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Tak Sing Alliance (126.HK) LASH F I C E A A subsidiary of ICBC 15 June 2007 OTE N Tak Sing Alliance (126.HK) LASH F Sizeable project pushes up values Tak Sing rides on the China property market rally by developing the “Material City” in Shenzhen, offering a one-stop solution for manufacturers locating industrial materials. As phase I of the Key Data project received strong responses on leasing, Tak Sing now expands the same concept to other cities. The company also Price HK$3.83 acquired a large residential/commercial project in Hunan, which Not Rated is of a scale adequate for its development needs in the next 52W High HK$3.97 decade, offering room for growth. 52W Low HK$0.35 Mkt. Cap. (HK$mn) 3,822 Tak Sing Alliance possesses two valuable assets: Mkt. Cap. (US$mn) 490 Total Issued Share (mn) 998 Avg. 3mths t/o (HK$mn) 15 1. a 20% stake in South China City in Shenzhen with an attributable GFA Source: Bloomberg, ICEA Estimates about 397k sq.m. 2. a 75% stake in a 3mn-sq.m. property project in Yiyang City, Hunan. Shareholdings Structure These two assets, along with upcoming projects, helped the Company’s share price rocket more than 10x for the past year. The Ma Family 63.96% Public float 36.04% Source: HKEX Total Per share Tak Sing NAV HK$mn HK$ China South City (page 2) 2,116 2.12 Yiyang property project DCF 1,328 1.33 Investment property (book value at 30 Sep 06) 986 0.99 Other businesses (5x of FY05/06 segmental profits) 200 0.20 Price performance Net Debt (as of 30 Sep 06) (435) (0.44) HK$ mn 5.0 60 Estimated NAV 4,195 4.20 4.0 50 Source: ICEA estimates 40 Note: 1. the above calculation does not include any appreciation potential from its three new projects in 3.0 30 Dongguan, Nan Chang and Lian Yun Gang 2.0 2. We assume Rmb:HK$ at 1:1 basis 20 1.0 10 0.0 0 6/06 9/06 12/06 3/07 6/07 Relative price performance vs mid-sized developers Price 1 mth 3 mth 6 mth 1 yr Volume (RHS) Ticker Company name HK$ chg % chg % chg % chg % Tak Sing Alliance (LHS) 126 HK Tak Sing Alliance 3.62 58.8 78.3 204.2 934.3 Source: Bloomberg 2337 HK Shanghai Forte 4.42 11.6 36.8 22.1 66.8 1207 HK SRE Group 3.11 22.9 72.8 31.8 113.0 337 HK SPG Land 5.65 (0.7) 25.8 (15.7) n.a. 123 HK Guangzhou Investment 2.08 5.1 16.2 (2.3) 61.2 1383 HK Hong Long Holdings 2.6 41.3 43.6 n.a. n.a. 1838 HK China Properties Group 3.53 20.5 0.3 n.a. n.a. Source: Bloomberg John So ICEA Securities Asia Limited (852) 2231 8708 [email protected] Tak Sing Alliance (126.HK) 15 June 2007 I C E A A subsidiary of ICBC Expertise in “Material City” development in China The Company and its partners successfully launched the South China International Industrial Materials City (“The City”, thereafter) in Shenzhen last year. The City has total GFA over 2mn sq. m.. Phase I with about 500k sq. m., completed last year, has over 90% sold or leased. The target is selling half of the entire spaces and retain the other half for rentals. Strategically located at the industrial hub in Pearl Delta Region, the City is easily accessible by various expressways and highways, with a daily traffic turnover of more than 10,000 vehicles. The City comprises 5 industrial material trade centers, exhibition halls, offices, warehouses, high-rise residential units and hotels. With these facilities, the City has a competitive edge in providing one-stop solution for manufacturers looking for industrial materials. The Company now plans to expand such “Material City” concept to other cities like the recent start-ups in Nan Chang and Lian Yun Gang, which could significantly boost the Company’s NAV upon completion in the next 2-3 years. Model of the “Material City” The City project has been popular amongst tenants from various industries including 1. leather and accessories; 2. textile and clothing; 3. paper and packaging; 4. electronic accessories and 5. chemicals and plastics industries. The City is jointly invested by five companies including Tak Sing, Man Sang Group, Kin Hip Metal and Plastic, Luk Ka International and Kings Faith International. Tak Sing holds a 20% stake in the project. The shareholders have years of experience in the above mentioned industries and thus provide good management on The City, which gathers over 3,000 shops from different industries. Since the City has advantages in scale (with more than 3,000 shops) as well as transportation networks, it stands out from the numerous small-scale material