A Profile of Rural Nova Scotia
FINAL DRAFT
Presented to the Nova Scotia Rural Team
By Jean Lambert Research and Analysis Rural Secretariat, Atlantic Region TABLE OF CONTENTS
List of Tables and Graphs...... ii Executive Summary...... vi Definition of rural ...... 1 1. Demographics...... 4 1.1 Population...... 4 1.2 Births and deaths ...... 6 1.3 Gender ...... 7 1.4 Age ...... 8 1.5 Mobility...... 11 1.6 Migration net flows ...... 14 1.7 Diversity ...... 17 1.8 Immigration...... 20 2. Employment and Income ...... 22 2.1 Employment ...... 22 2.2 Full-time and part-time work...... 25 2.3 Income assistance ...... 26 2.4 Employment structure ...... 28 2.5 Income...... 31 3. Housing ...... 36 4. Education...... 40 4.1 School attendance...... 40 4.2 Level of schooling and completion...... 41 5. Health status...... 45 5.1 Geographic definitions ...... 45 5.2 Health Indicators ...... 46 5.3 Health behaviours...... 49 5.4 Psycho-social factors...... 52 6. Natural resources...... 56 6.1 Agriculture...... 56 6.2 Sustainable farming...... 63 6.3 Fisheries...... 67 6.4 Aquaculture ...... 69 6.5 Sustainable fisheries ...... 73 6.6 Forestry...... 77 6.7 Sustainable forestry ...... 81 7. Crime...... 85 7.1 Reported crime statistics...... 85 7.2 Cost of crime ...... 94 ANNEX 1 ...... 97 ANNEX 2 ...... 100 ANNEX 3 ...... 103
i List of Tables and Graphs Tables 1.1 Population Change by NS Counties, 1996-2001….………..……….……….……….5 1.2 Births and Deaths by NS Counties, 2001………………..…………..………………..7 1.3 Gender Ratio, Number of Men per 100 Women, 2001……………………….……….8 1.4 Age Distribution as Percentage of Total Population, 1996………..….………………8 1.5 Age Distribution as Percentage of Total Population, 2001………..……….…………9 1.6 Migrants, Nova Scotia, 2001………………………….……………………………..12 1.7 Migrants from Canada, 2001………………………….……………………………..13 1.8 Net Flows Over Five-Year Period by Age According to Census Data………….…..14 1.9 Aboriginal Population in Nova Scotia, Aboriginal Identity Definition, 2001…..…..16 1.10 Acadian Population in Nova Scotia, Ethnic Origin and Mother Tongue Definitions, 2001…………………………………….……………17 1.11 African-Nova Scotian Population, Visible Minority Definition, 2001…………….18 1.12 African-Nova Scotian Population in Rural Nova Scotia…………………………...19 1.13 Immigrants as Percent of Total Population, 2001……………...…………………..19 1.14 Non Resident Agricultural Seasonal Workers in Nova Scotia…………..………....20 2.1 Employment Data, Number of Persons, 1996…………………….…………..……..21 2.2 Employment Data, Number of Persons, 2001……………….…………………..…..21 2.3 Participation Rate by Region…………………………………………….……….….22 2.4 Employment Rate, (Percent)…..………………………………………………...…...23 2.5 Unemployment Rate, (Percent)..…………….………………………...……………..23 2.6 Percentage of Total Population 15 Years and Over With Employment Income, 2001…..…………………………………………….….24
2.7 Labour Force Distribution by Sector and Regions, 2001 (in Percent)……….…...... 27 2.8 Labour Force Distribution by Industry, 1997 North American Industry Classification System, 2001 (in Percent)……………………..……………….…….29 2.9 Average Income of Individuals, Population 15 Years and Over With Income, in Dollars, 2000…….………………………………………...………………….…..32 2.10 Median Income by County, in Dollars, 2000 and 1995…………..…………...…...34 3.1 Gross Rent and Major Owner’s Payments by Region, in Current Dollars, 1996-2001………………………………………………………35
ii 3.2 Tenants and Owners Households Spending More Than 30% of Income on Gross Rent or Major Payments, 2001……………..……………….…………….38 3.3 Households Spending More Than 30% of Income on Shelter Costs, Percent of All Households……..…………………………………….……………..38 4.1 School Attendance 1996, in Percentage of Population 15 to 24 Years Old……...... 39 4.2 School Attendance 2001, in Percentage of Population 15 to 24 Years Old..……….40 4.3 Highest Level of Schooling by Region, Percentage of Population Over 20 Years Old, 2001……..…………………………………………………….…..…41 4.4 Highest Level of Graduation by Region, Percentage of Population Over 20 Years Old, 2001….……………………………………………..……...…...42 5.1 Disability-Free Life Expectancy in Years, 1996……………………………….....…46 5.2 Infant Mortality, Rate per 1,000 Live Births, 1997………………………..……...…47 5.3 Low Births Weight (Less Than 2,500 Grams) Percentage of All Live Births,1997……………………………………...…………………….……47
5.4 Percentage of Daily or Occasional Smokers, 2000-2001………………………...... 49 5.5 Obesity Rate, Percent of Population 20 to 64 Years Old, 2000-2001…………...... 50 5.6 Percentage of Population Over 18 Years Old that Is Experiencing Quite A Lot of Stress,2001…………………….….…………………………….…..51 5.7 Probable Risk of Depression, 2001………….…….…...…………………………...52 5.8 Cause of Death: Intentional Self-Harm (Suicide), Standardized Mortality Rate per 100,000 Inhabitants…….………..……………….52 6.1 Number of Farms and Farm Receipts, Nova Scotia, 1995 and 2000…….………....55 6.2 Number of Farms by Capital Value, Nova Scotia, 1996 and 2001………….…..….57 6.3 Number of Farms and Capital by County, by Order of Average Capital by Farm NS, 2001………………….…………………………………………………...…….57 6.4 Selected Agri-Food Manufacturing, NS, 2001………..………………………….…59 6.5 Number and Age of Farm Operators, 1996 and 2001…….……..…………….…....60 6.6 Aquaculture Production, Nova Scotia, 1997-2002, in Metric Tonnes…………...…69 6.7 Summary of Aquaculture Value Added Account, 2002, in Thousand of Dollars……………………………...………………...………….....72
6.8 Wood and Paper Product Manufacturing, NS, 2001……..…………….………..…79 7.1 Crime of Violence by Type, Nova Scotia, Halifax and Rural Nova Scotia, Actual Incidents, 1997-2002….……………………………………………..…...... 88
iii 7.2 Property Crimes, Nova Scotia, Halifax and Rural Nova Scotia, Actual Incidents,1997-2002………………………………………………..….….….90
7.3 Other Criminal Code Offences, Nova Scotia, Halifax and Rural Nova Scotia, Actual Incidents, 1997-2002………………………………………….…………...... 91 7.4 Costs of Crime in Nova Scotia, 1997 ($ millions)……………………..……..……..94
Graphs and Figures 1.1 Changes in Rural and Urban Population………………..………………...…..….……4 1.2 Changes in Proportion of Rural and Urban Population……...……………...…….…..6 1.3 Age Distribution, 0 to 24 Years Old, 2001………..……………………..…….…...…9 1.4 Age Distribution, 65 years Old and Over, 2001………..………………………....…10 1.5 Distribution Change between 1996 and 2001……………..………….……….……..11 1.6 Migrants from Canada in the Last Five Years as a Percentage of All Internal Migrants……………………..………………..….…13 1.7 Net Migration Flows, 15-19 years old…………………………………………...…..15 1.8 Net Migration Flows between 1991-1996 by Age Group……………..………...…..15 1.9 French and Non-Official Mother Tongue as a Percentage of the Population, 2001………..…………………………..…………………………18 2.1 Unemployment Rate, 2001……………………………………………………....…..23 2.2 Full Time and Part Time Work Change between 1996 and 2001, by Region…....….25 2.3 Total number of Eligible Income Assistance Cases December 1999 to September 2003…..……………………………………….…..…26 2.4 Income Assistance Cases and Beneficiaries as a Percentage of Population…...... ….26 2.5 Labour Force Distribution by Sector, Rural and Urban NS, 2001…………..…....…28 2.6 Employment Distribution by Selected Industries, 2001…………….…...... ……..30 2.7 Distribution of Average Incomes, NS CSDs, 2000………………………….….…...31 2.8 Median Income of Individuals with Income, 2000……………….………..………..33 3.1 Tenants and Owners by Region, NS, 2001………………………………...... …..…35 3.2 Average Gross Rent and Major Payments by Region, 2001………………….…..…36 4.1 School Attendance Changes between 1996 and 2001………………………..…...…40 4.2 Highest Level of Schooling by Region, 2001……………………………..………...42 4.3 Diplomas and Certificates by Region, 2001……………………………………...... 43 Figure 5.1: Nova Scotia Health Regions, 2003……………………………………...….45
iv 5.1 Life Expectancy, 1996, Difference with Canadian Average…………………...……46 5.2 Low Birth Weight by Health Zones, 1997……………………………………...……48 5.3 Smoking, Difference with Canadian Percentage, by Health Zone………………..…49 5.4 Obesity Rate by Health Zone, 2000-2001……………………….…………..…….…50 Figure 5.2: District Health Authorities, Nova Scotia Department of Health August 2001…………………………………………………………….……53 5.5 Suicide Rate per 100,000 of Population, 2002…….……………………..…….……54 6.1 Number of Farms by Cash Receipts, 1995 and 2000….…………………….………56 6.2 Farm Type Distribution in NS………………………………….……………………58 6.3 Farm Operators by Age in Nova Scotia……………………….……………………..60 6.4 Operating Arrangements, 2001, % of NS Farms…………….………………………61 6.5 Nova Scotia Commercial Landings in Metric Tonnes……………………………….66 6.6 Values of Commercial Landings in NS, in Thousand of Dollars……………...…….67 6.7 Number of Fishers and Vessels in NS………………………………………...…..…68 6.8 Aquaculture Production Value, Nova Scotia……………………………...…………70 6.9 Aquaculture Employment in Nova Scotia……………………………...……………70 6.10 Type of Aquaculture Employment Distribution, NS, 2002………………...……....71 6.11 Area Classification, NS, 2002…………………………………………..…….…….76 6.12 Timber Productive Forest Land Ownership in Nova Scotia, 1999…………...….…77 6.13 Type of Forests, NS, 1999……………………………………………………..…...78 6.14 Volume of Roundwood Harvested by Species Group in Nova Scotia……….….....78 6.15 Maple Products in Nova Scotia……………………………………………….…....80 7.1 All Criminal Code Offences, Actual Incidents……………...……………….……...84 7.2 All Criminal Code Offences, Including Traffic Offences….……...... ……….85 7.3 Type of Crimes, Nova Scotia, 1997-2002………………….………………..………86 7.4 Type of Crime as Percentage of All Criminal Code Incidents Including Traffic, Rural Nova Scotia, 2002….……………………………..……….87 7.5 Type of Crime, Canada, Nova Scotia and Halifax, 2002…………………..………..87 7.6 Assault, Nova Scotia and Halifax, 1997-2002..……………………………..………89 7.7 Theft Under $5,000 in Nova Scotia and Halifax, 1997-2002………………..………91 7.8 Other Criminal Code: Most Frequent Incidents in Rural Nova Scotia.………..…….92
v Executive Summary
This Rural Profile of Nova Scotia was prepared by the Atlantic Region analyst of the Rural Secretariat for Nova Scotia’s Rural Team. Similar profiles were prepared in other provinces and territories to create a socio-economic profile of rural areas compared with urban areas.
The “rural and small town” definition of rural proposed by Statistics Canada was used in this profile. According to that definition, rural areas are all census subdivisions (CSDs) that are not part of census metropolitan areas (CMAs) or census agglomerations (CAs). The latter two concepts correspond to census subdivisions that have a population of 100,000 or more for CMAs and 10,000 or more for CAs, as well as all fringe census subdivisions where over 50% of the labour force works in an urban area.
The principal sources of data are the last two Statistics Canada population censuses (1996 and 2001). Other Statistics Canada survey results and provincial data are used in some sections of the profile as well.
The profile is divided into seven sections: demographics, employment and income, housing, education, health status, natural resources and crime.
MAJOR FINDINGS Demographics Based on the rural and small town definition, the rural population in Nova Scotia is 333,207 inhabitants. That definition excludes the Halifax Regional Municipality, the Cape Breton Regional Municipality, Kentville, Truro and New Glasgow. Nova Scotia is increasingly urban: between 1991 and 1996, urban population increased by more than 2% and rural population decreased. The rural population decreased beyond the 2% mark between 1996 and 2001 while the urban population continued to grow.
vi In Nova Scotia, the birth rate surpasses the death rate by a 1 per 1,000 inhabitants ratio. However, 12 of 18 counties in Nova Scotia show a death rate greater than the birth rate. There are 93.6 men for every 100 women in Nova Scotia compared with the national average of 96.1 men per 100 women. The number of women in urban Nova Scotia explains this result because the ratio there is 92.3 men to every 100 women. The rural ratio is closer to the national figure at 96 men per 100 women.
The population in rural Nova Scotia is older than that in the cities. In the last two censuses, rural Nova Scotia had the lowest share of people below 15 years of age compared with other regions and the highest share of people 65 years of age or older.
More than 36% of Nova Scotia’s residents changed addresses between 1996 and 2001. In 2001, 13.4% of the rural population were new residents in rural CSDs compared with 14.3% who were residents in urban areas. In rural communities, only 4% of migrants are from abroad, while that proportion is at 10% in cities.
Rural areas of Nova Scotia have experienced a significant net decline in their population aged between 15 and 19 years, while the decline was not significant for the 20 to 24 age group. There was an increase in the 25 to 29 age cohort.
The presence of Aboriginals, Acadians and African-Nova Scotians makes rural Nova Scotia rich in cultural diversity. Aboriginals represent more than 2% of rural population, Acadians and Francophones more than 7% and African-Nova Scotians 1.22%.
Immigrants represent more than 18% of Canada’s population but the percentages are lower in Nova Scotia. Immigrants form 4.6% of the province’s total population; the proportion is 5.2% in urban Nova Scotia and only 3.5% in rural Nova Scotia.
vii Employment and income The rural participation rate in the labour market is approximately five percentage points lower than the urban participation rate. The rural employment rate is 6 points lower than the urban rate; however, rural employment increased from one census to the next.
The unemployment rate in rural Nova Scotia is 3 points higher than in urban Nova Scotia. However, it decreased by more than 3 points between 1996 and 2001 while the urban unemployment rate decreased by less than 2 points.
More than 52% of Canadians of 15 years of age and over with employment income work the whole year, full-time, but that proportion is lower than 44% in rural Nova Scotia. Between 1996 and 2001 the number of full-time workers increased more in rural than in urban areas.
The number of persons on income assistance has decreased steadily over the last 3 years. Cases and beneficiaries per capita are lower in rural communities than in cities.
The primary sector employs more than 12% of the labour force in rural Nova Scotia compared with less than 3% in urban Nova Scotia. Of the rural workforce, 66% is in the services sector, while that proportion is at 84% in cities.
The average income is generally higher in urban CSDs than in rural ones. The average yearly income in every Nova Scotia county is lower than the average income nationally. The difference fluctuates between $183 in Halifax County and $10,468 in Guysborough. The median income is $16,758 in rural Nova Scotia as opposed to $20,684 in urban Nova Scotia.
viii Housing More than 78% of rural residents own their homes. The cost of housing is significantly lower in rural Nova Scotia than in urban areas. Rural residents are paying on average $85 less each month to own a house, and tenants $53 less to rent. However, increases in housing costs were greater in rural Nova Scotia than in urban areas between 1996 and 2001.
A larger proportion of tenants than owners spend more than 30% of their income on housing, but there are no major differences between rural and urban areas.
Education According to the 1996 Census, 39% of young adults between 15 and 24 years of age did not attend school in rural Nova Scotia. The proportion was 37% in urban Nova Scotia and 35% in Canada. The relative situation in rural Nova Scotia improved in 2001 because the proportion of young Canadians not attending school increased to 37% while the proportion young rural Nova Scotians not attending school decreased slightly to 38%.
In 2001, more than 13% of Nova Scotia’s rural population over 20 years of had not attended school beyond grade 8. The percentage was only 7% in urban Nova Scotia and 10% in Canada. At the other end of the spectrum, 16% of rural Nova Scotians went to university compared with almost 24% of Canadians.
Health status Sources for this section are the Canadian Vital Statistics and the Canadian Community Health Survey from Statistics Canada. Data are available by Health Zones.
The Halifax Health Zone has a higher disability-free life expectancy than all other zones.
The infant mortality rate is lower in Nova Scotia than in the rest of the Canada. However, Zone 1, a rural region in the south-west of the province, and the Cape Breton Zone show
ix infant mortality rates higher than the national figure. Zone 1 also shows the largest proportion, 6%, of low birth weight of all regions.
The proportion of smokers is generally higher in rural communities than in urban areas. More than 30% of the population 12 years of age and older in Health Zone 1 smokes daily or occasionally. That proportion is 28% in Nova Scotia and 26% in Canada.
The rate of obesity in Nova Scotia is 21% while it is not even 15% for the country as a whole. Once again, rural Health Zone 1 has the highest rate, at 28%.
Nova Scotians are less stressed than Canadians and rural Nova Scotians show lower levels of stress than their urban counterparts. Nova Scotia’s population has a higher probable risk of depression than Canada’s population. Rural regions show some of the highest suicide rates in the province.
Natural resources
Because development of natural resources in a sustainable way is vital for every rural or coastal community in Nova Scotia this section examines some traditional indicators in agriculture, fisheries and forestry. Since dependence on economic growth statistics implicitly devalues the importance of our natural capital, we have added some indicators from the Nova Scotia Genuine Progress Indicators to view natural resources development from a sustainable development perspective.
