Spotlight on Iran
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The IRGC in the Age of Ebrahim Raisi: Decision-Making and Factionalism in Iran’S Revolutionary Guard
The IRGC in the Age of Ebrahim Raisi: Decision-Making and Factionalism in Iran’s Revolutionary Guard SAEID GOLKAR AUGUST 2021 KASRA AARABI Contents Executive Summary 4 The Raisi Administration, the IRGC and the Creation of a New Islamic Government 6 The IRGC as the Foundation of Raisi’s Islamic Government The Clergy and the Guard: An Inseparable Bond 16 No Coup in Sight Upholding Clerical Superiority and Preserving Religious Legitimacy The Importance of Understanding the Guard 21 Shortcomings of Existing Approaches to the IRGC A New Model for Understanding the IRGC’s Intra-elite Factionalism 25 The Economic Vertex The Political Vertex The Security-Intelligence Vertex Charting IRGC Commanders’ Positions on the New Model Shades of Islamism: The Ideological Spectrum in the IRGC Conclusion 32 About the Authors 33 Saeid Golkar Kasra Aarabi Endnotes 34 4 The IRGC in the Age of Ebrahim Raisi Executive Summary “The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps [IRGC] has excelled in every field it has entered both internationally and domestically, including security, defence, service provision and construction,” declared Ayatollah Ebrahim Raisi, then chief justice of Iran, in a speech to IRGC commanders on 17 March 2021.1 Four months on, Raisi, who assumes Iran’s presidency on 5 August after the country’s June 2021 election, has set his eyes on further empowering the IRGC with key ministerial and bureaucratic positions likely to be awarded to guardsmen under his new government. There is a clear reason for this ambition. Expanding the power of the IRGC serves the interests of both Raisi and his 82-year-old mentor, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the supreme leader of the Islamic Republic. -
Iran's Foreign Policy Decision Making
Iran’s Foreign Policy Decision Making Visions and Divisions: Prospects for a Reorientation in Iran’s Foreign Policy • Normalizers: Integration of Iran into the International Community • Principalists: No Change in Iran’s International Posture Why we cannot make a conclusive statement on the interplay of these groups? Iran is not like any other states in terms of political system. Higher Level Greater Measure of Power & Control Normal political Struggle with systems have a finding a proper hierarchical Islamofascism definition for Democratic the Iranian Theocracy structures, similar political system to this pyramid Small Amount of Power & Control Negotiated Political Order • President •State • Government & Bureaucracy • Revolutionary Guards •Parastatals • Basij • Foundations (Bonyads) •Supreme • Rahbar’s Office Leader • Quds Force Negotiated Political Order Parastatals State • Suprem e Leader • Iran’s Foreign Policy The Position of the Various Groups Ideological Normalizers Pragmatic Principalists Normalizers Tentative normalizers What Drives Iran’s Regional Policies Five Core Factors Imperial Shiite Legacy Islam Anti Imperialis m Paranoia & Domestic Regime Politics Security Policy of Exporting Revolution What did Khomeini mean by revolutionary export? Khomeini was • Protecting Shiites Iranian equivalent of • Gaining Hegemony in Trotsky the Middle East Anti-Trotsky Camp Formed Idealist in the regime committed to exporting the Pragmatists who said revolution it’s really too much & too soon How did they want to export the revolution and to dominate over the middle east? We don’t fight ourselves The Center for Borderless plan was Security Doctrinal simple Analysis We use proxies The ideal end run and their image of the ideal expansion of the revolution and hegemony Engaging the Masses in the ME Shiite Crescent Building Ideological belt of sympathetic Expanding Shiite governments Regional & political factions in Iraq, Syria, Role&Power Lebanon, and Gulf States It happened because of a number of fortuitous breaks Israel Invasion of Lebanon 1982 Arab U.S. -
Iran: a True Security Dilemma?
