Impact of Karakoram Highway on the Socio- Economic Development of Gilgit-Baltistan, Pakistan

IMPACT OF KARAKORAM HIGHWAY ON THE SOCIO- ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT OF GILGIT-BALTISTAN, PAKISTAN

By Salman Anwar

AREA STUDY CENTRE (RUSSIA, CHINA & CENTRAL ASIA) UNIVERSITY OF PESHAWAR, PAKISTAN May, 2017

IMPACT OF KARAKORAM HIGHWAY ON THE SOCIO-ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT OF GILGIT- BALTISTAN, PAKISTAN

By Salman Anwar

A dissertation submitted to the University of Peshawar, Pakistan in partial Fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy

May, 2017

AUTHOR’S DECLARATION

I hereby state that my PhD thesis titled “Impact of Karakoram Highway on the Socic-Economic Development of Gilgit-Baltistan, Pakistan” is my own work and has not been submitted to previously by me for taking any degree from the University of Peshawar or anywhere else in the country/world.

At any time if my statement is found to be incorrect even after my graduation the University has the right to withdraw my PhD degree.

By Salman Anwar 31/05/2017

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PLAGIARISM UNDERTAKING I solemnly declare that the research work presented in the thesis titled “Impact of Karakoram Highway on the Socio-Economic Development of Gilgit- Baltistan, Pakistan” is solely my research work with no significant contribution from any other person. Small contribution/help wherever taken has been duly acknowledged and that complete thesis has been written by me. I understand the zero- tolerance policy of the HEC and University of Peshawar towards plagiarism. Therefore, I, as author of above titled thesis declare that no portion of my thesis has been plagiarized and any material used as reference is properly refered/cited. I undertake that if I am found guilty of any formal plagiarism in the above titled thesis even after award of Ph,D., degree, the University reserves the right to withdraw/revoke my Ph.D., degree and that HEC and the University has the to publish my name on the HEC/University website on which names of students are placed who submitted plagiarized thesis.

Student/ Author signature______

Name: Salman Anwar

CERTIFICATE OF APPROVAL This is to certify that the research work presented in this thesis, titled “Impact of Karakoram Highway on the Socio-Economic Development of Gilgit-Baltistan, Pakistan” was conducted by Mr. Salman Anwar under the supervision of Dr. Atta-ur- Rahman. This thesis is submitted, in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of philosophy in the field of Pakistan Study to Area Study Centre, (Russia, China & Central Asia) University of Peshawar.

Student Name: Salman Anwar Signature: ______

Examination committee External Evaluater/Examiner: Signature: ______Dr. Saranjam Baig Head of Department & Assistant Professor Department of Economics Karakoram International University, Gilgit

External Examiner: Signature: ______Dr: Kamran Azam Head of Department Leadership and Managemant Studies (LMS) Faculty of Contemporary Studies (FCS) Iqbal Campus, National Defence University, E-9, Islamabad, Pakistan

Internal Examiner: Signature:______Dr. Samiullah Assistant Professor of Regional Geography Department of Geography, University of Peshawar

Supervisor Name: Dr: Atta-ur-Rahman Signature:______Associate Professor Department of Geography, Universsity of Peshawar

Director: Dr: Shabir Ahmad Khan Signature:______

DEDICATED

MY LOVING PARENTS & HONOURABLE TEACHERS

TABLE OF CONTENT

AUTHOR’S DECLARATION ...... III PLAGIARISM UNDERTAKING ...... IV CERTIFICATE OF APPROVAL ...... V DEDICATED ...... VI TABLE OF CONTENT ...... VII ACKNOWLEDGMENTS ...... XI ABSTRACT ...... XIII LIST OF ACRONYMS/ ABBREVIATIONS ...... XVI LIST OF TABLES ...... XXI LIST OF FIGURES ...... XXIII SECTION -1 ...... 1 INTRODUCTION ...... 1 CHAPTER -1...... 2 INTRODUCTION ...... 2 1.1 INTRODUCTION ...... 2 1.2 SIGNIFICANCE OF THE STUDY ...... 5 1.3 THESIS STRUCTURE ...... 5 SECTION -2 ...... 7 THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK AND LITERATURE REVIEW .... 7 CHAPTER -2...... 8 THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK AND LITERATURE REVIEW .... 8 2.1. INTRODUCTION...... 8 2.2 THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK ...... 9 2.3 HISTORY AND DEVELOPMENT OF KARAKORAM HIGHWAY ...... 11 2.4 EXPANSION PROJECTS OF KARAKORAM HIGHWAY ...... 13 2.5 POPULATION AND AGRICULTURE ...... 14 2.6 EDUCATION AND HEALTH ...... 17 2.7 TRADE AND TOURISM ...... 19 2.8 CONCLUSION ...... 23 SECTION -3 ...... 24 RESEARCH METHODOLOGY ...... 24 CHAPTER -3...... 25 RESEARCH METHODOLOGY ...... 25 3.1 INTRODUCTION ...... 25 3.2 RESEARCH QUESTIONS ...... 25 3.3 RESEARCH HYPOTHESES ...... 25 3.4 PURPOSE OF THE STUDY ...... 25

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3.5 RESEARCH OBJECTIVES ...... 26 3.6 RESEARCH VARIABLES ...... 26 3.7 METHODS OF DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS...... 28 3.7.1 Sample Selection ...... 28 3.7.2 Sample Size ...... 29 3.7.3 Tabulation ...... 29 3.7.4 Presentation ...... 29 3.7.5 Interpretation and explanation of data ...... 30 3.8 CONCLUSION ...... 30 CHAPTER -4...... 31 ENVIRONMENTAL SETTING OF THE STUDY AREA ...... 31 4.1 INTRODUCTION ...... 31 4.2 LOCATION OF GILGIT-BALTISTAN ...... 31 4.3 HISTORY OF THE STUDY AREA ...... 31 4.4 CURRENT STATUS OF GILGIT-BALTISTAN REGION ...... 35 4.5 PHYSIOGRAPHY OF GILGIT-BALTISTAN ...... 36 4.6 SOIL OF GILGIT-BALTISTAN ...... 37 4.7 CLIMATE OF GILGIT-BALTISTAN ...... 38 4.8 KKH AND CHINA PAKISTAN ECONOMIC CORRIDOR (CPEC) ..... 43 4.9 CONCLUSION ...... 45 SECTION – 4 ...... 46 ANALYSIS, RESULTS & DISCUSSION ...... 46 CHAPTER -5...... 47 IMPACT OF KKH ON POPULATION ...... 47 5.1 INTRODUCTION ...... 47 5.2 POPULATION STRUCTURE AND GROWTH ...... 47 5.3 DISTRIBUTION AND DENSITY OF POPULATION ...... 51 5.4 POPULATION AND KKH ...... 55 5.5 CONCLUSION ...... 56 CHAPTER -6...... 57 IMPACT OF KKH ON LAND USE AND AGRICULTURE ...... 57 6.1 INTRODUCTION ...... 57 6.2 IMPACT OF KKH ON LAND USE LAND COVER ...... 58 6.2.1 Land Use Land Cover of 1996 ...... 58 6.2.2 Land Use Land Cover of 2016 ...... 61 6.2.3 Land Use Land Cover change analysis of 1996 and 2016 ...... 64 6.3 IMPACT OF KKH ON AGRICULTURE ...... 67 6.3.1 Cropping Zones and Cropping Pattern ...... 68 DOMINANT CROPS ...... 69 DOUBLE CROP ZONE...... 69 1200-1600 ...... 69 CHILAS, JAGLOT, GILGIT ...... 69 WHEAT, MAIZE, BARLEY, VEGETABLE, CLOVER, ...... 69

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MARGINAL DOUBLE CROP ZONE-A ...... 69 1600-2000 ...... 69 GHANCHE, SKARDU...... 69 WHEAT, MAIZE, BARLEY, VEGETABLE, CLOVER, MILLET .. 69 MARGINAL DOUBLE CROP ZONE-B ...... 69 2000-2400 ...... 69 KARIMABAD, YASIN, KHARMANG, KHAPLU ...... 69 WHEAT, MILLET, BARLEY, TURNIP, VEGETABLE ...... 69 6.3.2 Impact of KKH on Agriculture production ...... 69 6.3.3 Mechanization of Agriculture ...... 74 6.3.4 Processing of Agricultural products ...... 78 6.3.5 Marketing of Agricultural Products...... 78 6.3.6 Marketing of Agricultural products in Gilgit-Baltistan ...... 81 6.3.7 New Lands and irrigation means ...... 82 6.3.8 Economic Management Improving ...... 82 6.3.9 Impact of KKH on Livestock ...... 83 6.3.10 Implications for Agricultural development ...... 85 6.4 THE ROLE OF PRIVATE SECTOR IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF AGRICULTURE IN GILGIT-BALTISTAN ...... 85 6.5 CONCLUSION ...... 86 CHAPTER -7...... 88 IMPACT OF KKH ON EDUCATION AND HEALTH ...... 88 7.1 INTRODUCTION ...... 88 7.2 IMPACT OF KKH ON EDUCATION SECTOR ...... 88 7.2.1 Growth and Development of Education Sector ...... 90 7.2.2 Number of Schools by district and Gender ...... 92 7.2.3 Literacy Rate and School Enrollments ...... 93 7.2.4. Educational institutions, students enrolments and Teachers ...... 94 7.2.5 Enrollment ratio in high school and college level ...... 99 7.2.6 Karakoram International University, Gilgit ...... 101 7.2.7 Steps towards Technical Education ...... 101 7.2.8 Education and Employment ...... 102 7.2.9 Constraints in Promoting Education ...... 102 7.2.9.1 Lack of basic requirements ...... 102 7.2.9.2 Quality...... 103 7.2.9.3 Dropout Ratio ...... 103 7.2.9.4 Higher Education ...... 104 7.3 IMPACT OF KKH ON HEALTH SECTOR ...... 104 7.3.1 Development of Health Sector ...... 107 7.3.2 Mother and Children Health Facilities...... 107 7.3.3 Fertility and Family Planning ...... 109 7.3.4 Infectious Diseases...... 109 7.3.5 Non-Contagious Diseases ...... 110 7.3.6 Starvation and Nutrient deficiency ...... 111 7.3.7 Constraints in Health Sector ...... 112

7.3.7.1 Accessibility and Health facilities ...... 112 7.3.7.2 Limited Availability of Skilled Staff ...... 114 7.3.7.3 Female Human Resources Development in Health Sector ...... 116 7.5 CONCLUSION ...... 117 CHAPTER -8...... 118 IMPACT OF KKH ON TRADE AND TOURISM ...... 118 8.1 INTRODUCTION ...... 118 8.2 IMPACT OF KKH ON TRADE ...... 118 8.2.1 Northern Areas Traders Cooperative Limited (NATCL) ...... 119 8.2.2 Trade with other provinces of the Country ...... 122 8.2.3 Trade and tourism potential...... 122 8.2.4 Trade development of Gilgit-Baltistan...... 123 8.2.5 Repercussions of trade deficit ...... 125 8.2.6 Transportation Problems ...... 125 8.2.9 CONSTRAINTS IN TRADE BETWEEN GILGIT-BALTISTAN AND XINGJIAN ...... 127 8.2.10 Financial Problems ...... 130 8.3. EXPLORATION OF OTHER RESOURCES ...... 131 8.4 HYDEL POWER GENERATION ...... 134 8.5 IMPACT OF KKH ON TOURISM ...... 138 8.5.1 The Role of Gilgit-Baltistan Government in Tourism Development ...... 141 8.5.1.1 Development of Tourism ...... 144 8.5.2 Voyage Tourism ...... 145 8.5.3 Community Commitment in Tourism Development ...... 148 8.5.4 Cultural Activities ...... 149 8.5.5 Preservation of Balteet Fort ...... 150 8.5.6 Encounters in Tourism ...... 150 8.5.7 Unpredictable Accessibility ...... 151 8.5.8 Inadequate Infrastructure ...... 151 8.6 CONCLUSION ...... 152 CHAPTER -9...... 155 FINDINGS, SUMMARY AND CONCLUSION...... 155 9.1 MAJOR FINDINGS ...... 155 9.2 SUMMARY AND CONCLUSION ...... 158 REFERENCES ...... 161 ANNEXURES ...... 176

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS All praise to Allah, the Almighty who gave me the courage, ability, health and strength to complete this thesis.

I would like to express my deep and sincere gratitude to my honorable supervisor Dr. Atta-ur-Rahman, Associate Professor at Department of Geography, University of Peshawar. Under whose guidance, consistent encouragement and devotion I worked. Without his outstanding knowledge, innovative experience and support, this work would never have been completed.

I am grateful to all of my Professors who taught me at Area Study Centre (Russia, China and Central Asia), University of Peshawar including Prof. Dr. Muhammad Anwar Khan (Late), Prof. Dr. Sarfraz Khan, Prof: Dr. Shabir Ahmad Khan , Prof. Dr. Babar Shah, Prof. Dr. Zahid Anwar and Mr. Juma Khan Sufi for their intellectual and academic guidance.

I am grateful to the staff of libraries that I had consulted during my research including Area Study Centre (Russia, China and Central Asia), Central Library, Department of Geography, Pakistan Study Centre, University of Peshawar, Public Library Gilgit, Central Library Karakoram International University, Gilgit, Directorate of Archives and libraries Peshawar, for their cooperation and support.

I am deeply grateful to Mr. Shah Nawaz Khan (Controller Military Account) Gilgit- Baltistan, for his generous hospitality and moral support during my stay at Gilgit. I am also thankful to Mr. Abdullah Jan (General Manager KKH), Mr. Sherbaz Barcha (Librarian), Mr. Muhammad Nazeem (Director of Health, Gilgit-Baltistan), Mr. Afzal Khan (Education Department, Gilgit), Dr. Karim Panah (AKESP), Mr. Kifayat (Tourism department) for their support in data collection.

To mention few of them, I express sincere gratitude to my friends and colleagues Dr. Sami Ullah, Mr. Saud Khattak, Mr. Asfandyar Ahmad, Mr. Zeeshan Aziz, Mr. Izhar Ahmad, Mr. Muhammad Shiraz, Mr. Ali Ahmad, Mr. Nouman Khan, Mr. Muhammad Haroon, Mr. Zahir khan, Mr. Muhammad Amjad and Mrs. Tahira Amjad and many more who accorded intellectual and moral support during my research work.

Special thanks to my parents especially my mother who has always been very supportive and a source of inspiration to me. I am also very grateful to my brothers Haji Adnan Anwar, Irfan Anwar, Dr. Farhan Anwar, Hafiz Abdul Basit, my sister, wife and

children, who have been very encouraging, cooperative and accommodating throughout this Research Project.

Salman Anwar

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ABSTRACT

This study attempts to evaluate the impact Karakoram Highway (KKH) on the socio- economic development of Gilgit-Baltistan, Pakistan. It is a vast, mountainous and remote area in the extreme north of Pakistan extend between 340 40’ to 370 0’ North latitude and 720 30’ to 780 0’ East longitude. Geographically, the study area (Gilgit-Baltistan) is bounded in the North-West by Wakhan Corridor of Afghanistan, China in the North-East, Jammu and Kashmir in the East, Azad Jammu and Kashmir in the South-East, whereas the province of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa of Pakistan in the south and west. The climate of the region is characterized by warm/hot summer and cool/cold winter.

The total area of Gilgit-Baltistan is about 72,496 km2. For the purpose of administration, it has been divided into seven districts i.e. Gilgit, Diamer, Hunza-Nagar, Ghanche, Ghizer, Skardu and Astore. Significance of the area is evident from its geographical location as it is the juncture of Central Asia, China and South Asia. However, this important area remained cut off from the rest of the country (Pakistan) until the inception of Karakoram Highway (KKH) in 1978. Their only source of livelihood was local agricultural production which was insufficient for the whole population. Due to scarcity of victuals large number of people faced starvation during the snowy winter season. The idea of constructing this gigantic highway was proposed after the boundary settlement with China in 1963. Construction of KKH started in 1966 aiming at two main objectives; to link the vast area of Gilgit-Baltistan with the rest of Pakistan and to develop a land route to China.

This study is an attempt to sort out impacts of KKH and to answer the question ‘what are the impacts of KKH on the socio-economic development of Gilgit-Baltistan, Pakistan’. To achieve the task four objectives were designed. Primarily, to explore the growth and development of KKH, secondly, to assess the impact of KKH on the socio-economic condition of Gilgit-Baltistan, thirdly, to find out the future prospects of KKH for the socio- economic development of the study area. To carry out this study, six variables including population, land use and agriculture, education, health, trade and tourism were selected and tested. Keeping in view purpose of the study, it was essential to collect all the necessary data for the achievement of objectives. Data were collected both from primary and secondary sources. Data pertaining to selected variables were collected pre and post KKH as available for the whole area. The collected data were analysed and presented in the form of maps, statistical diagrams and tables.

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The analysis reveals that after the completion of KKH the inhabitants of Gilgit- Baltistan took a sigh of relief and positive changes occurred in the overall socio-economic sectors. It was explored from the analysis that the population of the districts along KKH has increased manifold. The agriculture and livestock sector was a traditional source of livelihood, but after the construction of KKH a paradigm shift has been recorded by introducing modern agricultural techniques and motivation for the farmers to cultivate more rewarding cash crops. The analysis further revealed that during 1996 to 2016 land use land cover in the three sample districts located along the KKH has shown radical changes. It was found that area under built-up environment was increased, contrary to this area under farmland decreased. Similarly, positive change has been noted in area under forest cover.

It was found from the analysis that after the construction of KKH a rapid progress in education and health sector has been registered. The literacy ratio was rapidly increased from 14.7% in 1981 to 37.8% in 1998 and further increased to 52.0 percent in 2012. However, a recorded twelve-time increase is registered in women education, from 1981 (3%) to 2012 (36%). Nevertheless, the women literacy ratio is still very low in Diamer and Astore districts. Similarly, in Gilgit-Baltistan, the number of Government health institutions has increased. However, the limited number of trained doctors is still an issue to be overcome. The analysis revealed that the performance of maternal and child health services in Gilgit-Baltistan lags behind and appears to have been weak.

The analysis revealed that there is expanding trade and commence potentials due to KKH and greater retention of economic value in the local economy is expected to further boost-up. However, it needs special attention of National Highway Authority to take care of its maintenance and to mitigate frequent landslides along the KKH. The study explores that prior to the construction of KKH the latitudes of trade between Pakistan and China through ancient silk route was negligible. However, after the inception of KKH, the trade between Pakistan and China has been boost-up. The recent development in the form of China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), where KKH is part of CPEC project provides a land route to China and Gilgit-Baltistan to warm-water of Arabian Sea and expected to further boost-up the trade between China and Pakistan in the years ahead.

It was found from the analysis that KKH has opened avenues for the local population. It is high time that the ministry of tourism and culture needs to develop tourism sector on priority basis and un-earthen this precious treasury of Gilgit-Baltistan. It was found from the

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analysis that prior to the construction of KKH, poor road network, lack of transport facility, absence of hotels and restaurants had been hurdles in promoting tourism. This study, however, provides policy guidelines for promoting socio-economic development of this underdeveloped area.

LIST OF ACRONYMS/ ABBREVIATIONS ADB Asian Development Bank

ADP Annual Development Programme

AIDAB Australian International Development Assistance Bureau

AIOU Allama Iqbal Open University

AJK Azad Jammu Kashmir

AKCSP Agha Khan Cultural Services – Pakistan

AKDN Aga Khan Development Network

AKESP Agha Khan Education Service – Pakistan

AKHSP Agha Khan Health Service – Pakistan

AKRSP Agha Khan Rural Support Program

ALF Agriculture Livestock and Forestry

AMC Army Medical Corps

ARI Acute Respiratory Infection

BHU Basic Health Units

BISP Benazir Income Support Program

BWB Basin Water Board

CAA Civil Aviation Authority

CAR Central Asian Republics

CBOs Community Based Organizations

CDM Clean Development Mechanism

COPD Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease

CPEC China-Pakistan Economic Corridor

CPR Contraceptive prevalence Rate

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CRBC China Roads and Bridges Corporation

CSOs Civil Society Organizations

DOAH Department of Animal Husbandry

DoH Department of Health

DOMD Department of Mineral Development

ESGO Empowerment and Self Governance Order

FAO Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations

FAP First Aid Post

FATA Federal Administered Tribal Areas

FBR Federal Bureau of Revenue

FLCF First Level Care Facilities

FTA Free Trade Agreement

FWO Frontier Works Organization

GB Gilgit-Baltistan

GBAD Gilgit Baltistan Agriculture Department

GBLA Gilgit Baltistan Legislative Assembly

GDP Gross Domestic Product

GEMCEP Gemstone Corporation of Pakistan

GoGB Government of Gilgit-Baltistan

GOP Government of Pakistan

GSP Geological Survey of Pakistan

GTZ German Agency for Technical Cooperation

HMIS Health Management Information System

IDPs Internally Displaced Persons

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IFA Individual Financial Assistance

IFR Instrument Flight Rules

IMF International Monetary Fund

IMR Infant Mortality Rate

IUCN International Union for Conservation of Nature

IWRM Integrated Water Resource Management

JICA Japan International Cooperation Agency

KAGB Ministry of Kashmir Affairs and Gilgit-Baltistan

KARINA Karakoram Agriculture Research Institute for Northern Areas

KIU Karakoram International University

KKH Karakoram Highway

KVO Khunjerab Village Organization

LG & RD Local Government and Rural Development

LHVs Lady Health Visitors

LHWs Lady Health Workers

LOC Line of Control

LSOs Local Support Organizations

MCH Maternal and Child Health

MDGs Millennium Development Goals

MFPL Mountain Fruit Private Limited

MMR Maternal Mortality Rate

MoF Ministry of Finance

MoT Ministry of Tourism

MOU Memorandum of understanding

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MTBF Medium-Term Budget Framework

MTDF Medium-Term Development Framework

MW Megawatt

NACCI Northern Areas Chamber of Commerce

NAEP Northern Areas Education Project

NAFD Northern Areas Forest Department

NAGMA Northern Areas Gemstone and Mineral Associate

NAP National Aviation Policy

NAPWD Northern Areas Public Works department

NAPWD Northern Areas Public Works Department

NASSD Northern Areas Strategy for Sustainable Development

NASSD Northern Areas Gemstone and Mineral Association

NATCL Northern Areas Trading Cooperation Limited

NATCO Northern Areas Transportation Company

NATD Northern Areas Tourism Department

NATDB Northern Areas Tourism Development Board

NEAS National Education Assessment System

NGO Non-Governmental Organization

NHA National Highway Authority

NWFP North West Frontier Province

OBOR One Belt One Road

PCSIR Pakistan Council of Scientific and Industrial Research

PDCN Professional Development center of Northern Areas

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PMDC Pakistan Mineral Development Corporation

PPHI People’s Primary Health Care Initiative

PPIB Private Power Infrastructure Board

PTDC Pakistan Tourism development Corporation

RTA Road Transport Authority

SCO Shanghai Cooperation Organization

SDP Sost Dry Port

SMEs Small and Medium Enterprises

SP Social Protection

SRDPT Silk Route Dry Port Trust

TB Tuberculosis

TDP Tourism Development Plan

TFR Total Fertility Rate

TVE Technical and Vocational Education

UNESCO United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization

V/WO Village and Women Organizations

VOs Villages Organizations

WAPD Water and Power Department

WAPDA Water and Power Development Authority

WMD-AD Water Management Directorate of the Agriculture Department

WRMDD Water Resource Management and Development Directorate

WSSP Water Supply & Sanitation Program

WUO Water User Organization

LIST OF TABLES

S.NO Title Page No

2.1 Up-gradation project of Khunjerab-Raikot Section 14

5.1 Population and Area of Gilgit- Baltistan 48

5.2 Population growth of the district along KKH 50

5.3 Growth rates of districts along KKH 51

5.4 Population indicators in Gilgit-Baltistan 54

6.1 Gilgit-Baltistan, Land Use Land Cover of three sample districts, 1996 60

6.2 Gilgit-Baltistan, Land Use Land Cover of three sample districts, 2016 62

6.3 Gilgit-Baltistan, Land Use Land Cover Change Detection in three sample Districts, 1996-2016 65

6.4 Gilgit-Baltistan, Cropping Zones and Cropping Pattern 69

6.5 Gilgit-Baltistan, Agriculture Production, 2012-13 70

6.6 Gilgit-Baltistan, Area and Production of Important fruits 71

6.7 Gilgit-Baltistan, Estimated Area and Production of Table Potato 2008-10 72

6.8 Certified Seed Potato Production by Private seed Companies 2008-10 73

6.9 Major Crops and Fruits yields in Gilgit-Baltistan 74

6.10 Gilgit-Baltistan, Comparative status of Agriculture machinery, 1994 and 2012 75

6.11 Gilgit-Baltistan, Comparative status of livestock census 1996 and 2006 84

7.1 Enrolment in Govt, NEF and private schools by Region, District, Location, School Level and Gender 94

7.2 Gilgit-Baltistan, Province/State-wise distribution of reserved Seats, 2012-13 100

7.3 Gilgit-Baltistan, Summary of District Wise Health Facilities 106

7.4 MCH Outputs at Health Facilities 108

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7.5 Percentage of Hypertension Patients 111