Agriculture
There were almost 4,000 farms in Nova Scotia in 2000, a 12% decline compared with 1995. The vast majority of those farms were family-operated and owned by individuals. The average cash receipts were up by 36%, and half the farms are valued in the $100,000 to $350,000 bracket. Between the last two censuses of agriculture, the number of small
x farms below $50,000 in value decreased by 48% while the number of large farms in the $1 to $1.5 million bracket increased by more than 30%.
Of all the farms in the province, more than 33% were in cattle ranching and farming, almost 20% in fruit farming and 14% in greenhouse, nursery and floriculture production.
The agri-food manufacturing sector employed more than 2,600 people in 2001 and the wages paid totalled over $70 million.
The number of farm operators below 35 years of age dropped by almost 38% between the two censuses in Nova Scotia while the number of producers over 55 years of age increased by 3%. As a result, the average age of a producer in the province was 51 in 2001 compared to 49 in 1996.
According to the Nova Scotia Genuine Progress Index, the total net farm income declined in the province by 46% between 1971 and 1999. The expense-to-income ratio indicates how much producers spend to operate the farm relative to their income from farm products and government payments. It went from 83% in the 1970s to more than 90% in the 1990s due to higher input costs and to stagnant farm gate food prices. In a healthy farming sector, the total outstanding farm loans should not exceed six times the total net farm income over time, yielding a 600% ratio. The current debt to net farm income ratio is 900% in Nova Scotia.
Because biodiversity is the foundation of our productivity and sustainability, GPI Atlantic examined it in Nova Scotia. Compared to the rest of Canada, land use and farm practices in Nova Scotia do not compromise habitat and biodiversity.
xi Fisheries
From 264,000 metric tonnes in 1996, Nova Scotia’s fishermen landed almost 344,000 metric tonnes of fish and shellfish in 2002, an increase of 80,000 metric tonnes. During that period, groundfish fisheries decreased, pelagic fisheries increased to reach the 100,000 metric tonnes mark in 2002, and shellfish fisheries increased steadily to surpass 170,000 metric tonnes. Total values have followed the same pattern of increase. Shellfish represented 83% of the total value of commercial landings in 2002.
There were more than 4,000 fishing vessels operating in 1999, giving work to 11,598 men and women. There are almost 200 seafood production establishments in the Nova Scotia, employing more than 6,000 people.
Total aquaculture production in Nova Scotia was more than 4,600 metric tonnes in 2002, 60% of that tonnage was finfish such as Atlantic salmon or rainbow trout. But aquaculture is still a young industry subject to major changes in short periods. For example, the production value dropped from $50 million to 28$ million between 2000 and 2002. Nevertheless, the industry added more than $10 million to the provincial economy in 2002.
Arguably the greatest economic disaster to hit Newfoundland and Labrador, the cod fishery decline remained hidden from public view until it was too late because we focussed on a narrow set of economic measures that failed to incorporate all the aspects of the fishery. GPI Atlantic is now proposing a framework of indicators that can be monitored and applied on a regular basis to evaluate the well-being and sustainability of the fisheries and marine environment.
Nova Scotia’s natural capital includes the value of fish stocks remaining in the ocean. In 1997, the natural capital of Nova Scotia’s cod stock was about $74 million lower than in 1982. Haddock stock had depreciated by $53 million.
xii The Scotia-Fundy mobile gear groundfish fishery involved fewer actors between 1990 and 1998. The fleet decreased from 350 vessels to 150.
Location closures to shellfish harvesting have increased by an average 34 km2 per year for every year since 1975, and by 38% since 1995 alone.
Forestry
Nova Scotia is 70% forest land. Similarly than with the rest of Atlantic Canada but as opposed to most other Canadian provinces, 69% of productive forest land is privately owned in Nova Scotia. Of the forests, 45% are softwood; 33%, hardwood; and 22%, mixed woods.
Of the 6 million cubic metres of round wood harvested in 2000, more than 5 million were softwood. The total volume harvested in 1990 was 4.6 million cubic metres. There are 126 wood manufacturing and 14 paper production establishments in Nova Scotia. They provide work to more than 5,000 Nova Scotians and pay$220 million in wages.
On a smaller scale, maple products enterprises can have a positive impact on the economies in many rural communities. After a major peak of $1.2 million in 1994 and another of $1.4 million in 1999, the value of maple products dropped to $1 million in 2001.
Christmas trees operations can also have a positive socio-economic impact on rural communities. There are approximately 2,500 producers in the province, with annual production of 2 million trees and 400,000 wreaths. The total sales value of this industry is $30 million a year.
Forest management practices have depleted Nova Scotia’s “natural forest account” as shown by the following GPI indicators.
xiii In 1958, forests that were over 80 years old covered 25% of the province’s forest area. Today they cover only 1% of that area.
Natural species diversity has declined, particularly among some tolerant hardwood species.
Land clearing and increases in clearcutting represent a substantial depreciation of the province’s valuable natural capital assets and a decline in the forests’ economic value. Land clearing and clearcutting mean a loss of large diameter logs and clear lumber that fetch premium market prices, a loss of resilience and resistance to insect infestations that are normally enhanced by species diversity, and a decline in forest watershed protection, which has likely contributed to a 50% decline in shade dependent brook trout.
Nova Scotia’s forests store about 107 million tonnes of carbon, thereby avoiding an estimated $2.2 billion in climate change damage costs. However, the accelerated rate of cutting has drastically reduced the province’s carbon storage capacity by 38%, costing an estimated $1.3 billion in lost value.
Employment per unit of timber harvested has declined by 26% since the 1980s, from an average 1.9 jobs per 1,000 cubic metres in the 1980s to an average of 1.4 jobs in the 1990s.
Crime In 2002, there were more than 74,000 reported Criminal Codes offences, including traffic incidents in Nova Scotia. Of this total, 45% took place in Halifax and 55% outside of the capital.
Between 1997 and 2002, crime rates for Canada and Nova Scotia were similar, but higher in Halifax. The number of crimes per 100,000 of population decreased between 1997 and 2000 and remained relatively constant afterward. In 2002 crime rates were around 7,900 per 100,000 in Canada and Nova Scotia and 9,000 in Halifax.
xiv The Uniform Crime Reporting Survey has three broad categories; property crimes, crimes of violence and other criminal code offences. The last category regroups a vast number of violations such as mischief, arson, gaming and betting, prostitution or kidnapping. In Nova Scotia the rate of property crimes is higher than the rate for the other two categories.
The proportion of crimes of violence or property crimes is lower in rural Nova Scotia than in the capital or the whole province. The proportion of Other Criminal Code offences is 47% of all offences in rural Nova Scotia while it barely surpasses 40% in other regions.
Of the 10,400 reported crimes of violence in 2002, 9,700 were assaults. Since 1999, the number of assaults per 100,000 of population has increased steadily, but the rate of increase has been greater in Halifax.
The number of property crimes is declining in the province but the decline is more significant in rural Nova Scotia than in the metro area. Theft under $5,000 is the most common property crime. The number of reported thefts under $5,000 decreased by 15% in rural Nova Scotia, between 1997 and 2002, and by 10% in Halifax during the same period.
While crime protection spending is increasing the Gross Domestic Product, the GPI perspective underscores that crime is not an asset because of the greater value of the social asset of a peaceful and harmonious society.
Crime costs more than half a billion dollars to Nova Scotians in 1997. Those costs include losses to victims, public spending for the justice system and private spending for crime protection.
xv Nova Scotians now need 50% more police per capita than 30 years ago. Per capita spending on theft insurance has more than doubled in the province since the early 1970s. Because spending on in-store crime prevention equipment or business losses due to shoplifting are passed on to the consumer, it is estimated that Nova Scotia’s households are spending $800 a year in higher prices due to crime.
xvi Definition of rural
What does rural mean? Considerable research on this subject has produced many definitions of this reality, but none has been unanimously accepted among researchers or people seriously interested in the development of rural areas. Each of these definitions has been well documented, but the problem for analysts has been to choose which definition best matches the nature of their research. To begin with, research can be done at various levels. Each of these levels requires a different definition of “rural.” For example, a small area of Nova Scotia would be far less significant for international research than it would be for a provincial study. It is thus appropriate for international research to use geographic units that are relatively larger than those used for provincial studies. This is one of the many factors accounting for the existence of numerous definitions of rural. Another factor that may account for this variety is the actual subject of the study. For example, let us consider two studies, one on the establishment of a National Hockey League franchise and the other relating to primary health care services. To support a hockey team, a region must have a large enough number of potential fans, so the geographic units used for these studies will have to be large, whereas the second study deals with a more local subject and so smaller geographic units will have to be used. Consequently, an analyst has to take account of the objective of his study when choosing a definition of rural. The definition adopted for the following profile uses census subdivisions (CSDs) as a basic geographic unit. CSDs include municipalities (i.e. incorporated towns, rural municipalities, cities, etc. as determined by provincial legislation) and their equivalent in cases such as Indian reserves, Indian settlements and unorganized territories. Because of the numerous local factors analysed in this work, relatively small geographic units have had to be used. Regions considered rural are those that match Statistics Canada’s definition of rural and small town Canada. More specifically, these areas are all CSDs that are not part of census metropolitan areas (CMAs) or census agglomerations (CAs). The latter two concepts correspond to census subdivisions that have a population of 100,000 or more for CMAs and 10,000 or more for CAs, as well as
1 all fringe census subdivisions where over 50% of the labour force goes to work in an urban area. Obviously, areas that are the closest to urban centres have characteristics that differ from those of more remote areas. To take account of this distinction, a relatively recent Statistics Canada concept is used, namely metropolitan area influenced zones (MIZs). This concept is based on the percentage of the labour force in CSDs that commutes to urban areas to hold a job. As its name indicates, the MIZ measures the amount of influence of a metropolitan area over the economy of the surrounding areas. There are four categories of MIZs:
¾ A strong MIZ incorporates CSDs where 30% to 50% of the labour force commutes to urban areas.
¾ The second category (“moderate MIZ”) contains all the CSDs where 5% to 29.9% of the workers commute to major cities.
¾ The third category (“weak MIZ”) encompasses all the CSDs where 0.1% to 4.99% of the labour force commutes to urban areas.
¾ The weakest MIZ (“No MIZ”) consists of CSDs that are not influenced at all by metropolitan areas. For the purposes of this work, the CSDs in Nova Scotia are divided into two categories: • Urban areas: Halifax CMA and CAs • Rural areas: strong, moderate, weak or no MIZs.
As shown on the map on the following page, there are 98 census subdivisions in Nova Scotia. One of them is the Halifax CMA and 21 are part of CAs, which form the urban areas of this profile. 76 CSDs are classified as rural. The rural CSDs exclude Halifax Regional Municipality (HRM) and Cape Breton Regional Municipality (CBRM) as well as Kentville, Truro, New Glasgow and their surroundings.
2 NS Census Subdivisions
Source: Statistics Canada, 2001 Census of population © Minister of Industry, 2003, All rights reserved
The advantage of using this classification is that we have access to the Census data at the CSD level. It will provide good picture of rural areas for most of the indicators that suggested. In some cases, however, data is presented by county to complement information and give a regional perspective. Health zones will be used for the health status section.
3 1. Demographics
1.1 Population
According to the 2001 Census, the total population of Nova Scotia is 908,007, a very slight decrease of 0.1% from the 1996 Census. The rural population, as defined in our methodology that excludes HRM, CBRM, Kentville, Truro and New Glasgow, is 333,207 inhabitants. It represents 36.7% of the provincial population. Using the same definition, the Canadian rural population represents 22% of the total population.
Nova Scotia is urbanizing as the graph below shows. Between the 1991 and 1996 censuses, the urban population increased by more than 2% while the rural population started to decrease. Between 1996 and 2001, the drop in the rural population passed the 2% mark, while the urban population continued to grow.
GRAPH 1.1
Changes in Rural and Urban Population
Urban Rural
3% change 2001- 2% 1996 1% 0% -1% change 1996- -2% 1991 -3%
Source: Statistics Canada, 1991, 1996 and 2001 Census
The way all rural communities are regrouped does not reveal regional differences. Comparing data at the county level provides a better picture. Table 1.1 shows that population declines vary from 0.6 % in Kings County to 10 % in Guysborough. As
4 indicated by the grey shaded rows, the population increased slightly in Lunenburg, Hants, Colchester and Antigonish counties. It grew by almost 5 % in Halifax County.
TABLE 1.1 Population Change by NS Counties 1996-2001 Percentage Population, 1996 Population, 2001 Change Canada 28846761 30007094 4 Nova Scotia 909282 908007 -0.1 Counties Shelburne 17002 16231 -4.5 Yarmouth 27310 26843 -1.7 Digby 20500 19548 -4.6 Queens 12417 11723 -5.6 Annapolis 22324 21773 -2.5 Lunenburg 47561 47591 0.1 Kings 59193 58866 -0.6 Hants 39483 40513 2.6 Colchester 49262 49307 0.1 Cumberland 33804 32605 -3.5 Pictou 48718 46965 -3.6 Guysborough 10917 9827 -10 Antigonish 19554 19578 0.1 Inverness 20918 19937 -4.7 Richmond 11022 10225 -7.2 Victoria 8482 7962 -6.1 Halifax 342966 359183 4.7 Cape Breton 117849 109330 -7.2
Source: Statistics Canada, 1996 and 2001 Census
For an even more detailed analysis, see Annex 1 for the population changes for all the census subdivisions in Nova Scotia.
As expected, the proportion of rural population in the province is decreasing. Between 1996 and 2001, the urban population increased by 2% while the rural proportion dropped by 1%.
5 GRAPH 1.2
Changes in Proportion of Rural and Urban Population
Urban Rural
3,0%
2,0% change 1,0% 2001-1996 0,0% -1,0% change 1996-1991 -2,0% Source: Ibid
1.2 Births and deaths
There were 8,757 live births and 7,803 deaths in Nova Scotia in 2001 for a birth rate of 9.3 per 1,000 estimated population comparing with a death rate of 8.3. This positive growth rate is masking regional differences as shown in Table 1.2. As indicated by the grey shaded rows 12 of Nova Scotia’s 18 counties have a death rate that is exceeding the birth rate. With the exception of Cape Breton, all those counties are mainly rural according to our definition.
6 TABLE 1.2
Births and Deaths by NS Counties, 2001 Total live Rate per 1,000 Rate per 1,000 births estimated Total deaths estimated population population Annapolis 161 7.2 298 13.3 Antigonish 197 9.7 143 7.1 Cape Breton 925 8.2 1,165 10.3 Colchester 474 9.3 419 8.2 Cumberland 236 7.0 355 10.6 Digby 178 8.6 210 10.2 Guysborough 62 6.2 106 10.6 Halifax 3,873 10.4 2,411 6.5 Hants 390 9.1 283 6.6 Inverness 184 8.7 187 8.9 Kings 593 9.6 453 7.3 Lunenburg 365 7.4 484 9.8 Pictou 448 9.1 486 9.8 Queens 91 7.5 148 12.1 Richmond 89 8.3 114 10.6 Shelburne 139 8.2 167 9.9 Victoria 74 8.7 107 12.6 Yarmouth 278 10.1 267 9.7 Province 8,757 9.3 7,803 8.3 Source: Province of Nova Scotia, Vital Statistics, Annual report 2001
1.3 Gender
Nova Scotia had the nation’s lowest ratio of men to women according to the 2001 Census. The Census counted 439,090 men and 468,920 in the province. Put another way, there were 93.6 men for every 100 women, compared with the national average of 96.1.1 As seen in Table 1.3, the ratio of men to women is lower than the provincial figure in Urban Nova Scotia but higher in rural communities, closer to the national ratio.
1 Statistics Canada, Analysis series, Provincial highlights
7 TABLE 1.3 Gender Ratio, Number of Men per 100 Women, 2001 Canada 96.1 Nova Scotia 93.6 Urban NS 92.3 Rural NS 96 Source: Statistics Canada, 2001 Census
1.4 Age
Nova Scotia is one of the two provinces in this country with the oldest population. Between 1991 and 2001, the median age of the province's population rose by 5.4 years, from 33.4 years to 38.8, the province's highest 10-year growth in median age this century. Median age is the point where exactly one half of the population is older, and the other half is younger. The median age of Quebec's population was also 38.8 years while the national average was 37.6. From an urban-rural perspective, the median age in Halifax was 36.6, compared with 40.3 outside the metropolitan area, a marked difference of 3.7 years.2
The age distribution of a population gives us indications of particular needs and its potential for growth. Data from the 1996 and 2001 censuses reveal that the rural Nova Scotia population is older than the urban, provincial and national populations. Compared to other regions, rural Nova Scotia has the lowest share of people less than 15 years old, and the largest share of people between 65 and 74 years old in the last two censuses (See Tables 1.4 and 1.5).
TABLE 1.4
Age Distribution as Percentage of Total Population, 1996 75 and Less than 15 15-24 25-44 45-64 65-74 over Canada 20.46 13.37 32.45 21.49 7.15 5.08 NS 19.81 13.60 31.61 21.88 7.12 5.98 Urban NS 19.97 13.86 32.96 21.39 6.57 5.26 Rural NS 19.55 13.19 29.40 22.66 8.03 7.17 Source: Statistics Canada, 1996 Census
2 Statistics Canada, Analysis series, Provincial highlights
8 TABLE 1.5
Age Distribution as Percentage of Total Population, 2001 75 and Less than 15 15-24 25-44 45-64 65-74 over Canada 19.50 13.65 30.97 24.81 7.30 5.94 NS 18.17 12.99 29.48 25.42 7.34 6.60 Urban NS 18.33 13.54 30.69 24.77 6.77 5.89 Rural NS 17.90 12.04 27.38 26.57 8.34 7.81 Source: Statistics Canada, 2001 Census
The Graph 1.3 regroups the first two population age groups in 2001. It shows a lower proportion of younger people in rural Nova Scotia.