1 Iran: A True Security Dilemma? The thesis of this paper is that there is a substantial basis to believe the acquisition of nuclear weapons by the Islamic Republic of Iran need not derail U.S. efforts to obtain its basic security objectives in the Middle East (e.g. the prevention of terrorism, secure corridors for the transportation of oil to global markets and progress on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict). There is no known evidence of a state giving a nuclear capability to a nonstate actor to support its national security. The paper notes that U.S. intervention in Iraq and Afghanistan precipitated Iranian reactions, including development of a nuclear weapons program, which pose challenges for international security. These developments enhance the strength of the Iranian regime against certain threats like the use of conventional military power. Using theories developed by proponents of the school of realism in international relations policy, the paper proceeds to show that the U.S. can still pursue its basic security goals in the region successfully. While nuclear weapons threatening U.S. interests are daunting, counter measures against them and steps to prevent proliferation are not certain to succeed. Parties involved in a conflict normally do not abandon working to secure their interests in tactical or low level actions simply because they face opposition (i.e.Taliban has continued its insurgency in Afghanistan despite U.S. state building efforts.). Accordingly, the U.S. needs to pursue balanced policy objectives in a disciplined manner while trying to mitigate the perceived risks from nuclear proliferation. This more balanced approach should be taken with Islamic Republic of Iran. -
Casusluk Faaliyetlerinde Motiflerin İncelenmesi: İran İslam Cumhuriyeti Örneği (1979-2019)
Casusluk Faaliyetlerinde Motiflerin İncelenmesi: İran İslam Cumhuriyeti Örneği (1979-2019) Muhammet Murat TEKEK1 Geliş Tarihi: 03/04/2020 Kabul Tarihi: 09/05/2020 Atıf: TEKEK.,M.Murat, “Casusluk Faaliyetlerinde Motiflerin İncelenmesi: İran İslam Cumhuriyeti Örneği (1979-2019)”, Ortadoğu Etütleri, 12-1 (2020):238-273 Öz: Bu çalışma, İran İslam Cumhuriyeti (İİC) aleyhine, 1979 yılından günümüze, İİC vatandaşlığına sahip olan ve casuslukla suçlanan kişilerin casusluk faaliyetini gerçekleştirmekteki motifleri (Motivasyon, Güdü, Saik, İtki) ile bu motiflerin şekillendiği arka planın, açık kaynaklar üzerinden, incelenmesine odaklanmıştır. Toplanan nitel verilerin incelenmesinden elde edilen bulgulardan motifler belirlenmiş ve bunlar çalışmanın sonunda bir sınıflandırmaya tabi tutularak genellemeler yapılmıştır. Sözkonusu sınıflandırma, ABD (Amerika Birleşik Devletleri) ölçeğinde yapılan mevcut bir çalışma ile karşılaştırmalı analize tabi tutulmuştur. Ayrıca casusluk faaliyetlerinin İİC tarafından nasıl tanımlandığı, yorumlandığı, ilgili mevzuatlarla hangi müeyyidelerin getirildiği, casuslukla nasıl mücadele edildiğini belirlemeyi ve tüm bunlara karşın casusluk faaliyetlerinde bulunan veya casuslukla suçlanan kişilerin motivasyonlarının neler olduğunu tespit etmeyi amaçlamaktadır. Anahtar Kelimeler: İran, Casusluk, Motif, Çifte Vatandaşlık, Yumuşak Yıkım 1 YL Öğrencisi, Polis Akademisi-TR, [email protected], ORCID:0000-0002-8985-4760 238 Analysis of Motives in Spy Activities: The Example of Islamic Republic of Iran (1979-2019) Muhammet Murat -
USAF Counterproliferation Center CPC Outreach Journal #870
USAF COUNTERPROLIFERATION CENTER CPC OUTREACH JOURNAL Maxwell AFB, Alabama Issue No. 870, 7 January 2011 Articles & Other Documents: White House Contradicts Russian Duma Official on China Will Not Strike First with Nuclear Weapons: FM Linkage Between Missile Defense and START China Hiding Military Build-Up: Cable Arms Treaty Would Not Affect Nuke Plans, Russia Says India to Test High-Altitude Missiles Soon Russian Parliament Drafts Five Amendments to New Arms Pact India Wants to Extend Range of Nuke-Capable Missile Senior Russian MP Says New Start Better for Russia Russian Missile Defense than U.S. Flirting with Disaster Iranian Nuclear Scientist 'Tortured on Suspicion of Revealing State Secrets' Nuclear Detection Office Delivers Strategic Plan to Capitol Hill U.S. Memo: Iranian Hard-Liners Blocked Nuke Deal Why China‘s Missiles Matter to Us Iran Vows to Boost Missile