WINTER 2005 l~~--lVOL. 14, NO. 2

on Aidines..3*= ......

@#$< A A Step Toward Early PGBased Training IThat Reduces Rbk: The Effis of Practicing

I THE JOURNAL OF AVJATJONIAEROSPACE EDUCATION & RESEARCH

JOURNAL

OF

AVIATIONIAEROSPACE

EDUCATION AND RESEARCH

Winter 2005 Volume 14 Number 2 The Journal of Aviation/Aerospace Education and Research (JAAER) Winter 2005, Volume 14, Number 2 Copyright @ 2005 Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University 1 st Printing FEBRUARY 2005

Indexed in: Library of Congress, ISSN 1065-1 136 Aviation Tradescan

All correspondence and inquiries should be directed to: The Journal of Aviation/Aerospace Education and Research Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University Aviation Building, Room 102A 600 S. Clyde Morris Blvd. Daytona Beach, FL 321 14-3900 USA Telephone 38612266855 FAX 38612264895

Winter 2005 Volume 14 Number 2 Editorial Staff of the Journal of Aviation/Aerospace Education and Research William A. Kohlruss, Editor Deborah L. Burke, Assistant Editor Tim Brady, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University Thomas Comolly, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University James Schultz, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University

Editorial Board Brent D. Bowen University of Nebraska Thomas Q. Carney Purdue University Gerald W. Cook Spirit Airlines Gerald Fairbairn Daniel Webster College Jackie Luedtke Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University Chuck Moren Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University David A. NewMyer Southern Illinois University Marvin Smith Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University Ross Telfer Instructional Research and ~eveib~mentPty, LTD. Phillip S. Woodruff Federal Aviation Administration Headquarters

Additional Reviewers Greg Aaron United Parcel Service Dee Andrews Air Force Research Laboratory Deak Arch Ohio University Shawn Arena Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University Joe Clark Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University Ronald Clark Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University Atef Ghobrial Georgia State University Thomas Hagovsky Purdue University Mark Hewitt Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University Philip Ikomi Prairie View A & M University Kenneth J. Kovack Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University1 University of Maryland Roger D. Lee Salt Lake City Community College Gary Northam Parks College of Engineering and Aviation- St. Louis University Sherry Parshley Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University- William Rantz Western Michigan University Bruce A. Rothwell Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University Michaela Schaaf University of Nebraska Mark Sherman Ohio University Marian Schultz University of West Florida Guy M. Smith Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University Alan Stolzer Parks College of Engineering & Aviation- St. Louis University Michael E. Thorn Globalink Consulting Brison Torbert Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University Dale R. Wilson Central Washington University

Graphics Design: Browning Press, DeBary, FL Published three times annually (Fall, Winter, Spring) at Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University, 600 S. Clyde Morris Blvd., Daytona Beach, FL 321 14-3900

THE JOURNAL OF A VL4 TION/AEROSPACE EDUCATION AND RESEARCH

Winter 2005 Volume 14, Number 2

r TABLE OF CONTENTS

The Editor's Forum William A. Kohlruss ...... 7

Forum: Application of Low Speed Wind Tunnels in Teaching Basic Aerodynamics RandolphReynolds ...... 9 Fourm: Airline Fuel Hedging: An Ovewiew of Hedging Solutions Available to Airlines C. Lester Westbmks ...... 19

An Approach to Determine the Need for Expanding Small Airports: A Case Study Jefiey A. Johnson ......

Low-Level Wind Shear and its Impact on Airlines Wayne L. Goldig ...... 35

A Step Toward Early PC-Based Training that Reduces Risk: The Eflects of Practicing an "Instrument Referenced" Skill Pattern on "Visually Referenced" Performance of Beginning Flight Students Ryan Olson and John Austin ......

JAAER, Winter 2005 Page 5 EDITORIAL FOCUS

The Journal of Aviation/Aerospace Education and Research (JAAER) is a scholarly publication for educators and researchers as well as for professionals in the aviation and aerospace industry. The focus is how the educational process is influenced by various segments ofthe aviation and aerospace community and how education affects the industry. Although the basic focus is toward colleges and universities, manuscripts concerning secondary and elementary education are encouraged. The Journal is interested in a wide range of scholarly submissions concerning aviatiodaerospace curriculum development andlor innovative methods of instruction (for anylall levels of education), significant research relating to aviatiodaerospace education, to industry research, and to industry and education partnerships. The Journal welcomes submissions reflecting the latest industry and academic thought concerning currenfissues of interest to JAAER readers, and is interested in well-researched and documented stories concerning aviation history, both in the past and in the making. A ref& publication, manuscripts are blind-reviewed by members of the editorial board as well as by a limited number of professionals in that field. From time to time a non-refereed article may be included in a Forum section.

AUTHOR'S GUIDELINES

Prwaration of Manuscri~tsThe most current edition of the Publications Manual of the American Psychological Association (APA) is used as the style guide for submissions. However, authors are instructed to include all tables in the body of the manuscript.

JAAER does not accept multiple submissions. (If pending acceptance elsewhere do not submit to us.) Cl Submit five copies of the manuscript using standard, white, bond paper. Cl Double space the text. Use wide margins (1.5"-2") on both sides and top and bottom. Donumberthe pages

-Title The title of the manuscript should be clearly indicative of its subject and of the author's intention, and should not be unnecessarily long or convoluted. Documentation Manuscriptsare to conform to APA reference documentation. Text reference citations and reference list entries must be identical. Autobiogra~hvOn a separate sheet of paper, include a brief autobiography stating your qualifications for writing this article. If multiple authors, give a brief autobiography for each author. Publication Policy With your initial manuscript submission JAAER requires a full statement that this manuscript has not been previously published elsewhere, is not submitted and pending acceptance elsewhere, and will not be submitted for publication elsewhere in its present form.

If you have questions about submitting an article or subscribing to the Journal, please call (386) 226-6855 or visit our website at: http://www.erau.edulre~hljaaef/home~l

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Page 6 JAAER, Winter 2005 The Editor 's Forum

Editor's Forum

Welcome to the winter rendition of the Editor's Forum in which 1will attempt to inspire dialog via the Forum of the "Journal of Aviation and Aerospace/ Education and Research" (JAAER).

As we begin 2005, the aviation industry continues to progress much as the year before, some great news and some bad news. Many of the major air carriers continue to struggle to make a profit. As the dynamics of our industry continue to evolve we see differing efforts to address these challenges.

In one of our forum articles the author, Professor Les Westbrooks, discusses how some air carriers are addressing the issue. With limited ability to raise revenues, air carriers are searching for ways to reduce costs. Professor Westbrooks does a magnificent job in exploring how some air carriers are attempting to reduce costs and deal with the varying price of fuel by "Fuel Hedging".

Professor Westbrooks provides a detailed look at the pros and cons of this financial practice. With differing methods, air carriers hope to gain a financial advantage on supplying themselves with the lowest cost fuel available. I think you will find this article very interesting and informative. This information can be used in real practice and or in the educational realm, to provide business students with strategies that will help them and their employers succeed in the future.

In our other forum article we have another useful paper that helps in the educational arena. Professor Randolph Reynolds provides an excellent argument on the use of low speed wind tunnels for undergraduate stirdents. Professor Reynolds describes the construction and use ofthese devices along with the various apparatus that provides the feedback data for aerodynamic experiments.

The article contains a detailed procedure for using the devices in the classroom environment. Whether the devices are used in group projects or individual studies, Professor Reynolds concludes the experiments are not only accurate but the learning experiences of the students are very rewarding. For undergraduate students to have an opportunity to have hands on learning is an educational tool that will impact the learning for a long period of time.

Join me in enjoying the reading of this issue's forum articles. I am confident that you will find these educational and rewarding. Feel free to provide feedback in your own written dialog by contributing to the forum of the "Journal on Aviation and Aerospace/ Education and Research".

Sincerely William Kohlruss Editor

JAAER, Winter 2005 Page 7

Low Speed Wind Tunnels

FORUM

APPLICATION OF LOW SPEED WIND TUNNELS IN TEACHING BASIC AERODYNAMICS

Randolph S. Reynolds

1 ABSTRACT Undergraduate programs that include one or more courses on basic aerodynamics, including those that are introductory to undergraduate engineering programs, can benefit from the use of low speed wind tunnels. At ERAU's Prescott Campus two low speed wind tunnels have been used to give Aeronautical Science and beginning Aerospace Engineering students hands on experiences use of these tunnels in determining the lift curve slopes for various airfoils.

The objectives of these lab experiences as listed in the course syllabus are: Objectives: The student is expected to familiarize himherself with: Fundamental wind tunnel testing techniques. The use of an open return wind tunnel to measure the static pressure acting on an airfoil. The variation in the static pressure on the surface of an airfoil at various angles of attack. The use of surface tufts to assist in airflow visualization. Objectives: Using the data taken in the experiment, the student is also required to: Plot the pressure pattern on the top and bottom of an airfoil at four different angles of attack. Calculate the lift coefficients for each of these angles of attack. .Plot the coefficient of lift against the angle of attack measurements.

This paper describes a specific experiment given to undergraduate aeronautical science students. In this lab all the learning objectives can be met by using small groups of students and providing them with detailed instructions. This is one of the most popular portions of the course on basic aerodynamics.

DESCRIPTION OF WIND TUNNELS record the pressure data fiom a manometer. These There are two wind tunnels which are available to manometers provide an accurate display of the static the undergraduate in Aeronautical Science. Both are open pressures on the upper and lower surfaces of any airfoil circuit low speed tunnels. The smaller of the two has a section that we have set up. (See Appendix 1) capability of producing 100 knots velocity in a 12 inch by There are two additional wind tunnels in the lab. 12 inch by 24 in test section. The larger tunnel has a test There is a blow down supersonic tunnel with a 3" x 6" test section of 24" X 24" with an extension. The latter is rigged section that can attain Mach 4. There is a closed circuit low so that data can be recorded electronically and presented speed tunnel and the test section is 42" x 48" and has been under the lab view program. In the case of the Aeronautical equipped with a sting type mount. Science student's part of the lab work is to observe and

JAAER, Winter 2005 Page 9 Low Speed Wind Tunnels

The complete apparatus for this lab is listed below: Ao~atatus

bsolute pressure gauge easures ambient pressure. The scale is calibrated to read in inches of mercury

Measures ambient temperature. The scale is calibrated to read in OF.

Pitot-static tube

Bank manometer with 50 (or 20)

12" span, 4" chord1 24" span, 6" chord; symmetric section (no camber) and 12% (0.48 or 1.68 in) maximum thickness. Tufts are attached on the upper A 44 12 airfoil section surface of the airfoil for flow visualization on the section. There are seven or nine pressure ports on the upper surface of the airfoil. The location of those ports are listed in Table 2.

Page 10 JAAER, Winter 2005 Low Speed Wind Tunnels

PROCEDURES surface were subtracted fiom the lower surface ports The instructions for Part I that covers the lab work readings and multiplied by the distance between the ports and data "reduction" along with the instructions for the Part and averaged over the four inch chord to approximate the I1 individual report that covers the analysis are issued to the following relationship: student. Each student group, 3-4 students per group, is issued a data package, see attachment 1. There are several tasks that the groups must accomplish in the 20-30 minutes that they have on the 12 inch tunnel. After one group which sums the upper and lower pressures over the chord finishes with the 12" data collection they move to the 24 per unit span. N is the total force normal to the surface. The inch tunnel and demonstrate for them selves three or four conversion to coefficients of pressure is the static pressure parameters such as stagnation point, flow separation and re- minus the measured pressure at each station divided by the attachment, and the difference in the calibhtion of the dynamic pressure. This relationship is: manometer gages. The small 44 12 (or 00 12) airfoil that is placed into the 12 inch test section is tufted for flow visualization. The lab is not equipped with a hctioning smoke generator and and likewise for the lower pressures. The static pressure was flow visualization is of paramount importance in the basic measured from the pitot static probe in the tunnel and was aerodynamic course. There some limitations to this set up. fiee of disturbances until very high alphas, those At very high angles of attack the airflow into the small test approaching 20 degrees. The dynamic pressure, q, was taken section would be so altered that accurate measurements of bman inclined manometer fed off the same pitot static pressure distribution were hindered and the tunnel would probe. The inclined manometer made setting of the wind experience vibrations fiom the turbulent air hittingthe upper tunnel speeds easier to accomplish. Almost all experiments and lower walls. The best Reynolds numbers that could be run in this configuration were targeted for 3 inches of water achieved were in the range of 198,000 to 220,000 so that the on the inclined manometer. lift curves produced tended to flatten out just before the It was a simple matter of taking the direct readings stall. for static pressure and the pressure at each station or port, n In spite of these limitations this set up was ideal for in the equation, and writing the data sheets so that the letting students experiment with the lift pattern and the stall student could step by step calculate by hand the C , . patterns on the wing and it led to more indepth learning The average Aeronautical Science undergraduate does not about the nature of creating lift on wings than hours of have the computational skills to solve the equation for the lecture alone could have accomplished. coefficient of normal force: The procedure for each class was to record the manometer readings fiom fourteen ports, seven on the upper surface and seven ports on the lower surface. The advantage of using the smaller 4 inch chord wing section in the 12 inch f?om equation (1) and (2) above. Therefore an average of tunnel was that these ports were aligned where as the longer, all the "blocks" of pressure between the ports is taken. 6 inch chord 4412 wing section in the larger test section had This method of handling the pressure measurements is offset upper and lower ports even though there were seven remarkable accurate. It is explained to the students that this more built into the model. process has been used for nearly a hundred years. Each group was to take the readiings fiom the In addition to the pressure patterns and the computation of manometers that were in tenths of feet of Miriam oil and the average coefficient of lift for each angle of attack, the convert the readings fiom each port on the wing into a group calculates the velocity in the wind tunnel and the coefficient of pressure normal to the surf&ce of the wing. Reynolds number Ob). They were also to keep control of the dynamic pressure in INDIVIDUAL PROJECT the tunnel and once set for each angle of attack to record fiom an inclined manometer the pressure in inches of water. The next step for the students is to plot the CL= curve for This would be checked against tbe difference between the the data obtained. Since each group only takes data for 4 to static and total pressures measured fiom a small 'pitot' tube 5 angles of attack (the lab period is limited) so all data is mounted in the test section. The readings fiom the upper compiled by the instructor, placed on a spreadsheet and

JAAER, Winter 2005 Low Speed Wind Tunnels

returned to the individual students to complete. The student (2). Differences in stall angles of attack between then must take all the C, for each of the pairs, upper the 4" wing section and the 6" wing section. and lower, of stations and calculate the corrected data for the average coefficient of the normal force, then adjust it for the F. How would you judge the scientific accuracy of working angle of attack to produce an average lift coefficient. He with this wind tunnel set up and what might help to improve , then uses the excel program to plot the CLa curve the plot of the data into the C1 vs a curve? representing the wing. The instructor proviaes on this RESULTS spreadsheet any angles of attack that the class did not have In almost all cases the classes have had excellent time to do. Because the 4412 airfoil is asymmetric, that is results and the consistency of the data and the plots over the zero lift angle of attack is about a negative 4 degrees, the fourteen classes presented with this project have been angles of attack are set in one degree increments fiom 4 worthy of the engineering students. As a matter of degrees to +16 degrees and the instructdr supplies about five motivation data plots fiom engineering student lab reports more data points From that angle of attack to 30 degrees. If using the same airfoil are given to the students so that they the dynamic pressure is maintained around 3 inches of water can see the similarities. this results in a good representation of the NACA plots. The The success of this wind tunnel project stems From stall angle of attack shows to be the same as the NACA plot the simple and reliable low speed wind tunnel set-ups that and the zero lift alpha is usually within a degree of that this campus has available. In addition, this project is not produced by the NACA. The variances that occur have compounded by attempting to measure the drag on the normally been due to problems with accurate readings in the surface of the airfoil. In the small test section this is not manometers, usually one port, and often this is due to possible to do but it is an expectation that it can be restrictions in the manometer tubes or connections. accomplished using the small sting and strain gauges The student is then required to compare the class available for use in the 24 inch tunnel. The difficulty is that CLa curve to the NACA curve and to a similar curve the test model would have to be altered and as of this date found m their textbook. They are supposed to answer the there are no plans to pursue that as a requirement for the following questions as part of the learning process: Aeronautical Science program. In part this is due to the lack of wind tunnel time available and the demand by the senior A. What is the limitation with measuring the pressures Aerospace Engineering students for wind tunnel time on between the ports on the 4 inch 44 12 airfoil as we did? their senior projects. CONCLUSION B. What Reynolds numbers would you think would be The use of a wind tunnel project for undergraduate, required to have the CL, you got look like the NACA non-engineering, aviation students has been very successful. plots? Explain your answer. The students participate in the "discovery" phase of the production of lift and as this topic is thirty percent of the C. Where are the major differences in your (class) course content is provides them with a solid foundation for C ,,a curve where the plotted points were not aligned and continued learning in the courses that follow. Student why were there large excursions in the plots? opinionaires tend to support the notion that this laboratory time, usually four class periods, is well worth the D. Address in your report the following: experience. (1). The effect of a boundary layer in the test There is a secondary feature to laboratory work that section. helps in the classroom. The teams are formed so that slower (2). Turbulence or other effects hmall the holes learning students are mixed in with the better students. This (penetrations) in the test section. helps generate a little competition to work as a team (3). Location of the pitot static probe in the test member and forces learning. section.' Some of the Individual Part I1 reports are down well enough to be used as references for other students. The E. What did you learn fiom the 24" x 24" wind tunnel work? total effort taxes not only the students understanding of Explain the following: aerodynamics but of his organizational and writing skills..) (1). Location of stagnation point.

