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7Th European Conference on Space Debris JBIS Journal of the British Interplanetary Society VOL. 70 No. 2/3/4 FEBRUARY/MARCH/APRIL 2017 Contents 7TH EUROPEAN CONFERENCE ON SPACE DEBRIS Temporal Analysis of ENVISAT’s Rotational Motion Debris Attitude Motion Measurements and Modelling by Combining Different Observation Techniques Assessment of Post-Manoeuvre Observation Correlation Using Short-Arc Tracklets Optical Measurements Association Using Optimized Boundary Value Initial Orbit Determination Coupled with Markov Clustering Algorithm Method of Predicting and Processing Breakups of Space Objects GESTRA-Technology Aspects and Mode Design for Space Surveillance and Tracking Information-Theoretic Approaches to Space Object Collision Risk Induced by the Uncatalogued Space Debris Population in the Presence of Large Constellations Sensitivity of the Space Debris Environment to Large Constellations and Small Satellites Status of the Space Environment: Current Level of Adherence to the Space Debris Mitigation Fast Re-Entry Deorbitation with Acceptable Risk Level Architecture and First Achievements of a Simulation for the Approach of an Uncooperative Target E.Deorbit - ESA’s Active Debris Removal Mission Airbus DS Vision Based Navigation Solutions Tested on LIRIS Experiment Data ISSN 0007-084X www.bis-space.com Publication Date: 15 August 2017 GUEST EDITOR International Advisory Board Dr Holger Krag, ESA DEPUTY EDITOR Rachel Armstrong, Newcastle University, UK Duncan Law-Green Peter Bainum, Howard University, USA ASSOCIATE EDITORS Stephen Ashworth Stephen Baxter, Science & Science Fiction Writer, UK Keith Cooper Stephen Gamble James Benford, Microwave Sciences, California, USA Paul Gilster Rob Swinney James Biggs, The University of Strathclyde, UK PRODUCTION ASSISTANT Anu Bowman, Foundation for Enterprise Development, California, USA B. Jones Gerald Cleaver, Baylor University, USA PROMOTION G. Norman Charles Cockell, University of Edinburgh, UK JBIS OFFICE Arthur C. Clarke House, 27/29 South Ian A. Crawford, Birkbeck College London, UK Lambeth Road, London, SW8 1SZ, UK Tel: 020 7735 3160 Adam Crowl, Icarus Interstellar, Australia Fax: 020 7582 7167 Email: [email protected] Eric W. Davis, Institute for Advanced Studies at Austin, USA www.bis-space.com Kathryn Denning, York University, Toronto, Canada If you wish to submit a paper our Guidelines for Authors can be obtained Martyn Fogg, Probability Research Group, UK from the JBIS office or online: www.bis- space.com/what-we-do/publications/ Raghavan Gopalaswami, Aerospace Researcher, India writing-papers DISTRIBUTION DETAILS Lamartine Guimarães, Institute for Advanced Studies, Brazil JBIS is distributed worldwide by mail and may be received by annual subscription Mark Hempsell, Hempsell Astronautics Ltd, UK or purchase of single copies. It is available through membership of the British Takuto Ishimatsu, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, USA Interplanetary Society at much reduced rates. Subscription details for members, Les Johnson, Marshall Space Flight Center, USA non-members and libraries are available from the above address. Terry Kammash, University of Michigan, USA JBIS is a publication which promotes the mission of the British Interplanetary Kelvin F. Long, Initiative for Interstellar Studies Society. Opinions expressed in signed articles are those of the contributors and Inoue Makoto, Institute of Astronomy & Astrophysics Academia Sinica, Taiwan do not necessarily reflect the views of the Editor or the Council of the British Interplanetary Society. Security clearance, Gregory L. Matloff, City University New York, USA where necessary, is the responsibility of the author. Koichi Mori, Nagoya University, Japan * * * Richard Obousy, Richard Obousy Consulting LLC, USA Published by the British Interplanetary Society. Registered Company No: 402498. Robert Parkinson, BIS, Aylesbury, UK Registered Charity No: 250556. Printed by Latimer Trend & Company Ltd, George Schmidt, NASA John H Glenn Research Center, Ohio, USA Estover Road, Plymouth, PL6 7PY, England. * * * Paul Schuch, The SETI League Inc, USA Copyright © British Interplanetary Tabitha Smith, Bifrost, USA Society 2017. No part of this magazine may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic or Andreas Tziolas, Variance Dynamical Corporation, USA mechanical, including photocopying or recording by any information storage or Chris Welch, The International Space University, Strasbourg, France retrieval system without prior permission from the Publishers. Friedwardt Winterberg, University of Nevada, Reno, USA JBIS Journal of the British Interplanetary Society VOL. 70 No. 2/3/4 FEBRUARY/MARCH/APRIL 2017 LIST OF CONTENTS 7TH EUROPEAN CONFERENCE ON SPACE DEBRIS 45 Temporal Analysis of ENVISAT’s Rotational Motion Svenja Sommer, J. Rosebrock, D. Cerutti-Maori et al. 52 Debris Attitude Motion Measurements and Modelling by Combining Different Observation Techniques Jiří Šilha, T. Schildknecht, J.