7.6 Gilgit-Baltistan, Access to Health Facilities, 2011-12 114

7.7 Human Resource Health Department of G-B 115

8.1 Revenue earned at custom check post, 2001 119

8.2 NATCL, payments paid to Share-holders 120

8.3 Year-wise ceiling Before and After the Construction of KKH 121

8.4 Imports from China via land and Sea Routes 128

8.5 Trade Balance between Pakistan, China and Central Asian Republics

(2012) 129

8.6 Important hydro-electric sites in Gilgit-Baltistan 135

8.7 Details of Feasible Scheme for Hydro-electric Generation 135

8.8 Details of divisdends paid to share holders by NATCL 137

8.9 Gilgit-Baltistan, Importants Lakes, 139

8.10 Gilgit-Baltistan, Importants Passess, 140

8.11 Gilgit-Baltistan, International Tourits Arrivals 145

8.12 Gilgit-Baltistan, Mountaintops and Excursions 147

8.13 Public Gardens in Gilgit-Baltistan, 148

8.14 Comparison of number of Tourists, 150

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LIST OF FIGURES

S.NO Title Page No

1.1 Location map of KKH 3

1.2 Overview of KKH 4

3.1 Research Process 27

4.1 Gilgit-Baltistan region 36

4.2 Gilgit-Baltistan, Physical Pattern 37

4.3 Mean monthly rainfall recorded at Astore, Chilas and Gilgit 39

4.4 Mean deviation from annual rainfall in Gilgit-Baltistan (1980-2012 40

4.5 Gilgit-Baltistan mean monthly rainfall (January to December for a period from 1980-2012) 42

4.6 Annual Mean Maximum Temperature of Gilgit-Baltistan (1980-12) 43

5.1 Gilgit-Baltistan, District-wise population in 1998 49

5.2 Gilgit-Baltistan, District-wise Area versus population in 1998 49

5.3 District-wise average household size and its comparison with Gilgit-Baltistan province and Pakistan as per recent population census, 1998 50

5.4 Gilgit-Baltistan, district-wise average annual population growth rate and its comparison with Gilgit-Baltistan and Pakistan as per recent population census 1998 51

5.5 Gilgit-Baltistan, density of Population 1998 and 2015 52

5.6 Gilgit-Baltistan, Change in population density 1998 and population 53

5.7 Gilgit-Baltistan, Change in Population 1951, 1961, 1972, 1981, 1998 and 2015 55

5.8 Gilgit-Baltistan, District-wise distribution of 1998 and 2015 population 56

6.1 Landsat 5 multi-spectral image of District Hunza-Nagar, Gilgit and Diamer of September/November 1996 59

6.2 Landsat 5 multi-spectral classified image of District Hunza-Nagar, Gilgit and Diamer of September/November 1996 60

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6.3 Gilgit-Baltistan, Land Use Land Cover of three sample districts 1996 61

6.4 Multi-spectral pre-processed Landsat 8 image of three Sample districts

of Gilgit-Baltistan of September/November 2016 62

6.5 Gilgit-Baltistan, Landsat 8 classified image of Land Use Land Cover of three sample districts of November 2016 63

6.6 Land Use/Land Cover of the Study area 2016 as per Landsat image of

November 2016 64

6.7 Gilgit-Baltistan, Land Use Land Cover Change Detection in three sample districts from 1996 and 2016 66

6.8 Land Use Land Cover Changes in three sample districts, 1996 and 2016 66

6.9 Gilgit-Baltistan, Changes in number of livestock in 1996 and 2006 as per livestock and agriculture census 85

7.1 Gilgit-Baltistan, number of government, National Education Foundation and private schools by districts after Directorate of Education, Gilgit-Baltistan, 2012-13 93

7.2 Gilgit-Baltistan, number of boys and girls schools 95

7.3 Gilgit-Baltistan, Sector-wise share of educational institutions, students enrolments and percentage of teachers, 2012-13. 96

7.4 Gilgit-Baltistan, Comparison of Literacy by Rural-Urban and regions, 2012-13 97

7.5 Gilgit-Baltistan, Adult Literacy in percentage by Gender and its comparison with other provinces, 2012-13 98

7.6 Gilgit-Baltistan, numbers of Government Colleges, teaching staff, student’s enrollment and Students- Teacher Ratio, 2012-13 99

7.7 Gilgit-Baltistan, Distribution of Health Institutions 107

7.8 Child Malnutrition ratio in Gilgit-Baltistan, and its comparison with other regions 112

8.1 Physical Distances and Reasons for Overtime Storage at Sost Dry Port 126

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SECTION -1 INTRODUCTION

CHAPTER -1 INTRODUCTION

1.1 INTRODUCTION

This study analyses the impact of Karakoram Highway (KKH) on the socio- economic development of Gilgit-Baltistan, Pakistan. KKH is a high altitude road located in the northern part of Pakistan. KKH crosses the lofty Karakoram Mountain ranges and links Pakistan’s area of Gilgit-Baltistan with Xinjiang (Sinkiang) province of China (Figure 1.1). The total length of KKH is approximately 1,300 km and extends from Hassanabdal (Pakistan) to Kashgar in China (Morozowa, 1996; Figure 1.2). KKH is 32 feet wide with 24 bridges built over the mighty Indus River at various locations (NHA, 2010). It was jointly constructed by Pakistan and China in 12-year period (1966-1978). In the region, new roads were built and the inaccessible areas linked with KKH. Moreover, the main purpose of KKH was to widen the frontiers of trade between Pakistan and China, specially the bordering areas of both the countries i.e. Gilgit-Baltistan and Xinjiang (Burki, 2011).

In Gilgit-Baltistan province, there are seven administrative districts namely Gilgit, Skardu, Diamer, Ghizer, Ghanche, Astor and Hunza. Recently the number of districts has been raised to ten by including Shigar, Kharmang and Nagar. Out of these districts, KKH longitudinally passes through the districts of Hunza (in the north), Gilgit (in the centre) and Diamer (in the south). Gilgit is the capital city of Gilgit-Baltistan province. According to 1998 census, the total population of Gilgit- Baltistan was 884,000 (GOP, 2001). Before the construction of KKH, in the vast area of Gilgit-Baltistan only 417,000 people were living with a population density of mere 6 persons per square km (GOP 1982). Such low population distribution is attributed to the harsh climatic condition, inhospitable mountainous terrain and lack of intra and inter-regional accessibility with rest of the country. After the construction of KKH, the Government of Pakistan has given special attention to Gilgit-Baltistan region. Parallel to this, people in Gilgit-Baltistan started migration from and to other regions and observed the socio-economic pattern. Such factor has largely contributed and as a result KKH has brought manifold socio-economic changes in Gilgit-Baltistan

Figure 1.1, Location map of KKH & Gilgit-Baltistan modified after Said, 2005

Before the construction of KKH, the scarce agricultural land and livestock ranching was the major source of income of people living in Gilgit-Baltistan. The system of farming was subsistence and crude tools and techniques were applied. After the construction of KKH, shift in transfer of technology was occurred due to accessibility and construction of link roads to the main spine Karakoram highway. The farmers of Gilgit-Baltistan are now aware of agriculture mechanization and currently equipped with modern agricultural tools and machinery. Despite the engagement of labour force in various economic sectors, more than half (53 %) of the total household income still depend on farmland production, livestock exchange, dairy farming and forestry. In Gilgit-Baltistan, population is growing at a rapid pace and scarce agricultural and forest land is being gradually consumed by the built-up environment.

This is one of the major challenges posed attributed to the KKH. Education is a process of bringing into action a potential positive change in human being. Educated and healthy environment reduces production losses and utilizes full use of available natural resources. In Gilgit-Baltistan, prior to KKH the literacy ratio was very low and 3

health facilities were limited to only few major settlements. In the entire region, there were only 10 dispensaries, 3 middle schools and two hospitals (Malik, 1998). After the construction of KKH, a positive change in both education and health sector has been observed in Gilgit-Baltistan. It has been estimated that the current literacy ratio of Gilgit-Baltistan is 52% as compare to as low as 3% in 1981 (GOP 1982). However, an improvement in the health sector has been noted and people are provided with basic health facilities at village level.

Figure 1.2, Overview of KKH from Hassanabdal (Pakistan) to Kashgar (China) modified after Stone, 2008

Gilgit-Baltistan has great potential of tourism and trade. It is a heaven on the earth for the tourists, where lofty mountains, over 8,000 m peaks, numerous valley glaciers, beautiful alpine meadows, thousands of springs, beautiful waterfalls, fertile and lush green valleys, super and supra-glacial lakes, rich culture and snow clad mountains etc. attract tourists from all over the world (Bonavia, 2004). Besides tourism Gilgit-Baltistan has a great potential of trade and provides a land route to the People Republic of China. Recently, the KKH is now a small component of a mega project known as China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) passes through Districts of Hunza-Nagar, Gilgit and Diamer of Gilgit-Baltistan. Under the CPEC, special economic zones and dry ports is also featured and expected to open several socio- economic avenues for the people of Gilgit-Baltistan.

1.2 SIGNIFICANCE OF THE STUDY

In this study an attempt has been made to assess the impact of KKH on the socio- economic development of Gilgit-Baltistan. So far, no comprehensive research has been under taken to appraise the impact of KKH on the socio-economic development of Gilgit-Baltistan. The importance of this study is evident from the geographical location of KKH. It links the South and Central Asian states and also provides the shortest land route for China and Central Asian states to the Arabian Sea. The highway has been a very important means for bringing far-reaching changes to the economy and society. The ideas of New Silk Roads, Central Asia Regional Economic Corridor (CAREC), China’s One Belt One Road (OBOR) and China- Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) are the recent regional examples. This research work has not only filled the gap in the existing literature but also provided baseline data for analyzing the trends and prospects of socio- economic conditions in Gilgit-Baltistan.

Roads and Highways play a significant role in the modern world for the socio-economic growth and development of a society. The construction of KKH has brought tremendous changes in the socio-economic conditions of the people of Gilgit- Baltistan. Prior to the construction of KKH, a journey that would take weeks has now become possible in hours. The society and economy which was regarded as landlocked has now become open for the rest of the world. Living standard of the people has improved and a wave of prosperity has spread in the entire area especially in the fields of education, health, trade and tourism. This research study argues that KKH has positively affected the socio-economic development of Gilgit-Baltistan and has a great potential of bringing socio-economic uplift in the area.

1.3 THESIS STRUCTURE

This research thesis is divided into nine chapters. Chapter one discusses the introduction, justification of the study and structure and cauterization of the study. Chapter two is focusing on the conceptual framework and literature review, whereas chapter three discusses the research methodology adopted to carry out this study. Chapter four elaborates the Environmental setting of the study area. The next four chapters are given to analysis, results and discussions on the selected variables. The Impact of KKH on the population of Gilgit-Baltistan is analyzed in Chapter five.

Chapter six discusses the impact of KKH on the land use and Agricultural development of Gilgit-Baltistan. Chapter seven describes the impact of KKH on the Educational and Health sector of Gilgit-Baltistan. Chapter eight analyzes the impact of KKH on the trade and tourism development of Gilgit-Baltistan. The Summary, findings and recommendations are given in ninth chapter.

SECTION -2 THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK AND LITERATURE REVIEW

Chapter -2 Theoretical Framework and Literature Review

2.1. INTRODUCTION

The intensive literature reveals that no comprehensive scientific research work is available on the proposed research area. However, brief reviews of some of the valuable scattered works relevant to the proposed research were found. This chapter is divided into eight sections. Section one deals with the introduction of KKH in the Gilgit-Baltistan region, whereas section two elaborate the theoretical framework. Section three discusses the history and growth of KKH. Section four highlights the expansion projects of KKH. Section five describes the population and agriculture in general as well as particularly on Gilgit-Baltistan region, whereas section six discusses the literature about education and health sector in general and specific to the study area. Section seven describes the literature about trade and tourism in Gilgit- Baltistan. Section eight is the concluding lines about the available literature on the study area.

Ahmad (1980) in an article ‘Along the Karakoram Highway’ narrates his travel account after two years (1980) of the newly built 1300 km Karakoram Highway. The author highlighted that the road throughout the valleys from Thakot to Khunjerab top (a distance about 616 km) is wide enough for dual carriage, and as such, plays a vital role in regional prosperity, trade and commerce between Pakistan and China. This work is also first-hand information relevant to this research work as the author travelled immediately after the construction of KKH and also observed the feelings of the people Gilgit-Baltistan.

Khan (1986) in an article ‘Evaluation of Transport network in Karakoram Himalayan Region of Pakistan’ argue that the Karakoram region constitute the resource frontier region controlling the catchment area of the mighty Indus river, so vital for hydro-power generation and irrigating fertile plains of Punjab and Sindh on national front of Pakistan. On the international scene, they control the present and potential lines of transport corridors and communication with China and Central Asia. The famous old “Silk route”, after passing through Tarim, Khotan and Yarkand traversed the Pamir, turned southward and moved through this region along

the Indus river touching Gulmet, Chalt and Gujal. After descending the mountains, the route led across the plains of the Punjab and Sindh to Arabian Sea from where the merchandise was taken to far flung, areas by ocean fleets. The present “Karakoram Highway” is part of China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) a modern substitute of the “Old Silk Route”.

Hedin (1994) in a book titled ‘The Silk Road’ elaborated that when author of this book met the Chinese vice-secretary for foreign affairs, he suggested that Chinese government must develop its western territory in order to bring peace and stability. This suggestion resulted in the Chinese government mandate to Hedin to lead an expedition to Sinkiang to survey the possibilities for routes to develop highways. KKH is one of those Highways, which Hedin indicated to the Chinese authorities. Therefore, it is also a very relevant book for this research work.

Cook and Butz (2011) in an article ‘Narratives of Accessibility and Social Change in Shimshal, Northern Pakistan’ argue that according to local population in 1970 the accessibility between settlements in Hunza valley and Shimshal valley took one week by walking. However, the accessibility improved and in 1980 week long journeys was reduced to 4 days and then finally in 1985 new bridges was built to connect with KKH and distance further shrink to 20 hours. Earlier, Shimshal valley was considered as the most remote community.

2.2 THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK

The purpose of this research was to explore the impact of KKH on the socio- economic development of Gilgit-Baltistan, Pakistan. It is fact that development of infrastructure is an important factor of socio-economic change. Sustainable road infrastructure and accessibility facilitate trade activities, market orientation and reducing the urban-rural difference. It is accessibility which bring people close to one another and share their ideas, exchange developmental indicators and enhance socio- economic development by mutual collaborative linkages for inter and intra-regional prosperity.

The construction of KKH was a dream and mega project of Pakistan and China. It was initiated to link Pakistan with China through land route that almost follow the ancient ‘Silk Route’. Prior to the construction of KKH, the Gilgit-Baltistan 9

region was a remote and un-attracted area. However, after the completion of this mega KKH project, it has proved to be a blessing for the people of Gilgit-Baltistan. Centuries old isolation comes to an end and a wave of prosperity spread in the entire region. Hence, it was proved that the link between human development and socio- economic change is not usual. It has to be created by government innovative policies and overall infrastructural development in the region. The policies must focus on rejuvenation, innovations and creativity to foster and create employment opportunities, promote education and health facilities and reduce long awaited poverty (Haq, 2015). KKH is one of those key policies and strategies by the Government of Pakistan to connect the remote and under-developed area of Gilgit- Baltistan to rest of the country and Xinjiang autonomous region of China. This is what proved after the inception of KKH and the sphere of influence now expanded from a very limited area to the entire country and even to the bordering countries.

In this regards, a comprehensive study of such a mega infrastructural project was lacking in the area. It was need of the hour to explore the strength and weaknesses in the socio-economic uplift of Gilgit-Baltistan and fill the gaps by policy recommendations to the national and provincial governments and to pave way for streamlining the process of overall regional development. In the present study, seven parameters namely, population, land use, agriculture, education, health, tourism and trade were selected to assess the impact of KKH on the socio-economic development of Gilgit-Baltistan. In order to achieve, the impact of KKH on selected parameters, data was collected from both primary and secondary sources.

This study has also highlighted the impact of KKH on the population, its growth and distribution using growth pole model approach (Speakman and Koivisto, 2013; Yar et al. 2016). The growth poles theory explains the economic growth in such a way that, economic growth and development is not even in different places but it has different level of intensity in different places, points or poles. Then it spreads from these poles and the outcome is different in every region. This theory is appropriate to the socio-economic development of Gilgit-Baltistan. One can apparently observe different poles while traveling through KKH, for instace; Danyore, Karim abad, Gulmit and Sost. Raikot and Chillas are also developing to become poles. Similarly, the change in land use land cover was also one of the key indicator to

analyse the impacts of KKH on the dynamic pattern of land use land cover and the same was analysed using satellite remote sensing spatial data as per standard model applied by the International Geosphere Biosphere Program (Lambin and Geist 2006). In addition to this, the impact of KKH was also analysed with reference to change in agricultural system and its paradigm shift towards mechanization and application of modern agricultural inputs. Similarly, the education parameter was assessed using accessibility and road networking as some of the key aspect that whether KKH has brought changes in the education sector or not. Likewise, with the increasing accessibility, the KKH had some impact on the health sector and improvement in the medical facility and extension in the health care coverage. Parallel to this, the importance of trade and tourism cannot be ignored as China is cruising on its policy of regional connectivity in the shape of OBOR, SCO and CPEC.

Nevertheless, Gilgit-Baltistan has a great potential for eco–tourism and natural tourism as the region host thousands of small and large glaciers, hundreds of mountain peaks exceeding heights above 8,000 meters, un-touch treasury of traditions, cultures and indigenous knowledge and skills. It is therefore, a visionary and innovative policy in the form of KKH was required to uplift the socio-economic condition of the people of this remote region and expose the local population to rest of the country and enhance their awareness. In this regards, trade and tourism with the population in Pakistan and China would bring positive change in the socio-economic development of Gilgit-Baltistan.

2.3 HISTORY AND DEVELOPMENT OF KARAKORAM HIGHWAY

China is one of the neighboring countries of Pakistan and share the northern border with the study area. Gilgit-Baltistan has centuries old relations with western China. The relationship between both the regions was based on centuries old “Historic Silk Road”, when trade was done between China, India and central Asian countries through this “Silk Road”. The trade continues for centuries (Drege & Buhrer, 1989). Karakoram is a Turkish word literally mean “the crumbling rock” or the “Black Mountain” (Raza, 1995). It is said that Himalayas and Karakoram are the young mountain formed approximately 55 million years ago, when the Indian subcontinent

drifted north wards and it a pace of 5cm per year and earth tremors every three minutes on average (Hamid, 2002).

The Karakoram Highway (KKH) is a very long highway of about 806 kilometers in Pakistan from the grand trunk road at Hassan Abdal to as far Khunjerab top and a total of about 500 km from Kashgar in China to as far as Pakistan border (Morozowa, 1996). So many remote valleys and mountains have been connected through KKH with other parts of the country. The KKH is one of the marvels of the world’s modern engineering has been passing through one of the most difficult terrains.

Gilgit-Baltistan is a region, where the Pamir, Kunlun, Hindu Kush, Karakoram and great Himalaya ranges are knotted together. It is a historical meeting point where the former USSR, Pakistan, China, Afghanistan and India meet within 250 km radius (Knight, 1978). The KKH however, twists through the three great mountain ranges, the Hindu Kush, Karakoram and Himalayas through which the ancient Silk Road pass all along the mighty Indus River and link China border in the north through historic Khunjerab pass. Most of the mountains along the Karakoram Highway have barren mountains, a high altitude desert which receives less than 10mm rainfall, annually. The KKH runs through many of the gorges and ridges a sheer cliff of over 500m from the Indus River. The KKH is an incredible feat of engineering and really a world monument (Amjed, 2002).

The necessity of constructing an all-weather road that connects Gilgit- Baltistan with rest of Pakistan was actually felt in 1948 to achieve strategic goal. There was intense need to have a land route with Peoples Republic of China (PRC) and to further strengthen friendly ties between Pakistan and China. In addition to this, the desire was also felt to connect the under developed regions of Gilgit-Baltistan with rest of country and also with Xinjiang autonomous region of China. In order to construct KKH, the Chinese premier signed an agreement with Pakistan (Gojali, 2010). In 1959, the Government of Pakistan deployed an army corps of engineers to undertake rock cutting and to construct wide road in Hazara division from Bisham along down-stream Indus River (Abdullah, 2013). A link road was also given to Swat through Bisham and Shangla pass. In 1965, the war between Pakistan and India has affected construction work but it was almost at the completion stage and access to all

the remote areas was by then possible through high mountains of Swat-Kohistan. Later on in January 1966, an initial meeting of technical staff of China and Pakistan met at Kashgar, where it was decided to build a highway connecting China and Pakistan through Khunjerab pass (4710m). Later on in June 1966, a joint technical team started survey to build road (Tribune, 2015).

In July 1966, the Khunjerab force started work on the road construction following Khunjerab pass, which was full of natural hazards, inhospitable topography and use of heavy machinery over this high altitude, logistic arrangements and labour work on this high altitude. The technical force moved according to weather condition over this high altitude road project and stationed at Passu for a pilot cutting and to make airstrips at Passu to take cargo planes (Raza, 1995). During this construction process, more than 70 bridges were built of different types on KKH from Thakot to as far as China border. It is interesting that each bridge is unique in its design and construction. The Chinese road builders have proved their technical abilities by construction of different type of bridges, such as girder bridges, RCC arch bridges, pre-stressed bridges and suspension bridges (Adamson & Shah, 1991).

The construction work of the friendship highway “the KKH” was completed with full Chinese participation and the same was inaugurated on 18th June 1978. During the construction process, over 400 skilled and unskilled labours from both China and Pakistan sacrificed their precious lives. In addition honours awarded to Pakistanis, the Government of Pakistan also honored the Chinese road builders and awarded twenty-seven Tamgha-e-Imtiaz, Seven Sitara-e-Imtiaz and three Hilal-e- Imtiaz in recognition of valuable services rendered in building KKH (NHA, 2010).

Although, the KKH project was completed in 1978, but its maintenance and repair work did not stop till date. Parallel to this, in Gilgit-Baltistan new link roads to KKH was also built to connect the surrounding remote areas to this highway. In September 1985, the KKH was also opened for surface mail and exchange of transit mail at Khunjerab border between China and Pakistan.

2.4 EXPANSION PROJECTS OF KARAKORAM HIGHWAY

Keeping in view the ideal Geographical location of Pakistan and specifically KKH, the Government of Pakistan deems it wise to establish a trade corridor by 13

connecting KKH in the north with Gwadar seaport in the south of country. This trans- country highway holds great importance in the new millennium and by considering the growing expansion in Chinese global trade. This new avenue of land route linking the northern borders with sea port in the south of Pakistan will prove to be a trade hub for the regional prosperity.

During January to March, each year the KKH is closed at several spot over the Khunjerab pass due to heavy snowfall and landslides. This put stress on traders and their goods supply are delayed. In order to make it all weather road, in 2006 an agreement was signed by Salman Bashir the Ambassador of Pakistan to China and the Deputy General Manager commercial of Loan Project the Xin Bin to improve the condition of KKH (DAWN, 2008). Subsequently, on February 16, 2008, the then president of Pakistan Pervez Musharraf launched the KKH expansion project to further strengthen the trade, commerce and geo-political relationship with China (NEWS, 2008; Table 3.1). This project was completed in 2014 and the hard high altitude KKH was made accessible the year round for movement of goods and other services. The details about the project of up-gradation of Khunjerab-Raikot section is given below:

Table 2.1, Up-gradation project of Khunjerab-Raikot Section

Project Name KKH improvement Project (Khunjerab to Raikot)

Name of Project Manager Ye Chengyin

Name of Project Director Abdullah Jan, GM of KKH

Total Length 332 Km and grade 3 type road

Contractor China Road and Bridge Corporation

Estimated cost US$ 491 million

Date of completion 31-07-2014

Source: NHA, Gilgit Office 2014

2.5 POPULATION AND AGRICULTURE Population and human resource sectors are pre-requisite for the socio- economic development of a region. Educated and skill labor force is an indication of

prosperity. It is the relationship between population and farmland, which help in assessing man-land ratio and its efficiency. Catherine et al. (2012) in a research paper ‘Population distribution, settlement patterns and Accessibility across Africa in 2010’ argue that, the spatial distribution of populations and settlements across a country and their interconnectivity and accessibility from urban areas are important for delivering healthcare, distributing resources and economic development.

Alam et al. (2012) in a research article ‘Stochastic frontier approach to measure technical efficiency of two irrigation systems in Gilgit district, Gilgit- Baltistan region of Pakistan’ argue that, agriculture is the main source of income for Pakistan as well as for the people of Gilgit-Baltistan. In the past two decades the farming system of Gilgit has transformed to a very modern and technological pattern. This transformation will give boost to agriculture production wheat and vegetables in the region.

Walter (2014) in a research paper ‘Changing Gilgit-Baltistan: Perception of the recent history and the role of community activism’ argue that, a major transformation has took place in Gilgit-Baltistan due to easy accessibility. The society which was living an archaic life pattern is going through a huge socio-economic change.

Awan et al. (2012) in a research article ‘Assessment of Production Practices of Small Scale farm Holders of Tomato in Bagrote Valley, CKNP region of Gilgit- Baltistan, Pakistan’ argue that, despite the introduction of modern technologies and means of production people still follows the old traditional pattern of farming. The research suggested that in order to get more income from tomato crops the farmers must use modern tools and technologies.

Alam et al. (2012) in a research article ‘Technical Efficiency and its Determinants in Potato Production: Evidence from Northern Areas in Gilgit-Baltistan Region of Pakistan’ argue that, Gilgit-Baltistan has a great potential of potato production. The study suggested that by improving the irrigation system and level of education of farmers, export quality potatos can be produced in the region.