' Spring 2004 edition

JAAER, Winter 2005 Randolph S. Reynolds is currently on the faculty of the Prescott Campus of Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University where he teaches basic aerodynamics and aircraft performance. He holds a Master of Science in Aerospace Engineering ffom the University of Arizona and a Bachelor of Science in Engineering Sciences fiom the United States Air Force Academy. Mr. &eynolds received a fellowship fiom NASA in 1993 that he applied to graduate studies in optics and spectroscopy. He has extensive experience as a USAF pilot primarily in fighter aircraft. He completed a tour in fighter-bombers (F-105s) over North Vietnam and later flew as an F-105 and F-4 Instructor Pilot. In 1988 he joined NASA at the Ames Research Center in California as an engineer and research pilot and finished his government career at NASA Dryden Flight Research Center in 1999. He retired fiom the Air Force after 30 years of commissioned service in 1994. Mr. Reynolds has been active in many organizations and is currently participating yith Prescott Air Fair Corporation in their annual air show held in Prescott each October.

JAAER, Winter 2005 Page 13 Low Speed Wind Tunnels

REFERENCES

Hurt, H.H., "Aerodynamics for Naval Aviators; NAVWEPS 00-80T-80"; Naval Air Systems Command, 1960.

Pope, Alan and Harper, John; "Low-Speed Wind Tunnel Testing"; John Wiley and Sons Inc., New York 1966.

Page 14 JAAER, Winter 2005 Low Speed Wind Tunnels

APPENDIX 1

Photographs:

4412 Airfoil in 12"xlY test section

Low Speed Wind Tunnel: 12" X 12"

JAAER, Winter 2005 Page 15 Low Speed Wind Tunnels

6 inch 4412 airfoil in 24" x 24" test section

Inlet and manometer tube connections to 12" x 12"

Page 16 JAAER, Winter 2005 Low Speed Wind Tunnels

Typical Manometer bank

JAAER, Winter 2005 Page 17 Low Speed Wind Tunnels

APPENDIX 2

Lift curve slope fiom Spring 2004 Class: This plot is from the raw data and is not smoothed. Error bars would indicate that the plot around 0" angle of attack is offset. The airfoil section was mounted and calibrated in the test section with zero angle of atlack one degree high. Therefore the zero lift angle of attack is closer to 4 degrees than shown on this plot. The q, actually took place at 13 degrees alpha. Students discuss these sorts of points in class.

-10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 Angk of Attack

Page 18 JAAER, Winter 2005 Airline Fuel Hedging

FORUM

AIRLINE FUEL HEDGING: AN OVERVIEW OF HEDGING SOLUTIONS A VAILABLE TO AIRLINES C. Lester Westbrooks

1 Over the past several years airlines have been struggling to cope with a barrage of challenging economic conditions and have been very creative in reducing cost. In an attempt to produce a profit for their shareholders airlines have slashed cost in many areas and have not willingly left any stone unturned looking for cost savings. There are two ways to make a profit however, either by lowering your cost or by raising your revenue. The revenue increase side of the airline profit equation has been limited by govenunent security taxes, unhealthy competitive practices, and the entrance additional of low cost carriers such as Jet Blue and Air Trans. Airlines have varying degrees of control over cost with fuel being most illusive.

Air travel has become a part of our national culture introduced frequent flier programs to provide fiequent and has been made affordable for the general public by business travelers with free travel to be used for personal airline deregulation. Deregulation unleashed the creative travel. Also, airlines, such as American, have tried other energies of many businessmen and women leading to a huge schemes attempting instill brand loyalty. Expanding the leg expansion in airline capacity commensurate with this room in their coach section, DVD players, and computer demand for air travel. Now, after years of affordable air power ports at passenger seats are just a few examples of travel, passengers are conditioned to first consider air travel attempts to attract loyal customers. Brand loyalty goes only when covering substantial distances. The entrance of low so far "because most airline customers value low price cost caniers (LCC) has provided the traveling public with above all other carrier selection factors" and "the carrier additional opportunities to fly. with the lowest cost has a powerful competitive advantage." From 1993 to 2003 the demand for air travel (Wells, 2004) increased by approximately 13.7 million passengers per year The most desirable way for airlines to improve peaking in the summer of 2001. September 11"' dealt the their bottom line is to increase their revenues. It would be airline industry a significant blow decreasing air travel logical that an increase in cost that is felt across the industry, demand to the lowest levels since 1993. With the perceived such as fuel, would be passed on to the consumer. Federal risk of terrorist attack either contained or dealt with by the Express has done this with the recent increases in fuel cost traveling public, air travel is on track to recover to pre- by adding a fuel surcharge to their delivery prices. This idea September 1 1' levels by the end of 2004. (Air Transport presumes, however, you are not in an industry with eleven Association of America, 2004) competitors operating in bankruptcy since September 1 I* -- In an oligopolistic industry, such as the airline five have filled bankruptcy in 2004 alone. (Air Transport industry, it is difticult to distinguish one company's product Association of America, 2004) It is difficult to add a fiom a competitors. By definition, players in an oligopolistic surcharge when your product is mostly indistinguishable industry compete in non price competition. This is where the from you competitors, your bankrupt competitor does not airline industry departs fiom the characteristic of an have to pay their debts, and is often so cash strapped they oligopoly. If a passenger desires to travel from Miami to price their product to make payroll. New York he would have many options to choose from and In airline pricing any increased that is not followed many different prices. After all, an airline seat is an airline by a quorum of other industry participants is destine to be seat to most travelers. To develop brand loyalty, airlines rescinded. The Bureau of Transportation Statistics

JAAER, Winter 2005 Page 19 Airline Fuel Hedging developed the national Aii Travel Price Index in 1995 to by 83%, figure 2. (Bureau of Transportation Statistics, 2004) track the cost of consumer cost of air travel. As seen in With fbel consuming 15 to 20 percent of airline operating figure 1, in the past nine years the cost to consumers has expenses profits are being minimized. increased only 3.58% while the cost ofjet fuel has increased

Figure 1 Bureau of Transportation Statistics

-

JAAER, Winter 2005 Airline Fuel Hedging

A~rlineFuel Cost and Consumption ( 1977 - 2W4) -Domestic Semss -Iniemalional S~MCC~ W Lars per Galbn $1 .sD

21.12

$0.75

SD.W I

m.00 I I 1 I I I I I I I I I 1 1977 1979 1981 14~3rws 1987 14~01491 1493 1495 1497 1499 2r~12~3

Figure 2 Bureau of Transportation Statistics

JAAER Winter 2005 Page 2 1 Airline Fuel Hedging

As you can see fiom figures 1 & 2, the cost of jet saved us $17 1 million in jet fuel cost during 2003. We are fuel for airline is cyclical and subject to substantial also well protected in 2004 and 2005 with over 80 and 70 variations while the revenue received fiom passengers is percent, respectively, of our anticipated fuel requirements essentially flat. hedged with prices capped at approximately $24 per barrel Fuel prices are subject to a number of social and of crude oil." (Southwest Airlines, 2003) This hedging is political influences which cause fluctuations in the cost of expected to save Southwest Airlines $240 million in 2004. the commodity. Political events such as wars - even the (Southwest Airlines, 2004) rumors of wars -- will likely lead to an increase in the cost The question now becomes, should my company of fuel. Government legislation has effects on the price ofjet hedge or not. As we have already seen, not all companies fuel such as increasing taxes to cover additional airline agree on the necessity of hedging. The argument could be security cost. Limits in refining capacity can affect the cost made that rising oil price affect all competitors evenly so ofjet fuel and any interruption in thatrefining capacity, such fares will be raised across the industry. We have seen as an explosion, will affect the cost of all refined product. however, that the airline industry does not always compete Summer travel by consumers has a competing influence on on a rational basis, especially when air caniers are in the cost of jet fuel causing refineries to shift production to distress. Investors would be thrilled to see an additional more gasoline based products. In the winter, the demand for $149 million and $171 million in the corporate coffers as home heating oil - very similar to jet fuel - increases and American and Southwest saw in 2003 on the other hand, jet fuel cost rise. These are but a few of the triggers that can hedging is not always successful and if market forecast are cause a spike in jet fuel prices. Some of them cannot be incorrect, may lead to higher losses. planned-for such as a refinery shutdowns however, some of Hedging for an airline is similar to purchasing an them, such as seasonal demand changes, can be. insurance policy to protect against a rise in jet fuel prices. This type of volatility lends itselfto hedging. When By investing in futures in the commodities markets airlines prices are down financial managers can purchase hedging are able to lock in a price today that will be paid in the instruments to limit exposure in case of a fuel spike. When future for a comrnodity.(Southwest Airlines, 2004) If prices are stable, manager can attempt to limit their upside nothing else, hedging jet fuel gives the corporation the exposure and even when prices are up managers can protect ability to plan and price their product based on a stable price themselves from unforeseeable circumstances. of the commodity. Investors value stable returns on their investments Hedging is an investment and like all investments and it has been shown that hedging jet fuel price exposure there are risks associated with that investment. Hedging has a positive effect on an airlines stock values with little requires an airline to forecast the future direction of a value being added for the extent of hedging. In fact, "The commodity and make an informed decision. This decision evidence suggests hedgers are 12.33% - 13.68% more has to be correlated with the company leadership's aversion valuable as a result of initiation of measurable jet fie1 to risk. If your company is conservative in their financial hedging." (Carter, et al., 2004, p. 29) practices then no hedging or limited hedging might be an Not all airline executives feel compelled to hedge acceptable risk. On the other hand, if a company is their fuel Rod Eddington, CEO of British Airways stated "a aggressive and willing to risk some capital, a hedging lot is said about hedging strategy, most of it is well wide of program would be appropriate for this company. If your the mark. I don't think any sensible airline believes that by hedging forecast ultimately proves incorrect, your company hedging it saves on fuel bills." and "When you hedge all you will realize gains less than the cost of the program or losses. do is bet against the experts in the oil market and pay the Once the decision has been made to hedge financial middleman. You can run fiom high fuel prices briefly managers must decide not only how much to hedge but what through hedging but, you can't run for very long." (AFX tools to use. There are a number of hedging strategies News) On the other side of the fuel coin American Airlines available to fmancial managers however, most use three tells investors in their 2003 annual report "During 2003, basic tools -- forwards, futures, and options - or some 2002, and 2001, the company's fuel hedging program combination of them. Jet fuel trades in very limited reduced the company's fuel expense by approximately $149 quantities on the commodities market so investors use other million, $4 million, and $29 million." (American Airlines, commodities which closely follow the movement ofjet fuel 2003) Likewise Southwest airlines, known for not following prices such as home heating oil or crude oil. This is the conventional wisdom of the airline industry, reports sometimes referred to as cross-hedging. Cross hedging can "Southwest also has a successful hedging program, which involve purchasing oil futures two to three years out then

Page 22 JAAER, Winter 2005 Airline Fuel Hedging swapping them for home heating oil one to two years out fuel cost are options contracts. Option contracts come in two and fmally swapping them for jet fuel. (Defense Business types, calls and puts. When an airline purchases a call it is Board, 2004) for a specified commodity, at a price, to be delivered on a Forward is the term used for a contract agreed upon date, it obtain the right but not the obligation to purchase the by two or more parties to exchange an underlying asset at a underlying commodity. For example, an airline financial contracted price, amount, and date. Investment banks are manager might purchase 1,000,000 gallons of home heating iisually the institutions entering into agreement with airlines. oil through call options, with a February expiration date, for Once the agreement is made no cash changes hands. The a strike price of $070 per gallon. At any point prior to the forward is settled on the contacted day. In the simplest case expiration date, the option can be exercised and the the spot price on the commodity is equal to the contracted underlying commodity delivered. Included in the $0.70 price on the contracted day. All would be equal and no cash strike price is a premium charged by the seller for the would change hands. If however, the spot price of the seller's risk equating to length of time until expiration - the commodity had risen above the contracted price the banker current spot market price might be $0.65 leaving a $0.05 would pay the airline the difference between the contracted time premium. Generally, the greater the amount of time price and the spot market price. The only cash that would until expiration the higher the premium will be. If the cost exchange hands would be the difference. Conversely, if the of home heating oil rose over the next months to $0.75 per spot price is lower than the contacted price the airline would gallon it would be beneficial to the call option buyer to have to pay the banker the difference. (Rao, 1999) exercise the option and make a $0.05 profit. A call option Forwards are useful to an airline to limit the upside has the effect of capping the amount the airline will have to exposure but .they do have limits. If the price of the pay for the commodity. commodity falls the airline has no limit to the downside Conversely, in a declining market an airline exposure and can loose large sums of money. Since financial manager could sell a put for the same 1,000,000 forwards are conmctual agreements between individual gallons of home heating oil with a February expiration date, parties the airline is exposed to the risk of the banker not for a strike price of $0.70 per gallon. In doing this the seller performing on the contract. Airlines use forecasting to plan of the put is offering the purchaser of the put the right but on the amount of jet fuel the will require. If there is a not the obligation to put the 1,000,000 in the airline's hands significant increase or decrease in air travel the airline could and expect $0.70 per gallon for it. Like the call, there is a require more or less fuel than contracted for. In either case premium built into the put commensurate with the length of the airline would experience losses for contracted fuel not time until expiration. The airline would only purchase a put used or unrealized profits for excess fuel not contracted in if they expected the price of home heating oil to remain the forward. Forwards are useful for planning by providing above the strike price. If the price fell to spot market price a company with a stable fuel price. of $0.65 per gallon the airline would loose $0.10 per gallon. Futures contracts are another investment tool "A forward contract from the buyer's viewpoint airlines can use to hedge their fuel expenses. "They too are can be viewed as a transaction in which the buyer pays for essentially agreements to buy / sell an asset at a future time. a call option by selling a put option at the same exercise Further, they may also be settled either by giving /taking price chosen such that both options have the same value." physical delivery or by exchanging cash."(Rao, 1999) (Rao, 1999) This would effectively lock in the purchase Unlike forwards, futures are highly standardized contracts price of the commodity with the security benefits of the exchanged on regulated commodity exchanges. This exchange markets and without the before mentioned risk of provides the airline with assurance that the contract will be the forward contract. performed on at expiration. Also, unlike forwards, futures People of the 2 1" century have demonstrated their require cash to exchange hands upon purchase. The demand for air travel and we have discussed the challenges exchange will require the parties to post a percentage of the facing the airline financial managers in competing in an contract into a margin account. Essentially, the rest of the oligopolistic market that competes on price. Increasingly, contract price is borrowed from the clearinghouse. the competition has demonstrated unhealthy characteristics Borrowing requires credit. Airlines who are strapped for caused by financial desperation. Increases in cost that cash will have poor credit a rating and be unable to hedge transcend individual companies are not directly transferable their fuel using futures contracts. to the consumers as would be expected in logical markets. The final basic tool used by airlines to hedge their Because of the volatility of the price ofjet fuel and the often

JAAER, Winter 2005 Page 23 Airline Fuel Hedging unpredictable nature of price increase, airline financial option contracts in varying combinations to mitigate the managers are enticed to use hedging as a risk management fmancial risk to their companies. .+ tool to insulate their companies from price increases. Managers use forward contracts, futures contracts, and

C. Lester Westbrooks is currently an assistant professor in the Aeronautical Science Department at Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University in Daytona Beach, FL where he teaches electronic flight navigation, airline operations, and international flight procedures. He is a member of the Phi Kappa Phi honor society, the University Aviation Association, Allied Pilots Association, National Business Aircraft Association, and the Aircraft Owners and Pilots Association. Professor Westbrooks served as a liqe Flight Engineer for American Airlines on a B-727 and was selected to provide operational experience to new Flight Engineers under a "buddy7' program. In 1993 he trained as First Officer on the B-727 and flew in the United States, Central and South America. In 1994 he trained as a F-100 First Oficer and flew domestic operations out of Nashville Tennessee. In 1996 Les returned to flying B-727 International for a year when he went back to flying F- 100 domestic operation which included Latin and Canadian operations. Professor Westbrooks served in the Tennessee Air National Guard as a tactically qualified Navigator on a C- 130A until 1987 when he was selected to cross train to pilot and flew C-130A and C-130H 11. Noteworthy of the many specialized training courses Les has attended are the ANG Mishap Prevention School at Norton AFB, Los Angles, CA and Squadron Oficers School in residence at Maxwell AFB, Montgomery, AL

Page 24 JAAER, Winter 2005 Airline Fuel Hedging

REFERENCES

AFX News. (May 17,2004). Ba says fuel requirements 45% hedged in current year. AFXnews.com.

