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Area Transportation System Problems and Opportunities Report

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Area Transportation System Problems and Opportunities Report GTA West Corridor Planning and Environmental Assessment Study Revised Draft Area Transportation System Problems and Opportunities Report GTA West Corridor Planning and Environmental Assessment Study Revised Draft Area Transportation System Problems and Opportunities Report PREFACE The Area Transportation System Problems and Opportunities Report – Draft for Consultation (2009) is one of several interim reports which depicts the study process culminating in the Transportation Development Strategy. The Area Transportation System Problems and Opportunities Report – Draft for Consultation (2009) was first issued in July 2009. The reports purpose was to summarize the process and methodology that was used to identify transportation problems and opportunities, and to document the key findings of this work. In the consultation period following its release, the study team received comments relating to a range of issues, including municipal planning policy, transportation modelling, and planned transportation initiatives within the preliminary study area. The purpose of this revised draft report (December 2010) is to ensure that all comments received have been adequately addressed; where appropriate, the content of the report has been revised accordingly. Appendix C provides a Summary of the Input Received on the draft Problems and Opportunities Report, and details each comment received, the study team’s response, and any changes incorporated into the revised draft report. www.gta-west.com GTA West Corridor Planning and Environmental Assessment Study Revised Draft Area Transportation System Problems and Opportunities Report TABLE OF CONTENTS Page EXECUTIVE SUMMARY…………......………………………………………………………..i 1. INTRODUCTION..............................................................................................................1 1.1 Study Background................................................................................................... 1 1.2 Study Purpose......................................................................................................... 3 1.3 Purpose, Relevance and Position of Report within Study Process ......................... 3 1.4 Study Area and Areas of Influence......................................................................... 4 1.5 Problems and Opportunities in the Transportation System .................................... 7 1.5.1 Process Used to Identify Problems and Opportunities ............................... 7 1.5.2 Study Goals and Objectives...................................................................... 12 2. FACTORS INFLUENCING TRANSPORTATION DEMAND IN THE STUDY AREA ................................................................................................................................16 2.1 The Movement of People and Goods.................................................................... 16 2.1.1 Moving People.......................................................................................... 18 2.1.2 Moving Goods.......................................................................................... 20 2.2 Government Policies and Initiatives ..................................................................... 22 2.2.1 Provincial Policy Statement...................................................................... 23 2.2.2 Growth Plan for the Greater Golden Horseshoe....................................... 25 2.2.3 Greenbelt Plan........................................................................................... 30 2.2.4 Niagara Escarpment Plan.......................................................................... 32 2.2.5 Oak Ridges Moraine Conservation Act and Plan ..................................... 34 2.2.6 Metrolinx Regional Transportation Plan .................................................. 35 2.2.7 GO Transit’s Strategic Plan – GO 2020 ................................................... 37 2.2.8 National Policy Framework for Strategic Gateways and Trade Corridors38 2.2.9 Ontario-Quebec Continental Gateway and Trade Corridor...................... 39 2.2.10 Discovering Ontario – A Report on the Future of Tourism...................... 40 2.2.11 Building a National Tourism Strategy - A Framework for Federal / Provincial / Territorial Collaboration.................................................................... 41 2.2.12 Go Green: Ontario’s Action Plan on Climate Change............................. 43 2.2.13 Straight Ahead – A Vision for Transportation in Canada......................... 44 2.2.14 Southern Ontario Highways Program, 2008 to 2012................................ 45 2.2.15 Ontario’s Tourism Strategy....................................................................... 45 2.3 Land Use............................................................................................................... 46 2.3.1 Municipal Policies .................................................................................... 46 2.3.2 Areas of Interest for Monitoring Development Activities........................ 49 2.4 Economy ............................................................................................................... 50 2.4.1 Historical Population and Employment Trends........................................ 50 2.4.2 Population and Employment Forecasts..................................................... 52 2.4.3 Global Trade............................................................................................. 55 2.4.4 International Trade.................................................................................... 57 2.4.5 Domestic Trade......................................................................................... 60 2.5 Tourism and Recreation........................................................................................ 62 2.5.1 Domestic Tourism and Recreation............................................................ 66 2.5.2 United States Visitation ............................................................................ 67 2.5.3 Overseas Visitation................................................................................... 67 GTA West Corridor Planning and Environmental Assessment Study Revised Draft Area Transportation System Problems and Opportunities Report 2.6 Area Initiatives...................................................................................................... 68 2.6.1 Brantford to Cambridge Transportation Corridor Environmental Assessment Study ................................................................................................. 68 2.6.2 Niagara to Greater Toronto Area West Corridor Planning and Environmental Assessment Study......................................................................... 69 2.6.3 Highway 427 Transportation Corridor Environmental Assessment......... 70 2.6.4 Halton-Peel Boundary Area Transportation Study................................... 70 2.6.5 Other Initiatives........................................................................................ 71 3. FORECASTING TRAVEL DEMAND IN THE CORRIDOR ...................................75 3.1 Methodology......................................................................................................... 75 3.2 GGH Model Structure........................................................................................... 75 3.2.1 Metrolinx Transportation System Analysis .............................................. 81 3.3 Strategic Demand Forecasting Approach ............................................................. 81 3.4 Forecast Transportation Demands ........................................................................ 82 3.4.1 Moving People - GGH Model Travel Flows ............................................ 82 3.4.2 Moving Goods – Commercial Vehicle and Rail Transportation .............. 85 3.4.3 GGH Model Network Auto and Truck Assignment Flows ...................... 85 3.4.4 GGH Model Transit Demand.................................................................... 86 3.4.5 Summary of Key Screenline Operating Characteristics ........................... 87 3.4.6 Congestion Analysis................................................................................. 95 3.4.7 Summary of Key Facility Operational Characteristics ............................. 96 4. IDENTIFICATION OF SPECIFIC TRANSPORTATION PROBLEMS WITHIN THE STUDY AREA ......................................................................................................101 4.1 Introduction......................................................................................................... 101 4.2 Moving People.................................................................................................... 102 4.2.1 Commuter – Transit ................................................................................ 102 4.2.2 Commuter – Automobile ........................................................................ 110 4.2.3 Tourism and Recreation –Transit............................................................ 121 4.2.4 Tourism and Recreation – Automobile................................................... 122 4.3 Moving Goods.................................................................................................... 125 4.3.1 Truck....................................................................................................... 126 4.3.2 Rail.......................................................................................................... 132 4.3.3 Air ..........................................................................................................
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