Baloch (2004) in a book titled ‘In the wonderland of Asia: Gilgit and Baltistan’ narrates the liberation of Gilgit-Baltistan from the Dogra Raj of Kashmir. The first part of this book is more relevant to the present research work, which

describes the historical growth of Gilgit-Baltistan under different empires and the culture and indigenous knowledge.

In another important historical deliberations Dani (2001) stated in a research titled ‘History of Northern Areas of Pakistan (up to 2000 AD)’ described in detail and highlighted the history of Northern Areas (Gilgit-Baltistan). The book also argues that building of KKH has been opening bright avenue and prospects in the regional uplift. The scientist further says that in future, Indus water power will be utilized and would pave way in the prosperity of this region and especially in the socio-economic development of local population. The prosperity of the land could be unprecedented. Therefore, this study will provide historical references and foundation for the development of theoretical framework for this research work.

Kamal and Nasir (1998) argue in an article ‘the impact of the Karakoram Highway on the Land use of the Northern Areas’ that since the construction of the Highway the pace of the development has accelerated. The region has opened up to trade and commerce with the Indus plain as well as with Xinjiang, China has opened up to tourism, and to the mechanization of farming, use and application of chemical fertilizers, insecticides, and to the introduction of new high yielding crops, crop varieties, fruits and vegetables.

Stellrecht (1997) in a research article on ‘Writing concerning the past of Northern Pakistan: A Short Introduction’ States that the opening of the Karakoram Highway has accelerated the transformation process. The wheels of change have affected in every field of life.

Clemens & Nuesser (1995-1996) in an article ‘Animal husbandry and socio- economic development: persistence and transformation a Nanga Parbat case study’ Stated that, the entire region of Hindu Kush, Karakoram and the Himalayas has often been subject of environmental discussions and development projects focusing on the threat to mountain forest resources due to over-exploitation and its subsequent effects on the low lands.

Schickhoff (1993) in an article ‘Interrelations between ecological and socio- economic change: the case of the high altitude forests in the northern areas of Pakistan’ Stated that, with the development of the road networks in the Northern Areas many previously secluded valleys were connected with the outside world, in

particular after the final completion of the KKH in 1978. As already documented in several studies (Stalley 1969; Jettmar 1977; Groetzbach 1984; Kreutzmann 1989; 1991; Allan 1989), a transformation of the general socio-Economic conditions is taking place as a consequence of the reinforced exchange relations with the forelands.

Kreutzmann (1992) in a research study titled ‘Development process in the Hunza valley, a case study from the Karakoram Mountains’ argue that, the Karakoram Highway supports the growing exchange of potatoes, dried fruits, walnuts, apples and wool from the mountainous areas for basic foodstuffs and consumer goods of daily usage like salt, sugar, vegetable oil, wheat and cotton from down the country. The overall importance of trade has increased accordingly. The author states that in 1935 there was not a single shop in Hunza, whereas small bazaars along the transport routes are developing today at a fast pace.

Henderson & Hume, (1981) in a study titled ‘Lahore to Yarkand’ records the incidents of the route and natural history of the countries traversed by the expedition of 1870 under T.D. Forsyth (Then commissioner of the Jullundur division); both the authors were also the members of the team. This is another landmark full of adventure discussions on the movement from Lahore to Yarkand.

Knight (1978) in a research entitled ‘Where Three Empires Meet’ has tried to analyze empirically the difficulties faced by the writer during his visit to Gilgit- Baltistan during the British period in India. It is also relevant to this research work because by going through this work one can easily find the difficulty faced by the travelers due to undulating topography and harsh climatic condition. The writer further explores that to what extent the local population faces the difficulty in travelling and accessibility. This research will help the researcher in comparing the past with the present day KKH and the changes in over-all accessibility.

2.6 EDUCATION AND HEALTH

Education and health are the primary indicators of socio-economic development. It is a long term investment by a state to develop its human capital. Those nations which invested heavily in human development are reaping the benefits. Khan et al. (2012) in a research paper ‘Role of Teachers in Providing Educational and Career Counseling to the Secondary School Students in Gilgit-Baltistan of Pakistan’

argues that the teachers play a vital role in providing education and career counseling of the students. It is the teachers who guides his/her students at every level and give valuable suggestions in professional life. Due to inaccessibility to education in the past the people of Gilgit-Baltistan are still hesitating in career selection.

Benz (2013) in an article ‘Education and Development in The Karakoram: Educational expansion and its Impacts in Gilgit-Baltistan, Pakistan’ argues that the high education levels, which today characterize large sections of Gilgit-Baltistan, are very recent achievements. The outcome of a rapid and largely successful educational expansion is attributed to KKH. Only three generations back, the overwhelming majority of the population was illiterate and never had the chance to attend a school.

Murtaza (2012) in an article ‘Women empowerment through higher education in Gilgit-Baltistan’ stated that the Geography of the region also impinges on women s’ lives. The regional headquarter Gilgit is in itself isolated being 650 km distant from the nearest major urban centre of Islamabad and Rawalpindi. But within the Gilgit- Baltistan region, there are remote areas of greater isolation. It is not uncommon for students to walk for several hours each day in order to able to continue their education beyond primary school. For reason already given, this is not an option for adolescent girls. A program which affords package of both schooling and safe accommodation is necessary for girls coming from the remotest areas, who have to be away from homes.

Sultana et al. (2012) in a research paper ‘The Nature and Impact of Teacher Stress in the Private Schools of Gilgit-Baltistan’ argues that like other provinces of Pakistan education institutions are growing at a rapid pace in Gilgit-Baltistan as well without considering quality. This is badly affecting the standard of teaching and psychological behavior of the students as well as the teachers. For instance most of the private schools are paying very low salaries to their teachers which badly influence their professional approach and performance.

Hussain et al. (2011) in a research article ‘Traditional Drug Therapies from various Medicinal plants of Central Karakoram National Park, Gilgit-Baltistan, Pakistan.’ argues that, the ideal climatic conditions and natural vegetation is a blessing for the local people. There are certain plants and trees which are being used

as medicine for many diseases. It can be utilized in herbal as well as other medicinal techniques.

Afridi (1988) in a book titled ‘Baltistan in History’ has presented a detailed analytical picture of the development that took place in education, rural works, forestry, transport, communication and medical sectors after liberation from Dogra Raj till 1968 in Gilgit Baltistan. The author has worked as political agent in Gilgit- Baltistan. His work will also provide a source of inspiration to focus on the socio- economic changes that occurred after the construction of KKH.

2.7 TRADE AND TOURISM

Sökefeld (2014) in an article ‘Anthropology of Gilgit-Baltistan: Introduction’ argues that prior to the construction of KKH, the Gilgit-Baltistan had very low accessibility between Sinkiang province of China and Pakistan. It is KKH which has largely transformed life in Gilgit-Baltistan. The exchange of goods from down- country Pakistan to Gilgit-Baltistan largely increased after the construction of KKH.

Cook (2013) in article titled ‘The Attabad Landslide and Everyday Mobility in Gojal, Northern Pakistan’ describes that the Attabad worst landslide had buried over 24 km KKH. This KKH is a sole main link road that connects the communities in upper-Hunza to Gilgit and surrounding areas. This devastating landslide disaster has reduced the mobility, access to market and food stuff of population living in upper Hunza.

Sökefeld (2013) in an article ‘The Attabad landslide and the politics of disaster in Gojal, Gilgit-Baltistan’ argues that many of the people who are affected by the Attabad landslide hold a slightly different view of the relationship between “natural” and “man-made” disasters. For them, the disaster was natural in the beginning but subsequently turned into a man-made disaster. According to their perspective, it became a man-made disaster because insufficient steps were taken by the regional and national authorities to prevent further damages.

Rosen, et al. (2012) in an article ‘Reconciling Sustainable Development of Mountain Communities with Large Carnivore Conservation’ elaborated that in Gilgit-Baltistan, the scattered mountainous communities are exposed to wide range 19

of challenges due to its harsh climatic condition, rough topography and poor accessibility to markets and other services. Nevertheless, the KKH has surely minimized their grievances as for as basic requirements of life are concerned.

Anwar (2011) in an article ‘Development of Infrastructural Linkages between Pakistan and Central Asia’ describes the importance of KKH as a linkage between the SCO, SAARC, and ECO states. He further states that Pakistan and china have agreed to open four new roads through the Khunjerab pass and that will not only enhance trade volume but will open up new markets and economic opportunities especially for the people of Gilgit-Baltistan. This work is very much relevant to few variables of this study.

Mahmud (2007) in a report titled ‘The Gilgit-Baltistan Reforms Package 2007: Background, Phases and Analysis’ narrates that after the construction of KKH, political, strategic, tourism and trade specifically boost-up and open avenues for the population of Gilgit-Baltistan. In addition to connecting local population through link roads, the KKH has also open opportunity to strengthen trade with rest of Pakistan and the western province of China the Xinjiang.

Roy (2006) in an article ‘Pakistan Strategies in Central Asia’ highlighted the statement of the former president of Pakistan Pervez Musharraf that Pakistan is situated geographically in such an important area that it gives natural linkages to the SCO states to connect the Eurasian Heartland with the Arabian Sea and South Asia. Although, this article is not a detail deliberations but the author has indicated some key points in this article which goes through the area of research.

Kreutzmann (2004) in an article ‘Accessibility for High Asia: Comparative Perspectives on Northern Pakistan’s Traffic Infrastructure and linkages with its Neighbours in the Hindu Kush-Karakoram-Himalaya’ describes the changes in traffic infrastructure during the 19th and 20th century in the northern areas of Pakistan. He has quoted the prediction of Martin Conway in 1894 that “Gilgit must grow to be an important trade Centre, and possibly a railway junction on the line from India to Kashgar, where the Samarkand branch will turn off”.

Bonavia (2004) in a book titled ‘The Silk Road from Xian to Kashgar’ has narrated the travel account. The author praised the engineering work of KKH and the beautiful areas in which this wonderful highway runs through a lofty and uneven terrain. It is also a very helpful work for this research study and to incorporate the author experiences visiting the area of Gilgit-Baltistan.

Boulnois (2001) in a book titled ‘Silk Road Monks, warriors and Merchants’ highlighted the engineering work of KKH that is a glaring example of the improvement made in transportation network and its comparison with the condition “before” and “after” the construction of KKH. Crossing the gorges of the Kei River, which used to take six days, is now done in 70 minutes. Similarly, the trip from Rawalpindi to Gilgit, which represented 23 stages on horseback, is now reduced to 17 hours by bus. The distance from Gilgit to Hunza, once took three days of riding, is now two hours by jeep. Moreover, the dangers incurred are much fewer.

Mahmud and Iqbal (1999-2000) in an article titled ‘Some Observations on Pottering as a Profession in Baltistan’ argues that with the increase in adventure tourism in Northern Areas pottering has emerged as an important off-farm economic activity in the region especially in Baltistan which is a paradise for adventure tourist.

Stellrecht (1998) in an article ‘Economic and political Relations between Northern Pakistan and Central as well as South Asia in the Nineteenth and Twentieth centuries’ Argues that building KKH has consolidated the link between political and economic sectors since the 1970s and truly can be considered as an opportunity for new avenues. The restrictions over the transit have been over-come and the potential link of Gilgit-Baltistan to Central and South Asia is improved.

Stellrecht (1997) in an article ‘Dynamics of Highland-Lowland Interaction in Northern Pakistan since the 19th Century’ argues that importance of the Karakoram Highway, built originally as a strategic road but also used increasingly for economic purposes, had changed once again after the fall of the Soviet Union. New states have emerged in Central Asia, which are linked with Pakistan through political, economic and religious ties. Against this background, Pakistan has increasingly considered itself as “the” gateway to Central Asia.

Morozowa (1996) in an article ‘Karakoram Highway: commercial importance and growing perspectives (Revival of the Great Silk Route)’ presents that the KKH, having been conceived about 30 years ago, has turned already in reality and today it has become not only the symbol, but also practical realization of integrating link that joins the peoples of Pakistan and China. This study has provided very much relevant information and baseline data for this study.

Dani (1995) in a book titled ‘Human records on Karakoram highway’ describes briefly that the history and society living along the Karakoram highway. The study also highlighted their culture, level of awareness and the sources of livelihood earnings. It is a sort of travel guide for the tourists visiting Gilgit-Baltistan and KKH. The information given in the book is very short but provides foundation for social aspects of this study.

Dittmann (1994) in an article ‘Research on Central place systems of the Karakoram Mountains in Northern Pakistan Gilgit as a model of urban development’ argues that to a certain degree the continuous growth of Gilgit as a dominating central place of the Karakoram mountains has been due to its external factors, such as intra- and inter-regional migrations and infrastructural developments. Referring to both, the spatial and the temporal context of these developments, there are different stages of extension in the current structure of the Gilgit city.

Begum (1986) in a paper on ‘Pak- China Trade with special reference to trade through Karakoram Highway’ argues that China and Pakistan are close neighbours. Cordial political, strategic and growing economic relations exist between the two countries. Trade relations between them have existed since long but these came into prominence in 1962 following the conclusion of border agreement. In the beginning, trade was only through sea route but after the construction of Karakoram highway in 1978, the volume of trade has gone under a noticeable increase.

Hopkirk (1980) in a book titled ‘Foreign devils on the Silk Road’ says that today the Americans would hardly recognize this ‘long old road’. Monasteries and caravan have given way to communes and tractor plants. Modern highways link the oasis towns. A new road carries motor traffic over the Karakoram.

Keay (1979) in a book titled ‘The Gilgit Game: the explorer of the western Himalayas 1865-95’ describes analytically that the point of Gilgit is strategic. The author connects the significance of the area to the Great game, the century long rivalry between Russia and British India for control of Central Asia. The work is relevant to this research in a sense that this area was also of prime strategic importance during the 19th century to the British rulers of India.

2.8 CONCLUSION

After having studied the available relevant literature on Gilgit-Baltistan, it revealed that almost all the writers visited the Gilgit-Baltistan as a tourist or for a specific purpose assigned to them. That’s why most of the literature about Gilgit- Baltistan is travelogues. Research papers about the study area are mostly about the socio-physical sectors. After the establishment of Karakoram International University, Gilgit and Agha Khan University of Education, scholars are now contributing in different fields of studies like education, health, trade, tourism and culture. The researcher has tried his best in his capacity to fill the gap in the available literature on the study area.

SECTION -3 RESEARCH METHODOLOGY

CHAPTER -3 RESEARCH METHODOLOGY

3.1 INTRODUCTION

This chapter is divided into six sections. Section one deals with the research questions, whereas section two is given to research hypothesis. Section three discusses the purpose of the study, while section four describes the study objectives. Section five and six explains research variables and methods of data collection, respectively.

3.2 RESEARCH QUESTIONS

The two major research questions are:

i. What have been the impacts of KKH on the socio-economic development of Gilgit-Baltistan?

ii. What are the future prospects of KKH for the socio-economic uplift of Gilgit- Baltistan?

3.3 RESEARCH HYPOTHESES

The following research hypotheses have been tested:

i. The KKH has positively affected the socio-economic development of Gilgit- Baltistan. ii. The KKH has great potential to bring socio-economic uplift in the Gilgit- Baltistan region.

3.4 PURPOSE OF THE STUDY

The purpose of this study is to evaluate the impact of Karakoram Highway on the socio-economic development of Gilgit-Baltistan. The aim of building KKH was to link Pakistan and China via Gilgit-Baltistan. Therefore, in this study focus has been made to analyze the selected variables for assessing the socio-economic development

of Gilgit-Baltistan, and to explore the extent to which the inhabitants benefitted from KKH.

3.5 RESEARCH OBJECTIVES

To achieve the purpose of the study following objectives have been set-up:

i. To explore the growth and development of Karakoram Highway;

ii. To assess the impact of KKH on the socio-economic condition of Gilgit- Baltistan; iii. To find out the future prospects of KKH for the socio-economic development of Gilgit-Baltistan; iv. To suggest recommendations for accelerating the socio-economic development of Gilgit-Baltistan

3.6 RESEARCH VARIABLES

To evaluate the impact of KKH on the socio-economic development of Gilgit- Baltistan (Figure 4.1) following variables were tested:

i. Population;

ii. Health;

iii. Education;

iv. Land use;

v. Agriculture;

vi. Trade and

vii. Tourism

Figure 3.1, Research Process

3.7 METHODS OF DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS

In order to achieve the study objectives, data pertaining to impact of KKH were obtained from both primary and secondary sources (Figure 3.1). Primary data is considered as the most appropriate tool in socio-economic survey. Primary data were gathered through questionnaire survey. Three different types of questionnaires were designed: a questionnaire for local respondents, questionnaire for Focused Group Discussions (FGD’s), questionnaire for the officials of relevant organizations. However, secondary data were collected from the concerned line agencies including the Frontier Works Organization (FWO), China Roads and Bridges Corporation (CRBC), National Highway Authority (NHA), office of the General Manger KKH Gilgit, Office of the Commissioner and Deputy Commissioner of Gilgit, Export Promotion Bureau and Bureau of Statistics. In order to investigate the socio- economic impact of KKH on Gilgit-Baltistan, Focused Group Discussions (FGD’s) were also conducted with the concerned officials, politicians, traders, transporters and the local communities living in the sample districts of Gilgit-Baltistan.

For Land Use Land Cover analysis, multi-spectral Landsat images for the year 1996 and 2016 (twenty years temporal resolution) were downloaded from the open source. These satellite images were classified in ArcGIS for Spatio-temporal land use land cover change analysis. In order to get micro level impact of KKH on land use Land Cover of Gilgit-Baltistan, out of seven districts, three namely, Diamer, Gilgit and Hunza-Nagar districts were purposively selected for change detection as KKH passes through these three sample districts.

3.7.1 Sample Selection

In the survey, the nine villages were selected (3 each from district Gilgit, Hunza Nagar and Diamer) using the systematic sampling method, which arranges villages in an ascending order based on the size in each district that includes small, medium and large villages. Similarly, the households, which are the primary unit of analysis, from the selected villages were organized in an ascending order according to the size of landholdings. From this order, households were selected through a systematic random sampling method to ensure representation of small, medium and large landholding and households.

3.7.2 Sample Size

Survey was conducted by employing standard statistical tools and techniques. Efforts were being made to address statistically critical parameters used in this process such as maximum variability among the major variables to be made. From this process, the sample size for each sample village determined. As per the sample for each district, 3 villages were selected from each district and fifty household from each were selected for detailed and intensive analysis. To ensure the samples randomness, 150 households from each district in Gilgit, Diamer and Hunza Nagar districts was selected, respectively. These numbers were determined as a proportion to the total population in each district. To select the sample villages from each district, the villages were arranged in an ascending order according to the number of households in each village and then selected through a systematic random sampling technique. A total sample of 9 villages were selected, 3 each from Gilgit, Diamer and Hunza Nagar. To select the households from these villages, a households list was developed in an ascending order according to size of landholding.

3.7.3 Tabulation

To analyze the impact of KKH on the socio-economic development of Gilgit- Baltistan the data was divided into two parts. The first part includes the data before the construction of KKH and the second part include the data after the construction till 2014. The data was then presented in the form of tables to determine the change and development.

3.7.4 Presentation

The findings of the survey are presented in the form of tables, maps and statistical diagrams used to illustrate and highlight key results. Wherever possible, the results have also been presented at the district level. For the purposes of time serious comparison, 1978 is considered as the base year; where statistics for the base year was not available, the closest year for which the data was available is considered for comparative analysis. The findings contained in the tables and statistical diagram have not been repeated in the narrative sections. Instead, more focus has been given to interpreting and explaining these results in a logical manner in terms of the magnitude

of change over time, across the regions, and between the study periods. The summary of major finding and results are presented in the final sections.

3.7.5 Interpretation and explanation of data

The data after tabulation and presentation in graphical form is then interpreted and explained in the light of existing socio-economic parameters and to determine the KKH impact on the socio-economic development of the study region. The collected data was also passed through several stages for subsequent analysis.

3.8 CONCLUSION

This chapter is finally concluded that to assess the impact of KKH on the socio-economic development of Gilgit-Baltistan, the researcher personally visited the study area. Data was collected from all the sources mentioned above. Field survey was also conducted in Districts along the KKH i.e. Diamer, Gilgit and Hunza Nagar. Data was organized carefully after studying all the literature. Presentation, tabulation and analysis have been discussed in Section four of this chapter.

CHAPTER -4 ENVIRONMENTAL SETTING OF THE STUDY AREA

4.1 INTRODUCTION

This chapter focuses on the environmental settings of Karakoram Highway (KKH) in Gilgit-Baltistan region. In this chapter, an attempt has been made to know briefly about the location of Gilgit-Baltistan and its environmental set-up. The chapter discusses the location of Gilgit-Baltistan, its history and current status, Physiography, soil, climate and current administrative set up of the study area. The last section of the chapter is about the construction and up-gradation of Karakoram Highway, KKH and China Pakistan Economic Corridor is also briefly discussed. The chapter is concluded in the final section.

4.2 LOCATION OF GILGIT-BALTISTAN

Geographically, the study area (Gilgit-Baltistan) is bounded in the North-West by Wakhan Corridor of Afghanistan, China in the North-East, Jammu and Kashmir in the East, Azad Jammu and Kashmir in the South-East, whereas the province of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa of Pakistan in the south and west. The total area of Gilgit-Baltistan is about 72,496 sq km with numerous fertile valleys drained by glacier milk. Administratively, the Gilgit-Baltistan is divided into seven districts namely, Ghanche, Skardu, Gilgit, Diamer, Ghizer, Astore and Hunza Nagar (recently the number of districts has been raised to ten by including Shigar, Kharmang and Nagar). According to population census 1998, the total population of Gilgit-Baltistan was 8, 84,000 (Baloch, 2004).

4.3 HISTORY OF THE STUDY AREA If the history of this territory is traced back we come to know about this dominion through venture and adventures that ascended the high mountains and made way to this area. Even though full scale notes have not been left however all have Cherished Out comes drawn from those waves of glorious mountains of the world. When these outcomes are unified, they depict a cloudy and frosty image by which primitive past of this area is easily imagined. Historians have analysed this image by the touchstone of their own philosophies and convictions. So, they have different

conclusions. Greek left the premier record of this area amongst whom Herodotus was the first to make a mentioning of it, then Alexander the Great went across this area in the spring of 325 BC with his battalion (Afridi, 1988). He moved forward to Dir and Swat through the valley of Kabul. Some of his contingent passed through the general area of Gilgit and Chitral. Gilgit is mentioned also in his acknowledgements. But these acknowledgments afford just passing citations which lead to no conclusion.

These entail the names of certain important places; Gilgit is one of those. Next source of information is the travelers of China: Fa Hian (399-413 AD) and Hiuen Tsiang (629-645 AD); both moved through this region on their way to India (Dani, 2001). The Former came during Maurian Dynasty and visited Gandhara tracts in particular which was extended to Swat, Bajawar and Buner at that time. He named Dard as Toli while Swat was mentioned as Udhyana and Greeks attributed it “Suastene”. He discovered Buddhism prevalent in the area, but latter wailed of its fall. Chinese annals also bring the history of this area to limelight (Baloch, 2004). They called it “Great Polu” and “Little Polu”. These titles were attributed to Baltistan and Gilgit. Then Arabs appeared on this land and their accounts which could not yield a detailed picture.

The British accessed the area in the mid of 19th century. They at first moved over it for business and then reserved their findings. Some of them attempted to, uncover its pre-history but because of absence of systematic research no hard and fast conclusions could be achieved. Some solid and significant information was excavated which would serve the future scholars and students of history. Despite such implications of past pure pre-history is lost.

Explorers devoted themselves to myriad of jeopardize, cause by mountainous belt. They invested their potential in negotiating the ground facts instead of only looking for the relics of history. The area had slender rate of population spread along the canal channelized by the Indus River and some other runnels (Dani, 1995). It was a locality of any impressive political influence, nor a strong religious hub dominating the territories around. Hence all got little interest in it. For the natural cruelties made their journey extremely pernicious due to which all have marginalised a great deal of accounts. As per the primitive history, people of far-flung areas hardly knew the name and ruler of their country.

For them history was but only existed in the valleys they resided in. Beyond that nothing took place nor did they have any concern of. Their political domain was all about between cattle and routine marriages. This pattern of life in some parts still exists. Summer season creates history here every year when people cultivate their lands and stock nutriments. Then winter brings snow which makes everything snow- capped and covered with history. Next summer sets in and melts away snow as well as history of the area into streams and canals. This is how new history begins. According to the law of nature how can one trace back the history when it does not have ever a present one? If these people were asked about the great incident of their past, they would prefer mentioning the year when their ancestors would play Polo match and won it. They love to relate this tale with Sparkling eyes.

In the study area, during 18th and 19th centuries, there were great political upheavals. Entire India founded itself in a Swirl. The Mughal Empire faced downfall which was followed by political frailty. Two big powers arose in India out of this instability. Both of them influenced the history of Gilgit-Baltistan greatly (Mahmud, 2007). From Calcutta, the eastern land of India emerged British Empire which with the passage of time occupied all India. In Punjab Sikhs gained prominence that was barbaric and savage race of India. They Seized power in Lahore, and widened their empire to North and West. From North they intruded into Kashmir while in West they advanced to Peshawar. History of Gilgit-Baltistan comes to be Synchronised with Kashmir and through Kashmir with Sikhs the Dogras and finally with British. Therefore it is quite favourable to throw light on their brief background of the emergence and their enterprise in Gilgit Baltistan.