Air Transport Association of America. (2004). Annual operations, traffic, and capacity. Retrieved December 14, from http://www.airlines.org/econ/d.aspx?nid=1032

Air Transport Association of America. (2004). U.S. Airline bankruptcies. Retrieved December 15, 2004, http://www.airlines.orglecon/files/~~~e~033.htm

American Airlines. (2003). Amr corporation annual report. DFW Airport, TX: American Airlines.

Bureau of Transportation Statistics. (2004). National-level atpi series. Retrieved December 15, 2004, from http://www.bts.gov/xmVatpi/src/datadisp.xmI?t=l

Defense Business Board. (2004). Recommendations related to the practical use of fuel hedging for the department of defense. Retrieved December 14,2004, fiom http://www.dod.miW dbb/pdf/FuelHedging-03-2004.pdf.

Rao, V. K. (1999). Fuel price risk management. In G. F. K. Butler, M.R.(Ed.), Handbook of airlinefinance (First ed., pp. 41 1- 422). New York: McGraw-Hill.

Southwest Aiiliries. (2003). Southwest airlines company 2003 annual report. Dallas, TXSouthwest Airlines

Southwest Airlines. (2004). Hedge your jets. The Southwest Wing, 2(5), 3. Retrieved December 12, 2004, from http://www.southwest.com/swatakeofT/sou~407.pdf

Wells, A. T., & Wensveen J.G. (2004). Air transportation: A managementperspective (5 ed.). Belmont, CA: Thomson Learning.

JAAER, Winter 2005 Page 25

Expanding Small Airports

AN APPROACH TO DETERMmTE THE NEED FOR EXPANDING SMALL AIRPORTS.. A CASE STUDY

Jeffrey A. Johnson

ABSTRACT 1 Airports play an important role in the economic vitality of communities and surrounding areas. In developing and expanding an airport, there are many different variables that must be taken into account. One fundamental aspect of airport expansion is the need to hangar aircraft. The purpose of this study was to investigate constituent.interest in building at least 10 new T-hangars and expanding the Blair Municipal Airport's (K46) services located in rural Blair, Nebraska (Washington County). A descriptive study questionnaire developed specifically for this study was used to collect the data from 1,232 certificated pilots in five surrounding counties of the Blair Municipal Airport. The study found that interest in developing the Blair Municipal Airport exists. Most of the interest conveyed through the survey questionnaires was from pilots who fly primarily for recreation; however, pilots who fly equal amounts of time for recreation and business trips in addition to pilots flying for business only were a significant reportable part of this study. Major complaints reported from the survey questionnaires include the lack of adequate facilities on the airport itself, substandard hangars, and no availability of maintenance and line services.

INTRODUCTION AND BACKGROUND developing and expanding an airport that is often perceived Developing and expanding an airport and its associated as useless or non-applicable to the ordinary citizen. Granted, infrastructure is often an arduous, time consuming task. The the primary benefits of an airport is the time saved and cost capital required for airport development comes at a avoided by travelers who use an airport over the next best significant cost and forecasted benefits of such an available alternative (Federal Aviation Administration, investment are often the subject of spirited debates. For 1992) although there are many other indirect benefits to the airports that have scheduled airline service, daily revenue non flying public as well. According to Dempsey, Goetz, flow is often predictable (Kaps, NewMyer, Lanrnan & and Szyliowitcz (as cited in Pmther, 1998), public support Sigler, 2001) that often provides the potential to justify must include citizen education and participation. Convincing further airport expansion. Some airport authorities have a the public (especially the non-flying public) that developing preference for larger aircraft that can cany more passengers and expanding an airport can benefit their local communities over smaller, general aviation aircraft (Kovach, 1998). is perhaps the most difficult challenge for most airport Conversely, airports with no scheduled airline service and authority board members to overcome. consequently, no daily predictable revenue flow, must often During the next six to twenty years as the City of Blair face insurmountable and even hostile challenges to grow and and southern Washington County, northern OmahalDouglas expand their existing facilities and services. County continue to grow and develop, a runway capable of In any type of airport development and expansion accommodating larger business aircraft will become forecasting program, it is imperative to research projected necessary (Coftinan Associates, Inc., 2000). In addition to social, environmental, economic and technical forecasts as growth, the Blair Municipal Airport Authority has it pertains to the airport master plan (Wells, 1996) and for recognized two very important variables that have become airports with no scheduled airline services, the challenges quite favorable in developing the airport: geography and are even greater. Often times, the non flying public will marketability. The Blair Municipal Airport, located less than demand justification of tax dollar expenditures for ten statute miles from Interstate 680 (Omaha's northwest

JAAER, Winter 2005 Page 27 Expanding Small Airports side), is geographically well positioned to capitalize on Research Instrument overflow general aviation traffic from Omaha's Eppley The instrument used to collect the data was a survey Airport. (Over eight airlines and freight operators conduct questionnaire developed specifically for this study. The operations out of Eppley making it the busiest civilian survey was distributed by employees of Blair city hall to airport in Nebraska.) The Millard Airport's single runway, 1,232 certificated pilots via US mail. The survey was located in southwest Omaha, is less than 4,000 feet and has comprised of two sections. The frrst section incorporated a no room for expansion. The Blair Municipal Airport is series of questions posed to the pilots concerning the need primarily surrounded by farmland and has room to grow. for hangar space, aircraft type requiring hangar space, Unfortunately, the airport's current condition offers less primary type of flying activity, and willingness to buildllease promise than its future potential. Presently, the Blair hangar space at the Blair Municipal Airport. In response to Municipal Airport faces some major obstacles in providing the survey questions, respondents were directed to choose high capacity reliever services. The single hard surfaced fiom a series of statements ranging from yedno responses to narrow runway is less than 3,600 feet, the existing hangars short answer selection. The second section of the survey are dilapidated to the point that some local pilots have instrument incorporated a demographic section. Responses argued in favor of bulldozing them (despite the fact there is left blank by the respondents were indicated by N/R (No a waiting list to rent a hangar), and there is no availability of Report) while responses checked as not applicable to a maintenance and line services. Airline and charter services respondent were indicated as N/A. In evaluating the data are also non-existent. Primary users of the airport include an presented in the following tables, rounding errors should be active glider club, pilots engaged in limited flight training, taken into consideration. and other pilots who fly for recreational purposes. DATA ANALYSIS METHODOLOGY Demographics Subjects Data from the survey questionnaireswere compiled The population for this study included 1,232 certificated from the software program, Minitab (1998). The most significant demographic characteristics included gender, pilots residing in the following five counties surrounding the age, occupation, highest FAA certificate held, avekge tip Blair Municipal Airport: Washington (57 pilots), Burt (18 length, and years of experience as a pilot. Of the 261 pilots), Harrison (25 pilots), Dodge (82 pilots), and Douglas respondents, 237 (90.8%) are male and 5 1 (4 1.ON) are 5 1 (1 050 pilots). A descriptive type survey questionnaire was years of age or older. developed by the Blair Municipal Airport Authority DATA CROSS TABULATIONS members and the city administrator to solicit opinions from The data from the study were incorporated into a series area pilots. A response rate of 467 surveys (37.9%) was of cross tabulations for ease of comparison. Some of the achieved; however, due to the fact that several surveys were research data illustrated in this section have been cross not completed, inaccurately completed, or illegible, only 26 1 tabulated with demographic information in an attempt to surveys (2 1.2%) were classified as usable for this study. It provide a robust descriptive profile of the respondents. Rounding errors in the tables should be considered. should be noted that not all the data collected from the 261 In Table 1, an overwhelming majority of the surveys were classified as usable. Two key assumptions respondents are male @=237, 90.8%) in comparison to made about the subjects during the study included: (a) The female respondents @= 10,3.9%). Nearly one-half of all the pilots had reasonable knowledge of the facilities at the Blair respondents @=121, 46.4%) are males flying for Municipal Airport; and (b) the pilots responded to the recreational purposes although collectively, 106 males questionnaire in a sincere manner using their professional (40.6%) fly for business or combined recreationalhusiness and experiential expertise. purposes.

Page 28 JAAER, Winter 2005 Erpanding Small Airports

Table 1

Primary Type of Flying Activity vs. Gender

Recreation Business RecfBus NIA Total -n % -n % -n % -n % -n % Male 12 l(46.4) 52(19.9) 54(20.7) lO(3.8) 237(90.8) Female 7(2.7) 2(.8) O(O.0) l(0.4) 1 O(3.9) N/A 6(2.3) 2(0.8) 2(0.8) 4(1.5) 14(5.3)

Total 134(5 1.4) 56(2 1.5) 56(2 1.5) 1 S(5.8) 261(100.0)

In Table 2, the highest category flown was in the 25- respondents (6.2%)who reported even amounts of flying for 100 mile range @=77, 31.5%) by pilots for recreation, recreation and business have flown an average of 25-100 business, or acombination of recreation and business flights. nautical miles. Most of the respondents who fly for business Almost one-fifth b=43, 17.8%) of the respondents fly an as their primary type of flying activity are concentrated in average one-way trip of 25- 100 miles for recreation. Sixteen the 25-100 nautical mile range @=I 3, 5.4%).

Table 2

*Primary Type of Flying Activity vs. Length of Flight from Respondents' Home Base Airport

-- - Recreation Business Total -n % -n % -n %

Total 124(5 1.3) 54(22.5) 49(20.0) lS(6.1) 242(100.0)

*Length of flight is defined as one-way in nautical miles (NM).

JAAER, Winter 2005 Page 29 Expanding Small Airports

The data in Table 3 illustrate that almost one-half respondents hangaring aircraft at an airport other than the (Q=129, 49.4%) of all the respondents report they are Blair Municipal Airport fly for recreational purposes. A hangaring their aircraft at an airport other than the Blair large response rate (Q=77,29.5%) was categorized as N/A. Municipal Airport. Over one-quarter @=74,28.4%) of the

Table 3

*Primary Type of Flying Activity vs. Present Hangar Tenants at Other Airports

- -- Recreation Business Rec/Bus N/ A Total

-n % I g % -n % -n % -n % Yes 74(28.4) 24(9.2) 25(9.6) 6(2.3) 129(49.4) No 26(10.0) 16(6.1) lO(3.8) 3(1.2) S(21.1) N/ A 34(13.0) 16(6.1) 21(8.1) 6(2.3) 77(29.5)

Total 134(51.4) 56(2 1.4) 56(2 1.5) 15(5.8) 161(100.0)

- *Are you presently hangaring your aircraft at an airport other than the Blair Municipal Airport?

Table 4 presents an overview of the primary type of respondents (30.7%) who are interested in hangaring their flight activity and hangar consideration needs. Over one- aircraft at the Blair Municipal Airport. Approximately one- third of the respondents (Q=38, 14.6%) state they would half of the respondents fly for recreational purposes while consider hangaring their aircraft at the Blair Municipal the remainder fly for business or an equal combination of Airport. An additional 42 more respondents (16.1%) report recreation and business. Almost one-fifth ofthe respondents they would consider moving their aircraft to Blair only if (1~=49,18.8%) who fly for recreational purposes responded new hangars are built. Collectively, that accounts for 80 NIA while only 16 (6.0%) fly for business.

Table 4

*Primary Type of Flying Activity vs. Blair Municipal Airport (K46)Hangar Consideration Needs

Recreation Business Rec/Bus N/A Total -n % -n % . -n% g % -n % Yes 20(7.7) 7(2.7) lO(3.8) l(0.4) 38(14.6) Yes** 22(8.4) 1l(4.2) g(3.1) l(0.4) 42(16.1) Have K46 hangar 6(2.3) 4(1.5) 4(1.5) 1(0.4) 15(5.8) No 37(14.2) 1g(6.9) 22(8.4) 7(2.7) 84(32.2) N/A 49(18.8) 16(6.0) 12(4.6) 5(1.9) 82(3 1.3)

Total 134(51.4) 56(2 1.3) 56(2 1.4) 15(5.8) 261(100.0)

*Would you consider hangaring your aircraft at the Blair Municipal Airport? **Yes, but only if new hangars are built.

Page 30 JAAER, Winter 2005 Expanding Small Airports

In Table 5, there is a relatively even distribution of respondents (26.8%). Collectively, almost one-half of the respondents who need hangar space at the Blair Municipal respondents @=46,17.6%) who need hangar space are in the Airport ranging fiom 2-12 years. This accounts for 70 Recreation category.

Table 5

*Primary Type of Flying Activity vs. Blair Municipal Airport (K46) Hangar Time Consideration Needs

Recreation Business RecIBus N/A Total -n % -n % I1 % n % -n % up to 1 yr. O(0.0) l(0.4) 2(0.8) O(0.0) 3(1.1) 2-5 years 16(6.1) 4(1.5) 2(0.8) O(O.0) 22(8.4) 6-10 years 13(5.0) 2(0.8) 3(1.2) O(O.0) 1g(6.9) 11-15 years 7(2.7) 6(2.3) 5(1.9) O(O.0) 18(6.9) 16-20 years 6(2.3) 2(0.8) 4(1.5) O(O.0) 12(4.6) >20 years 4(1.5) O(O.0) 5(1.9) O(O.0) 9(3.5) N/A M(33.7) 41(15.7) 35(13.4) 15(5.8) 179(68.6)

Total 134(51.3) 56(2 1.5) 56(21.5) 15(5.8) 261(100.0)

-- *If you already have (or would like to have) hangar space at the Blair Municipal Airport, how long do you continually need (or would like to have) hangar space at the Blair Municipal Airport?

Table 6 represents a comparison between primary type they need hangar space for single engine aircraft followed of flight activity and the respondent's aircraft type which by 16 (6.2%) needing hangar space for multi engine aircraft. requires hangar space. Over one-half b=156, 59.8%) are Aside from NIA categories, the largest category is the NIA respondents. Over three-fourths b=79,30.4%) reported recreational user flying single engine aircraft b=4 I, 15.8%).

Table 6

*Primary Type of Flying Activity vs. Aircraft Type

Recreation Business RecIBus NIA Total -n % -n % -n % -n % n %

Ultralight 3(1.2) O(0.0) 3(1.2) O(0.0) 6(2.4) Glider 2(0.8) O(O.0) O(O.0) O(O.0) 2(0.8) Single Engine 4 l(15.8) 13(5.0) 21(8.1) 4(1.5) 79(30.4) Multi-Engine 7(2.7) 6(2.3) 3(1.2) o(o.0) 16(6.2) Rotorcraft l(0.4) o(o.0) o(o.0) o(o.0) l(0.4) Jet o(o.0) 1 (0.4) o(o.0) o(o.0) l(0.4) NIA gO(30.5) 36(13.6) 29(11.1) 1 l(4.2) 156(59.8)

Total 134(51.4) 56(2 1.3) 56(2 1.5) 15(5.8) 261(100.0)

*If you need hangar space at the Blair Municipal Airport, what type of aircraft would you like to hangar at the airport?

JAAER, Winter 2005 Page 3 1 Expanding Small Airports

Table 7 indicates the willingness to rent a new T-hangar for a total of 51 respondents (19.6%) who arelmight be for a rate of approximately $140 per month at the Blair willing to rent a new hangar. However, most of the Municipal Airport. Only 19 respondents (7.3%) indicate respondents b=1 10,42.2%) report they are unwilling to rent they would be willing to rent a new hangar. An additional 32 a new hangar at $140 per month. The data do not suggest (12.3%) indicated they might be willing to rent a new any rationale as to why some respondents are unwilling. hangar. The yes responses and the maybe responses account

Table 7

*Primary Type of Flying Activity vs. Willingness to Rent a Hangar at the Blair Municipal Airport

Recreation Business Rec/Bus NIA Total -n % tg% g % -n % g %

Yes 4(1.5) 9(3.5) 4(1.5) 2(0.8) 19(7.3) No 55(21.1) 28(10.7) 20(7.7) 7(2.7) 11 O(42.2) Maybe 23(8.9) 4(1.5) 5(1.9) O(O.0) 32(12.3) NIA 52(19.9) 15(5.8) 27(10.3) 6(2.3) 1OO(38.2)

- -- -- Total 134(5 1.4) 56(2 1.4) 56(2 1.4) 15(5.8) 261(100.0)

*I would be willing to rent a new T-hangar for approximately $140 per month at the Blair Municipal Airport.

