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Kecenderungan Elektabilitas Calon Gubernur Dan Efeknya Terhadap Pilpres Di 3 Provinsi Terbesar

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Kecenderungan Elektabilitas Calon Gubernur Dan Efeknya Terhadap Pilpres Di 3 Provinsi Terbesar KECENDERUNGAN ELEKTABILITAS CALON GUBERNUR DAN EFEKNYA TERHADAP PILPRES DI 3 PROVINSI TERBESAR Temuan Survei 21 Mei – 1 Juni 2018 Jl. Kusumaatmaja No. 59, Menteng, Jakarta Pusat 10340 [email protected] | www.saifulmujani.com Latar Belakang } Pemilihan gubernur-wakil gubernur di Jawa Barat, Jawa Tengah, dan Jawa Timur masih beberapa waktu lagi (27 Juni 2018). } Bagaimanakah kecenderungan dukungan warga terhadap calon-calon gubernur dan wakil gubernur di masing-masing provinsi, setidaknya bila pilkada diadakan pada waktu survei dilakukan? } Apa saja faktor-faktor yang terkait dengan dukungan tersebut? } Untuk menjawab pertanyaan-pertanyaan tersebut, SMRC telah melakukan survei terhadap warga di tiga provinsi tersebut pada kurun waktu berikut: ◦ Survei Provinsi Jawa Barat : 22 Mei – 1 Juni 2018 . ◦ Survei Provinsi Jawa Tengah : 23 - 30 Mei 2018 ◦ Survei Provinsi Jawa Timur : 21 – 29 Mei 2018 Prov Jawa Barat (Mei-Juni 2018) 2 Metodologi • Populasi survei ini adalah seluruh warga negara Indonesia di Provinsi Jawa Barat, Jawa Tengah, dan Jawa Timur, yang punya hak pilih dalam pemilihan umum, yakni mereka yang sudah berumur 17 tahun atau lebih, atau sudah menikah ketika survei dilakukan. • Dalam survei ini jumlah sampel di masing-masing Provinsi sebanyak 820 orang. Sampel dipilih dengan metode multistage random sampling dengan jumlah proporsional. Toleransi kesalahan (margin of error) survei di masing-masing provinsi diperkirakan ±3,5% pada tingkat kepercayaan 95 persen, asumsi simple random sampling. • Responden terpilih diwawancarai lewat tatap muka oleh pewawancara yang telah dilatih. • Quality control terhadap hasil wawancara dilakukan secara random sebesar 20% dari total sampel oleh supervisor dengan kembali mendatangi responden terpilih (spot check). Dalam quality control tidak ditemukan kesalahan berarti. Prov Jawa Barat (Mei-Juni 2018) 3 Flow Chart Penarikan Sampel Populasi desa/kelurahan tingkat Provinsi Kab 1 Kab k Desa/kelurahan di tingkat … Kab/Kota dipilih secara random dengan … jumlah proporsional Ds 1 … Ds m Ds 1 … Ds n RT1 RT2 RT3 …. RT5 Di setiap desa/kelurahan dipilih sebanyak 5 RT dengan cara random Di masing-masing RT/Lingkungan KK1 KK2 dipilih secara random dua KK Di KK terpilih dipilih secara random Laki-laki Perempuan Satu orang yang punya hak pilih laki-laki/perempuan Prov Jawa Barat (Mei-Juni 2018) 4 JAWA BARAT Profil Demografi Sampel KATEGORI POPULASI SAMPEL Gender Laki-laki 51.4 50.4 Perempuan 48.6 49.6 Desa-Kota Pedesaan 35.3 35.8 Perkotaan 64.7 64.2 Agama Islam 96.7 97.5 Lainnya 3.3 2.5 Etnis Sunda 71.9 71.9 Jawa 13.3 13.3 Bet awi 6.2 6.2 Cirebon 4.2 4.2 Lainnya 4.4 4.4 Prov Jawa Barat (Mei-Juni 2018) 6 Profil Demografi Sampel KATEGORI