In the winter of 1845, battle between British and Sikhs burst out. Golab Singh hit upon to hold himself dissociated till the battle of Sobraon. The all at once he came to sight as an instrumental conciliator and credible advisor of Sir Henry Lawrence. Two treatises were determined. Through the medium of first the Sovereignty of Lahore was entrusted to British authorities where as by the Second Golab Singh made all the hilly country located to the east of Indus and the West of the Ravi, over to British on the cost of rupees Seventy Five Hundred Thousand Nanukshahee (Name of Currency). This is known as “Treaty of Amritsar” (Annexure 12). This purchase also included establishing imperative control over this remote and desolate area.

In 1877, British decided to stretch out the frontiers of their region in order to inspect Russian expansion. For that purpose they decided to Subjugate Afghanistan completely. As a first step Quetta was seized (Afridi, 1988). They got fully prepared for further intrusion. On Northern area they decided to depute an agent at Gilgit. Negotiation for this political sagacity was begun, the same year. Consequently, right in the next year in 1878, British Agent Lt. Col. J. Biddulph arrived at. Yet it was 11 years later that Gilgit was turned into a regular political agency. So, first British political agent Col. A. G. Durand assumed its charge (Dittmann, 1994). I n 1898, Yasin, previously a part of Chitral was adjoined to Gilgit agency. Gilgit was transformed into a settled district and was controlled by Wazir Wazarat (Deputy Commissioner) of the Kashmir Darbar while on the other hand political domains were administered by British political agent who lodged at Gilgit (Ali, 2004). He kept some degree of superintendence over the Wazir of the Kashmir dominion but was directly accountable to Govt of India for the surveillance of the remote districts or petty states of Hunza Nagar, Ishkoman, Yasir Ghizar the little republic of Chillas and also for the relations with Tangir and Darel. These states acceded the kingdom of Kashmir but were not willing to be called as a part of its territory. They paid a yearly tribute to Darbar: Hunza and Nagar in gold, Chilas in Cash, Ishkaman, Yasir and Ghizar in grain, goats and ghee (Biddulph, 2001). The agent did not meddle into the divisional authority of these distant states and continue satisfactory Liaison. People were at large to keep their customs and traditions Vogue.

Besides the Dogra Battalion of Kashmir, a local force of levies was also introduced which later came to be known as Gilgit Scouts. Being small in size, this force proved to be highly proficient. This consisted of men gathered from Hunza, Punial and Chilas. In 1936 the British Government settled a treaty with the Maharaja of Kashmir, conforming to which the Government took over the territories of Gilgit subdivision on lease for sixty years (Baloch, 2004). But as soon as this period expired, history took another mark and the area won independence in 1947.

4.4 CURRENT STATUS OF GILGIT-BALTISTAN REGION

Since 1947, the Gilgit-Baltistan region is under Pakistan administration. The region was accorded status of self-governance on August 29, 2009 and the entire Gilgit- Baltistan region is now constitutionally an integrated part of Pakistan (Gojali, 2010). Presently, Gilgit-Baltistan has its own legislative assembly of 33 elected representatives, under the chief minister with a governor running the provincial government. “Pakistan ministry of Kashmir affairs and Gilgit-Baltistan” looks after the concerns of the Gilgit- Baltistan. Prime Minister of Pakistan is the Chairman of Gilgit-Baltistan council while Governor of Gilgit-Baltistan is the Vice-Chairman. Thus it has got a status of province without representation in National Assembaly and Senate of Pakistan (Dawn, 2009). Recently a commeettee was formed to formulate a concrete suggesstions and recommendations to give this area a full provincial status. The people of Gilgit-Baltistan are also demanding full constitutional status and representation in National Assembly and Senate of Pakistan (Dawn, 2016).

The Gilgit-Baltistan is divided into two divisions namely Gilgit and Baltistan (Figure 3.1). It is consists of total seven administrative districts. The districts of Skardu and Ghanche are in Baltistan division, whereas the districts of Gilgit, Hunza Nagar, Diamer, Astore and Ghizer are the part of Gilgit division. In Gilgit-Baltistan, Skardu and Gilgit are the two politico-commercial urban centres in the region (recently the number of districts has been raised to ten by including Shigar, Kharmang and Nagar).

The study region Gilgit-Baltistan hosts numerous world highest peaks in western Himalayas and Karakoram ranges. The world’s 2nd highest peak K2 (8,610 m) lies in Karakoram Mountains. In the region some other important peaks are Nanga Parbat located on the right side of KKH one proceeding from south to north near Jaglot. Close to K2, there are several Gasherbrum’s peaks ranked 12 to 17 world highest peaks in district Skardu with a height ranges from 7,930 to 8,081 m above sea level. Other important peaks includes Rakaposhi (7,788 m), ), Kanjut Sar (7,790 m), Batura Sar (7,795 m), Distaghil Sar (7,885 m) and 7,852 m high peak of Kunyang Chhish.

Figure 4.1, Gilgit-Baltistan region at a glance after Dawn, 2015

4.5 PHYSIOGRAPHY OF GILGIT-BALTISTAN In the north of Pakistan, Karakoram-Himalayan region commonly known as Gilgit-Baltistan, extend between 340 40’ to 370 0’ North latitude and 720 30’ to 780 0’ East longitude. For the purpose of administration, it has been divided into seven districts i.e. Gilgit, Diamer, Hunza-Nagar, Ghanche, Ghizer, Skardu and Astore. The Gilgit-Baltistan region cover an area of 72,496 sq km is dominated by mountainous containing world’s highest mountain system namely Himalaya, Karakoram and Hindukush (Figure 4.2). The study region, shares a border with Afghanistan in the north, China in the north east, Kashmir and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa in the south and district Chitral in the west (Nasir, 1998). Geographically, the limits of the region are well defined. The northern and north eastern boundary largely coincides with the major watershed of the inland drainage basins of central Asia and the Indus. The western boundary is defined by the watershed that separate Chitral from the Gilgit River. To the south west, its boundary runs along the watershed between Indus and Neelum (Kishanganga) and Kaghan rivers.

Figure 4.2, Gilgit-Baltistan, Physical pattern, modified after said, 2005

The Karakoram region has great variation in relief (Figure 4.2). The maximum relief reaches 8,610 m (K-2) the world second highest peak. The mountain system possess some of the highest peak of the world including, Nanga Parbat (8,078 m), Rakaposhi (7,742 m) and Haramosh (7,272 m) etc. Within 60 miles radius of Gilgit, there are over twenty lofty peaks, ranging between 5,454 m to 8,610 m above mean sea level. These mountain systems have numerous beautiful valleys ranging in length from 3 to 80 km. These valleys can be divided into three types according to their size and form. In the study area, all large and small streams finally drain into River Indus. The mighty Indus flows through Gilgit-Baltistan mostly in narrow gorges and enters the Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa province of Pakistan. The prominent tributaries of River Indus include Gilgit, Astore, Hunza, Shigar and Shyok rivers. These rivers are mostly recharged small and large glaciers.

4.6 SOIL OF GILGIT-BALTISTAN In Gilgit-Baltistan, numerous glaciers and rivers have worked on the region as geomorphic agents. Erosion at one place and deposition at another indicate the work of these agents and formation soil with different characteristics of parent materials. The existing soil are cultivated mainly as terraced fields and associated mainly to

landforms of scree slopes, alluvial fans and morainic materials. The soil texture is predominantly course in the upper reaches, whereas it is fine texture in the lower flood plains. Generally, the soil is fertile and suitable for all types of crops. With the application chemical fertilizer, the crop yield give quite productive and more rewarding results.

4.7 CLIMATE OF GILGIT-BALTISTAN Climatically, Gilgit-Baltistan has wide diversity in weather conditions. Generally, the region has warm/hot summer and cool/cold winter. The lofty Karakoram and Himalayan mountain ranges create sharp variations in weather and therefore peaks acceding 8,000m snow-clad throughout the year. Generally, the eastern part of Gilgit- Baltistan has comparatively moist climatic condition, whereas the western part of Gilgit-Baltistan is considerably arid to semi-arid (WWF, 2009). The climate data recorded at Chilas and Gilgit reveals that a very hot condition prevails during summer but in valleys of Hunza, Nagar, Yasin, Shigar, Hushey, Saltro, Shoyuke, Astore, Gupis, Shimshal, Khaplu and Kharmang, where the temperatures are cool/warm even in summer.

In Gilgit-Baltistan, Pakistan Meteorology Department has so far established seven weather stations at different localities. All these meteorological stations are located in Karakoram and Himalayan ranges at an elevation of over 1,200 m above mean sea level. Gilgit met station is located at 1,460 m, Gupis at elevation of 2,156 m, Astore at 2,168 m, Bunji at 1,372 m, Chilas at 1,250 m, Skardu 2,317 m and recently established Hunza at an elevation 2,326 m above mean sea level. Out of these met stations, long term data is only available for the five met stations (Gilgit, Gupis, Astore, Bunji and Chilas), which also lies close to KKH.

The climate at Gilgit station is arid and very little rainfall of about 154 mm is received in year round (Figure 4.3). At Gilgit station, January is the coldest month, whereas June, July and August are the hottest months. In January, the mean monthly minimum temperature usually recorded below 0 oC and July is the hottest month with a mean monthly maximum temperature acceding 34 oC. This indicates that there is wide range of annual temperature. At Gilgit station, total annual rainfall is a little more than 150 mm and the region falls under the arid and semi-arid region of Pakistan.

The analysis reveals that in Gilgit-Baltistan, Astore is comparatively humid station and receive average annual rainfall of about 427 mm (Figure 4.3). Mostly, this rainfall is predominantly received during winter and spring seasons, whereas a little rainfall is received during summer monsoon period. Similarly, the average annual rainfall at Chilas is 254 mm, which is a second highest rainfall receiving station after Astore. Same as Astore, at Chilas most of the rainfall occurs during winter and spring season, but the spring rainfall accede over winter precipitation. Gilgit is another met station receives less rainfall (154 mm) as compared to other met stations (Figure 4.3). Gilgit is a dry station and the annual rainfall is three-times less than the Astore.

80 Astore 70 Chilas 60 Gilgit 50

20 Mean monthly rainfall in mm in rainfall monthly Mean 10

Figure 4.3, Mean monthly rainfall recorded at Astore, Chilas and Gilgit met station

In Gilgit-Baltistan, there is wide variation is rainfall distribution. Some areas receive more precipitation as compared to other. Spatial interpolation method has been used to estimate values at unknown points (Aziz and Saba 2015). Basically, in spatial interpolation the value at a point is more influenced by near known points. The Figure 3.3 reveals that initially the annual mean for the five met stations were calculated to represent the mean rainfall at Gilgit-Baltistan and then from regional mean, deviation from actual rainfall for a specific station was calculated. These results indicate the 39

distribution of rainfall as per mean deviation from average annual regional rainfall over the Gilgit-Baltistan. The results indicate that maximum deviation from regional mean is recorded at Astore (humid station) and Gupis has a minimum deviation from regional average annual rainfall (arid region). The Figure 4.4 also reveals the Gilgit-Baltistan mean monthly rainfall (January to December for a period from 1980-2012) of five met stations (Gilgit, Gupis, Astore, Bunji and Chilas) as calculated by Aziz and Saba (2015).

Figure 4.4 Mean deviation from annual rainfall in Gilgit-Baltistan (1980-2012) modified after Aziz and Saba 2015

Using interpolation technique, the annual mean maximum temperature results for Gilgit-Baltistan were generated. The analysis reveals that Gilgit and Diamer are the hot spots in terms of maximum temperature, whereas, Astore and Gupis are comparatively cool/warm met stations. The Figure 4.5 reveals that in terms of annual mean minimum temperature the highest temperature is recorded around Diamer district. This indicate that Gilgit and Diamer are the hottest stations while assessing

both the annual mean minimum and annual mean maximum temperature. The same region also receives annual lowest rainfall as compared to eastern and western part of Gilgit-Baltistan. Even the region falls in the high elevation zone, during extreme winter the Gilgit region is well connected through KKH with rest of Pakistan, whereas in the Hunza-Nagar district the KKH sometime block by heavy snowfall.

Figure 4.5, Gilgit-Baltistan, mean monthly rainfall (January to December for a period from 1980-2012) of five

met stations (Gilgit, Gupis, Astore, Bunji and Chilas) modified after Aziz and Saba, 2015

Figure 4.6 Annual Mean Maximum Temperature of Gilgit-Baltistan (1980-2012) after Aziz and Saba 2015

4.8 KKH and China Pakistan Economic Corridor (Cpec) KKH is the backbone of China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). Vivifying maintenance and up gradation of KKH is indispensable to enhance the efficiency and sustainability of road communication between Pakistan and China. A massive mass of Chinese drivers termed traveling to Sost through KKH to be difficult and tedious as compare to other routes, whereas sixty percent mentioned that poor roads facilities needs propriety attention.

By virtue of goodness in June 2006 a memorandum of understanding (MoU) was signed between Pakistan Highway Authorities and China’s State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission (SASAC). It intends to stretch the paved width of KKH from 6.1 to 7.5 meters, significantly invigorating the carrying capacity, speed and safety (Khan, 2013). Materializing this project will be favorable to mitigate the costs of transportation and traveling on KKH faster than ever.

Another notable measure under discussion which would sustain the subsequent traffic on KKH is: linking KKH at Havelian (North of Islamabad) to Gwadar port on the Arabian Sea commonly known as China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC).

The idea of China-Pakistan Economic corridor was visualized during the reign of Pervez Musharraf (then President of Pakistan). Considerable heed was paid to the development of Gwadar Port, but initially its consignment was entrusted to Singapore Port Authority instead of China. As the Singapore Port Authority failed to deliver currently the work has been handed over to Chinese company. Premier Li Keqiang was the first one from Chinese side; which soon after got patronage from President of China XI Jinping and President Asif Ali Zardari of Pakistan and now Present Prime Minister of Pakistan, Mian Muhammad Nawaz Sharif fully backing up the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (Sheikh, 2014).

This long term Economic and strategic plan envisions a multibillion-dollar master plan with a time frame extending up to the year 2030. Kashgar (China) has been proposed to be connected to Gwadar (Pakistan) through the new and preexisted roads network of Pakistan and China, moreover connecting it across the border with Central Asian States (CAR,s) yielding the punctual economic flow of supply for merchandise through the belt. Billions of inhabitants will receive benefits of this affinity. It will pave way for economic and technical cooperation, trade and commerce, advancement of industrial domains, development of routes and rail link, oil and gas pipeline and fiber optic cables projects, promoting bilateral social interaction, exchange of political and cultural ideas and exchanges of expertise between government’s organizations. Ultimately the outcomes of these projects will have positive impacts on the economies of Pakistan and China.

Around 50 projects worth 56 billion dollars are likely to be launched in Pakistan under the CPEC. The Joint Economic Commission is composed especially to monitor the standard of execution of all projects pertaining to industry, agriculture, health, energy, transport and education sectors. In order to shape KKH befitting for traveling, up gradation of 335 km Gilgit-Khunjerab section is already completed in 2014. CPEC is an integral part of China vision of One Belt One Road (OBOR) which

will open avenues for trade with Central Asia, South Asia, South East Asia, Europe, Middle East and Africa (Khan, 2015).

4.9 CONCLUSION

To conclude this discussion, the scientific literature reveals that vast area of Gilgit-Baltistan having abundant natural resources was remain cut-off from the mainland of Pakistan until 1978. Although, an attempt was made to connect this remote area with the mainland during the British period via Kashmir, but the partition of India in 1947 has halted the project and its status. The Government of Pakistan with the technical support of China started the construction of the world high altitude KKH in 1966 and the same was subsequently completed in 1978. The construction of this historical highway not only linked Pakistan and China, but it also brought a positive change in the socio-economic prosperity of Gilgit-Baltistan region. During this period, the repair and maintenance of KKH did not stop till date. In 2008, the work on up-gradation of KKH started with the help of Chinese investment, which was completed in 2015.

SECTION – 4 ANALYSIS, RESULTS & DISCUSSION

CHAPTER -5 IMPACT OF KKH ON POPULATION

5.1 INTRODUCTION

The population of an area and its growth rate determine the socio-economic activities for the future development. Gilgit-Baltistan is situated in the extreme north of Pakistan. Prior to the construction of KKH it was cut off from the rest of the country. The inhospitable environment and inaccessibility had a negative impact on the population growth of the area as compared to its vast territory and abundant natural resources. Construction of KKH allowed better living conditions in this area. Due to this socio-economic development enhanced resulting in rapid increase in population of GB.

This chapter focuses on impact of KKH on population of Gilgit-Baltistan. The chapter is divided into five sections. After brief introduction second section deals with the population structure and growth of the study area. Section three discusses distribution of population and density while section four analyses the growth of population with respect to KKH. Chapter is concluded in the last section.

5.2 POPULATION STRUCTURE AND GROWTH

Population of Gilgit-Baltistan has increased from 254,000 in 1951 to 884,000 in 1998 with a growth rate of 2.74 per annum, (Table 5.1). An analysis of previous censuses reveals a gradual increase in population of Gilgit-Baltistan. This growth was phenomenal for the working population (30-60 year age group) during the year 2008- 2015 (Figure 5.4). These groups are economically productive and contribute a lot in the socio-economic development.

Prior to the construction of KKH, people of the region mostly depended upon primary economic activities due to which population was quite low there were not sufficient resources available to support high population. KKH connected this region to other parts of Pakistan and thereby opening new avenues for other economic activities that could support large population.

Table 5.1 Population and Area of Gilgit-Baltistan

District Area/ Population Household Growth Literacy Population Literacy sq.km (1998) size rate rate % estimated Rate % (2015) Gilgit 4208 1,48000 8.1 2.74 52.3 222,000 73 Skardu 19697 2,19000 7.8 2.24 33.4 305,000 57 Diamer 7234 1,35000 8.1 3.13 14.9 2,14000 32 Ghizer 12381 1,21000 9.0 3.08 39.56 1,90,000 70 Ghanche 8531 90,000 6.8 1.18 33.9 1,08000 61 Astore 5411 72000 8.9 3.10 38.6 1,14000 62 Hunza 15034 99000 7.7 2.74 53.7 1,48000 72 Total 72496 8,84000 8 2.56 37.85 1301000 63

Source: Population Census Organization, 2013-14.

Population has increased at a rapid pace in the districts along KKH i.e. Diamer, Gilgit and Hunza Nagar (Figure 5.1). It is obvious because KKH has brought socio-economic changes in the study area. It attracted people from surrounding districts. People migrated to these districts in large numbers. Due to this influx of people, demographic structure of these districts located near KKH have changed accounting for higher population compared to districts located away from it (Figure 5.2).

In the study area, after the inception of KKH new towns and settlements were developed along the main spine roads and junction points. This has absolutely followed the growth pole model. The analysis reveals that the population of these major settlements is growing at a very rapid pace and expected to further expand in future. New commercial and trade centres were also developed, which attracted the population from the surrounding areas for employment, education and health facilities.

250000

200000

150000

100000 Noof Persons

50000

0 Gilgit Skardu Diamer Ghizer Ghanche Astore Hunza

Figure 5.1, Gilgit-Baltistan, District-wise population in 1998

250,000 Area in sq.km 200,000

150,000

100,000

50,000

Figure 5.2, Gilgit-Baltistan, District-wise Area versus population in 1998

The analysis reveals that a radical change has been recorded in three districts through which KKH passes including District Diamer, District Gilgit and District Hunza-Nagar. One can observe a positive change in the population growth as compared to the other districts of Gilgit-Baltistan (Tables 5.2). This has attracted large number of population from the surrounding districts mainly due to accessibility, availability of amenities including education, health and employment. The household

size varies from district to districts (Figure 5.3). However, in the Gilgit-Baltistan, the average household size is more than the national average indicating joint family system. In terms of household size, district Ghizer has 9.1 the highest average household size, whereas Ghanche the lowest as 6.82.

Table 5.2 Population Growth of the Districts along KKH

Districts 1951 1961 1972 1981 1998 2015 (Estimated) Diamer 16,060 31,468 55,680 72,480 135,000 214, 000 Gilgit 24,572 35,580 51,248 70,690 1,48000 222,000 Hunza 15,691 30,567 46,468 68,872 99,000 148,000

Source: Population Census Organization, 2013-14

10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 Gilgit- Ghanch Pakista Gilgit Skardu Diamer Ghizer Astore Hunza Baltista Number persons of per household e n n Household size 8.1 7.8 8.1 9.1 6.82 8.9 7.7 8.1 6.8

Figure 5.3, District-wise average household size and its comparison with Gilgit- Baltistan province and Pakistan as per recent population census, 1998

Table. 5.3 Growth Rates of Districts along the KKH Census Year Diamer Gilgit Hunza 1951 2.0 1.98 1.98 1961 2.0 1.98 1.98 1972 2.20 2.64 2.64 1981 2.45 3.81 3.81 1998 3.13 2.74 2.74 2015 (Estimated) 3.0 2.8 2.8

Source: Population Census Organization, 2014-15

3.5

2.5

1.5

0.5

Average annual growth rate growth annual Average 0 Gilgit- Skard Diam Ghize Ghan Astor Hunz Pakist Gilgit Baltis u er r che e a an tan Growth Rate 2.74 2.24 3.13 3.08 1.18 3.1 2.74 2.6 2.69

Figure 5.4, Gilgit-Baltistan district-wise average annual population growth rate and its comparison with Gilgit-Baltistan and Pakistan as per recent population census, 1998

5.3 DISTRIBUTION AND DENSITY OF POPULATION

Gilgit-Baltistan is one of the sparsely populated areas of Pakistan (Figure 5.5). The reason behind this scarcity of population is its remoteness and lack of basic infrastructure facilities, which are very important for high population. Prior to the construction of KKH the area of GB was not well connected to the rest of the country and its inhabitants were living in isolation with limited resources. The construction of KKH not only connected the area and its people but brought a positive change in the socio-economic condition of GB.

Figure 5.5 Gilgit-Baltistan density of Population 1998 and 2015

Table 5.4 reveals that drastic changes have occurred in in demographic structure of Gilgit-Baltistan. The density of population increased from 12 persons per square kilometers in 1998 to 18 (Figure 5.5 & 5.6). However this density is still very low as compared to other areas. The ratio of urban population has increased which shows the signs of development. Owing to increased connectivity and enhanced economic conditions, literacy rate has also enhanced. As construction in the harsh

mountainous area is very difficult people prefer to live in a joint family system. That is why average size of household and person per room was higher (Table 5.4).

Figure 5.6, Gilgit-Baltistan, change in population density 1998 and 2015

Table 5.4 Population Indicators in Gilgit-Baltistan Indicators 1998 Estimated 2015 Area in square kilometer 72,496 72,496 Population 8,84,000 1301000 Male Population 4,62,000 6,80,000 Female Population 4,22,000 6,21,000 Urban Population 1,27,000 2,42,000 Rural Population 7,57,000 1,059000 Density per square kilometer 12 18 Annual Growth rate 2.56 2.74 Sex ratio (male/hundred female) 109 109 Average Household person per room 08 08 % of population having one room 14 14 % of population Accessing pipe water 34 60 % of Household without latrine 20 18 % of Household having electricity 16 95 Literacy rate in % 37.85 63 Literacy rate male in % 52.62 70 Literacy rate female in % 21.15 50

Source: Population Census Organization, 2014-15

After the independence of Pakistan first census was held in 1951. At that time the total population of GB was only 254,000. The people of GB were living a very miserable life with no medical and educational facilities. Figure 5.5 indicates that a sharp increase in population is visible after 1981 census (Figure, 5.7). This is the period of development when GB was connected through KKH.

2000000 1800000 1600000 1400000 1200000 1000000 800000 600000 400000

200000 Populationin number 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 Percent Increase 21.6 35.39 37.8 53 100 Population 254,000 308,000 417,000 575,000 883,799 1,870,79 Year 1951 1961 1972 1981 1998 0

Figure 5.7, Gilgit-Baltistan, Change in Population 1951, 1961, 1972, 1981, 1998 and 2015

5.4 POPULATION AND KKH

Gilgit-Baltistan has shown a tremendous development after the construction of KKH. An isolated society has been transformed itself to a developed society by connecting it to the rest of Pakistan. The annual growth rate was higher than the rest of the country i.e. 2.74 (Table 5.4). The vast unpopulated area of Gilgit-Baltistan is increasingly becoming populated (Figure 5.6). KKH is playing a vital role in the socio-economic development of Gilgit-Baltistan. The annual flow of domestic tourists has increased tremendously. In the year 2014 more than 100,000 domestic tourists visited this region. Population growth is directly related to socio-economic development of an area and KKH has provided the opportunity to the vast sparsely populated area of Gilgit-Baltistan.

350,000

300,000

250,000

200,000

150,000

100,000 Number of persons of Number 50,000

0 Skard Diame Ghanc Gilgit Ghizer Astore Hunza u r he Population 1998 148,000219,000135,000121,000 90,000 72,000 99,000 Est Population 2015 222,000305,000214,000190,000108,000114,000148,000

Figure 5.8, Gilgit-Baltistan, District-wise distribution of 1998 and 2015 population

Age and sex composition is one of the most important indicators in population census. It is also of great significance for policy makers while framing future policy for the socio-economic development of an area. The above figure shows that working population (30-40 years) constitute about 44% of its population, which means the energetic and young working class is available in good number for contributing in the socio-economic development of GB. The ratio of population aging 50-54 is high as compare to young but it is also an encouraging sign as they also having the experience and potential to contribute in the development process.

