ERICKSON & ASSOCIATES Economic Consultants 264 NW Jefferson Place, Bend, OR 97701 319 Seward St. (suite 5), Juneau, AK 99801 Telephone (907) 957-6091
[email protected] http://www.EricksonEconomics.com The Great Alaska Recession1 by Gregg Erickson and Milt Barker April 12, 2015 How it began – How it differs from past Alaska recessions – Why it’s shaping up to be the worst economic disaster since statehood – Why the economic crisis trumps the fiscal crisis as the biggest challenge facing Alaska – And what can be done to lessen the economic pain for Alaska households and businesses. 1 This analysis was supported under contract 15-14M with the Alaska Mental Health Trust Authority. Conclusions are solely those of Erickson & Associates. THE GREAT ALASKA RECESSION ERICKSON & ASSOCIATES Contents Executive summary ............................................................................ 3 1. The beginning ................................................................................. 4 2. Other forecasts ............................................................................... 5 3. Other recessions ............................................................................. 6 3-A. The 1977 Post-Pipeline Recession .................................................................. 7 3-B. The 1985-88 State Spending Recession ........................................................... 7 3-C. The 2009 Spillover Recession ........................................................................... 8 4. Deconstructing the storm ..............................................................