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Uurimusi Eesti Kliimast ( TARTU ÜLIKOOL GEOGRAAFIA INSTITUUT PUBLICATIONES INSTITUTI GEOGRAPHICI UNIVERSITATIS TARTUENSIS 93 ______ Uurimusi Eesti kliimast Toimetaja Jaak Jaagus Tartu 2003 PUBLICATIONES INSTITUTI GEOGRAPHICI UNIVERSITATIS TARTUENSIS 93 UNIVERSITY OF TARTU DEPARTMENT OF GEOGRAPHY PUBLICATIONES INSTITUTI GEOGRAPHICI UNIVERSITATIS TARTUENSIS 93 Studies on Climate of Estonia Editor Jaak Jaagus Tartu 2003 TARTU ÜLIKOOL GEOGRAAFIA INSTITUUT PUBLICATIONES INSTITUTI GEOGRAPHICI UNIVERSITATIS TARTUENSIS 93 Uurimusi Eesti kliimast Toimetaja Jaak Jaagus Tartu 2003 Väljaandja / Publisher: Tartu Ülikooli Geograafia Instituut Vanemuise 46, 51014 Tartu Eesti / Estonia [email protected] Toimetuskolleegium / Editorial advisory board: Jaak Jaagus, Hill Kulu, Ott Kurs, Ülo Mander, Tõnu Oja, Hannes Palang Toimetaja / Editor: Jaak Jaagus [email protected] Kaane kujundanud / Cover designed by Kalle Paalits © Tartu Ülikooli Geograafia Instituut ISSN 1406-3069 ISBN 9985-56-725-0 Tartu Ülikooli Kirjastus Tiigi 78, 50410 Tartu Tellimus nr. 104 Sisukord О. Kärner. Klimatoloogia - aritmeetiline rahvaluule või ratsionaalne andmetöötlus 9 A. Tarand. Tallinnas mõõdetud õhutemperatuuri aegrida 24 M. Sepp. Sünoptiline klimatoloogia: ülevaade ajaloost, arengust ja metoodikast 37 S. Keevallik. Trendid meteoroloogilistes parameetrites ja nende seos õhuvooluga vabas atmosfääris 53 J. Jaagus. Kliimamuutuse tendentsid Eestis 20. sajandi teisel poolel seostatuna muutustega atmosfääri tsirkulatsioonis 62 0. Tomingas. Atmosfääri tsirkulatsiooni indeksid Eesti jaoks ja nende seos ilmastiku kõikumistega 80 V. Truija, P. Post, J. Tuulik. Atmosfääri tsirkulatsiooni sünoptiline klassifikatsioon Läänemere piirkonnas ning selle seosed Eesti sademete ja temperatuuriga 102 V. Truija, P. Post. Peakomponentanalüüsil baseeruva atmosfääri tsirkulatsiooni klassifikatsiooni rakendamine Põhja-Euroopas 116 H. Tooming. Talve ja kevade seosed Eesti kliimas 129 J. Jaagus. Muutused Eesti rannikumere jääoludes 20. sajandi teisel poolel 143 T. Tammets. Pinnase ja õhu soojusressurssidest Võru ja Tartu andmetel 153 M. Kaasik. Kas Eesti talved on ennustatavad? 164 S. Vesselova, J. Kadaja. Hinnang Eesti ilmateenistuse temperatuuriprognoosidele.... 178 1. Ansper, C. Fortelius. HIRLAM-mudeli tuuleprognoosi hindamine Läänemerel.... 195 T. Tomson. Eesti tuule püsimuutlikkus 206 S. Keevallik. Tallinna lahe tuuled 217 T. Soomere. Tallinna lahe loodusliku lainetuse režiimist 227 A. Jaani, V. Beljazo. Peipsi veetaseme pikaajalised kõikumised ja nende Maa­ välised põhjused 242 A. Järvet. Võrtsjärve temperatuurirežiim 256 2 R. Ahas, A. Aasa. Fenoloogiliste kalendrite koostamise metoodika Kesk-ja Ida- Euroopa andmete näitel 268 V. Russak, I. Niklus. Päikesekiirguse vootiheduste suhe kui atmosfääri läbipaistvuse indikaator 288 K. Eerme, U. Veismann, R. Koppel. Erüteemsete ultraviolettkiirguse dooside tagasivaatav hindamine 295 Contents О. Kärner. Climatology - an arithmetic folklore or rational data processing? 