5.5 CONCLUSION

Accessibility and development has a direct correlation with the increase in population. Gilgit-Baltistan is a perfect example of it. Look at the population trends in GB it is clear that before the construction of KKH, it was very sparsely populated region though it had a vast area with abundant resources. However, with the construction of KKH positive changes occurred in social as well as economic sector of Gilgit-Baltistan. Gilgit and Skardu became major urban centres and well off people prefer to live in these urban centres. Due to this, population of those regions that are directly connected through KKH, have increased tremendously. It was found from the analysis that KKH has a multiplier effect on the overall socio-economic development of Gilgit-Baltistan.

CHAPTER -6 IMPACT OF KKH ON LAND USE AND AGRICULTURE

6.1 INTRODUCTION

This chapter deals with the impact of KKH on the land use and agricultural development of Gilgit-Baltistan. The chapter is divided into four major sections. Section one discusses the chapter introduction, whereas section two analyses the impact of KKH on the land use of Gilgit-Baltistan. In this section, three sample districts namely Hunza-Nagar, Gilgit and Diamer were selected for spatial and temporal land use land cover analysis. These are the sample districts where KKH passes through. Section three has highlighted the impact of KKH on the agricultural development of Gilgit-Baltistan. In this section an attempt has been made to describe the pre and post KKH status of agriculture, cropping pattern, mechanization of agriculture, impact of mechanization on women’s workload, use of chemical fertilizers, agricultural yield and productivity. The chapter is concluded in the fourth section.

Prior to the construction of the KKH, Gilgit-Baltistan was isolated and connected with rest of the country by air and seasonal jeep-able roads. After the intervention in the form of KKH, all the valleys are now inter-connected with main spine roads and sub-roads linked with KKH. It has greatly contributed in boosting-up the agriculture economy of Gilgit-Baltistan with farm to market roads. The diffusion of technology, development works and interaction with the wider society in Pakistan has affected the lives of the people. The study region is the home of subsistence farming. Farmers are now being increasingly shifting into cash crops, off farm employment and business activities. Agriculture and livestock, which were once traditional source of sustenance, seem to be losing their ground replacing by cash crops.

Before the construction of KKH, the agro-based economy was at very basic level. The scarce farmland and remoteness was based on subsistence and the crop self-sufficiency was limited. The tools used for agriculture purpose was in old fashion since centuries. The yield from agriculture was low and hardly enough to survive. The

entire study area was backward and had miserable economic condition. Prior to the construction of KKH, the period from March to as far as June was considered critical, when whelming majority of the population faced shortage of staple food grain.

6.2 IMPACT OF KKH ON LAND USE LAND COVER

Land use land cover change detection is the process of exploring variation in the state of an object at temporal scale (Yar et al. 2016). Using multi-spectral temporal satellite remote sensing data of Landsat helps in exploring changes with time-scale. The Gilgit-Baltistan has total seven districts and KKH passes through District Hunza-Nagar, District Gilgit and District Diamer. It is therefore, these three sample districts were selected for land use land cover analysis. In this study, an attempt has been made to identify the impact assessment of KKH on the land use land cover of three sample districts namely, Hunza-Nagar, Gilgit and Diamer. Multi- spectral Landsat images of November 1996 and November 2016 were obtained from the open source and were analysed for change detection in twenty years span using ArcGIS. Land use land cover spatial data is essential for planners, decision makers and for those who are concerned with land resource management. Land cover is actually the observed bio-physical coverage on the earth’s surface and broadly includes agricultural land, forest cover, water body, bare surfaces and man-made features and infrastructures.

6.2.1 Land Use Land Cover of 1996

In this research, the changes in land use land cover of the three sample districts from 1996 and 2016 have been detected. The study area selected for detailed land use land cover change analysis consists of three districts of Gilgit-Baltistan namely, Diamer, Gilgit and Hunza-Nagar. In Gilgit-Baltistan, KKH passes through these three sample districts. Figure 6.1 shows the Landsat 5 multi-spectral mosaic image of District Hunza-Nagar, District Gilgit and District Diamer with pre classified image of September/November 1996. Similarly, Figure 6.2 indicates the Landsat 5 multi-spectral classified image of District Hunza-Nagar, District Gilgit and District Diamer of September/November 1996. In the three sample districts, the land use land cover is classified into six major categories including agriculture al land, built-up area, vegetation, water body, snow cover and barren land (Table 6.1).

The image analysis of Landsat data indicate that in 1996 area under barren surface in the three sample districts was more than half (54%) of the total land cover. This is mainly due to its harsh arid and semi-arid climatic condition prevailing over the Himalayas and Karakoram mountains. It is followed by area under snow cover, which is over 27% of the total area. This region is the largest snow cover area after the polar region as it has high altitudes with snow clad mountains and hosting thousands of small and large glaciers. Vegetation cover is a third major land use land cover category with over 17% share of the total area.

The analysis further revealed that in the three sample districts during 1996 area under agriculture was 131.97 Km2 making a share of 0.523% of the total surface coverage. In Gilgit-Baltistan, agricultural land is limited to fertile river valleys. Mostly terraced field dominate the scene. Similarly, built-up area was 100.527 Km2 (0.398%) and water bodies were on 58.0442 Km2 (Figure 6.2, 6.3; Table 6.1).

Figure 6.1, Landsat 5 multi-spectral image of District Hunza-Nagar, Gilgit and Diamer of September/November 1996

Figure 6.2, Landsat 5 multi-spectral classified image of District Hunza-Nagar, Gilgit and Diamer of September/November 1996

Table 6.1, Gilgit-Baltistan, Land Use Land Cover of three sample districts, 1996

s.no Class Name Area sq. km Area in percentage 1 Agricultural land 131.97 0.523 2 Built-up area 100.52 0.398 3 Vegetation 4,326.54 17.161 4 Water body 58.04 0.230 5 Snow cover 6,970.16 27.648 6 Barren Land 13,622.9 54.037 Total Area 25,206.96 100 Source: Extracted from Landsat image of September/November 1996

100000

10000

1000

100

Area Area Sq.Km (log scale) 10

Land Use Classes

Figure 6.3, Gilgit-Baltistan, Land Use Land Cover of three sample districts 1996

6.2.2 Land Use Land Cover of 2016

In Gilgit-Baltistan, land use land cover is classified into six categories. The Landsat multi-spectral image analysis and resultant classification of 2016 reveals that, Similar to land use land cover classification, the signatures were selected as agricultural land, built-up area, vegetation, water bodies, snow cover and barren land. The analysis reveals that snow cover and barren land were the two major classes occupying almost 80% of the total land cover (Figure 6.4; Figure 6.5; Table 6.2). However, in rest of the four land cover classes, over 19% is under vegetation cover followed by built-up area (0.74%), agricultural land (0.36%) and water bodies (0.16%). The analysis further revealed that during 2016 the area under agriculture was 90.8799 Km2 (0.360%), built-up area was 185.987 Km2 (0.738%), area under vegetation cover was 4,944.4 Km2 (19.615%), water bodies were on 41.0754 Km2 (0.162%), Snow covers on 10,154.7 Km2 (40.443%) and barren land was 9,751.92 Km2 (38.679%) (Table 6.2; Figure 6.4; 6.5).

Table 6.2, Gilgit-Baltistan, Land Use Land Cover of three sample districts of 2016

S.No Class Name Area Sq. Km Area % 1 Agricultural land 90.88 0.36 2 Built-up area 185.98 0.74 3 Vegetation 4,944.44 19.61 4 Water Bodies 41.07 0.16 5 Snow cover 1,0154.70 40.44 6 Barren Land 9,751.92 38.68 Total Area 25,210.14 100 Source: Extracted from Landsat image of November 2016

Figure 6.4, Multi-spectral pre-processed Landsat 8 image of three Sample districts of Gilgit-Baltistan of September/November 2016

Figure 6.5, Gilgit-Baltistan, Landsat 8 classified image of Land Use Land Cover of three sample districts of November 2016

10000

1000

100

Area Area Sq.Km (log scale) 10

1 Agriculture Built-up Vegetation Water Snow Barren Land

Land Use Classes

Figure 6.6, Land Use/Land Cover of the Study area 2016 as per Landsat image of November 2016

6.2.3 Land Use Land Cover change analysis of 1996 and 2016

Change detection analysis describes and quantifies differences between temporal image analysis of 1996 and 2016 of the same area and band combinations. The classified images of 1996 and 2016 were used to calculate the area of various land use land cover and calculate the changes that are taking place in the time span of twenty years (1996-2016). Such kind of spatial analysis provide feedback in exploring various changes that occurring in land use classes uses and the resultant changes and trend pattern detection in land uses has been recorded.

In Gilgit-Baltistan, change in land use land cover indicates that there is a rapid increase in built-up area and a decrease in agriculture land has been noted. The analyzed data reveals that in the three sample districts, in 1996 area under agricultural land was 131.97 Km2, which decreased to 90.88 Km2 in 2016 and a decrease of - 41.09 Km2 has been noted. In 1996, the built-up area was 100.52 Km2, which increased to 185.46 Km2 (0.349%) in 2016 has been registered. The vegetation cover is increased up to 617.86 Km2. The analysis further indicates that both area under water bodies and barren surfaces decreased by 16.97 Km2 and 3,870.98 Km2, respectively. Contrary to this, area under snow cover has increased by 3,184.54 Km2 (Table 6.3; Figure 6.7; Figure 6.8).

Table 6.3, Gilgit-Baltistan, Land Use Land Cover Change Detection in three sample districts, 1996-2016

Land use Classes 1996 Area in 2016 Area in Change in Area Km2 1996- Km2 Km2 2016

Agricultural land 131.97 90.87 -41.09

Built-up area 100.52 185.98 +85.46

vegetation 4,326.54 4,944.40 +617.86

Water Body 58.04 41.07 -16.96

Snow Cover 6,970.16 10,154.70 +3184.54

Barren Land 13,622.90 9,751.92 -3870.98

Total 25,206.96 25,210.14 3.17

Source: Extracted from Landsat images of September/November 1996 and 2016

Figure 6.7, Gilgit-Baltistan, Land Use Land Cover Change Detection in three sample districts from 1996 and 2016

100000 1996 2016 10000

1000

100 Area Area Sq.Km (log scale) 10

1 Agriculture Built-up vegetation Water Snow Barren Land Land Use Classe

Figure 6.8, Land Use Land Cover Changes in three sample districts, 1996 and 2016

In Gilgit-Baltistan, Diamer district is rich in vegetation and forests, while other districts have nominal forest cover (Shah et al. 2016). According to Ministry of

Environment, in GB forest occupy approximately 1,200 square kilometers area. In these forests Juniper, fir and birch trees are dominating the scene and are in abundance. Before the construction of KKH, these forests were mainly used to meet the local requirements for fuel (firewood) and timber (AKRSP, 2010). Prior to KKH, poor accessibility, lack of communication and non-availability of transport facilities, the timber could not exchange and exported to other parts of the country. Hence, during the pre-KKH period, both local population and the Government could not get benefit fully from these forests.

6.3 IMPACT OF KKH ON AGRICULTURE

Agriculture sector is considered as the backbone of the Gilgit-Baltistan Economy. Before the construction of Karakoram Highway (KKH), agriculture was one of the backward sectors. Since the availability of water and pastures determine the places of human habitat and people mostly resided along the banks of rivers and water channels in the valley. Therefore, fields are terraced and generally small in size. The entire region is dominantly mountainous and climatically semi-arid in nature and therefore farmland is scarce and limited to fertile river valleys. As a result, the population pressure is very high on the available cultivable land. Due to regional remoteness, people were not aware of the use of chemical fertilizers, mechanization and the agricultural inputs were old and traditional. Agricultural yields were far below from the level of satisfactory (Kamal & Nasir, 1998).

In the farming system, prior to KKH local population kept a fine balance between growing food and fodder crops, keeping livestock for manure and other animal products and a small orchard for fruit and forest trees for fodder and firewood. The system was sustainable and capable to meet the basic requirements for food, fodder, energy, clothing and other family needs. It must be noted that regular shortages occurred in winter and situation become more vulnerable when crops get fail and lead to starvation.

In the study are the main source of income and livelihood is Agriculture and Livestock. During the last 40 years after the inception of KKH a lot of development occurred and people are earning more besides agriculture but still agriculture is the major source for a large population. In the study region, incomes from agriculture

account for 53% of the total incomes earned by households indicating importance and role of agriculture sector in livelihoods earning sources. There is growing opportunity producing cash crops, dry fruits packing and exchange (Dittmann, 1994; Ali, 2004). After the inception of KKH, such radical changes in agricultural sector are attributed to awareness.

6.3.1 Cropping Zones and Cropping Pattern

In Gilgit-Baltistan, the uncertain climatic condition and vast differences in the altitudinal zones of various localities, in the study area different cropping zones were identified. At the low altitudinal areas such as Gilgit and Chilas, climate is favorable to practice two cropping pattern, where wheat is a dominant Rabbi Crop and maize as Kharif crop. In these areas, wheat, barley and bean are grown as Rabbi Crops, whereas in Kharif cropping season millet, pulses and other grains are grown. However, at higher elevations, the climatic condition is too harsh and not favorable to grow crops in Kharif and Rabbi Seasons. Over the higher altitudes, the long cold freezing winter does not allow the seeds to germinate. Therefore, a single crop is grown in a year and hence the self-sufficiency remains very low.

The Table 6.4 reveals that in Gilgit-Baltistan, the vertical cropping is divided into four cropping zones namely double cropping zone (1200-1600m), marginal double cropping zone-A (1600-2000m), marginal double cropping zone-B (2000- 2400m) and upper single cropping zone (2400-3000m). The agriculture research institute, Gilgit has recently introduced short ripening high yielding seed varieties and it is expected that a positive change in agricultural production will be registered. This will help in getting two crops in a year.

Table 6.4, Gilgit-Baltistan, Cropping Zones and Cropping Pattern

Name of Zone Altitude in m Cropping Areas Dominant crops

Double Crop Zone 1200-1600 Chilas, Jaglot, Gilgit Wheat, Maize, Barley, vegetable, clover,

Marginal Double 1600-2000 Ghanche, Skardu Wheat, Maize, Barley, Crop Zone-A vegetable, clover, millet

Marginal Double 2000-2400 Karimabad, Yasin, Wheat, millet, barley, Crop Zone-B Kharmang, Khaplu turnip, vegetable

Upper Single Crop 2400-3000 Darkut, Phandar, Wheat, maize, potato, zone Naltar, Gultari barley Source: Directorate of Agriculture, Gilgit-Baltistan, 2013

6.3.2 Impact of KKH on Agriculture production

In Gilgit-Baltistan, almost all types of vegetables are grown including potato, carrot, radish, turnip, tomato and onion. Being located on high altitudes, good quality of potato is grown in most parts of Gilgit-Baltistan (Kamal & Nasir, 1998; Rahman et al. 2013). Fruits of Gilgit-Baltistan include apple, apricot, mulberry, walnut, grapes, almond, and cherry. Although in the region, better varieties of apple and apricots were available in abundance, but due to non-access to market and non-availability of better storage facilities, a huge quantity of these fruits are wasted. People of the area could not utilize the available agricultural products properly before the construction of KKH.

The construction of KKH has helped in transfer of technology and development of agriculture sector. The farmers of Gilgit, Skardu, Diamer, Hunza- Nagar and the surrounding areas have become accustomed of mechanization and the use of modern tools such as tractors for cultivating, harvesters, transportation of agricultural products and threshing. Fertilizers have been widely used as a major agricultural input after the construction of KKH and the application of chemical fertilizers is gaining importance day-by-day. It is therefore, the yield of agriculture

sector has increased after the construction of KKH. The Table 6.5 shows the development of agricultural production.

Table. 6.5, Gilgit-Baltistan, Agricultural Production, 2012-13

Name Yield District District District District District Total of in Gilgit Ghizer Skardu Ghanche Diamer acreage Crop ton in ha in ha in ha in ha in ha in ha /ha

Wheat/ .8 9,000 7,560 19,800 10800 16,200 63,360 Barley

Maize 2.8 9,800 5,600 1,400 - 11,200 28,000

Minor 1.1 220 165 165 55 605 1,210 Crops

Total 19,020 13,325 21,325 10,855 28,005 92,570

Source: Directorate of Agriculture, Gilgit-Baltistan.2013

In the study area, the high altitude, climatic and other conditions in isolated valleys of Gilgit-Baltistan are suitable for the production of quality vegetable, production and processing of fruits especially apricots, apples and production of certified potato seeds. Fruits of Gilgit-Baltistan were compatible in the national/international market. High quality of fruits such as apple, pear, walnut, apricots and cherry are available in the area. Opening of KKH for traffic has helped in bringing the surplus of these fruits into the market. Before the construction of KKH majority of these surplus fruits were wasted (Table 6.3). Due to the adoption of the developed production techniques the production of fruits has also been increased considerably.

In Gilgit-Baltistan, during 2012-13 total wheat requirement was 135,000 tons, whereas the local production in the same year was 93,000 tons with a deficiency of 43,000 tons (GoGB 2013). Furthermore, to meet deficit wheat requirements and fulfillment of demands of growing population, 43,000 tons wheat was imported.

The construction of KKH and other inter-valley link road has helped in introducing a marketing system. It has helped in exploiting the local agricultural products in both national and international markets. Now the inhabitants of the area could bring their surplus products such as apricots, potato, fruits in the market which were previously gone in waste. The AKRSP is imparting training to village organizations in marketing fresh and dry fruits locally and to other parts of the country.

Table.6.6, Gilgit-Baltistan, Area and Production of Important fruits

Type of No. of trees Area in Production in tons Fruits hectares Bearing Non-bearing Fresh Dry Nuts

Apricot 1,035,200 201,571 6,470 60,305 - -

Apple 48,884 21,898 315 24,442 - -

Almond 4,456 28,275 315 - - 883

Grapes 63,902 9,289 399 61,345 - -

Walnut 5,547 16,542 318 - - 887

Mulberry 183,680 21,118 1,148 18,225 - -

Cherry 83,000 37,000 400 1,660 - -

Pears 11,782 3,518 68 8,247 - -

Others 139,808 42,826 587 16,938 - -

Total 1,626,259 382,137 10,000 191,162 - 1,770

Source: Directorate of Agriculture, Gilgit-Baltistan.2013

In the study area climatic conditions are also suitable for the production of high quality fruits especially apricot for processing and marketing which has good market potential at home and abroad. Connection of the area through KKH with the rest of the country has brought certain techniques of drying these valuable fruits and has been using in the local market. However, these are small proportion of the total

production. A big proportion is going into waste. The department of Agriculture is collaborating with PCSIR in the processing of apricot. The department has built a solar drying system and the PCSIR has established a fruit processing zone in Gilgit (World Bank, 2011).This can be replicated successfully in other parts of Gilgit- Baltistan. Production of other fruits like cherry, apple, walnut and almond is also in progress.

The construction of KKH facilitated UNDP to launch various agro development based projects in the area. The area was found suitable for Potato production. As a result production of potato on commercial basis has increased manifold. People of the area are seeing a comfortable profit margin with regards to potato production. In 2008, the estimated production of potato was about 82,000 metric ton. It has been estimated that the potato growers of the area earned 756,000 million against this production (Table 6.7).

Table 6.7, Gilgit-Baltistan, Estimated Area and Production of Table Potato 2008- 10

S.No. Production Area (hec) Qty (M.T) Cost (Million) Area

1. Gilgit 1680 42000 396.000

2. Skardu 600 15000 135.000

3. Ghanche 600 15000 135.000

4. Ghizar 200 5000 45.000

5. Diamir 200 5000 45.000

Total: 3280 82000 756.000

Source: Directorate of Agriculture, Gilgit-Baltistan.2013

The climatic condition and the high altitude of the area are the most appropriate for developing disease free seed potato. Hence the production and rapid multiplication of disease free seed potato has increased manifolds. The private seed

companies during 2008-10 have produced the following quantity of certified seed potato:

Table. 6.8 Certified Seed Potato Production by Private Seed Companies 2008-10

Name of company Areas (ha) Production (m.t)

Jaffar Brothers Ltd, Lahore 25.8 1880.34

Abdul Ghafoor Bhatti Seed Company, Lahore 14.6 462.69

Jabbar Combine Lahore (JCI) 27.5 932.78

Gilgit Apricot Marketing Association Hunza 6.3 207.62

Total: 74.2 3483.33

Source: Directorate of Agriculture, Gilgit-Baltistan, 2013

In Gilgit-Baltistan, application of fertilizers, seeds and provision of water are the key agriculture inputs for getting high yields. However, after the KKH, the accessibility increased and the area is linked with main spine routes (Begum, 1986). The highway has open the study region for commerce and trade. Avenues for employment have been opened and latest trend and mechanization has been introduced in the agriculture sector. It has also helped in introduction new crop varieties, vegetables and fruits (Table 6.6 and 6.7).

Most on-farm activities in the study area is not producing according to its potential whether it is vegetables or wheat and maize crops. The reason behind this low production is accessibility and the high cost of production. That is why besides a vast area and opportunities the production level is still very low as compare to other parts of the country. Another reason for the low production of wheat crop is the subsidy on wheat from the federal government. The local farmers prefer potatoes production which is also a cash crop and they earn more from it to purchase wheat for their survival (GOGB, 2012). The study reveals that wheat and maize production remained low during the period 2001-2012 (Table 6.9). The low production of wheat and maize does not affect the agriculture production and life style of the people of the study area because of the permanent supply of wheat from Punjab through KKH. The

commercialization process in Gilgit-Baltistan brought a slight fall in some of the fruits production as it requires a permanent care and attention (Table 6.9).

Table 6.9 Major Crops and Fruits yields in Gilgit-Baltistan

Crop yields (tons /ha) Fruit Yields (tons/ 000 trees)

Crop 2012 2001 Fruit 2012 2001

Potato 17.3 11.2 Cherry 14 19

Barley 1.9 2 Pear 46 52

Maize 2.3 4 Walnut 30 37

Wheat 2.2 2.6 Grapes 40 62

Mulberry 60 57

Apple 36 31

Apricot 62 58

Source: Directorate of Agriculture, Gilgit-Baltistan.2013

As mentioned above a decline in some of the crops does not mean that the entire process has stopped but the interest of farmers is shifted towards another crop production. The production of Apple and Apricot shows a positive sign for the local as well international markets. During the years 2001-2012 as mentioned in the above table the production of both the important fruits has risen up to 5 percent. It is also important to mention here that the study area has enormous potential of potatoes production. In our field survey we observed that farmers of Gilgit-Baltistan are much aware of the fact that is why they are paying much attention towards the production of this cash crop. According to Agriculture department Gilgit-Baltistan during the last ten years (2001-2012) the 25 percent increase is recorded in potatoes production while it has generated revenue as much as Rs. 1000 million (GOGB, 2012).

6.3.3 Mechanization of Agriculture

In the study area, KKH has played a pivotal role in the mechanization of agriculture. Prior to the construction of KKH, communication was a

major obstacle in the development of agriculture. People using animals for ploughing and threshing are now using modern machinery and technology which has increased the productivity and size of field (Nasir 1998). The study further reveals a massive development in agriculture machinery including cultivators, rotavators, trolleys, tube wells and lift pumps (Table 6.10).

Table 6.10 Gilgit-Baltistan, Comparative status of Agriculture machinery, 1994 and 2012

Major items 1994 2012 Tractors Tractors 919 1546 Implements Cultivator 152 540 Mould board plough 2 87 Chisel plough 01 13 Rotavator 0 85 Thresher 18 546 Trolley 1293 1445 Tube wells /lift pumps All tub wells /lift pumps 0 225 Private 0 175 Government 0 45 Electrics 0 89 Diesel 0 40 Private Tube wells 0 15 Centrifugal 0 2 Turbine 0 3 Well with pump 0 6 Private lift pumps 0 102 Source: Directorate of agriculture, Gilgit-Baltistan.2013

In the study area, most of the women are directly engaged in farming. The women take an active part, in farming. The contribution of manual labor by women in the agriculture sector is vital. Before the construction of KKH and the introduction of 75

tractor, almost all field operations were shared by women and man. In addition, women also worked side by side with their men during ploughing, sowing, harvesting and threshing (Cook & Butz, 2011).

After the construction of KKH, and the introduction of tractors and threshers, men take the responsibility of cultivating and threshing, while all other field operations are carried out by women in addition to the care of livestock and household duties. Besides, where men have migrated to seek employment elsewhere, women have taken up the traditionally male responsibilities including ploughing and threshing. Prior to the construction of KKH the people of Northern Area had no idea of the use of chemical fertilizers; they generally used dung. The supply of inputs like fertilizers did not reach the area due to its remoteness. In order to improve soil fertility they had to rely entirely on dung. After the construction of KKH, chemical fertilizers were for the first time introduced. As a result, farmers saw increased yield of wheat and other commodities. Almost 100% farmers now use chemical fertilizers in addition to dung (AKRSP, 2012).

In Nalter however only 30% of the households use chemical fertilizer mainly because they cannot afford to purchase it, due to the high cost of transportation from Gilgit to Nalter. According to Gilgit-Baltistan census of Agriculture 1980 53% of the farmers were reported to be using both chemical fertilizer and dung. However the 1985 wheat crop survey by AKRSP showed that about 79% of the farmers of Gilgit district were now using chemical fertilizer in addition to dung (Kamal & Nasir, 1998).

The survey analysis of Nalter reveals that farmers prefer to use dung as compared to chemical fertilizers. This is because it is easily available. Besides, Nalter is a single-cropped area where the emphasis is, on livestock breeding. Every household has some livestock, which give some dung.

