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National Center for Atmospheric Research P.O National Center for Atmospheric Research P.O. Box 3000 Boulder, CO 80307 1986-11 For Release: July 9, 1986 Researchers Stalk Windshear During Rainstorms in Humid Southeast HUNTSVILLE— Four years ago today, Pan American World Airways Flight 759 crashed in a heavy rainstorm within a few seconds after liftoff from New Orleans International Airport, demolishing 15 houses in the suburb of Kenner, killing all 145 people on the plane8 on andthe ground. Cause: wind shear. Two years ago on May 31, 1984, United Airlines Flight 663, with 105 people on board, narrowly escaped disaster on takeoff from Denver's Stapleton International Airport when its underside scraped the tops of several 15-foot high antennas, one of which was later found jammed in the plane's tail section. Two 47-inch holes were ripped in the jetliner's belly. Cause: wind shear. Nearly one year ago, on August 2, 1985, Delta Airlines Flight 191 crashed on approach during a driving rainstorm about one-quarter mile from the Dallas-Fort Worth International Airport, killing 133 people. Cause: wind shear. To learn more about the meteorological conditions that give rise to such disasters, federal and university scientists conducting a large field project termed Microburst and Severe Thunderstorm (MIST), at Huntsville, Alabama. The study, which is funded by the National Science Foundation, will continue through July 31. The scientific team is led by Theodore Fujita, University of Chicago, who was the first person to predict that microburst wind shears exist and can cause airplanes to crash. "The purpose of MIST is to investigate the meteorological structure of microbursts from thunderstorms and their environment in a warm, moist region of the United States," says James Wilson, field project manager for the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR). Microbursts are brief, violent downdrafts that occur near the ground and can interfere with an aircraft's flight path. NCAR, a private nonprofit research laboratory sponsored by the National Science Foundation, has supplied three Doppler radars for scanning convective thunderstorm systems and a network of 50 solar-powered portable weather stations. Designed and developed by NCAR, the weather stations are spaced The National Center for Atmospheric Research is operated by the University Corporation for Atmospheric Research under the sponsorship of the National Science Foundation. Researchers Stalk Windshear 2 from one to three miles apart in a region covering northern Alabama and the adjoining portion of central Tennessee to gather ground-level meteorological information about microbursts. This information will be correlated with wind shear and precipitation data from the radar scans. In addition to Fujita, University of Chicago, other University participants in MIST include the Gregory Forbes, Pennsylvania State University; Roger Wakimoto, the University of California at Los Angeles, and V. N. Bringi, Colorado State University. Other support facilities include a four-engine Lockheed P-3 research aircraft, operated by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), which is gathering airborne measurements of meteorological and cloud physics conditions of the microburst environment. The MIST research project is part of a larger comprehensive program termed the Cooperative Huntsville Meteorological Experiment, which is sponsored by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) and the National Science Foundation. The NASA component of the field project, called the Satellite Precipitation and Cloud Experiment (SPACE), focuses on observations of the physical processes that leads to the formation of small convective systems during the pre-storm period. Two high-altitude aircraft, a NASA U-2 and an ER-2, have been making numerous flights at 60,000 feet altitude. A South Dakota School of Mines and Technology T-28 storm penetrating aircraft, outfitted with four-inch armor plating to prevent hail damage, is flying into storm clouds to gather information on liquid water content and hail size during storms. A companion experiment, FLOWS (for FAA-Lincoln Laboratories Operational Weather Studies) is focusing on the development and testing of automatic computer detection of wind shear using Doppler weather radars. The National Center for Atmospheric Research is managed by the University Corporation for Atmospheric Research, a consortium of 55 universities with graduate programs in the atmospheric sciences or related fields. For further information, please contact: Joan Vandiver Frisch, Manager, Media Relations National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) P.O. Box 3000, Boulder, Colorado 80307 (303) 497-8721 NOTE: See attached background information and wind shear accident statistics NCAR Background Sheet on Microbursts, Wind Shear— July 1986 Definitions: Wind Shear- A situation in which the wind changes its speed and/or direction over a small distance. When an airplane flies through a wind change of this kind, especially