23 A. Tarand. Time series of observed air temperature in Tallinn 30 M. Sepp. Synoptic climatology: overview of its history, development and methods 53 S. Keevallik. Trends in meteorological parameters and their relations with the wind velocity in the free atmosphere 61 J. Jaagus. Climate change tendencies in Estonia in relation with changes in atmospheric circulation during the second half of the 20th century 78 0. Tomingas. Atmospheric circulation indices for Estonia and their relationship with climatic variability 101 V. Truija, P. Post, J. Tuulik. Synoptic classification of atmospheric circulation in the region of the Baltic Sea and its connections to Estonian temperature and precipitation 113 V. Truija, P. Post. Applying an eigenvector-based classification of the atmospheric circulation for Northern Europe 128 H. Tooming. Winter-spring relationships in Estonian climate 141 J. Jaagus. Changes in sea ice conditions near the Estonian coast during the second half of the 20th century 152 T. Tammets. Evaluation of soil and air thermal resources during the heating period in Võru and Tartu 162 M. Kaasik. Are the winters in Estonia predictable? 177 S. Vesselova, J. Kadaja. Verification of temperature forecasts of Estonian weather service 193 1. Ansper, C. Fortelius. Verification of HIRLAM marine wind forecasts in the Baltic 205 T. Tomson. Steady-state variability of the Estonian wind 216 S. Keevallik. Winds on the Tallinn Bay 226 T. Soomere. Natural wave regime of Tallinn Bay 241 A. Jaani. Long-term water level fluctuations of Lake Peipsi (Chudskoe) and their extra-terrestrial reasons 254 A. Järvet. Thermal regime of Lake Võrtsjärv 267 R. Ahas, A. Aasa. Methods for compiling phenological calendars: the case study of Central and Eastern European database 287 V. Russak, I. Niklus. Beam-diffuse broadband irradiance ratio as a characteristic of atmospheric transparency 294 K. Eerme, U. Veismann, R. Koppel. Backward estimation of the erythemal ultraviolet doses 307 Publicationes Instituti Geographici Universitatis Tartuensis 93 (2003) 9-23 Klimatoloogia - aritmeetiline rahvaluule või ratsionaalne andmetöötlus? Olavi Kärner Tartu Observatoorium 1. Sissejuhatus Klimatoloogia on õpetus kliimast ja kliima (ehk ilmastu) kui nähtuse defineerimiseks on tehtud palju katseid. Seega ei tohiks olla just paha kui selles kirjatükis lähtuda ENEst: kliima on mingi paiga paljuaastane ilmade laad ja rütm; pidevalt muutuv atmosfääri seisund, mis avaldub paikkonna ilmastikus ja on vaadeldav pikema ajavahemiku (aastakümnete) ilmade statistikana. Pidevalt muutuv atmosfääri seisund sisaldab hurmavat määramatust ning kogu definitsioon mõjub sugereerivalt nagu haiku, või Ilmar Laabani hüüatus: Ilm läheb pimedaks, kui pilv teda imetab. Sellist nähtust on väga raske analüüsida, aga seda lihtsam kommenteerida eri vaatenurkadest lähtudes. Osa kommentaare nimetatakse teaduseks. Viimastest on praegu valitsev nn Globaalse Soojenemise teooria (IPCC, 1996; IPCC, 2001), mis kliima asemel tegeleb tema muutumisega. Selle lihtne ja hästi dekoreeritud põhiväide (et praegu toimub globaalne soojenemine peamiselt inimtegevuse tõttu) on tuletatud aasta keskmise kiirgusbilansi lihtsustatud interpretatsioonist. Maa kiirgusbilanss atmosfääri ülapiiril on tasakaalus, kui 70(l-/>) = F, kus 70 on atmosfääri ülapiirile langev keskmine päikseenergia hulk, p - süsteemi aluspind + atmosfäär albeedo ja F - süsteemist lahkuv soojuskiirgus, mis