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Analysis of the Spatio-Temporal Variability of Air Temperature Near the Ground Surface in the Central Baltic Area from 2005 to 2019

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Analysis of the Spatio-Temporal Variability of Air Temperature Near the Ground Surface in the Central Baltic Area from 2005 to 2019 atmosphere Article Analysis of the Spatio-Temporal Variability of Air Temperature Near the Ground Surface in the Central Baltic Area from 2005 to 2019 Agu Eensaar Centre for Sciences, Tallinn University of Applied Sciences, Pärnu mnt 62, 10135 Tallinn, Estonia; [email protected] Abstract: In this study, we analyzed the changes in the average daily, monthly, seasonal, and annual surface air temperatures based on the temperature data obtained from seven stations (1 January 2005– 31 December 2019; 15 years) belonging to the central Baltic area (Stockholm, Tallinn, Helsinki, Narva, Pärnu, Tartu, and Võru). The statistical analysis revealed that there was a strong correlation between the daily average surface air temperature of the studied cities (range: 0.95–0.99). We analyzed the frequency distribution of the average surface air temperatures in addition to the Kruskal–Wallis and Dunn’s tests (significance level of 0.05) to demonstrate that the difference in air temperatures between Narva, Tallinn, Tartu, and Stockholm are critical. The Welch’s t-test (significance level 0.05), used to study the differences in the average monthly air temperature of the cities in question, showed that the surface air temperatures in Stockholm do not differ from Tallinn air temperatures from May to August. However, the surface air temperatures of Narva were similar to those of Tallinn in September. According to our results, the trends in the changes of monthly average surface air temperatures have a certain course during the year (ranging from 1.8 ◦C (Stockholm) to 4.5 ◦C (Võru and Tartu) per decade in February). During the entire study period, in addition to February, the surface air temperature increased in all the studied cities in March, May, June, and December, and the surface air temperature did not increase in January or from July to October. During the study period, the Citation: Eensaar, A. Analysis of the average annual surface air temperature in the cities of the central Baltic area increased by 0.43 ◦C Spatio-Temporal Variability of Air per decade. The results also confirm that the surface air temperature in the study area is changing Temperature Near the Ground differently in different cities. The acceleration of the surface air temperature is very alarming and Surface in the Central Baltic Area requires a significant intensification of the measures taken to slow down the temperature rise. from 2005 to 2019. Atmosphere 2021, 12, 60. https://doi.org/10.3390/ Keywords: air temperature; trends; Welch’s t-test; Kruskal–Wallis test; Dunn’s test; Baltic area atmos12010060 Received: 19 November 2020 Accepted: 29 December 2020 Published: 31 December 2020 1. Introduction To forecast climate change and its potential environmental and societal impact, it is Publisher’s Note: MDPI stays neu- important to examine the evolution of changes in various components of the atmosphere. tral with regard to jurisdictional clai- One of the most significant parameters characterizing the condition of the atmosphere is ms in published maps and institutio- surface air temperature [1,2]. Many researchers have used various methods and modeling nal affiliations. techniques and confirmed that global warming is an ongoing phenomenon [3–8]. These studies have fueled further interest among various groups of researchers who study the ef- fect of global warming on trends in air temperature [9]. Changes in surface air temperature have a significant effect, direct or indirect, on the ecological balance of the environment, Copyright: © 2020 by the author. Li- censee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland. biodiversity, and the extent of environmental pollution. This also affects the functioning of a This article is an open access article society, including the functioning of agriculture, and consequently, food supply, healthcare, distributed under the terms and con- industry, transport, and other infrastructure components [10–15]. Climate change, due to ditions of the Creative Commons At- global warming, is having significant societal and economic consequences, which are more tribution (CC BY) license (https:// severe in some areas than in others. Furthermore, it can have a greater negative impact creativecommons.org/licenses/by/ on certain social groups, for example, the elderly and people with disabilities. Therefore, 4.0/). the member states of the European Union, including Estonia, are developing strategies Atmosphere 2021, 12, 60. https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos12010060 https://www.mdpi.com/journal/atmosphere Atmosphere 2021, 12, 60 2 of 20 for the adaptation to climate change [16], which can only be effective when they are based on comprehensive studies of changes in the condition of the atmosphere (including air temperature). Knowing the current condition of the environment and trends in its changes will help predict what developments