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Tianyun International | 6836.HK Tianyun International | 6836.HK Rating BUY Maintain Prepare for a new milestone Target Price HKD 1.66 From HK$1.99 Current price HKD 1.25 Upside: 32.8% % Controlling shareholder selling 27% stake to Sichuan SOE Tianyun announced on Sept 28 morning that the controlling shareholder, Company Updates Wealthy Active, has entered into a conditional share transfer agreement with Sichuan Development International Holdings Company Limited (SDIH). SDIH 15 October 2018 agrees to purchase Tianyun’s 27% stake at HK$1.58 (total consideration at ~HK$417mn), which represents a 35%/23.4% premium vs. closing price on Sept Hayman Chiu 27 and Tianyun’s IPO price at HK$1.28. The completion of the deal is subject to [email protected] conditions including SASAC’s approval. (852) 2235 7677 Upon completion of the deal (expected to close in end Oct 2018), SDIH would become Tianyun’s single largest shareholder, while Wealth Active and Chairman Trading data Yang Ziyuan’s stake in Tianyun would be lowered to 19.2%. Yang will continue to 52-Week Range (HK$) 1.50/1.01 be the executive director and CEO. Tianyun will appoint two new directors (who 3 Mth Avg Daily Vol (m) 3.16 would become the Chairman of the board and thee chairman of the nomination No of Shares (m) 977.46 committee) and CFO. Market Cap (HK$m) 1,221.83 Major Shareholders (%) Yang Ziyuan (46.2%) SDIH’s parent co, SDH (Sichuan Development Holdings Co. Ltd), was Auditors PWC established by the Sichuan’s Provincial People’s Government in Jan 2009 with a Result Due FY18: Mar 2019 registered capital of RMB 80bn. By end-2017, SDH’s income came in at RMB 170bn with the total assets of RMB906bn. SDH’s current business include transportation, energy, finance, mining, infrastructure and real estate, modern Company description service industry (such as tourism, education, healthcare) etc. Tianyun’s share Established in January 2003 and listed in HKEx in July price rose as much as ~14% after the deal was announced, which primarily 2015, Tianyun sells their products (processed fruit in reflects market’s positive response on this deal. We are expecting more in-depth China and to overseas on an OEM basis, current clients include renowned international brands such as colours from the management on the future development with SDIH after the Del Monte and Tesco (TSCO.LN) etc. Tianyun has deal completed. been promoting its own brand products under “Tiantong Food” (天同食品), “Bingo -My Times-”(繽果 1H18 result in-line, high margin own brand to drive growth and OEM 時代) and “Guo Xiao Lan”(果小懶), in the PRC and picked up overseas countries. Tianyun commenced sales of Tiantong Food products in Hong Kong's supermarket chains in 2015. By June 2018, Tianyun currently has Tianyun’s 1H18 result was generally in-line with our estimates, with sales and 204 distributors EPS grew 28%/29% to RMB439.3mn/RMB67.5mn respectively (accounted for 48.5%/43.5% of our FY18E estimates) thanks to higher margin own brand Price chart business (1H18 GM:30.9%, +340bps Yoy), and stabilizing raw material cost which drove blended GM up by 80bps to 27.8% (vs. 27.0% in 1H17). Tianyun’s own brand revenue soared 51% Yoy to RMB 209.5mn (47.7% of total revenue) driven by both increased in the number of distributors (added 20 distributors vs. FY 17) and partial ASP hike. Meanwhile, online sales arrived at RMB35.2mn (16.8% of own brand sales) as the Company’s investment in e-commerce platforms such as WeChat Business and TMall began to bear fruit. Tianyun aims to launch more new products (such as trans fat free fruit snack and fruit pudding) in 2H18E to further diversify product SKUs. Sources: Bloomberg, CIRL Tianyun’s OEM revenue grew 16.1% to RMB181.4mn (41.9% of total revenue) thanks to overseas clients’ product demand. As Tianyun’s overseas sales FLASH NOTE represent short-term accounted for ~10% of total revenue in 1H18, together with their diverse clientele trading ideas by Cinda International worldwide including Europe, Canada, Australia and New Zealand, we believe the Research which are distinguished from our normal coverage. The escalating US-China trade dispute would have minimal impact on Tianyun’s recommended stocks may not sales. be continually followed. Page 1 of 10 . Hubei plant still ramping up;Homemade Harvey deal broke up Tianyun completed the acquisition of Yichang Tiantong (YT, a processed fruit company in Hubei) on Jan 30, 2018 and it is still in ramping up stage. With production capacity expected to increase 15% CAGR in FY16-20E to ~104k tonnes, we still believe Tianyun’s ability to take extra orders from both existing and new clients. Currently with 12 production lines (with designed capacity ~25k-30k tones per annum), Tianyun aims to introduce more fruit types from subtropical region and develop new