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Modeling and Analysis of Post-Conflict Reconstruction

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Modeling and Analysis of Post-Conflict Reconstruction View metadata, citation and similar papers at core.ac.uk brought to you by CORE provided by AFTI Scholar (Air Force Institute of Technology) Air Force Institute of Technology AFIT Scholar Theses and Dissertations Student Graduate Works 3-2004 Modeling and Analysis of Post-Conflict Reconstruction Damon B. Richardson Follow this and additional works at: https://scholar.afit.edu/etd Part of the Operational Research Commons, and the Peace and Conflict Studies Commons Recommended Citation Richardson, Damon B., "Modeling and Analysis of Post-Conflict Reconstruction" (2004). Theses and Dissertations. 4026. https://scholar.afit.edu/etd/4026 This Thesis is brought to you for free and open access by the Student Graduate Works at AFIT Scholar. It has been accepted for inclusion in Theses and Dissertations by an authorized administrator of AFIT Scholar. For more information, please contact [email protected]. MODELING AND ANALYSIS OF POST-CONFLICT RECONSTRUCTION THESIS Damon B. Richardson, 2nd Lieutenant, USAF AFIT/GOR/ENS/04-10 DEPARTMENT OF THE AIR FORCE AIR UNIVERSITY AIR FORCE INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY Wright-Patterson Air Force Base, Ohio APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE; DISTRIBUTION UNLIMITED. The views expressed in this thesis are those of the author and do not reflect the official policy or position of the United States Air Force, Department of Defense, or the United States Government. AFIT/GOR/ENS/04-10 MODELING AND ANALYSIS OF POST-CONFLICT RECONSTRUCTION THESIS Presented to the Faculty Department of Operational Sciences Graduate School of Engineering and Management Air Force Institute of Technology Air University Air Education and Training Command In Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree of Master of Science in Operations Research Damon B. Richardson, BS 2nd Lieutenant, USAF March 2004 APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE; DISTRIBUTION UNLIMITED. AFIT/GOR/ENS/04-10 MODELING AND ANALYSIS OF POST-CONFLICT RECONSTRUCTION Damon B. Richardson, BS 2nd Lieutenant, USAF Approved: ___________________________________ _____________ Dr Richard F. Deckro (Co-advisor) date ___________________________________ _____________ Maj Victor Wiley (Co-advisor) date AFIT/GOR/ENS/04-10 Abstract The forces at play in reconstruction operations are a complex system of time phased interlocking cause and effect relationships that are not thoroughly understood. A model capable of capturing the general dynamics involved in post-conflict reconstruction would provide insight to decision makers regarding potential policy alternatives. This research effort demonstrates the viability of using systems dynamics modeling techniques to simulate the establishment of public order and safety in a post-conflict reconstruction operation (Phase IV operations). A high level generic framework is developed that can be used as a general template for modeling post-conflict reconstruction. It is then demonstrated with a notional test case based on the OIF AOR. iv Table of Contents Page Abstract.............................................................................................................................. iv List of Figures................................................................................................................... vii List of Tables ...................................................................................................................viii I. Introduction .................................................................................................................... 1 Background..................................................................................................................... 1 Problem Statement.......................................................................................................... 3 Methodology................................................................................................................... 4 Summary......................................................................................................................... 5 II. Literature Review........................................................................................................... 6 Introduction..................................................................................................................... 6 Systems Dynamics Literature ......................................................................................... 6 Post-Conflict Reconstruction Literature ....................................................................... 12 Summary....................................................................................................................... 16 III. Methodology............................................................................................................... 18 Selection of Variables................................................................................................... 18 Rates of Change............................................................................................................ 22 Indigenous Security Institutions Sub-model............................................................. 27 Law Enforcement Sub-model ................................................................................... 34 Insurgent and Coalition Military Activities Sub-model............................................ 41 Labor Market Sub-model.......................................................................................... 49 Critical Infrastructure Sub-model ............................................................................. 54 Public Opinion Sub-model........................................................................................ 59 Summary....................................................................................................................... 61 IV. Illustration................................................................................................................... 62 Notional Scenario: Regime Change.............................................................................. 62 Variables ....................................................................................................................... 63 The Rates of Change..................................................................................................... 65 Iraqi Security Institutions.......................................................................................... 66 Law Enforcement...................................................................................................... 73 Insurgent and Coalition Military Activities .............................................................. 79 Iraqi Labor Market.................................................................................................... 87 Iraqi Public Opinion.................................................................................................. 95 Screening Experiment................................................................................................... 97 v Page Results......................................................................................................................... 101 Summary..................................................................................................................... 104 V. Conclusions................................................................................................................ 105 Conclusions about the General Model and Its Application ........................................ 105 Areas for Further Research......................................................................................... 106 Appendix A: General Model State Variables ................................................................. 109 Appendix B: General Model Equations.......................................................................... 111 Indigenous Security Institutions Sub-model Equations.............................................. 111 Law Enforcement Sub-model Equations .................................................................... 112 Insurgent and Coalition Military Activities Equations............................................... 112 Labor Market Sub-model Equations........................................................................... 113 Critical Infrastructure Sub-model Equations .............................................................. 113 Public Opinion Sub-model Equations......................................................................... 114 Appendix C: Two and Three Factor Parameter Estimates.............................................. 115 Bibliography ................................................................................................................... 117 vi List of Figures Page Figure 2.1. Systems Dynamics Model of a Multistage Distribution system ...................... 8 Figure 3.1: General Post-Conflict Reconstruction Model……………………………………….....25 Figure 3.2: Sub-model Connections ................................................................................ 27 Figure 3.3: Indigenous Security Institutions Sub-model……………………………………….......29 Figure 3.4: Law Enforcement Sub-model........................................................................ 35 Figure 3.5: Insurgent and Coalition Military Activities Sub-model................................ 42 Figure 3.6: Labor Market Sub-model .............................................................................. 50 Figure 3.7: Critical Infrastructure Sub-model..................................................................
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