Assessing the Domestic Roles of Iran's Islamic

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Assessing the Domestic Roles of Iran's Islamic THE ARTS This PDF document was made available CHILD POLICY from www.rand.org as a public service of CIVIL JUSTICE the RAND Corporation. EDUCATION ENERGY AND ENVIRONMENT Jump down to document6 HEALTH AND HEALTH CARE INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS The RAND Corporation is a nonprofit NATIONAL SECURITY research organization providing POPULATION AND AGING PUBLIC SAFETY objective analysis and effective SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY solutions that address the challenges SUBSTANCE ABUSE facing the public and private sectors TERRORISM AND HOMELAND SECURITY around the world. 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RAND monographs present major research findings that address the challenges facing the public and private sectors. All RAND mono- graphs undergo rigorous peer review to ensure high standards for research quality and objectivity. The Rise of the Pasdaran Assessing the Domestic Roles of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps Frederic Wehrey, Jerrold D. Green, Brian Nichiporuk, Alireza Nader, Lydia Hansell, Rasool Nafisi, S. R. Bohandy Prepared for the Office of the Secretary of Defense Approved for public release; distribution unlimited NATIONAL DEFENSE RESEARCH INSTITUTE The research described in this report was prepared for the Office of the Secretary of Defense (OSD). The research was conducted in the RAND National Defense Research Institute, a federally funded research and development center sponsored by the OSD, the Joint Staff, the Unified Combatant Commands, the Department of the Navy, the Marine Corps, the defense agencies, and the defense Intelligence Community under Contract W74V8H-06-C-0002. Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data is available for this publication. ISBN 978-0-8330-4620-8 The RAND Corporation is a nonprofit research organization providing objective analysis and effective solutions that address the challenges facing the public and private sectors around the world. RAND’s publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions of its research clients and sponsors. R® is a registered trademark. © Copyright 2009 RAND Corporation Permission is given to duplicate this document for personal use only, as long as it is unaltered and complete. Copies may not be duplicated for commercial purposes. Unauthorized posting of RAND documents to a non-RAND Web site is prohibited. RAND documents are protected under copyright law. For information on reprint and linking permissions, please visit the RAND permissions page (http://www.rand.org/publications/permissions.html). Published 2009 by the RAND Corporation 1776 Main Street, P.O. Box 2138, Santa Monica, CA 90407-2138 1200 South Hayes Street, Arlington, VA 22202-5050 4570 Fifth Avenue, Suite 600, Pittsburgh, PA 15213-2665 RAND URL: http://www.rand.org To order RAND documents or to obtain additional information, contact Distribution Services: Telephone: (310) 451-7002; Fax: (310) 451-6915; Email: [email protected] Preface The purpose of this research is to assess the broad-ranging domes- tic roles of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC), also known as the Pasdaran (Persian for “Guards”), to determine the full scope of its influence over Iran’s political culture, economy, and soci- ety. The study analyzed the institution’s ideological outreach to the Iranian populace through education, training, and media; its ascen- dancy in Iran’s strategic business sectors; and its role in Iran’s factional- ized political landscape. The research team paid particular attention to instances in which the IRGC’s ascendancy has provoked dissent from certain population segments, as well as cases in which it has mobilized and broadened its circle of constituents. This monograph concludes by offering potential trajectories for the IRGC’s involvement in Iranian politics, as well as its own institutional evolution, which appears to be increasingly beset by factionalism. In addition, the document outlines a future research agenda for the study of the IRGC that draws com- parative insights from analyses of the Pakistani and Chinese militaries. This research should be of interest to analysts and policymakers con- cerned with Iranian domestic politics and strategic behavior, as well as those interested, more broadly, in comparative studies of civil-military relations. This research was conducted within the Intelligence Policy Center of the RAND National Defense Research Institute, a federally funded research and development center sponsored by the Office of the Secre- tary of Defense, the Joint Staff, the Unified Combatant Commands, iii iv Assessing the Domestic Roles of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps the Department of the Navy, the Marine Corps, the defense agencies, and the defense Intelligence Community. For more information on RAND’s Intelligence Policy Center, contact the Director, John Parachini. He can be reached by email at [email protected]; by phone at 703-413-1100, extension 5579; or by mail at the RAND Corporation, 1200 South Hayes Street, Arlington, Virginia 22202-5050. More information about RAND is available at www.rand.org. Contents Preface ............................................................................. iii Figures ............................................................................. ix Summary .......................................................................... xi Acknowledgments .............................................................. xix Abbreviations .................................................................... xxi CHAPTER ONE Introduction ....................................................................... 1 CHAPTER TWO The IRGC in Context: Iran’s Security and Political Landscape ......... 7 The IRGC in Iran’s Security Hierarchy ......................................... 8 Iran’s Factional Landscape .......................................................13 CHAPTER THREE The IRGC’s Diverse Domestic Roles: Origins and Evolution ...........19 Postrevolutionary Developments: Consolidating Internal Control ........ 20 The Sacred Defense: The IRGC in the Iran-Iraq War ....................... 23 “Popularizing” the IRGC: The Development of the Basij Resistance Force ...........................................................................25 The Guardians of the Revolution: The IRGC’s Domestic Intelligence and Security Roles ...........................................................29 The Merger of Basij and IRGC: A Sign of the Regime’s Growing Entrenchment ................................................................32 v vi Assessing the Domestic Roles of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps CHAPTER FOUR Militarizing Civil Society: The IRGC’s Indoctrination, Training, and Media Activities .......................................................35 The IRGC’s Ideological Activism: Origins and Development ...............35 The IRGC Presence in Iran’s Education System .............................. 38 The “Ten-Million-Man Army”: The IRGC’s Role in Popular Paramilitary Training ....................................................... 44 Increasing the Basij’s Capability to Conduct Asymmetric Homeland Defense ......................................................................45 Disaster-Relief Training ........................................................47 Protection Against Soft Coups ................................................47 Additional Cultural Education ............................................... 48 The IRGC Media Apparatus: Formal and Informal Influences .............49 Censorship of Independent Media Outlets ....................................53 CHAPTER FIVE Economic Expansion: The IRGC’s Business Conglomerate and Public Works ................................................................55 Origins of the IRGC’s Economic Activities ................................... 56 Foundations (Bonyads) ...........................................................57 Construction, Engineering, and Manufacturing Companies................59 Illicit and Black Market Activities ............................................. 64 Public Works ...................................................................... 66 The Dilemmas of Economic Expansion ........................................70 CHAPTER SIX The IRGC in Politics ........................................................... 77 The Origins of the IRGC as a Political Force ................................. 77 Ideological Factionalism Inside the IRGC .....................................81 Possible Future Scenarios for the IRGC ........................................89 Scenario 1: The Evolving Role of the Supreme Leader and the Eventual Succession to Khamenei .......................................89
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