fruit products for both its OEM customers and own brand and targets YT to ramp up to ~15k tonnes in FY18E. Meanwhile, Tianyun was unable to reach a purchase agreement with Homemade Harvey but still looking for other M&As including their intention to acquire a company focused in processing tropical fruits Functional beverage to launch in 4Q18 Management shared with us that partnership with the Tai Wei is still generally on track and the functional beverage drink was well-received by distributors during pre-marketing stage, they targets to launch the product in 4Q18. However, we still have not yet factored in the contribution in our earnings estimates, and continue to wait for more colours in FY18 results (expected due in March 2019). Given the low consumption per capita, we believe China’s functional drinks market will continue to benefit from rising disposable income and improving consumers’ health awareness. Undemanding FY18E 6.6x PE, attractive to ride on new business growth potential We lifted Tianyun’s FY18E/19E EPS by 3.1%/7.6% to reflect higher than expected sales with new product sales not taken into account. The counter is trading at FY18E/19E 6.6x/5.2x PE (~66%/63% discount to weighted average of HK, A-share listed and international peers) still looks attractive to us and continues to deserve a re-rating. We value Tianyun’s new TP at HK$1.66 based on 9.8x weighted average FY18E PE under current unfavourable market sentiment for small caps (vs. 10.1x in our last update in Apr 2018, ~55% discount to peers’ weighted average). We expect Tianyun’s revenue and adjusted EPS to grow at 21.9%/24.6% CAGR in FY17-FY20E driven by increasing contribution from current own brand and stable OEM business. We identify the following upside catalysts for Tianyun: i) More colours on future development with SDH should the deal completed ii) Successful ramp up of Hubei plant, iii) Well-received market response of new own-brand product, and iv) Better than expected sales from functional beverage Page 2 of 10 Exhibit 1: We lifted Tianyun’s FY18E/19E EPS on higher sales assumption (excl. new business segment) Exhibit 1: FY18 (old) FY18 (new) Diff FY19 (old) FY19 (new) Diff Pork Revenue 906 935 3.2% 1,080 1,140 5.6% products sold in GP 260 265 1.9% 317 335 5.8% supermarke t counters GPM 28.7% 28.4% -30bps 29.3% 29.4% 10bps Net Profit 155 160 3.1% 190 205 7.6% 3.1% 7.6% EPS 0.159 0.164 0.195 0.209 Year to Dec (RMB mn) FY16A FY17A FY18E FY19E FY20E Segment Revene OEM 382 345 410 462 521 Own Brand 188 322 447 600 753 Trading of fresh fruit & others 83 78 79 79 78 Group 654 746 935 1,140 1,352 Segment Revenue Growth OEM 2.8% -9.7% 18.6% 12.8% 12.8% Own Brand 87.3% 71.4% 38.7% 34.2% 25.6% Trading of fresh fruit & others 2.5% -6.0% 0.4% 0.4% -1.1% Group 18.0% 14.1% 25.4% 22.0% 18.6% GM 30.5% 27.4% 28.4% 29.4% 29.4% Source: Company data, CIRL estimates Page 3 of 10 Exhibit 2: Tianyun’s GM improved in 1H18 on year-on-year basis YearExhibit to Dec (RMB 1: mn) 1H14 2H14 1H15 2H15 1H16 2H16 1H17 2H17 1H18 OEM 141 174 158 214 171 212 156 189 181.4 Pork Yoy(%) - - 12.7% 23.1% 7.7% -0.9% -8.4% -10.8% 16.1% % of revenue 69.4% 70.8% 62.4% 71.3% 55.5% 61.2% 45.5% 47.0% 41.3% Ownproducts Brand 17 33.1 49.8 50.5 90.1 97.8 138.7 183.4 209.5 Yoy(%) - - 189.5% 52.6% 80.9% 93.7% 53.9% 87.5% 51.0% sold in % of revenue 8.5% 13.5% 19.6% 16.8% 29.3% 28.3% 40.4% 45.6% 47.7% Tradingsupermarket of fresh fruit & others 45 39 46 36 47 36 48 30 48.4 Yoy(%) - - 1.8% -7.5% 3.1% 1.7% 3.0% -17.6% 0.2% % of revenue 22.1% 15.7% 17.9% 11.9% 15.2% 10.5% 14.1% 7.4% 11.0% Totalcounters 202 245 254 300 308 346 343 402 439 Yoy(%) - - 25.3% 22.3% 21.2% 15.3% 11.6% 16.3% 28.0% Gross Margin Breakdown (By Segment) Year to Dec (RMB mn) 1H14 2H14 1H15 2H15 1H16 2H16 1H17 2H17 1H18 OEM 39 59 51 72 55 68 47 56 51 Yoy(%) - 51.8% 30.2% 21.5% 9.7% -4.8% -14.4% -17.8% 8.0% GM 27.6% 33.9% 31.9% 33.5% 32.5% 32.2% 30.3% 29.6% 28.2% % of total GM 72.0% 72.5% 66.2% 74.7% 58.8% 64.7% 51.1% 34.1% 41.9% Own Brand 5 11 15 17 28 30 38 107 65 Yoy(%) - 132.8% 214.9% 58.1% 89.2% 71.6% 36.4% 259.4% 69.6% GM 27.3% 33.1% 29.7% 34.2% 31.1% 30.4% 27.5% 58.2% 30.9% % of total GM 8.7% 13.5% 19.4% 18.0% 29.7% 28.2% 41.2% 64.9% 53.1% Trading of fresh fruit & others 10 11 11 7 11 7 7 2 6 Yoy(%) - 9.9% 5.8% -38.8% -1.8% 6.1% -33.3% -78.4% -15.3% GM 23.3% 29.6% 24.2% 19.6% 23.0% 20.4% 14.9% 5.4% 12.6% % of total GM 19.3% 14.1% 14.4% 7.3% 11.5% 7.1% 7.8% 1.0% 5.0% Total 54 81 76 96 94 105 93 164 122 Yoy(%) - - 41.6% 18.0% 23.5% 9.8% -1.5% 56.1% 31.6% Blended GM 26.6% 33.1% 30.1% 32.0% 30.6% 30.4% 27.0% 40.8% 27.8% Source: Company data, CIRL Exhibit 3: Tianyun’s GPM would stabilize, while own brand business contributes ~45% of GP (vs.28% in FY16) Exhibit40.0% 1: 100% 18.2 8.8 21.8 18.0 Pork35.0% 90% 18.4 21.8 80% 32.1 30.0%
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