-N. Pittet et al. 63 Assessment of Post-Manoeuvre Observation Correlation Using Short-Arc Tracklets J.A. Siminski, T. Flohrer and T. Schildknecht 69 Optical Measurements Association Using Optimized Boundary Value Initial Orbit Determination Coupled with Markov Clustering Algorithm Carlos Yanez, Juan-Carlos Dolado, Pascal Richard et al. 77 Method of Predicting and Processing Breakups of Space Objects Zach Slatton and Diana McKissock 82 GESTRA-Technology Aspects and Mode Design for Space Surveillance and Tracking H. Wilden, C. Kirchner, O. Peters et al. 85 Information-Theoretic Approaches to Space Object Collision K. DeMars and M. Gualdoni 98 Risk Induced by the Uncatalogued Space Debris Population in the Presence of Large Constellations Bruno Revelin and Juan-Carlos Dolado-Perez 105 Sensitivity of the Space Debris Environment to Large Constellations and Small Satellites H.G. Lewis, J. Radtke, A. Rossi et al. 118 Status of the Space Environment: Current Level of Adherence to the Space Debris Mitigation Stefan Frey and Stijn Lemmens 125 Fast Re-Entry Deorbitation with Acceptable Risk Level Elisabet Cid Borobia, Claire Frémeaux and Jean-François Goester 134 Architecture and First Achievements of a Simulation for the Approach of an Uncooperative Target S. Peters, W. Eidel, R. Förstner et al. 143 E.Deorbit - ESA’s Active Debris Removal Mission Robin Biesbroek, Luisa Innocenti, Andrew Wolahan et al. 152 Airbus DS Vision Based Navigation Solutions Tested on LIRIS Experiment Data A. Masson, C. Haskamp, I. Ahrns et al. Mission The British Interplanetary Society promotes the exploration and use of space for the benefit of humanity, by connecting people to create, educate and inspire, and advance knowledge in all aspects of astronautics. 41 IntroductionJournal of the to British this Special Interplanetary Issue on SpaceSociety, Elevators Vol. 70, p.42, 2017 The British Interplanetary Society is proud to publish this special, triple issue edition of JBIS, dealing with the critically important subject of space debris. I would like to thank Dr. Holger Krag, Head of the European Space Agency’s Space Debris Office, for agreeing to act as guest editor for this special edition and selecting papers from the recent conference in Darmstadt that he organised. Holger is a world leading expert in this field and his involvement with this special publication is greatly appreciated Roger Longstaff Editor, Journal of the British Interplanetary Society The production of this issue was sponsored by 42 Journal of the British Interplanetary Society, Vol. 70,David p.43, 2017Raitt 7th European Conference on Space Debris Guest Editorial Since 1957, more than 5,250 space launches have led to an on-orbit population today of more than 23,000 tracked debris objects. Only about 1,200 are functional spacecraft. The remaining are classified as space debris and no longer serve any useful purpose. A large percentage of the routinely tracked objects are fragments from the approximately 290 breakups, explosions and collisions of satellites or rocket bodies that are known to have occurred. An estimated 750,000 objects larger than 1 cm and a staggering 166 million objects larger than 1 mm are thought to reside in commercially and scientifically valuable Earth orbits. Today’s active satellite infrastructure includes telecom, weather, navigation, broadcast and climate-monitoring missions, and these provide a multitude of critical services and daily benefits to citizens and economies. Their loss, due to their orbits being polluted by debris, would severely damage modern society. As the world’s largest scientific gathering dedicated to space debris, The 7th European Conference on Space Debris saw the best-ever attendance by some 350 participants from space organisations, academia and industry who delivered papers on the latest research into the debris threat and on new technologies aimed at mitigating debris creation and reducing the orbital debris population. The 4-day conference took place over the 18th-21st April at the ESA European Space Operations Centre (ESOC) in Darmstadt, Germany. The conference was co-sponsored by ASI (Agenzia Spatiale Italiana), CNES (Centre National d’Etudes Spatiales), DLR (Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt), UKSA (United Kingdom Space Agency), COSPAR (Committee on Space Research), and IAA (Internal Academy of Astronautics). For the first time in the 24-year history of the quadrennial debris conference series, the media briefing was attended by ESA Director General Jan Wörner and Brigitte Zypries, German Federal Minister for Economic Affairs and Energy and German National
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