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Tianyun International | 6836.HK Tianyun International | 6836.HK Rating BUY Initiate A hidden gem in F&B universe Target Price HKD 2.07 Current price HKD 1.22 Upside: 69.7% % FY18 result mixed, lower OEM GM and higher finance cost dragged on Company Updates the bottom line 16 April 2019 Tianyun’s FY18 result was mixed, with sales and EPS grew 26.2%/19.8% to RMB940.5mn/RMB147.5mn respectively. Tianyun’s sales was in-line with our estimates with own brand revenue came in 7.9% higher than our forecast, while Hayman Chiu OEM was ~11% below our estimates which we believe Tianyun continued to [email protected] place more focus on own brand development in FY18. Tianyun’s net profit (852) 2235 7677 attributable to shareholders was 7.8% below our estimates, we attributed the miss to lower OEM GM (due to RMB appreciation in 1H18 which affected their Trading data pricing, but GM improved in 2H18), and higher finance cost due to increased interest expense on bank borrowings (+221% to RMb6.8mn) and interest 52-Week Range (HK$) 1.48/1.03 expense on CB amounted to ~RMB5mn. Tianyun’s blended GM picked 60 bps 3 Mth Avg Daily Vol (m) 3.31 Yoy to 28.0%. No of Shares (m) 977.46 Market Cap (HK$m) 1,192.50 High margin own brand continues to drive growth, OEM maintain a Major Shareholders (%) Sichuan Dev. (27.0%) stable pace Yang Ziyuan (19.2%) Auditors PWC Tianyun’s own brand revenue soared 49.7% Yoy to RMB 482.3mn (51.3% of Result Due 1H19: Aug 2019 total revenue, vs 47.7% in 1H18) driven by partial ASP hike and lower material costs, hence driving GM up 220 bps to 30.8% which was in-line with our Company description estimates. Meanwhile, online sales grew 9.4% to RMB71.8mn (14.9% of own Established in January 2003 and listed in HKEx in July brand sales) as the Company’s investment in e-commerce platforms such as 2015, Tianyun sells their products (processed fruit in WeChat Business and TMall continue to play a part in own brand’s revenue China and to overseas on an OEM basis, current growth. Meanwhile, Tianyun has launched more new products (such as trans fat clients include renowned international brands such as free fruit snack) in 2H18 and target to further diversify product SKUs in FY19E Del Monte and Tesco (TSCO.LN) etc. Tianyun has been promoting its own brand products under including functional drinks. Tianyun currently has 210 distributors (vs. 204 in “Tiantong Food” (天同食品), “Bingo -My Times-”(繽果 1H18) and management would expect number of distributors w 時代) and “Guo Xiao Lan”(果小懶), in the PRC and overseas countries. Tianyun commenced sales of Tianyun’s OEM revenue maintained a stable growth in FY18 (+4.9% Yoy to Tiantong Food products in Hong Kong's supermarket RMB362.3, 39% of total revenue), while GM picked up 100bps HoH in 2H18 chains in 2015. By December 2018, Tianyun currently thanks to weakened RMB which allowed Tianyun to have a better pricing vs. has 210 distributors 1H18. As Tianyun’s overseas sales only accounted for ~8% of total revenue in FY18 (vs. 10% in 1H18), together with their diverse clientele worldwide including Price chart Europe, Canada, Australia and New Zealand, we believe the current client HK$ 1.6 portfolio would support Tianyun’s OEM sales grow at a stable pace in 1.4 FY19-FY21W, while we continue to believe the US-China trade dispute would 1.2 have minimal impact on Tianyun’s sales. 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.4 Set up JV with Sichuan Development to explore new business 0.2 opportunities, continue to seek for M&As 0.0 19 17 18 16 17 18 17 18 16 16 17 18 19 - - - - - - - - - - - - - Jul Jul Jul Oct Oct Oct Apr Apr Apr Jan Jan Jan Apr After SDIH becoming Tianyun’s single largest shareholder (27%) in end 2018, Tianyun announced in Feb 2019 that Tianyun and SDIH will set up a JV with Sources: Bloomberg, CIRL initial investment at RMB 200mn (70/30 spilt) in Sichuan Province to collaborate in developing a supply chain for processed agricultural and food products, and a base for supply of raw materials that complies with international standards. The JV would focus on business such as fruit and vegetable international trade, grading, canning and processing. The JV would also involve in the production of fruit and vegetable ice-cream, functional beverage. Page 1 of 10 . According to the circular released in mid-March, the RMB200mn would be allocated to i) ~RMB35mn for land acquisition, ii) RMB51.6mn for the purchase of production machineries, iii) RMB109mn for the construction of production plant and the remaining would be for general working capital. Meanwhile, Tianyun would continue to identify M&A and investment opportunities including placing their eye sights both tropical and sub-tropical fruit processing companies, and renowned brands in Asia etc. Hubei plant to further ramp up in FY19E Tianyun completed the acquisition of