POPULASI SAMPEL KATEGORI POPULASI SAMPEL WILAYAH WILAYAH DAPIL 1 6.3 6.6 DAPIL 10 7.1 7.4 Kot a Bandung 5.1 5.3 Kab Karawang 5.1 4.8 Kot a Cimahi 1.2 1.3 Kab Purwakart a 2.0 2.5 DAPIL 2 7.4 7.6 DAPIL 11 9.0 8.9 Kab Bandung 7.4 7.6 Kab Majalengka 2.9 2.5 DAPIL 3 3.6 3.8 Kab Subang 3.5 3.9 Kab Bandung Barat 3.6 3.8 Kab Sumedang 2.5 2.5 DAPIL 4 5.1 5.1 DAPIL 12 10.3 10.5 Kab Cianjur 5.1 5.1 Kab Cirebon 5.3 4.0 DAPIL 5 6.1 6.3 Kab Indramayu 4.3 5.3 Kab Sukabumi 5.4 5.1 Kot a Cirebon 0.7 1.1 Kot a Sukabumi 0.7 1.3 DAPIL 13 6.8 7.6 DAPIL 6 10.0 9.7 Kab Ciamis 2.8 2.5 Kab Bogor 10.0 9.7 Kab Kuningan 2.6 2.5 DAPIL 7 2.1 2.8 Kab Pangandaran 0.9 1.3 Kot a Bogor 2.1 2.8 Kot a Banjar 0.4 1.3 DAPIL 8 9.1 7.2 DAPIL 14 5.5 6.3 Kot a Bekasi 5.3 4.3 Kab Garut 5.5 6.3 Kot a Depok 3.8 2.9 DAPIL 15 5.5 5.1 DAPIL 9 6.3 5.2 Kab T asikmalaya 4.1 3.8 Kab Bekasi 6.3 5.2 Kot a T asikmalaya 1.4 1.3 Prov Jawa Barat (Mei-Juni 2018) 7 Top of Mind: Pilihan Kepada Calon Gubernur Seandainya pemilihan langsung Gubernur Jawa Barat dilaksanakan sekarang ini, siapa yang akan Ibu/Bapak pilih sebagai Gubernur?... (%) H. Mochamad Ridwan Kamil, ST., M.U.D 19.3 H. Deddy Mizwar, SE., S.SN., M.I.Pol 9.8 Mayjen TNI (Purn.) H. Sudrajat, M.PA 2.2 Mayjen TNI (Purn.) Dr. H. Hasanuddin, SE., MM 1.9 H. Dedi Mulyadi, SH 1.4 H. Ahmad Syaikhu 1.1 Irjen. Pol (Purn.) Dr. Drs. H. Anton Charliyan, M.P.K.N. 0.3 H. UU Ruzhanul Ulum, SE 0.3 Welly 0.1 Prabowo Subianto 0.1 Joko Widodo 0.1 Bima Arya 0.1 Ahmad Heryawan 0.1 TT/TJ/rahasia 63.1 0 20 40 60 80 100 Sekitar 63,1% warga belum dapat menyebutkan calon yang akan didukung sebagai Gubernur secara spontan. M. Ridwan Kamil paling tinggi dukungannya 19,3%, disusul Deddy Mizwar 9,8%, Sudrajat 2.2%, serta TB Hasanuddin 1.9%. Nama lain dukungannya kurang dari 1.5%. Prov Jawa Barat (Mei-Juni 2018) 8 Pilihan kepada Pasangan Gubernur (Simulasi Kertas Suara) Berikut adalah nama-nama pasangan calon gubernur-wakil gubernur Provinsi Jawa Barat. Kalau pemilihan gubernur- wakil gubernur diadakan sekarang ini, coba ibu/bapak coblos dengan jelas yang akan ibu/bapak pilih? Ibu/bapak boleh pergi sebentar, atau saya tinggal sebentar, ketika ibu/bapak mencoblos salah satu dari kartu suara ini. Kalau ibu/bapak sudah mencoblos, tolong masukan lagi ke amplop ini ATAU ditutup kembali surat suaranya... (%) 100 80 60 43.1 40 34.1 20 6.5 7.9 8.4 0 H. Mochamad Mayjen TNI Mayjen TNI H. Deddy Mizwar, Tidak Ridwan Kamil, (Purn.) Dr. H. (Purn.) H. SE., S.SN., M.I.Pol tahu/rahasia ST., M.U.D dan H. Hasanuddin, SE., Sudrajat, M.PA dan H. Dedi UU Ruzhanul Ulum MM dan Irjen. Pol dan H. Ahmad Mulyadi, SH (Purn.) Dr. Drs. H. Syaikhu Anton Charliyan, M.P.K.N. Dalam pilihan terhadap pasangan, M Ridwan Kamil-Uu Ruzhanul Ulum mendapat dukungan 43,1%, disusul Deddy Mizwar-Dedi Mulyadi 34,1%, Sudrajat-Ahmad Syaikhu 7,9%, dan TB Hasanuddin-Anton Charliyan 6,5%. Yang belum tahu sekitar 8,4%. Prov Jawa Barat (Mei-Juni 2018) 9 Tren Pilihan kepada Pasangan Calon 50 47.2 43.7 M Ridwan Kamil-Uu 43.1 Ruzhanul Ulum 