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Terrorism and Beyond If you have issues viewing or accessing this file contact us at NCJRS.gov. " ''" Terrorism and Beyond An International Conference on Terrorism and Low-Level Conflict Brian M. Jenkins, Conference Director , • " and11' r The research reporteg herein wa& sllppc.rted in part by the U.S. DepartmentofEner~ r~ U.S. Department of Justice, and the U.S. Department of State, under Contract 1724- 020184, and in part by The Rand Corporation using its own research funds. R-2714-DOEjDOJjDOSjRC u.s. Department 01 .Justlce HGtlonallmltftute of Juatice Terroris", q~d Beyond This document has been reproduced exactly .as rocei~e? fro~ the pofSO:i or organization originating It. Points of View or optnlons st8t~ in thi~ document are those of the authors and do. not nec~ssnnl}' represeot the Qf!.icial position or policies of th~ National Institute 01 An International Conference on Justice. Pennission to reproduce this nntigbfed mai&rial has been Terrorism and Low.Lev~ Conflict gr~bJ:ic na:nain/US De\>t. of Engery -.U.S.. Dept. of state/QS Dept. of J~stice to the National Criminal Justice Reierence Service (NCJRS). Brian M. Jenkins, Conference Director Furth. r~7oductioo outside of the NCJRS SY$tttml8qulr9S permis· akwl of the 01" ripS 0Wfl6i'. December 1982 Prepared for The U.S. Department of Energy The U.S. Department of Justice The Rand Publication Series: The Report is the principal The U.S. Department of State publication documenting and transmitting Rand's major research findings and final research results. The Rand Note \ 1 reports other outputs of sponsored research for general j distribution. Publications of The Rand Corporation do not J necessarily reflect the opinions or policies of the sponsors of i Rand research. :1 ." Ij '" l~ 1 li " \ ) Rand SANTA MONICA. CA. 90406 Published by The Rand Corporation 1 I'~i'\ PREFACE ACKNOWLEDGMENTS As ~art of its continuing program of research on political violence, It terro~lsm, and other aspects of subnational conflict, The Rand Cor­ is more enjoyable to attend conferences than it is to organize and poratIon hosted an International Conference on Terrorism and Low­ host one. A conference attended by 144 persons from 13 countries is a Level ~o.nflict in September 1980. The sponsorship of this conference major undertaking that requires the cooperation and assistance of was a JOInt undertaking by the Department of Energy, the Depart­ many. ~ent of Justice, the Department of State, and The Rand Corporation Special thanks are due to Ambassador Anthony C.E. Quainton, Di­ Itself. rector of the U.S. Department of State's Office for Combating Terror­ . The confer.ence had three objectives: First, it provided an opportu­ ism, who at a conference in Tel Aviv a year earlier first suggested the mty to examIne recent events, identify any new trends in terrorism idea of continuing the international exchange with a conference in a.n? exchange information on countermeh,(-:.ures. Second, it gave par~ the United States. Ambassador Quainton mustered the necessary tIcIpants a chance to review more generally wha.t had been learned support in government, provided continued encouragement and assis­ abo~t the phenomeno? of terrorism in the 1970s and to explore its tance to the effort, and opened the conference itself with a provocative possIble future co~rse"In ~h.e 1980s. The third objective was to identify and challenging address. the means by whIch IndIvIdual research efforts in various countries The conference was a joint undertaking involving financial support could b~ .coordinated and the results of this research shared. from the Department of State, the Department of Justice, the Depart­ ment of Energy, and The Rand Corporation. A special debt of grati­ ~a.rtlcIpants at the conference addressed four areas: the terrorist enVIronment, the terrorist mindset, the government response and the tude is owed for the personal support and assistance given by George future course of terrorism. This report summarizes the discu~sions in Weisz, Director of the Office of Safeguards and Security in the De­ these four areas. It also includes eleven contributed papers that were pa:;:tment of Energy; Perry Rivkind, Assistant Administrator/Oper­ used as resource material for the discussions. ations Support, of the Law Enforcement Assistance Agency in the De­ partment of Justice; and Eric Willenz, Chairman, Europe & Global Research Group, of the Bureau of Intelligence & Research in the De­ partment of State. Their involvement went far beyond merely repre­ senting the sponsoring agencies. Appreciation is also expressed to General Edward C. Meyer, Chief of Staff of the U.S. Army, for his continuing encouragement of re­ search in this area, and for taking time from his busy schedule to participate in the conference. For his assistance in identifying and inviting key officials from the United States and abroad and for his many helpful suggestions, we are grateful to George Tanham of The Rand Corporation. 