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Tianyun International | 6836.HK Tianyun International | 6836.HK Rating BUY Maintain Solid FY19 result and more to come Target Price HKD 1.45 From: HK$2.07 Current price HKD 0.83 Upside: 75.0% % Solid FY19 result, GM flattish Company Update Tianyun has delivered another set of solid result in FY19, with both sales and net 8 June 2020 profit grew 13.0%/14.4% to RMB1,036mn/RMB169mn respectively with GM stayed flattish Yoy at 27.9%. During the period, OEM sales dropped 6.6 Yoy to RMB339mn due to US-Sino trade tension and hence lower their exposure to US Hayman Chiu clients, while own brand grew another 31.0% to RMB632mn driven by continued [email protected] sales channel expansion (net add 96 distributors in FY19). We believe Tianyun (852) 2235 7677 continue to focus on own brand business, while OEM business acts as a stable source of cashflow to support own brand development. Trading data Own brand continues to drive sales growth, OEM to lower US exposure 52-Week Range (HK$) 1.27/0.68 3 Mth Avg Daily Vol (m) 3.0 Tianyun’s own brand revenue was up 31.0% Yoy to RMB 632mn (61.0% of total No of Shares (m) 977.46 revenue), Tianyun currently has 210 distributors (vs. 204 in 1H18) and Market Cap (HK$m) 811.3 management would expect number of distributors w but GM dropped 3.7ppts to Major Shareholders (%) Sichuan Dev. (27.0%) 27.1% due to change in processed fruit product mix while ASP remained stable. Yang Ziyuan (19.6%) Meanwhile, online sales grew 2.6% to RMB73.7mn (11.7% of own brand sales) Auditors PWC as the Company’s investment in e-commerce platforms such as WeChat Result Due 1H20E: Aug 2020 Business and TMall continue to play a part in own brand’s revenue growth. Tianyun has launched more new products (such as trans fat free fruit snack) in Company description and target to further diversify product SKUs in FY20E including sports beverage. Established in January 2003 and listed in HKEx in July 2015, Tianyun sells their products (processed fruit in Tianyun’s OEM revenue came in at RMB339mn (-6.6% Yoy and took up 32.7% China and to overseas on an OEM basis, current of total revenue), while GM picked up 350bps to 32.2% due to higher ASP. clients include renowned international brands such as Though Tianyun’s overseas sales contribution further lowered to 4% in FY19, Del Monte and Tesco (TSCO.LN) etc. Tianyun has been promoting its own brand products under with their diverse clientele worldwide including Europe, Canada, Australia and “Tiantong Food” (天同食品), “Bingo -My Times-”(繽果 New Zealand, we continue to believe the current client portfolio would support 時代) and “Guo Xiao Lan”(果小懶), in the PRC and Tianyun’s OEM sales grow at a stable pace in FY20E-FY22E, while we continue overseas countries. Tianyun commenced sales of to believe the US-China trade dispute would have minimal impact on Tianyun’s Tiantong Food products in Hong Kong's supermarket sales. chains in 2015. By December 2019, Tianyun currently has 306 exclusive regional distributors covering supermarket chains including Auchan, RT-Mart, CR Deepen strategic co-operation with SDIC and international partners Vanguard and AEON etc As mentioned in our initiation report in Apr 2019, since SDIH becoming Tianyun’s Price chart single largest shareholder (27%) in end 2018, Tianyun announced in Feb 2019 HK$ that Tianyun and SDIH will set up a JV with initial investment at RMB 200mn 1.6 (70/30 spilt) in Sichuan Province to collaborate in developing a supply chain for 1.4 1.2 processed agricultural and food products, and a base for supply of raw materials 1.0 that complies with international standards. The JV would focus on business such 0.8 as fruit and vegetable international trade, grading, canning and processing. The 0.6 0.4 JV would also involve in the production of fruit and vegetable ice-cream, 0.2 functional beverage. 0.0 Jul-18 Jul-19 Jul-17 Oct-17 Oct-19 Oct-18 Jan-18 Apr-19 Jan-20 Apr-20 Apr-18 Jan-19 Feb-18 Mar-18 Feb-19 Mar-19 Jun-19 Mar-20 Jun-17 Jun-18 Feb-20 Sep-17 Dec-17 Sep-19 Dec-19 Sep-18 Dec-18 Nov-17 Nov-19 Nov-18 Aug-17 May-18 May-19 Aug-19 May-20 Aug-18 In addition, Tianyun announced in June 2019 that they have signed a strategic Sources: Bloomberg, CIRL co-operation memorandum with SDIH and JC Food, which is a Japanese food enterprise under Sumitomo group, SC Food. Tianyun would be selling OEM products and would develop new products to fulfill Japanese market demand. Page 1 of 80 Tianyun also built up strategic partnership with a renowned beverage enterprise in November 2019, they will develop special and sport beverage products and set up relevant production facilities. The operation will kick off in 2H20E with designed capacity at 40k ton/year. Hubei plant to further ramp up in FY20E Tianyun completed the acquisition of Yichang Tiantong (YT, a processed fruit company in Hubei) on Jan 30, 2018 and it is still in ramping up stage (FY18: estimated to be ~16k tons/year). Tianyun aims to introduce more fruit types from subtropical region and develop new fruit products for both its OEM customers and own brand. With current production capacity at ~100k tons/ year and expects to increase to ~140k tons/year in FY20E through production optimization in Shandong plant (target designed capacity at ~110k tons/ year) and further ramp up of Hubei plant (target designed capacity at ~30k tons/year). Tianyun expects total designed capacity would reach ~205k tons by FY21E, driven by full operation of production workshop No. 5 and No. 6, as well as the initial contribution from Sichuan plant’s operation from FY20E. We still believe Tianyun’s ability to take new orders from both existing and new clients. Undemanding FY20E 4.1x PE, increased own brand contribution continue to favour re-rating We lower Tianyun’s FY20E/21E EPS by 24.2%/23.3% to reflect lower sales and GM forecasts, with sports beverage sales not taken into account. We expect Tianyun’s revenue and adjusted EPS to grow at 12.8%/13.6% CAGR in FY18-FY21E driven by increasing contribution from current own brand and stable OEM business, and the counter is trading at FY20E/21E 4.1x/3.5x PE (~77%/74% discount to weighted average of HK, A-share listed and international peers) still looks attractive to us. As own brand already took up 59%/58% of FY19 sales and GM, these re-affirms our view that Tianyun’s own brand business is growing on the right track and continues to deserve a re-rating in the long run. With solid track record since listing and healthy financial position, we maintain Tianyun’s rating at BUY and value its TP at HK$1.45 based on 7.1x weighted average FY19E PE (60% discount to peers’ 17.8x weighted average PE vs. 55% discount in our last update due to weakened market sentiment and lower investors’ risk appetite for small caps). We still identify the following upside catalysts for Tianyun: i) Successful ramp up of Hubei plant, ii) Well-received market response of new own-brand product, iii) Better than expected sales/ market response from sports beverage and iv) News flow on SIDH and Tianyun JV Page 2 of 8 Exhibit 1: We lower Tianyun’s FY20E/21E sales and earnings forecasts Exhibit 1: Earnings Forecasts Revision PorkFY20 (old) FY20(new) Diff FY21 (old) FY21(new) Diff products1,342 1,154 -14.0% 1,540 1,351 -12.3% sold in 396 317 -19.9% 459 374 -18.6% supermarke t counters 29.5% 27.5% -200bps 29.8% 27.7% -210bps 239 182 -23.9% 276 213 -23.0% 0.244 0.185 -24.2% 0.282 0.216 -23.3% Source: Company data, CIRL estimates Exhibit 2: Tianyun’s GM stayed flattish in 2H19 Gross Margin Breakdown (By Segment) Exhibit 1: Year to Dec (RMB mn) 1H16 2H16 1H17 2H17 1H18 2H18 1H19 2H19 Pork OEMproducts 55 68 47 56 51 53 50 59 Yoy(%) 9.7% -4.8% -14.4% -17.8% 8.0% -5.5% -2.1% 11.3% sold in GM 32.5% 32.2% 30.3% 29.6% 28.2% 29.2% 30.1% 34.2% supermarket % of total GM 58.8% 64.7% 51.1% 33.4% 41.9% 37.5% 39.2% 35.0% Owncounters Brand 28 30 38 110 65 84 74 97 Yoy(%) 89.2% 71.6% 36.4% 271.2% 69.6% -24.1% 14.4% 16.4% GM 31.1% 30.4% 27.5% 60.1% 30.9% 30.6% 28.7% 26.0% % of total GM 29.7% 28.2% 41.2% 65.7% 53.1% 59.2% 57.9% 57.9% Trading of fresh fruit & others 11 7 7 2 6 5 4 12 Yoy(%) -1.8% 6.1% -33.3% -78.4% -15.3% 193.8% -39.3% 153.2% GM 23.0% 20.4% 14.9% 5.4% 12.6% 9.9% 11.2% 20.0% % of total GM 11.5% 7.1% 7.8% 1.0% 5.0% 3.3% 2.9% 7.1% Total 94 105 93 168 122 141 128 168 Yoy(%) 23.5% 9.8% -1.5% 59.5% 31.6% -15.9% 4.8% 19.1% Blended GM 30.6% 30.4% 27.0% 41.7% 27.8% 28.2% 28.0% 27.8% Source: Company data, CIRL Page 3 of 8 Exhibit 3: Tianyun sales mix by segment (left) and by region (right) 100% Exhibit 1: 8.8 10.8 15.6 18.0 18.2 100% 21.8 8.8 10.8 90% 18.4 21.8 18.0 18.2 Pork 90% 18.4 21.8 21.8 80% 32.1 15.6 7.6 57.7 80% 15.6 32.1 18.3 92.1 7.6 57.7 products70% 70% 18.3 92.1 148.4 171.4 148.4 sold60% in 60% 50% 50% supermarket 40% 40% 64.5 97.7 122.0 64.5 97.7 122.0 30% 72.7 123.5 counters30% 72.7 123.5 103.4 103.4 20% 104.1 20% 104.1 109.0 10% 10% 0% 0% FY12A FY13A FY14A FY15A FY16A FY17A FY18A FY12A FY13A FY14A FY15A FY16A FY17A FY18A FY19A OEM Own Brand Trading of fresh fruit & others OEM Own Brand Trading of fresh fruit & others Source: Company data, CIRL Exhibit 4: Tianyun’s designed capacity would grow at 27% in FY18-FY21E Exhibit200,000 1: 179,000 Pork180,000 FY18-FY21E CAGR :21.4% products160,000 140,000 134,000 sold in 124,000 supermarket120,000 100,000 100,000 counters 84,000 84,000 80,000 64,000 60,000 53,000 40,000 31,758 32,489 20,000 0 FY12A FY13A FY14A FY15A FY16A FY17A FY18A FY19A FY20E FY21E Total Designed capacity (tons) Source: Company data, CIRL Page 4 of 8 Exhibit 5: Tianyun’s profitability vs.
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