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Patterns of Urban and Rural Population Growth

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Patterns of Urban and Rural Population Growth PATTERNS OF URBAN AND RURAL UNITED NATIONS POPULATION GROWTH ST/ESA/SER.A/68 Department of International Economic and Social Affairs POPULATION STUDIES, No. 68 PATTERNS OF URBAN AND RURAL POPULATION GROWTH UNITED NATIONS New York, 1980 NOTE The designations employed and the presentation of the material in this publi­ cation do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the Secretariat of the United Nations concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries. The designations "developed" and "developing" economies are intended for statistical convenience and do not necessarily express a judgement about the stage reached by a particular country or area in the development process. The term "country" as used in the text of this publication also refers, as appro­ priate, to territories or areas. Symbols of United Nations documents are composed of capital letters combined with figures. Mention of such a symbol indicates a reference to a United Nations document. The printing of this volume was made possible by a publications grant from the United Nations Fund for Population Activities ST/ESA/SER.A/68 UNITED NATIONS PUBLICATION Sales No. E.79XIII.9 Price: $U.S. 13.00 CONTENTS Page Explanatory notes " viii Chapter I. HISTORICAL BACKGROUND OF URBANIZATION. ....................... 1 A. New forms of urban organization. ............................. 3 B. Brief quantitative review of historical growth of cities . 5 II. ESTIMATES AND PROJECTIONS OF URBAN AND RURAL POPULATIONS. ..... 9 A. Urban population ......................................... 11 B. Rural population .......................................... 13 C. Relative size of urban and rural populations. .................... 15 D. Relationship between urban and industrial populations . 17 III. COMPONENTS OF URBAN AND RURAL POPULATION CHANGE. .......... .. 20 A. Methods of procedure ...................................... 20 B. Evaluating the technique .................................... 21 C. Sources of urban growth . .. 22 D. Sources of rural population change. ........................... 27 E. Factors associated with national rates of net rural-urban migration. 30 F. Components of urbanization ............................... .. 33 G. Sensitivity of results to mortality assumptions ..... 34 IV. PATTERNS OF GROWTH AMONG CITIES " 38 A. Factors associated with recent growth of individual cities . 40 B. Estimates and projections of city population ..................... 44 C. Growth trends in various size classes . 47 D. Size distributions of cities . 54 V. OCCUPATIONAL CHARACTERISTICS OF URBAN AND RURAL LABOUR FORCES 59 A. Dynamics of labour force composition ..................... 61 B. Concepts and definitions . 64 C. Data 67 D. Degree of urbanization in occupations .................... 68 E. Labour force structures of urban and rural areas in relation to develop- mental level . 68 F. Relative rise of urban services . 71 G. Trends in occupation/residence relations .. ..................... 73 H. Regional and temporal factors in labour force structure. 77 I. Synthetic time trends . 80 VI. OCCUPATIONS OF WOMEN IN THE URBAN AND RURAL LABOUR FORCE. ..... 82 A Female labour force participation and economic development . 84 B. Feminization of occupations in relation to developmental level . 86 C. Trends in feminization of occupations ......................... 88 D. Regional variations in feminization of occupations. 91 E. Discussion............................................... 92 v Page VII. THE FAMILY IN RURAL AND URBAN SETTINGS. ....................... 93 A. Basic concepts ............................................ 93 B. Family types and forms . 94 C. Family structure in polar types of societies. ..................... 95 D. The household in rural and urban settings ....................... 97 E. Variation and change in the contemporary family , 101 F. Marital status in urban and rural populations .................. .. 104 VIII. SEX AND AGE DISTRIBUTIONS OF URBAN AND RURAL POPULATIONS. ..... .. 108 A. Levels of urbanization by age and sex . .. 109 B. Sex balances in urban and rural areas ........................ .. 113 Annexes I. Urban definitions and dates of availability of basic data .............. .. 121 II. Urban and city population, rural population and percentage urban, major areas, regions and countries, 1950-2000: tables 48-50 ............... .. 125 III. Occupational composition of urban and rural labour force, percentage urban in various occupations and percentage female in various occupations, rural and urban areas, by country: tables 51-53 ..... ................... .. 163 LIST OF TABLES 1. Number of cities in the world above given size limits, 1360 B.C.