when at low altitude, the pilot must adjust for it quickly to maintain course and altitude. Usually a wind shear poses little danger. But should it occur over a distance as short as about 1 to 3 kilometers, a pilot may have only a matter of 30 seconds or less to recover safely from its effects. It is in connection with convective storms that the particular type of wind shear known as "microburst" occurs. Microburst- A relatively simple form of disturbance in atmospheric flow, characterized by a strong downdraft associated with a thunderstorm and sometimes with a summertime cumulus cloud small enough to produce no tell-tale lightning or heavy rain. The downdraft usually has a visible rain shaft associated with it. When and where the downdraft reaches the earth's surface, it spreads out horizontally, much like a stream of water from a kitchen tap striking the bottom of the sink. Sometimes the rain shaft evaporates before reaching the ground, leaving the downdraft invisible. But regions of the sky where microbursts may lie hidden are something else to reckon with. They typically look benign. The potentially lethal low-altitude wind shear of a microburst may be packaged in a harmless-looking rain shaft, or perhaps in the rain-free air below cloud base with no visible clues to warn of its presence. Sometimes there are tell-tale signs of the presence of a microburst that pilots can be trained to recognize. One of these is the sight of localized blowing dust near the ground (termed a gust front). But, too often, microbursts can also occur in the heavy rain of a thunderstorm where they are obscured from view. This, it turned out, was the case of the microburst that brought down Pan Am Flight 759 in Kenner, Louisiana, on July 9, 1982. Accidents In 1982, the National Academy of Sciences re-examined plane crash reports over an 18-year period and estimated that microbursts may have accounted for 28 airplane accidents involving 491 deaths and 206 injuries between 1964 and 1982. Since then, the only major airline crash in the United States that has involved wind shear was the August 2, 1985, Delta Airlines crash at Dallas. 10 Worst Aircraft Accidents InvolvingShear,1975-1985 Wind Rank Date Plane Location Dead/Injured 1 . 7/9/82 Pan Am B-727 New Orleans 154 kil led,9 injured 2 . 8/2/85 Delta L1011 Dallas/Fort Worth133 killed 3. 6/24/75 Eastern B-727 New York (Kennedy)112 killed,12 injured 4. 1/30/74 Pan Am B-707 Pago Pago, Samoakilled 96 5 injured 5. 6/23/76 A1legheny DC-9 Philadelphi a 87 injured 6 . 3/1/64 Paradise L-1049 Lake Tahoe, N.Y.k i11 85ed 7. 7/23/73 Ozark FM-227B St. Louis 38 ki11ed, 6 injured 8 . 11/27/73 Delta DC-9 Chatanooga, Tenn. 42 injured 9. 12/17/73 Iberia DC-10 Boston 16 injured 1 0 . 8/7/75 Continental B-727Denver 15 injured SOURCE: National Center for Atmospheric Research NCAR Background Information on Microbursts, Wind Shear - Page 2 The National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) in Boulder, Colorado, has been involved in two major field projects to study the microburst phenomena within the past four years. In the summer of 1982, the Joint Airport Weather Studies (JAWS) Project, directed by James Wilson and John McCarthy of NCAR in collaboration with Theodore Fujita, University of Chicago, was conducted at Denver's Stapleton International Airport. Two years later, in the summer of 1984, the FAA wanted NCAR to provide operational protection for Stapleton Airport in a clearly and recently demonstrated high microburst risk environment. In addition, the objectives of NCAR were to test a number of very short term weather prediction, detection and warning concepts utilizing results from the JAWS analysis, and to determine whether products developed from these concepts were operationally effective. This was known as the CLAWS (Classify, Locate, Avoid Wind Shear) project at Denver, Colorado. Field Research Results- The results of both of these programs have provided further insight into the airflow characteristics of microbursts, as well as new understanding of aircraft performance in microbursts, and have pointed to a need for adequate detection and warning of the event in the context of aviation safety. JAWS Project Results- Microbursts are common in Denver. Approximately 160 microbursts occurred over the 1,600 square kilometer research network in 90 days of operation. This averages 1.75 microbursts per day. Furthermore, NCAR scientists Wilson and McCarthy estimated that 20 aircraft are likely to encounter microbursts at Stapleton Airport below 500 feet at ground level in a typical summer. Such encounters should be considered serious and life-threatening to the passengers and crew of these aircraft. Based on statistics gleaned from approximately 75 microbursts detected by Doppler radar during the JAWS Project, the following description of microburst characteristics and behavior was determined: Typical horizontal dimension: 1 (.6to to 3 kilometers1.9 miles). Microburst lifetime: 5 to 15 minutes, with the period of severe wind shear from 2 to 4 minutes.
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