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The General Election and Trends in Japanese Politics by Sasaki Takeshi

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The General Election and Trends in Japanese Politics by Sasaki Takeshi VIEWPOINTS The General Election and Trends in Japanese Politics By Sasaki Takeshi HE general election of Nov. 9, avoided competition and succeeded in with the number of seats they obtained. T2003, gave the ruling parties a rallying together the votes of supporters It is commonly believed that if the vot- majority of seats in the House of from both parties. In Japan, indepen- ing percentages had been slightly higher, Representatives and sustained the dent voters made up about half of the the DPJ would have come closer to tak- Koizumi Cabinet. The number of seats electorate, and in this election too, ing power. In recent elections there has each party secured in this election is trends within this group had an effect been a continued narrowing of the gap shown in Table 1. The Liberal on the election results. According to the in voting rates between urban and rural Democratic Party (LDP) lost 10 seats exit polls, 56% of independent voters areas, and this suggests a continued compared to the number it held before said they had voted for the DPJ. weakening of the strong support for the the dissolution of the Diet, the New Compared with the 21% of these non- LDP in rural areas. Komeito party gained three seats and the affiliated voters who voted for LDP can- In the election both the LDP and DPJ Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) gained didates, the DPJ was able to gain consid- offered political manifestos and attempt- 40 seats. The Social Democratic Party erable support. Compared to the previ- ed to open a debate on government poli- (SDP), Japanese Communist Party ous general election, both parties gained cies through these public pledges. The (JCP) and New Conservative Party increased support from these indepen- active participation of the leaders of (NCP) suffered heavy losses, and the dent voters, and this suggests that the both parties in creating such platforms NCP formally disbanded the day after system of political parties in Japan is was a major characteristic of this elec- the election and merged with the LDP. moving toward a two-party system. tion. Over 50% of the voters indicated The general view is that the election is Support for small political parties that they considered the manifestos an announcement of the advent of a among non-affiliated voters decreased when they cast their votes, and it was two-party system made up of the two significantly. therefore anticipated that the election major parties, the LDP and the DPJ. Voters in Japan cast one vote for sin- would center on a debate over concrete The LDP obtained a majority of seats gle-seat constituencies and another for political issues, rather than on the popu- in the single-seat constituencies, but in proportional representation seats. One larity of the politicians or political scan- the proportional representation system it also finds in Japan a split-ticket vote, dals, as has been true in the past. Both took second billing to the DPJ. LDP whereby the voter casts one vote each for parties raised “reform” as a central dominance in the single-seat constituen- different parties. Of those who cast a totem, and made significant policy pro- cies relied heavily upon the abstention of vote for the LDP in the single-seat con- posals concerning the same issues. the New Komeito party and the support stituencies, 67% voted for the LDP in However, the manifestos were simply it gave to LDP candidates in those con- the proportional representation system, made public, and it cannot be said that stituencies. According to one exit poll, with the remaining 32% voting for the there was in fact any ardent debate over 72% of New Komeito supporters voted DPJ or New Komeito (40% for DPJ policies. Nonetheless, one result is that for the LDP candidate in the single-seat and 52% for New Komeito). Similarly, in comparison with the past, it is now constituencies, compared to 61% in the 79% of the voters who cast ballots for clearer what the parties in power have previous election. In single-seat con- the DPJ in single-seat constituencies did promised the people and it has become stituencies where there was no LDP can- the same for the proportional represen- easier to evaluate the government’s actu- didate, the polls showed that 56% of tation seats, and the remaining 21% al achievements. LDP supporters voted for the New voted for the LDP or New Komeito An election for the House of Komeito candidates, compared to 38% (43% and 25% respectively). However, Councilors is scheduled for the summer in the previous election. Thus it was in comparison with the previous elec- of 2004, and a few months from now significant that the LDP-New Komeito tion, in general the ratio of cross-voting the clash between the LDP and the DPJ coalition connoted cooperation in the declined, showing an increased alle- will resume. Consequently, the focus of election. giance to one particular political party. attention will be on what kind of In September 2003 the DPJ merged The voter turnout of 59.86% is cer- “reform” results the Koizumi Cabinet with the Liberal Party, and by doing tainly not high. Up until now, it has will be able to achieve prior to next sum- this, it succeeded in broadening its sup- generally been held that if voter turnout mer’s election and whether its rate of port base. In the previous election both rates are low, this will favor the LDP, support will rise or decline. According parties fielded candidates in the same and in view of this trend plus the fact to the provisions of Japan’s Constitu- constituencies and this resulted in the that New Komeito voting levels were tion, there is no need for a change of defeat of both parties, but this time they high, neither party should be satisfied cabinet based on the results of the elec- 30 JAPAN SPOTLIGHT • January / February 2004 VIEWPOINTS Table 1: Number of elected members in the House of Representatives tion for the House of Councilors, but attention will be given to the fact that there have been cases in the past where the cabinet has been reshuffled as a result of a House of Councilors election. This election has shown that the Koizumi Cabinet does not enjoy the same enthusiastic support it had two years ago. The strong support for Prime Minister Koizumi Jun-ichiro has fairly depended on the overwhelming lack of popularity of his adversaries within the LDP, i.e., the bosses of the factions. He has defined these faction leaders as a group of resistance vis-à-vis reform and by emphasizing his confrontations with Note: Previous strength for the LDP includes the chairman of the Lower House, and previous strength for the them has attempted to distinguish their Independents includes the vice-chairman of the Lower House. political viewpoints from his own. However, in the recent election for the President George W. Bush. But if the all major parties and the focal point has presidency of the LDP, Koizumi won a SDF personnel incur some casualties, it shifted to the actual ability to imple- sweeping victory and the factional lead- will not be easy for the Koizumi Cabinet ment such reforms. Within the LDP ers completely lost whatever influence to make a political recovery. there appears to be no one other than they once had. As a result, the Koizumi The central message of the DPJ is that Koizumi who is capable of shouldering Cabinet no longer has a means of the “reform” of the Koizumi Cabinet is this task. Consequently, if the Koizumi procuring support other than by exhibit- mere rhetoric and there have been no Cabinet’s rate of support drastically ing the achievements of its reform actual results one can point to. The declined, the coalition government efforts. It is eloquently clear that in this DPJ did its utmost in the election cam- would face a severe result in the election general election, voters looked at the paign to convey the impression to voters for the House of Councilors. However, Koizumi Cabinet with cool eyes. In all that it was the party to choose for more one cannot exclude the possibility that likelihood, it will not be easy for radical reform. A decline in support for even prior to the various issues concern- Koizumi to point to any concrete results the Koizumi Cabinet is a prerequisite for ing reform there could be a major politi- of reform by the summer of next year. attracting real concern for their concrete cal focus on the dispatch of troops to Of future concern to the Koizumi prescriptions. At the same time, it is Iraq. If such a situation occurs, as the Cabinet is the issue of the dispatch of unavoidable that the DPJ, which oppos- election approaches attention will be the Self-Defense Forces (SDF) to Iraq. es the dispatch of troops, will vehement- focused on the members of the House of With the recent series of attacks on ly attack the Koizumi Cabinet over this Councilors and the movement within American troops in Iraq in mind, it is issue. The supporters of the New the New Komeito party. Japanese poli- possible that the dispatch of SDF troops Komeito party traditionally took a high- tics is continuing to eradicate remnants will carry a high political risk. In com- ly cautious attitude toward sending of the postwar system, but it will take parison with the response of the troops abroad and this will be another considerable time before the next politi- Japanese government so far, dispatching factor for potential difficulties.
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