The data in Table 8 is very similar to the data in Table 10 1 respondents (38.7%) indicate they would not be willing 7. Percentage wise, the willingness to build a new T-hangar to build a $22,000 hangar. Collectively, almost one-quarter for $22,000 at the Blair Municipal Airport is almost @=62,23.7%) indicate they arelmight be willing to build a identical. In Table 7, 7.3% of the respondents were willing hangar. to rent vs. 7.2% are willing to build a hangar. Conversely,

Table 8

*Primary Type of Flying Activity vs. Willingness to Build a $22,000 Hangar

Recreation Business Rec/Bus N/ A Total -n % -n % -n % -n % -n %

Yes 8(3.1) 5(1.9) 5(1.9) l(0.4) 19(7.2) No 47(18.1) 24(9.2) 27(10.3) 3(1.2) lOl(38.7) Maybe 24(9.2) 7(2.7) 9(3.5) 3(1.2) 43(16.5) NIA 55(21.1) 20(7.7) 15(5.8) 8(3.1) 98(37.6)

Total 134(51.5) 56(2 1.5) 56(21.5) 15(5.9) 261(100.0)

- - *I would be willing to pay $22,000 to build a new T-hangar at the Blair Municipal Airport for a 15 year usage at no additional costs (equates to approximately $123/month for I5 years).

Page 32 JAAER, Winter 2005 Expanding Small Airports

CONCLUSIONS complain about airport noise, environmental, political, and The survey results for this study suggest that respondent economic considerations. opinion is generally favorable in developing an airport One reason that general aviation will continue to expand expansion plan for the Blair Municipal Airport. Most of the is the efficient use of time (Wells, 1999) and the results of interest in developing the Blair Municipal Airport is from this study suggest that area businesses who rely on general pilots who primarily fly for recreation although 56 aviation would consider relocating their aircraft to the Blair ~espondents@=26 1,2 1.3%) reported their primary type of Municipal Airport provided that airport expansion takes flying as business related. Of the 26 1 respondents surveyed, place. Many airports with no airline service face an uphill 129 (49.4%) presently hangar their aircraft at other airports battle to obtain funding for expansion and improvement than Blair. Currently, there are 15 respondents (5.8%) who while facing public scrutiny although it would appear that hangar their aircraft at the Blair Municipal Airport. With the Blair Municipal Airport has at least two strong variables respect to the type of aircraft that need hangar space, 79 in its arsenal. The two very distinct variables that have respondents @=I61, 30.4%) reported a need for single- proven to be very effective for the Blair Municipal Airport engine hangar space followed by 16 respondents (6.2%) who Authority to capitalize upon in developing the airport are need multi-engine hangar space. Despite the fact the largest geography and marketability. These two assets are response was NIA @=156, 59.8%) for hangaring type particularly strong and appear to strengthen the argument aircraft, it should be noted that 105 respondents (40.2%) that developing the Blair Municipal Airport has great have a need for hanger space. The results also indicated that promise because: (a) The airport, predominantly surrounded 42 respondents b261, 16.1%) would consider the Blair by farmland, is in close proximity to the Omaha Municipal airport for their hangar needs if new hangers were metropolitan area providing reliever services (geography); built. Presently, 15 respondents (5.8%) reported they already (b) the potential to provide additional services to Blair and have hanger space at the Blair Municipal Airport. Overall, other rural communities shows excellent promise based these findings seem to lend credence that demand for upon the growing population demographics; (marketability) developing the Blair Municipal Airport exists. and (c) the realization that an active airport expansion Although the results of this study indicate favorable program in this region of Nebraska can open new markets to response in developing an airport expansion plan for the other constituents who have not previously considered using Blair Municipal Airport, it should be noted the respondents the services at the Blair Municipal Airport (marketability). for this study were pilots who lived in relatively close In an era where general aviation airports are on the proximity to the airport. Over one-third of the respondents decline, the results of this study appear to be very b=38,14.6%) reported they would consider hangaring their encouraging for the Blair Municipal Airport. Although there aircraft at the Blair Municipal Airport which indicates a are no guarantees of success, the Blair Municipal Airport clear vested interest in an airport expansion plan. Other seems to be well positioned for growth and to meet the constituents such as the non-flying public who resided in the needs not only ofneighboring communities, but neighboring same five counties of the pilot respondents were not counties as well..) surveyed. External factors not addressed in the study that may impede an airport expansion plan include residents who

Jeffrey Johnson is an assistant professor in the Department of Aviation at St. Cloud State University. He has a Ph.D. in Higher Education Administration from Bowling Green State University, a Master of Aeronautical Science from Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University (Daytona Beach), and Bachelor of Science in Aeronautical Studies from University of North Dakota.

JAAER, Winter 2005 Page 33 Expanding Small Airports

REFERENCES Co&m Associates, Inc. (2000, August). Environmental assessment ~O~D~ODOS~~abort im~rovements at Blair munici~alabort. Kansas City, KS: Author.

Federal Aviation Administration. (1 992). Estimatin~the regional economic significance of aborts @OT/FAA/PP-92-6). Washington, DC: Author.

Kaps, R., NewMyer, D., Lanman, R., & Sigler, J. (2001). The need for airport hding. Collegiate Aviation Review. 19(1), 71-91.

Kovatch, K. (1998). Cornorate aviation management (2"d ed.). Dubuque, IA: Kendall-Hunt Company.

Minitab for Windows 12.2 [Computer Software]. (1998). State College, PA: Minitab, Inc.

Prather, C. (1998). Denver International Airport: Lessons learned. The Journal of Aviation/Aeros~aceEducation & Research -8(2), 15-2 1.

Wells, A. (1996). Abort ~lanning& management (3rded.). New York, NY: The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc.

Wells, A. (2000). Air trans~ortation:A management ~ersmctive(41h ed.). Belmont,CA: Wadsworth Publishing Company.

Page 34 JAAER, Winter 2005 Low-Level Windhear

LO W-LEVEL WINDSHEARAND ITS IMPACT ON AIRLINES

Wayne L. Golding

ABSTRACT The hazards posed by low-levei windshear are an important issue in commercial aviation. Extensive research into methods for coping with low-level windshear has been continuing for many years. This paper addresses the issues pertaining to low-level wind shear causes, impact on commercial aviation, and initiatives undertaken to prevent low- level windshear mishaps today and in the future.

INTRODUCTION What Is Low-Level Windshear? Normand "Rock" Sheeren heard jet engines Windshears are rapid changes in wind speed andlor screaming andknew the plane was in trouble. As the Boeing direction in either the horizontal or vertical direction. We 727 cartwheeled into the ground and burst into flames, he know that wind shears can cause significant turbulence. But heard people screaming, too. The crash, on July 9, 1982, low to the ground, windshears can be killers. Studies on killed all 146 people on Pan Am Flight 759 and eight more windshear accidents have shown that pilots will only have on the ground - two women in their 20s and six children. from five to 15 seconds of time to react, and react correctly, Jolted out of the air by a sudden, intense downdraft and to safely negotiate the hazards. The hazards are rapidly ferocious crosswinds, the 95-ton airplane cartwheeled changing headwind and tailwind, strong side gusts and through two blocks of the close-knit neighborhood near variable lift on the wings, all during a time when an aircraft New Orleans' international airport. Twenty years later, it is most vulnerable (Minor, 2000). remains the worst crash ever caused by wind shear. Thanks The causes of windshear are very well known. to better knowledge, training and equipment developed Convective weather with first gusts, downdrafts, partly in response to that crash, the record might stand microbursts, and gravity waves are the most significant (Mconnaughey, 2002). forms of windshear. Terrain features like mountains, gullies, Flight 759 hit the ground during a storm so intense or other topography cause wind flows to change over short that within a short distance, the sounds of the banging, distances. Man-made obstacles, like a large hangar beside slamming, splintering wood and tearing metal merged into the runway, create a changing wind pattern. Fronts and the booming thunder. John Lavarine, working at his storms can create vertical shearing in the atmosphere close insurance office five blocks away, didn't hear it. A phone to the ground. Windshear f?om each of these causes has call alerted Lavarine, a Jefferson Parish councilman who made an impact on some airplane in the last few decades represented that area on the Kenner City Council. He went (Minor, 2000). straight through rain so heavy that vision was drowned for What is a Microburst? blocks. All he could see was wreckage; all he could smell A microburst is windshear that is the result of cool was jet he]. The downpour probably kept the fire from air pouring from the bottom of a thunderstorm cloud and spreading over about 110 city blocks, he said. As it was, onto the airplane, like an inverted mushroom of air. As a eight homes were flattened, another seven too damaged to jet passes through the downdraft, it first encounters a strong repair. The 154 deaths made it the nation's third-worst crash headwind, which slows the plane's speed and gives it extra at that time. It remains the nation's worst accident caused by lift. But the head wind suddenly diminishes, followed by an windshear (Mconnaughey, 2002). equally strong tail wind, which causes the jet to lose lift and sink. If this occurs during landing or takeoff, when the

JAAER, Winter 2005 Page 35 Low-Level Windshear

airplane is only about 100 feet off the ground, a crash can precipitation-induced downdraft. Figure 1 illustrates the result (Rozas, 2002). microburst (Rauber, 2002). The downward motions are Microbursts can occur anywhere, normally from strengthened when air from outside the cloud is mixed with spring through fall in the United States-thunderstorm saturated air of the cloud. As the moist air descends through season. They occur most frequently between 1200 and 1800 the cloud and eventually below the cloud deck, evaporation hours local time, with maximum occurrence between 1500 of the water particles further cools the air and increases the and 1700. Observations have shown that about five percent downward motion. In addition, snow melts at lower of all thunderstorms are capable of producing a microburst. elevations, contributing to the cooling of the air and the Microbursts are typically only a few hundred to 3000 feet strength of the downdraft. Ifthe cloud bases are high enough across. As a microburst contacts the ground, it usually fans and the air beneath the cloud dry enough, rapid cooling out in a radial pattern, which can produce headwind to-- takes place, resulting in strong, downward-rushing air. tailwind speed differences greater titan 50 knots. Because of Because of the lack of abundant moisture, much of the their small size and rapidly changing wind conditions over precipitation evaporates before it reaches the ground (called very small distances, extreme wind shear conditions often virga). However, in the dry microburst, the air continues to exist. Most microburst winds intensifL just after ground rush downward, striking the ground at speeds approaching contact and typically dissipate in about 10 to 20 minutes 25 knots-in some cases, wind speeds may approach 100 (Lawyer, 200 1). knots! The only evidence that a microburst may be occurring is blowing dust on the ground beneath the cloud. Different Types of Microbursts Once the air reaches the ground, the wind spreads outward There are basically two types of microbursts--wet and radially and will often curl upward along its outer boundary. dry. The main distinguishing characteristic between the two lf the winds are strong enough, the air will curl upward and is the prevailing environment in which they are produced. back over the outward rushing air. An aircraft that Dry microbursts, as the name implies, develop in an encounters a headwind of 40 knots with a microburst may extremely dry environment in which moist convection is expect a total shear of 80 knots across the entire microburst just barely possible. They often occur from the front range and the direction may reverse 180 degrees across the of the Rocky Mountains to the Western Plateau region. The centerline of the microburst. Amazingly, the conditions just atmosphere is moist at high altitudes, but at lower altitudes described, from the initial downdraft to the fmal dissipation conditions are exceedingly dry. The process of a dry of the microburst, can happen within 10 minutes. microburst begins when the updrafts in a convective-type Unfortunately, with the speed at which microbursts occur, cloud can no longer support the weight of the ice and water pilots have little time to react once their aircraft encounters particles. As the particles begin to fall, they drag the air that fmt gust (Lawyer, 200 1). downward, causing a downdraft. This is the beginning of a

Page 36 JAAER, Winter 2005 Low-Level Windshear

02002 KendallIHunt Publishing

Figure 1. The Microburst Model

JAAER, Winter 2005 Page 37 Low-Level Windshear

Impact 01Low-Level Windshear on American Airlines crew decided to land despite two wind Commercial Aviation shear warnings given by air traffic controllers. The plane, Wind shear! Now that's a subject that we can all which was carrying 139 passengers and six crewmembers, look at again. It's been the number one weather killer in skidded off the runway, broke apart and caught fire. Eleven aviation. In the last twenty years, over 650 deaths took place people died, and 87 were injured. The airport did not have in commercial aviation alone, due to wind shears (Miner, a Doppler radar system, but the NTSB determined that ' 2000). U.S. commercial aviation deaths associated with although wind shear was a factor, pilot error caused the wind shear accidents have dropped as a result of training accident. Many airlines now mandate their pilots not land pilots to handle wind shear and the installation of the first or take off when a wind shear advisory is issued. Pilots operational Doppler radar in 1992. Commercial airline today will often delay a flight's takeoff to wait out wind deaths associated with wind shear are summarized in table shear, which usually lasts between five and 15 minutes, or

1(Rozas, 2002). 1 will circle the airport until the danger has passed (Rozas, But making the decision to take off or land in spite 2002). of a wind shear alert is left up to the pilot in command. That was the case in Little Rock, Ark., in June 1999, when an

Table 1. Summary of deaths associated with windshear -1 -1 Deaths

Page 38 JAAER, Winter 2005 Low-Level Windshear

PREVENTING LOW-LEVEL WINDSHEAR of the nation's 500 commercial airports employed the MISHAPS LLWAS devices. Most airfields still relied on simple wind Low-Level Windshear Alert Svstem(LLWAS) cones to measure wind direction or anemometers to measure Although pilots had for years described encounters wind speed. At the time of the Pan Am crash, New Orleans with sudden downdrafts and quickchanging head winds and International had LLWAS, the most current equipment tail winds during even light thunderstorms, the term wind available. But in its investigation of the crash, the National hear was not attributed to a major airplane crash until 1975. Transportation Safety Board determined that the LLWAS Even then, researchers were far fiom an understanding of its was not advanced enough to detect the microburst that true danger. That year, Eastern Airlines Flight 66 crashed brought the Pan Am flight down. "The probable cause of while landing during a thunderstorm at John F. Kennedy the accident was the airplane's encounter during the liftoff International Airport in New York, killing 112 people. The and initial climb phase of flight with a microburst-induced flight had taken off fiom New Orleans. ,Meteorologists wind shear, ... the effects of which the pilot would have had studying the crash determined that a previously unknown difficulty recognizing and reacting to in time," the NTSB phenomenon had pushed the Boeing 727 out of the sky. report said. "Contributing to the accident was the limited They named it wind shear. Still, scientists didn't know how capability of current ground-based, low-level wind shear to detect or avoid wind shear (Rozas, 2002). detection technology to provide definitive guidance for Afier the 1975 crash, the Federal Aviation controllers and pilots for use in avoiding low-level wind Administration began developing equipment to signal shear encounters." The Pan Am crash generated momentum changes in wind, the first of which was called Low-Level for an attack on the wind shear problem (Rozas, 2002). Wind Shear -Alert System, or LLWAS. The first The FAA turned to researchers with the National technological breakthrough in windshear sensing occurred Center for Atmospheric Research, which had been in 1976 with the Low Level Windshear Alerting System conducting wind shear experiments. "At that point, the (LLWAS). The LLWAS was installed at 110 FAA towered FAA jumped in (in) a major way," says Dr. John McCarthy, airports between 1977 and 1987(Meyer, 1999). This system one of the primary researchers on the project. He is now of anemometers is placed around the airport with a computer manager of science and technical development at the Naval comparing the wind speed and direction of all the Research Laboratory. Researchers tweaked the LLWAS, anemometers every second. When different values of adding more detectors and increasing the probability of direction or speed are sensed, the tower is notified detection of wind shear (Rozas, 2002). automatically for voice dissemination to aircrews. The fmt Today modem Vaisala's MIDAS IV LLWAS (low- generation of LLWAS had six sensors, but that was found level windshear alert system) allows air traffic control to be inadequate since microbursts slipped in-between the (ATC) personnel at airports to warn pilots when low-level wind gauges. Wind differences of 13 knots fiom one sensor windshear penetrates the runway corridors so that to another triggered an alert to air traffic controllers, who appropriate evasive action can be taken, improving safety then relayed the information to pilots in arrival and and operating efficiency. The ground-based system departure phases of flight. The next two generations simultaneously detects low-level windshear and microburst increased the number of sensors and their location. The events in the runway corridors and gives audio and visual latest version has up to sixteen wind sensors at the airports. alerts to ATC and other airport personnel. MIDAS IV Forty-one airports in the CONUS use this system including LLWAS constantly collects wind data fiom sensors placed Colorado Springs, Omaha, Shreveport, and other joint-use along the runway. A typical LLWAS sensor suite will fields (Miner, 2000). include a Vaisala Wind Transmitter, a Vaisala Ultrasonic But the system had flaws. It could not predict wind Wind Sensor, and also will include a central display unit shear, but merely told pilots when it was detected. It also (CDU) and workstation displays. Using the CDU, the had a high rate of false alarms, experts say. Few pilots were MIDAS IV LLWAS processes wind data using the Phase3 convinced that wind shear was something always to be windshear algorithm, developed for the FAA by the avoided. "I can remember back in the old days, the pilots National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR). If would just bore straight ahead and go through it," says windshear and microburst threshold values are exceeded, the Leonard Parmley, the New Orleans International Airport system generates alerts and warnings to workstations used tower control chief. "There was some talk in magazines and by air traffic controllers, weather obse~ers/forecastersand among the pilots about wind shear, but it wasn't something maintenance personnel. The MIDAS IV LLWAS gives ATC that kept the pilots fiom going through." In 1982, only 60 personnel enough advance warning to adjust patterns and