centers. Furthermore, the City has created an encouraging trading environment in its phase I development, it thus has good bargaining power on rental when phase II opens. We expect the City can contribute to Tak Sing profits (excluding revaluation gains) from property sales of Rmb45mn and Rmb176mn in FY07/08 and FY08/09 respectively. As shown with assumptions below, we estimate Tak Sing’s shared NAV at Rmb2.12bn. 2 ICEA Securities Asia Limited Tak Sing Alliance (126.HK) 15 June 2007 I C E A A subsidiary of ICBC NAV estimation of South China City Total Per share Rmb mn Rmb Phase I (completed rental GFA) (62.6k sq. m. x Rmb10,000 psm) 626 0.63 Phase II (under construction) (DCF) 1,490 1.49 Estimated NAV 2,116 2.12 Source: ICEA estimates South China City earnings estimate Attri. GFA Price Cost Profits Net Profit Year sqm Rmb psm Rmb psm Rmb psm Rmb mn 2007/08 24,000 10,000 (5,600) 3,740 45 2008/09 84,000 11,000 (6,060) 4,199 176 2009/10 24,000 12,100 (6,566) 4,704 56 2010/11 100,000 13,310 (7,123) 5,259 263 2011/12 102,800 14,641 (7,835) 5,785 297 Total 334,800 838 Source: company and ICEA estimates Note: Assuming 50% of the projects will be sold and the remaining will be leased 75% stake in Grand Lake City Tak Sing started the Grand Lake City property project in Yiyang, Hunan Province (益陽市, 湖南省) in 2007. The Company currently has a 75% stake in the project with total attributable GFA of 2.25mn sq. m. The Company started presales this year and about 50% of the FY07 sales target has been attained. We expect it can generate profits of above Rmb100mn per year for over 10 years starting from FY08/09 (refer to page 4) and the NAV is estimated at Rmb1.33bn. Yiyang is a county-level city under Hunan Province and 68km away from Changsha. It has a total population of 4mn, about 1.25mn of which are in urban areas. The city is famous for its agricultural industries, especially the grain, cotton and fishery industries. In 2006, the primary industries accounted for about 26% of the local GDP. Yiyang city statistics Urban citizens - Annual Nominal Per capita Urban Disposable Property GDP GDP Population Income per Investments Year (Rmb bn) (Rmb) (mn of citizens) Capita (Rmb) (Rmb mn) 2001 21.1 4,660 1.36 6,575 270 2002 23.0 5,060 1.36 6,804 380 2003 24.0 5,269 1.29 7,424 790 2004 28.7 6,992 1.23 8,291 760 2005 32.9 8,169 1.21 8,250 1,080 2006 33.6 8,088 1.25 9,138 1,720 CAGR 9.8% 11.7% -1.7% 6.8% 44.8% Source: Yiyang government statistics and ICEA estimates 3 ICEA Securities Asia Limited Tak Sing Alliance (126.HK) 15 June 2007 I C E A A subsidiary of ICBC In 2006, the total commodity residential sales in Yiyang reached 806k sq. m, up 86% yoy. Comparing the city’s sales to population ratio with other cities in the country, we believe property development and sale in the city is lagging and thus should pick up quickly in the next few years. Therefore, we expect the Company can sell up to 200k sq. m. (attributable 150k sq. m.) in Grand Lake City and take a net attributable profit of RMB100mn per year for over 10 years from 2009 onwards. Sales to population ratio - by cities Registered Urban Sale to population Residential GFA population City & year (mn of citizens) sales (mn sqm) ratio (%) 2005 Yiyang 1.21 0.44 0.36 Guangzhou 6.14 11.30 1.84 Beijing 12.90 28.24 2.19 Shanghai 11.50 28.46 2.47 Shenzhen 8.30 9.07 1.09 Average 1.59 2006 Yiyang 1.25 0.81 0.65 Guangzhou 6.42 13.00 2.02 Beijing 13.38 24.36 1.82 Shanghai 11.87 26.15 2.20 Shenzhen 8.60 7.22 0.84 Average 1.51 Source: CEIC, statistical bureau of the 5 cities Grand Lake City earnings estimate Attri. GFA Price Cost Net Profit Year (sqm) (Rmb psm) (Rmb psm) (Rmb mn) 2007/08 97,500 3,000 (2,080) 67 2008/09 150,000 3,150 (2,164) 111 2009/10 150,000 3,308 (2,252) 119 2010/11 150,000 3,473 (2,345) 127 2011/12 150,000 3,647 (2,462) 133 2012/13 150,000 3,829 (2,585) 140 2013/14 150,000 4,020 (2,714) 147 2014/15 150,000 4,221 (2,850) 154 2015/16 150,000 4,432 (2,993) 162 2016/17 150,000 4,654 (3,142) 170 2017/18 150,000 4,887 (3,299) 179 2018/19 150,000 5,131 (3,464) 187 2019/20 150,000 5,388 (3,638) 197 2019/20 150,000 5,657 (3,819) 207 2020/21 202,500 5,940 (4,010) 293 Total 2,250,000 2,393 Source: ICEA estimates Note: assuming all GFA are used for residential development and sale, with annual 5% price and cost inflation In conclusion, we regard the recurring property sales income is positive to the Company.
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