博士論文 Military Threat Perception in Postwar Japan: the Soviet Union, China and North Korea （戦後日本における軍事脅威認識：ソ連、中国、北朝鮮） オレン エイタン © [2016] Eitan Oren ALL RIGHTS RESERVED 論文の内容の要旨 論文題目 Military Threat Perception in Postwar Japan: the Soviet Union, China and North Korea （戦後日本における軍事脅威認識：ソ連、中国、北朝鮮） 氏名 オレン エイタン Threat perceptions are of crucial importance to international security yet they remain understudied both generally among political scientists and particularly among Japan scholars. The few studies that did tackle the phenomenon of Japan’s perceptions of threat as a dependent variable suffer from weaknesses such as poor conceptualization of ‘threat-perception’ as well as limited methodology and data. This study aims to fill this gap by employing an eclectic approach which combines different methods and analyzes both macro and micro data. I examined postwar perceptions of military threats associated with the Soviet Union, China and North Korea across five decades and four units of analysis: the defense and political establishments, the media and the general public. The empirical findings of this study indicate that contrary to earlier findings, both the Soviet Union and China were perceived by some domestic actors in Japan as significant military threats during the postwar period (1950 - 1991), although with fluctuations over time, context, intensity and distribution. This study also finds that while both the Soviet Union and China were not fully securitized as military threats among the general public and the mainstream political leadership in the postwar period, North Korea was securitized successfully as a military threat in the late 1990s. Based on the evaluation of the empirical record, I argue that the observer’s pre-existing attitude toward security shapes to a large extent the process of threat- assessment. I further identify two “interpretive-codes” which informed how Japanese actors perceived threat in the postwar period, thus contributing to the literature about Japan’s postwar security and to the theorizing of the phenomenon of threat perception in general. Keywords Threat perception, Japanese Studies, Security Studies, Securitization, National security, Security Attitudes Dedication I would like to thank my supervisor at the University of Tokyo, professor Tanaka Akihiko, for his guidance and support throughout the past five years. I would also like to thank my sub-advisor, professor Sonoda Shigeto and professor Matsuda Yasuhiro - both at the University of Tokyo - for their advices and substantial feedback. In addition, I would like to thank professor Harada Shiro at the University of Tokyo and professor Ueki Chikako at Waseda University for their insightful comments on earlier drafts of the thesis. Finally, on a more personal level, I would like to thank my parents who enabled me to explore the world. Table of Contents 1. Introduction 15 1.1 Research Questions and Structure of the Thesis 25 1.2 Ontology and Epistemology 27 1.3 Basic Premises and Key Concepts 30 1.3.1 Basic Premises of the Study 30 1.3.2 Security 31 1.3.3 Threat Perception 34 1.3.4 Risk Perception 51 1.4 Literature Review: Securitization Theory (ST), Japan’s Security Culture, and Japanese Threat-Perceptions 57 1.4.1 Securitization Theory 57 1.4.2 Postwar Japan’s Security Culture 60 1.4.3 Japanese Threat Perceptions 68 1.4.4 The Space this Study Aims to Fill 71 1.5 Methodology 72 1.5.1 Units of Analysis 73 1.5.2 The Case Study 75 1.5.3 Sources and Data 76 1.5.4 Interpretation of Data 84 1.5.5 Analytical Framework: Comprehensive Typology of Threat Perceptions 85 1.5.6 Validity 88 1.6 Scope of Research 89 1.7 Contribution 90 2. Military Threat Perceptions of the Soviet Union in the Early Postwar Period (1950-1975) 91 2.1 Introduction 91 2.2 The Bilateral Context 94 2.3 Macro Level of Analysis 103 2.4 The Micro Level: Military Threat Perceptions of the Soviet Union among the Defense Establishment (1950 - 1975) 114 2.5 Threat Assessment as a Political Compromise: The 1976 NDPO 117 2.6 Application of the ABC Model to explain deviations of threat-assessment 124 2. 7 Military Threat Perceptions of the Soviet Union during the Early Postwar Period: the Political Establishment 127 2.7.1 Securitization of the Soviet Union Threat in a Political Context: Examination of PM Policy Speeches 1948 - 1951 128 2.7.2 The Political Discourse About Military Security Scenarios 137 2.8 Summary - Military Threat Perceptions of the Soviet Union 1950-1975 150 3. Military Threat Perceptions of the Soviet Union in the Late Postwar Period: 1976-1991 155 3.1 Introduction 155 3.2 Macro Level of Analysis 159 3.3 Micro Level: Military Threat Perceptions of the Soviet Union among the Defense Establishment (1976-1991) 174 3.4 Military Threat Perceptions of the Soviet Union among the Political Establishment (1976-1991) 176 3.4.1 A Limited Securitization of the Soviet Union Threat in a Military Context: Examination of PM Policy Speeches 1978 - 1983 177 3.4.2 The Political Discourse About Military Security Threat-scenarios 188 3.5 Application of the ABC Model to explain the overall shift in Japanese perception of a Soviet Military Threat in the late 1970s and 1980s 204 3.6 Summary: A Direct Soviet Threat? 