JAAER, Winter 2005 Page 39 Low-Level Windshear taxiing queues, estimates headwind loss or gain, accurately of real flight. Hit a devastating wind shear and you feel the determines where wind shear will be encountered and cuts series ofjolts and change in air speed as the computer calls down the probability of false alerts to under 10% (Vaisala's out "Wind shear! Wind shear!" If a landing gear collapses, MIDAS IV LLWAS, 2003). the cockpit drops. "The scenarios we use in the simulators Next Generation Radar (NEXRAD) represent 6 million possible combinations of events and Still, experts knew the aviation industry needed more conditions," said J.D. Whitlatch, vice president of pilot than just state-of-the-art weather sensors. They needed a tool standards and training for United Airlines. There is no way to predict the conditions that create wind shear. Researchers we could train flight crews for that many experiences in a turned to a weather observation system being used by the real airplane."(Williamson, 1998, p. 2) "The scenarios we National Weather Service since the 1970s called NEXRAD, show are not fictional; they actually happened somewhere," for Next Generation Radar. "We had a hunch that we could said Lew Kosich, a B777 fleet captain (Williamson, 1998, use that equipment to detect wind shear," McCarthy says. p. 2). For example, the microburst that downed a Delta The radar, renamed Terminal Doppler Weather Radar, and Airlines Lockheed L-101 1 in Dallas / Fort Worth in 1985 is often referred to simply as Doppler, reads an echo from dust among the scenarios. By practicing flying through the particles in storm clouds to determine the speed and simulated storm, pilots learn how to respond to conditions direction of wind. Scientists began testing it at Denver's that have claimed the lives of others. At koughly half the Stapleton International Airport and found they were able to price of a Boeing 737 jet, the simulators are "expensive to detect 98 percent of wind shears, McCarthy says. But it buy but cheaper than planes to operate. Still, an hour in a would be another decade before the system would be 777 simulator is far from cheap, roughly $1,200 deployed at major airports. Delays in the development and (Williamson, 1998). federal financing of the project, as well as hiccups in land After the Pan Am crash in 1982, the FAA studied ownership and questions in some communities about the how pilots were trained to handle wind shear. After the environmental impact of the radars, which must be placed at Dallas crash, the U.S. Department of Transportation least five miles from the airport, slowed the process. The awarded a $1.8 million contract to Boeing Co. to develop a first prototype Doppler system was tested in 1988 at the training program to help pilots cope with wind shear, and National Center for Atmospheric Research's facility in the FAA required all commercial airlines pilots to master the Denver. Later that year, the government awarded a $180 program. "Pilots are trained to look for and anticipate million contract to Raytheon Co. for the installation of 47 possible wind shear conditions, something that was unheard Doppler radars. The number was later changed to 46. The of before the Pan Am crash," says John Mazer, spokesman first operational Doppler was installed at the FAA Technical for the Air Line Pilots Association (Rozas, 2002, p. 5). Facility in Atlantic City, N.J., in 1992. New Orleans "We'd go back for training twice a year, and at the end of received the TDWR, as the system is known, in 1996. The the training we'll just practice wind shears over and over cost of the radars, about $8 million per airport, made them again," says Zander, a retired United Airlines pilot. "With too expensive to be placed at all airports, FAA officials said. the proper technique, most are survivable. Some arejust not. Roland Herwig, spokesman for the FAA, said cost-benefit I can tell you it was nice sometimes to be in a simulator analysis is used to determine which airports get TDWR. The that's bolted to the ground"(Rozas, 2002, p. 5). The decision analysis involves many variables, including airport location, to take off or land in spite of a wind shear alert is left up to weather environment, and number of landings and takeoffs the pilot. Many airlines now require that their pilots not land per year and the cost of the TDWR (Rozas, 2002). or take off when a wind shear advisory is issued. Pilots Training The Pilots today will often delay a flight's takeoff to wait out wind Every year, about 1 1,000 airline pilots hone their shear, which usually lasts between five and 15 minutes, or skills in 35 simulators that cost up to $17 million each and will circle the airport until the danger has passed (Rozas, represent the greatest collection of advanced airline training 2002). equipment in the world. Military pilots, including the crew Future Technology 6om the president's Air Force One, also practice at Denver's The FAA is focusing its future aviation technology virtual airport. The flight conditions are as varied as the on integrating the equipment airports and airlines already world's airports and weather. The simulators are exact use, in order to better predict not only wind shears but also replicas of every jet cockpit, with computerized images and all potentially dangerous weather. Weather accounted for 3 1 sounds that match what pilots will experience on the ground percent of the nation's airline carrier crashes between 1989 and in the air. Sophisticated hydraulics create the sensation and 1999, according to the NTSB (Rozas, 2002).

JAAER, Winter 2005 Low-Level Wind~hear

The Integrated Terminal Weather System is a Airlines Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) system that brings The FAA required airliners' radar to include together meteorological data from a wide variety of windshear alert systems by the end of 1995 (Mconnaughey, previously deployed sensors. The ITWS, available at eight 2002). American Airlines has selected Honeywell to provide airports, processes these data and provides highly distilled predictive windshear radar systems for installation on automated weather products to increase airport safety and selected current and future American Airlines aircrafl e%ciency. Primarily FAA personnel who control aircraft or (Coventry, 2001). plan traffic flow use the resulting weather information. To give pilots advance warning of windshear, 7 1 Secondarily, the information is used by airline dispatchers airlines around the world have installed AlliedSignal's RDR- and by meteorologists at the center weather service units. 4B windshear radar system in its 4,016 aircraft (Melyrnuka, The ITWS was developed at MITLincoln Laboratory and 1998). AlliedSignal's system is a predictive radar, which currently is in full-scale development ,by Raytheon. detects windshear up to five miles in front ofthe aircraft and MITILincoln Laboratory operates functional prototype warns flight crews before the aircraft enters a potentially ITWS systems at Orlando, Memphis, DallasIFort Worth, dangerous windshear event. The system gives flight crews and New York City, providing real-time weather support. 30 to 60 seconds of warning time before encountering The FAA plans to install a total of 34 ITWS systems during potentially damaging windshear. In contrast, most radar the next two years to service 45 major airports (Cole, 2000). systems are reactive systems that tell the pilot when the The ITWS uses the Terminal Doppler Weather Radar plane has encountered Adshear - the warning can be as (TDWR)and the latest version of the LLWAS working little as a few seconds. Here's how the system works: A together to provide automatic alerts to aircraft (Miner, Doppler radar antenna in the nose of the airplane sends out 2000). Examples of the products provided by the initial signals that measure the motion of raindrops moving toward deployment are microbust detections and predictions, gust and away from the aircraft. Those signals bounce back to a front detections and wind shifts (Cole, 2000). receiver in the plane, which interprets the data and displays The tower is still the primary means of the green, yellow and red weather patterns on a monitor in communicating windshear warnings at civilian airports. the cockpit. The monitor allows pilots to see the location Controllers have a display in the tower which shows the and size of hazardous windshear and storms (Lorek, 1994). windshear and microbust warnings for specific runways. THEBUREAUCRACYANDDELAYS The warnings are generated automatically. If there is a The FAA provides oversight for the largest, busiest limitation to these systems, it is that the tower controller is and most complex aviation system in the world. As part of the only source of the information for the pilot. Terminal its mission, the FAA and its staff of 49,000 operate and controllers do not have access to the information. For the maintain our nation's air traffic system, orchestrating the last three years, airlines have been using a VHF data-linking take-off, landing and routing of 93,000 aircraft a day. The program to have text and graphic information ofthe terminal FAA also regulates aviation safety and security, which area broadcast directly from the TDWR, and ITWS systems entails standard setting for, and oversight of, commercial to the flight deck. The textual description of the weather airlines, private aircraft, aircraft manufacturers and the air within 5 NM of the airport is automatically updated every traffic system (U.S. Newswire, 2000). minute. The radar can produce a graphic (using letters and Why does it sometimes take disaster or the passage numbers) every five minutes. Direct interface between the of years for the FAA to take significant action? It is sensors and the flight deck looks to be the future when it embedded in the conflicted nature of the FAA. Serving two comes to sensing windshear (Miner, 2000). masters, the agency not only is charged with numuing the The system is designed to give highly accurate aviation industry but also must ensure the safety of the forecasts of expected weather conditions for a 200-mile flying public. Whenever the FAA considers changes in radius, for up to 20 minutes into the future. The FAA plans safety and equipment regulations, the agency must balance to buy 37 such systems to cover the airports that have safety against the cost to airlines. According to records and Doppler and would install them between now and 2007, but interviews, the result can be delays in addressing safety those dates depend on congressional financing (Rozas, problems and more accidents related to them. Deadly delays 2002). have occurred in part because a law requires the FAA to justify the cost of implementing proposed safety measures by showing that enough lives will be saved (Brazil, 1994).

JAAER, Winter 2005 Low-Level Winakhear

Joe Cox, a scientist who directed the FAA's $4 successfbl as it has been. "We obviously can't say that million windshear project, said the equipment could have there won't be another wind-shear accident, but we've gotten been developed for use by 1982 at a cost of about W8 a whole lot better than we ever imagined, "McCarthy said million. He blamed the FAA's abandonment of the in- (Mco~aughey,2002 p. 2). Wind shear has continued to cockpit systems in part on resistance from the Air Transport cause dozens of accidents and incidents; it is mentioned in Association, an industry group representing major airlines an average of 25 National Transportation Safety Board (Boeing Co. to install windshear equipment in jetliners, reports a year from 1983 through 2001. But the vast 1986). majority were nonfatal. They also are mostly small, private A four-month Los Angeles Times review of planes (Mcomaughey, 2002). government documents revealed that in some cases years Many lives have been saved because of the have passed and lives have been lost before the FAA acted reduction, if not elimination, of potential airline crashes on safety problems, although the pgency had long been caused by dangerous wind shear conditions on takeoff and aware of the hazards (Brazil, 1994). landings. These saved lives are the result of training pilots CONCLUSION on the dangers of microbursts and the installation of Doppler The Pan Am Flight 759 on July9,1982 remains the radars and LLWAS at major airports across the United nation's worst accident caused by windshear, partly because States to warn pilots when microbursts are present. Just as it focused attention on the problem, said John McCarthy of important is the airlines predictive radar, which gives flight the Naval Research Laboratory in Monterey, California crews 30 to 60 seconds of warning time. In the future it is (Mconnaughey, 2002 p. 2). critical that pilot training programs continue and that there - The Federal Aviation Administration already was is a progressive oversight activity to monitor the studying windshear. The crash got everyone--government, performance of the TDWRs and the operational microburst business and science--working hard together to find ways to detection and forecast algorithms (Wilson, 200 1). avoid similar accidents, McCarthy said. "We thought we Congressional officials have suggested that the could decrease the number of windshear accidents by 60 nation's skies would be safer and more efficient if the day- percent," he said (Mcomaughey, 2002 p. 2). Instead, today air traffic control operations were taken away from windshear has downed only two airlines since then: the the FAA so it can focus on airline safety issues. At the heart Delta Air Lines crash that killed 137 on Aug. 2, 1985, at of the issue lies FAA's conflicting mandates: to ensure the Dallas-Fort Worth Airport and the July 2,1994, USAir crash welfare ofthe flying public but also to nurture the economic in Charlotte, N.C, which killed 37. We've gone from a welfare of the aviation industry (Brazil, 1994)..) hazard that caused hundreds of deaths in the '70s and '80s to essentially, knock on wood, we're not having them anymore," McCarthy says (Rozas, 2002, p. 6). "At the time we started this work. we never dreamed it would be as

Wayne L. Golding holds an MS. in Counseling and Guidance fiom Troy State University and a B.S. in Meteorology from Texas A&M University. He retired fiom the Air Force in 1995 after 36 years of service, as a weather officer .He is currently an Assistant Professor of Applied Aviation Sciences at Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University.

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JAAER, Winter 2005 Page 45

PCATDs and Beginning Students

A STEP TOWARD EARLY PC-BASED TRALVING Ttlti T REDUCES RISK: 4 THE EFFECTS OF PRACTICING AN "INSTRUMENT REFERENCED" SKILL PATTERN ON "USUALLY REFERENCED" PERFORMANCE OF BEGINNING FLIGHT STUDENTS

Ryan Olson and John Austin

1 ABSTRACT A matched pairs design was used to evaluate the effects of instrument referenced skill pattern practice on a Personal Computer-Based Aviation Training Device (PCATD) on beginning flight student performance in the field (N= 28). Approximately three hours of experimental training was administered by a certified flight instructor between students' first and ninth flight hours, with each student completing six skill pattern trials. The treatment group (n = 14) performed better than the control group (n = 13) on every dependent measure, with a mean effect size of .35. Statistical tests on mean differences were inconclusive, but the favorable effect sizes and absence of negative transfer should encourage scientists and practitioners to expand the use of PCATDs to improve learning and safety among beginning flight students.

Personal computer (PC) -based technology for teaching aviation-related skills is steadily growing in both The guiding vision for the current study was to quality and quantity. People interested in aviation can buy contributeto the eventual development of PC-based training increasingly affordable and sophisticated aviation related modules that reduce the risk of accidents and incidents software and control interfaces for PCs. Just a few examples among beginning flight students. As an exploratory step include joysticks that provide "force feedback" by vibrating toward this kid of training, we evaluated the effects of under certain conditions, the ability to "fly" multiple types early supplemental PCATD training on student performance of aircraft and select from multiple views of the flying during the first semester of flight training. The training experience, and the emergence of satellite-based occurred between students' first and ninth flight hours, and geographical terrain imagery. However, PC-based aviation involved practicing an instrument referenced "skill pattern." training devices (PCATDs) that meet Federal Aviation The skill pattern condition was a replication of a condition Administration (FAA) software and hardware standards for 6-om a previous study conducted by Lintern, Taylor, use in formal flight instruction may only be used for a Koonce, Kaiser, and Morrison (1997), where beginning maximum of four hours of instrument training applied students appeared to benefit 6-om the treatment. The effects toward earning an instrument flight rules (IFR) rating of the independent variable were assessed using a variety of (Federal Aviation Administration, 1997). measures of student performance in the field. Conservative policies regarding the use of Why Focus on Beginning Flight Students? PCATDs are appropriate while we experiment with such An analysis of historical accidents and incidents at technologies and evaluate the effectiveness of potential the organization participating in this study revealed that the applications. However, PC-aided and PC-based training majority of such occurrences happened during the landing should expand beyond instrument training as we discover stage of flight and involved solo student pilots with 30 or areas of application that improve student learning, reduce fewer hours of total flying experience (Olson, Rantz, & cost, and increase safety. We will, no doubt, also discover Dickinson, 2001). Most flight training professionals would limitations in the effectiveness of supplemental PC-based not be surprised by these data, and other flight schools training for flight students. One possible type of limitation would likely observe similar patterns in their own historical is that some skills learned on PCATDs could interfere with records. The bottom line is that learning to fly is inherently rather than enhance student performance in the field (i.e., risky, and students may be exposed to an elevated level of negative or undesirable transfer of training). However, we risk during their first several months in the air. should not let fears about the limits of PC-based technology Teaching a student pilot an effective professional prevent us $-om developing potentially life saving flying repertoire is a complicated process, and flight training applications. professionals generally attend to each phase of flight