Yichang Tiantong (YT, a processed fruit company in Hubei) on Jan 30, 2018 and it is still in ramping up stage (FY18: estimated to be ~16k tons/year). Tianyun aims to introduce more fruit types from subtropical region and develop new fruit products for both its OEM customers and own brand. With current production capacity at ~100k tons/ year and expects to increase to ~140k tons/year in FY19E through production optimization in Shandong plant (target designed capacity at ~110k tons/ year) and further ramp up of Hubei plant (target designed capacity at ~30k tons/year). Tianyun expects total designed capacity would reach ~205k tons by FY21E, driven by full operation of production workshop No. 5 and No. 6, as well as the initial contribution from Sichuan plant’s operation from FY20E. We still believe Tianyun’s ability to take new orders from both existing and new clients. Undemanding FY19E 5.3x PE, increased own brand contribution continue to favour re-rating We fine-tuned Tianyun’s FY19E/20E EPS by -4.7%/-2.0% to reflect lower GM forecasts with new product sales not taken into account, we also introduce FY21E estimates. We expect Tianyun’s revenue and adjusted EPS to grow at 17.8%/23.0% CAGR in FY18-FY21E driven by increasing contribution from current own brand and stable OEM business, and the counter is trading at FY19E/20E 5.3x/4.3x PE (~73%/55% discount to weighted average of HK, A-share listed and international peers) still looks attractive to us. As own brand already took up 51.3%/56.4% of FY18 sales and GM, that further affirms our view that Tianyun’s own brand business is growing on the right track and continues to deserve a re-rating. With solid track record since listing and healthy financial position, we initiate BUY on Tianyun and value its TP at HK$2.07 based on 9.0x weighted average FY19E PE (~55% discount to peers’ 20.1x weighted average PE). We identify the following upside catalysts for Tianyun: i) Successful ramp up of Hubei plant, ii) Well-received market response of new own-brand product, iii) Better than expected sales from functional drinks and iv) News flow on SIDH and Tianyun JV Page 2 of 10 Exhibit 1: We fine-tuned Tianyun’s FY19E-20E/ EPS and introduce FY21E forecasts Exhibit 1:FY19 (old) FY19 (new) Diff FY20 (old) FY20(new) Diff FY21E Yoy(%) RevenuePork 1,140 1,139 -0.1% 1,352 1,342 -0.8% 1,540 14.7% products GP 335 327 -2.5% 398 396 -0.5% 459 16.0% sold in GM 29.4% 28.7% -70bps 29.4% 29.5% 10bps 29.8% 10bps supermarke t counters Net Profit 205 195 -4.7% 244 239 -2.1% 276 15.6% -4.7% -2.0% 15.6% EPS 0.209 0.199 0.248 0.244 0.281 Year to Dec (RMB mn) FY16A FY17A FY18A FY19E FY20E FY21E Segment Revene OEM 382 345 362 380 399 419 Own Brand 188 322 482 658 838 1,010 Trading of fresh fruit & others 83 78 96 101 105 111 Group 654 746 941 1,139 1,342 1,540 Segment Revenue Growth OEM 2.8% -9.7% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% Own Brand 87.3% 71.4% 49.7% 36.5% 27.3% 20.5% Trading of fresh fruit & others 2.5% -6.0% 22.6% 4.9% 4.3% 5.6% Group 18.0% 14.1% 26.2% 21.1% 17.8% 14.7% GM 30.5% 27.4% 28.0% 28.7% 29.5% 29.8% Source: Company data, CIRL estimates Exhibit 2: Tianyun’s GM improved in 2H18 Revenue Breakdown (By Segment) YearExhibit to Dec (RMB 1: mn) 1H14 2H14 1H15 2H15 1H16 2H16 1H17 2H17 1H18 2H18 OEMPork 141 174 158 214 171 212 156 189 181.4 181 Yoy(%) - - 12.7% 23.1% 7.7% -0.9% -8.4% -10.8% 16.1% -4.2% products % of revenue 69.4% 70.8% 62.4% 71.3% 55.5% 61.2% 45.5% 47.0% 41.3% 36.1% Own Brand 17 33.1 49.8 50.5 90.1 97.8 138.7 183.4 209.5 272.8 sold in Yoy(%) - - 189.5% 52.6% 80.9% 93.7% 53.9% 87.5% 51.0% 48.7% supermarket % of revenue 8.5% 13.5% 19.6% 16.8% 29.3% 28.3% 40.4% 45.6% 47.7% 54.4% Trading of fresh fruit & others 45 39 46 36 47 36 48 30 48.4 48 counters Yoy(%) - - 1.8% -7.5% 3.1% 1.7% 3.0% -17.6% 0.2% 58.9% % of revenue 22.1% 15.7% 17.9% 11.9% 15.2% 10.5% 14.1% 7.4% 11.0% 9.5% Total 202 245 254 300 308 346 343 402 439 501 Yoy(%) - - 25.3% 22.3% 21.2% 15.3% 11.6% 16.3% 28.0% 24.6% Gross Margin Breakdown (By Segment) Year to Dec (RMB mn) 1H14 2H14 1H15 2H15 1H16 2H16 1H17 2H17 1H18 2H18 OEM 39 59 51 72 55 68 47 56 51 53 Yoy(%) - 51.8% 30.2% 21.5% 9.7% -4.8% -14.4% -17.8% 8.0% -5.5% GM 27.6% 33.9% 31.9% 33.5% 32.5% 32.2% 30.3% 29.6% 28.2% 29.2% % of total GM 72.0% 72.5% 66.2% 74.7% 58.8% 64.7% 51.1% 33.4% 41.9% 37.5% Own Brand 5 11 15 17 28 30 38 110 65 84 Yoy(%) - 132.8% 214.9% 58.1% 89.2% 71.6% 36.4% 271.2% 69.6% -24.1% GM 27.3% 33.1% 29.7% 34.2% 31.1% 30.4% 27.5% 60.1% 30.9% 30.6% % of total GM 8.7% 13.5% 19.4% 18.0% 29.7% 28.2% 41.2% 65.7% 53.1% 59.2% Trading of fresh fruit & others 10 11 11 7 11 7 7 2 6 5 Yoy(%) - 9.9% 5.8% -38.8% -1.8% 6.1% -33.3% -78.4% -15.3% 193.8% GM 23.3% 29.6% 24.2% 19.6% 23.0% 20.4% 14.9% 5.4% 12.6% 9.9% % of total GM 19.3% 14.1% 14.4% 7.3% 11.5% 7.1% 7.8% 1.0% 5.0% 3.3% Total 54 81
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