1 The conference benefited greatly from the members of Rand's re­ "I l i s~arch staff who assisted in the conference preparations and in the Ii i; simulations and who participated as hosts, guides, whips, and rappor­ ,1 ~ teurs in the various working groups. Appreciation is expressed to :i I Gail Bass, William Fowler, Konrad Kellen, Joseph Krofcheck, Mar­ \ vin Lavin, Joyce Peterson, Geri Petty, Susanna Purnell, Robert Rein­ i~ ,q stedt, David Ronfeldt, William Sater, Peter Tripodes, Eleanor Wain­ I' stein, and Sorrel Wildhorn. iii Prpcpdin cr nacre hi ~nlt v f' vi At every conference, there are one or two persons whose unstinting efforts behind the scenes make everything run smoothly. In this case, there were four. For the several hundred things they did before the conference (and for handling with diplomacy and good humor the in­ evitable little crises that arose during the conference), fond apprecia­ ." tion is expressed to the effective backstage team of Claude Culp, Toby t\1Cl R4!i' f O'Brien, Suzy Goulet, and Bernadine Siuda. .............................................. It is an unfortunate fact of contemporary life that major confer­ i~ 1 ences must consider the problem of security. This is especially true of Y a major international confe'rence on terrorism. Security preparations i began as the first invitations were sent out. That the conference did ~J not become an event in its own subject area is owed to the sound i suggestions and combined efforts of the Santa Monica Police Depart­ INTRODUCTION AND OVERVIEW, by Brian Jenkins ........ b ~ • J,J- r ...... r. t ._........... a....,. ~ ment, the Los Angeles Police Department, the Los Angeles Sheriff's OPENING ADDRESS, by Ambassador Anthony Quainton ..... 30 Office, the Federal Bureau of Investigation, and The Rand Corpora­ tion's own security force. LOW-LEVEL CONFLICT: AN OVERVIEW, by Gen. Edward C. We are indebted to Robert Perry and Arthur Alexander, who made Meyer .................................................. 38 a number of useful suggestions for improving this report, and to Janet DeLand for useful suggestions in organizing the report and for her PART 2: AGENDA AND SUMMARY OF DISCUSSIONS skillful editing. Joyce Peterson also assisted in the editing, and Alyce Raphael worked flawlessly and fast in the preparation of the volumi­ Session 1: THE TERRORIST ENVIRONMENT............... 45 nous manuscript. The conference was visually enriched by the bold Agenda of Topics ........................................ 45 graphics designs of J. Michael Jenkins. Summary of Discussions ................ .. 46 Finally, although mentioned before, a very special thanks is due to Session 2: TERRORIST MINDSETS AND THEIR my secretary Bernadine Siuda for her enthusiastic hard work in the IMPLICATIONS ........................................ 52 organization of the conference and in the preparation of this report. Agenda of Topics ........................................ 52 Summary of Discussions. .. 53 Session 3: THE GOVERNMENT RESPONSE ................. 70 Agenda of Topics ........................................ 70 Summary of Discussions ................................ " 72 Session 4: THE FUTURE COURSE OF TERRORISM ......... 90 Agenda of Topics ........................................ 90 Summary of Discussions. .. 91 PART 3: RESOURCE PAPERS CONFLICT: A TURKISH VIEW, by Lt. Gen. Ihsan Gurkan 101 ~SCRIPTION OF A RESEARCH PROJECT TO STUDY THE ~ CAUSES OF TERRORISM, by Dr. Reinhard Rupprecht ..... 115 \ HE PSYCHOLOG~OF T~TERRORIST, by Dr. Risto Fried. 119 '\n~\ TERRORISTS!-WHAT ARE THEY LIKE? HOW SOME TERRORISTS DESCRIBE THEIR WORLD [AND ACTIONS, __ hy Konrad Kellen .. , . .. • viii LpERATION'riEO: DESCRIPTION AND ANALYSIS OF A Cm\?~ V L v EUROPEA~ TERRORISt-OPERATION, by Professor Jacob f PR~;~::~S ';b~':' ~;~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ ............... 174 L ~~6E~6':~:iE~~:~~~~L~~~~R:~~~~STIC C\ \1~ AND INTERNAT1f9..N~L LEVELS, by Paul Wilkinson ...... 203 TERRORISl\~ND COUNTERMEASURES: AN AL YSIS A VERSUS A PARTICIPANT'S OBeERVATIONS, q\l~5' by Lt. Col. Hanan Alan .................................. 233 THE SIEGE AT PRINCESS GATE: ATTACK ON THE IRANIAN EMBASSY, by R. J. Andrew .................. " 243 Part 1 [TERRORISM~SUMMARY OF APPLICABLE U.S. AND ctl1110 Ir INTRODUCTION INTERNb,TIONAL LAW, by Louis G. Fields, Jr . ........... 247 THE ROLE OF THEi1EDERAL EMERGENCY 1 MANAGEMENT AGENCY IN RESPONSE TO / THE CONSEQUENCES Cf-TERRORISM, qn~1 by David L. Marvil ........... , .......................... 266 TERRORISM IN THE MARINE ENVIRONMENT, by Douglas G. Macnair ............................................. 273 Appendix:
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