The second important factor is the inaccessibility of the area. Nalter is connected to Gilgit by a highly unstable road which often remains closed due to frequent land sliding. This difficulty of access also prohibits the farmer to use chemical fertilizer.

Nitrophos fertilizers are the most commonly used by the wheat growers. The other fertilizers used are-Urea and Nitrate. None of the farmer used DAP. It was

argued that the soil have low nitrogen level, but adequate phosphorus and potassium levels. DAP has 46% of phosphate. Local soils are not deficient in Phosphate. Hence this type of introduced crop varieties as compared to local varieties. On an average 65 Kg/hectors of nitrogen and 40 Kg/hectares of phosphorous are used on wheat crop (Alam et, al, 2012).

Due to its remoteness and non-accessibility with the other regions the local people of the study area rely upon the agriculture and livestock. The harsh terrain and inhospitable environment in most of the area was another hurdle besides proper irrigation for the low production. The poor peasants took a sigh of relief after the construction of KKH, due to which the deficiency of grains and food items in the area reached frequently. As mentioned above the difficulties facing the local farmers and due to lack of policy making for a sustainable development of agriculture sector in Gilgit-Baltistan is still lagging behind (AKRSP, 2012). Despite all the challenges and hurdles the enthusiastic farmers have not given up and they are transforming their centuries old traditional farming to a more dynamic and modern technique. Again it is the accessibility from cropping area to the local and international markets as well as to the other provinces which is encouraging the farmer and peasants to grow more and more agricultural products. Prominent among the growing crop production is Potato, Apple and cherry.

The analysis reveals that the study area has enormous potential to increase the agriculture production which is only one percent of the total area. It requires a long term policy to mitigate the problems of local farmers and encourage them to grow more crops. KKH is serving as a lifeline for the study area but linking the vast area to KKH is also a mammoth task, developing infrastructure and providing modern technology with educating the farmers is desperately needed (Ali, 2004). Pakistan is blessed with enormous potential of agriculture and dairy products as it stands no five in dairy production. The study area needs attention to utilize this potential. Huge infrastructural development requires government attention as well as international investment but to get benefits from that investment is also a challenge. China is investing a lot in the energy sector under CPEC in different parts of Pakistan in which Gilgit is also included (DAWN, 2015).

6.3.4 Processing of Agricultural products

In the study area processing of agricultural products is negligible. The reason for this is obvious as the production level is low and the distances within the region is very high so the poor farmers did not have the capacity to process the products. That is why the waste rate of vegetables and fruits is also high. Accept an apricot which is not wasted all the fruits and vegetables in the study area are sold fresh in the market as well as other parts of the country. It is not only the case in the research area but all over Pakistan farmers does the same practice. The exporters or the buyers in the big markets have the capacity to process these items and they normally do. The study area shows high wastage rate because of its low production levels (World Bank, 2011). Labeling and packing export quality Honey is another good option for the local people associated with this profession. Traditional style of meat processing is still followed especially in winter season due to snowfall. Another important and high value product is woolen dresses and carpets a little expensive due to its high cost and time consumption. Furniture products and wooden construction material the examples of forest based processing. Deforestation is bearing negative impacts on environment and tourism. Its only remedy is to grow more and more forests.

6.3.5 Marketing of Agricultural Products

In the study area marketing of agricultural products is still low. People mostly produce the crops for their domestic needs not for commercial advantages. Potato is the main cash crop of the most of farming activity. Potato production has 82 percent share in the overall cash crops market. In fruits production Apples, Cherries, apricot and almonds is having a greater share. The level of value as well production can be increased by giving much attention to these valuable fruits (Sökefeld, 2014).

The environment and climatic conditions of Gilgit-Baltistan is very much favorable for vegetable and fruits like potatoes, apricot and cherries. Potatoes and cherry crops are picked in june and july which provides an edge to this area over other parts of Pakistan because their picking time is February and march. So the study area is not only self-sufficient in potato production but also provides seed potatoes to other provinces. The average supply of seed potatoes is estimated as many as 23000 metric tons (AKRSP, 2012). the area has possess high potential of more production if the government as well as local community take keen interest in developing the

agriculture sector. The up gradation of KKH has brought many socio-economic changes e.g. chemical fertilizers are available at subsidized rates in the local markets, banking facilities which was once a dream for the local populace is now reality. The future of Gilgit-Baltistan is very bright as for as agriculture and fruits production is concerned.

The analysis reveals that the study area has different climatic conditions and cropping patterns from other provinces. Excluding fruits production most of the farming areas produces one crop in a year which minimize the incomes of farmers and agriculture related activities. Most of the mountains in the study area are dry and barren accept Diamer and Hunza valley (Mahmud, 2007). Due to this tough mountainous terrain only one percent in the vast area of Gilgit-Baltistan falls under cultivable land.

Restricted agricultural activities have negative impacts on the overall incomes. It is obvious because only one percent land is used for farming. Patchy agriculture process becomes expensive for the farmers in terms of low incomes. Accumulation and adjustment of farm production for marketing and processing purpose is a mammoth ask. In Agriculture sector low income and production of one crop badly affects the income of another crop. In the study area most of the farmers prefer those crops which provide forage for their animals, so it also affects the standard of farming activities and create hurdles for development in this sector (Stellrecht, 1997).

Long distance from one area to the other in harsh mountainous terrain and detachment form the markets is also a big problem. Although KKH has broken up their isolation from the rest of the country but still the distance is high enough for the fresh and fragile fruits. It requires high standard vehicles that make it sure to bring these quality products in good form for the local market as well as for export. Storage facilities is also lacking in the study area which is highly recommended due to the above mentioned difficulties. Only 500 metric ton potatoes are stored in the available resources (World Bank, 2011).

The construction of KKH has helped in transfer of technology and development of agriculture sector in a visible way. The farmer of Gilgit HQ, Skardu HQ and Chilas HQ and the surrounding areas have become accustomed of the use of modern tools such as tractors for ploughing, transportation of goods and threshering

purposes. Fertilizers have been widely using in the post KKH era. The use of chemical fertilizers is increasing day by day. The yield of agriculture sector has increased after the construction of KKH (Akhtar, 2013). The following table shows the development of agricultural production.

Further to meet deficit wheat production, Government was able to import at average 20,000 tons wheat on subsidized rates in the area besides 22,000 tons by private sector. Details are as under:

Total food-grain required: 135,000 tons

Local production 93,000 tons

Deficiency 43,000 tons

Supply of subsidized wheat 20,000 tons

Receiving through private dealers 22,000 tons

Building of KKH and other inter-valley link road has helped in introducing a marketing system. It has helped in exploiting the local Agricultural products in the national/international markets. Now the inhabitants of the area could bring their surplus products such as apricots, potato, fruits in the market which were previously gone in waste. The N.G.Os especially AKRSP are imparting training to Village Organizations in marketing of fruits to down country.

The high altitude, the climatic and other condition as well as dry and isolated valleys of Gilgit-Baltistan are highly suitable for the production of quality vegetable seeds, production and processing of fruits especially apricots and apples and production of certified potato seeds (Balghari, 2013).

Fruits of Gilgit-Baltistan were compatible in the national/international market. High quality of fruits such as apple, pear, walnut, apricots and cherry are available in the area. Opening of KKH for traffic has helped in bringing the surplus of these fruits into the market. In the pre-KKH era, a vast majority of these surplus fruits were gone in waste. Due to the adoption of the developed production techniques the production of fruits has also been increased considerably.

The climatic and other conditions are also highly suitable for the production of high quality fruits especially apricot for processing and marketing, which has good market potential at home and abroad. In the pre-KKH era, the vast quantity of apricots was gone into rotting. But in the post-KKH era, certain techniques of drying these valuable fruits have been using and a huge quantity of these have been brought in the local market. However, these are small proportion of the total production. A big proportion is going into waste. The department of Agriculture is collaborating with PCSIR in the processing of apricot. The department has built a solar drying system and the PCSIR has established a fruit processing zone in Gilgit (Akhtar, 2013).

This can be replicated successfully in other parts of Gilgit-Baltistan as well. Production of other fruits like cherry, apple, walnut and almond is also in progress. The opening of KKH has resulted in encouraging the people of Northern Areas to develop fruit orchards and the inter-cropping of alfalfa.

The construction of KKH facilitated UNDP and FAO to launch various agro development based projects in the area. The area found suitable for Potato production. As a result production of potato on commercial basis has increased manifold. People of the area seeing a comfortable profit margin with regards to potato, has started to producing potato at a larger scale. In 1996, the estimated production of potato was about 82,000 metric ton. It has been estimated that the potato growers of the area earned 756,000 million against this production.

6.3.6 Marketing of Agricultural products in Gilgit-Baltistan

The study reveals that low agricultural production and isolation did not allow the local farmers to compete in the markets. Again it was possible only after the construction of KKH that the doors of new markets were opened for the people of Gilgit-Baltistan. Still a lot of potential is available in this sector and strong policy

measures are required to enhance the marketing of valuable products of this area. During the last 15 years people related to farming are now aware of the fact that how much their products are valuable and how can they gain more profits in different markets. About 3000 male and female farmers were trained for marketing and processing Agriculture department of Gilgit-Baltistan (Hussain et.al. 2011). In order to decrease heavy losses of crops a vegetable and fruit dispensation laboratory is established in Gilgit. Marketing in Dairy products is also necessary and some initiatives have been taken by Dairy development board to provide fresh milk in urban areas. The local farmers, businessman and government of Gilgit-Baltistan need to augment the marketing sector within and outside the region.

6.3.7 New Lands and irrigation means

The analysis reveals that creating opportunities by developing new farms and irrigation means for agriculture purposes is essential because a huge area is lying barren and uncultivated. The role of society is crucial in this regard because many times it happens that government initiatives are failed due to negative response of the society. Anyhow in case of Gilgit-Baltistan it’s a totally different story. The people of this area are very much peaceful and hardworking. They welcome all good and positive initiatives by the government and non-governmental organization (Zain, 2010). So it is high time for government to create more opportunities in agriculture sector.

6.3.8 Economic Management Improving

The study area is lacking long term policies regarding agriculture sector. Only 2 percent of the total budget was spent on all agriculture related fields during the year 2008-09 (Table, 6.11). It was raised to 3 percent in 2011-12 and 4 percent during 2015-16 financial years. Pakistan as an agricultural country has enormous potential to develop this sector. It requires long term policies and its implementation. Lakhs of acres of agricultural land is lying barren in every province. Small dams for irrigation purposes are a viable solution in Gilgit-Baltistan to improve and sustain its agricultural production.

6.3.9 Impact of KKH on Livestock

The study reveals that low productivity in the livestock sector is also of high concern. Livestock products such as, milk, meat, wool and leather is of great importance for the local people as well as for traditional products. The number of animals in the study area has increased manifold during the years 1996 to 2006 (Table 6.11). The analysis reveals that despite of small increase in livestock the whole area is still facing deficiency of milk and meat production. The deficiency is covered by tetra pack synthesized milk and other dairy products supplied from Rawalpindi through KKH. The study area is blessed with natural vegetation and naturally fit environment for many types of livestock. After the construction of KKH the interaction of local community with other parts of the country encouraged the local populace to develop this sector as well. The following table and graph shows a detailed picture of Livestock development in the study area.

Table 6.11 Gilgit-Baltistan, Comparative status of livestock census 1996 and 2006

Types of animal Livestock census % variation in 2006 over 1996 1996 2006 Milk and meat animals Cattle (Cow and Ox) 315,337 434, (+) 38 851 Buffaloes 629 (+) 260 2,263 Sheep 458,132 506, (+) 10 155 Goats 697,669 931, (+) 34 821 Draft animals Camels 141 186 (+) 32 Horses 4,279 5,09 (+) 19 7 Mules 649 1,01 (+) 56 4 Asses 15,164 21,1 (+) 39 38 Yaks 14,914 16,3 (+) 09 19 Source: Directorate of Agriculture, Gilgit-Baltistan, 2013

1,000,000 900,000 1996 2006 800,000 700,000 600,000 500,000

in numbers in 400,000 300,000 200,000 100,000 0 Cattles Sheep Goats Animals for beast of burden Figure 6.9, Gilgit-Baltistan, Changes in number of livestock in 1996 and 2006 as per livestock and agriculture census

6.3.10 Implications for Agricultural development

In the research area there is a great potential for agricultural development. The first and foremost barrier is the harsh mountainous terrain. Irrigation facilities are very limited in the already limited agriculture sector. One of the reasons for low production is the small size split farm lands. All these implications are further aggravated by the distances from farm to market. Again the importance of accessibility is evident which proves the significance of KKH for Gilgit-Baltistan. Link roads connecting KKH and the remote valleys are still in bad condition and it requires proper arrangements (World Bank, 2009). Although the federal and provincial governments are paying attention to bring long term improvements in this sector but still its lagging behind and requires more attention.

6.4 THE ROLE OF PRIVATE SECTOR IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF AGRICULTURE IN GILGIT-BALTISTAN

The private sector organisations have played a vital role along with government institutions in the development of agriculture sector of Gilgit-Baltistan. In this regard one cannot deny the role of AKRSP which invested billions of dollars almost in all the socio-economic sectors of the area. Still it is the largest organization which is contributing in the development of this remote area after the Government of 85

Pakistan. More than 21,000 farmers have been trained in advanced techniques of farming under the umbrella of AKRSP (AKRSP, 2012). The orgnisation have focused heavily on community development, such as providing seeds and agricultural tools, making irrigation channels and small roads etc.

6.5 CONCLUSION

To conclude the chapter on impact of KKH on land use and agriculture, the land of Gilgit-Baltistan is mostly virgin with adequate water resources and responsive beneficiary communities. However, rugged topography, poor infrastructure, small fragmented landholdings and lack of trained and experienced manpower are the main hurdles in agricultural development. Climate of Gilgit-Baltistan is ideally suited for the production of good quality fruits and off season vegetables. Gilgit-Baltistan has the potential to produce good quality of fruits, vegetable and seeds. Natural calamities, urbanization and population explosion are the potential threats to the agricultural development of Gilgit-Baltistan.

The fruits and vegetables are rich source of vitamins and other nutrients. These are high value cash crops and main source of income of rural population in GB. The government is giving high priority to the development of agriculture in general and vegetables and fruits in particular. Nevertheless, large proportion of fruits and vegetables produced are wasted owing to in-efficient marketing system, lack of storage facilities and food processing zones etc. such a situation if allowed to persist will certainly work against the growing commercial activities in this sector. Small land holdings and mostly the agricultural land is single cropped and almost one-third of farmland is double cropped. Food grain production for human consumption is on the lower level. Efforts have therefore been made to diversify agriculture for the production of quality vegetable seeds and fruits to reduce the pressure of imports. Vegetable seeds produced in Gilgit-Baltistan are more healthy and cheaper as compare to the imported seeds.

Government of Gilgit-Baltistan and Pakistan is aware of the problems and is keen to remove the bottlenecks. However, the development of physical infrastructure such as roads, markets, cold storages and provision of support services need more attention and investments. It is also important to mention here that globally focus is

shifting from plain agriculture to mountain agriculture. In plains, the major factors of production including soil, water and ecology have been largely over exploited and polluted due to indiscriminate use of synthetic chemicals. The mountain agriculture, in spite of all ailments, is still far behind that stage. It offers good prospects for organic produce and can thus develop growing markets in Pakistan.

CHAPTER -7 IMPACT OF KKH ON EDUCATION AND HEALTH

7.1 INTRODUCTION

This chapter focuses on the impact of KKH on education and health sector of Gilgit-Baltistan. The chapter is divided into four major sections and nineteen sub- sections. Section one deals with the chapter introduction, whereas section two analyses the impact of KKH on education sector. This section specifically highlighting the progress in education sector, literacy ratio, school enrolments and student’s teacher ratio, participation in higher education and the role of Karakoram International University in promotion of higher education. Similarly, the technical and vocational education, employment, constraints in promoting education, financing education services and the role of private sector in promotion of education in Gilgit- Baltistan are other key sub-sections of this chapter. Section three describes the impacts of KKH on the health sector. This section is particularly dealt with the progress in health sector, health institutions, maternal and child health, presence and recurrences of major diseases and constraints in health sector and financing in health sector. The chapter is finally concluded in the fourth section.

7.2 IMPACT OF KKH ON EDUCATION SECTOR

For a sustainable development of an area, the inhabitants of the area must be physically fit, healthy, civilized and formally educated (Khan 2004). An educated and healthy environment contributes to the economic development of any region (Khalid 2003). Similarly, the contribution of education and training are of utmost importance for human development (Shams 2006). In Gilgit-Baltistan, the low literacy and poor health situation were the major hurdles in the socio-economic uplift during the past (Khan 2000). However, after the inception of KKH, the education and other social condition are gradually gaining importance and increase in the accessibility. In the past wide spread poverty was existed in the entire area. Due to deficiency of nutrition, majority of the population especially the women segment were in miserable condition. As a consequence, in Gilgit-Baltistan the infant mortality was very high.

The analysis reveals that harsh mountainous terrain and long distances in the study area effects on educational development. Small villages with no link roads make it difficult for government to build schools in every village with adequate facilities. The private sector also has no attraction in such areas. The socio-cultural environment is also one of a hurdle in promoting education especially for females. The federal government, Agha khan education services of Pakistan, National education foundation and private sector has contributed a lot in education sector (World Bank, 2011). At primary level almost every village of Gilgit-Baltistan has got the school facility. At middle and high levels every two to three villages is having a public sector schools, while the number of colleges are also increasing. Before the construction of KKH the people of study area were totally ignored regarding education. All the development in education sector we and the inhabitants of the area is witnessing was only possible in the last 30 to 35 years after the inauguration of KKH.

Education is a long term investment for socio-economic development of a society. Institutions require a lot of time to build up, strengthen and deliver up to the mark. The world famous education institutions delivered after centuries of services in educating their youth and research activities. Expecting high quality and deliverance at this stage from a transitional society is not good (Benz, 2014). The study has transformed itself to more educated society than it was before 1978. As mentioned above a lot has been achieved during the last 35 years but still the sector requires more attention to strengthen and deliver for socio-economic development of the area. Now it’s high time for the authorities to facilitate the society with qualified staff and quality education after infrastructural development. A big responsibility also lies on the shoulders of teachers, parents and students to take the responsibility and develop their society.

The analysis reveals that development of education sector in the study area requires three main initiatives. To insure education access for all the people, this objective have almost been achieved almost at primary to high levels. Although there are hurdles regarding walks from home schools but it is obvious due to the geography of the area. To insure the quality of education in the study area, it will take some time as the institutions are relatively new and not fully equipped. Quality education also

requires high qualified teachers, trainers and inducements. And last but not the least to produce skillful labor which requires technical education. The progress of educational development of the study area is discussed in detail in this chapter.

7.2.1 Growth and Development of Education Sector

In the study region, during the pre-independence era (prior to 1947), proper attention was not given to the development of education sector. In this regards, the Dogra regimes had been blamed that due considerations to education and establishment of formal educational institutions was not given. The literature revealed that there were mere three middle schools and eighty primary schools for males in the entire province at the time of independence. And the students who were eager to continue their studies had either to go Srinagar (capital city of Indian part of Jammu & Kashmir), Deoband (pioneering institution of Islamic education in Indo- Subcontinent) and Aligarh Muslim University. The women folk of the area were totally neglected section of the society for education. Resultantly, there is wide spread illiteracy.

After independence, the Government of Pakistan gave due attention to extend educational amenities to the people of Gilgit-Baltistan. However, due to poor accessibility, lake of approach roads as well as means of communication and other impediments, the task to achieve high literacy was hard to materialize. Parallel to this, due to shortage of educated persons, the Government was unable to employ suitable persons in the education departments. In this regard, the Government of Gilgit- Baltistan was compelled to employ qualified people from other parts of the country and give them hard area allowances and other incentives. In the study area, during 1947 to 1976, the education system was administered by the political agent. Nevertheless, after the construction of KKH in 1978, a paradigm shift was noted and an independent Directorate of Education was established under the Federal Ministry of Education Islamabad. Soon after, in 1979, the power of running the affairs of Education Department of Gilgit-Baltistan was accorded to the Ministry of Kashmir Affairs and Gilgit-Baltistan. Since 2009, the Directorate of Education is working under the Government of Gilgit-Baltistan.

Globally, education is one of the yardsticks to measure and quantify the level of socio-economic development (AKRSP, 2012; Benz, 2014). In the study area, the outcome of education largely attributed to the existing Geographic and administrative realities. The field survey together with the Focus Group Discussion with key stakeholders reveal that access to education is particularly low in those districts where there are major topographic barriers, long distances that discourage student’s enrollments and attendance. In the study region, amongst the total literate population, large share has up to primary level education attainment. It has been estimated that the number of literate persons declines as one move from school level education to post- graduate level. The data further indicate that the education attainment is high amongst male than female population. Similarly, the share of literate population in major settlements is more than the small and scattered settlements mainly because of availability of educational institutions and trends towards education in the populous centers.

The analysis reveals that Gilgit-Baltistan has made rapid progress in education particularly after the construction of KKH. It was further reported that in many areas, the literacy ratio has kept pace with national level. However, in few remote areas the gaps in adult literacy and child education is very high and the gender gap is more especially among the people living in remote villages. According to the local elders and some responsible members of respective villages they say we cannot afford to send our girls to schools outside our village because of socio-cultural norms and traditions. They demand separate high schools for girls in their respective villages.

In Gilgit-Baltistan, the rough terrain has many implications for the delivery of education. Scattered dwelling units and its poor accessibility are the two major physical barriers in the promotion of education sector. In some part of Gilgit- Baltistan, cultural barriers in female education even in areas where girls schools are available has also encountered student’s enrolments.

In any region the quality of education is measured with the level of institutions, their capacity to deliver and the quality of staff and trainers. In the study area their exist schools and colleges of government, semi-government, non- governmental and private sectors. Nevertheless, in the study area, education system

still faces numerous challenges. In this regards, AKESP has played a vital role after the government sector to provide primary level education in almost all the villages of Gilgit-Baltistan. Private sector is also showing some encouraging signs but it will take some more time to deliver.

7.2.2 Number of Schools by district and Gender

In Gilgit-Baltistan, three streams are working in education sector including Government schools, National Education Foundation (NEF) and private sector. The analysis reveals that in Gilgit-Baltistan a substantial progress has been made in overall education sector. It was found that a positive change has been noted in adult literacy, student’s enrollment and trend towards technical and vocational education after the inception of KKH (Figure 7.1). In the entire region, the number of schools established under the government system is more than the combine schools established under the NEF and private sector. The data reveals that there are total 2,189 schools, out of which 1,095 are government schools, 675 schools under National Education Foundation and 419 schools in private sectors.

The Figure 7.1 reveals the spatial distribution of schools by district, where number of government schools dominate the scene. However, in district Ghizer the number of schools under NEF is more than the government schools. The data further reveals that majority of NEF schools are co-education (both boys and girls are enrolled), whereas under government scheme schools for boys and girls are separate. The schools run under co-education system is more both in private and NEF. The Figure 7.1 further indicates that the total number of schools in district Skardu is more (571) than rest of other six districts followed by Ghizer (349), Ghanche (310), Gilgit (264), Diamer (254), Hunza-Nagar (238) and Astore (203).

Figure 7.1, Gilgit-Baltistan, number of government, National Education Foundation and private schools by districts after Directorate of Education, Gilgit-Baltistan, 2012- 2013

7.2.3 Literacy Rate and School Enrollments

Literacy rates in Gilgit-Baltistan have shown better results during the last thirty five years. The literacy rate of the study area in 1981 was only 14 percent which is now 52 percent (GOGB, 2012). It is pertinent to not here that literacy rate of females have risen up to 38 percent which is a very encouraging sign. The gains in literacy rate is attributed to accessibility specially KKH which has transformed the whole region of Gilgit-Baltistan from a remote, primitive, deprived and ignored society to a socio-economic developed society. The role of some non-governmental organizations like Agha Khan cannot be ignored as well but anecdotal evidences proves that this development occurred only after the inception of KKH.

Table 7.1 Enrolment in Government, NEF and Private Schools by Region, District, Location, School Level and Gender

National Education Region/ Government Foundation Private All Sectors District Boys Girls Total Boys Girls Total Boys Girls Total Boys Girls Total

Gilgit 9643 11127 20770 1676 2956 4632 9310 7971 17281 20629 22054 42683

Ghizer 9523 5562 15085 3617 3890 7507 9852 10229 20081 22992 19681 42673

Diamer 15054 1653 16707 2973 1430 4403 1496 311 1807 19523 3394 22917

Astore 7292 5195 12487 1128 1455 2583 2616 1736 4352 11036 8386 19422

Hunza- Nagar 5919 6246 12165 979 2823 3802 5559 5030 10589 12457 14099 26556

Skardu 25892 14129 40021 4182 5311 9493 4452 2570 7022 34526 22010 56536

Ghanche 8652 7388 16040 3204 4547 7751 4346 2914 7260 16202 14849 31051

Source: Directorate of Education, Gilgit-Baltistan, 2012-13

7.2.4. Educational institutions, students enrolments and Teachers

The impact of KKH on education is also evident from the share of Government sector in education institutions of Gilgit-Baltistan. The data reveals that during 2012-2013 almost 55% percent students of Gilgit-Baltistan were enrolled in Government run institutions, whereas enrollment inprivate schools were 28% and only 17% students were enrolled in schools run by National Education Foundation. This clearly indicate the dominant share of Government schools. The analysis further reveals that the number of boys schools are more than the girls. It is therefore, male literacy is more than the female (Figure 7.2).

