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River Forecast Performance Measures Development Project : Final Report Final Report Project Number 111430014 September 3, 2014 Alberta Environment and Sustainable Resource Development Performance Measures Development Project Calgary, AB, Canada Canmore, AB, Canada Calgary, AB, Canada River Forecast Performance Measures Development Project FINAL REPORT Prepared for: Alberta Environment and Sustainable Resource Development (ESRD) Prepared by: Stantec Consulting Ltd. 111430014 September 3, 2014 Stantec Consulting Ltd. 200-325 25th Street SE, Calgary AB T2A 7H8 September 3, 2014 File: 111430019 Attention: Ms. Colleen Walford, P.Eng. River Flow Forecaster Operations Infrastructure Branch Environment and Sustainable Resource Development (ESRD) Government of Alberta 11th Floor, Oxbridge Place 9820-106th Street NW Edmonton, AB T5K 2J6 Dear Ms. Walford, Reference: Performance Measures Development Project Stantec is pleased to submit the final report for the Performance Measures Development Project to Alberta Environment and Sustainable Resource Development (ESRD). This report and the accompanying Comparative Tables and Technical Memorandum, present the background, approach, methods and summary of the performance measures of several flood- forecast centres in North America, Europe and South Pacific. The outcome of the study includes important observations that will help assess the ongoing program, and the suitability and effectiveness of hydrological forecasting models for Alberta watershed conditions. The observations are primarily intended to provide ESRD with an opportunity to consider integration of desirable best practices implemented in other Flood Forecast Centres from jurisdictions throughout the world. The report also includes the complete responses to the questionnaire by 13 flood-forecast centres around the world and can be used for additional detailed analysis of similar studies in the future. The final report addresses comments received from the ESRD during the review of the draft final report. We extend our sincere appreciation to the following flood-forecast centres that took the time and committed resources to complete the questionnaire: National Weather Service - Colorado Basin River Forecast Centre Urban Drainage and Flood Control District (Denver, CO) Flood Control District of Maricopa Country (Arizona) September 3, 2014 Ms. Colleen Walford, P.Eng. Page 2 of 2 Reference: Performance Measures Development Project Arizona State-wide Flood Warning Network Switzerland Federal Office for the Environment Scotland Environmental Protection Agency – River Forecast Centre Upper Thames River Conservation Authority (Ontario) Grand River Conservation Authority (Ontario) British Columbia River Forecast Centre Bavaria River Forecast Centre (Germany) Manitoba Flood Forecasting Centre Australia River Forecasting and Warning Branch Flanders Hydrologic Information Centre (Belgium) If you have any questions or comments concerning the project, or require further information, please contact me. Regards, STANTEC CONSULTING LTD. Rick Carnduff, M. Eng., P. Eng. Principal, Engineering Phone: (403) 716-8213 Fax: (403) 716-8109 [email protected] Sign-off Sheet This document entitled River Forecast Performance Measures Development Project was prepared by Stantec for the account of Alberta Environment and Sustainable Resource Development (ESRD). The material in it reflects Stantec’s best judgment in light of the information available to it at the time of preparation. Any use which a third party makes of this report, or any reliance on or decisions made based on it, are the responsibilities of such third parties. Stantec accepts no responsibility for damages, if any, suffered by any third party as a result of decisions made or actions based on this report. Issued on September 3, 2014 Survey carried out by: Phillip Mutulu (Ph.D.) Seifu Guangul (Ph.D., P.Eng.) Scott Robertson (P.Eng.) George Sabol (Ph.D., PE) Bryan Close (PE, CFM) Prepared by: George Rempel (P.Eng.) Seifu Guangul (Ph.D., P.Eng.) Phillip Mutulu (Ph.D.) Coordinated by: Seifu Guangul (Ph.D., P.Eng.) Senior Reviewed by: David Morgan (Ph.D., P.Eng.) Steve Brown (MBA, P.Eng.) Managed by: Rick Carnduff (M. Eng., P.Eng.) RIVER FORECAST PERFORMANCE MEASURES DEVELOPMENT PROJECT Table of Contents EXECUTIVE SUMMARY .................................................................................................................. I 1.0 GENERAL INTRODUCTION ............................................................................................ 1.1 1.1 BACKGROUND TO THE PROJECT .................................................................................... 1.1 1.2 PURPOSE OF THE STUDY ................................................................................................... 