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Economic Base of the Fairbanks North Star

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Economic Base of the Fairbanks North Star ECONOMIC BASE OF THE FAIRBANKS NORTH STAR BOROUGH, ALASKA By Robert C. Haring and Clem C. Correia Institute of Social, Economic and Government Research University of Alaska June 1967 The preparation of this report and all figures contained herein was financially aided through a federal grant from the Department of Housing and Urban Development, under the Urban Planning Assistance Program authorized by Section 701 of the Housing Act of 1954, as amended. This document and maps were prepared under the Urban Planning Assistance Program for the Alaska State Housing Authority. FOREWORD This report on the economic base of the Fairbanks North Star Borough is one of several continuing Institute research projects relating to community planning and development in Alaska. It is part of the Borough's comprehensive planning program being carried out with the assistance of the Alaska State Housing Authority and the U. S. Department of Housing and Urban Development. The basic work for the economic base comple erl before March of this year, and the initial report draft was completed in June, It evaluated past and current economic activities, analyzed growth trends and dealt with the future extent and character of economic development in the Borough. In the second week of August 1967, while the report was undergoing review, the Fairbanks area was hit by an unprecedented and devastating flood, The majority of private properties and public facilities sustained serious damage. Economic activity came to a standstill; next it was redirected toward the tremendous task of flood relief and reconstruction. The flood has dealt a serious blow to the economic life of the Fairbanks North Star Borough. But it also has created new opportunities for public and private actions that can result in a stronger economic base and a more viable community. The next weeks and months will tell whether the community will move in the direction of realizing these opportunities or whether the flood will constitute a permanent blow to Fairbanks' economy. i It is the current purpose of this economic base study to help provide a point of departure toward a positive and constructive planning and redevelopment effort. The report presents an economic profile of Fairbanks as it was before and up to the flood. It provides a basis for seeing where Fairbanks would have gone without the disaster. It does not, however, attempt to define the alternative courses of development available the This is a task that is part of the next stage in the development planning and programming process. And it is the hope of those who participated in this report that it will be helpful in this most important task. Many persons contributed time, effort and special talents toward completing this project. In particular, Fairbanks North Star Borough Chairman Harold Gillam and Planning Director Donn Hopkins helped with the directing and molding of the study. Mrs. Mary Putman and Charles Olson of the Alaska State Housing Authority provided both supervision and substantive help. Richard Berg, long experienced in Alaska transportation development and currently transportation specialist for the Port of Seattle, was a key consultant for this project. A number of University of Alaska faculty members gave valuable aid to the study, particularly Ernest Wolff of the Mineral Industry Research Laboratory and Ichirou Inukai of the Department of Economics. The University Computer Center assisted in developing the Regional Input/Output Model and in processing results from survey research into the structure of personal income, occupations and preferences. Support in these endeavors was given by Computer Center Director Edward Gauss and Institute programmer Don Walker. This work was partly financed by the National Science Foundation. ii Primary responsibility for the report rests with Dr. Robert C. Haring, a senior member of the Institute and Head of the Department of Business Administration. His principal assistant for this study was Clem Correia. Mrs. Eleanor Hungate, James Sullivan and Edgar McDonald contributed in their special areas of interest and in the thankless task of assembling and revising portions of the final report. versions and segments of this report were reviewed by the Borough Planning Commission, and their suggestions proved particularly useful. This project is part of the technical basis for preparing the Comprehensive Plan for the North Star Borough. Its companion project, titled Natural Resource Base of the Fairbanks-North Star Borough, was published earlier this year. Victor Fischer, Director Institute of Social, Economic and Government Research September 1967 iii TABLE OF CONTENTS Chapter FOREWARD i LIST OF TABLES vi