-A.D. 1925 5 2. Geographical distribution of 25 largest cities in the world, 430 B.C.-A.D. 1925 6 3. Estimated total, urban and rural populations, world, more developed regions and less developed regions, 1800-1925 .............................. 7 4. Urban population, major areas and regions, 1950-2000 . 11 5. Average annual growth rates of urban areas in major areas and regions, 1950- 2000 13 6. Rural population, major areas and regions, 1950-2000 . 14 7. Average annual growth rates of rural areas in major areas and regions, 1950- 2000 15 8. Proportions of population living in urban areas of major areas and regions, 1950-2000 .................................................... 16 9. Regional relationship between urbanization of population and industrialization of the labour force .............................................. 18 10. Comparison of estimated rates of natural increase in urban and rural areas derived from intercensal survival technique and from vital registration ....... 22 11. Sources of intercensal growth of urban populations ..................... 24 12. Sources of intercensal growth of rural populations. .................... 28 13. Co~ffici~nt~ of zero-order correlation between rural net out-migration rates and varIOUS indicators ............................................. .. 31 14. Regression equations for predicting national levels of net rural-urban migration in less developed countries ........................................ 32 15. Rates of urbanization and contribution of net rural-urban migration to urban- ization 35 16. Sensitivity of estimated rural-urban migration to mortality assumptions. .... 36 17. Average annual city growth rates between the two most recent censuses as a function of size of city at first census, major areas. ..................... 41 18. Average city growth rates between the two most recent censuses as a function of city size and the growth rate of the country in which the city is located ..... 43 vi Page 19. Regression equation predicting city growth rates in most recent intercensal period for cities with over 100,000 population at beginning of period . 43 20. Population, number of cities and percentage of urban population in particular size class or above, world, more developed and less developed regions, and major areas, 1950-1975 48 21. Fraction of population growth to various sizes of city categories attributable to graduation, major areas, 1970-1975 .... .. ...... .. ............ ... 53 22. Population and number of cities in a particular size class, major areas, 1975- 2000 55 23. Thirty largest agglomerations in the world, ranked by size, 1950-2000 . 58 24. Comparison of labour force distribution by occupation and by industry . 66 25. Average proportion urban in various occupations classified by level of develop- ment of country ................................................ 68 26. Percentage composition of urban and rural labour force, by sector of economic activity and level of development ... ............................... 69 27. Components of change in occupational distributions between highest and lowest levels of development . 71 28. Percentage composition of urban labour force, by sector of economic activity, countries with at least two observations. ............................. 74 29. Percentage composition of rural labour force, by sector of economic activity, countries with at least two observations . 75 30. Proportion urban, by sector of economic activity, countries with at least two observations 77 31. Regional deviations in labour force structure, controlling percentage of total labour force in agriculture and date of observation . 79 32. Variations in urbanization of occupations, major areas. 80 33. Changes over time in labour force structure, controlling percentage of total labour force in agriculture and regions from which observations derive . 80 34. Time trends in urbanization of occupations . 81 35. Average percentage of specified occupations in urban and rural areas occupied by females among countries classified by level of development . 87 36. Percentage female of occupations in urban areas, countries with at least two observations . 88 37. Percentage female of occupations in rural areas, countries with at least two observations . 89 38. Variations in feminization of occupations, major areas. 91 39. Average household size, rural and urban populations, according to recent national censuses ..... .......................................... 98 40. Number of non-nuclear relatives and of non-relatives per household, selected national censuses . .. 101 41. Summary of urban and rural measures concerning marital status of either sex and urban/rural differences in these measures . .. 105 42. Summary of women-to-men ratios of each
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