GRAPH 1.3
Age Distribution, 0 to 24 Years Old, 2001
Less than 15 15-24
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0% Canada NS Urban NS Rural NS Source: Statistics Canada, 2001 Census
Graph 1.4 groups the last two age groups of the distribution, and indicates a larger proportion of older people in rural Nova Scotia.
9 GRAPH 1.4
Age Distribution, 65 Years Old and Over, 2001 65-74 75 and over 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% Canada NS Urban NS Rural NS Source: Ibid.
Between 1996 and 2001, the proportion of the youngest age group, those less than 15 years old, declined more in all regions of Nova Scotia than in Canada as a whole. The 15- 24-year-old group shows a larger drop in rural Nova Scotia than in urban areas and the province as a whole, while it increased in Canada (see Graph 1.5). At the other end of the age distribution, the 65 to 74-year-old group rose more quickly in rural Nova Scotia than in other regions.
10 GRAPH 1.5
Distribution Change between 1996 and 2001
75 and over
65-74
45-64 Rural NS Urban NS 25-44 NS Canada 15-24
Less than 15
-4% -2% 0% 2% 4% 6%
Source: Statistics Canada, 1996 and 2001 Census
1.5 Mobility
Slightly more than 36% of Nova Scotia residents changed addresses between 1996 and 2001. The proportion of movers was 29% in rural Nova Scotia and 40% in urban areas of the province. Statistics Canada divides the movers into non-migrants and migrants. Migrants are movers who were living in a different census subdivision, or a different country, five years earlier. On census day 2001, there were 41,825 new people living in rural CSDs (13.4% of population) and 76,625 (14.26%) in urban communities, compared to 1996. (See Table 1.6) The vast majority of migrants in rural communities are from Canada, and with slightly more than 4% came from other countries. In urban Nova Scotia, more than 90% of migrants are from the rest of the country, while almost 10% are foreign immigrants.
11 TABLE 1.6 Migrants, Nova Scotia, 2001 Migrants From Canada From outside Canada Nova Scotia 118,435 109,130 9,310 % of total 13.94% 12.84% 1.10% population % of 92.14% 7.86% migrants
Rural NS 41,825 40,065 1,770 % of total 13.40% 12.84% 0.57% population % of 95.79% 4.23% migrants
Urban NS 76,625 69,070 7,560 % of total 14.26% 12.85% 1.41% population % of 90.14% 9.87% migrants
Source: Statistics Canada, 2001 Census
It’s interesting to see in Table 1.7 and Graph 1.6 that urban Nova Scotia has the same power of attraction for Canadian migrants as for rural Nova Scotia migrants. Over 64% of Canadian migrants in rural Nova Scotia come from within the province, while 35% are
12 from other provinces. In urban Nova Scotia, the proportion is almost reversed, with 44% of migrants from other communities in the province, and 56% from the rest of Canada.
13 TABLE 1.7
Migrants from Canada, 2001 From Nova Scotia From other provinces Nova Scotia 56,130 52,995 % of Canadian 51.43% 48.56% migrants
Rural NS 25,830 14,210 % of Canadian 64.47% 35.47% migrants
Urban NS 30,275 38,780 % of Canadian 43.83% 56.15% migrants Source: ibid.
GRAPH 1.6
Migrants from Canada in the Last Five Years, as a Percentage of All Internal Migrants
From Nova Scotia From other provinces
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0% Nova Scotia Rural NS Urban NS
Source: Ibid.
1.6 Migration net flows
Migration has a strong influence on the demographic structure of an area. In this respect, the most serious problem facing rural Nova Scotia is the emigration of people, particularly young people, to urban centres. The net migration flow is used here to analyse this reality. This number is determined by calculating the difference between the number of people that moved into a particular area and the number that emigrated from
14 the same area during the period from t to t+5 years, and then dividing the result by the population of the area during year t. International immigrants are omitted from the calculation, as are births and deaths. Net flow rates must be interpreted as the percentage change in population of a given age cohort.
The rural areas of Nova Scotia have seen a net decline in their population between 15 and 19 years old as shown in Table 1.8 and Graph 1.7. That was the case for most of the Canadian provinces and the country as a whole. This phenomenon can be attributed to the pursuit of postsecondary education and the low opportunity cost of moving for young people as opposed to older people. In the age cohort of 20-24 years old, rural and urban Nova Scotia experienced small declines in the two periods. That was not the case for rural Canada, which saw an increase in the number of people of that age group. Rural Nova Scotia and Canada benefit from an increase of the age cohort 25-29 for the two periods but the Canadian increase was larger.
TABLE 1.8 Net flows Over Five-Year Period by Age According to Census Data 15-19 years old 20-24 25-29
1986-91 1991-96 1986-91 1991-96 1986-91 1991-96 NS Rural -14.9 -12.7 -5.3 -1.9 1.9 4.8 Urban 6.7 3.5 -2.2 -7.0 -2.4 -4.7 Canada Rural -15.7 -12.6 2.3 6.4 4.9 7.0 Urban 4.8 3.7 -0.6 -1.4 -1.3 -1.7 Source: Statistics Canada, Rural Youth: Stayers, Leavers and Return Migrants
15 GRAPH 1.7
Net Migration Flows, 15-19 Years Old
1986-91 1991-96
10 Urban NS Urban C 5
0
-5
-10
-15 Rural NS Rural C -20
Source: Ibid.
The graph below compares net migration flows between 1991 and 1996 for the three age groups. It clearly shows that the older they get, the more young people are attracted to rural areas.
GRAPH 1.8
Net Migration Flows between 1991- 1996 by Age Group
Rural NS Urban NS
6 4 15-19 2 20-24 25-29 0 -2 -4 -6 -8 -10 -12 -14
Source: Ibid.
16 1.7 Diversity The presence of Aboriginals, Acadians and African-Nova Scotians makes Rural Nova Scotia a region rich in cultural diversity. But representing this diversity statistically can be difficult because the complexity of one identity is not easily capture in Census questions. Those groups are identified by three different questions in the Census and we have used three different definitions generally accepted for each of the group. Nevertheless the numbers presented in this section may be different from the one use by associations representing Aboriginals, Acadians or African-Nova Scotians in Nova Scotia. In an effort to avoid confusion and to be as precise as possible the definition that we are using for each group is explain in the text.
The Aboriginal Identity definition refers to those persons who reported identifying with at least one Aboriginal group, i.e. North American Indian, Métis or Inuit, and/or those who reported being a Treaty Indian or a Registered Indian as defined by the Indian Act of Canada and/or who were members of an Indian Band or First Nation. As shown in Table 1.9, 2.29% of Nova Scotia Rural population identified itself as Aboriginal. This proportion is only 1.64% in cities.
TABLE 1.9 Aboriginal Population in Nova Scotia, Aboriginal Identity Definition, 2001 Total population Aboriginal Rural Nova Scotia 328,705 7,540 % of rural population 2.29%
Urban Nova Scotia 568,690 9,325 % of urban population 1.64% Source: Statistics Canada, 2001 Census
For Acadians, the ethnic origin definition refers to the ethnic or cultural group(s) to which the respondent's ancestors belong. According to that definition there were 11,170 Acadians in the province in 2001. At the same question about ethnic origin we may assume that a lot of Acadians answer French so the previous figure underestimates
17 the number of Acadians in the province. In Atlantic Canada it is generally agreed that the Acadian identity is closely related to the mother tongue. In the 2001 Census, 36,745 Nova Scotians indicated French as their only, or one of their mother tongues3. Of this number, more than 23,000 live in rural areas and they represent more than 7% of rural population. More than 13,000 of the respondents who said that French is their mother live in urban Nova Scotia where they represent 2.36% of total population. (See Table 1.10 and Graph 1.9)
TABLE 1.10 Acadian Population in Nova Scotia, Ethnic Origin and Mother Tongue Definitions, 2001 Total population Acadian French mother tongue Rural Nova Scotia 328,705 6,970 23,250 % of rural population 2.12% 7.07%
Urban Nova Scotia 568,690 4,200 13,430 % of urban population 0.74% 2.36% Source: Statistics Canada, 2001 Census
More than 91% of rural Nova Scotians report that English is their mother tongue, this proportion is almost 94% in the cities. Almost 2% of rural respondents indicate a Non- official language as their mother tongue but that proportion is almost 4% in Urban Nova Scotia. Graph 1.9 illustrates differences of proportion for French and Non-official languages in rural and urban Nova Scotia
3 The same number is used in the Acadian and Francophone Community Profile of Nova Scotia that you can find on the Fédération des communautés francophones et acadiennes du Canada (FCFA) website at www.fcfa.ca/1031.html
18 GRAPH 1.9
French and Non-Official Mother Tongue as a Percentage of the Population, 2001 Rural Urban
8% 6% 4% 2% 0% French Non-official
Source: Ibid.
For African-Nova Scotians the visible minority definition refers to the visible minority group to which the respondent belongs. The Employment Equity Act defines visible minorities as "persons, other than Aboriginal peoples, who are non-Caucasian in race or non-white in colour". According to this definition, African-Nova Scotians represent close to 3% of total population in urban areas but only 1.22% of rural population. (See Table 1.11)
TABLE 1.11 African-Nova Scotian Population, Visible Minority Definition, 2001 Total population African-Nova Scotian Rural Nova Scotia 328,705 4,000 % of rural population 1.22%
Urban Nova Scotia 568,690 15,665 % of urban population 2.75% Source: Statistics Canada, 2001 Census
19 There are approximately 4,000 African-Nova Scotians living in Rural Nova Scotia. As shown in Table 1.12 (based on the visible minority population), they are representing more than 4% of the population in 5 rural communities and more than 2% in 13 of them.
TABLE 1.12 African-Nova Scotian Population in Rural Nova Scotia African-Nova Census Subdivisions Total population Scotians % of total Shelburne [T]* 1,995 180 9.02% Guysborough [MD]** 5,110 315 6.16% Digby [MD] 8,270 485 5.86% Yarmouth [T] 7,410 340 4.59% Mulgrave [T] 905 40 4.42% Lockeport [T] 650 25 3.85% Annapolis Royal [T] 555 20 3.60% Windsor [T] 3,485 120 3.44% Port Hawkesbury [T] 3,650 90 2.47% Oxford [T] 1,280 30 2.34% Springhill [T] 3,755 80 2.13% Clark's Harbour [T] 945 20 2.12% West Hants [MD] 13,765 280 2.03% * Town, ** Municipal District Source: Ibid.
1.8 Immigration According to the 2001 census, immigrants represent more than 18 % of the Canadian population. This proportion is only 4.6 % in Nova Scotia. Immigrants represent only 3.5% of the total population of rural Nova Scotia and 5.2% of urban areas (see Table 1.13).
TABLE 1.13 Immigrants as Percent of Total Population, 2001 Number of % of total population immigrants Canada 5,448,480 18.4% NS 41,315* 4.6% Urban NS 29,570 5.2% Rural NS 11,410 3.5% * Rural and urban numbers do not add up to the provincial total because the source is the 20% sample data from 2001 Census Source: Statistics Canada, 2001 Census
20 In addition to immigrants, there were a total of 110 non-resident agricultural seasonal workers in 2001 in Nova Scotia (see Table 1.14). They came from Barbados and Jamaica. According to the Human Resources Development Department they worked between 5 and 6 days a week, from 50 to 60 hours per week, on 11 farms in the province.
TABLE 1.14
Non Resident Agricultural Seasonal Workers in Nova Scotia Barbados Jamaica Total # of farms 1999 43 43 3 2001 101 101 9 2002 73 15 88 9 2003 57 53 110 11 Source: Human Resources Development Canada, 2003
21 2. Employment and Income
2.1 Employment
In 2001 the Nova Scotia population over 15 years old was slightly over 732,000, with a total of 451,000 people in the labour force, and close to 281,000 who were not. The labour force has grown by 2.8% between the last two censuses, a growth of 4% in urban Nova Scotia and 0.6% in rural areas.
TABLE 2.1 Employment Data, Number of Persons, 1996
Population over In the labour Employed Unemployed Not in labour 15 years of age force force
Canada 22,628,925 14,812,700 13,318,740 1,493,960 7,816,225
Nova 719,975 438,970 380,785 58,185 281,000 Scotia
Urban NS 449,360 281,840 248,750 33,080 167,515
Rural NS 270,490 157,090 131,995 25,040 113,425
TABLE 2.2 Employment Data, Number of Persons, 2001
Population over In the labour Employed Unemployed Not in labour 15 years of age force force
Canada 23,901,360 15,872,075 14,695,135 1,176,935 8,029,290
Nova 732,365 451,375 402,295 49,080 280,990 Scotia
Urban NS 463,170 293,320 264,515 28,800 169,865
Rural NS 269,040 158,010 137,760 20,285 111,090
22 The participation rate is used to measure the proportion of a population that is likely to work. As defined in the 2001 Census dictionary, participation rate refers to the labour force in the week prior to Census Day, expressed as a percentage of the population 15 years of age and over.
The participation rate for a particular group (rural or urban population, age, sex, marital status, geographic area, etc.) is the labour force in that group, expressed as a percentage of the population 15 years of age and over in that group. The labour force includes people aged 15 and over, apart from those living in institutions, who were either employed or unemployed during the week preceding the day of the census.
In 2001 the participation rate in Canada was almost 8% more than in rural Nova Scotia. This rate was higher in urban areas, bringing the provincial participation rate to 61.6%.
TABLE 2.3 Participation Rate by Region 1996 2001 Canada 65.5% 66.4% NS 61.0% 61.6% Urban NS 62.7% 63.3% Rural NS 58.1% 58.7% Source: Statistics Canada, 1996 and 2001 Census
Employment rates are calculated by dividing the total number of people employed by the total population 15 years and older. According to the 2001 census, the employment rate in rural Nova Scotia is over 10 points below the Canadian rate. On a positive note, the rural employment rate rose by 2.4% between 1996 and 2001, compared to 1.7% in urban areas.
23 TABLE 2.4
Employment Rate, (Percent) 1996 2001 Change Canada 58.9 61.5 2.6 NS 52.9 54.9 2.0 Urban NS 55.4 57.1 1.7 Rural NS 48.8 51.2 2.4 Source: Ibid.
The unemployment rate fell in all regions between 1996 and 2001 but the largest drop was in rural Nova Scotia with 3.1%
TABLE 2.5
Unemployment Rate, (Percent) 1996 2001 Change Canada 10.1 7.4 -2.7 NS 13.3 10.9 -2.4 Urban NS 11.7 9.8 -1.9 Rural NS 15.9 12.8 -3.1 Source: Ibid.
But as shown in Graph 2.1 a gap of more than 5% persists between rural Nova Scotia and Canadian unemployment rates. The difference between urban and rural Nova Scotia is 3%. GRAPH 2.1
Unemployment Rate, 2001
14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% Canada NS Urban NS Rural NS Source: Ibid.
24 2.2 Full-time and part-time work Over 52% of Canadians 15 years of age and over, with employment income, work the whole year, full-time4. In urban Nova Scotia, the percentage is higher than the Canadian figure, as shown in Table 2.6, but the proportion of full-time workers is below 44% in rural Nova Scotia. Slightly more than 45% of Canadians work part of the year or part- time5, but the proportion is almost 54% in rural Nova Scotia.
TABLE 2.6 Percentage of Total Population 15 Years and Over With Employment Income, 2001 Full-year, full-time Part-year, part-time Canada 52.18 45.21 Nova Scotia 49.60 48.25 Urban NS 52.78 45.21 Rural NS 43.77 53.83 Source: Statistics Canada, 2001 Census
Between 1996 and 2001, all regions saw the number of full time workers increase. As shown in Graph 2.2, the increase in full-time workers was greater in Canada than in Nova Scotia. However, in rural Nova Scotia, the number of full-time workers increased by 12.37%, a higher figure than in urban areas. During the same period, the number of part- time workers declined by 4.55% in rural areas.
4 The term full-year full-time workers refers to persons 15 years of age and over who worked 49-52 weeks (mostly full time) in 2000 for pay or in self-employment 5 Worked part year or part time: worked less than 49 weeks or worked mostly part time in 2000.
25 GRAPH 2.2
Full Time and Part Time Work Change between 1996 and 2001, by Region
Full time Part time
15%
10%
5%
0% Canada Nova Scotia Urban NS -5% Rural NS -10%
Source: Statistics Canada, 1996 and 2001 Census
2.3 Income assistance The number of persons on income assistance has dropped steadily in the last 3 years. In February 2000, over 38,000 people were on income assistance in the province, and in September of 2003, there were over 32,000, a real decrease of 15%. (See Graph 2.3) The Nova Scotia Department of Community Services reports 8,654 income assistance cases in rural areas, compared with 22,190 in cities. The total number of recipients is 14,780 in rural and coastal communities and 38,399 in urban areas. Income assistance cases and recipients represent a smaller percentage of the rural population as illustrated in Graph 2.4. The percentage of cases by region is calculated using the 15 to 64-year-old population because most Community Services clients are adults in that age group. Recipients include children, so we present the proportion using the 0 to 64 years old population. At 65 years of age, people start receiving Canada Pension Plan benefits so they are no longer on provincial income assistance.
26 GRAPH 2.3
Total Number of Eligible Income Assistance Cases D ecem ber 19 9 9 to S eptem ber 2003
39,000
38,000
37,000
36,000
35,000
34,000
33,000
32,000
31,000
30,000 Dec - Mar - Jun- Sep- Dec - Mar - Jun- Sep- Dec - Mar - Jun- Sep- Dec - Mar - Jun- Sep- 99 00 00 00 00 01 01 01 01 02 02 02 02 03 03 03
Source: Nova Scotia Department of Community Services
GRAPH 2.4
Income Assistance Cases and Recipients as a Percentage of the Population
Cases (% of 15-64 pop.) Beneficiaries (% of 0-64 pop.) 10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
0% Rural Urban
Source: Ibid.