on võrdeline süsteemi efektiivse temperatuuri neljanda astmega. Et kasvuhoonegaasid (nagu C02) atmosfääris nõrgendavad süsteemist lahkuvat soojuskiirgust ja nende kontsentratsioon Maa atmosfääris pidevalt kasvab, arvatavalt inimtegevuse tagajärjel, ongi intriig käes - F kipub vähenema. Järelikult temperatuur peab tõusma, et bilanssi uuesti tasakaalu viia (/oja p eeldatakse siin konstantseks jäävat). Muutus lineaarse trendi kujul on kergesti mõistetav ja praegu tegeleb suur osa klimatolooge energiliselt soojenemisele kinnituste leidmisega. Seda teooriat on arvatavasti kõige enam vaja teatud suurfirmadel ja riikidel, et saada endale teaduslikke eeliseid ärimaailmas. Ilma tugeva rahalise süstita ei laiutaks muidu nii kaua teooria, mis ei tunnista ei moodsat aegridade analüüsi ega temperatuuri (vt Christy et ai, 2000) ja kiirgusmõõtmiste tulemusi satelliitidelt. Sisuliselt tunneb IPCC töörühm end hästi Laabani seltsis: Ainsa loogalöögiga loob Rrosi Selaviste oma loogelise loogika. Püüe IPCC mõtteviisi tegelikkusega sobitada viib aga tavainimese kiiresti Hendrik Visnapuu juurde: Oo, maailm, purjus jumalate okse! Enne, kui saab luua õpetust kliimast ja tema muutusest, tuleb koguda piisavalt andmeid muutlikkuse kohta Maa kliimasüsteemis (st atmo-, hüdro-, krüo- ja biosfääris). Asjaliku analüüsi tarbeks on vaja pidevalt muutuv atmosfääri seisund esitada kvantitatiivselt mõõdetavates suurustes. Õhutemperatuur on üks selliseid suurusi. Ilmade laadi ja rütmi uurimist on lihtne alustada aastasest käigust. Päiksekiirguse aastane käik mingi piirkonna jaoks toob endaga kaasa ka suure õhutemperatuuri aastase käigu, mis on esimeses lähenduses perioodiline funktsioon. Kõrvalekalded sellest keskmisest aastasest 3 9 Publicationes Instituîi Geographici Universitatis Tartuensis 93 (2003) 9-23 käigust võivad olla küllalt juhuslikud, sest nad on tingitud paljude erinevate (ener­ geetiliselt märksa nõrgemate) mõjutuste koostööst. Nii tuleb esimeses lähenduses sobitada keskmine aastane käik ja jääkide omadusi uurida statistiliste meetoditega. Statistika osa meteoroloogias on tegelikult tänamatu. Hüpoteeside kontroll väikese satsi omaduste järgi suurte kogumite omaduste selgitamiseks seisab eeldusel, et mõlemad on saadud samadel tingimustel. Meteoroloogias ei saa see eeldus kunagi kehtida, sest kliimasüsteemi käigus hoidev päiksekiirgus on pidevalt muutuv, seda nii Maa orbiidi parameetrite muutuste (Berger, Loutre, 1991) kui ka solaarkonstandi /0 enda värinate (Fröhlich, Lean, 1998a, b) tõttu. Seega on võimalik järeldusi teha vaid olemasoleva, juba mõõdetud rea piirides. Globaalsete, ajaliselt suhteliselt lühikeste temperatuuriridade muutlikkust statsionaarsuse seisukohalt vaatles Kärner (2001b). Käesolev artikkel analüüsib lokaalse temperatuuri muutlikkust samast vaatevinklist. Andmebaasina kasutatakse siin Kesk- Inglismaa õhutemperatuuri (CET) aegrida. Kesk-Inglismaa tähendab kolmnurka Bristoli, Manchesteri ja Londoni vahel ning rea moodustamise põhimõtteid selgitab Parker et ai (1992). Igapäevane õhutemperatuuri registreerimine neis jaamades algas aastal 1772, mis teeb sellest reast maailma pikima mõõdetud temperatuuride rea. 230 aastase rea muutlikkuse
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