JAAER, Winter 2005 Page 47 PCA TDs and Beginning Students instruction with care. However, the progress and groups F(3,66) = 1.371, p = .259]. If the skill pattern performance of beginning flight students is not always given condition was actually inert, this result would suggest that the extra special attention it deserves. From an empirical simulated landing practice did not benefit participants, perspective, flight schools are likely to benefit fiom paying which was contrary to evidence fiom previous research. special attention to this phase of flight and to particular However, in an earlier study, Lintern, Roscoe, Koonce, and variables implicated as "hot spots" in historical accident, Segal(1990) included a control group that had no simulation incident, and occurrence analyses (Rantz, Olson, & practice of any kind. Lintern, et al. (1997) found that the Dickinson, 2001). With regard to the occurrence pattern difference between pre-solo student attempted landings in discussed above, maximally effective risk management the 1990 control group (n = 16, M = 73.44) and the 1997 practices would begin by ensuring that policies and skill pattern group (n = 17, M = 52.35) was statistically procedures governing solo flights have been expertly significant (3 1) = 4.2 1, p < .OO 1. The authors concluded, designed and rigorously implemented. In addition, flight since the setting and general training environment for both schools might (I) expand data collec,tion on student landing studies were essentially the same, that the skill pattern performance, (2) conduct more problem-solving regarding practice must have taught skills that were generally instructional design and student learning, and (3) invest in beneficial for beginning flight students. Lintern, et al. (1 997) research programs to explore the effectivenessof innovative recognized that this phenomenon had been observed before, training strategies for beginning students. While the citing studies by Ritchie and Hanes (l964)ad Ritchie and organization participating in the current study has invested Michael (1955) as early examples. While we were cautious in all of these areas, the current project was most directly about the validity of comparing groups fiom different related to the third strategy . studies, the possibility that the "instrument referenced" skill Why PCA TDs? pattern improved so called "visually referenced" student - The previous section highlighted the challenge of performance in the field was intriguing, and, in our view, helping novice pilots become experts as quickly as possible worthy of an empirical replication. while simultaneously minimizing risk. One option for The skill pattern condition in Lintern, et al. (1997) improving students' learning in this fashion is to provide was conducted with custom built FTDs rather than them with early simulated landing practice in Flight PCATDs. However, empirical evidence suggests that the Training Devices (FTDs). For example, there is evidence skill pattern condition could be functionally replicated with that simulated landing practice in FTDs can reduce the a PCATD. In an FAA Advisory Circular approving number of landings practiced by students prior to their fmt PCATDs for instrument flight training, the author(s) wrote: solo flights (e.g., Lintern, Roscoe, Koonce, & Segal, 1990). However, FTDs are expensive and not always available to A study conducted by the University of Illinois, students, and, even when they are available, mining slots titled "Transfer of Training Eff'ectiveness of for beginning flight students can be limited. Personal Computer-Based Aviation Training The growing quality of PC-based technology offers Devices: Final Report," dated October 1996, opportunities to develop supplemental training for beginning examined each task addressed in this [Advisory flight students that is more affordable and widely available Circular]. The director of the study affirmed that than FTD-based training, thereby enabling greater potential all instrument training tasks allowed by this impact on the learning and safety of entire cohorts of [Advisory Circular] have a positive transfer students. For this reason, we believe it is important for effectiveness, or no statistically significant scientists and practitioners to explore PC-based training negative transfer effectiveness. Given this applications that move beyond their typical use as background, the FAA has determined that there supplemental IFR trainers. is sufficient justification to allow the use of Development of the PCA TD Troining Condition for the PCATD's meeting acceptable standards as Current Study creditable devices for meeting some of the While investigating the effects of various training requirements for an instrument rating combinations of visual scene detail and augmentation in under the applicable provisions of part 6 1 or part combination with various amounts of simulated landing 141. (p. 2) practice for beginning flight students, Lintern Taylor, Koonce, Kaiser, and Monison (1997) used a control group Given the evidence for the effectiveness of that practiced an instrument or non-visual skill pattern. It PCATDs for teaching a range of instrument-related tasks, was reported that students in both the landing practice we believed that the FTD-based skill pattern practice groups and the skill pattern group attempted essentially the provided in Lintern et al. (1997) could be functionally same number of landings prior to their first solo flights [i.e., replicated with a PCATD. The primary purpose of the there was not a statistically significant difference between current study was to replicate the Lintern, et al. (1 997) skill

Page 48 JAAER, Winter 2005 PCATDs and Beginning Students pattern condition with a PCATD and evaluate its effects on Science bachelor's degree program on the first day of their the performance of beginning flight students. In addition, first professional flight course using an informed consent this experiment was viewed as a step toward intentionally process approved by the relevant Human Subjects designing supplemental PC-based instruction to improve Institutional Review Board'. Pre-solo students with ten or learning and safety among cohorts of beginning flight fewer officially logged flight hours were eligible to @dents. participate, and the majority of eligible students consented METHOD (N = 28, 24 Male, 4 Female, Mean age = 21.2 years). Hypotheses Background information was collected from participants at For the experimental manipulation in the current that time, including hours of previous flying experience and study, the null hypothesis was that skill pattern practice on estimates of previous aviation related PC gaming a PCATD would have no effect on the performance of experience. beginning flight students. in other words, lthis hypothesis Experimental Design stated that in the population from which the current sample A matched-pairs research design was used to was drawn, the mean difference between treatment and maximize experimental power. The primary matching control groups on any given performance measure is variable was average student rankings on scores contributing actually zero (&: p, = p,). The alternative hypothesis was to the Speed and Working Memory (SWM) factor of the that skill pattern practice on a PCATD would have an effect Cogscreen Aeromedical EditionTM(CSAE) test, which is a on the performance of beginning flight students. In other computer administered and scored test of cognitive abilities words, this hypothesis stated that in the population from that is related to aviation performance (Kay, 1995). The which the current sample was drawn, the mean difference SWM factor of the CSAE was delineated by Taylor, between treatment and control groups on any given O'Hara, Murnenthaler, and Yesavage (2000), who used performance measure is not zero (H,: p, z p,). This non- principal components analysis to create a set of five factors directional alternative hypothesis would allow us to reject fiom among the 65 raw scores produced by the test. The the null hypothesis even if our treatment group happened to SWM factor was chosen as a matching variable because perform worse than the control group. Taylor, et al. (2000) found that it had the highest correlation We felt that a conservative. nondirectional with participant performance summary scores on a jet hypothesis was appropriate because Lintern, et al. (1997) simulator task (Spearman r = 0.57). In addition to pairing had obtained their results using an FTD for training rather students on the basis of CSAE scores, reported previous than a PCATD. However, the direction of the results flight and PC experience was taken into consideration when observed by Lintern et al. in (1997) caused us to favor the average CSAE ranks were similar. prediction that the treatment group would perform better To control for differential teaching effectiveness, than the control group on one or more performance as many students as possible were assigned to instructors as measures. intact pairs, with individual instructors being assigned a Participants and Setting maximum oftwo research pairs (four participating students). The participating university-based flight school, After scheduling challenges were addressed, 10 of the 14 referred to hereafter as the participating organization (PO), total pairs shared the same instructor. One member of each had nearly 900 students enrolled in its various training pair was then randomly assigned to the treatment condition, programs at the time of the study. These programs included and participants were contacted by e-mail andlor telephone four-year bachelor's degrees in Aviation Flight Science, by the fust author and informed of their group assignment Aviation Maintenance Technology, and Aviation Science and responsibilities. When participants were informed of and Administration. The Aviation Flight Science program their group assignment, they were also asked not to divulge operated as a Pilot Training School under Federal Aviation their group membership to instructors. Flight instructors at Regulations Part 14 1 (Federal Aviation Administration, the PO were encouraged by memo not to inquire about 2001a). In addition to these degree programs, the PO whether or not their students were participating in the study. operated an International Pilot Training Centre that trained Experimental Laboratory and Equipment cadets for employment as commercial pilots with major The experimental training was conducted in a airlines using an accelerated 14 month training program laboratory room 2.60111 high, 2.44m wide, and 3.51m long, (i.e., an "ab initio" or "fiom the beginning'' style syllabus). equipped with a remote controlled camera mounted in an Participants were recruited fiom the Aviation Flight upper comer of the room. The PC used as the base

JAAER, Winter 2005 Page 49 PCATDs and Beginning Students

configuration for the PCATD was equipped with a Pentium table 76.20cm high, 76.20cm deep, and 12 1.92cm wide. The I1@ 300 megahertz processor, 4 megabytes of SGRAM yoke was secured in place using plastic brackets mounted to video memory, and 64 megabytes of SDRAM memory. the table to prevent drift or sliding during manipulation. The Other PC related hardware included a Dell QuietKeyB monitor was placed directly behind the yoke. The thrbttle keybord, a traditional style roller-ball mouse, a monitor quadrant was placed to the right of the yoke with the (actual screen size 27.61cm high X 36.20cm wide), and two avionics panel resting on top of it. The rudder pedals were " NSTdSP-660 3D speakers. Relevant software included attached to the carpeted floor with Velcrom directly below Windows 95@ and OnTop@ IFR Proficiency Simulator the yoke, with the pedals positioned 33.00cm deep bmthe version 6.0. All other equipment used to configure the PC as iiont of the table. Two cushioned office-style chairs were an FAA approved PCATD was manufactured by Precision used for the set up with adjustable seat height, backrest Flight Controls@ and included a Cirrus yoke, a throttle position, seat pitch, and armrest height. See Figure 1 to view quadrant, an avionics panel, and rudder pedals. a photograph of the training set up. The keyboard, mouse, monitor, speakers, yoke, throttle quadrant, and avionics panel were assembled on a

Figure 1. PCATD Station

Page 50 JAAER, Winter 2005 PCATDs and Beginning Students

Independent Variable Department of Transportation & Federal Aviation The PCATD training was administered by a Administration, 1980). Differences between the skill pattem certified flight instructor (CFI) at the PO, hereafter referred used in Lintern et al. (1997) and the Instrument Flying to as the treatment instructor (TI), who was not the primary Handbook (U.S. Department of Transportation & Federal instructor for any beginning flight students during the Aviation Administration, 1980) included replacing some semester of the study (Female; age 29). The training took of the straight and level turns with climbing and descending place during the first two months of a winter semester turns. Talluer also reported that full flight instruction was between each student's first and ninth flight hours at the PO. provided for participants during the skill pattern training The TI was paid with funds obtained through small research sessions. grants according to her current PO pay rate ($14.00 per Based on the information gathered fiom Lintern et hour). Treatment participants were not paid. The PCATD al. (1997) and fiom Talluer (2001), a protocol for the training was administered across two' sessions of treatment condition in the current study was developed by approximately 1.5 hours each. Exceptions to this rule the first author and the TI. The skill pattern was based included one participant who completed the training across directly on pattern A fiom the previous version of the three sessions, and two participants who were both Instrument FIying Handbook (1980) and included 16phases permitted to complete all six trials in one session due to or legs. The second turn of pattern A was replaced with a extreme scheduling challenges. climbing turn at 500 feet per minute and the sixth turn was The training resembled the skill-pattern practice replaced with a descending turn at 500 feet per minute. No condition described by Lintern, Taylor, Koonce, Kaiser, and changes were made to the timing of skill pattern legs. In Monison (1997) as closely as possible. Lintern, et al. accordance with the skill pattem activity reported by (1997) wrote that a skill-pattern practice trial required Lintern, et al. (1997), each trial began with the student students to perform ". ..a takeoff and then engage in a series performing a take off and ended with three minutes of VOR of precision constant-altitude turns, descending and tracking. A complete trial required 21 minutes and 45 climbing turns, and speed changes. The task then ended with seconds to complete. For the simulated take off, a runway at VOR (very high frequency omni range) tracking for 3 the host airport was programmed, and participants were minutes" (p. 154). Lintern, et al. (1997) reported that one allowed four minutes to climb to 3000 feet above sea level trial of the skill pattern required approximately 25 minutes and establish normal cruise speed. The VOR for a nearby to complete. Don Talluer, a faculty member at the airport was used for VOR tracking and began 30 seconds University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign who assisted in after the last timed turn had been completed. Visually the Lintern, et al. (1997) study, provided additional referenced flying was prevented by programming OnTopO information on this skill pattern condition (D. Talluer, to generate clouds with bases of 2000 feet and ceilings of personal communication, November 11, 2001). He wrote 5000 feet. Winds were programmed at zero. See Figure 2 to that the pattern closely resembled a standard type A pattern view a diagram of the experimental version of pattern A. fiom lesson 15 of the Instrument Flying Handbook (U.S.

JAAER, Winter 2005 Page 5 1 PCATDs and beg inn in^ Students

Figure 2. Experimental Skill Pattern.

Note: Adapted from the Instrument Flying Handbook (U.S. Department of Transportation & Federal Aviation Administration, 1980) p. 265. Start times in minutes and seconds and headings in degrees for each leg were: (1) 4:00,230; (2) 5:00, turning; (3) 5: 15,185; (4) 6:15, turning; (5) 7:15,005; (6) 7:45, turning; (7) 8:00,050; (8) 10:00, turning; (9) 10:15,095; (10) 11:00, turning; (1 1) 12:15,230; (12) 14:15, turning; (13) 15:15,050;(14) 17:15,turning;(15) 18:15,230; (16) 18:45, variable. The pattemended at 21:45.

Page 52 JAAER, Winter 2005 PCA TDs and Beginning Students

A timer on the OnTopB instrument panel was ratios), (3) week eight of the semester (week eight ratios), started at the beginning of each skill pattern trial by the TI and (4) at the end of the semester (end ratios). In addition to and was used by both the TI and participants to track leg these measures, both the number of flight hours logged and changes. The TI announced the type and duration of the the number of landings practiced by students prior to upcoming skill pattern leg to participants several seconds in accomplishing progress checks and solo flights were advance. At the conclusion of each leg, participants were counted, resulting in the following four additional measures: gknerally prompted by the TI to correct any deviations from (5) pre-progress check hours, (6) pre-progress check performance targets andlor praised for meeting or landings, (7) pre-solo hours, and (8) pre-solo landings. Pre- maintaining performance targets. progress check and pre-solo measures were redundant to Performance targets during the skill pattern condition some extent because a successful progress check was Based on the initial heading of 230 degrees of the runway required before a student could be cleared for a first solo used for the simulated takeoff, the author and the TI flight. However, all measures will be reported and analyzed established target headings for each leg of the pattern. here due to the exploratory nature of the study. Target altitudes were established by requiring participants Additional landing measures. At the time the project was to begin the pattern at 3000 feet above sea level. With taking place, all beginning flight students (including both climbing and descending rates established at 500 feet per treatment and control group participants from the current minute, altitude targets alternated between 3000 and 3500 study) and their instructors were simultaneously feet, depending upon the leg of the pattern. Normal and low participating in a data collection procedure regarding student cruise rates were established as 2200 engine revolutions per landing performance as part of a more comprehensive risk minute (rpms) and 1900rpms respectively. These rpms were management initiative at the PO. The primary aspect of this derived from PO standards for operating a Cessna 172R measurement system required both instructors and students single engine aircraft. to rate the last student landing of each training flight across Measures ofperfomance during PCA TD training sessions. twelve dimensions of performance. In general, each Deviations from performance targets during each performance dimension was rated as meeting performance participant's six skill pattern trials were measured by the TI standards or deviating £tom them in a specific fashion (i.e., using a paper data sheet due to the data collection errors). This system is mentioned briefly here because it limitations of OnTopB 6.0 (e.g., the instrument panel is not allowed us to compare general patterns in landing errors visible when saved OnTop@ flights are replayed and the across groups in the current study. graphic display of performance parameters does not include RESULTS time hatch marks on the abscissa). During the first several Performance During PCATD Training seconds of a new leg, the TI recorded altitude, heading, and As described in the Method section, altitude, engine rpm for each participant from the instruments heading, and engine rpm were collected in vivo by the IT displayed on the monitor. The video camera in the during PCATD training sessions. Engine rpms did not vary laboratory was focused on the PCATD monitor, and the first enough to warrant analysis. Patterns in altitude and heading author or a research assistant simultaneously recorded the deviations are discussed below. same measures for 30% of the skill pattern trials from a Group absolute deviationsj?om,heading and altitude targets remote observation room to assess reliability. by trials. For the treatment group (n = 14), mean absolute PCATD participant survey. A survey was administered to deviations from altitude targets in feet and variability in the 14 treatment participants by e-mail after the PCATD altitude performance generally decreased across trials. training was completed. All 14 participants responded to the Variability in the data also generally decreased across trials. survey, which included Likert-type and open-ended An ANOVA of altitude deviations was statistically questions about their experience in the training condition significant, F(5, 1241) = 4.945, p = .000, with Tukey and their opinions about its effects. multiple comparison tests finding significant differences Dependent Measures in the Field between trials 1 and 5 (p = .026), 1 and 6 (p = .000), and 2 Existing records and databases at the PO were used and 6 @ = .003). Regression analyses were not conducted to collect performance measures. The fust category of due to the heterogeneous variance across trials. performance measures were estimates of the efficiency of Mean absolute deviations from heading targets in student progress through the flight lessons and were degrees and variability in heading performance generally calculated for each student by computing ratios of the decreased across trials. An ANOVA computed for heading absolute number of lessons completed versus the total deviations was statistically significant, F(5,665) = 12.824, number of training flights completed at different points in p = .OW, with Tukey multiple comparison tests finding time during the semester. Ratios were computed at the significant differences between trials 1 and 2 (p = .000), 1 following four points in time: (1) the first successful and 3 (p = .001), 1 and 4 (p = .000), 1 and 5 (p = .000), 1 progress check (progress ratios), (2) the first solo flight (solo and 6 (p = .000), and 3 and 6 (p = .048). As with altitude

JAAER, Winter 2005 PCATDs and Beginning Students deviations, Regression analyses were not conducted due to heterogeneous variance across trials.