27 2.4 Employment structure The labour force distribution provides a good picture of a region’s industrial structure. Table 2.7 shows that rural Nova Scotia’s economy relies much more on the primary sector than all the other regions. Over 12% of the workforce is in the primary sector in rural Nova Scotia, whereas it is only 2.67% in urban Nova Scotia. The manufacturing sector, which includes food processing, employs almost 15% of workers in rural areas, twice the proportion of the province’s urban areas. The largest employer in every region is the service sector. But here again the proportions vary greatly, with more than 84% of urban residents of Nova Scotia working in the services sector, and only 66% in rural communities. Graph 2.5 illustrates the differences between the rural and urban distribution of the labour force.
TABLE 2.7 Labour Force Distribution by Sector and Region, 2001 (in Percent) Canada Nova Scotia Urban NS Rural NS Primary sector 4.74 5.94 2.67 12.03 Construction 5.64 6.05 5.51 7.04 Manufacturing 13.96 9.99 7.32 14.90 Services 75.66 78.02 84.49 66.07 Source: Statistics Canada, 2001 Census
28 GRAPH 2.5
Labour Force Distribution by Sector, Rural and Urban NS, 2001 Urban NS Rural NS
90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Primary sector Construction Manufacturing Services
Source: Statistics Canada, 2001 Census
A new classification system for industries was adopted in 1997 and used for the first time in the 2001 Census. The North American Industry Classification System (NAICS) provides enhanced industry comparability among the three North American Free Trade Agreement trading partners (Canada, United States and Mexico). Unfortunately this means that labour force distributions cannot be compared between the 1996 and 2001 censuses.
Table 2.8 shows the percentages of workers in each industry for the four regions. Manufacturing and retail trade are the largest employers but their positions differ from one region to another. Manufacturing is the primary employer in rural Nova Scotia but retail trade is first in the cities. In second place, retail employs 12% of the work force in rural areas, followed by agriculture, forestry, fishing and hunting at 11.18%.
29 TABLE 2.8 Labour Force Distribution by Industry, 1997 North American Industry Classification System, 2001 (in Percent) Nova Canada Urban NS Rural NS Scotia Agriculture, forestry, fishing and hunting 3.64 5.17 1.94 11.18 Mining and oil and gas extraction 1.09 0.76 0.72 0.85 Utilities 0.76 0.61 0.70 0.42 Construction 5.64 6.05 5.50 7.04 Manufacturing 13.96 9.99 7.32 14.90 Wholesale trade 4.40 3.71 4.12 2.97 Retail trade 11.27 12.35 12.54 12.00 Transportation and warehousing 4.97 4.53 4.83 4.00 Information and cultural industries 2.68 2.40 2.96 1.38 Finance and insurance 4.08 3.15 3.78 1.98 Real estate and rental and leasing 1.66 1.51 1.78 0.99 Professional, scientific and technical services 6.30 4.26 5.17 2.60 Management of companies and enterprises 0.09 0.07 0.10 0.03 Administrative and support, waste management 3.89 4.61 5.48 3.01 and remediation services Educational services 6.55 7.16 7.39 6.74 Health care and social assistance 9.70 11.08 11.66 10.03 Arts, entertainment and recreation 1.95 1.83 2.04 1.48 Accommodation and food services 6.72 7.22 7.28 7.11 Other services (except public administration) 4.80 4.95 4.99 4.87 Public administration (including armed forces) 5.81 8.55 9.68 6.45 Source: Ibid.
Graph 2.6 illustrates the differences in some industries across the four regions that we study. There are relatively minor differences in the retail trade sector between Canada, Nova Scotia, and urban and rural areas. However we can see large differences between urban and rural Nova Scotia in the primary and manufacturing sectors. The graph also shows that a very small percentage of the rural workforce is working in professional, scientific and technical services as well as in information and cultural industries.
30 GRAPH 2.6
Employment Distribution by Selected Industries, 2001
16%
14%
12%
10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
0% Canada Nova Scotia Urban NS Rural NS
Agriculture, forestry, fishing and hunting Manufacturing Retail trade Information and cultural industries Professional, scientific and technical services Source: Ibid.
2.5 Income Average income values are commonly used as an estimate of the economic well- being of the inhabitants of a given area. In this profile we use the average income of individuals 15 years of age and over who have an income. Statistics Canada publishes average incomes for every census subdivision. For a better overview of their distribution, the average incomes of the 98 census subdivisions of Nova Scotia are plotted in Graph 2.7. We can see that the Halifax Regional Municipality has the highest average income with $29,589, and Pomquet and Afton have the lowest with $10,029. The Town of Lunenburg is the rural CSD with the highest average income at $28,608, while subdivision A in Cumberland County (the peninsula just west of Parrsboro) has the lowest amongst non-native communities at $16,854. The graph also shows that a lot more rural than urban CSDs have an average income below $20,000 a year.
31 GRAPH 2.7
Distribution of Average Incomes, NS CSDs, 2000
Rural CSDs Urban CSDs
$35 000
Halifax $30 000 Lunenburg, T $25 000
$20 000 Canso Parrsboro $15 000 Eskasoni 3 $10 000 Pomquet And $5 000 Afton
$0 Census subdivisions
Source: Statistics Canada, 2001 Census
Regional differences are shown by average income by county in Table 2.9. They are in order of decreasing average income. Halifax County tops the list with $29,586, which is $183 below the Canadian average income. Counties farther away from Halifax have significantly lower average incomes. In Guysborough County, the average income of $19,301 is more than 10,000 dollars lower than the Canadian figure.
32 TABLE 2.9 Average Income of Individuals, Population 15 Years and Over With Income, in Dollars, 2000 Difference with Canada 29,769 Canada Nova Scotia 25,297 -4472 Counties Halifax 29,586 -183 Antigonish 24,212 -5,557 Pictou 24,142 -5,627 Lunenburg 23,851 -5,918 Colchester 23,833 -5,936 Shelburne 23,607 -6,162 Kings 23,599 -6,170 Hants 23,221 -6,548 Yarmouth 22,766 -7,003 Inverness 22,516 -7,253 Queens 22,137 -7,632 Victoria 21,366 -8,403 Cumberland 21,218 -8,551 Cape Breton 20,766 -9,003 Annapolis 20,615 -9,154 Richmond 20,106 -9,663 Digby 20,029 -9,740 Guysborough 19,301 -10,468 Source: Ibid.
Median income is generally thought to be a more accurate estimate because it is not unduly influenced by extreme values, whether they are high low. The median is the point where half of the population have a lower income and half have a higher one. In 2000 the Canadian median income was $22,120 while it was $18,735 in Nova Scotia. The median incomes for 2000 are available for every Census subdivision in the 2001 Census. (Consult Annex 2) From those median incomes and population numbers we estimate the median income at $20,684 in urban Nova Scotia and only $16,758 in rural Nova Scotia. (See Graph 2.8)
33 GRAPH 2.8
Median Income of Individuals With Income, 2000
$25 000 $20 684
$20 000 $16 758
$15 000
$10 000
$5 000
$0 Canada Nova Scotia Urban NS Rural NS
Source: Ibid.
The highest median income is observed in the Halifax Regional Municipality ($22,989) and the lowest in the First Nation of Whycocomagh ($8,416). The community of Stewiacke has the highest median income of the rural areas with $19,980.
Table 2.10 compares median income by county between 1995 and 2000. When comparing the two years in 2000 constant dollars, we see that Victoria and Queens county residents experienced a decline of their purchasing power. All other counties show an increase in their real median income, from 0.82% in Annapolis to 8.39% in Cumberland.
34 TABLE 2.10
Median Income by County, in Dollars, 2000 and 1995
1995 Real growth 2000 1995 in 2000$ % current $ 1995-2000 Canada 22120 18891 20780 1340 6.45 Nova Scotia 18735 16000 17600 1135 6.45 Counties Halifax 22986 19970 21967 1019 4.64 Hants 18633 15822 17404 1229 7.06 Colchester 18177 15535 17089 1089 6.37 Kings 17592 15407 16948 644 3.80 Pictou 17368 14623 16085 1283 7.97 Lunenburg 17019 14863 16349 670 4.10 Antigonish 16946 14979 16477 469 2.85 Cumberland 16522 13858 15244 1278 8.39 Shelburne 16473 14505 15956 518 3.24 Inverness 16059 14462 15908 151 0.95 Yarmouth 15944 14333 15766 178 1.13 Victoria 15862 14464 15910 -48 -0.30 Cape Breton 15831 13749 15124 707 4.68 Digby 15499 13506 14857 642 4.32 Annapolis 15403 13889 15278 125 0.82 Queens 15194 14491 15940 -746 -4.68 Richmond 14292 12860 14146 146 1.03 Guysborough 14124 12222 13444 680 5.06 Source: Ibid.
35 3. Housing
As shown in Graph 3.1, more than 78% of rural residents own their homes, while 65% of residents in urban areas of Nova Scotia are owners. Less than a fifth of rural Nova Scotians are tenants, as opposed to a third of urban residents GRAPH 3.1
Tenants and Owners by Region, Nova Scotia, 2001 Rural Urban 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% % of households 20% 10% 0% Tenants Owners
Source: Statistics Canada, 2001 Census
36 The cost of housing is significantly lower in rural than in urban Nova Scotia. Statistics Canada calculates average gross rent and owner’s major payments6 in all Census Subdivisions (CSDs). (See Annex 3.) Averaging all CSDs averages reveals that urban owners pay $605 per month for a house, which is $85 more than in rural Nova Scotia. Urban tenants pay $53 more than do their rural counterparts. (See Graph 3.2.)
GRAPH 3.2
Average Gross Rent and Major Payments by Region, 2001
Rural Urban 700 600 500 400 300 dollars 200 100 0 Gross rent Major payments
Source: Ibid.
6 Average monthly total of all shelter expenses paid by households that own their dwelling. The owner’s major payments include, for example, the mortgage payment and the costs of electricity, heat and municipal services.
37 Increases in shelter costs, however, were greater in rural Nova Scotia than in urban areas between 1996 and 2001. As shown in Table 3.1, gross rent increased by 7.5% and major payments by 14.8% in rural areas between the last two censuses. Increases in gross rent and owner’s major payments in urban areas were only 2.7% and 1.7%, respectively, for the same period.
TABLE 3.1 Gross Rent and Major Owner’s Payments by Region, in Current Dollars, 1996–2001
RURAL NS 1996 2001 Difference Percent 442 475 33 7.5% Gross rent Major 453 520 67 14.8% payments
URBAN NS 514 528 14 2.7% Gross rent Major 595 605 10 1.7% payments Source: Ibid.
The proportion of households spending more than 30% of their income on rent or owner’s major payments is generally accepted as an indicator of housing affordability. As shown in Table 3.2, in every region, many more tenants spend over 30% of their income on rent than owners spending over 30% on major payments. More than 46% of urban tenants spend more than 30% of their income on shelter costs, as opposed to 43% in rural Nova Scotia. For owner households the difference is smaller since almost 14% dedicate 30% of income to major payments while 13.3% of owner households do so in rural areas.
38 TABLE 3.2 Tenants and Owners Households Spending More Than 30% of Income on Gross Rent or Major Payments, 2001 Spending more Spending more Total tenants Total owners than 30% on than 30% on households households rent major payments Canada 3,868,115 39.6% 7,411,215 16% NS 103,075 45.5% 252,020 13.6% Urban NS 77,585 46.4% 148,920 13.8% Rural NS 25,520 42.8% 103,090 13.3% Source: Ibid.
Aggregating data from tenants and owners reveals that 18.8% of rural Nova Scotia households spend more than 30% of their income on shelter costs, a very small increase from 1996. As shown in Table 3.3, that proportion decreases slightly for urban Nova Scotia, the province and the country. Housing costs still remain almost 6% higher in urban Nova Scotia than in rural communities.
TABLE 3.3 Households Spending More Than 30% of Income on Shelter Costs, Percent of All Households 1996 2001 Difference Canada 25.9% 23.5% -2.4% NS 23.0% 22.5% -0.5% Urban NS 25.9% 24.7% -1.2% Rural NS 18.6% 18.8% 0.2% Source: Ibid.
39 4. Education
In a new economy based on knowledge, school attendance and schooling levels give a good indication of the development potential of a population. The following sub- sections examine those two statistics from the 1996 and 2001 censuses.
4.1 School attendance In 1996, 34.77% of young Canadians between 15 and 24 years old were not attending school. The percentage was almost 37% in Nova Scotia, with a difference of more than 3% between urban and rural Nova Scotia. Almost 39% of young rural Nova Scotians did not attend school, according to the 1996 census. The school attendance rate was over 59% in all three regions except in rural Nova Scotia, where it was 58.37%.
TABLE 4.1 School Attendance 1996, as a Percentage of Population 15 to 24 Years Old Not attending Attending full time Attending part time Canada 34.77 59.11 6.12 Nova Scotia 36.99 59.16 3.85 Urban NS 35.84 59.59 4.52 Rural NS 38.93 58.37 2.68 Source: Statistics Canada, 1996 Census
The relative situation of rural Nova Scotia improved between the last two censuses. According to 2001 Census data, almost 37% of Canadians between the ages of 15 and 24 years old are not going to school. This represents an increase of more than 2%. In Nova Scotia, 37.3% of young people are not going to school. The proportion is almost identical in the cities but it is over 38% in the province’s rural communities. (See Table 4.2).
40 TABLE 4.2 School Attendance 2001, as a Percentage of Population 15 to 24 Years Old Not attending Attending full time Attending part time Canada 36.92 57.07 6.01 Nova Scotia 37.30 59.09 3.61 Urban NS 36.78 59.17 4.03 Rural NS 38.30 58.93 2.81 Source: Statistics Canada, 2001 Census
In rural Nova Scotia, the percentage of people not attending school dropped by 0.63 between 1996 and 2001. The difference between the percentages of people who are attending school full time in urban and rural Nova Scotia is very small. The proportion is lower in Canada, a little over 57%, but a lot more people are attending school part time (6.01% comparing with 3.61% in Nova Scotia).
According to Graph 4.1, all regions experienced an increase in the proportion of people not attending school, except rural Nova Scotia. The percentage of 15-24 year-olds attending school decreased everywhere but in rural communities where it rose by more than 0.5%.
GRAPH 4.1
School Attendance Changes Between 1996 and 2001
Not attending Attending full time
2.5% Canada 2.0% 1.5% Urban NS 1.0% NS 0.5% 0.0% -0.5% -1.0% Rural NS -1.5% -2.0% -2.5%
Source: Statistics Canada, 1996 and 2001 Census 4.2 Level of schooling and completion
41 A major change was made to the 2001 census with regard to the highest level of schooling. The results refer to the population 20 years and older. In previous censuses, levels of schooling were published for populations 15 years and older. Statistics Canada made the change because it was argued that the majority of young people between 15 and 20 years are still at school working to get a certificate or a diploma. It is therefore impossible to compare the two periods with the data that we now have.
In rural Nova Scotia, 13.33% of residents did not attend school beyond Grade 8. The percentage is only 7.26 in urban Nova Scotia, while the national and provincial figures are 10.45% and 9.49% respectively (see Table 4.3). A larger proportion of the rural population has a trades certificate compared to urban Nova Scotians or Canadians. But the numbers for post-secondary education are reversed. Over 22% of Canadians and 20% of rural Nova Scotians over 20 years of age went to college, compared to 18.85% in rural Nova Scotia. The difference is even greater for university. Some 27.58% of urban Nova Scotians did some semesters in university, compared to only 15.91% of rural residents (see Graph 4.2 for visual comparisons).
TABLE 4.3 Highest Level of Schooling by Region, Percentage of Population Over 20 Years Old, 2001 Less than Trades Grades 9 to 13 College University grade 9 certificate Canada 10.45 31.33 11.78 22.54 23.90 Nova Scotia 9.49 31.97 15.30 19.96 23.29 Urban NS 7.26 29.99 14.58 20.61 27.58 Rural NS 13.33 35.40 16.51 18.85 15.91 Source: Statistics Canada, 2001 Census
42 GRAPH 4.2
Highest Level of Schooling by Region, 2001
Canada Nova Scotia Urban NS Rural NS 40%
35%
30%
25%
20%
15%
10% % of pop. over 20 years old 5%
0% Less than grade 9 Grades 9 to 13 Trades certificate College University Source: Ibid.
High school graduation rates are similar for all the regions of Nova Scotia but are lower than for Canada as a whole (see Table 4.4). There is a difference of almost 2% in favour of rural over urban areas with respect to the proportion of the population that has a trades certificate. The percentage of the population with a college diploma is 1.73% higher in urban communities. Finally, 18.57% of urban Nova Scotians have a bachelor’s or higher degree compared to only 9.64% of rural residents (see Graph 4.3).
TABLE 4.4 Highest Level of Graduation by Region, Percentage of Population Over 20 Years Old, 2001 Bachelor's High School Trades College University degree or higher Canada 13.91 11.78 16.18 2.73 16.86 Nova Scotia 9.75 15.30 15.91 2.68 15.29 Urban NS 9.65 14.58 16.55 2.83 18.57 Rural NS 9.93 16.51 14.82 2.42 9.64 Source: Ibid.
43 GRAPH 4.3
Diplomas and Certificates by Region, 2001
Canada Nova Scotia Urban NS Rural NS 20% 18% 16% 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% % of pop. over 20 years old 0% High School Trades College University Bachelor's degree or higher
Source: Ibid.
44 5. Health status
5.1 Geographic definitions In this section we will use comparable Canadian vital statistics and the Canadian Community Health Survey from Statistics Canada. Those data are available by health zone. There are six health zones in Nova Scotia, as can be seen in Figure 5.1. Digby, Yarmouth, Shelburne, Queens and Lunenburg counties are part of zone 1, which is totally rural, without census agglomerations (CA). Zone 2 is made up of the rural counties of Annapolis and Kings, and includes the CA of Kentville. The only small town in zone 3 is Truro. Cumberland, Colchester and the eastern part of Hants County make up the remainder of zone 3. Zone 4 consists of Pictou, Guysborough, Antigonish and Richmond counties and the only urban area is New Glasgow. The Cape Breton Regional Municipality is part of zone 5, which also includes the two rural counties of Inverness and Victoria. Finally, the most urban area is Zone 6 with the Halifax Regional Municipality and the western part of Hants County.
