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From Insurgency to Stability Volume I: Key Capabilities and Practices CHILDREN AND FAMILIES The RAND Corporation is a nonprofit institution that EDUCATION AND THE ARTS helps improve policy and decisionmaking through ENERGY AND ENVIRONMENT research and analysis. HEALTH AND HEALTH CARE This electronic document was made available from INFRASTRUCTURE AND www.rand.org as a public service of the RAND TRANSPORTATION Corporation. INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS LAW AND BUSINESS NATIONAL SECURITY Skip all front matter: Jump to Page 16 POPULATION AND AGING PUBLIC SAFETY SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY Support RAND Purchase this document TERRORISM AND HOMELAND SECURITY Browse Reports & Bookstore Make a charitable contribution For More Information Visit RAND at www.rand.org Explore the RAND National Defense Research Institute View document details Limited Electronic Distribution Rights This document and trademark(s) contained herein are protected by law as indicated in a notice appearing later in this work. This electronic representation of RAND intellectual property is provided for non-commercial use only. Unauthorized posting of RAND electronic documents to a non-RAND website is prohibited. RAND electronic documents are protected under copyright law. Permission is required from RAND to reproduce, or reuse in another form, any of our research documents for commercial use. For information on reprint and linking permissions, please see RAND Permissions. This product is part of the RAND Corporation monograph series. RAND monographs present major research findings that address the challenges facing the public and private sectors. All RAND mono- graphs undergo rigorous peer review to ensure high standards for research quality and objectivity. From Insurgency to Stability Volume I: Key Capabilities and Practices Angel Rabasa, John Gordon IV, Peter Chalk, Christopher S. Chivvis, Audra K. Grant, K. Scott McMahon, Laurel E. Miller, Marco Overhaus, Stephanie Pezard Prepared for the Office of the Secretary of Defense Approved for public release; distribution unlimited NATIONAL DEFENSE RESEARCH INSTITUTE The research described in this report was prepared for the Office of the Secretary of Defense (OSD). The research was conducted within the RAND National Defense Research Institute, a federally funded research and development center sponsored by OSD, the Joint Staff, the Unified Combatant Commands, the Navy, the Marine Corps, the defense agencies, and the defense Intelligence Community under Contract W74V8H- 06-C-0002. Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data From insurgency to stability / Angel Rabasa ... [et al.]. p. cm. Includes bibliographical references. ISBN 978-0-8330-5299-5 (pbk. : v. 1 : alk. paper) — ISBN 978-0-8330-5314-5 (pbk. : v. 2 : alk. paper) 1. Counterinsurgency. 2. Counterinsurgency —Case studies. 3. Peace-building— Case studies. 4. United States—Armed Forces—Stability operations—Case studies. I. Rabasa, Angel. II. Rand Corporation. U241.F76 2011 355.4'25—dc23 2011029543 The RAND Corporation is a nonprofit institution that helps improve policy and decisionmaking through research and analysis. RAND’s publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions of its research clients and sponsors. R® is a registered trademark. Cover photo by Staff Sgt. Stephen J. Otero/U.S. Air Force © Copyright 2011 RAND Corporation Permission is given to duplicate this document for personal use only, as long as it is unaltered and complete. Copies may not be duplicated for commercial purposes. Unauthorized posting of RAND documents to a non-RAND website is prohibited. RAND documents are protected under copyright law. For information on reprint and linking permissions, please visit the RAND permissions page (http://www.rand.org/publications/ permissions.html). Published 2011 by the RAND Corporation 1776 Main Street, P.O. Box 2138, Santa Monica, CA 90407-2138 1200 South Hayes Street, Arlington, VA 22202-5050 4570 Fifth Avenue, Suite 600, Pittsburgh, PA 15213-2665 RAND URL: http://www.rand.org To order RAND documents or to obtain additional information, contact Distribution Services: Telephone: (310) 451-7002; Fax: (310) 451-6915; Email: [email protected] Preface This monograph is the first of two volumes that examine how insur- gencies transition from a high level of violence to a more stable situ- ation. This volume identifies the procedures and capabilities that the U.S. Department of Defense and other agencies of the U.S. govern- ment require in order to support the transition from counterinsurgency (COIN) to conditions of greater stability, the capabilities available to the United States and to U.S. allies and international organizations, and shortfalls and associated issues. The second volume From( Insur- gency to Stability, Volume II, Insights from Selected Case Studies, MG- 1111/2-OSD) examines a number of case studies to determine the key factors that produced a successful transition to stability. This mono- graph should be of interest to the U.S. Department of Defense and other agencies of the U.S. government, as well as government and nongovernmental organizations in countries that are concerned with insurgency and counterinsurgency. This research was sponsored by the Office of the Secretary of Defense and conducted within the International Security and Defense Policy Center of the RAND National Defense Research Institute, a federally funded research and development center sponsored by the Office of the Secretary of Defense, the Joint Staff, the Unified Com- batant Commands, the Navy, the Marine Corps, the defense agencies, and the defense Intelligence Community. For more information on the International Security and Defense Policy Center, see http://www.rand.org/nsrd/about/isdp.html or con- tact the director (contact information is provided on the web page). iii Contents Preface . ............................................................................ iii Figures . ............................................................................ xi Tables . ............................................................................xiii Summary . .........................................................................xv Acknowledgments . .......................................................... xxxiii Abbreviations . ................................................................. xxxv CHAPTER ONE Introduction . ...................................................................... 1 The Goals of This Research . ...................................................... 1 The Fragile Transition . ............................................................ 2 COIN Transition . ................................................................. 2 Different Levels of U.S. Involvement in Counterinsurgency . ................ 4 Major U.S. Involvement in the Counterinsurgency . ........................ 6 Limited U.S. Involvement . ..................................................... 8 No U.S. Involvement . ........................................................... 9 Implications of Different Outcome Scenarios . ................................10 CHAPTER TWO U.S. Interagency Planning and Implementation—Vision and Reality in 2010 . .............................................................13 The Department of State Coordinator for Reconstruction and Stabilization and the Civilian Response Corps . .........................13 Prospects for Improved Approaches to Interagency Planning and Execution of SROs . ..........................................................19 v vi From Insurgency to Stability, Volume I: Key Capabilities and Practice Contractors as Vehicles for Continuity . ...................................... 26 Information Systems . ............................................................29 CHAPTER THREE Military-to-Civilian Hand-Off of Security and Economic Operations . ..................................................................31 Describing Security and Economic Operations . ..............................32 Military Hand-Off of Security Operations . ..................................32 Sustaining Military-to-Military Relations . ..................................33 Hand-Off of Policing and Public Safety Programs . ..........................35 Hand-Off of Intelligence, Surveillance, and Reconnaissance Programs . .................................................................... 36 Hand-Off of Economic Operations to Civilian Agency Leadership . ...... 38 Provincial Reconstruction Teams . ...........................................39 The United States Agency for International Development . .............. 40 The DoD in Economic Operations . ..........................................41 Economic Operations in Iraq . ............................................... 42 Hand-Off Challenges During Operation Iraqi Freedom . ................... 46 Project Coordination, Assessment, and Transfer . ......................... 46 Civilian Staffing and Continuity of Project Oversight . .................. 48 The Evolution of the PRTs After the Transition . ...........................49 CHAPTER FOUR Disarmament, Demobilization, and Reintegration . ......................51 The Concept of DDR . ............................................................52 Definition . .......................................................................52 DDR Phases and Prerequisites . ..................................................53 Eligibility Criteria for Inclusion in DDR Programs . .......................59 Women . ..........................................................................62 Child Soldiers . ..................................................................62
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