Figure 7.2, Gilgit Baltistan, number of boys and girls schools

In the study area, fifty percent of the institutions are constructed and run by the government authorities. The ratio of Government recruited teachers is much higher than any other sector i.e sixty one percent (Figure 7.3). Out of total schools, 50% schools are in government sector followed by 31% schools built and run by National Education Foundation and mere 19% of the total schools are in private sector. Out of total number of teachers, 61% teachers are in schools run under Government sector followed by 27% teachers in private sector and the rest 12% teachers share is in NEF schools.

Figure No.7.3, Gilgit-Baltistan, Sector wise share of educational institutions, students enrolments and percentage of teachers, 2012-2013

The study reveals a little difference between urban and rural divide as for as literacy rate is concerned. The literacy rate of rural area is about Fifty per cent while that of urban area is Sixty per cent. Rural literacy rates of the study area shows better results then other provinces of pakistan i.e Fourty one per cent in Khyber- Pakhtunkhwa, thirty two per cent in Balochistan, thirty eight per cent in Sindh, fourty eight per cent in punjab as compare to Fifty per cent in Gilgit-Baltistan (Figure 7.4).

80 Rural Urban 70

30 Literacy in percentage in Literacy 20

0 KP Balochistan Sindh Punjab Gilgit Baltistan Pakistan

Figure 7.4, Gilgit-Baltistan, Comparison of Literacy by Rural-Urban and regions, 2012-13

In the study area ratio of female education has rapidly increased during the last thirty five years (Figure 7.5). It is a very encouraging sign because educating a girl is educating a family. That is why not only in Gilgit-Baltistan but throughout Pakistan female literacy rate is increasing day by day. Looking towards the interest of females in education sector it is hoped that the gap between male and female literacy would be overcome in the near future.

80 Female Male Overall 70 68 64 65 64 65 58 60 57 56 52 52 50 47 44 41 39 40 40 36

30 27 Literacy in Percentage in Literacy 19 20

0 KP Balochistan Sindh Punjab Gilgit Baltistan Pakistan

Figure 7.5, Gilgit-Baltistan, Adult Literacy in percentage by Gender and its comparison with other provinces, 2012-2013

10000 7,476 4,567 2,909

1000

315 235

100 80 36.36

21 23.73 17 19.43 Log 10 Scale: in number in Scale: 10 Log 10 4

1 Boys Girls Total Male Female Total Boys Girls Total Male Female Total No of Colleges No of Teaching Staff Students Enrollment Teacher-Student Ratio

Gilgit-Baltistan Figure 7.6, Gilgit-Baltistan, numbers of Government Colleges, teaching staff, student’s enrollment and Students- Teacher Ratio, 2012-13

7.2.5 Enrollment ratio in high school and college level

The analysis reveals that the ratio of enrollment of students at intermediate and degree level is low as compared to schools. The details given below in the (Figure 7.6) shows a full picture of the student’s enrollments. If we look at the number of colleges it is twenty one in the whole region with only four colleges for girls. When I asked one of a student of Government Degree College for boys, Gilgit why he quit his education at degree level he answered, there is only one college in our district and I could not afford to go to college daily from my village far away from the college. Likewise there is only one university in the study area which cannot absorb the students from the whole region.

Figure 7.6 Gilgit-Baltistan, numbers of Government Colleges, teaching staff, student’s enrollment and Students-Teachers Ratio, 2012-13, after GOGB, 2013

The Government of Pakistan is keen to explore various opportunities of quality and professional education for the people of Gilgit-Baltistan. Before the construction of KKH, the people of Gilgit-Baltistan were deprived of higher and professional education. Immediately after the construction of KKH, development in

education sector was started in various forms. In order to fill the gap of professional education, several schemes of scholarships and quota were started for the talented students of Gilgit-Baltistan (Table 7.4). Eighty four seats for medical colleges in the four provinces and Azad Kashmir are reserved for the talented students of Gilgit- Baltistan.

In all the provinces, seats have been reserved for the students of Gilgit- Baltistan perusing professional education. Amongst the reserved seats, for the students seeking admission in medical colleges are eighty four, out of which sixty seats have been served by the Punjab province, seven by Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, six by Sindh province, one by Baluchistan province and ten by Azad Jammu & Kashmir (Table 7.4). Like medical colleges, seats are also reserved for engineering students in various engineering universities and colleges (Table 7.4).

Table 7.2 Gilgit-Baltistan, Province/State-wise distribution of reserved Seats, 2012-13

Province/State Seats Reserved Seats Reserved for Total for Medical Engineering

Punjab 60 16 76

Khyber 07 06 13 Pakhtunkhwa

Sindh 06 12 18

Baluchistan 01 02 3

AJ&K 10 10 20

Total 84 46 130

Source: Directorate of Education, Gilgit-Baltistan 2013

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7.2.6 Karakoram International University, Gilgit

Karakoram International University (KIU) was established by the Federal government of Pakistan in 2002 at Gilgit. Establishment of this university was a blessing for the students of Gilgit-Baltistan. The enrollment ration in the university is high and encouraging the authorities to invest more in its development. KIU offers BS 4 years programme in various fields, master, M.Phill and PhD level programmes have also been initiated with the help of Higher Education Commission of Pakistan. More then three thousand students both male and female are enrolled currently in different departments in this university. However like all other departments KIU is also facing some infrastructural deficiencies i.e students’ hostel for (male). There is only one female hostel on the university campus.

It is a positive step towards higher education in the study area as it was observed during the field survey during the focused group discussion with the students. Another campus of KIU is founded at Skardu facilitating the students for higher education at their doorstep (GOGB 2009). The KIU is moving in right direction according to the needs and requirements of the local population. In the future more campuses will be built in other districts of Gilgit-Baltistan.

7.2.7 Steps towards Technical Education

In the study area this highly important section of education was neglected. Recently some positive steps were taken to equip the local labor and students with technical skills that they may contribute in the socio-economic development of the area (GOGB 2008). It is a right decision at right time and requires more attention to initiate more projects and programs in various disciplines. Similarly, a local NGO- KADO has also trained women workers in handcrafts industry. The field survey together with the secondary data reveals that there is increasing trend in technical and vocational education and skills are contributing much to the socio-economic development of Gilgit-Baltistan (GOP, 2006). Majority of the technical and vocation centers are located in the district headquarters and major settlements connected to KKH. It is KKH which has enhanced accessibility and boost-up the technical and vocational education.

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7.2.8 Education and Employment

In Gilgit-Baltistan, the link between education and employment deserves special attention mainly due to limited available farmland, dominated by harsh mountain environment and it falls under arid/ semi-arid climatic region. The analysis reveals that after the establishment of Gilgit-Baltistan Assembly in 2009 more autonomy has been given to the region. Having their own secretariat many new departments have been established creating thousands of employment opportunities. Many educated people have got employment in the newly established institutions. Furthermore the educated workers of the study area working outside their region in other provinces are earning higher incomes. Such higher share of educated worker is attributed to KKH and enhancement in regional accessibility. In Gilgit-Baltistan, it is a paradigm shift in education and employment sector especially after the inception of KKH.

7.2.9 Constraints in Promoting Education

7.2.9.1 Lack of basic requirements

Providing education to its citizens is a primary responsibility of the state. In Pakistan education is free for all in government running institutions at primary and high and intermediate level. Schools and colleges are built in almost all the districts of the country. After the construction of KKH much attention was paid to build schools infrastructure in the study area. Schools are working now in the remotest parts of Gilgit-Baltistan. Running education institutions not only requires buildings but basic facilities like teachers, furniture and stationary at regular basis. Government schools all over Pakistan are lacking these facilities which are not an easy task for a government. As a result trust deficit develops in the society and people prefer to send their children to private schools.

In the study area accessibility is the main hurdle in every sector. In education it is more sensitive issue because it directly related to the most valuable asset of the society who cannot afford to walk on foot for a long distance. It badly affects the performance of a student in learning process. Although KKH has brought a revolutionary development in the education sector but still accessibility is an issue to connect the inter valley roads to KKH.

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7.2.9.2 Quality

Every society wants to give quality education to its youth to secure and prosper their future. Building infrastructure and quality in education are two different phenomenons. It requires huge investments, qualified teachers, and cooperation from parents and students as well. In the study area almost all institutions are newly established and not fully equipped with all facilities. However, tests, examinations and competitions are the yardsticks to judge the quality of education at different levels. The analysis reveals that the study area is also facing these issues of quality in the education field. At primary level the problems of reading and writing is the basic issue, but in a short period of time Gilgit-Baltistan ranks higher than Balochistan and Sindh as for as reading and writing at grade two levels is concerned (ASER, 2012). The quality of government schools all over Pakistan is not better and it lags behind the private sector. In the study area government schools are better because of less competition with private sector and strict monitoring system of education department. The last five years results of matriculation examination shows better results in government schools. Scholarships incentives have also encouraged the students to compete and improve their skills. The directorate of education is having a comprehensive data of all the schools, enrollments, teachers, facilities and above all the results at different levels (GOGB 2012). All these activities contribute towards the quality of education.

7.2.9.3 Dropout Ratio

The high dropout ratio is another setback to the efforts and investment in education sector. This issue is common all over the country especially at primary level in government schools. In the study area dropout ratio is a little high i.e. forty percent at primary level (GOGB 2015). It is obvious because of the harsh terrain and limited transport facilities. Furthermore the non-availability of teachers and other facilities discourage the students and their parents and they struck off their children from the school. In the study area dropout out ratio is low in the areas where schools are near to homes and facilitated. Recently government has taken initiatives to decrease the ratio of dropout students. For this purpose parent teacher councils have been developed and some more incentives including scholarships, prizes and computer laboratories are established at school level.

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7.2.9.4 Higher Education

In the study area there is a big gap between secondary and higher education. During the last thirty years government attention was more focused on primary, middle and high schools which were a good decision. There is now a dire need of more and more colleges both for male and females. Until now in the vast area of Gilgit-Baltistan their exist only 21 colleges which does not cover the whole population. Apart from insufficient colleges the study area has only one university. Karakoram international university is also lacking basic necessities and facing a lot of problems regarding academic and co-curricular activities. For example, no hostel facility for the male students, no playground and auditorium for co-curricular activities is not an encouraging sign for a public sector university. That is why people prefer to go outside the study area for higher studies. To stop this brain drain policy initiatives are required to give more attention now to higher education in the area.

7.3 IMPACT OF KKH ON HEALTH SECTOR

The history of health services in Gilgit-Baltistan goes back to 1939, when the Indian medical services deputed one Agency Surgeon. In 1947 there were only two small hospitals and 10 small dispensaries. In 1951 the government of Pakistan deputed an Agency Surgeon from Army Medical Corps. Although the Government tried its best to provide health facilities to the area, yet due to lack of communication with the rest of the country and also in the absence of approach road for different valleys, a vast majority of people could not get even the basic health facilities. The health condition of the people especially women and children was disappointing, but after the construction of KKH a gradual development occurred as for as health facilities is concerned (Table 7.3). The Government of Gilgit-Baltistan bears almost all the expenditures in health sector. Agha Khan Health Services Pakistan (AKHSP) is also contributing to a large extent. The health sector is still not delivering as per the local needs and demands due to lack of resources.

The analysis reveals that the population of Gilgit-Baltistan is scattered in the rocky landscape. The difficulty of infrastructure development and access for the poor people are the main hurdles which is a challenge for the government. Again the significance of accessibility for the study area is evident. Before the inception of KKH

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there was no hospital in the whole area and the inhabitants of Gilgit-Baltistan were at the mercy of Allah. Centuries old traditional health care methods were in practice. In most of the villages of the study area the traditional way of dealing the birth delivery cases is still in practice which is risky and leads to high mortality rates.

In the study area providing basic and advanced health facilities to the whole population is a challenge for the Government. This is not only the issue of Gilgit- Baltistan but almost all provinces are facing the same problems. The problems are further deteriorated by the rocky terrain and inhospitable environment. In these circumstances it is very difficult for the poor people to reach the health care units or the hospital. Although the government is striving hard to provide health facilities to every single person but limited resources is an obstacle. In health sector infrastructure development is not a big issue but its operation is a daunting task. Deficiency of doctors, nurses, medical practitioners and equipment’s is another challenge. The following table and figure shows a detail picture of health facilities in the study area. The total number of health facilities units is about five hundred but most of them are small units or non-governmental dispensaries. Only five district hospitals with limited capacity is not a positive sign. The number of basic health units (BHU) and Regional health centers (RHC) is also very low. But the comparative data of the health facilities before and after KKH period shows completely a different picture which is obvious in the table and figure below (Table 7.3).

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Table 7.3 Gilgit-Baltistan, Summary of District Wise Health Facilities

District Community District Regional Basic A- C- Maternal First FAP FAP Total Hospitals Head Health Health Class Class and Aid Const. const. (CH) Quarter Centre Unit Disp. Disp. Child Post by by Hospital (BHU) Health (FAP) Marife LG ( (DHQ) Centre Found & RHC0 (NGO) RD ( MCH)

Gilgit 2 1 1 2 3 26 06 23 0 0 64

Skardu 5 1 1 4 8 32 31 26 26 12 146

Diamer 2 1 0 3 3 15 11 21 0 0 56

Ghizer 4 1 0 1 11 4 13 18 0 5 57

Ghanche 4 1 0 3 13 20 15 16 6 5 83

Astore 3 0 0 2 2 11 04 15 0 3 40

Hunza- 4 0 0 2 6 15 10 16 0 0 53 Nagar

Total 24 5 2 17 46 123 90 135 32 25 499

Source: Directorate of Health, Gilgit-Baltistan.2013

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Figure 7.7, Gilgit-Baltistan, Distribution of Health Institutions

7.3.1 Development of Health Sector

This section explains a brief discussion on different types of health services. It discusses in detail the position of mother and child health (MCH), family planning, control of infectious diseases and food. The predominant and new diseases and efforts for its elimination are also discussed in detail. The discussion is based on the available data collected through field survey, interviews and focused group discussions. If we compare the facilities with other provinces then the study area lags behind in health sector but again the story of health sector in Gilgit-Baltistan is not too long and old. The existing facilities are all developed after the inception of KKH. A detail survey of the above mentioned diseases and facilities is needed in the study area. Research gaps need to be addressed in collaboration with the Federal Bureau of Statistics.

7.3.2 Mother and Children Health Facilities

In the study area mother and child health care situation is alarming. It is a very important segment of our society. The future of society depends upon a good health of both mother and child. A healthy mother would give birth to a healthy child and a healthy child is the future asset of the society. More efforts are needed to strengthen

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the health facilities for mother and children in the study area (Table 7.4). The following table shows a detail of Mother and child care facilities.

Table 7.4 MCH Outputs at Health Facilities

Indicators Gilgit-Baltistan Pakistan (%) (%)

Delivery Record 26 -

Monitoring Child Health 5 25

Women’s visiting gynecology clinics 43 24

Births at Hospitals or units 22 25

Family Planning facilities 19 48

Average visitors to Family Planning 26 22

Source: Directorate of Health, Gilgit-Baltistan, 2013

The analysis reveals that infant mortality rate in the study area is high as compare to other provinces of Pakistan. Inhospitable and tough environment on one side lack of basic health facilities and poverty also contribute to this great loss. One hundred twenty five per one thousand in 1998 and seventy eight per one thousand in 2012 is not a positive sign (Nazeem 2013). Most of the deaths occur during the first two months after birth. It is very high as compare to the developing nations in the world i.e. fifteen per one thousand. As mentioned above this issue should be addressed on war footings. Again it is pertinent to note here the significance of accessibility that how much it is important for the development of a society.

Infant mortality is directly related to Mother mortality rates because most of the mothers dies during delivery cases. In the study area the ratio is much high then the other parts of the country. According to 1998 census six hundred per one lakh mothers dies during delivery (GOGB 2015). It can be decreased by giving more facilities to the poor people of Gilgit-Baltistan at their doorstep. Lack of education and awareness about the complications of pregnancy, poverty and non-availability of basic health facilities all contribute to this heavy loss. Again preventing this is a

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challenge not only for the government of Gilgit-Baltistan but for the federal government too. More attention is needed to prevent this heavy losses which is also leading to affect the sex ratio of the study area i.e. one hundred and ten males for hundred females.

7.3.3 Fertility and Family Planning

The population welfare program in the study region was initiated in 2001 to facilitate the local community of Gilgit-Baltistan. The number of family planning centers has now reached to fifty. In remote villages the same work is done by the Lady Health Visitors (LHV) and Lady Health Workers (LHW). Although these LHV and LHW are working across the country and doing a good job but it requires a proper planning and monitoring system to further enhance their capacity. The government can provide more basic health facilities especially during and after pregnancy period with the help of these mobile workers. The analysis further reveals that more than seventy five percent family’s needs family planning services but only twenty five percent are getting until now (AKRSP 2012). The remaining fifty percent are deprived due to non-availability of the medicines or in accessibility.

In the study area the fertility ratio is higher than the national level i.e. 4.6 ratio 4.1. The ratio of fertility was recorded as 5.4 during 1998 census but due to the initiatives and facilitation of family planning it has shown a little bit declines in the recent surveys (Nazeem 2013). The geography of the study area and its population have inverse proportion as only 1.3 million people living in the vast area of 72, 496 sq. km. the family planning programmes does not means to stop the ratio of population but it has multiple objectives, primarily to save the life of both the mother and child and to create awareness among the families to have a gap between births.

7.3.4 Infectious Diseases

In the study area infectious diseases is spreading with the increase in population. Because of the lack of awareness and in adequate health facilities twenty five percent of death occurs due to these diseases. The infectious diseases like diarrhea and asthma are common in Gilgit-Baltistan. Again accessibility is the main obstacle because in these diseases the patients’ needs first aid and health facility as soon as possible. The harsh mountainous terrain and rough link roads create hurdles to

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reach the hospitals (Mahmood 2007). In children’s below the age of five, pneumonia is the main cause of deaths. Infrastructural development like drains for sanitation, supply of natural gas for domestic use and fully equipped hospitals are needed on priority basis in the whole region to decrease the ratio of these diseases.

In the study area Health department with the help of foreign aided organization started a project in 1998 for controlling tuberculosis and leprosy. The project was launched with 24 tuberculosis centers and a special hospital. According to the authorities of health department leprosy is fully controlled in the last fifteen years but tuberculosis is still prevailing in the study area (Cook & Butz, 2011). In some cases like tuberculosis the facilities ratio is higher than other provinces of Pakistan. The only problems facing by the centers are detecting the disease in remote villages.

The analysis reveals that an HIV aids is negligible in the study area. The ratio of hepatitis A and B and C is also very low i.e. six percent for hepatitis B and only one percent for hepatitis C (GOGB, 2012). The data is based on the available record at the hospitals or with the Directorate of Health Gilgit-Baltistan. This is not only the case of the study area but other province also lacks such kind of data as a whole on census basis. It is high time to conduct a census covering all the issues related to socio-economic development like population, agriculture, education, health, employment and trade activities. Only then a proper planning would be effective in all the sectors.

7.3.5 Non-Contagious Diseases

In the study area non-contagious diseases are also growing. Prominent among them are heart diseases, blood pressure, cancer and traumas. Almost half of the deaths occur due to these diseases. The reason for high death rate due to these diseases in the study area is obvious because of the limited resources and long distances. The patients causing these diseases need quick response and medication. In the study area it is very difficult to reach the hospital from remote villages. Another problem is the facilities for these patients which is lacking and most of the patients are referred to Rawalpindi. These kinds of diseases are common mostly in developed areas because many people while enjoying comforts leave long walks and exercise. The main reason for these diseases is avoiding exercise, smoking and unbalanced diet. The figures in the

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following table show a clear picture of the prevailing diseases in the study area (Table 7.5). In most of the cases late detection and ill-managing the disease is the main cause of deaths.

Table 7.5 Percentage of Hypertension Patients

Name 1995-1996 2012-2013

Males (%) Females (%) Males (%) Females (%)

Hypertension 13 15 42 31

Cigarette use/ environmental 22 2 27 18 tobacco Exposure

Obesity 14 13 20 23

Anxiety & depression - 33 28 46

Accidental injuries 6 3 11 5

Source: AKRSP, 2013.

7.3.6 Starvation and Nutrient deficiency

The analysis reveals that before the construction of KKH most of the poor population was facing starvation in the winter season. It was only after the inception of KKH that people of the area took a sigh of relief and they are now getting every kind of food items at their door step. The deficiency of iodine is also reduced by promoting iodized salt in the area. These nutrient deficiencies lead to different kind of diseases in the childrens. The following figure show a detail picture of the study area with comparison to the other provinces of Pakistan (Figure, 7.8). it is essential not only for government but also for the society to provide good food to their children’s because they are the future asset of the society. Overall, health outcomes are not as good as in the other provinces of the country, particularly for maternal and child health.

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Underweight Stunted Wasted 50 48

43 42 40 40 38 36 36 35 34 31 30

30 Inpercent

19 20 20

13 12 11 10 10 3

0 Punjab Sindh Khyber Balochistan Gilgit-Baltistan Pakistan Pakhtunkhwa

Figure 7.8, Child Malnutrition ratio in Gilgit-Baltistan and its comparison with other regions after National Nutrition survey 2012-13.

7.3.7 Constraints in Health Sector

The study further reveals that the local people are still facing a lot of difficulties in health sector. Although a positive change is observed after the inception of KKH but still link roads connecting the remote areas to KKH are not good enough for smooth driving. The people have to cover a lot of distances to reach district headquarter hospitals within the region. In many cases the patients could not reach to the hospital alive and die on the way. The constraints in health sector are discussed in detail in the following paragraphs.

7.3.7.1 Accessibility and Health facilities

Accessibility has a direct relationship with the socio-economic development of any society. Without accessibility any kind of development is useless. KKH was a blessing for the closed and primitive society of Gilgit-Baltistan. Providing health facilities in the harsh mountainous society is a gigantic task. The accessibility problems in the villages also make it difficult for the administration, health workers

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and even the patients to reach and take benefits. The study area has a dispersed population mostly in villages making it difficult for government and doctors to reach to each nuke and corner. A small project like polio vaccination is also costing very high for government in the remote villages (GOGB, 2015). In order to get medical facilities like surgeries, deliveries and chronic cases the people of far flung area have to travel and take appointments in advance. It is a challenging situation for both the government of Gilgit-Baltistan and the inhabitants of the area. This problem can only be solved either by providing the facilities at the doorstep which is not impossible but difficult in the current situation or by improving the quality of link roads

It was also observed during a field survey that even the government has tried its best to build a small dispensary or health unit the problem of recruiting a doctor or dispenser arises. People prefer to serve in urban areas as it is the case all over the country. A strict policy is needed in this regard to hire the services and compel them to serve at their appointed places with some incentives like extra payment and providing home facilities

The area, population and health facilities in the study area have no match. There is a huge difference between the population and health initiatives. But here the discussion is confined to a specific period i.e. to see the development of an area after the construction of KKH. If we look at that perspective then Gilgit-Baltistan and its inhabitants have gained a lot. The comparison of health facilities with other provinces also shows a good picture of the study area (GOGB, 2012). The distance between health facilities like BHU, RHC, and DH and its covering area is much higher than any region of the country and that makes a difference and problem for a common man. It is about two hundred and thirty square kilometers for BHU; three thousand five hundred square kilometers for RHC and above eight thousand square kilometers for district headquarter hospitals. The above statistics shows the importance of accessibility through highways and link roads in the study area.

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Table 7.6, Gilgit-Baltistan, Access to Health Facilities, 2011-12

Type of Health Gilgit Skardu Diamer Ghizer Ghanche Astore Total Institution

District Hospitals 3 2 1 1 1 1 9

RHC/civil hospitals 6 5 2 4 4 2 23

BHUs/dispensaries 390 70 46 42 60 20 628

Sources: Directorate of Health, 2012-13

As discussed above the accessibility to health centers is the main problem. Covering area of these health centers is very vast as compare to other provinces of Pakistan. In other provinces the covering area is twenty two square kilometers while in the study area it is hundreds and thousands of kilometers making it difficult for the people to reach in time. One of the benefits of the KKH is the growing buildup areas in the districts along this gigantic highway. Gilgit has the largest density and more health centers in public as well as private sector (AKRSP, 2012). It is therefore, necessary to focus more on quality and providing facilities at every center because health is a primary objective of every welfare state.

7.3.7.2 Limited Availability of Skilled Staff

The study area has also limited skilled man power. The reason for this deficiency is obvious as all professionals and skilled labor prefer to work in cities. In health sector this deficiency is more evident because of the limited availability of doctors as well as nurses. An average of two doctors per ten thousand people is a very big difference including all the hospitals and dispensaries. For more than three hundred and fifty health centers only one hundred and thirty eight doctors are available (Table 7.7). This issue needs serious consideration on behalf of provincial as well as federal government to recruit more doctors on priority basis by giving them special salary packages.

It was also observed during the field survey and interviews that the local qualified people prefer to work in other provinces of Pakistan. As they deem it necessary for their future career because there was no attraction until inception of China Pakistan economic corridor. Lying on the border of China the future of the 114

study area is very bright and now the educated people are coming back to their native region for better opportunities. Still the area is severely lacking skillful female workers, to some extent Agha Khan Rural Support Programme has recruited female workers in every sector but not sufficient enough to fill the gap of required workers. Female doctors are very few in number, only lady health visitors are working more efficiently everywhere in Gilgit-Baltistan.

