00 0.00 Cash Income (Nominal-000) SoSH Baseline year Current year Baseline year Current year Cash Income (Nominal-000) SoSH milk/meat livestock product sales milk/meat livestock product sales crops crop sales crops crop sales livestock sales ag.labour livestock sales ag.labour self‐employment food aid/safety nets self‐employment food aid/safety nets Survival Deficit Livelihoods Protec on Deficit
Fig 11: Bakol Agropastoral Outcome Analysis-Poor Households Fig 12: Togdher Agropastoral Outcome Analysis – Poor Household
7,000.00
6,000.00
5,000.00
4,000.00
3,000.00
2,000.00
1,000.00
0.00 Baseline year Current year Cash income (Nominal-000) SoSH milk/meat livestock product sales crops crop sales livestock sales ag.labour self‐employment food aid/safety nets Survival Deficit Livelihoods Protec on Deficit RURAL LIVELIHOODS Food security and livelihoods outcome analysis
Fig 13: Southern Inland Pastoral Outcome Analysis- Poor Househlolds
18,000.00
16,000.00
14,000.00
12,000.00
10,000.00
8,000.00
6,000.00
4,000.00 Cash Income (Nominal-000) SoSH
2,000.00
0.00 Baseline year Current year
food aid/safety nets self‐employment #REF! livestock product sales milk/meat Survival Deficit Livelihoods Protec on Deficit URBAN LIVELIHOODS Food Consump on
. Food Consump on Score (FCS): Improving North & Banaadir: Food Consump on 120% food consump on trend in the North and acceptable borderline poor 100% Banadir (less 20% of people with poor FCS) 80% since Gu 2012; 60% o Poor to borderline food consump on in most 40% 20% of the Women Dependent HHs (WDH); 0%
. Coping strategy index (CSI): Stable to decreasing from Gu 2012 in most regions but increased slightly in Banadir; o Out of the ≤10% of households adop ng severe coping strategies WDH form the majority
. Livelihood change: increased produc ve assets from last Gu in both WD and MDH; no asset sales reported across the country; people are mostly employing insurance coping strategies URBAN LIVELIHOODS Contribu ng Factors: Food Access and Availability
. Food available in most of the urban markets (local produc on, imports and humanitarian assistance); . Food access: Food is mainly obtained through cash purchase followed by credit; o ≥80% of the urban households in the North and Banadir have one income source, while 1‐3 sources in the South‐ Central o ToT (labour wage to cereal) is higher than 5Yr Avg (2007‐2011); o Con nued decline in the cost of the Minimum Basket in most regions (below Gu and Deyr 2012 levels) Internally Displaced Persons in Se lements (IDP) Food Security Outcomes
High proportion of IDPs have poor food consumption; 34-58% in NW North & Banaadir: Poor Food Consump on and 44-74% in the NE 80% 70% Low asset diversity among the 60% 50% IDPs; mostly one asset type per 40% household: either a wheelbarrow or 30% % of households a mobile phone or a radio or skilled 20% 10% work tools 0%
Low diversity of income sources: mostly one income sources per household; exception is Baidoa (3 income sources - self-employment, casual labour and social support) Internally Displaced Persons in Se lements (IDP) IPC: Contribu ng Factors
High food expenditure among the IDPs with limited ability to meet non‐food expenditures (78‐80% of expenditure) IDP: Food Expenditure (%) 80%
78%
Main sources of income: either of casual 76% labour, self‐employment; pe y trade; 74% skilled labour (North and Banaadir) 72%
