Analyzing the Food System of Nepal
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Analyzing the Food System of Nepal Foresight for sustainable food systems in the Eastern Gangetic Plains (EGP) 27 September 2018, Kathmandu, Nepal Madhav Karki, Research Leader & Sarba Raj Kahdka, Research Dy. Leader Pawan Paudel & Archana Dhakal; Research Associates Outline • Understanding the food security and food systems in Nepal • Food-water-energy nexus framework • Major drivers impacting food system now and in future • Framework for analysing food system in Nepal • Source of knowledge, information and data • Testing and validation of methods and assumptions • Community of practice to support foresight and scenario analysis National contexts • Population growth and pressure on land (1.35% per annum, 180/sq km; average farm size 0.79 ha) • Land area vis a vis agricultural land – Arable land: 41,210 sq km (28%) of total land – Cultivated land: 30,910 sq kim (75% of arable land) – Irrigated land: 13,310 sq km (43% of cultivated land); monsoon dependent • Agricultural situation (subsistence to semi-commercial farming) • Governance and service delivery system – currently in a restructuring process due to federalization • Heavy out-migration of youths (males and females) leading to heavy burden to women and elders (labour shortage) Distribution of Farm Holdings Cereal balance sheet 2016/2017; (000 M.ton) Surplus Geographic 3. Finger 4. Buck or 1. Paddy 2. Maize 5. Wheat 6. Barley Available Requirement Regions millet wheat Deficit High 77.37 136.8 40.71 4.27 55.79 4.32 319.27 356.59 -37.32 hills Hills 692.27 1,319.38 184.14 3.71 459.27 3.16 2,661.93 2,479.12 182.82 Tarai 2,087.93 325.59 7.74 1.31 996.42 0.352 3,417.14 2,664.52 752.62 Nepal 2,857.57 1,781.78 230.38 9.30 1,511.49 7.83 6,398.35 5,500.23 898.11 General Food Security Situation • National household food security is only 48.2% whereas in rural areas the percentage is only about 38.8% Figure 1 . Percent d istribution of h ousehold f ood i nsecurity of Nepal(Source: NDHS, 2016 ) 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Food Secure Mildly Food Insecure Moderately food Severly Food Insecure Insecure Mountain Hill Terai Figure 2 . Percent d istribution of h ouseholds f ood i nsecurity by g eographical r egions Key challenges of food systems in Nepal • Low levels of production and productivity • Fragmented land holdings and scattered production • Subsistence farming and increased population pressure • Food habit change - increasing consumption of processed food • Weak climate resilience, frequent climatic shocks and damages • High costs of production and soaring food prices • Transportation and distribution problems • Inadequate food buffer stocks & poor distribution system • Decreasing food diversity; low awareness on the need to address food and nutrition security • Poor collaboration and cooperation between research, academia and extension. Vision of the Agricultural Development Strategy (ADS) - 2015-2035 • "A self-reliant, sustainable, competitive, and inclusive agricultural sector that drives economic growth and contributes to improved livelihoods and food and nutrition security leading to food sovereignty." Targets and indicators of ADS: food and nutrition security Vision Indicators Existing situation Target short Target Target long term Compo (2010) term (5 years) Medium term ( 10 years) nent (10 years) Food Food poverty 24% 16% 11% 5% and nutrition Nutrition 41.5% 29% 20% 8% stunting; security Stunting; 31.1% stunting; stunting; 5% underweight 13.7% 20% 13% underweight; 1% wasting 18% women underweight; 5% underweight; wasting; 5% women with low with low BMI wasting; 15% 2% wasting; women with low 13% women BMI BMI with low BMI Existing food systems in the 11 EGP districts (Province 1 and 2) • Most populous districts in the country • Considered as food basket or granary of the country • Average land holding size is higher than the national average of 0.79 ha ~ 1 ha/HH; • Subsistence and semi-commercial agriculture, mostly based on peer learning, intuition and traditional knowledge systems • Semi-commercial; early-consumer stage (e.g., cereals and pulses are produced partly for markets; vegetables and cooking oil is purchased from the markets; agro-biodiversity in decline; • Highly prone to flood and drought disasters including inundation Food, water, energy lenses (Source SEI, 2011) Key drivers of food systems • Climate Change (erratic precipitation, landslides, floods, droughts, inundation, siltation, damage of infrastructures and crops an animals). Tarai, particularly Province 2 is more vulnerable to CC impacts (about 0.8% of agricultural GDP is being lost annually due to climate change and extreme events, CDKN) • Socio-economic change (increase of middle income population and food habit.) • Land use change in Churia foot hills (encroachment, quarrying, deforestation, flooding and siltation in the Tarai rivers) • Institutions and governance system (3 tiers with more power to local government but now not well organised and institutions weak) • Science and technology (high yielding varieties, agricultural implements, availability of Ag. inputs and technology, etc.) Proposed framework for Nepal’s EGP food system scenario analysis Our framework for assessment of the food system follows six steps for doing the food system scenario development; these are based on 4 principles (figure in next slide explains) They are: a. identify the problem, b. define the scope, c. identify the scenario, d. conduct the analysis, e. synthesize the findings, and f. Write the report to share with stakeholders including policy makers. Proposed Framework (adapted from National Academic Press, US) Assumptions for food system scenario in EGP • Things are likely to change due to the better use agriculture technology including high yielding varieties and inputs • Improvement in government and private sector provided input supply and extension services; • Local governments are expected to respond to the needs of farmers by providing both technical support and input delivery • Improved coordination and collaboration among stakeholders • Improvement in agriculture price policy and marketing support by all the 3 tiers of governments Proposed approach and methodology • Literature review –desk top study of existing policies, regulations and laws (problem & scope) • Stakeholder consultation – farmers’ groups; local govt. institutions, provincial and federal ministries and departments (problem and scope) • Interactive analysis of the role of drivers at different levels in order to understand synergistic effects of the drivers (identify the scenario) • Organisation of workshops (2-4) for scenario planning of the EGP Food System • Selection of 2 Palikas in Mohattari district (taking river basin or watershed approach as the interactive role of drivers can be better analyzed using food-water-energy nexus), one close to Churia range and the other bordering to Indian plain area (probably Bardibas and Jaleshwar) • Training/capacity enhancement of research staff • Workshop with policy makers and political leaders to share the outcomes of the research Outputs and Outcome • Food system mapping and collection and collation of data and information for foresight in Nepal • Scoping report on the Scenario Analysis project and 2 case study proposals; • Knowledge-to-policy workshop report Thank you • Questions and Answers Major policies, plans, strategy and programmes Major policies, plans, strategies and programmes related to food and nutrition security : • Constitutional guarantee for right to food • Agricultural Development Strategy (ADS), 2015-2035; • Agro-biodiversity Policy, 2007; • Dairy Development Policy, 2007; • Trade Policy, 2009; • National Agricultural Policy, 2004; • Multi-sectoral Nutrition Plan (MSNP) I & II; 2013-2017 & 2018-2022 • National Seed Policy, 2000; • Agri-business Promotion Policy, 2006; • Nepal Food Security Monitoring System (NeKSAP); and • Agriculture and Food Security Project (AFSP) 2013-2018. .