Arsenal Washington Watch: Does Ahmadinejad Have a Saddam Mossad Chief: Iran Won't Go Nuclear Before 2015 Complex? EU to Turn Down Iran's Invitation to Nuclear Sites Raging Conflicts China Military Eyes Preemptive Nuclear Attack in Event US Has Always Treated Pakistan Unfairly of Crisis Welcome to the CPC Outreach Journal. As part of USAF Counterproliferation Center’s mission to counter weapons of mass destruction through education and research, we’re providing our government and civilian community a source for timely counterproliferation information. This information includes articles, papers and other documents addressing issues pertinent to US military response options for dealing with chemical, biological, radiological, and nuclear (CBRN) threats and countermeasures. It’s our hope this information resource will help enhance your counterproliferation issue awareness. -
Attacks Against the Iranian Nuclear Program
OEA Team Threat Report G-2 G-2 Title Attacks Against the Iranian Date Nuclear Program 15 February 2012 US Army TRADOC G2 TRADOC Intelligence Support Activity (TRISA) – Threats Dr. Majid Shahriari’s car after the attack1 Publication Date: 15 February 2012 US Army TRADOC G2 Information Cut-Off Date: 25 January 2012 TRADOC Intelligence Support Activity (TRISA) – Threats 1 U.S. UNCLASSIFIED U.S. UNCLASSIFIED OEA Team Threat Report G-2 Purpose To inform readers of the locations of Iran’s six major nuclear sites To inform deploying units, trainers, and scenario writers of the attacks and accidents that have plagued the Iranian nuclear program over the past 12 years To identify the various tactics, techniques, and procedures (TTP) used to assassinate scientists associated with the Iranian nuclear program To identify other methods used to damage the Iranian nuclear program over the past 12 years Product Caveat: This presentation has been developed from multiple unclassified sources and is primarily intended for use as a training product for the Department of Army. This briefing should not be considered a finished intelligence product, nor used in such a manner. 2 U.S. UNCLASSIFIED OEA Team Threat Report G-2 Executive Summary Provides a map of the location of Iran’s 6 major nuclear sites Presents a timeline of the accidents, attacks, and assassinations associated with the Iranian nuclear programs since 2001 Provides information on the assassination or the attempts on the lives of scientists and other negative incidents associated with the Iranian nuclear program Includes civilian experts’ speculation about the actor or actors involved with the attempts to derail the Iranian nuclear program Provides additional negative events in Iran that may or may not be associated with its nuclear program 3 U.S. -
U.S. and Iranian Strategic Competition
Iran V: Sanctions Competition January 4, 2013 0 U.S. AND IRANIAN STRATEGIC COMPETITION Sanctions, Energy, Arms Control, and Regime Change Anthony H. Cordesman, Bryan Gold, Sam Khazai, and Bradley Bosserman April 19, 2013 Anthony H. Cordesman Arleigh A. Burke Chair in Strategy [email protected] Note: This report is will be updated. Please provide comments and suggestions to [email protected] Iran V: Sanctions Competition April, 19 2013 I Executive Summary This report analyzes four key aspects of US and Iranian strategic competition - sanctions, energy, arms control, and regime change. Its primary focus is on the ways in which the sanctions applied to Iran have changed US and Iranian competition since the fall of 2011. This escalation has been spurred by the creation of a series of far stronger US unilateral sanctions and the EU‘s imposition of equally strong sanctions – both of which affect Iran‘s ability to export, its financial system and its overall economy. It has been spurred by Iran‘s ongoing missile deployments and nuclear program, as reported in sources like the November 2011 IAEA report that highlights the probable military dimensions of Iran‘s nuclear program. And, by Iranian rhetoric, by Iranian threats to ―close‖ the Gulf to oil traffic; increased support of the Quds Force and pro-Shiite governments and non-state actors; and by incidents like the Iranian-sponsored assassination plot against the Saudi Ambassador to the US, an Iranian government instigated mob attack on the British Embassy in Tehran on November 30, 2011, and the Iranian-linked attacks against Israeli diplomats. -