% food expenditure 70% High dependency on loans for food in 68% most of assessed IDPs – increased from 66% July 2012
Cri cal nutri on situa on in most IDP se lements assessed except Hargeisa, Garowe, Baidoa (Serious) Current Food Security Phase Classifica ons
Summary Results IPC Classifica on Rural, Urban & IDP popula on in crisis (Current)
Total in UNDP 2005 UNDP 2005 UNDP 2005 Crisis and Urban in Rural in Urban in Urban in Rural in Region Total Urban Rural Rural in Crisis Emergency Stressed Stressed Crisis Emergency Emergency Population Population Population as % of Total population North Awdal 305,455 110,942 194,513 7,000 45,000 0 12,000 0 0 4 Woqooyi Galbeed 700,345 490,432 209,913 22,000 48,000 32,000 4,000 0 0 5 Togdheer 402,295 123,402 278,893 22,000 75,000 0 1,000 0 0 0 Sanaag 270,367 56,079 214,288 13,000 65,000 5,000 7,000 0 7,000 7 Sool 150,277 39,134 111,143 5,000 37,000 0 6,000 0 0 4 Bari 367,638 179,633 188,005 16,000 56,000 14,000 0 0 0 4 Nugaal 145,341 54,749 90,592 6,000 25,000 3,000 2,000 0 1,000 4 Sub-total 2,341,718 1,054,371 1,287,347 91,000 351,000 54,000 32,000 0 8,000 4 Central Mudug 350,099 94,405 255,694 13,000 63,000 2,000 11,000 0 24,000 11 Galgaduud 330,057 58,977 271,080 22,000 67,000 0 13,000 0 25,000 12 Sub-total 680,156 153,382 526,774 35,000 130,000 2,000 24,000 0 49,000 11 South 0 Hiraan 329,811 69,113 260,698 28,000 89,000 0 12,000 0 4,000 5 Shabelle Dhexe 514,901 95,831 419,070 30,000 117,000 0 5,000 0 46,000 10 (Middle) Shabelle Hoose 850,651 172,714 677,937 35,000 186,000 35,000 0 0 0 4 (Lower) Bakool 310,627 61,438 249,189 12,000 96,000 12,000 13,000 0 0 8 Bay 620,562 126,813 493,749 37,000 162,000 0 16,000 0 0 3 Gedo 328,378 81,302 247,076 24,000 84,000 0 0 0 0 0 Juba Dhexe 238,877 54,739 184,138 12,000 58,000 12,000 8,000 0 0 8 (Middle) Juba Hoose 385,790 124,682 261,108 22,000 73,000 22,000 16,000 0 0 10 (Lower) Sub-total 3,579,597 786,632 2,792,965 200,000 865,000 81,000 70,000 0 50,000 6 Banadir 901,183 901,183 - 15,000 - 15,000 - 0 - 2 Grand Total 7,502,654 2,895,568 4,607,086 341,000 1,346,000 152,000 126,000 0 107,000 5
Assessed and Con ngency Popula on in Crisis and Emergency Number affected % of Total popula on Distribu on of popula ons in crisis
Assessed Urban popula on in Crisis and Emergency 152,000 2 15% Assessed Rural popula on in Crisis and Emergency 233,000 3 23% IDP in se lements* (out of UNHCR 1.1 million) to avoid double coun ng 615,000 8 62% Es mated Rural, Urban and IDP popula on in crisis 1,000,000 13 100% IPC CLASSIFICATION Rural, Urban & IDP Popula on in Crisis (Projected)
Total in Crisis UNDP 2005 UNDP 2005 UNDP 2005 and Urban in Rural in Urban in Rural in Region Total Urban Rural Urban in Crisis Rural in Crisis Emergency Stressed Stressed Emergency Emergency Population Population Population as % of Total population North Awdal 305,455 110,942 194,513 7,000 45,000 0 12,000 0 0 4 Woqooyi Galbeed 700,345 490,432 209,913 22,000 48,000 32,000 4,000 0 0 5 Togdheer 402,295 123,402 278,893 22,000 75,000 0 1,000 0 0 0 Sanaag 270,367 56,079 214,288 13,000 65,000 5,000 7,000 0 7,000 7 Sool 150,277 39,134 111,143 5,000 37,000 0 6,000 0 0 4 Bari 367,638 179,633 188,005 16,000 56,000 14,000 0 0 0 4 Nugaal 145,341 54,749 90,592 6,000 25,000 3,000 2,000 0 1,000 4 Sub-total 2,341,718 1,054,371 1,287,347 91,000 351,000 54,000 32,000 0 8,000 4 Central Mudug 350,099 94,405 255,694 