45 FIGURE 5.1
5.2 Health Indicators One of the statistics that we will examine is disability-free life expectancy. It is a more comprehensive indicator than the traditional life expectancy because it introduces the concept of quality of life. As shown in Table 5.1, Zone 6 (Halifax) has a higher life expectancy than all other zones. In zone 5, which includes all Cape Breton except Richmond County, people can expect to live without disability almost 7 years less than the rest of the Canadian population. (See Graph 5.1)
46 TABLE 5.1 Disability-free Life Expectancy in Years, 1996 Canada Difference with 68.6 Canada Nova Scotia 65.5 -3.1 Zone 1, Digby Yarmouth, 65.4 -3.2 Shelburne, Queens Lunenburg Zone 2, Annapolis, Kings 66 -2.6 Zone 3, Cumberland, 65.6 -3 Colchester, East Hants Zone 4, Pictou, Guysborough, 66.1 -2.5 Antigonish, Richmond Zone 5, Inverness, Victoria, 61.8 -6.8 Cape Breton Zone 6, Halifax, West Hants 66.8 -1.8 Source: Statistics Canada, Canadian Vital Statistics
GRAPH 5.1
Life Expectancy, 1996, Difference with Canadian Average 0 -1 -2 -3 6 s 2 4 -4 1 3 year -5 -6 -7 -8 5 Health Zones
Source: Ibid.
Table 5.2 shows that the infant mortality rate in Nova Scotia is lower than in the country as a whole. However, zone 1, which is totally rural, and zone 5 in Cape Breton, show higher rates than the Canadian total. Mostly rural, zone 4 has the lowest infant mortality rate in the province.
47 TABLE 5.2 Infant Mortality, Rate per 1,000 Live Births, 1997 Canada Difference with 5.5 Canada Nova Scotia 4.9 -0.6 Zone 1, Digby, Yarmouth, Shelburne, Queens, 5.8 0.3 Lunenburg
Zone 2, Annapolis, Kings 3.9 -1.6 Zone 3, Cumberland, 5.5 0 Colchester, East Hants Zone 4, Pictou, Guysborough, 3.7 -1.8 Antigonish, Richmond Zone 5, Inverness, Victoria, 6.6 1.1 Cape Breton Zone 6, Halifax, West Hants 4.4 -1.1 Source: Statistics Canada, Canadian Vital Statistics
Zone 1, which is completely rural, has the highest proportion of low birth weights of all the regions at almost 6%. It is also the only Nova Scotia zone above the Canadian percentage. The lowest proportion of low birth weights is in zone 4, a mostly rural area that includes the census agglomeration of New Glasgow and its surroundings. (See Graph 5.2)
TABLE 5.3 Low Birth Weight (Less Than 2,500 Grams), Percentage of all Live Births, 1997 Canada Difference with 5.8 Canada Nova Scotia 5.6 -0.2 Zone 1, Digby, Yarmouth, Shelburne, Queens, 5.9 0.1 Lunenburg
Zone 2, Annapolis, Kings 5.6 -0.2 Zone 3, Cumberland, 5.6 -0.2 Colchester, East Hants Zone 4, Pictou, Guysborough, 4.9 -0.9 Antigonish Richmond Zone 5, Inverness, Victoria, 5.4 -0.4 Cape Breton Zone 6, Halifax, West Hants 5.7 -0.1 Source: Statistics Canada, Canadian Vital Statistics
48 GRAPH 5.2
Low Birth Weight by Health Zone, 1997
7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% Percentage of all live births Canada NS123456
Source: Ibid.
5.3 Health behaviours A large body of research has established that many lifestyle choices and behaviours can have serious negative effects on our health. At the top of the list is smoking, the single largest preventable cause of death7. According to the Canadian Community Health survey done in 2000/2001 there were more than 222,000 smokers in Nova Scotia and the proportion of smokers was higher in rural areas. Table 5.4 gives the percentage of the population 12 years and over who smoke on a daily or occasional basis. The percentage of smokers is less than 26% in Canada and slightly more than 28% in Nova Scotia. The proportion of smokers is higher than the Canadian total in all health zones except zone 4 (Pictou, Guysborough, Antigonish and Richmond counties) (See Graph 5.3). The most rural health zone, zone 1, shows a percentage of smokers of almost 31%, which is 5 percentage points over the Canadian rate and almost 3 points over the provincial rate.
7 Statistics Canada, The Health of Canada’s Communities, Catalogue number 82-003
49 TABLE 5.4 Percentage of Daily or Occasional Smokers 2000-2001 Canada 25.9% Nova Scotia 28.2% Zone 1 30.9% Zone 2 29.8% Zone 3 29.8% Zone 4 23.6% Zone 5 29.6% Zone 6 27.2% Source: Statistics Canada, Canadian Community Health Survey, 2000/01
GRAPH 5.3
Smoking, Difference with Canadian Percentage, by Health Zone
6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% -1% NS123456 -2% -3%
Source: Ibid.
In the same vein, research has identified obesity as a major risk factor for numerous chronic conditions including diabetes, arthritis, high blood pressure, heart disease, colorectal cancer and respiratory problems. According to international standards, people are obese when their body mass index (BMI) is higher than 30. Table 5.5 shows the percentage of the population between 20 and 64 years old, excluding pregnant women, that is obese. In Nova Scotia the obesity rate is 21%, compared to less than 15% in the rest of the country. Once again zone 1 has the highest obesity rate of all the health
50 zones at almost 28% (See Graph 5.4). All the other zones, including the urban zone of Halifax, show higher obesity rates than the national figure.
TABLE 5.5 Obesity Rate, Percent of Population 20- 64, 2000-2001 Canada 14.9% Nova Scotia 21.0% Zone 1 27.9% Zone 2 20.5% Zone 3 21.5% Zone 4 22.5% Zone 5 24.0% Zone 6 17.6% Source: Statistics Canada, Canadian Community Health Survey
GRAPH 5.4
Obesity Rate by Health Zone, 2000-2001
30% 1 4 5 25% NS 2 3 20% 6 15% 10% 5% 0%Canada
Source: Ibid.
51 5.4 Psycho-social factors High levels of stress are not good for one’s health. People who experience high levels of personal stress are at higher risk for certain diseases. Long-term research with consistent groups reveals that stress is predictive of chronic conditions such as migraine, ulcers, arthritis, respiratory disease and back problems8. Table 5.6 shows that Nova Scotians are less stressed than Canadians as a whole. The percentage of the Nova Scotia population over 18 years old that reports a lot of stress is 22.5%. Zone 5 in Cape Breton is above the provincial average, with 25%, and mostly rural zones 2 and 3 have percentages of 24.3% and 22.8%, respectively. All the other zones have lower stress levels. The completely rural Zone 1 has the lowest stress level at 20.9%. TABLE 5.6 Percentage of Population Over 18 Years Old That is Experiencing Quite A Lot of Stress, 2001 Canada 26.1% Nova Scotia 22.5% Zone 1 20.9% Zone 2 24.3% Zone 3 22.8% Zone 4 21.4% Zone 5 24.9% Zone 6 22.1% Source: Statistics Canada, Canadian Community Health Survey
Nova Scotia’s population has a higher probable risk of depression than the Canadian population. The proportion is almost 10% in Zone 5 (Inverness, Victoria, and Cape Breton counties) and almost 9% in Zone 3 (Cumberland, Colchester and East Hants) (see Table 5.7). Those last two figures are 3 and 2 points respectively above the Canadian average. The only place where the risk of depression appears to be lower is zone 4, but Statistics Canada recommends caution with the 6% probable risk of depression in that region.
8 Statistics Canada, The Health of Canada’s Communities, Catalogue number 82-003
52 TABLE 5.7 Probable Risk of Depression, 2001 Canada 7.1% Nova Scotia 8.7% Zone 1 8.3% Zone 2 8.2% Zone 3 8.9% Zone 4 6.0%* Zone 5 9.8% Zone 6 8.3% * Use with caution Source: Ibid.
The province of Nova Scotia is compiling causes of death in every District Health Authorities (DHA) which are identified in Figure 5.2. As shown in Table 5.8 the cause of death by suicide is almost at 10 per 100,000 inhabitants in Nova Scotia but it fluctuate a lot going from more than 22 per 100,000 in District 5 (Cumberland County) to 7.83 in District 9 (Halifax)
TABLE 5.8 Cause of Death: Intentional Self-harm (suicide), Standardized Mortality Rate per 100,000 Inhabitants
2000 2001 2002
Nova Scotia 7.05 9.65 9.92 District 1 11.17 10.39 17.55 District 2 7.32 15.08 9.4 District 3 11.1 14.09 9.37 District 4 9.65 4.82 10.31 District 5 18.2 5.34 22.21 District 6 8.77.946.37 District 7 1.55 15.31 12.56 District 8 5.93 9.24 12.63 District 9 5.01 8.61 7.83 Source: Nova Scotia Department of Health
53 FIGURE 5.2
Graph 5.5 shows differences between provincial rate and every district. District 6 in Pictou County and District 9 that include Halifax County and West Hants have the lowest suicide rates.
54 GRAPH 5.5
Suicide Rate per 100,000 of Population, 2002
25
20
15
10
5
0 Nova DHA 1 DHA 2 DHA 3 DHA 4 DHA 5 DHA 6 DHA 7 DHA 8 DHA 9 Scotia
Source: Nova Scotia Department of Health
55 6. Natural resources
As seen in Section 2 of this Profile, the primary sector employs a large proportion of the workforce in rural communities compared to urban areas. Over 11% of the rural labour force works in agriculture, forestry, fishing and hunting. The percentages vary from 2% to 5% in urban Nova Scotia, in the province and in the country (See Table 2.8 for more details).
Harvesting of natural resources in a sustainable manner is vital for every rural or coastal community in Nova Scotia. To illustrate this, the following section will examine some traditional indicators in agriculture, fisheries and forestry. But the current reliance on economic growth statistics alone as the basic measure of prosperity and progress implicitly devalues the importance of our natural and social capital, including natural resources, wealth, and environmental quality. That is why we will complete the picture, from a sustainable development point of view, by including 3 of the 22 indicators from the Nova Scotia Genuine Progress Indicators (GPI). We will use the Soils and Agriculture, Forests and Marine Environment/Fisheries indicators.
6.1 Agriculture There were fewer than 4,000 farms in Nova Scotia in 2000 according to the last Census of Agriculture, a drop of over 500 farms, or 11.9%. Inversely the total gross farm receipts increased by nearly 20%, pushing the average receipts to over $117,000, an increase of almost 36% over the 1995 figure (see Table 6.1).
TABLE 6.1 Number of Farms and Farm Receipts, Nova Scotia, 1995 and 2000 1995 2000 Change % Total number of farms 4453 3923 -530 -11.90% Total gross farm receipts 384,333,174 $ 460,424,979 $ 76,091,805 $ 19.80% Average receipts 86,309 $ 117,366 $ 31,057 $ 35.98% Source: 1996 and 2001 Census of Agriculture
56 As shown in Graph 6.1, the drop in the number of small farms with cash receipts of less than $5,000 was greater than declines in other categories (the first two sets of bars of the graph). At the other end of the spectrum, the number of farms with cash receipts over $250,000 increased between the last two censuses of agriculture.
GRAPH 6.1
Number of Farms by Cash Receipts, 1995 and 2000
1995 2000
1000 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 Under $2,500 to $5,000 to $10,000 to $25,000 to $50,000 to $100,000 $250,000 $500,000 $2,500 $4,999 $9,999 $24,999 $49,999 $99,999 to to and over $249,999 $499,999
Source: 1996 and 2001 Census of agriculture
A look at the capital value of farm operations indicates that almost half the farms in Nova Scotia are in the $100,000 and $350,000 bracket (shaded rows of Table 6.2). The number of farms with a small capital value has dropped significantly since 1996. As seen in Table 6.2, the number of farms worth less than $50,000 fell by almost 48%, and the number of farms worth between $50,000 and $100,000 fell by 40%. During the same period, there were gains in the over-$500,000 category, as the number of farms worth between $1M and $1.5M increased by 30%. A new category was introduced in the 2001 Agricultural Census; there were 105 farms with capital value over $2M in Nova Scotia.
57 TABLE 6.2 Number of Farms by Capital Value, Nova Scotia, 1996 and 2001 1996 2001 Change % Under $50,000 494 258 -236 -47.77% $50,000 to $99,999 666 401 -265 -39.79% $100,000 to $199,999 1174 984 -190 -16.18% $200,000 to $349,999 970 929 -41 -4.23% $350,000 to $499,999 440 430 -10 -2.27% $500,000 to $999,999 495 558 63 12.73% $1,000,000 to $1,499,999 139 182 43 30.94% $1,500,000 and over 75 76 1 1.33% $2,000,000 and over 105 Source: Ibid.
The average market value of a farm in Digby County is over $760,000 dollars. It is closer to $600,000 in Kings and $500,000 in Hants County (see Table 6.3 for all counties).
TABLE 6.3 Number of Farms and Capital by County, by Order of Average Capital by Farm NS, 2001 Counties in order of Number Total farm capital; Average capital by average capital by farm of farms Market value in $ farm in $ Digby 109 82,931,164 760,836 Kings 644 378,260,141 587,360 Hants 336 180,751,041 537,950 Colchester 452 205,541,112 454,737 Antigonish 235 104,038,569 442,717 Halifax 152 62,937,698 414,064 Victoria 35 13,844,613 395,560 Cumberland 539 208,700,631 387,200 Annapolis 250 94,857,012 379,428 Pictou 274 97,067,465 354,261 Inverness 138 45,504,557 329,743 Queens 46 14,336,396 311,661 Guysborough 90 27,382,607 304,251 Cape Breton 97 29,337,829 302,452 Yarmouth 112 31,488,868 281,151 Lunenburg 370 103,189,852 278,891 Richmond 17 3,010,914 177,113 Shelburne 27 3,861,695 143,026 Source: Ibid.
58 Agriculture is reasonably diversified in Nova Scotia with cattle ranching and farming accounting for over 33% of all farms in the province. Fruit and tree nut farming operations represent slightly less than 20% of all farms while greenhouse nursery and floriculture production make up less than 14% (see Graph 6.2).
GRAPH 6.2
Cattle ranching and farming Farm Type Distribution in NS Fruit and tree nut farming
Greenhouse, nursery and floriculture production Other crop farming Cattle ranching Other animal production and farming, 33.85% Vegetable and melon farming
Poultry and egg production Greenhouse, Sheep and goat farming nursery and Fruit and tree floriculture nut farming, Hog and pig farming production; 19.68% 13.74% Oilseed and grain farming Source: Ibid.
Organic farming is in the early stages in Nova Scotia. There were only 23 certified organic farms in the province in 2001 and 20 of them were producing fruits and vegetables, 10 were selling animal products, 6 were in field crops like grains and oilseeds and 5 were in other products such as maple syrup and herbs.
In the manufacturing sector, 310 establishments are producing food of all kinds in Nova Scotia. Based on the North American Industry Classification System (NAICS), 47 of them are in dairy, meat, fruit and vegetable processing and are directly linked to the province’s agriculture sector. Economic data on fruit and vegetable processing is not disclosed due to the confidentiality requirements of the Statistics Act, but Table 6.4
59 contains information on dairy and meat products. Those two types of businesses employ over 2,600 people. The dairy product sector has a total payroll of $29 million, and the meat product sector accounts for $41 million. The value of dairy and meat product shipments was over $576 million in 2001, representing close to 7% of all manufacturing sector shipments in Nova Scotia.
TABLE 6.4 Selected Agri-food Manufacturing, NS, 2001 Number of Total Total wages Shipments establishments employees ($ thousands) ($ thousands) Dairy products 18 1,130 29,234 313,237 Meat products 16 1,481 41,487 263,024 Total 47 2,611 70,721 576,261 Source: Statistics Canada, Annual Survey of Manufactures (ASM)
As shown in Table 6.5, the number of farm operators (according to Statistics Canada terminology) has dropped by more than 11% in Nova Scotia compared to 10% in Canada. In the under-35-years-old age group, the number of farmers plummeted by almost 38% in the province, against 35% for the country as a whole. In Nova Scotia the percentage of farmers over 55 years of age rose by almost 3% between the last two censuses. Graph 6.3 clearly shows the small number of young farmers in relation to the total number of farm operators.
60 TABLE 6.5 Number and Age of Farm Operators, 1996 and 2001 Canada Nova Scotia Total number of operators; Census year - 1996 385610 5725 Total number of operators; Census year - 2001 346195 5080 -39415 -645 -10.22% -11.27%
Age - Under 35 years, 1996 61060 765 Age - Under 35 years, 2001 39920 475 -21140 -290 -34.62% -37.91%
Age - 35 to 54 years, 1996 200175 3080 Age - 35 to 54 years, 2001 185570 2675 -14605 -405 -7.30% -13.15%
Age - 55 years and over, 1996 124380 1880 Age - 55 years and over, 2001 120705 1930 -3675 50 -2.95% 2.66% Source: Ibid.
GRAPH 6.3
Farm Operators by Age in Nova Scotia
3500 3000 2500 2000 1996 1500 2001 1000 500 0 Under 35 years 35 to 54 years 55 years and over
Source: Ibid.
61 As a result, the average age of a Nova Scotia farmer is 51 years, compared to 49.1 in 1996. The average age in Canada was 49.9 years at the time of the 2001 census and it was 48.4 in 1996.