Table 1 Group Performance Across Skill Pattern Trials

Heading Deviations Altitude Deviations in Degrees in Feet

Trial UAD . SD UAD SD

n = 14 for all trials; MAD = mean absolute deviations

Reliability ofheading and altitude measures. Inter-observer skill pattern trials (M= 4.4). Participants also recommended agreement (IOA) percentages for heading and altitude PC-based training for other beginning students in the future measures were calculated by dividing the number of (M = 4.0). However, students generally felt that it was too agreements by the number of agreements plus early to judge whether the training positively impacted their disagreements, and then multiplying the result by 100. For performance in the field (M= 3.6). In open ended questions, measures of altitude collected during PCATD trials, an two students expressed feelings that the PCATD training observation was counted as an agreement if the secondary created some negative transfer to their learning in the field, data collector's record was plus or minus 40 feet from the causing them to pay too much attention to their instrument IT'S record (the altimeter had minor and major tick marks, panel during flight lessons. Many students reported that the where the difference between minor tick marks was 20 feet). most useful aspect of the instruction was learning how At this level of sensitivity, overall average IOA for altitude instruments worked together andlor practicing instrument measures was 82.04% (range for separate legs of the skill related maneuvers, and that the least useful aspect of the pattern: 67.9% - 96.7%). For measures of heading, an training was the over-sensitivity or inaccurate feeling of the observation was counted as an agreement if the secondary controls. Also, a female student who was considering data collector's record was plus or minus 10 degrees from quitting the flight program reported that the PCATD training the IT'S record (the heading indicator had major and minor had boosted her confidence and caused her to decide to tick marks, where the difference between major tick marks continue with flight training. was 10 degrees). At this level of sensitivity, overall average Between Croups Comparisons IOA for heading measures was 93.34% (range for separate One participant dropped out of the flight program legs of the skill pattern: 83.3% - 96.7%). eight weeks into the semester, and at the conclusion of the Survey Results semester, eight students had still not flown solo. After All Likert-style questions were five point scales tracking participants for an additional month, five had still with five being the most favorable response. The results of not flown solo. At that point in time, the window for the Likert-style survey questions indicated that students analysis was closed due to inconsistent student flying during generally believed that their performance improved across the summer and the growing temporal distance of the

Page 54 JAAER, Winter 2005 PCATDs and Beginning Students performance from the experimental training condition. standard deviation units. Effect sizes ranged from .OO to .49 The treatment group performed better on average (M = .35). According to Cohen's (1988, 1992) effect size on all dependent measures collected. However, none of the conventions, .20, -50, and .80 effect sizes are considered independent samples t tests on mean differences were small, medium, and large respectively. Table 2 summarizes statistically significant (p value range = .28 to .99). Given treatment and control group means, standard deviations, t that the relatively small sample may have affected the values, p values, and effect sizes for each of the dependent datistical power of the study, it is useful to examine effect measures. sizes, which transform mean differences into pooled

JAAER, Winter 2005 Page 55 PCA TDs and Beginning Students

Table 2

Summav ofDependent Measures and Statistics for Treatment and Control Groups Measure and Group n M SD Min Max t P d Pre-Progress Hours 1.07 .30 .46 Control 11 23.26 5.49 13.70 33.50 Treatment 11 20.32 7.29 10.60 32.40 .99 .33 .42

Control 11 53.00 15.14 26.00 81.00 Treatment 11 47.27 11.67 28.00 62.00 -1.10 .28 .49

Control 11 .37 .I 1 .26 .56 Treatment 11 .43 .14 .27 .69 .79 .30 .33 Control 11 27.62 7.16 17.80 43.60 Treatment 11 25.23 7.07 15.30 37.90 .63 .33 .26

Control 11 64.91 19.55 38.00 104.00 Treatment 11 60.73 10.54 42.00 77.00 -1.04 .28 .48

Control 11 0.39 0.12 0.24 0.6 1 Treatment 11 0.45 0.13 0.30 0.65 -0.12 .99 .oo

Control 14 0.38 0.14 0.2 1 0.63 Treatment 14 0.39 0.17 0.17 0.68 -0.85 .93 .36 End Ratios Control 13 .42 .I2 .24 .59 Treatment 14 .46 .I0 .32 .60

Page 56 JAAER, Winter 2005 PCA TDs and Beninninn Students

Landing errors. The control group averaged 4.1 8 (SD = treatment group in an experiment evaluating simulated 2.93) errors per landing and the treatment group averaged landing practice in FTDs, and Lintern, Taylor, Koonce, 3.94 (SD = 2.97) errors per landing. However, there was a Kaiser, and Monison in (1997) speculated about a mean negative linear relationship between number of errors per difference of approximately 21 pre-solo landings between landing and measures of experience (e-g., flight lessons their skill pattern practice group and the control group fiom c,ompleted). Therefore, errors per landing were regressed on the earlier 1990 study. As discussed previously, we lesson numbers for each group instead of comparing means. observed a mean difference of approximately four pre-solo For the control group F(1,236) = 26.77, p = .000, and the landings. On the measure of pre-solo hours, however, the standardized slope of the regression line was -.33. For the treatment group in the current study averaged approximately treatment group F(1,240) = 33.03, p = .000, and the two fewer hours than the control group, which is more than standardized slope of the regression line was -.35. These twice as large as the difference observed by Lintern, Roscoe, analyses indicated, once again, slight differences between Koonce, and Segai in 1990, who found a difference of only groups in favor of the treatment condition (i-e., slightly one hour between treatment and control groups on that steeper decline in error rate). measure. DISCUSSION Hypotheses and Future Directions Potential Practical Significance In the Method section we proposed hypotheses No meaningful negative transfer of training was about the effects of the skill pattern condition on the observed, and the treatment group showed better average performance of beginning flight students, and as discussion performance on all dependent measures. Although the points, it is worthwhile to consider to what extent each was results were nbt statistically significant, they may be supported by the data. As previously discussed, our null practically significant if the favorable small to medium hypothesis was that the skill pattern practice condition effect sizes are replicable across semesters. For example, the would have no effect on performance in the field (H,: p, = treatment group averaged approximately four fewer pre-solo pz). Our alternative hypothesis was that the treatment landings and approximately two fewer pre-solo hours than condition would either cause worse performance in the field the control group. The average number of landings practiced than the control condition (i-e., negative transfer of training) per training flight during the course of the study was 3.5, or better performance in the field than the control condition and the average length of a training flight was 1.5 hours. So, (H,: p, + p,). We favored the "better performance" i?om a practical standpoint, a reduction in four landings prediction. practiced could translate into a savings of 1.5 hours of flight Although we were not able to reject the null time for each student. Instruction and aircraft rental costs for hypothesis based on the traditional cut off values for a 1.5-hour instructional flight at the PO were approximately statistical significance, the small sample size may have $174.00 at the time of the study. Multiply this figure by a resulted in lower than desired experimental power, which group of 40 beginning students, and the potential savings would have inflated the probability of making type I1 errors would be $6,960.00 for the group minus the costs of (i.e., incorrect retention of null hypotheses). An inflated type PCATD training. Hypothetically, the savings for the PO 11 error rate does not exclude the possibility that the would be in reduced time demands on the fleet ( i.e., favorable results we observed were simply due to random approximately 60 fewer hours per semester), and in reduced sampling variation, but it does invite a cautious attitude aggregate student error. There could be additional gains in about statistical conclusions. In this light, we believe that the efficiency and profitability if flight schools could utilize the mean differences in performance in favor of the treatment added fleet time by training more students. If PCATD group suggest that the alternative hypothesis should not be training was intentionally designed for greater impact, discarded. learning and safety benefits could be even greater than those With regard to the alternative hypothesis, we observed in the current study. believe that the data do not support the notion that the skill Comparisons to Previous Relevant Research pattern condition causes improvements in performance as Actual mean differences in pre-solo landings large as those observed by Lintern, et al. (1997; e.g., 21 between our groups were smaller in magnitude than those fewer pre-solo landings on average). It is possible that the reported by Lintern and colleagues in previous relevant potency of the skill pattern is greater when FTDs are used, studies. Lintern, Roscoe, Koonce, and Segal(l990) reported or that we failed in some way to replicate some meaningful a mean difference of nine pre-solo landings in favor of the aspect ofthe training condition used by Lintern et al. (1 997),

JAAER, Winter 2005 PCATDs and Beginning Students but we think it is most probable that the PCATD skill performance improvement effects with the skill pattern pattern activity causes small-to-moderate improvements in activity, it may be wise to move toward designing PC-based beginning flight student performance. In fact, it would be training that intentionally targets repertoires relevant to the surprising ifbeginning students did not benefit from an extra challenges faced by beginning students. In our opinion, three hours of training with a CFI. Not only were mean several potential performance targets for PC-based training differences in favor of the treatment group, but a visual with beginning students are (1) teaching procedures relevant inspection of variability in performance reveals generally for beginning students, including those that are unique to the better minimum and maximum scores in favor of the training airport and other frequently utilized facilities, (2) treatment group (see Table 2 to review performance data). teaching knowledge of the local training area, including These patterns could be due to random sampling variation, practice areas and major landmarks, (3) teaching basic but the matched pairs research design should have directional control skills and familiarizing beginning minimized this concern. Given, the extent of our students with the basic feel of and coordination among experimental control and the strong patterns in favor of the airplane control interfaces, and (4) teaching a select sample treatment group, we believe the best working hypothesis for of instrument skills. Identifjling possible target repertoires future research is that the skill pattern causes some small but is, of course, only the fmt step toward designing PC-based potentially practically significant improvements in training with high impact on beginning flight student performance. In this light, our results should be interpreted performance. Success will also require effective as promising but inconclusive pending replications of our instructional design and valid performance measures in the obtained effect sizes. field. Designing PCA TD Trainingfor Higher Impact CONCLUSION If the skill pattern activity is potent, the PC-based training for beginning flight students is mechanisms by which it improves student performance in an important potential tool for improving leaming and safety the field are unknown. The task overtly teaches skills related in flight school environments. While some scientists and to instrument flying, but so far its potential benefits have practitioners may be concerned about negative transfer been assessed using metrics more closely related to student while expanding PC-based training applications, we found landing skills. The main question is "how might the skill no meaningful evidence for this concern in relation to our pattern task benefit beginning flight students?" In our view, independent variable. To the contrary, we observed effects the task could have taught (1) technical skills directly related in favor of the treatment group that would be practically to landing (e-g., directional control skills), (2) technical significant if replicable. In general, we hope this exploratory skills that were supportive or indirectly related to landing study functions as a stimulus for the development of PC- (e.g., instrument skills helping with base leg and final based training that is designed for high impact on beginning approach), or (3) cognitive skills or knowledge that student performance in the field. Benefits of this type of indirectly supported performances we measured in the field instruction may be achieved directly through teaching (e.g., thinking or problem solving skills leamed with the technical skills or indirectly through teaching verbal and CFI). In addition, one or more of these types of knowledge procedural repertoires that free cognitive resources during and skill sets could have reduced cognitive workload in the flight. What can and cannot be taught effectively using PC- air as new pilots attempted to manage the complexities of based systems is ultimately an empirical question, and, in the flight environment. our view, scientists and practitioners who invest in this area In the absence of evidence suggesting large are likely to discover applications of great practical value..)

--

Page 58 JAAER, Winter 2005 PCATDs and Beginning Students

Ryan Olson is currently an Assistant Professor of Psychology at Santa Clara University located in the heart of the Silicon Valley in Northern California. He received his BS degree from Utah State University and MA and PhD degrees from Western Michigan University. He is affiliated with the Center for Science, Technology, and Society at Santa Clara University as a member of the Research Group for Innovation and Organizational Change. He has published research and scholarly papers on the topics of performance improvement, occupational health and safety, work motivation, and aviation psychology, and has served as a guest editor for the Journal of Organizational Behavior Management and the Journal ofApplied Behavior Analysis. He has consulted with bus transit, aviation, auto parts and paper products manufacturing, higher education, and pharmaceutical organizations on training, safety, psychological assessment, and performance improvement issues.

John Austin is currently Associate Professor in Psychology in the Industrial-Organizational Psychology and Applied Behavior Analysis programs at Western Michigan University. Dr. Austin received his BA from the University ofNotre Dame, and his MS and PhD from Florida State University with a strong record in organizational consultation, teaching, and research before joining the faculty in the Department of Psychology at Western Michigan University in 1996. He is currently co-editor of the Journal of Organizational Behavior Management, and on the board of editors for three other comparable journals, including the Journal ofApplied Behavior Analysis. In the area of improving human performance he has published more than 60 articles and chapters, delivered more than 120 presentations at regional, national, and international conferences, and has published two books, Organizational Change, and Handbook ofApplied Behavior Analysis (available through Context Press). He has consulted with organizations to improve safety and productivity in the public and private sectors including government, construction, glass and plastics rnanufadg, chemical, utilities, retail, food service, higher education, and other industries. He currently teaches organizational and behavioral psychology, performance management, behavioral safety, consultation at the graduate and undergraduate level, and trains graduate students in organizational consultation.

JAAER, Winter 2005 Page 59 PCATDs and Beginning Students

REFERENCES

Cohen, J. (1988). Statistical power analysisfor the behavioral sciences. Hillsdale, NJ: Erlbaum.

Cohen, J. (1 992). The power primer. Psychological Bulletin, 112, 155-159.

Federal Aviation Administration (1997). QualiJicationand approval ofpersonal computer-based aviation training devices (Advisory Circular No. AC6 1- 126, 511 2/97). Washington, DC: U.S. Department of Transportation.

Kay, G. G. (1 995). CogScreen lMa&romedical edition professional flight manual. Washington, DC: CogScreen, LLC.

Lintern, G., Roscoe, S., Koonce, J., & Segal, L. (1990). Transfer of landing skills in beginning flight training. Human Factors, 32 (3), 3 19-327.

Lintern, G., Taylor, H. L., Koonce, J. M., Kaiser, R. H., & Morrison, G. A. (1997). Transfer and quasi-transfer of scene detail and visual augmentation in landing training. The International Journal of . Aviation Psychology, 7 (2), 149- 169.

Olson, R., Rantz, W., & Dickinson, A. M. (2001). Behavior-based safety assessment report forflight operations. Battle Creek, MI: Western Michigan University, College of Aviation.

Rantz, W., Olson, R., & Dickinson, A. M. (2001). Complimenting the traditional hierarchy of aviation safety controls with a behavior-based safety system: Preliminary findings from the College of Aviation at Western Michigan University. Proceedings of the International Society of Aviation Psychology, Columbus, OH.

Ritchie, M. L., & Hanes, L. F. (1964). An experimental analysis of transfer effects between contact and instrumentflight training. Washington, DC: Federal Aviation Agency.

Ritchie, M. L., & Michael, A. L. (1 955). Transfer between instrument and contact flight training. Journal ofApplied Psychology, 39, 145-149.

Taylor, J. L., O'Hara, R., Mumenthaler, M. S., & Yesavage, J. A. (2000). Relationship of Cogscreen-AE to flight simulator performance and pilot age. Aviation, Space, and Environmental Medicine, 71 (4), 373- 3 80. U.S. Department of Transportation & Federal Aviation Administration (1980). Instrumentflying handbook (AC 61 -27C). Washington, DC: U.S. Government Printing Office.

Page 60 JAAER, Winter 2005 PCATDs and Beginning Students

END NOTES

1. Data collected from these participants were also used to conduct empirical analyses of the relationship between the

CogScreenTM Aeromedical Edition Test and performance in the field.

JAAER, Winter 2005 Page 6 1

BACK ISSUES

Volume 1 Number 1 - Spriog 1990: Is the Legal Pilot Really Safe?; Optimized Engineat Procedures to Extend the Range of Jet Transport Airplanes; Pass 17Along;Approaches to Learning: Relationships with Pilot Performance; The Impact of Deregulation on Airports: An International Perspective.

Volume 1 Number 2 - Fall 1990: Teaching Aviation Law at the Undergraduate Level: A Syllabus; Pilots' Evaluation of the Usefulness of LOFT Type IFR Simulator Flightsfor General Aviation Pilot Training;Emerging as a Major Carrier: A Case Study of America West Airlines; Introduction to Critical Issues in Avlation and Aerospace Education; Do Elementary Teachers have Time for AviatiodAerospace Education?; AviationBpace Education as a National Influence in Education; Facing Issues in Aerospace Education;Developing a Formal Program to Improve Pilot Judgement; Partnershipsfor Publishing: A

New Look at Joint Writing Projects. I

Volume 1 Number 3 - Spriog 1991:A Shrdy of Wing Flap Management, an Analysis of the Consequencesof Flap Mismanagement,anda Searchfor Possible Causes; Cockpit Resource Management Training:Are Current Instructional Methods Likely to be Successful?;Divisibility, Technology,and the Competitive Potential for Regional Airlines.