13,000 63,000 2,000 11,000 0 24,000 11 Galgaduud 330,057 58,977 271,080 22,000 67,000 0 13,000 0 25,000 12 Sub-total 680,156 153,382 526,774 35,000 130,000 2,000 24,000 0 49,000 11 South 0 Hiraan 329,811 69,113 260,698 28,000 89,000 0 12,000 0 4,000 5 Shabelle Dhexe 514,901 95,831 419,070 30,000 117,000 0 5,000 0 46,000 10 (Middle) Shabelle Hoose 850,651 172,714 677,937 35,000 212,000 35,000 21,000 0 0 7 (Lower) Bakool 310,627 61,438 249,189 12,000 86,000 12,000 22,000 0 0 11 Bay 620,562 126,813 493,749 37,000 146,000 0 31,000 0 0 5 Gedo 328,378 81,302 247,076 24,000 84,000 0 0 0 0 0 Juba Dhexe 238,877 54,739 184,138 12,000 57,000 12,000 9,000 0 0 9 (Middle) Juba Hoose 385,790 124,682 261,108 22,000 69,000 22,000 20,000 0 0 11 (Lower) Sub-total 3,579,597 786,632 2,792,965 200,000 860,000 81,000 120,000 0 50,000 7 Banadir 901,183 901,183 - 15,000 - 15,000 - 0 - 2 Grand Total 7,502,654 2,895,568 4,607,086 341,000 1,341,000 152,000 176,000 0 107,000 6
Assessed and Con ngency Popula on in Crisis and Emergency Number affected % of Total popula on Distribu on of popula ons in crisis
Assessed Urban popula on in Crisis and Emergency 152,000 2 14% Assessed Rural popula on in Crisis and Emergency 283,000 4 27% IDP in se lements* (out of UNHCR 1.1million) to avoid double coun ng 615,000 8 59% Es mated Rural, Urban and IDP popula on in crisis 1,050,000 14 100% IPC CLASSIFICATION Distribu on of Popula ons in Crisis by Livelihood
Current Es mated Total in Crisis & Popula on in Crisis Livelihood system Popula on by Stressed Crisis Emergency Emergency as% of Total Livelihood Zones Agro‐Pastoral 1,987,062 620,000 63,000 0 63,000 27 Fishing 17,779 0 0 0 0 0 Pastoral 2,136,657 586,000 53,000 7,000 60,000 26 Riverine 366,683 140,000 10,000 0 10,000 4 Des tute pastoral 98,906 0 0 100,000 100,000 43 Grand Total 4,607,086 1,346,000 126,000 107,000 233,000 100 Projected
Es mated Total in Crisis & Popula on in Livelihood system Popula on by Crisis Emergency Emergency Crisis as% of Total Livelihood Zones
Agro‐Pastoral 1,987,062 615,000 115,000 0 115,000 41 Fishing 17,779 0 0 0 0 0 Pastoral 2,136,657 586,000 51,000 8,000 59,000 21
Riverine 366,683 140,000 10,000 0 10,000 4 Des tute pastoral 98,906 0 0 99,000 99,000 35 Grand Total 4,607,086 1,341,000 176,000 107,000 283,000 100 IPC CLASSIFICATION Distribu on of Popula ons in Crisis by Wealth Groups (Projected)
Total in Crisis Popula on in Rural Stressed Crisis Emergency & Emergency Crisis as% of Total
Poor 1,130,000 176,000 107,000 283,000 100 Middle 211,000 0 0 0 0 Be er‐off 0 0 0 0 0 Grand Total 1,341,000 176,000 107,000 283,000 100
Total in Crisis Popula on in Crisis Urban Stressed Crisis Emergency & Emergency as% of Total
Poor 341,000 152,000 0 152,000 100 Middle 0 0 0 0 0 Be er‐off 0 0 0 0 0 Grand Total 341,000 152,000 0 152,000 100 IPC CLASSIFICATION Progression of Populations in Crisis by Year (Projected)
increase/ decrease Jan-Jun '09 Jul-Dec '09 Jan-Jun '10 Jul-Dec '10 Jan-Jun '11 Jul-Dec '11 Apr-Jun '12 Aug-Dec '12 Jan-Jun '13 from last season
Urban 705,000 655,000 580,000 310,000 475,000 585,000 550,000 530,000 152,000 -71%
Rural 1,215,000 1,435,000 1,255,000 785,000 1,005,000 2,550,000 1,160,000 790,000 283,000 -64%
IDPs (UNHCR) 1,295,000 1,550,000 1,390,000 1,410,000 1,465,000 1,465,000 1,360,000 1,360,000 1,100,000 -19%
Adjusted IDP to avoid double 850,000 850,000 850,000 850,000 910,000 910,000 800,000 800,000 615,000 23% counting in Rural IPC
