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SOMALIA Post-Deyr 2012 Food Security and Nutrition Outlook January to June 2013

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SOMALIA Post-Deyr 2012 Food Security and Nutrition Outlook January to June 2013 SOMALIA Post-Deyr 2012 Food Security and Nutrition Outlook January to June 2013 Despite improvements, more than one million likely to remain in Crisis through June 2013 KEY MESSAGES Figure 1. Current rural food security outcomes, January 2013 • As a result of positive impact of the good Deyr rains on livestock and crop performance and continued humanitarian assistance, the number of people in Crisis and Emergency (IPC Phases 3 and 4) has halved to 1.05 million since August. Even so, malnutrition rates in Somalia remain among the highest in the world, according to surveys conducted from October to December 2012. Humanitarian assistance to protect livelihoods, reduce acute malnutrition, and help the most food insecure populations meet their food needs is still necessary. • With the onset of the January to March Jilaal dry season, livestock productivity will decrease, but no major changes in food security classification are expected between now and June. However, livelihoods in Somalia remain at risk to a wide variety of hazards such as limited water access. • Early forecasts are that the April to June Gu rains will be normal to below normal in terms of total rainfall. However, if total seasonal rainfall is well below average or very poorly distributed unlike in the early forecast, the food insecure population is likely to increase. The primary areas affected would likely be maize-growing, agropastoral areas of the South. Source: FSNAU, FEWS NET Somalia, and partners Graphic: FSNAU This map represents acute food insecurity outcomes relevant for emergency decision-making. It does not necessarily reflect chronic food insecurity. Visit www.fews.net/FoodInsecurityScale for more on the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) SEASONAL CALENDAR FOR A TYPICAL YEAR household group scale. Camel Goat/Sheep Livestock migration to dry calving lambing season grazing areas Gu Camel calving Deyr Deyr off season Goat/Sheep assessment (South) assessment harvest lambing Gu off season Minor lean season Land preparation, planting Livestock migration to dry harvest (agricultural) and peak labor demand season grazing areas Land preparation, planting Deyr Main lean season Main Lean season Gu Minor lean season and peak labor demand harvest (pastoral) (agricultural) harvest (pastoral) Deyr (minor) rainy season Jilaal dry season Gu (main) rainy season Hagaa dry season Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Ongoing conflict in southern and central regions expected to continue. Normal to below normal Gu rains (March-May) Oct 2012 forecasted Sep 2013 Source: FEWS NET Somalia Swiss Agency for Development and Cooperation SDC 1 EUROPEAN COMMISSION www.fews.net/somalia www.fsnau.org SOMALIA Post-Deyr Food Security and Nutrition Outlook January to June 2013 NATIONAL OVERVIEW Figure 2. Projected rural food security outcomes, February to June 2013 Current Situation Rural Areas The near average October to December 2013 Deyr rains and subsequent above average harvest improved food stocks at the household level, enhanced livestock production and value, and increased milk availability. Along with these gains in food and income, humanitarian interventions continued, according to the latest data gathered by FSNAU and partners in December 2012. The October to December 2012 Deyr rains were average to above average in most parts of the country: • Northwest: In most of West Golis and Guban pastoral livelihood zones, there was dry weather from October to December, which is the normal seasonal pattern. However, as is usual, moderate December to February Hays rains started in December in these areas and in the coastal areas of Bari Region in the Northeast. The December rains were well distributed except in Zeylac District in Awdal Region where they were poorly distributed. However, no Hays rains fell in January 2013 exacerbating dry conditions that have persisted in some areas since late 2010. Source: FSNAU, FEWS NET Somalia, and partners Graphic: FSNAU • Northeast:The rainfall performance in pastoral areas was fairly good and evenly distributed including in the Coastal This map represents acute food insecurity outcomes relevant for Deeh livelihood zone, which had large rainfall deficits over the emergency decision-making. It does not necessarily reflect chronic food insecurity. Visit www.fews.net/FoodInsecurityScale for more past several seasons on the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) household group scale. • Central regions: Rainfall in most of the Hawd, Addun pastoral livelihood zone, and the cowpea-growing areas (central agropastoral livelihood zone) were average with good frequency and distribution. Near average volume of rainfall was also received in most parts of Coastal Deeh livelihood zone in the central regions, which had received poor precipitation during the April to June Gu 2012. • South: Widely distributed, moderate to heavy rains fell. There were exceptions in agropastoral areas of Lower Juba and northern Gedo