Khomeinism April 2020
Khomeinism April 2020 1 Table of Contents Ideology ......................................................................................................................................................... 3 Governing ...................................................................................................................................................... 4 Khomeinism Abroad ...................................................................................................................................... 5 Conclusion ..................................................................................................................................................... 6 2 Khomeinism Khomeinism is an ideology and a system of governance derived from Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, leader of Iran’s 1979 Islamic Revolution. Khomeini was such a singular figure that the U.S. government assessed the revolution would not have taken place without him. This piece will discuss Khomeinism’s ideology, governance structure, and influence abroad. Ideology The Islamic Republic’s founding father was a rebel within the Shiite clerical establishment. Khomeini departed from the quietists among Iran’s clerical establishment who argued against clerical involvement in daily governance. He advocated for a more active role for clerics in the ship of state, once dubbing the quietists “court mullahs.” To demonstrate Khomeini’s extreme views on the proper Islamic governing model, the Central Intelligence Agency once cited a Western scholar in one of its assessments, -
Maximilian Terhalle
TERHALLE: ARE THE SHIA RISING? ARE THE SHIA RISING? Maximilian Terhalle Dr. Terhalle serves as an expert on the Gulf region with the German Army. This essay reflects entirely his own opinions. The author would like to thank Professor Gregory Gause (University of Vermont) for reading the final draft and enriching the assessment. n an article published in The Persian Gulf6 — has become more promi- Washington Post on November 29, nent in the last six years due to three 2006, a security adviser to King interwoven developments. Abdullah of Saudi Arabia stressed the The first is the strengthening of Iran’s I geopolitical position after the fall of the inevitable necessity for a “massive Saudi intervention”1 to shield the kingdom’s Sunni Taliban and Saddam Hussein and its brethren against any Shia-supported attempt to diversify its bilateral relations in expulsion should Iraq split up. Even though the Gulf afterwards. The second is the Nawaf Obaid was dismissed shortly increase in Shia awareness, precipitated by afterwards, presumably for his boldness, the U.S. democratization plans, in countries his words reflected the king’s use of the where major parts of the populations are term “Shia crescent” renewed during the followers of Ali (Shiat Ali).7 The third is visit of Vice President Cheney last Novem- the decline of U.S. power in Iraq, linked to ber. Previously, Jordan’s King Abdullah and Iran’s successful defiance of international Egypt’s President Mubarak had pointed in pressure to halt its nuclear program, as the same direction. Moreover, “Iran’s well as its subsequent rhetorical hubris, nuclear ambitions”2 prompted the leaders which increasingly frightens its neighbors. -
USAF Counterproliferation Center CPC Outreach Journal #825
USAF COUNTERPROLIFERATION CENTER CPC OUTREACH JOURNAL Maxwell AFB, Alabama Issue No. 825, 13 July 2010 Articles & Other Documents: Russia's Opposition Lawmakers Rally Against "New CCS Nod For Project On Nuclear, Biological, Chemical START" Defence Kosachev Hopes US Senate Will Ratify New START 4 Arrested In S Africa With Low Radiation Device White House Hopes For START Ratification In Autumn Britain Should Rethink Nuclear Weapons Renewal – Poll Lawmaker Calls UNSC Resolution Declaration Of War Against Iran Liam Fox: Britain Could Cut Nuclear Submarines "Irrational" Iran Can't Get Nuclear Arms – Netanyahu Russia Against Placing Weapons In Space – Medvedev 'Iran Nearing Nuclear Bombs' Russia Warns Russia's New Generation S-500 Missile Defense System To Enter Service Iran Vows To Increase Enriched Uranium Stock Sixfold By 2011 Fidel Castro Returns To TV With Dire Warning