40 35.3 Deddy Mizwar-Dedi Mulyadi 34.1 30 30.7 Sudrajat-Ahmad Syaikhu 20 18.2 TB Hasanuddin-Anton Charliyan 10.8 8.4 10 7.9 6.5 TT/TJ/rahasia 5.4 4.6 2.8 1.2 0 Feb 2018 Mar 2018 22 Mei - 1 Jun 2018 Dalam 3-4 bulan terakhir (Februari ke Mei-Juni), dukungan pada Ridwan Kamil-UU cenderung menurun. Pasangan Deddy Mizwar-Dedi Mulyadi juga tidak banyak mengalami kemajuan dalam 3-4 bulan terakhir. Sementara itu elektabilitas pasangan Sudrajat-Syaikhu dan TB Hasanuddin-Anton cenderung naik. Prov Jawa Barat (Mei-Juni 2018) 10 Alasan Memilih Calon (% kolom) Jelaskan alasan UTAMA memilih nama tersebut sebagai Gubernur/Wakil Gubernur? ... (%) Base: Responden yang memilih calon Pasangan Mayjen TNI H. Mochamad (Purn.) Dr. H. Mayjen TNI H. Deddy Ridwan Kamil, Hasanuddin, SE., (Purn.) H. Mizwar, SE., Alasan ST., M.U.D dan MM dan Irjen. Pol Sudrajat, M.PA S.SN., M.I.Pol H. UU (Purn.) Dr. Drs. H. dan H. Ahmad dan H. Dedi Ruzhanul Anton Charliyan, Syaikhu Mulyadi, SH Ulum, SE M.P.K.N. Sudah ada bukti nyata hasil kerjanya 31 0 6 15 Berpengalaman di Pemerintahan 15 2 3 18 Orangnya perhatian pada rakyat 10 6 6 14 Belum tahu nama/calon lain 7 11 3 15 Orangnya jujur/bersih dari praktek KKN 6 7 12 9 Putra daerah JAWA BARAT 8 8 6 4 Ikut pilihan orang lain/keluarga/warga sekitar 4 17 0 4 Orangnya pintar/berpendidikan 4 0 7 3 Berasal dari partai yang saya dukung 0 8 14 2 Orangnya tegas 1 3 9 2 Tokoh agama 1 0 11 1 Berasal dari keluarga tokoh politik/masyarakat 1 0 1 2 Tokoh partai politik 0 6 5 1 Anjuran kyai/pemuka agama di daerah sini 1 0 3 0 Ada hubungan keluarga 0 0 0 0 Lainnya 4 24 6 6 TT/TJ 6 8 7 4 Prov Jawa Barat (Mei-Juni 2018) 11 Kemungkinan Mengubah Pilihan Seberapa besar kemungkinan Ibu/Bapak mengubah pilihan tersebut?… (%) Base: Responden yang memilih Pasangan Calon Gubernur dan Wakil Gubernur 100 75 50 42 23 26 25 7 2 0 Sangat besar Cukup besar Kecil Sangat kecil atau TT/TJ kemungkinannya kemungkinannya kemungkinannya hampir tidak mungkin Sekitar 30% dari pendukung calon masih besar kemungkinan mengubah pilihan (pendukung lemah). Provinsi Jabar (Mei-Juni 2018) 12 Stabilitas Dukungan Pendukung kuat Pendukung lemah 100 31 25 80 36 35 60 40 75 69 64 65 20 0 H. Mochamad Ridwan Kamil, Mayjen TNI (Purn.) Dr. H. Mayjen TNI (Purn.) H. H. Deddy Mizwar, SE., S.SN., ST., M.U.D dan H. UU Hasanuddin, SE., MM dan Sudrajat, M.PA dan H. M.I.Pol dan H. Dedi Mulyadi, Ruzhanul Ulum Irjen. Pol (Purn.) Dr. Drs. H. Ahmad Syaikhu SH Anton Charliyan, M.P.K.N. Dukungan kepada Sudrajat-Syaikhu paling stabil. Provinsi Jabar (Mei-Juni 2018) 13 Popularitas Calon Tahu atau pernah dengar nama-nama tokoh berikut? Jika tahu atau pernah dengar, apakah suka?…(%) 91 Deddy Mizwar 83 79 M Ridwan Kamil 86 49 Dedi Mulyadi 75 29 UU Ruzhanul Ulum 75 28 Sudrajat 56 25 TB Hasanuddin 56 20 Ahmad Syaikhu Tahu 57 Suka (dari 16 Anton Charliyan yang tahu) 53 0 25 50 75 100 Deddy Mizwar adalah calon yang paling populer, dikenal oleh sekitar 91% warga Jawa Barat.
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