LIST OF FIGURES ix I INTRODUCTION 1 Purposes 1 Method of Research 2 Organization 3 II SUMMARY AND IMPLICATIONS 4 Employment and Earnings 4 Population and Labor Force Trends 7 Educational Composition of the Labor Force 11 The Input/Output Model 13 Spatial Distribution of the Economic Base 15 Logistics and Physical Distribution 17 III EMPLOYMENT AND EARNINGS 21 Occupational Pattern 21 Income Structure 2/ Changing Composition of Growth n Seasonal Forecast to 1970 34 Summary 41 IV POPULATION AND LABOR FORCE TRENDS 42 Social Characteristics and Migration 41 Educational Composition of the Labor Force 50 Cross-Section of the Adult Labor Force 61 v STRUCTURE OF THE REGION'S ECONOMIC ACTIVITY 65 Input/Output Framework 66 Growth Potential 7q Applications of the Planning Method p,4 VI SPATIAL DISTRIBUTION OF INDUSTRY AND HOUSEHOLDS p, 7 Historical changes R7 Geographic Density Patterns 90 iv TABLE OF CONTENTS Chapter Growth Alternatives and Potential Implications for Planning VII LOGISTICS AND PHYSICAL DISTRIBUTION 102 Flow of Goods and Services 103 Logistics and Transportation 113 Appendixes A 1965 TRANSACTION TABLE 137 B 1965 DIRECT REQUIREMENTS TABLE 141 c ANNOTATED BIBLIOGRAPHY ON INPUT/OUTPUT ANALYSIS FOR URBAN PLANNING IN NON­ METROPOLITAN AREAS 146 Bibliography 148 v LIST OF TABLES Number Title 1 Sources of Personal Income in the Fairbanks­ Interior Alaska Region, by Industry Group, 1960, 23 2 Nonagricultural Wage and Salary Employment in Fairbanks Labor Market by Season and Industry, 1961-1965 . • . • • . •... 24-25 3 Seasonal Indexes for Fairbanks, Alaska Nonagricultural Wage and Salary Employment, by Industry Category, 1961-1965 ..... 26 4 Summary of Characteristics of Selected Income­ Occupation Surveys of Fairbanks During 1965-1967 .............. 27 5 Reported Annual Income Grouping of Alaska Respondents According to Number and Percent for the State and North Star Borough, December, 1966-January, 1967. • . ... 28 6 Survey of Alaskan Households by Borough Location of Residence According to Income Group by Number and Percent, December, 1966- January, 1967 . .. 30-31 7 Estimated Annual Family Income in the Fairbanks North Star Borough, Alaska, March, 1967 ... 32 8 Respondents in the Fairbanks North Star Borough, Alaska, According to Age and Income Classes as of January, 1967. • . ... 33 9 Forecasted Annual Employment Rates in the Fairbanks Labor Market by Non-Agricultural Industries, 1967-1970 . • .... 38 10 Forecast of Employment in the Fairbanks North Star Borough, 1967-1970, by Quarter .... 11 Distribution of Persons in the Fairbanks Election District by Age and Sex, 1960 . ... 40 12 Population of Fairbanks and the Nineteenth Election District, 1910-1965 . ........ 45 vi LIST OF TABLES Number Title 13 Recent Estimates of Population for the Fairbanks Area. 45 14 Percent of Inhabitants Age 25 and Over, According to Years of School Completed for the City of Fairbanks and Fairbanks Election District, 1950 and 1960 . 46 15 Percent of Inhabitants, Age 25 and Over, According to Years of School Completed, for the United States, Alaska, and Fairbanks Election District as of 1960. .... 46 16 Estimated Elementary School Budgeting Capacity and Utilization, Fairbanks North Star Borough as of May 26, 1967 ........... 51 17 Projected Construction and Estimated Public School Capacity, Fairbanks North Star Borough, Alaska. 51 18 Recorded Birth and Mortality Rates in Selected Alaskan Areas, 1959-1965 .... 52 19 Enrollment in Barnette Elementary School, by Grade, 1960-1967 ...... 53 20 Enrollment in Denali Elementary School, by Grade, 1958-1967 .......... 53 21 Enrollment in Hunter Elementary School, by Grade, 1959-1967 .........•. 54 22 Enrollment in Joy Elementary School, by Grade, 1961-1967 .......... 54 23 Enrollment in Nordale Elementary School, by Grade, 1958-1967 ........... 55 24 Enrollment in University Park Elementary School, by Grade, 1958-1967 55 25 Enrollment in North Pole Elementary School, by Grade, 1958-1967 .......... 56 26 Summary of Isolated Area Elementary School Enrollment in Fairbanks North Star Borough. 56 27 Enrollment in Main Junior High and Lathrop High Schools, by Grade, 1959-1967 .... 57 vii LIST OF TABLES Number Title 27-A Total School Enrollment by Grade in Fairbanks North Star Borough, 1961-1967 58 28 Enrollment in Elementary and Secondary Parochial Schools, Fairbanks North Star Borough, Alaska, 1960-1966 . 59 29 Fairbanks North Star Borough Final Demand, 1Q65 70 30 Summary of Purchasing and Contracting Activities by the National Military Establishment in the Fairbanks Area, Fiscal Years, 1960-1965 .•.. 83 31 University of Alaska Net New Investment Expenditures on Building, 1957-1966 . 100 32 Gross Receipts As Reported In Business License Tax Returns, City of Fairbanks and Fairbanks North Star Borough, 1962-1965 . 114 33 Air Taxi and Charter Operations in the Fairbanks
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