Total 2,770,000 2,940,000 2,685,000 1,945,000 2,390,000 4,045,000 2,510,000 2,120,000 1,050,000 -50% IPC CLASSIFICATION Progression of the Food Security Situa on Aug 2012‐ Jun 2013
IPC Map, Aug ‐ Dec 2012 IPC Map, Feb 1st 2013 IPC Map, Feb – Jun 2013 Key Messages
. The numbers of popula on in crisis (IPC Phase 3 and 4) in post Deyr 2012/13 reduced by over 50% from the post Gu 2012 (Feb‐Jun 2012) due to improved access and availability of food. In most areas poor food u lisa on (e.g. lack of safe water, feeding prac ces for children, etc.) remains a major limi ng factor of food security
. In the projec on period up to June 2013, 1.05 million people are es mated in acute food insecurity IPC Phases 3 and 4; this indicates a slight deteriora on from the current situa on (Feb 1, 2013) of a total of 1.0 million people in crisis (IPC Phases 3 and 4) na onwide.
. 1.3mln people are also es mated in acute food insecurity IPC Phase 2 (Stressed), of which about 80% are in the South. Stressed phase (IPC Phase 2) implies that at least 20% of the popula on in the analysed area can meet food needs but is not able to cover some essen al non‐food needs and has reduced ability to invest in livelihoods
. Majority of IDP se lements are in Emergency situa on due to high morbidity and limited food access; high malnutri on rates and elevated death rates in Alert to Cri cal (5 IDP se lements, o/w 4 in the South‐Central) are evident in these se lements
. A total of 215,000 (14.3% of 1.5m) children <5 are acutely malnourished, of which two‐thirds are in the South; Overall nutri on situa on is likely to remain unchanged across the country in the coming three months Key Messages Assump on for Projec ons (Feb‐Jun 2013)
. Gu rains are likely to be normal to below normal affec ng marginal rain‐fed maize cropping in southern agropastoral areas of the country. . Limited access to water for livestock is likely in parts of northern regions such as Sool Plateau and parts of Nugal Valley during Jilaal dry season (Jan‐Mar) . Food at household level (milk and cereal stocks) as well as seasonal farm job opportuni es for poor farmers will be available in the projec on period; . Cereal prices will follow a seasonal trend as a result of good Deyr harvest and an cipated supplies through humanitarian assistance and imports (port and cross‐border) . Insecurity will persist (although reduced) in South‐Central causing disrup ons of food supply into the markets, limi ng humanitarian access and causing displacements . Food security classifica on is likely to remain unchanged between now and June 2013; But current projec on assump on will be reviewed in March‐April based on updated informa on on climate performance; humanitarian interven ons; security condi ons Key messages Required Response
• Lifesaving responses to the popula on in Emergency is a priority • Protec ng livelihoods and strengthening disaster risk reduc on and mi ga on through: strengthen exis ng public services and community based resources and assets that serve to protect vulnerable popula ons from falling into crisis. • Building resilience of vulnerable poor households and addressing underlying causes of high malnutri on (lack of safe water and sanita on, caring/ feeding prac ces, etc.) to reduce the risks of food and nutri on insecurity www.fsnau.org