are to be expected in the upcoming decades, which will have to be considered while drafting strategies on adaptation to changes. Meteorological studies in the vicinity of the central part of the Baltic Sea have been conducted for quite a long time [17–26]. This allowed for the evaluation of the regularities of the changes in the condition of the atmosphere of the coastal area both in the long- and short-term [27–41]. The change in the thermal regime of the Baltic Sea is extremely important, as it has a significant impact on economic activity, especially during the cold season. In the central part of the Baltic Sea, the formation of ice cover and the extent of its distribution have a particularly strong impact, affecting fishery and port activities and the safety of navigation in Russia, Finland, Estonia, and Sweden [42–44]. The changing trend in the surface air temperatures is quite a complicated process to be assessed, which, in addition to its random aspect, has certain temporal and spatial characteristics. Observation places, measurement techniques, and types of equipment have changed over time; therefore, it is very important to analyze the results of the latest more precise measurements of surface air temperatures. Various studies have shown that on average, the increase in surface air temperature in the central Baltic area, reaching as much as 0.5 ◦C per decade, is faster than that in the Northern Hemisphere [32,33]. Thus, the increase in surface air temperature has primarily taken place in the spring and autumn. Despite the relatively small size of the central Baltic area, we can still observe significant regional differences due to the influence of the Baltic Sea, as well as the Atlantic and Arctic oceans. North Atlantic oscillation plays an important role in the formation of the local climate of the Baltic Sea area (especially from November to April) [26]. Studying surface air temperatures in the central Baltic area will allow the characteristics of climate change to be understood on a regional scale and the nature of global warming can be defined more accurately [33]. 2. Materials and Methods In this study, we aimed to analyze the changes in surface air temperatures and their relationship between cities of the central Baltic area (Tallinn, Narva, Pärnu, Tartu, Võru, Stockholm, and Helsinki) at various time points (daily, monthly, seasonal, and annual) between 2005 and 2019. It is noteworthy that in some cases, the meteorological stations are located outside the city limits in order to eliminate the general thermal effect of the urban environment. For the sake of brevity, hereinafter, we will be using the names of the cities instead of the names of the stations where air temperatures were measured. We selected the area and the specific cities by considering their location in relation to the Baltic Sea and the availability of the long-term results of reliable measurements of air temperature. Figure1 displays the map of the study area. In the study area, the coastal cities namely, Stockholm, Tallinn, and Narva are located in the west-to-east direction, whereas Helsinki, Tallinn, and Pärnu are located in the north-to-south direction. Tartu and Võru are inland cities located somewhat off the coast of the Baltic Sea. Previous studies show greater differences in the changes in the air temperature of various cities in the area being researched in this study. Tallinn’s location is central in relation to the area being researched; therefore, in many cases, it is reasonable to look for correlation and difference in surface air temperatures in relation to Tallinn’s surface air temperatures. The operation of meteorological stations in Estonia is coordinated by the Estonian Weather Service (EWS), which publishes the results of meteorological observations in its yearbooks; the latest data available are from the year 2019 [45]. The Tallinn meteorological station began its operation in 1805, and since 1946, air temperatures in Tallinn have been measured by the Tallinn–Harku meteorological station. Narva meteorological station has been operating since 1866. Between 2000 and 2013, the station was in Narva–Jõesuu, and at the end of 2013, the station was moved to Soldina village, which is under the Atmosphere 2021, 12, 60 3 of 20 station began its operation in 1805, and since 1946, air temperatures in Tallinn have been measured by the Tallinn–Harku meteorological station. Narva meteorological station has been operating since 1866. Between 2000 and 2013, the station was in Narva–Jõesuu, and at the end of 2013, the station was moved to Soldina village, which is under the municipal administration of Narva–Jõesuu. Pärnu meteorological station began recording measure- ments in 1842. In Tartu, meteorological measurements have been recorded since 1865, and since 1964, air temperatures for Tartu have been measured by the Tartu–Tõravere mete- Atmosphere 2021, 12, 60 orological station. Võru meteorological station has been operating since 1868. The data3 of on 20 the daily average surface air temperatures in Tallinn, Narva, Pärnu, Tartu, and Võru for the period from 1 January 2005 to 31 December 2019 (15 years) has been obtained from the Estonian Environment Agency [46].
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