1976 - 1991 210 4. The Soviet Submarine Issue: A Case Study 1952-1991 213 4.1 Introduction 214 4.2 Defense Establishment 216 4.3 Political Establishment 217 4.4 Soviet Submarines: Political Message 221 4.4.1 Inflating Rhetoric 226 4.4.2 Deflating Rhetoric 226 4.5 Threat Inflators: JDA 229 4.6 Summary: The Soviet Submarine Issue 234 5. Media Framing Analysis of the “Soviet threat” Issue as Represented in Yomiuri Shinbun Editorials 1952-1990 238 5.1 Introduction 238 5.2 Content Analysis of Yomiuri Editorials 241 5.3 Findings 242 5.4 Summary: Media Framing Analysis of the “Soviet threat” Issue as Represented in Yomiuri Shinbun Editorials 1952 - 1990 256 6. Military Threat Perceptions of China (1950-1975) 258 6.1 Introduction 259 6.2 Bilateral Relations 259 6.3 Defense Establishment 264 6.4 Political Establishment 267 6.5 Media 283 6.6 Public 289 6.7 Summary: Threat Perceptions of China (1950-1975) 291 7. Military Threat Perceptions of North Korea (1976-2000) 292 7.1 Introduction 293 7.2 Bilateral Relations 297 7.3 Defense Establishment 297 7.4 Political Establishment 300 7.5 Media 306 7.6 Public 311 7.7 Summary: Threat Perception of North Korea (1975-2000) 314 8. Summary of the Main Findings and Theoretical Implications 317 8.1 Measuring Threat Perceptions: Time, Context, Intensity and Distribution 317 8.1.1 The Soviet Union Case Study 318 8.1.2 The China Case Study 321 8.1.3 The North Korea Case Study 323 8.2 What were the main ‘traditional’ security threats in Postwar Japan? How were these threats framed? By Whom? 325 8.3 Were these threats “securitized” in CS language? What factors determined the intensity and distribution of threat-perceptions? 326 8.3.1 What factors determine the intensity of perceived threat? 327 8.3.2 What factors determine the distribution of danger-judgement? 333 8.4 Are there long-term patterns in postwar Japan’s national discourse about military-security threats? 336 8.5 Theoretical Implications 341 8.5.1 Securitization Theory 341 8.5.2 Threat Perception 344 8.5.3 IR Theoretical debate: Realist, Constructivist or Radical-Constructivist Explanations to Japanese Threat Perceptions? 347 9. Conclusion 352 Appendix 1: Yomiuri Editorials Containing “Soviet Union” and “Threat” (1946 - 1990) 357 Appendix 2: Yomiuri Editorials Containing “China” and “Threat” 381 Appendix 3: Yomiuri Editorials Containing “North Korea” and “Threat” 386 References 391 List of Tables Table 1: Attitudes Toward Security among Political Actors in Postwar Japan Table 2: Attitudinal Components Underlying Rationalities (The ABC Model) Table 3: Perception of Risk Table 4: Perceptions of Threat Table 5: Works on Japan’s National Security with More Than 350 Citations Table 6: A Typology of Threat-Perception : Judgement, Rhetoric, and Response Table 7: Japanese Sentiment Toward the Soviet Union in the Postwar Period Table 8: Number of References to Military-Security Scenarios and Soviet Military Components in Diet Deliberations 1946-1976 Table 9: Danger-Judgements about the Soviet Union (Late 1970s-Mid 1980s) Table 10: Editorials in Yomiuri Shinbun with References to “Soviet” and “Threat” 1946 - 1990 Table 11: Editorials in Yomiuri Shinbun with References to “China” and Threat” 1964 - 1972 Table 12: Representative Editorials in Yomiuri Shinbun with References to “North Korea” and Threat” 1975-2000 Table 13: What Type of Stimuli Domestic Actors Select When Assessing Threats? Table 14: Summary of the Main Findings Table 15: Competing Explanations to Japanese Threat Perceptions (TP) List of Figures Figure 1: Attitude and Perception Figure 2: References to External Threats in Diet Deliberations 1954-1985 Figure 3: Negative Image of Foreign Countries 1960-1985 Figure 4: References to Specific Threats in Diet Deliberations 1952-1992 Figure 5: Number of References to Threat and Threat-Scenarios in Diet Deliberations by Year 1946-1992 Figure 6: Number of Utterances of “Communist Threat” by Political Actor 1950-1975 Figure 7: Number of References to Various Components of the Soviet Threat in the Diet by Year 1946-2000 Figure 8: Measures to Maintain the Security of Japan Figure 9: Japanese Attitudes Toward Political Alignment 1960 - 1985 Figure 10: Which Foreign Countries Do You Dislike Most: Name Three Countries (1966-1997; %) Figure 11: Risk That Japan Would be Involved in a War Figure 12: Number of References to Various