As seen in Graph 6.4, the vast majority of farms are family operations with one individual owning the farm. Among farms with more than one owner, 15% have partnerships without a written agreement and close to 6% have a partnership with a written agreement. Over 10% of farms are family corporations while fewer than 2% are non-family corporations.
GRAPH 6.4
Operating Arrangements, 2001, % of NS Farms
Sole proprietorship
Partnership without a written agreement Partnership with a written agreement Sole Family corporation proprietorship, 66.28% Non-family corporation
Other
Source: Ibid.
62 6.2 Sustainable farming
As seen in previous section, total cash receipts, which are the conventional indicators for assessing agricultural growth, have risen significantly between the last two censuses of agriculture. In fact, farm cash receipts have risen steadily over the last 30 years. But this indicator alone does not give us an accurate picture of the economic viability of agriculture in Nova Scotia.
Genuine Progress Index (GPI) Atlantic proposed a series of 5 indicators to measure farm economic viability in the province. The guiding principle is that the ability to generate an adequate income from farming enables farmers to devote resources to quality food production and to land stewardship that is essential to maintaining the value of natural capital in agriculture.9
1. Net farm income While total cash receipts increased by 12% between 1971 and 1999, total net farm income for the province as a whole declined by 46%. The decline of this primary indicator signifies declining viability for the agriculture sector.
2. Expense to income ratio This indicator highlights the margin farmers have to work with if they want to avoid going further into debt. The expense-to-income ratio tells us how much farmers are spending to operate the farm relative to their income from farm products and government payments. The sustainability threshold for farming is estimated at 80%. Moving towards a 100% expense-to-income ratio would indicate a zero margin and no effective return on investment or the farmer’s time. In Nova Scotia, the expense ratio has risen from an average of 83% in 1970s to over 90% in the 1990s due to higher input costs (fertilizer, farm labour and farm mortgage costs) and stagnant farm gate food prices.
9 The Nova Scotia Genuine Progress Index, Soils and Agriculture Accounts, Part 1: Farm Viability and Economic Capacity in Nova Scotia
63 3. Return on investment Of all the types of farms surveyed by the GPI Atlantic team in Nova Scotia, only the dairy farmers are making a reliable return on investment. Poultry farm returns were not available but are likely to be similar to the dairy results. Apple and beef producers surveyed consistently show a return of less than zero.
4. Total Debt to Net Farm Income Ratio The debt to net farm income ratio is an indicator of the risk adopted by the farming sector relative to the income generated and to the capacity of farmers to make payments on debt. Based on historical Nova Scotia averages, this ratio should be 600% in a healthy farming sector. In other words, total outstanding farm loans should not exceed six times total net farm income over time. In the long run, an increasing ratio over time indicates that farm owners have to accept higher risks in order to achieve the same income. Total farm debt in Nova Scotia is currently more than 900% of total net farm income, a three-fold increase in less than 30 years.
5. Direct Government Payments to Producers and “Dependency Ratio” If market mechanisms worked perfectly, farmers would be paid enough for the food they produce so that farm subsidies and other direct government payments to farmers would not be necessary. Direct government payments to producers should not, therefore, be considered artificial supports for farmers alone, but compensation for market failures. Since 1971 total net farm income before government payments declined by nearly 60%, from an average of about $60 million to $25 million in constant 1997 dollars. This provoked increased dependence on government payments. However, direct payments to farmers also declined from an average $17 million in the early 1980s to $11 million in the late 1990s. Taking both trends into account, the “dependency ratio”, which is government payments to farms as a proportion of total net farm income, has more than doubled since 1971, as a result of a faster decline in income relative to the change in direct payments.
64 In a second report, GPI Atlantic addressed the issue of agricultural biodiversity. For the author, the production of food depends on the services nature provides, such as pest control, nutrient cycling, pollination, waste decomposition, soil formation, nitrogen fixation, bioremediation of toxins and many others.10 Biodiversity is the foundation of the earth’s productivity. We might be able to produce food with less biodiversity but it would become progressively less efficient. When we evaluate progress in agriculture we must also include evaluations of the state of agricultural biodiversity. In the report, GPI Atlantic regroups indicators of the state of biodiversity on farms into two categories: habitat and value of ecosystem services.
One way to ensure agricultural biodiversity is to monitor the living environments or habitats of organisms known to be beneficial. In modern agriculture, land use and farm practices can affect those habitats. Land use in Nova Scotia is generally favourable for habitat compared to Canadian averages. For example the proportion of farmland in annual crops is 11%, almost unchanged in 50 years, while the proportion of land in tame hay or pasture has risen from 10 to 24% during the same period. In Canada the proportion of farmland in annual crops is between 40 and 45%.
Many studies report reduced habitat quality when farmers use a lot of synthetic fertilizer and pesticides. Compared with other provinces, trends in farm practices do not compromise habitat and biodiversity in Nova Scotia. In 2000, an average of 22% of the total farm area was fertilized in the province as a whole and 36% in Kings County. The proportion of farm area fertilized that same year in Prince Edward Island was 42%.
The GPI report presents 29 different ecosystem services and estimates replacement value for some of them (see full GPI report for more details). The variety of ecosystem interactions between plants, animals and micro-organisms maintains the quality, relative stability and habitability of the environment by purifying and regulating air, water, and land resources. When the value of ecosystem services declines, as for example when organic matter is depleted, farmers may have to purchase synthetic fertilizer to
10 GPI Agriculture accounts, Part two: Resource capacity and use: the value of agricultural biodiversity.
65 compensate for lost services. The GPI Atlantic team asked what it would cost to replace the work that ecosystems or specific organisms are doing on the farm. Preliminary and rather crude estimates show that replacing the work done by a myriad of beneficial organisms would cost Nova Scotians millions of dollars annually.
The following paragraphs present the estimated value of the ecological services of some beneficial organisms.
Earthworms provide a wide range of valuable and well-documented ecosystem services in agricultural environments. They are the equivalent of composting facilities, taking in mineral soil and other debris, and churning out a valuable, pH balanced, well-aggregated, nutrient-rich product on which crops thrive. The hypothetical restoration value of earthworms’ castings is estimated at $6.2 billion annually and it would cost the farmers $3.6 billion per year to replace processed soil by commercial compost.
Pollination services provided by bees are essential for natural and agricultural ecosystems. For the Nova Scotia lowbush blueberry crop alone, the value of honeybee pollination is $2.7 million per year.
Ladybugs are well known for their voracious appetite for common aphid pests. The pest- control work done by ladybugs is estimated to be worth $13.8 million per year on Nova Scotia farms. Their services are more efficient than pesticide applications because they are continuous, as opposed to a one-time application.
During their larval stage, green lacewings are efficient predators of pest insects. Most of their victims are aphids but they also control two-spotted spider mites, mealy bugs, mite eggs leafhoppers, small caterpillars and thrips. It would cost $760 per hectare to replace those little larvae.
In conclusion, we can say that biodiversity is an essential asset for the farming sector in rural Nova Scotia. According to the author of the GPI report, most farmers recognize the
66 value of the work done by beneficial organisms and many will put in the effort to maintain or establish biodiversity. The farmers themselves become a link in the web of biodiversity, by supporting and enhancing its productive functions.
6.3 Fisheries
Total commercial landings in Nova Scotia fisheries have increased steadily in the last seven years. Starting with over 264,000 metric tonnes in 1996, the province’s fishermen landed almost 344,000 tonnes of fish and shellfish in 2002, an increase of 80,000 metric tonnes.
As Graph 6.5 shows, groundfish landings dropped, pelagic fisheries climbed to 100,000 tonnes in 2002, while shellfish landings have been constantly rising, topping 170,000 tonnes at the end of the period.
GRAPH 6.5
Nova Scotia Commercial Landings in Metric Tonnes
Groundfish Pelagic Shellfish
200,000 180,000 160,000 140,000 120,000 100,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 0 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
Source: Department of Fisheries and Oceans
67 Total values increased in the same way, and then declined in 2002. The value of commercial landing was around $465 million in 1996 and $783 million in 2001 before the drop of 2002. The economic importance of the shellfish fisheries for coastal communities is clearly shown in Graph 6.6. In fact shellfish represented 83% of the total value of commercial landings in 2002.
GRAPH 6.6
Values of Commercial Landings in NS, in Thousands of Dollars
Groundfish Pelagic Shellfish
700,000 600,000 500,000 400,000 300,000 200,000 100,000 0 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
Source: Department of Fisheries and Oceans
There were 4,179 fishing vessels operating in 1999, providing work for 11,598 men and women. As shown in Graphs 6.7 the numbers were steady between 1987 and 1995 but started to drop after that.
68 GRAPH 6.7
Number of Fishers and Vessels in NS
Fishers Vessels
16,000 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999
Source: Ibid.
There are close to 200 seafood production establishments employing 6,281 persons. The total payroll of seafood plants in the province is $117 million. Seafood product shipments were $849 million in 2001, over 10% of all Nova Scotia’s manufacturing shipments.11
6.4 Aquaculture
There are currently 484 active or proposed aquaculture sites in Nova Scotia. In 2002, their total production was 4,614 metric tonnes and almost 60% of that tonnage was finfish, such as Atlantic salmon or rainbow trout. Being a relatively young industry, aquaculture is still subject to major changes in a short period of time. During the peak year of 2000, 11,620 tonnes of aquaculture fish and shellfish were produced in the province. Production then dropped sharply, by 60% between 2000 and 2002 (see Table 6.6).
11 Statistics Canada, Annual Survey of Manufactures (ASM), 2001
69 TABLE 6.6 Aquaculture Production, Nova Scotia, 1997-2002, in Metric Tonnes 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 Atlantic Salmon 1,112 1,785 791 3,425 2,614 1,951
Rainbow trout and steelhead salmon 624 1,038 3,924 4,681 2,986 434
Speckled and Rainbow Trout/Atlantic Salmon Hatcheries 304 1,151 1,266 1,099 189 302 U-Fish 14 18 20 10 16 6
Total finfish 2,054 3,992 6,001 9,215 5,805 2,693
Blue Mussels 577 835 945 1,251 1,619 1,073 American Oyster 264 245 463 651 420 340 Ocean and Bay Quahogs 14 10 16 306 402 374 Sea Scallops 16 21 25 19 8 16 European Oysters 24 132 313 122 17 9
Total shellfish 895 1,243 1,762 2,349 2,466 1,812
Confidential species* 55 115 111 56 82 109
Grand total 3,004 5,350 7,874 11,620 8,353 4,614 * Note: To maintain the confidentiality of individual producers, the data on species with less than three producers are not disclosed. Depending on the years, the species are: artic char, clams, eels, Irish moss/dulse, sea urchins, marine plants, halibut, cod, tilapia or bay scallops.
Source: NS Agriculture and Fisheries
The value of aquaculture sales follows the same path, as shown in Graph 6.8. From $50 million in 2000, the production value dropped to $28 million in 2002. Atlantic salmon represents 43.9% of total aquaculture production, other finfish make up 22.6%, and shellfish account for 20.2% of the value, while confidential species represents 13.2% of aquaculture value in the province.
70 GRAPH 6.8
Aquaculture Production Value, Nova Scotia
Finfish Shellfish Confidential species Total 60,000
50,000
40,000
30,000
20,000 '000 of dollars 10,000
0 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
Source: NS Agriculture and Fisheries
As shown in Graph 6.9, total employment levels fell between 1998 and 2002. There were 1,175 aquaculture jobs at the beginning of the period and 989 at the end. In 2002, more than half of the jobs were part-time, for a duration of less than 6 months (See Graph 6.10).
GRAPH 6.9
Aquaculture Employment in Nova Scotia
Full Time Part Time - Less - 6mths Part Time - More - 6mths TOTALS
1500
1000
500 # of jobs of # 0 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
Source: Ibid
71 GRAPH 6.10
Type of Aquaculture Employment Distribution, NS, 2002
Part Time - More - Full Time, 6mths, 22.5% 26.3%
Part Time - Less - 6mths, 51.2%
Source: Ibid.
In the fall of 2002, the Agriculture Division of Statistics Canada published an aquaculture value added account to measure the economic production of goods and services by aquaculture establishments. Economic production can be defined as a process that creates value or adds value to existing goods.12 Gross value added at factor cost is residually derived by subtracting product inputs, or purchases from other businesses, from the gross output of the sector.
In Nova Scotia, the total operating revenue of all aquaculture enterprises in 2002 was $24.5 million (See Table 6.7). If we subtract the value of all the goods and services that establishments bought, ($14.4 million), the gross value added by the sector to the provincial economy was $10.1 million.
12 Aquaculture Statistics, 2001, Statistics Canada, Catalogue no.23-222-XIE
72 TABLE 6.7 Summary of Aquaculture Value Added Account, 2002, in Thousand of Dollars Total sales of aquaculture products/services 24,300 Total product expenses 14,500
Change in inventory Subsidies 100 value -raw materials 100 Other operating revenue 100
Total operating revenue 24,500
Change in inventory value - goods 0
B. Total of product A. Gross output 24,500 14,400 inputs
C. Gross value added (factor cost)= A (Gross output) – B (Total of product 10,100 inputs) Source: Statistics Canada, Aquaculture Statistics.
Even if Statistics Canada says that the value added account is experimental in nature and should be used with caution, we believe it illustrates the positive economic impact that aquaculture has on coastal communities. It should be added that Nova Scotia aquaculture enterprises paid $6 million in salaries and wages in 2002.
6.5 Sustainable fisheries
In the fisheries sector, the conventional economic indicators presented in the previous sections, such as landings and sales value, do not give the complete picture. Despite media reports of steady catches, high exports and profitability for companies harvesting cod stocks in Atlantic Canada in the late 1980s, this particular fishery collapsed a few years later and shows no sign of recovery, more than 10 years after a disaster that was economically and socially devastating for numerous coastal communities. The decline of groundfish stocks remained out of the limelight, while we focussed on a narrow set of economic measures that failed to incorporate all aspects of the fishery, including healthy fish stocks, within a healthy ecosystem that supports strong fishing communities and a sustainable fishing economy.
73 GPI Atlantic is proposing a framework of indicators that can be monitored and applied on a regular basis to evaluate the well-being and sustainability of the fisheries and the marine environment. Each indicator in the GPI Fisheries and Marine Environment Accounts measures one particular aspect of the marine system, covering the ecosystem, socioeconomic progress, the well-being of coastal communities, and the institutional integrity of fishery and ocean management. The indicators are therefore organized into major categories, reflecting the fundamental components of well-being and sustainability that must be simultaneously achieved within a process of sustainable development: Ecological Indicators Socioeconomic and Community Indicators Institutional Indicators.13
Because of the complexity of interconnections within the marine ecosystem and among the humans reliant on that ecosystem, it does not seem possible to draw simple conclusions from the proposed indicators. There are major problems like the collapse of the groundfish fisheries as mentioned at the beginning of this section, but some indicators are stronger and other ones do not reveal any trend.
The following paragraphs highlight some results from the GPI Fisheries and Marine Environment Accounts:
• Many fish species, especially many groundfish species, have declined in recent decades, while others, notably shellfish, have not. Shrimp, for example, appears to have increased in biomass since 1995 and the lobster biomass (as reflected in catch levels) appears to have been relatively constant since 1990.
• Natural capital includes the value of fish stocks remaining in the ocean. In 1997, the natural capital of Nova Scotia cod stocks was about $74 million lower than in 1982. In 1997, Nova Scotia’s haddock stocks had depreciated by about $53
13 The Nova Scotia GPI Fisheries & Marine Environment Accounts, A preliminary set of ecological, socio- economic and institutional indicators for Nova Scotia’s fisheries and marine environment. Anthony Charles, Heather Boyd, Amanda Lavers and Cheryl Benjamen, January 2002
74 million compared to the level of the early 1980s. The measured ‘depreciation’ of cod stocks around Nova Scotia since 1990 appears minimal, but caution is needed in interpreting natural capital calculations, since serious resource shortages are masked by price rises when natural capital values are assessed according to changing market prices.
• Employment ‘per fish’ taken from the sea can be measured as the number of people employed in Nova Scotia’s fishing industry per unit of harvest (i.e. per tonne of fish caught), or per unit of landed value (i.e. per million dollars in landed value). The first of these indicators has been increasing fairly steadily since the mid-1980s, due largely to the decline in total landings by weight, while the employment per unit of landed value declined in the late 1980s and early 1990s, and then began to increase in the late 1990s.
• Population trends of North Atlantic right whales are subject to uncertainty, but there is general agreement that the current population now (just under 300) is above what it was at its lowest level, but far below levels that existed prior to harvesting.
• It has been estimated that closures of shellfish harvesting grounds have increased by an average of 34 square kilometres per year every year since 1975, and by 264 sq. km. since 1995 alone, a 38% increase in less than five years. This indicates a deterioration of water quality in the estuaries.
• Concentrations of PCBs, DDE, HCB and dieldrin – chemical contaminants present in the marine environment surrounding Nova Scotia – in seabird eggs have all declined overall between 1972 and 1996, suggesting some ‘genuine progress’ in this aspect of marine environmental quality.
• The annual value of ecosystem services of the oceans off Nova Scotia is calculated very roughly as $US119 billion (1997 dollars). The enormity of this
75 figure highlights the fact that the total value of ecosystem services provided by Nova Scotia’s marine environment is clearly not captured in the fishery’s GDP. Indeed the value estimated is more than 340 times greater than Nova Scotia’s fishery GDP ever reached.
• Distribution of access to fisheries, and of the benefits of the fisheries, is an important part of a GPI account. DFO data show that in one part of the fishery, the ITQ managed Scotia-Fundy mobile gear groundfish fishery, ownership of ‘quota’ (representing effective access to the fishery) became concentrated in fewer hands between 1990 and 1998. This arose through a decline in the total fleet size, from roughly 350 vessels to under 150, and a less even distribution of the catches among existing boats. By contrast, the distribution of catches in the lobster fishery, while not entirely even, shows no trend over time, remaining roughly constant. However, in terms of access to the fishery, there is apparently a recent trend toward the buying up of control of lobster licenses, increasing effective ownership concentration.