Region where rainfall was insufficient for normal crop development. As a result of the Deyr rains, maize, sorghum, and cash crop production occurred on a seasonally normal schedule with above average output overall. This season, some farmers shifted from cereals to more profitable sesame as cereal prices have remained low in many areas since the previous Deyr harvest in January 2012. Maize and sorghum production from the Deyr 2012 is estimated to be nearly 145,000 metric tons (MT). This above average cereal harvest was 46 percent higher than the post-war average (PWA, 16-year average) and 51 percent higher than the five-year average. Bay Region contributes more than half of Somalia’s sorghum production, and production was especially good in Bay and in Lower and Middle Shabelle Regions. However, the agropastoral areas of Lower and Middle Juba and Gedo Regions experienced significantly below average crop production. In addition to cereals, nearly 51,000 MT of other crops were harvested, including but not limited to sesame, cowpeas, rice, groundnuts, and watermelons. These higher value crops were mainly harvested in Lower and Middle Shabelle and Juba, Gedo, Hiran, and Galgadud Regions. Despite this production, Somalia produces only slightly over 40 percent of its annual cereal requirement even during normal seasons. Rangeland conditions in the most pastoral livelihoods zones in the country are near average, except for in the Sool Plateau, some parts of the East Golis pastoral livelihood zone, the Dharoor Valley in Sanag Region, and the Nugal Valley in Sool Region where Deyr rainfall was below average. In reaction, livestock migrated to areas with better pasture and browse Famine Early Warning Systems Network and Food Security and Nutrition Analysis Unit/FAO Somalia 2 SOMALIA Post-Deyr Food Security and Nutrition Outlook January to June 2013 condition earlier than normal, but the migration was primarily to normal areas of migration. Due to significantly poor rains in the Sool Plateau and Nugal Valley in Sool and Sanag Regions, abnormal livestock outmigrations to adjacenta reas of the Sool Plateau in Bari Region have been observed. On December 24 and 25, torrential, cold rains fell for nearly 25 hours in parts of Eyl and Dangorayo Districts of Nugal Region. A significant number of livestock died of hypothermia in localized areas. As a result of the October to December Deyr rains, both pasture and water availability have increased and contributed to improved livestock body conditions. The terms of trade (ToT) between a local quality goat and cereals have remained favorable and have risen since early 2012. Cereal prices have been lower than in the year before the Deyr 2011 harvest, and local-quality goat prices have been exceptionally high in many markets since April or May, before the peak export period. These higher local quality goat prices and lower than in 2011 cereal prices continued into December in most pastoral and agropastoral livelihood zones, keeping terms of trade favorable for households that need to sell goats in order to buy cereals. In pastoral areas, in October and November, most livestock species either conceived or were milking. Exceptions were found in western Guban pastoral livelihood zone, parts of the Sool Plateau, and Coastal Deeh livelihood zone. Barring those exceptions, livestock holdings and herd sizes for poor households increased across all species since July 2012. Overall, reported herd sizes in December 2012 were still below household economy baseline profile levels, which were recorded as recently as 2009 to 2011 in many areas of northern Somalia. However, camel holdings in the Hawd and West and East Golis pastoral livelihood zones of the Northwest increased since July and were above baseline levels. Daily casual labor wages to cereals ToT are also favorable for both rural and urban day laborers. The ToT have increased further since July 2012, and they remain above their five-year averages. These wages facilitate access to food from markets for households that depend heavily on casual labor as a source of income. After three years of devastating recurring droughts from 2008 to 2011, in Coastal Deeh pastoral livelihood zone, poor households are benefitting from three consecutive good rain seasons (the October to December Deyr 2011, the April to June Gu 2012, and Deyr 2012), which have enhanced pasture and water conditions and significantly improved livestock value and reproduction rates. A nutrition assessment based on middle-upper arm circumference (MUAC) in December shows MUAC under 12.5 cm was recorded in 10.1 percent of cases (confidence interval (CI) 6.5 to 15.1 percent). This rate has remained unchanged from July 2012 and remains Critical although improved from Very Critical compare to December 2011. Based on these factors, in coastal Deeh pastoral livelihood zone, poor household’s access to food improved, although the area still remains in Crisis (IPC Phase 3). Due to increased crop production, improved livestock production, increased livestock values, and favorable casual daily labor rates, food security outcomes for the most rural parts of the country have improved significantly since August 2012.
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