Volume 2 Number 1 - Fall 1991: The Aviation Education Teacher Resource Center:A Unique Strategy to Improve Math andscience Education; Compliance and Enforcement Aviation Safity in the Public Interest, Part I: Statutory Authority and Enforcement Procedures; Competitionfor Hub Dominance: Some Implication to Airlice Profitability andEnplanement Share;Aviation Education Luncheon Sponsoredby GeneralAviationMamfacturers Association (GAMA): A Clearinghouse Need for Aviation Education; Aviation Education: Universitiesand Schools--Networking;Professional Accreditation of Non-Engineering Aviation Program; The Journal of AviatiodAerospace Education and Research: A Why, What and How Story; The FAA and Aviation Education.

Volume2 Number 2 - Wioter 1992:Editorial: Institutional Effectiveness: A New Hurdlefor CollegiateAviation; Compliance and Enforcement:Aviation Safety in the Public Interest, Part 11: Current Enforcement Program; A Methodfor ldentrfying GeneralAviation Airports That are Candidatesfor Runway Extensions: A Planning Mwlel for State Aviation System;A Quantitative Methodologyfor Measuring Airline Quality;Airline Unions Since Deregulation: %'Views of Selected Airline Union.

Volume 2 Number 3 - Spriog 1992:Editorial: Why Does it Take so Dam Long to Get Published?;Aviation Safety as a Function ofPilot Experience: Rationale or Rationalization?;FIying Time;An Assessment of the Impacts of Congestion Delay at Major Hubs to Airlines and Passengers;Compliance and Enforcement: Aviation Safety in the Public Sector, Part Ill: An Alternative Enforcement Program; Producing a Workshopfor Training Airline Inshuctors.

Volume 3 Number 1 - Fall 1992: Editorial: Air TransportationChallenges of the 1990s, Part I; Are the Visual Acuity Requirements for Pilots in the Airline Industry Justrfiable?; Learning Takes Flight: Award-winning Educators use Aviation to Spark Student Achievement; A Comparison Between Airline Cost Structure Pre- and Post-Deregulation; A Turning Point in Aviation Training: The AQP Mana'ates Crew Resource Management and Line Operational Simulations; FORUM: Goodbye to the Lecture: Embracing Interactive Learning Techniques.

Volume 3 Number 2 - Wioter 1993: Editorial: Air TransportationChallenges of the 1990s Part II; Cooperative Education Supported Collegiate Aviation Programs; Airline Employee Slowdowns and Sickouts as Unlawful Self Help: A Statistical Analysis; Transfer of Learning Eflectiveness: PC-Based Flight Simulation.

Volume 3 Number 3 - Spriog 1993: Editorial: Air TransportationChallenges of the 90s, Part 111; Fm:The Tilted Playing Field; The Demand for Aviation Activities at General Aviation Airports: An Empirical Study; Glass Cochpit;Availability of Proficient Entry-Level Airline Pilots: A Factor in Four of Six Hiring Criteria Tested; Personality and Hazardous Judgment Patterns within a Student Civil Aviation Population.

JAAER, Winter 2005 Page 63 BACK ISSUES, cont.

Volume 3 Number 4 -Summer 1993: Wtorial: A New Partnership is Formed; Aerospace Education vs Aviation andspace Education;Aviation Education - Why?;Determinants of Underrepresentationof Women in Aviation Education;Aviation & Aerospace Education: A Positive Impact on the 21st Centwy; Whnr Evidence Emsrs to Verify that Learning Through Aviation Work?;Is Aerospace Education Outdoted3;Learning Takes Flight: Award-winning Educators Use Aviation to Spark Student Achievement; Pass it Along.

Volume 4 Number 1 - Fall 1993: Editorial: What Would Henri Fayol Have Said About the U.S. Airline Industry andlts Problems?; Fm:Cross-Cultural Underpinningsof the Taiping Rebellion: Potential Modern Applications;Piston Airplane Cruise Performance; A Cost Analysis: Re-Engininga Boeing 727-200 (Advanced) Versus Buyrng a New Boeing 757-200;The Airline Quality Rating: Developing an Industry Standard.

Volume4 Number 2 -Winter 1994: Editorial: Too Little Too Late; Fm:Donvin Would be Justifiably Proud; Graduate Education in Airport Administration: Preparing Airport Managers for the 21st Century; Testing for the Existence of the Pilot Persomlity Projle in Collegiate Professional Pilot Candidates; Postsecondary Aviation Programs in the United States: 1950 and 1985;A Model for Developing an Airport Security Plan.

Volume 4 Number 3 -Spring 1994: Editorial: Airway Science: A Promise Kept or an OpportunityMissed?; Fm: Learning Takes Flight '93: Award- Winnmng Educators Use Aviation to S'rk Siudent Achievement; Aeromutical Decision-Making and University Aviation Association Certijied Flight Instmctors;A Cornparatbe Analysis ofAirline Pilots' Approaches to Learning, Flight Anxiety: Predictorsandlmplicationsfor Learning; Profssioml Pilot Studies: Proposed Content.

Vdumc 5 Number 1 - Fall 1994: Fotum: Success in Aviation Education: A Nationa/Suwey of Secondary Aviation Magnet Programs; Leisure Travel Market Potentialfor a High Speed Civil Transport; Analysis and Results of NationaI Study on Women in CollegiateAviation; Training Pilots or Educating Capturns? A Framework for Collegiate Ab lnitio Programs; An Evaluation of Cockpit Resource Management Training in Qantas.

Volume 5 Number 2 - Winter 1995: Edirial: What Should be Included in a Complete Aviation Education?; Forum: Educational Opportunities in Aviation Education; The European Joint Aviation Authorities: Meeting the Challenges of international Cooperation; The Effect of the Course "Women in Aviation" on College Student Anirudes Regarding Women in the Career Field of Aviation; Ethics in Aviation Education; Cockpit Resource Management Training: Are Current lnstructional Methods Likely to be Successful?

Volume 5 Number 3 -Spring 1995: Editorial: The Academic Tenure-ReviewProcess: An Asset or Liability to CollegiateAviation?; Human Circadian Rhyrhm and the Shiji Work Practices ofAir Traflc Controllers;Analysisof the Case Writing Methodfor College Teaching;Reflective Judgment andAssertive Behavior in Crew Resource Management: A Theoretical Approach; Aviation Safety as a Function of Pilot Experience: Rationale or Rationalization?

Volume 6 Number 1 - Fall 1995: Fm:Battle 2000: The New Jet Entrants Versus rhe Regional Partners?; Study of Demand for Light, Primary Training Aircraft in Collegiate Aviation; The Bootstrap Approoch to Predicting Airplone Flight Perfrmance; Should Collegesand UniversitiesDevelop Special Alcohol Education and Rehabilitation Programs for Flight Students?

Volume 6 Number 2 -Winter 1996: Editorial: The Corporate Aviation Management Committee (CAMC): A New Academic Partnershipfor Aviation; Fm: A Perspective on the Role ofAfrican-Americans in Aviation;Forum: Transfer of WooaYFabric Structures Concepts to Composite Structures Processes; Fonnn: The Blue Box: Solo; The Edwardr Personal Preference Schedule as a Predictor ofSuccess in a Collegiate Professional Pilot Training Program; A Framework for Assessing the Role of Aircraji Technology in Enhancing System Capacity.

Volume 6 Number 3 -Spring 1996: Editorial;Faculty Professional Development Imperatives in Collegiate Aviation Education;Determination ofcurriculum Content for a Non-Engineering Doctoral Degree in Aviation.

Page 64 JAAER, Winter 2005 BACK ISSUES, cont.

Volume 7 Number I - Fall 19%: Toward an International Model of Crew Resource Management: The Cultural Implications; Educational Course and Curriculum Needs for Corporate Aviation Managers;A Review of History, Structure, and Competition in the U.S. Airline Indushy.

Volume 7 Number 2 - Winter 1997: Forum: Aviation Science? Collegiate Aviation? Aeronautics? Aerospace Science? Introducing Aeronology in Resolving Identity Issues; Forum: Education Tailor-Madefor the Times;Forum: Anson Burlingame: Dipl~mat,Orator; Aviation English: An Introduction.

Volume 7 Number 3 - Spring 1997: Aviation Industry Employment Data Estimates Revisited; Eflecfs of PC-Based Pretraining on Pilots' Peflomance in an Approved Flight-Training Device; Medical Problems in Commercial Flight: Shortage of Airport Medical Facilities. 1

Volume 8 Number 1 - Fall 1997: Forum: The Development of the Flying Wing; Forum: Professionalism and the Corporate Culture of Aviation Education; Forwn: Beyond 2000: The Undiscovered Frontier of a Career as an Aviation Professor;Shrdent and lnstrucror Perceptions of Efective Instructional Methodr in a UniversityAviation Human Factors Course; Teaching Londings by the Numbers: Quanti&ing the Visual Approach and hnding;Beyond the Classroom with 5)stem Safety.

Volume 8 Number 2 -Winter 1998: Fm.Would An ACES Academy Bemyit Your University?;Forum: Inclusion of Modem CompositesTechnologyInto a Federal Aviation Administration Airjiame and Powerplant Curriculum; Forum: Denver International Airport: Lessons Learned ;A Pioneering University- Airline Flight Inter-nship Program; Establishing A Total Safely Culture; The General Aviation Revitalization Act of 1994: An Overview of Tort Reform.

Volume 8 Number 3 Spring 1999 Forum: The Aircraft Engine: An HistoricalPerspectiveof Engine Development Through World War I; Forum: The Political Motivation of Airline Deregulation; Recruiting on the Outside: Action-Oriented Research Solutions to External Student Recruitment in Collegiate Aviation Education; The Airline Maintenance Mechanic Educational Infrastructure: Supply, Demand, and Evolving lndushy Structure; CRM A Literature Review.

Volume9 Number 1 -Fall 1999: Forum: Tech "Knowledge"yAnxiety,Fom: Night VFR:An Oxymoron?;Forum: The Benefits of Experience in the Classroom; Interpersonal Skills in Aviation: Applications and Development; Is Free Flight A Reality or Myth?; A Model of "Applied Ethics" in Aviation Safety: The Aviation Reporting System.

Volume 9 Number 2 -Winter 2000: Forum: High Speed Civil Transportation;Forum: Aviation Students in Industry: Strategies T'tEnhance Learning;Forum: Air Trafic Control CTI Program; Pilot Education: The Beginnings; A Comparison of the Eflectiveness of PC-Based Aviation Training Devices and Conventional Flight Training Devices for Instrument Flight Training; Collegiate Aviation Maintenance Programs: Focus on Quality or Safety?

Volume 9 Number 3 Spring 2000: Forum: Death of Eastern: How One Man Destroyed an Airline; Forurn: Suspected Unapproved Parts in the Aviation Industry: Consideration of System Safety; With Thor Across the Heavens; Developing Future Aviation Leaders: Advice From To* S Leaders!; The Scope and Status of the Fixed Base Operator/General Aviation Service Indushy in Illinois; Integrated Airline Organizational Frameworks and Crew Resource Management Eflectiveness.

Volume 10 Number I -Fall 2000: Forum: Fasten Your Seatbelts; Forum: Gender Diflerences in an Aviation Physiology Environment; Voice Recognition in Fighter Aircrajl; Toward the Zero Accident Goal: Assisting the First Oficer Monitor andChatlenge Captain Errors; The Development of a Job Performance Aid Design Model For Use in Aviation.

Vdume 10 Number 2 -Winter 2001: Fom: Group Learning in Technical Courses ;Forum: The Benefits of Professional and Youth Art in an Airport Community;Identifying the Probability of an Accident Occurring with Suspected UnapprovedParts as a ContributingFactor; WeatheringEfects On Selected Aircrafr Covering Processes; The Evolution of Fractional Ownership: A Literature Review.

Volume 10 Number 3 Spring 2001: Forum: The PCATDS Role in the Cognitive Processes of Flight Training ;Controlled Flight Into Tewain; Case Study of a Fourth Generation MRM Program at a Corporate Aviation Operator ;Aviation, Herbert Hoover and His "AmericanPlan".

JAAER, Winter 2005 Page 65 BACK ISSUES, cont.

Volume 11 Number 1 -Fall 2001: Fm:Yield Management; Forum: Professional Ethics in Engineering: The Challenger and Corporate Culture; Accreditation of Collegiate Aviation's Distance Education Programs: Now and in the Future; A Comparison of the Learning Styles of Aviation and Non- Aviation College Students; Arriving at Consensus: AirportlAviation Administration Advice Provided to Airport Managers by State Aeronautic Agencies..

Volume 11 Number 2 -Winter 2002: Fm:Incorporating Green Design Into Teaching Aircrafi Preliminaty Design; Forum: An Investigation of Different Modeling Techniques For Autonomous Robot Navigation; Turbulence and Its Impact on Commercial Aviation; General Aviation Lunding Flare Instructions; Collegiate Flight Training Programs: In Seqrch of Cognitive Growth.

Vdume 11 Number 3 Spring 2002: Forum: A Fanciful Look at Air Carrier Operations In The Year 2050; Forum: Data Acquisition in Aviation Maintenance Training;Forum: A Quantitative Model of the Amplrfcation of Power Through Order and Implications for Defense Against Hijachngs; The Case Method: An Enhancement to Curriculum in Aviation Ma~gementCoursework; Using Applied Behavior Analysis to Complement Error Management in Crew Resource Management Education.

Volume 12 Number 1 -Fall 2002: The Editor 's Forum ;Fm: Andragogical Metho& For Teaching Advanced Cockpit Flying Skills to Professional Pilots; Forum: The Demise of Collegiate Aviation Programs With the Best oflntentions;Stress Coping Strategiesfor CommercialFlight Crewmembers;Military Versus Civilian Air Cargo Training for Hazardous Materials; The Orteig Prize

Volume 12 Number 2 -Winter 2003: The Editor's Fonun ;Forum: Improving Airline Cabin Safety; Fm:The Role of Educational Institutionsfor Airport Security; 21" Centuty Aerospace and the Power of Human Communication Skills; Aviation Opportunities in Ecotourism ;A Casefor Changing the National Airspace Systemfrom a Magnetic North to a Geographic North Model.

Volume 12 Number 3 - Spring 2003: The Editor's Forum ;Forum: How Safe is "Safe Enough? " ;Forum: A Dialogue on the Demise of Collegiate Aviation; Forum: Alternate Paradigmsfor Structuring Collegiate Flight Programs; An investigation into Factorslnfluencing Men and Womenin Becoming Professional Pilots; Collegiate Aviation and FAA Air TraBc Control Partnerships: A Review of Literature; A Evaluation of the Perceived Effectiveness of Personal Computer Aviation Training Devices for Instrument Flight Training.

Volume 13 Number 1 -Fall 2003: The Editor 's Forum ;Forum: Desirable FacultyQual$cationsas Assessed by Students in the Aeronautical Science Program at Embty-Riddle Aeronautical University ;Fm: A Safer Sky: An Exomination of Factors Affecting Flight Srudents in Taiwan; Assessing the Evolution of the Airborne Generation of Thermal Lift in Aerostats 1783 to 1883; VFR Flight into IMC: Reducing the Hazard; The Effects of an Induced Negative Mood State on Student Pilot Learning.

Volume 13 Number 2 -Winter 2004: The Editor's Forum ;Fm: Human Factors Issues of the Aircrafi Checklist; Forum: Aeromedical Issues in Diabetic Aviators; Libelle Self-contained Anti-G Ensemble: Overcoming Negative Transfer; Training Levels and Methodologies for New Technology Aircraft in Collegiate Aviation; AGATE Outcomes Analysis: Laying the Foundation for SATS.

Volume 13 Number 3 -Spring 2004: The Editor 's Forum ; Forum: Existing and Potential In-Flight Entertainment Transmission Systems- Strengths and Weaknesses;Adnption andlnnovation in Flight Training- The Benefits of Cognitive Diversity; Wanted- Quality in Airline Safety: Quality Methods and Tools are Needed to Manage New Directions;In-Flight Icing and How Airlines are Coping; The Most Valuable Aspects of an Airline Flight OperationsInternship: The Perceptions of Former Interns.

Volume 14 Number 1 -Fall 2004: The Editor's Forum ;Forum: An Overview of the Demise of NASA 's High Speed Research Program; Fm:Collision Avoidance in TraBc Patterns- Time, FIying Tush and Visual Scanning; Publishing Aviation Research: A Literature Review of Scholarly Journals; A Comparative Study of Collegiate Aviation Shrdents and Business Students Related to Myers-Briggs Type Indicator Preferences;Error and Threat Detection: A comprehensive Review and Evaluation of Current Literature.

Page 66 JAAER, Winter 2005 BACK ISSUE ORDER FORM

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