• The dependence of Nova Scotia fishers on various marine species has varied over the years. There is some evidence of a reduced reliance on single fisheries, and thus a more diverse set of fishery livelihood options, over the course of the past century. This may imply greater resilience within fishing communities, a positive trend. On the other hand, the steadily increasing dependence on the shellfish fishery following the groundfish collapse in the early 1990s may be a danger signal of reduced resilience in the future if the shellfish fishery should be threatened for ecological reasons.
• There is no consistent trend suggesting that Nova Scotia fisheries are becoming more or less safe overall for fishers, but the current average of 50 accident claims per year for every 1,000 fishers employed (a 5% rate) remains high.
76 • Available data suggest that in the three years leading up to the early 1990s groundfish fishery collapse, there were significant cuts to DFO expenditures on basic scientific work (such as ecosystem and ocean science studies), and on surveillance and enforcement of fishery regulations. Assessing the sufficiency of institutional resources is an important part of a GPI analysis, and requires more extensive development of institutional indicators.
6.6 Forestry
The total area of the province is 5.6 million of hectares. Of this, 3.9 million hectares or close to 70% of Nova Scotia territory is forest land (see Graph 6.11). Agricultural land represents over 7% of the area and freshwater 5%.
GRAPH 6.11
Area Classification, NS, 2002
Forest Agricultural Other Freshwater
5.4%
17.7% 69.6%
7.3%
Source: Natural Resources Canada, The State of Canada’s Forests, 2002-2003
77 In line with Atlantic Canada but in a very different situation than most of Canadian provinces, the vast majority of productive forest land is privately owned in Nova Scotia as shown in Graph 6.12.
GRAPH 6.12
Timber Productive Forest Land Ownership in Nova Scotia, 1999 3% Private Provincial Federal
28%
69%
Source: Ibid.
As illustrated in Graph 6.13, 45% of Nova Scotia’s forest type is softwood compared to 33% for hardwood and 22% for mixed wood.
78 GRAPH 6.13
Type of Forests, NS, 1999
Softw oods Hardw oods Mix ed 22%
45%
33%
Source: Ibid.
Over 6 million cubic meters of round wood were harvested in Nova Scotia in 2002. In 1990, the total volume harvested was 4.6 million m3. As shown in Graph 6.14, softwood is the principal species harvested in the province.
GRAPH 6.14
Volume of Roundwood Harvested by Species Group in Nova Scotia
Softw oods Hardw oods
7000 6000 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 0 thousands of cubic metres 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
Source: National Forestry Database
79 As shown in Table 6.8, Nova Scotia has 126 wood manufacturing establishments and 14 paper production facilities. Both sectors provide work for over 5,000 Nova Scotians, paying around $220 million in wages. At more than $1.5 billion in 2001, wood and paper shipments represented almost 19% of all manufacturing shipments of the province.
TABLE 6.8 Wood and Paper Product Manufacturing, NS, 2001 Number of Total Total wages Shipments establishments employees ($ thousands) ($ thousands) Wood 126 2,872 88,388 527,603 Paper 14 2,154 132,210 1,040,468 Total 140 5,026 220,598 1,568,071 Source: Statistics Canada, Annual Survey of Manufactures (ASM)
In 2002, more than half of the forest industry’s billion dollar exports were newsprint and other types of paper. Another 20% of exports were softwood lumber products.
On a smaller scale, maple products businesses can have a positive impact on many rural communities’ economies. After two major peaks in 1994 and 1999, total production dropped to less than 100,000 litres in 2001. The value of maple products followed the same trend, $989 thousand in 2001. (See Graph 6.15)
80 GRAPH 6.15
Maple Products in Nova Scotia
Value Quantity
1,400,000 160,000 1,200,000 140,000 1,000,000 120,000 100,000 800,000 80,000
600,000 Litres Dollars 60,000 400,000 40,000 200,000 20,000 0 0 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001
Source: National Forestry Database
In the same way, Christmas trees operations can have a positive socio-economic impact on rural communities. The Natural Resource Department of Nova Scotia estimates that there are 2,500 growers in the province. For most of them, Christmas tree growing is a secondary source of income because only 400 growers are considered full time. The annual production is 2 million trees and 400,000 wreaths on a 30,000 hectares area for a total sales value of 30 million dollars. The industry is employing 2,000 part time workers. 95% of Christmas tree production is exported and 80% of exports are in United States.
6.7 Sustainable forestry A healthy forest with living trees does not have any value in our conventional wealth measurement systems such as the Gross Domestic Product. Only a cut tree that you can process into valuable lumber or paper products creates economic activity in that system. Because remaining trees have no value, companies and forest workers have, for the last two centuries, removed the best trees when they were not simply land clearing or clear- cutting. This forest management practice had undermined the “natural forest account” of Nova Scotia. The ecological integrity, health, and economic value of Nova Scotia forests have continued to decline sharply since the 1950s, when the Department of Lands and
81 Forests inventory noted that the quality of the province's forests had already decreased substantially.14
The following are ecological, economic and social indicators of the overall state of Nova Scotia forests from the Genuine Progress Index forest accounts.
In 1958, forests more than 80 years old covered 25% of the province's forest area. Today they cover only 1% of forest area. Forests more than 100 years old covered 8% of the province's forest area in 1958; today they cover only 0.15% of forested land.
Natural species diversity has declined with a particularly sharp decline among some tolerant hardwood species. According to forest inventories, merchantable oak, beech, and yellow birch, for example, have all declined significantly
White and red pine occupy less than 50% of their former range in this region.
Land clearing and recent increases in clearcutting and the loss of both mature forests and natural species diversity in Nova Scotia forests represent a substantial depreciation of the province's valuable natural capital assets, and a decline in forest economic value due to: • loss of valuable species; • loss of large diameter logs and clear lumber that fetch premium market prices; • loss of resilience and resistance to insect infestation that is enhanced by species diversity; • loss of wildlife habitat, including decreasing populations of birds; • loss of forest recreation values that can impact tourism;
14 The Nova Scotia Genuine Progress Index Forest Accounts, Volume 1, Indicators of ecological, economic & social values of forests in Nova Scotia
82 • a decline in forested watershed protection, which has likely contributed to a 50% decline in shade dependent brook trout; • soil degradation and the leaching of nutrients that can affect future timber productivity; • a substantial decline in carbon storage capacity and an increase in biomass carbon loss; and • a decline in other essential forest ecosystem services.
The rate of cutting in Nova Scotia has doubled over the past two decades by volume, and in the last decade alone the actual area clear-cut annually has doubled, placing additional stress on the province's forests.
In Nova Scotia, ninety-nine percent of the wood is harvested by clearcutting. Based on the annual growth rate of the province's forests, on the rate of seeding and planting in the past decade, and on changes in age structure and species composition, the current annual rate of cutting is unsustainable.
The continued focus of both policy and current accounting methods on quantity rather than quality not only encourages clearcutting, but also conceals a significant loss of value per unit of biomass harvested, due to the changing age and species structure of the province’s forests. The potential lost market value of premium-priced large diameter and clear lumber through the destruction of old trees in the last 40 years alone is roughly estimated at $260 million annually or 19% of total annual revenues.
A recent public opinion poll found that 91% of Nova Scotians believe the present rate of timber harvest is too high to sustain the forest for other values or uses.
Extrapolating from one global study, Nova Scotia forests are estimated to provide a minimum of $1.68 billion (1997$) worth of services annually in climate
83 regulation, soil formation, waste treatment, biological control, food production, recreation, and cultural benefits.
Nova Scotia's forests store about 107 million tonnes of carbon, thereby avoiding an estimated $2.2 billion in climate change damage costs. However, the accelerated rate of cutting, and the loss of old growth and mature forests in Nova Scotia since 1958, has drastically reduced the province's carbon storage capacity by 38%, costing an estimated $1.3 billion in lost value.
Valuable forest-dependent medicinal plants that are dependent on mature forests are becoming increasingly rare in the province as forest ecosystems with old- growth characteristics disappear.
Nova Scotians spend $250 million a year on nature and wildlife-related pursuits, a lot of it in forests, of which 70% is non-consumptive (e.g. hiking, bird- watching, canoeing) and 27% is consumptive (mostly hunting and fishing)
In 1984, the forestry industry contributed $90,804 to GDP per 1,000 cubic metres of timber harvested. In 1999, the industry contributed only $68,023 per 1,000 cubic metres, a 25% decrease (constant 1997$). In other words, the GDP and shipment figures in isolation conceal the reality that far greater quantities of timber are being harvested to maintain a relatively fixed contribution to GDP.
Employment per unit of timber harvested has declined by 26% since the l980s, from an average of 1.9 jobs/1,000 cubic metres in the l980s to an average of 1.4 jobs/1,000 cubic metres in the l990s.
84 7. Crime 7.1 Reported crime statistics In 2002, there were 74,722 reported Criminal Code offences, including traffic incidents, in Nova Scotia. Of that number, 33,689 (45%) took place in Halifax and 41,033 (55%) took place outside of the capital, a geographical area that can be considered mainly rural. As shown in Graph 7.1, the number of incidents decreased in the province between 1997 and 2002. The decrease over that period was almost 9% in Nova Scotia, only 1% in Halifax and more than 14% in rural Nova Scotia.
GRAPH 7.1
All Criminal Code Offences, Actual Incidents
Nova Scotia Halifax Rural NS
90 000 80 000 70 000 60 000 50 000 40 000 30 000 20 000 10 000 0 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
Source: Statistics Canada, Uniform Crime Reporting Survey
When comparing the number of crime per 100,000 of population, Canada and Nova Scotia show similar crime rates between 1997 and 2002, except in 2000, when the rate was higher in Nova Scotia. The rate was highest in Halifax for the entire 1997–2002 period. (See Graph 7.2.) In 2002, the rate for all reported Criminal Code incidents, including traffic incidents was almost 9,000 per 100,000 of population in Halifax, 7,909 in Nova Scotia and 7,964 in Canada.
85 GRAPH 7.2
All Criminal Code Offences, Including Traffic Offences
Canada Nova Scotia Halifax
10 500 10 000 9 500 9 000 8 500 8 000 7 500 7 000 6 500 Rate per100,000 population 6 000 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
Source: Ibidem
The Uniform Crime Reporting Survey encompasses three broad categories of crime: property crimes, crimes of violence and other Criminal Code offences. The last category includes a vast number of violations such as mischief, arson, gaming and betting, prostitution and kidnapping. Of the three categories, the property crimes rate is the highest in Nova Scotia, even though it decreased between 1997 and 2002. (See Graph 7.3.) After 2000, the rate of other Criminal Code offences increases to nearly that of property crimes. In 2002, the other Criminal Code offences rate was at 3,189 per 100,000 of population, compared with 3,322 for property crimes. At 1,098 per 100,000 of population, the rate for crimes of violence was the lowest of the three categories and it remained stable during the period.
86 GRAPH 7.3
Type of Crimes, Nova Scotia, 1997–2002
Crim es of violence Property crimes O th e r C rim in a l C o d e
4,500 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 ulation
p 1,500 o p 1,000 500 Rate per 100,000 100,000 per Rate 0 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
Source: Ibidem
Of the 41,033 incidents that occurred in rural Nova Scotia in 2002, almost half (47%) were other Criminal Code offences, 35% were property crimes and 14% were crimes of violence. (See Graph 7.4.) Graph 7.5 shows the difference of proportion from Halifax to Nova Scotia to Canada in the various categories. The proportion of crimes of violence is higher in Nova Scotia and in Halifax than in rural Nova Scotia. The percentages of property crimes are much higher in Canada and Halifax than in rural communities. The other Criminal Code offences category represents 47% of all Criminal Code offences in rural Nova Scotia while it barely reaches or surpasses 40% in other regions.
87 GRAPH 7.4
Type of Crime as Percentage of All Criminal Code Incidents, Including Traffic, Rural Nova Scotia, 2002
14%
Violence Property 47% Other Criminal Code 35%
Source: Ibidem
GRAPH 7.5
Type of Crime, Canada, Nova Scotia and Halifax, 2002
Canada Nov a Sc otia Halifax Rural NS 60%
50%
40%
30%
20% % of all CC% incidents of all 10%
0% Violence Property Other Criminal Code
Source:Ibidem
88 There were almost 10,400 reported crimes of violence in Nova Scotia in 2002, and more than 9,700 of those were assaults. As presented in Table 7.1, the number of assaults increased by more than 21% in Halifax between 1997 and 2002 but it decreased by more than 12% in the rest of the province. In the case of the most serious crimes, the number of homicides decreased everywhere but the number of attempted murders more than tripled in Halifax, while it decreased by 25% in rural Nova Scotia during the same period.
TABLE 7.1 Crime of Violence by Type, Nova Scotia, Halifax and Rural Nova Scotia, Actual Incidents, 1997–2002 Differen ce 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2002– 1997 Homicide NS 24 24 13 15 9 9 -62.50% Halifax 11 12 7 8 3 5 -54.55% Rural NS 13 12 6 7 6 4 -69.23% Attempted NS 16 11 9 16 15 27 68.75% murder 350.00 Halifax 4 3 3 11 8 18 % Rural NS 12 8 6 5 7 9 -25.00% Assault NS 9,734 8,575 8,943 8,669 9,035 9,710 -0.25% Halifax 3,526 3,056 3,287 3,475 3,931 4,277 21.30% Rural NS 6,208 5,519 5,656 5,194 5,104 5,433 -12.48% Other sexual NS 73 72 54 72 71 56 -23.29% offences Halifax 28 26 21 39 26 10 -64.29% Rural NS 45 46 33 33 45 46 2.22% Abduction NS 18 15 14 16 21 21 16.67% Halifax 432562-50.00% Rural NS 14 12 12 11 15 19 35.71% Robbery NS 428 458 416 520 627 557 30.14% Halifax 358 367 343 469 585 490 36.87% Rural NS 70 91 73 51 42 67 -4.29% Total, crimes of NS 10,293 9,155 9,449 9,308 9,778 10,380 0.85% violence Halifax 3,931 3,467 3,663 4,007 4,559 4,802 22.16% Rural NS 6,362 5,688 5,786 5,301 5,219 5,578 -12.32% Source: Ibid.
89 As shown in Graph 7.6, the rate of assault decreased at the beginning of the 1997–2002 period but it reached over 1,000 per 100,000 of population in the province and in the capital between 2000 and 2002. The rate of assault for Nova Scotia was almost 920 per 100,000 in 2000, and 1030 per 100,000 in 2002. In Halifax, rates were at 945 per 100,000 and 1140 per 100,000 for the same years.
GRAPH 7.6
Assault, Nova Scotia and Halifax, 1997–2002
Nova Scotia Halifax
1200 1000 800 600 400 200 Rateper 100,000 population 0 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
Source: Ibid.
The number of reported property crimes declined in the province but the decline is more significant in rural Nova Scotia than in the urban area. There were a total of 31,385 property crimes in the province in 2002: 17,117 occurred in Halifax, a 12% decrease since 1997; while 14,268 were committed in the rest of the province, reprensenting a 23% decrease. Theft under $5,000 was the most common property crime. As shown in Table 7.2, the rate of this particular property crime decreased by 10% from 1997 to reach approximately 19,000 crimes in Nova Scotia in 2002. The decrease was almost 6% in Halifax and 15% in the rural areas.
90 TABLE 7.2
Property Crimes, Nova Scotia, Halifax and Rural Nova Scotia, Actual Incidents, 1997–2002 Difference 2002– 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 1997 Breaking and entering NS 9,292 9,118 9,052 7,673 6,524 6,581 -29.18% Halifax 4,505 4,318 4,266 3,768 3,419 3,176 -29.50% Rural NS 4,787 4,800 4,786 3,905 3,105 3,405 -28.87% Theft, motor vehicles NS 2,593 2,816 2,898 2,867 2,733 2,639 1.77% Halifax 1,670 1,950 1,974 2,007 1,836 1,775 6.29% Rural NS 923 866 924 860 897 864 -6.39% Theft over $5,000 NS 505 433 412 338 272 264 -47.72% Halifax 123 90 104 84 104 91 -26.02% Rural NS 382 343 308 254 168 173 -54.71% Theft under $5,000 NS 21,379 21,788 20,829 18,393 19,363 19,233 -10.04% Halifax 11,448 12,713 11,765 9,972 11,236 10,791 -5.74% Rural NS 9,931 9,075 9,064 8,421 8,127 8,442 -14.99% Have stolen goods NS 355 396 1185 1415 380 260 -26.76% Halifax 85 110 865 1184 152 66 -22.35% Rural NS 270 286 320 231 228 194 -28.15% Frauds NS 3,938 3,413 3,350 2,988 2,922 2,408 -38.85% Halifax 1,738 1,452 1,427 1,495 1,395 1,218 -29.92% Rural NS 2,200 1,961 1,923 1,493 1,527 1,190 -45.91% Total, property crimes NS 38,062 37,964 37,726 33,674 32,194 31,385 -17.54% Halifax 19,569 20,633 20,401 18,510 18,142 17,117 -12.53% Rural NS 18,493 17,331 17,325 15,164 14,052 14,268 -22.85% Source: Ibid.
The rate of reported theft under $5,000 was higher in Halifax than in the rest of the province between 1997 and 2002. (See Graph 7.7.) Rates decreased overall from 1997 to 2002, going from 3,315 per 100,000 of population to 2,880 per 100,000 for Halifax, and from 2,290 to 2,035 for rural Nova Scotia.
91 GRAPH 7.7
Theft Under $5,000 in Nova Scotia and Halifax, 1997–2002
Nova Scotia Halifax
4000
3500
3000
2500
2000
1500
1000
Rateper 100,000 population 500
0 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
Source: Ibid.
