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A Statistical Analysis of Television Audience Measurement Systems and Their Implications A statistical analysis of television audience measurement systems and their implications Thesis submitted for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy Agnes Estibals The London School of Economics and Political Science Department of Statistics July 2000 UMI Number: U615199 All rights reserved INFORMATION TO ALL USERS The quality of this reproduction is dependent upon the quality of the copy submitted. In the unlikely event that the author did not send a complete manuscript and there are missing pages, these will be noted. Also, if material had to be removed, a note will indicate the deletion. Dissertation Publishing UMI U615199 Published by ProQuest LLC 2014. Copyright in the Dissertation held by the Author. Microform Edition © ProQuest LLC. All rights reserved. This work is protected against unauthorized copying under Title 17, United States Code. ProQuest LLC 789 East Eisenhower Parkway P.O. Box 1346 Ann Arbor, Ml 48106-1346 7 4 g / c ; I A statistical analysis of television audience measurement systems and their implications Abstract This thesis focuses on the identification of measurement errors in television audience measurement systems and their implications to the television industry. BARB in the UK and Mediamat in France are the case studies selected. Measurement errors are identified by assessing the sampling and non sampling operations implemented in these sample surveys but also by integrating the uses that are made of the estimates yielded and the meaning of the concept measured. The thesis argues that the commodities traded on the television market are not audiences but statistics: namely, television ratings, and that this commodity production function is a distinctive feature of these sample surveys. The means by which these commodities are produced by broadcasters, and priced and bought by agencies on behalf of advertisers are examined. It is shown that prices attached by buyers to these commodities rely on factors that are grounded in economic rather than statistical considerations, and that the commodities are not known at the moment they are priced but need to be projected. It is argued that television audience measurement systems are based on a construct of the audience that relies entirely on assumptions and operational definitions. The consequences of this approach to measurement on the uses to which the data are currently put and on the capacity of the industry for making predictions are examined. It is suggested that the data collection technique implemented in these measurement systems is of decisive importance to the sampling design and the economy of the medium. The validity of the people-metering data collection technique currently in use is assessed. It is argued that this technique imposes the use of samples that are not valid from a statistical viewpoint. Components of variance for audience estimates are identified and a method for searching for patterns in standard errors for audience estimates is proposed. The implications of the findings in the new television environment are developed. 2 A statistical analysis of television audience measurement systems and their implications Acknowledgements I would like to thank the Statistics Department of The London School of Economics and Political Science and Dr Celia Phillips for having given me the opportunity to undertake this research work. I am much indebted to Professor Sonia Livingstone for her extensive comments, invaluable suggestions, guidance and support. Merci a mes parents, Paule et Alain, de m’avoir donne la possibility de poursuivre des etudes universitaires et de leur bonne humeur communicative qui est mon soutien le plus precieux dans toutes mes entreprises. I would like to thank Anabel Fall, partly for the stimulating conversations we had whilst sharing the same desk for many hours, but mostly for having been such a good friend over the last few years, giving me encouragement in moments of despondency. I also would like to express my gratitude to my brother Jean-Marie as well as my old university friends Luc Bataillard, Stephane Hanry and Laure Kermorgant whose faith in my abilities has remained unshakeable over the years. Thanks too to Laurent. The thesis is dedicated to Christopher Barry, without whom I would not have embarked upon this difficult project and who put up with it for the last few years with scarcely a murmur of complaint. His contribution also includes IT support and English grammar nonsense spotting. 3 A statistical analysis of television audience measurement systems and their implications Contents Abstract ........................................................................................................................................ 2 Acknowledgements ................................................................................................................. 3 Contents.......................................................................................................................................... 4 List o f figures.................................................................................................................................. 8 List o f exhibits................................................................................................................................ 9 Some professional terms and abbreviations.............................................................................12 INTRODUCTION.................................................................................................................... 13 1. TELEVISION AUDIENCE MEASUREMENT SYSTEMS AS AN OBJECT OF RESEARCH............................................................................................................................ 16 1.1. Literature review ..............................................................................................16 1.1.1. Public debate ...........................................................................................16 1.1.2. Statistics ....................................................................................................19 1.1.3. Media economics..................................................................................22 1.1.4. Media and communication ................................................................... 24 1.2. C lassification of audience measurement systems ................................27 1.2.1. Typology o f the media industry.......................................................... 27 1.2.2. Market research in the media industry ...............................................30 1.2.3. Audience measurement systems in the media industry .................. 32 1.2.4. Audience measurement systems in the broadcast industry ............ 34 1.3. Research method ................................................................................................37 1.3.1. Research questions, theoretical framework and procedure............ 37 1.3.2. Selection o f case studies....................................................................... 40 1.3.3. Note on professional sources.............................................................. 45 2. MICROECONOMIC FUNCTIONS AND INDUSTRIAL USES..............................48 2.1. Theoretical considerations ® .................................................................... 49 2.1.1. Taxonomy o f public goods.................................................................. 49 2.1.2. Taxonomy o f television goods............................................................ 51 2.1.3. Baumol’s cost disease.............................................................................54 2.2. Production systems for television g o o d s .............................................. 55 2.2.1. Evolution o f the production modes................................................... 56 2.2.2. Statistics as commodities.......................................................................59 2.3. Advertising practices .......................................................................................62 2.3.1. Planning, buying and accounting principles ......................................62 2.3.2. Valuation and pricing o f TVRs ........................................................... 67 2.3.3. Industrial changes and associated ‘audience’ phenomena .............. 70 4 A statistical analysis of television audience measurement systems and their implications 2.4. P r o g r a m m in g p r a c t ic e s ............................................................................ 75 2.4.1. Commercial programming ............................................................. 76 2.4.2. Public programming........................................................................81 2.5. P a y p r o d u c t io n m o d e ................................................... 85 2.5.1. Publicness of pay television goods ................................................ 86 2.5.2. Pay television channels and the advertising market ...................... 89 2.6. C o n c l u s io n s ................................................................................................ 92 3. TELEVISION AUDIENCE CONCEPT AND CONSTRUCTS.......................... 94 3.1. T h e o r e t ic a l considerations (ii)............................................................. 94 3.1.1. Measurement of concepts ...................... 95 3.1.2. Content validity and causal modelling approach ...........................96 3.2. Audience constructs in media and communication ............................98 3.2.1. Features of the television
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