1.1 1.3 GENERAL OVERVIEW OF FLOOD FORECASTING ......................................................... 1.2 1.3.1 The Hydrologic Cycle .................................................................................... 1.2 1.3.2 Basic Components of a Flood Warning System ....................................... 1.4 2.0 FLOOD FORECAST CENTRES SURVEYED ....................................................................... 2.1 2.1 INTERVIEWS/RESEARCH .................................................................................................... 2.1 3.0 GENERAL BACKGROUND OF THE FORECAST CENTRES .............................................. 3.1 3.1 BACKGROUND/HISTORY .................................................................................................. 3.1 3.2 SIZE/POPULATION OF FORECAST AREA ......................................................................... 3.1 3.3 FORECAST STAFFING ........................................................................................................ 3.2 4.0 FORECAST CENTRE OBJECTIVES/OPERATION ............................................................. 4.1 4.1 MANDATES ......................................................................................................................... 4.1 4.2 COMMUNIQUES ................................................................................................................ 4.2 4.3 MAJOR CAUSES OF FLOODING ..................................................................................... 4.4 4.4 EMERGENCY SERVICES DURING MAJOR FLOODS ...................................................... 4.5 5.0 GENERAL DRAINAGE BASIN CHARACTERISTICS ......................................................... 5.1 6.0 FORECAST MODEL DESCRIPTIONS ............................................................................... 6.1 6.1 FORECAST MODELS .......................................................................................................... 6.1 6.2 FORECASTING MODE ....................................................................................................... 6.3 6.3 SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL CONSIDERATIONS ................................................................ 6.4 7.0 PHYSICAL PROCESSES .................................................................................................. 7.1 8.0 DATA ACQUISITION/MANAGEMENT ........................................................................... 8.1 9.0 FORECAST PRODUCTS DISSEMINATION AND PROTOCOLS ........................................ 9.1 10.0 PERFORMANCE MEASURE REVIEWS ........................................................................... 10.1 11.0 OBSERVATIONS ........................................................................................................... 11.1 lf \\cd1184-f01\workgroup\1114\active\111430014_esrd_performance_measure\05_report_deliv\reports\final\rpt_esrd_perf_measures_final_20140903.docx i RIVER FORECAST PERFORMANCE MEASURES DEVELOPMENT PROJECT LIST OF TABLES Table 2-1: Flood Forecasting Centres and Acronyms ................................................ 2.1 Table 3-1: Flood Forecasting Centre Staffing .............................................................. 3.2 Table 4-1: Flood Forecasting Centre Mandates ......................................................... 4.1 Table 4-2: Flood Forecasting Centre Communiques ................................................. 4.2 Table 4-3: Flood Forecasting Centre Products ............................................................ 4.3 Table 4-4: Flood Forecasting Centre and Flooding Event Triggers .......................... 4.4 Table 6-1: Model Definitions ........................................................................................... 6.1 Table 6-2: Summary for Delft-FEWS Forecasting Tool ................................................. 6.2 Table 6-3: Flood Forecasting Centre Forecasting Mode ........................................... 6.4 Table 6-4: Flood Forecasting Centre Summary of Responses .................................. 6.5 Table 9-1: Flood Forecasting Centre Communication .............................................. 9.2 Table 9-2: Flood Forecasting Centre Uncertainty/Public Interpretation................. 9.3 Table 9-3: Forecast Products Dissemination and Protocols-Public Feedback ...... 9.4 Table 10-1: Performance Review-Public Feedback ................................................... 10.1 Table 10-2: Example of Forecast Verification by Flood Control District of Maricopa County ........................................................................................ 10.3 Table 10-3: Contingency Table I .................................................................................... 10.4 Table 10-4: Contingency Table II ..................................................................................
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