In 2002, there were 30,125 infractions of the other Criminal Code offences category in Nova Scotia. Eleven thousand took place in Halifax, while 19,125 occurred outside the capital city. As shown in Table 7.3, the number of offences of that type increased by almost 13% between 1997 and 2002 in Halifax but it decreased by 8% in rural Nova Scotia.
TABLE 7.3 Other Criminal Code Offences, Nova Scotia, Halifax and Rural Nova Scotia, Actual Incidents, 1997–2002 Difference 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2002–1997 NS 30,543 28,956 31,077 28,214 29,547 30,125 -1.37% Halifax 9,755 9,403 9,793 8,873 10,789 11,000 12.76% Rural 20,788 19,553 21,284 19,341 18,758 19,125 -8.00% NS Source: Ibid.
Graph 7.8 presents the actual numbers of most frequent incidents of other Criminal Code offences that occurred in rural Nova Scotia between 1997 and 2002. Over 7,000 Criminal Code offences occurred every year for most of that period. This category encompasses a
92 large number of offences that the Uniform Crime Reporting Survey managers could not classify elsewhere.15 The number of crimes of mischief causing under $1,000 in property damage began decreasing in 1997 and reached 7,000 in 2002. The number of times rural Nova Scotians were arrested for disturbing the peace is stable, around 3,000 per year, and serious traffic incidents under the Criminal Code, such as dangerous operation of vehicles causing death or bodily harm, or impaired operation, amount to approximately 2,000 per year.
GRAPH 7.8
Other Criminal Code, Most Frequent Incidents in Rural Nova Scotia
Disturbing the peace Mischief under $1,000, property damage Other Criminal Code offences Criminal Code, traffic Impaired operation
10000 9000 8000 7000 6000 5000 4000 3000 actual incidents 2000 1000 0 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
Source: Ibid.
15 The type of offences include obstruction of justice, disobeying a court order, public mischief, false fire alarm, injury to or endangerment of an animal, fraud upon government, riot, treason or public incitement to hatred.
93 7.2 Cost of crime As we discussed natural assets value in the Natural Resources section of this Profile, in this section we will explore the value of the social asset of peaceful and harmonious society from a Genuine Progress Index (GPI) perspective. Obviously crime is not good for any society, but the way the Gross Domestic Product is calculated and used, a crime increase that induces greater spending in prisons or on burglar alarms is considered a “progress.” From a social development perspective crime is clearly a deterioration of our social asset.
The Cost of Crime in Nova Scotia, written by Colin Dodds and Ronald Colman and published by GPI Atlantic, provides an excellent measurement of the negative impact of crime from a sustainable development perspective. The following estimates are from this report, which is a component of the GPI.
Crime cost Nova Scotians more than half a billion dollars in 1997. As presented in Table 7.4, costs include losses to victims, public spending for the justice system and private spending for crime protection. These costs amount to nearly $600 for every person in the province. Factoring in losses due to unreported crimes, insurance fraud and shoplifting yields a comprehensive estimate of almost $1.2 billion per year or $1,250 per person.
Most of the spending detailed in Table 7.4 is income for another economic agent, indicating that a higher crime rate increases the GDP. A lower crime rate increases the GPI because reduced crime costs translate into savings that can be invested in other sectors that build communities and enhance well-being such as education, health or environmental protection. Higher costs to maintain a given level of security indicate a decline in the quality of life.16
16 The Cost of Crime in Nova Scotia, Colin Dodds and Ronald Colman, April 1999
94 TABLE 7.4 Cost of Crime in Nova Scotia, 1997, ($ millions)* Conservative Estimate Victim Losses** Direct Victim Losses due to Property Crime 102.4 Direct Victim Monetary Losses in Assaults 0.6 and Sexual Assaults Cost of Hospitalization due to Violent Crime 1.6 Lost Potential Economic Production due to 23.4 Homicide Lost Production due to Absenteeism resulting 4.2 from Criminal Attack Subtotal 132.2
Public Justice Costs Police Expenditures, incl. N.S. share of RCMP 143.3 expenditures Courts, Legal Aid and Prosecutions 39.5 Corrections: Provincial, N.S. share of Federal 74.8 and Youth Subtotal 257.6
Private Defensive Expenditures on Crime Prevention/Detection Home Security Systems 45.5 Private Security Guards and Private 56.3 Investigators Retail Business Defensive Costs (Store 37.0 Surveillance Alarms, etc.) Theft Insurance (Premiums minus Claims) 25.0 Subtotal 163.8
Total Conservative Estimate 553.6
Comprehensive Estimate Total Conservative Estimate (from above) 553.6 Victim Losses due to Unreported Property 165.2 Crime $ Losses Hospitalization Absenteeism: 5.2 Unreported Violent Crime Unpaid Household Work Losses 8.2 Unpaid Voluntary Work Losses 1.4 Voluntary Work: Crime Prevention, Legal Aid 16.0 w/Victims Offenders Business Shrinkage due to Shoplifting 113.8 Employee Theft: Retail Only Insurance Fraud (higher premiums) 66.4 “Shattered Lives” (based on court awards for 249.0 serious violent crimes)
Total Comprehensive Estimate 1,178.8 * The following costs are not included:
95 Deaths, injuries and property damage due to impaired driving; Health, lost production and other costs associated with drug offences, prostitution and other crimes not classified as property or violent crimes; Most white collar and corporate crime; fraudulent professional service claims; tax fraud and employment insurance fraud. ** Average victim losses per crime category are derived from victim surveys and they include reported and unreported crimes. Source: GPI Atlantic, The Cost of Crime in Nova Scotia
The authors present an historical perspective on economic losses due to crime and defensive expenditures. For example, hospitalization costs due to crime have increased markedly since 1962, in part because of increased violent crime rates and in part because of increased hospitalization costs. Absenteeism due to crime cost the economy of Nova Scotia an estimated $4.25 million in 1997, three times the 1971 figure.
Nova Scotians now need 50% more police per capita than 30 years ago. Per capita spending on theft insurance has more than doubled in the province since the early 1970s, an indicator of public perceptions of crime risk.
The costs of in-store crime prevention and detection equipment, business losses due to shoplifting and employee theft and salaries of private security guards are all passed on to the consumer. Based on Retail Council of Canada surveys, it is estimated that Nova Scotian households are spending $800 a year on higher prices due to crime.17
17 Ibidem
96 ANNEX 1 Population by Census Subdivisions 1996 and 2001 Change in Population 1996 Population 2001 percent Canada 28846761 30007094 4 Nova Scotia 909282 908007 -0.1
Rural CSDs CSD Types18 Barrington MD 7883 7648 -3 Clark's Harbour T 980 944 -3.7 Shelburne MD 5315 4925 -7.3 Shelburne T 2132 2013 -5.6 Lockeport T 692 701 1.3
Argyle MD 8947 8688 -2.9 Yarmouth MD 10722 10476 -2.3 Yarmouth T 7568 7561 -0.1 Yarmouth 33 R 73 118 61.6
Clare MD 9298 9067 -2.5 Digby MD 8926 8281 -7.2 Digby T 2199 2111 -4 Bear River (Part) 6 R 77 89 15.6
Queens RGM 12386 11694 -5.6
Annapolis, Subd. D SCM 3024 2979 -1.5 Annapolis, Subd. A SCM 6710 6576 -2 Annapolis Royal T 583 550 -5.7 Annapolis, Subd. B SCM 4038 3789 -6.2 Bridgetown T 994 1035 4.1 Annapolis, Subd. C SCM 5165 5085 -1.5 Middleton T 1800 1744 -3.1
Lunenburg MD 25949 25570 -1.5 Bridgewater T 7351 7621 3.7 Lunenburg T 2599 2568 -1.2 Mahone Bay T 1017 991 -2.6 Chester MD 10602 10781 1.7
18 Census subdivisions (CSDs) are classified into 46 types according to official designations adopted by provincial or federal authorities. In Nova Scotia they are R : Indian Reserve, SCM : Subdivision of County Municipality, MD : Municipal District, T : Town and RGM : Regional Municipality
97 Kings, Subd. A SCM 22700 22430 -1.2 Cambridge 32 R 80 104 30 Berwick T 2195 2282 4 Kings, Subd. D SCM 5247 5167 -1.5 Wolfville T 3833 3658 -4.6 Horton 35 R 48 53 10.4
West Hants MD 13792 13780 -0.1 Windsor T 3726 3778 1.4 Hantsport T 1252 1202 -4 East Hants MD 19767 20821 5.3 Indian Brook 14 R 946 932 -1.5
Stewiacke T 1405 1388 -1.2 Colchester, Subd. A SCM 3755 3643 -3
Cumberland, Subd. A SCM 2699 2471 -8.4 Parrsboro T 1617 1529 -5.4 Cumberland, Subd. B SCM 4215 4015 -4.7 Springhill T 4193 4091 -2.4 Cumberland, Subd. C SCM 5412 5216 -3.6 Amherst T 9669 9470 -2.1 Oxford T 1352 1332 -1.5 Cumberland, Subd. D SCM 4647 4481 -3.6
Pictou, Subd. A SCM 6641 6355 -4.3 Pictou T 4022 3875 -3.7
St. Mary's MD 2952 2766 -6.3 Guysborough MD 5942 5165 -13.1 Canso T 1127 992 -12 Mulgrave T 896 904 0.9
Antigonish, Subd. A SCM 7557 7702 1.9 Antigonish T 4860 4754 -2.2 Antigonish, Subd. B SCM 6854 6819 -0.5 Pomquet And Afton 23 R 283 303 7.1
Inverness, Subd. C SCM 3808 3823 0.4 Port Hawkesbury T 3809 3701 -2.8 Inverness, Subd. B SCM 6132 5769 -5.9 Whycocomagh 2 R 574 635 10.6 Inverness, Subd. A SCM 6595 6009 -8.9
Richmond, Subd. C SCM 4161 3848 -7.5 Richmond, Subd. A SCM 4437 4082 -8 Richmond, Subd. B SCM 2074 1876 -9.5
98 Chapel Island 5 R 350 419 19.7
Victoria, Subd. B SCM 4439 4217 -5 Wagmatcook 1 R 448 444 -0.9 Victoria, Subd. A SCM 3595 3301 -8.2 Urban CSDs Kings, Subd. C SCM 8049 7943 -1.3 Kentville T 5551 5610 1.1 Kings, Subd. B SCM 11490 11619 1.1
Halifax RGM 342851 359111 4.7
Colchester, Subd. C SCM 13000 13391 3 Millbrook 27 R 758 821 8.3 Truro T 11938 11457 -4 Colchester, Subd. B SCM 18406 18607 1.1
Pictou, Subd. B SCM 6602 6242 -5.5 Westville T 3976 3879 -2.4 Stellarton T 4968 4809 -3.2 Pictou, Subd. C SCM 9428 9181 -2.6 New Glasgow T 9812 9432 -3.9 Trenton T 2952 2798 -5.2 Fisher's Grant 24 R 315 394 25.1
Membertou 28B R 612 621 1.5 Eskasoni 3 R 2504 2741 9.5 Cape Breton RGM 114733 105968 -7.6
99 ANNEX 2 Median and Average Income by Census Subdivisions, 2000 Average income, $ Median income, $ Canada 29769 22120 Nova Scotia 25297 18735
Rural CSDs CSD Types19 Barrington MD 24790 17088 Clark's Harbour T 23814 17920 Shelburne MD 22757 15759 Shelburne T 22455 16210 Lockeport T 19609 14383
Argyle MD 23499 16239 Yarmouth MD 23205 18003 Yarmouth T 21366 14040
Clare MD 20594 16311 Digby MD 19481 14673 Digby T 19925 16480
Queens RGM 22148 15195
Annapolis, Subd. D SCM 20012 15700 Annapolis, Subd. A SCM 20023 14755 Annapolis Royal T 22779 15297 Annapolis, Subd. B SCM 20898 16423 Bridgetown T 21197 15675 Annapolis, Subd. C SCM 20490 15198 Middleton T 22596 16501
Lunenburg MD 23733 16452 Bridgewater T 23631 17109 Lunenburg T 28608 17620 Mahone Bay T 25097 19979 Chester MD 23125 18012
Kings, Subd. A SCM 23630 18320 Berwick T 23281 15595 Kings, Subd. D SCM 23883 18771 Wolfville T 27589 16663
19 Census subdivisions (CSDs) are classified into 46 types according to official designations adopted by provincial or federal authorities. In Nova Scotia they are R : Indian Reserve, SCM : Subdivision of County Municipality, MD : Municipal District, T : Town and RGM : Regional Municipality
100 West Hants MD 22223 18345 Windsor T 25324 19091 Hantsport T 23874 17465 East Hants MD 23820 19433 Indian Brook 14 R 14077 11136
Stewiacke T 25107 19980 Colchester, Subd. A SCM 19594 16382
Cumberland, Subd. A SCM 16854 13521 Parrsboro T 16892 13957 Cumberland, Subd. B SCM 20934 17205 Springhill T 20459 16043 Cumberland, Subd. C SCM 23555 18240 Amherst T 21959 17017 Oxford T 22672 19276 Cumberland, Subd. D SCM 21366 16318
Pictou, Subd. A SCM 23201 17026 Pictou T 23947 16708
St. Mary's MD 20667 15881 Guysborough MD 18780 13850 Canso T 18174 12224 Mulgrave T 19678 14779
Antigonish, Subd. A SCM 25130 17902 Antigonish T 26848 17976 Antigonish, Subd. B SCM 21668 15650 Pomquet And Afton R 10029 8608 23
Inverness, Subd. C SCM 24856 17470 Port Hawkesbury T 26970 19799 Inverness, Subd. B SCM 20772 15762 Whycocomagh 2 R 10649 8416 Inverness, Subd. A SCM 20900 15275
Richmond, Subd. C SCM 19663 14736 Richmond, Subd. A SCM 21279 14281 Richmond, Subd. B SCM 19189 14020 Chapel Island 5 R 15619 12576
Victoria, Subd. B SCM 21640 16925 Wagmatcook 1 R 12113 9392 Victoria, Subd. A SCM 21983 15460
101 Urban CSDs Kings, Subd. C SCM 23008 17482 Kentville T 25560 19644 Kings, Subd. B SCM 21727 16387
Halifax RGM 29589 22989
Colchester, Subd. C SCM 23390 19565 Millbrook 27 R 17123 14261 Truro T 23478 17607 Colchester, Subd. B SCM 25381 18203
Pictou, Subd. B SCM 23780 18362 Westville T 22035 17019 Stellarton T 24070 17171 Pictou, Subd. C SCM 24676 17437 New Glasgow T 26687 18461 Trenton T 20936 16865 Fisher's Grant 24 R 14548 11371
Membertou 28B R 14560 10784 Eskasoni 3 R 12235 8424 Cape Breton RGM 20945 16018
102 ANNEX 3
Average Gross Rent and Owner Major Payments by Census Subdivisions, 2001 Average gross Average owner's rent $ major payments $ Rural CSDs Barrington [MD] 481 469 Clark's Harbour [T] 256 509 Shelburne [MD] 464 431 Shelburne [T] 467 540 Lockeport [T] 384 378
Argyle [MD] 598 433 Yarmouth [MD] 519 518 Yarmouth [T] 487 661
Clare [MD] 455 392 Digby [MD] 430 436 Digby [T] 440 474
Queens [RGM] 457 441
Annapolis, Subd. D [SCM] 558 457 Annapolis, Subd. A [SCM] 519 388 Annapolis Royal [T] 432 869 Annapolis, Subd. B [SCM] 392 436 Bridgetown [T] 446 633 Annapolis, Subd. C [SCM] 492 519 Middleton [T] 480 626
Lunenburg [MD] 528 485 Bridgewater [T] 534 627 Lunenburg [T] 480 594 Mahone Bay [T] 533 572 Chester [MD] 494 491
Kings, Subd. A [SCM] 554 606 Berwick [T] 542 535 Kings, Subd. D [SCM] 568 580 Wolfville [T] 589 744
West Hants [MD] 504 542 Windsor [T] 540 794 Hantsport [T] 420 548 East Hants [MD] 543 648
103 Stewiacke [T] 641 745 Colchester, Subd. A [SCM] 542 442
Cumberland, Subd. A [SCM] 338 366 Parrsboro [T] 376 605 Cumberland, Subd. B [SCM] 419 439 Springhill [T] 434 483 Cumberland, Subd. C [SCM] 426 496 Amherst [T] 545 538 Oxford [T] 470 577 Cumberland, Subd. D [SCM] 431 454
Pictou, Subd. A [SCM] 661 438 Pictou [T] 502 580
St. Mary's [MD] 392 362 Guysborough [MD] 388 341 Canso [T] 389 433 Mulgrave [T] 344 512
Antigonish, Subd. A [SCM] 530 601 Antigonish [T] 542 575 Antigonish, Subd. B [SCM] 555 460
Inverness, Subd. C [SCM] 438 505 Port Hawkesbury [T] 541 641 Inverness, Subd. B [SCM] 402 520 Inverness, Subd. A [SCM] 414 452
Richmond, Subd. C [SCM] 419 438 Richmond, Subd. A [SCM] 448 510 Richmond, Subd. B [SCM] 362 305
Victoria, Subd. B [SCM] 503 569 Victoria, Subd. A [SCM] 461 439
Rural average 474.98 $ 520.03 $
Urban CSDs Kings, Subd. C [SCM] 537 635
104 Kentville [T] 517 722 Kings, Subd. B [SCM] 504 605
Halifax [RGM] 657 823
Colchester, Subd. C [SCM] 554 536 Truro [T] 523 614 Colchester, Subd. B [SCM] 538 549
Pictou, Subd. B [SCM] 476 496 Westville [T] 475 648 Stellarton [T] 510 615 Pictou, Subd. C [SCM] 508 497 New Glasgow [T] 524 621 Trenton [T] 541 570
Cape Breton [RGM] 527 545
Urban average 527.93 $ 605.43 $
105