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The United States National Climate Assessment— Alaska Technical Regional Report The United States National Climate Assessment— Alaska Technical Regional Report Circular 1379 U.S. Department of the Interior U.S. Geological Survey Cover: This photograph from 2007 shows a century old whaling boat that became perched along a segment of rapidly eroding shoreline on the Beaufort Sea coast. Two months after this photograph was taken the boat fell into the ocean and was washed away. (Photograph by Benjamin Jones, U.S. Geological Survey.) The United States National Climate Assessment— Alaska Technical Regional Report Edited by Carl J. Markon, U.S. Geological Survey; Sarah F. Trainor, University of Alaska Fairbanks–Alaska Center for Climate Assessment and Policy; and F. Stuart Chapin, III, University of Alaska Fairbanks Circular 1379 U.S. Department of the Interior U.S. Geological Survey ii The United States National Climate Assessment—Alaska Technical Regional Report U.S. Department of the Interior KEN SALAZAR, Secretary U.S. Geological Survey Marcia K. McNutt, Director U.S. Geological Survey, Reston, Virginia: 2012 For more information on the USGS—the Federal source for science about the Earth, its natural and living resources, natural hazards, and the environment, visit http://www.usgs.gov or call 1–888–ASK–USGS. For an overview of USGS information products, including maps, imagery, and publications, visit http://www.usgs.gov/pubprod To order this and other USGS information products, visit http://store.usgs.gov Any use of trade, product, or firm names is for descriptive purposes only and does not imply endorsement by the U.S. Government. Although this report is in the public domain, permission must be secured from the individual copyright owners to reproduce any copyrighted materials contained within this report. Suggested citation: Markon, C.J., Trainor, S.F., and Chapin, F.S., III, eds., 2012, The United States National Climate Assessment— Alaska Technical Regional Report: U.S. Geological Survey Circular 1379, 148 p. iii Preface In 1990, Congress passed Public Law 101-606 (1990), which established the U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP). The purpose of the USGCRP is to provide information that increases the understanding of the cumulative effects of human activities and natural processes on the environment and their response to global change. Section 106 of the Act identifies the requirement for a National Assessment to be delivered to the President of the United States and Congress not less frequently than every 4 years that: • Integrates, evaluates, and interprets the findings of the Program and discusses the scientific uncertainties associated with such findings; • Analyzes the effects of global change on the natural environment, agriculture, energy production and use, welfare, human social systems, and biological diversity; and • Analyzes current trends in global change, both human-induced and natural, and projects major trends for the subsequent 25–100 years (Public Law 101-606, 1990). The National Climate Assessment (NCA) serves as a status report on climate change science and impacts based on observations made across the country. It incorporates advances in the understanding of climate science into larger social, ecological, and policy systems and serves to integrate scientific information from multiple sources and to highlight key findings and significant knowledge gaps. The First National Assessment report was produced in 2000 and a second, Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States, was produced in 2009. This document, The United States National Climate Assessment–Alaska Technical Regional Report, is one of eight regional reports that will provide input to the 2013 National Climate Assessment. It was produced through the leadership of the 2012 NCA Alaska Region Technical Report Writing Team (appendix A), but is the culmination of the efforts of many contributing authors who are recognized in appendix B. Discussions began in 2011 (fig. 1) and the process included four public outreach events. Two webinars1 were hosted by the University of Alaska Fairbanks, Alaska Center for Climate Assessment and Policy (ACCAP–November 2011 and February 2012). Two workshops, one at the Alaska Tribal Conference on Environmental Management (October 2011), and one at the Alaska Forum on the Environment (February 2012) also were held. These outreach events allowed the public a venue to provide comment and input on report topics and content. 3/1/12 1/15/12 2/8/12 Final 9/12/11 10/25/11 Technical AFE Session Technical Kick off ACCAP Report Selected Report to Meeting Webinar Contents Findings NCA 10/1/11 11/8/11 1/15/12 2/13/12 Expressions ATCEM Compilation ACCAP of Interest Draft Report Webinar begins Figure 1. Timeline for producing the National Climate Assessment Alaska Technical Report. ACCAP, Alaska Center for Climate Assessment and Policy; AFE, Alaska Forum on the Environment; NCA, National Climate Assessment; ATCEM, Alaska Tribal Conference on Environmental Management. 1Recordings of these webinars are archived on the Alaska Center for Climate Assessment Policy (University of Alaska, Fairbanks, 2012b). tac12-5195_fig01 iv The United States National Climate Assessment—Alaska Technical Regional Report This page intentionally left blank. v Acknowledgments This report was made possible by the combined efforts and leadership of the writing team (appendix A) and the dedication of the contributing authors (appendix B). Financial support was provided by the USGS Climate and Land Use Mission Area, the Office of the Regional Director, Alaska Area, and the kind support of all participating agencies. Special thanks go to the following individuals that provided peer review of the manuscript: Amanda Robinson, U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service; Robert Winfree, National Park Service; and Keith Boggs, Alaska Natural Heritage Program. vi The United States National Climate Assessment—Alaska Technical Regional Report This page intentionally left blank. vii Contents Preface ...........................................................................................................................................................iii Acknowledgments .........................................................................................................................................v Acronyms and Abbreviations ...................................................................................................................xiv Executive Summary .......................................................................................................................................1 Introduction.....................................................................................................................................................3 Regional Description .....................................................................................................................................4 Geographic Context ..............................................................................................................................4 Alaska’s Ecoregions .............................................................................................................................4 Permafrost..............................................................................................................................................6 Socio-Economic Conditions ................................................................................................................7 Alaska’s Climate Trends ..............................................................................................................................10 Temperature .........................................................................................................................................11 Precipitation.........................................................................................................................................12 Coastal Storm Events .........................................................................................................................13 Regional Climate Forecasts........................................................................................................................14 Temperature Projections ...................................................................................................................14 Precipitation Projections ...................................................................................................................26 Permafrost Projections ......................................................................................................................32 Sea Ice Projections ............................................................................................................................34 Observed Environmental Trends ...............................................................................................................35 The Ocean Environment ....................................................................................................................35 Sea Ice Conditions .....................................................................................................................39 Ocean Acidification ...................................................................................................................40 Sea-Level Change .....................................................................................................................42 Coastal and Marine Environments ..........................................................................................43
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