Of Nuclear Conflict Revolutionary Guards Profiting From Iran Sanctions - Karroubi U.S. Details Planned Nuclear Stockpile Cut, Funding Priorities 81% Of Arab World Opposed To Iran Sanctions, Opinion Poll Shows Worldview: Keeping All The Options Open On A Nuclear Iran Iran Scientist Turns Up At Washington Mission The New START Treaty Deserves To Be Ratified N.K. Apology, Denuclearization Pledge Key To Nuclear Talks: Official National Review: Romney Had It Right At The START ANALYSIS - N.Korea's Call For Talks Hardly Comment: Cost Of Attacking Iran Underplayed Welcome By South, US Welcome to the CPC Outreach Journal. As part of USAF Counterproliferation Center’s mission to counter weapons of mass destruction through education and research, we’re providing our government and civilian community a source for timely counterproliferation information. -
Obama Is Preparing to Bomb Iran
Obama is Preparing to Bomb Iran. By Webster G. Tarpley Theme: US NATO War Agenda Global Research, August 05, 2010 In-depth Report: IRAN: THE NEXT WAR? TARPLEY.net 5 August 2010 After about two and a half years during which the danger of war between the United States and Iran was at a relatively low level, this threat is now rapidly increasing. A pattern of political and diplomatic events, military deployments, and media chatter now indicates that Anglo-American ruling circles, acting through the troubled Obama administration, are currently gearing up for a campaign of bombing against Iran, combined with special forces incursions designed to stir up rebellions among the non-Persian nationalities of the Islamic Republic. Naturally, the probability of a new fake Gulf of Tonkin incident or false flag terror attack staged by the Anglo-American war party and attributed to Iran or its proxies is also growing rapidly. The moment in the recent past when the US came closest to attacking Iran was August- September 2007, at about the time of the major Israeli bombing raid on Syria.1 This was the phase during which the Cheney faction in effect hijacked a fully loaded B-52 bomber equipped with six nuclear-armed cruise missiles, and attempted to take it to the Middle East outside of the command and control of the Pentagon, presumably to be used in a colossal provocation designed by the private rogue network for which Cheney was the visible face. A few days before the B-52 escaped control of legally constituted US authorities, a group of antiwar activists issued The Kennebunkport Warning of August 24-25, 2007, which had been drafted by the present writer.2 It was very significant that US institutional forces acted at that time to prevent the rogue B-52 from proceeding on its way towards the Middle East. -
Conceptualizing the Sunni-Shi'i Encounter in the Modern Period
ISN ETH Zurich international relationS and SeCurity network ConCeptualizing the Sunni-Shi’i enCounter in the modern period Eidgenössische Technische Hochschule Zürich Swiss Federal Institute of Technology Zurich international relationS and SeCurity network ConCeptualizing the Sunni-Shi’i enCounter in the modern period Dr. Neguin Yavari Photograph used with permission from Reuters. TABLE OF CONTENTS Church and state in Islam ..............................................................................................4 Ayatollah Khomeini on the authority of jurists ..........................................................4 Autonomous political authority ...................................................................................5 Symbiosis .........................................................................................................................6 Confluence .......................................................................................................................8 Endnotes ........................................................................................................................10 Bibliography ...................................................................................................................11 About the author ...........................................................................................................13 International Relations and Security Network (ISN) © 2008 ISN Conceptualizing the Sunni-Shi’i Encounter in the Modern Period CHURCh AND STATE IN iSLAM religious