The current situation of staff availability is not good which does not even match with other provinces. This will take some more time as the local students get medical, engineering and other professional degrees they will contribute in all the sectors. The people of the area are also aware of the fact and they are anxiously working hard to get degrees and contribute in the development of the area. For this purpose the government has initiated special scholarships in every field for the students of Gilgit-Baltistan. During the last forty years the study area has made a great progress and moving in a right direction.

Table 7.7 Human Resource Health Department of G-B

Category Posts Held Vacant Administrative Staff 34 22 12 Specialists 123 66 57 Medical Officer/Lady Medical Officers 216 138 78 Dental Officers 34 22 12 Comp. Prog, Stat. off, Nut. Officer. Dietitian, Health 22 10 12 Ins. Lab. Technologist Accounts Officer, Admin Officer, Bio medical Eng Pharmacy. /Drugs Inspector. 12 5 7 LHVs 132 111 21 Paramedics 1522 1370 152 Support Staff 1660 1504 156 Total 3755 3248 507 Source: Directorate of Health, Gilgit-Baltistan. 2013

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7.3.7.3 Female Human Resources Development in Health Sector

In the study area female human resource in health sector are mostly lady health visitors. They are working hard in the remote areas providing basic health facility to the poor people at their doorstep. These LHV with their efficiency and good behavior are not only filling the gap of other staff but also encourage the other educated females to come forward and contribute in the socio-economic development of their society (Nazeem, 2013). The successful work done by these LHV requires acknowledgments at social as well as government level. The Government of Gilgit- Baltistan can utilize these LHV for multi purposes by giving them training and incentives. Due to their hard work people of the study area are now familiar with the family planning programme and more improvements are observed in Child and Mother Health issues

Pakistan Army played a vital role in connecting the isolated area of Gilgit- Baltistan to the rest of Pakistan. After the construction of KKH they are playing an active role in the socio-economic development of the area. After the Government of Gilgit-Baltistan it is the largest supplier of health facilities in the study area. The army medical corps is playing a great role in health sector along with other non- governmental organizations. Like army mobile units the Government sector should also initiate small mobile medical units which would a better option especially in this hard area of Gilgit-Baltistan.

7.4 The Role of National and international NGOs in Educational and Health development

As discussed above in this chapter education and health are the two basic indicators of socio-economic development. The inhabitants of Gilgit-Baltistan were facing a lot of difficulties with regard to education and health facilities. After the inception of KKH, Government of Pakistan, as well as national and international NGOs focused their attention on these sectors. The Aga Khan Development Network (AKDN) which includes, AKRSP, AKESP and AKHSP have contributed a lot to improve human development in the study area. The progress towards human development is manifested by significant reduction in infant and maternal mortality rates, increased primary education completion rates and rising investment in female education. The

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Aga Khan University of Education (Female) in Gilgit, Aga Khan Higher Secondary Schools and Aga Khan Hospitals are the best examples.

7.5 CONCLUSION

Education and health are the core indicators of socio-economic development. Prior to the construction of KKH both education and health were an immaterial sectors in Gilgit-Baltistan. Majority of population were facing difficulties as for as education and health is concerned. The construction of KKH has brought a revolutionary change in education and health. The number of Schools, Colleges and Hospitals increased in the past two decades.

The analysis reveals that the study area has enormous potential of development in education sector. The statistics mentioned earlier in this chapter shows a very positive picture of educational development in the area. In a very short period much has been achieved but still requires more efforts as education is an endless journey. During the last three decades focus was on infrastructural development which is done quite remarkably. Now the circumstances suggest that human resource should be developed in the area to provide social services. For this purpose it is necessary to give more trainings and employments to the local educated people. After 2009 Gilgit-Baltistan self-governance act a positive change was observed in all sectors. Establishment of new departments has opened the doors of a lot of opportunities for the qualified local young generation.

In the health sector a lot of improvement was observed. As the local people said we were not use to these kinds of health facilities before KKH. It is like a sacred cow for us, because a new history of education and health sector started after the inception of KKH. Like education health is also an important sector and cannot be ignored. Better and long term policies are required to improve the health sector of Gilgit-Baltistan. Human resource development is the key issue of heath sector as the ratio of Doctors is very low and only LHV are working efficiently also filling the gap of doctors. Human resource development can only be improved in health sector by giving more incentives and job securities to doctors as well nurses. The ratio of big hospitals is also very low which needs to be at least two in every district in the current situation.

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CHAPTER -8 IMPACT OF KKH ON TRADE AND TOURISM

8.1 INTRODUCTION

This chapter focuses on the impact of KKH on trade and tourism development in Gilgit-Baltistan. The chapter is divided into four sections. Section one deals with the introduction of trade and tourism in Gilgit-Baltistan. Section two analyses the extent of trade before and after the construction of KKH. Section three highlights the tourism industry in Gilgit-Baltistan with special reference to pre and post KKH. The chapter is concluded in the final section.

8.2 IMPACT OF KKH ON TRADE

In Gilgit-Baltistan, KKH has brought revolutionary changes in accessibility and connecting remote areas. It has also enhanced trade and transportation services. In the past, yaks, mules and horses were used as a beast of burden. With passage of time, they were replaced by vehicles for transportation of trade goods. In the entire Gilgit- Baltistan, Gilgit were the regional capital and there were few shops in Gilgit city. However, after the construction of KKH, a number of shopping centers and multi- story plazas have been constructed. The data reveals that after the construction of KKH the number of shops has increased from dozens to thousands, where large number of tourists comes for shopping.

The analysis revealed that after the construction of KKH, a steady increase in the trade has been noted. This has helped in exploiting the local resources and largely promoted the living standards of the people of the area. The construction of KKH has helped in building trade relationship with Peoples Republic of China via land route (KKH). The volume of the trade has increased several folds. Because of the trade relationship with China and likely with Central Asian Republics via KKH, the Gilgit city is becoming an international trade center (Khan, 2013). The year-wise Customs revenue earned by Pakistan at Sost Check Post indicates that there is increasing trend in revenue generation (Table 8.1).

The Table 8.1 further shows that the barter/border trade via Khunjerab Pass during 1995-2000 has increased at 16.10%, annually. The main export items consists

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of dry fruits, cigarettes, blades, milk packs etc., while the import items included cloths, toys, decoration pieces, dinner sets, carpets etc. (Table 8.1). After the Atta Abad Lake incident during the up gradation process of KKH in 2010 the barter /border trade decreased. On November 8, 2014 Pakistan and China signed a historic agreement to build China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) for boosting economic relations with regional connectivity. Gilgit-Baltistan holds a vital position in CPEC, connecting both the countries via Khunjerab pass.

Table 8.1 Tax Collection at Custom Check Post Sost, 2001(millions)

Year Revenue earned Increase/decrease (%)

1995-96 24.699 -

1996-97 44.979 20%

1997-98 58.942 15%

1998-99 79.365 21%

1999-2000 105.267 26%

Average annual increase (%) 16.10 %

Source: GoGB, 2013

8.2.1 Northern Areas Traders Cooperative Limited (NATCL)

The NATCL was established in 1969 with a view to promote trade with China. It is a semi-government institution. The paid-up capital of the institution is Rs.20 million. This institution has done a good job in promoting trade relationship with People Republic of China. The nature of trade is barter. The corporation is earning a handsome amount as a profit and is distributing among the shareholders (Table 8.2).

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Table 8.2, NATCL, payments paid to Share-holders

Year Rate (%) Amount distributed in shareholders (in millions) 1988-90 40 2.933 1991-94 28 2.702 1995-97 20 5.320 2000-02 20 5.065 Source: NATCL GILGIT, 2002

In Gilgit-Baltistan, prior to the construction of KKH, trade relationship between the two countries was existed through the NATCL. In this regard, the first agreement was signed in October, 1967 and actual trade was started in 1969. The trade agreement between China and Pakistan is being reviewed and renewed on yearly basis under the arrangements of Ministry of Commerce and the Gilgit-Baltistan administration and the Chinese authorities. The detail of year-wise ceiling since 1969 to 1999 is given in Table 8.3.

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Table 8.3 Year-wise Ceiling Before and After the Construction of KKH

S .No. Year Ceiling in S. No. Year Ceiling in Millions Millions Before the Construction of KKH 1 1969 0.240 2 1970 0.268 3 1971 0.450 4 1972 1.000 5 1973 1.250 6 1974 1.400 7 1975 2.500 8 1976 3.000 9 1977 3.050 10 1978 3.200

11 1979 3.400 12 1980 3.600

After the Construction of KKH 13 1981 3.900 14 1982 4.100 15 1983 4.300 16 1984 4.500 17 1985 5.000 18 1986 5.500 19 1987 40.000 20 1988 40.000 21 1989 60.000 22 1990 60.000 23 1991 100.000 24 1992 100.000 25 1993 100.000 26 1994 100.000 27 1995 200.000 28 1996 200.000 29 1997 200.000 30 1998 200.000 31 1999 200.000 32 2000 200.000 Source: NATCL GILGIT, 2002

The details of export and import between Pakistan and China under the barter trade agreement have been listed. According to custom office Sost (2013) major exports of Pakistan includes dry Fruits, cigarette, treat blades, fresh fruit, cloths, shoes, milk packs, sweets, crystal marble and quartz (Stone). However, major imports from China includes generators, dinner sets, agricultural tools, LPG, machinery, cotton, carpets, furniture, fresh fruits, engine parts and stationary items.

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8.2.2 Trade with other provinces of the Country

During the Pre KKH period, although trade relationship of Gilgit-Baltistan was existed with the surrounding areas of Pakistan, yet the volume of trade was negligible. Nevertheless, the construction of a jeep able road through Babusar pass has helped in linking this cut-off area with rest of the country. However, this road could not insert any tangible impact on the trade pattern of the area as this road was jeep able and could opened each for three months (July-September). Opening of KKH for traffic has led to establishing trade relationship with the rest of the Country especially with Rawalpindi. It has also helped in bringing the local products in the market of Gilgit-Baltistan. The export of local products to other parts of the country is also increasing. The analysis reveals that the volume of trade has increased tremendously as compared to pre KKH era and expected to further increase in future.

The volume of in-coming and out-going trade can be predicted from the incomes earned by the Municipal Committees and District Councils of Gilgit- Baltistan. The data indicate that in Gilgit-Baltistan, in 1993-94 the income of seven district councils was Rs.5.640 million, which was increased to Rs.13.832 million in 1997-98 and further enhanced to 20.703 million in 2008-10 (Gojali, 2010) showing an average annual increase of 30%. It reveals that average annual increase of the income of District Councils on exports are much higher (30%) as compared to the average annual increase of the incomes of Municipal Committee on imports (14%). It clearly indicates that although both the in-coming and out-going trade are increasing year by year, yet the volume of exports items is more rapid as compared to imports.

8.2.3 Trade and tourism potential

The study area is having a great potential for trade and tourism but has not been accurately utilized until now. The region is not only the junction point of three great mountainous ranges i.e. Himalaya, Karakoram and Hindu Kush but also the linking China, South Asian and Central Asian states (Khan, 2013). The study area provides a shortest linkage for the development and success of new ideas like CAREC, OBOR and CPEC. In this perspective china has initiated the infrastructural development plan with a huge investment. A major portion of KKH from Kashghar to Gilgit is recently upgraded to make it all weather roads for trade and tourism

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development in the region (Anwar, 2011). The impact of KKH is evident from these new ideas of connecting not only the regional states but also the continents of Asia, Europe and Africa. The annual closure of KKH for 3 months due to heavy snowfall is the main hurdle, to make it all weather roads, top priority has been given to resolve this issue under the CPEC (Altaf, 2016). In the near future it will become one of the largest trade routes in the world.

The analysis reveals that despite the above mentioned facts the study area is not properly utilized until now. One of the reasons for this is the vast mountainous area having small population ratio. Population development trends are much high where development takes place. When basic facilities like food, education, health and employment are available the density of population of that area is also high. It is evident from the development of Sost area in Gilgit-Baltistan. Local people are investing and moving to Sost for trade activities where new developments are taking place under CPEC. It was also predicted by the analysts at the time of construction of KKH that it cannot be materialized but time and commitment proved it wrong. The study area is presenting a much better picture of development than it was before the construction of KKH. Especially the districts along KKH are presenting positive impacts and their density of population is also growing. It is suggested that government must focus on long term policies to utilize the enormous potential of the area in trade and tourism. Building planned housing schemes and development of tourist resorts are one the key areas in this regard.

8.2.4 Trade development of Gilgit-Baltistan

The study reveals that although the KKH was built to connect china and Pakistan through land route for multi purposes, it has not been fully utilized until now. The study area is also lagging behind in terms of trade development. The Pakistan- China trade through land route is very limited i.e. only four percent worth three billion Pakistani rupees (Husain, 2016). Most of the trade activities are done through the sea ports of Karachi. That is why the trade activities in Gilgit-Baltistan are low. The up gradation of KKH and the China policy of global connectivity through Rail, Roads and Sea routes have made the study area a flash point. The people of the area are aware of this fact and striving hard to get maximum benefits of this opportunity in trade and tourism.

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The study further reveals that trade activities through KKH was low during the past few years. It was because of two reasons i.e. up gradation of KKH and Atta Abad lake incident. The up gradation of KKH was started in 2008 with the help of China funding five billion dollars. During the work process an incident occurred in February 2010 at Atta Abad (Hunza District) due to heavy land sliding creating a lake in the river. The road link remained cut off till 2015 unless five tunnels were built at the bank of the lake to get rid of land sliding and connecting the KKH again. Another reason was the Chinese under developed area of Xinxiang. During the last two decades the Chinese are highly concerned about the development of their vast territory of Xinxiang. In this regard they implemented their go west policy and now they are looking towards south under CPEC. The trade development of the study area heavily depends upon the trade through Pakistan- China border at Khunjerab. The inhabitants and businessman of the area are working hard to start developing their trade activities and the development of Sost dry port is its better example.

The study further reveals that the impact of trade is not very good until now but the potential exists. The local production of the study area is also not that much high to meet the requirements of the heavy populations. The long distance between Gilgit-Baltistan and Kashghar (eight hundred kilometers) with limited population along the highway is also one of the reasons of minimum trade activities.

The study area lying on the Pakistan- China border has a great advantage to receive the Chinese imports. Gilgit is going to be a big market of Chinese imports items. Businessmen from other provinces are investing in different areas creating more employment opportunities (Ghazali, 2010). In the urban areas women’s are also working in every department which is a great sign of development. Further planning is required to accommodate the upcoming trade activities and flow of more tourists after the successful completion and running of CPEC.

The trade volume between Pakistan and China through land route via KKH dropped during the years 2008 to 2015. It was due to a huge landslide creating a lake at Atta Abad, where KKH link was cut off for more than 4 years. Thanks to Frontier Works Organization (FWO) and China Roads and Bridges Corporation (CRBC) who worked day and night to make it available for traffic in September, 2014 (Jan, 2015).

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It is hoped that the signing of the free trade agreement (FTA) between Pakistan and China and beginning economic activities through CPEC would expand trade to neighboring Central Asian Republics. This will help in further development of the study area.

8.2.5 Repercussions of trade deficit

The study area until now is experiencing a limited trade activities. Business activities flourish in large populations, while the study area is having a very small population scattered in remote villages. Accessibility and distances to big markets is another big hurdle for the trade deficit which was partially resolved after the construction of KKH but still the inter valley roads connecting KKH are in dreadful condition. The recent development through CPEC has created a new hope and space for the trade development of Gilgit-Baltistan. The local and migrated businessmen are very optimistic about the future developments.

One of the reasons for low trade in the study area is the centuries old agrarian dependent economy. So culturally there was no business class in the area that is why they are inexperience in this field. It was only after the construction of KKH that much of the business activities started in the region but only fulfilling the local requirements. Proper utilization and trade of the local fruits and vegetables was not existed till early 1990,s. even today many of the good quality fruits and vegetables go as wasted due to either unawareness or lack of resources to preserve and managed it properly (Sökefeld, 2014). The enormous potential of the vast territory can only be utilized with viable and long term sustainable development planning. The study also has a potential to become a trade hub for central Asian markets. The inexperience local people have created a space for businessmen from other provinces of Pakistan. It is also a good sign to share experience and train the local people but it will take some time.

8.2.6 Transportation Problems

The study further reveals KKH is the shortest land route connecting Pakistan and China. The distance between Islamabad (Pakistan) and Kashghar (China) is Thirteen hundred and fifty kilometers (1350 Km) via KKH. Although the distance seems very short as compare to sea route that is more than ten thousand kilometers

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(10,000 km) but due to the harsh mountainous terrain the transportation issue remains an obstacle. KKH after its inception proved itself benevolent for the study area but trade with China through this route was trivial. The reason for this tiny trade activities stem from the under developed area of Xingjian. The industrial cities of China were far away from Pakistan- China border mostly to the south and eastern coastal area. It was only after their policy to develop western region of Xingjian and the ideas of OBOR and CPEC that they became more serious in up gradation of KKH and Gawadar port. The transportation problems would be solved after the permanent flow of trade activities on KKH. The government of Pakistan can follow the model of development in Gilgit-Baltistan as China adopted for its vast territory of Xingjian.

China has very successfully developed their western region during the last two decades. On Pakistan side the development of Gilgit-Baltistan is also in progress and the area is having enormous potential. The transportation problems are now resolved and many private companies has started transport service. The Sost dry port is also developing and many issues of the past have been resolved. After the completion of five tunnels at Atta Abad lake movement on KKH has become very easy and viable for the heavy containers (Figure 8.1).

Distance for Chinese consignments via land and Sea route

Figure 8.1 Modified after Dawn, 2015

Total cost, invested on KKH has a direct relevance with its catchment area. This is why all of China’s export through Sost originates in the Xingjian Province

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(China) bordering Gilgit-Baltistan (Pakistan). The exports are carried away towards south mainly to Rawalpindi (Pakistan) through KKH. The significance of this highway is evident from the above mentioned figure. It is the sole connectivity line between Pakistan and China. It is therefore an opportunity for the study area to get maximum benefits from the Chinese investments. During the last five years the study area has shown a great progress in domestic trade and local market development.

8.2.7 Trade Facilitation at Sost Dry Port

In the study area Sost is the last settled area about fifty kilometers near Pakistan- China border at Khunjerab. A Dry Port was established during the years 1999 to 2002 with the help of local community of Hunza, Federal Government of Pakistan and Chinese Transport Company (Ali, 2013). The main objective of this dry port was to enhance trade relations with Xingjian region of China via KKH. Due to insignificant trade activities via land route and Atta Abad Lake incident the Sost dry port remained unattractive until 2015. After its inception till 2010 the dry port was in appalling condition with little facilities for the visitors and transporters. The China vision of global connectivity through Rail, Roads and Sea routes has dramatically changed the whole scenario. The Sost dry port is now becoming an international trade facilitation Centre. A four star Pakistan Tourism Development Corporation Hotel has been established and many more private Hotels and restaurants are under construction. This shows the success of Pakistan- China connectivity vision. The flow of Chinese containers is also getting momentum which is a positive sign not only for Pakistan- China land route trade but for the development of Gilgit-Baltistan too. The dry port has enough capacity to facilitate more trucks and containers then the existing level. Furthermore new employment and business opportunities will come to the area and its inhabitant’s in the near future after flow of trade under CPEC.

8.2.9 Constraints in trade between Gilgit-Baltistan and Xingjian

The study area is located on the border of Pakistan and China. Historically the inhabitants of both the areas have close relations. It is also evident from the rock carving at different mountains in Gilgit-Baltistan. The area up to Hunza valley was under control of China till 1963 Pakistan- China boundary agreement. Harsh

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mountainous terrain and scarcity of population on both sides were the main hurdles in the trade deficit in the past. After the construction of KKH both the area gets connected and the people of Gilgit-Baltistan were given more concessions as compare to other provinces of Pakistan. The people of Gilgit-Baltistan were exempted from visa restrictions. Although minimum but trade started and the isolation of the study area comes to an end. A new wave of socio-economic development begins in the region. At that time China was also going through transition period as for as economic development is concerned. The western region of Xingjian was not that much different from Gilgit-Baltistan. In 2001 few months earlier than 9/11 incident Pakistan and China signed an agreement to build a sea port at Gawadar. After the 9/11 incident in New York (USA) and its repercussions in this region China also get alarmed and restrict its border movements. A dry port was established at Sost (Pakistan) controlling the trade activities in 2002. KKH expansion project was started in 2008 going slowly and gradually towards the announcement of CPEC in 2014. Many obstacles have been removed and the people of study area are looking forward for their bright future.

Table 8.4 Imports from China via Land and Sea Routes, 2007-08 (millions)

Import Customs Customs Sales Sales Tax/ Income Values Duties Duties/ Taxes Import Tax % Import Value % Values % Gilgit- 4,108.5 592,7 15.8% 188.6 7% 86.8 Baltistan Sea Ports 56,322.0 7,104,0 12.3% 6,205.0 10% 95.3 Total 74,250.0 7,203,0 12.0% 6,678.0 10% 95.6 Imports Source: Federal Board of Revenue, Islamabad 2013

Many of the analysts are still eyeing KKH as the bottle neck to the trade development between Pakistan and China. They are of the view that land sliding areas are the big hurdles which stops the whole movement on the highway for days. This is true but Pakistan and China is aware of it and they are resolving this issue by constructing open cut tunnels in the land slide areas (Ali, 2013). Another issue is the 128

custom clearance at Sost dry port which will be resolved bilaterally when the flow of trade gets momentum.

Another key issue is the Pakistani exports to China. It is a matter of high concern for both the businessmen and government of Pakistan to look forward and make solid policies for export items. The business community should look beyond China to the Central Asian Republics which is a potential market to many Pakistani goods. The following table shows exports and imports between Pakistan, China and Central Asian Republics (Table, 8.5).

Table 8.5 Trade Balance between Pakistan, China and Central Asian Republics (2012)

Key Items Exports Imports destination

Medicinal plants, N.A N.A N.A pine nuts from Pakistan Chilghoza, Apricots, cherry, Apple, barley, potatoes, peas, tomato, onion

Minerals, paper, Carpets, tomato, Food items, Pakistan,Ukrain textiles, building apple, grapes, cotton, Building materials, e,Uzbekistan, China machinery, coal, wool, maize, sugar fertilizers, steel Kyrgyzstan, cotton, sugar etc. pears products Russia

Wheat, barley, meat, Footwear, garments, Machinery, oil, Russia, wool, metallurgy, grain, metallurgy, gas, processed Ukraine, Kazakhstan textiles, machines, coal, gas and oil food, beverages, Uzbekistan, petrochemicals. ferrous metallurgy. Kyrgyzstan, China, Germany, Sweden, Switzerland.

Tobacco, livestock, Agro-machinery, Oil, gas, wheat, China, Ukraine, wool, metallurgy, wool, tobacco processed food, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan agro-processing, products. machinery, Russia, electronics, textiles, chemicals, light Bulgaria, sugar. industrial products. Germany, Uzbekistan

Cotton, fruits, Cotton, gold, gas, Machinery, oil, Russia, vegetables, textiles, fertilizers, light gas, chemicals. Ukraine, Uzbekistan cotton harvesters, industrial goods. Kazakhstan, textile machinery, Kyrgyzstan, metallurgy. Switzerland, south Korea, Turkey, China. Sources: Gilgit Baltistan Private Sector Development Report 2013.

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The above table indicates that the balance of trade between Pakistan, China and Central Asian Republics is very low. The reason for these low trade activities is the Russian influence in Central Asia and the inhospitable terrain. Furthermore after the 9/11, 2001 incident the growing security issues in the region deteriorated the situation. The establishment of Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) was a great step towards regional integration. China and Russia came close to each other and Central Asian Republics started trade activities with China with both sides getting a lot of benefits from each other (Zaidi, 2011). Pakistan has also got a permanent membership of SCO. Central Asian Republics has the world largest reserves of oil and gas. China and Russia are the only primary beneficiaries of these reserves through pipelines. Pakistan has also signed a gas pipeline agreement originating from Turkmenistan to Afghanistan, Pakistan and India (TAPI). The security issues and strain relations between Afghanistan, Pakistan and India are the main obstacles in materializing this pipeline dream. Geographically Pakistan is located in a very strategic location. It provides a shortest land route to the Arabian Sea. China through its policy of global connectivity has started investment in Pakistan. The government of Pakistan considers it as a game changer that will open new vistas of trade and development.

8.2.10 Financial Problems

The study area in financial matters is fully dependent on the federal government of Pakistan. This dependency and limited trade activities creates financial problems not only for the government of gilgit-baltistan but also for the local business community. The revenue collection at sost and kohistan district of khyber pakhtunkhwa province is hindering the local trade activities. Many small businessmen of the study area are of the view that in order to flourish trade in the region it may be declared a tax free zone for some time. It is not a bad idea; many countries practice this for promoting trade activities. The remoteness and scattered population gives them an anomaly to be treated differently.

Natural resources are gifts of nature to the human beings. Pakistan is blessed with abundance of natural resources in the shape of agricultural products, water, fruits and forests and mineral resources. The study area is also blessed with enormous natural resources. The local people can get benefits by promoting the local products of

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fruits like Apple, cherry, Apricot, walnut etc. The local handicrafts and gemstones are also very popular worldwide. The only deficiency is to streamline these potential abilities. Like other provinces the local government of the study area must emphasize on their strengths i.e. local handicrafts production and local fruits production. A strong working policy on these grounds would bear very good results for the trade development of the area.

8.3. EXPLORATION OF OTHER RESOURCES

The construction of KKH has helped Government to exploit region’s development potentials in various sectors. As already states, Diamir district is rich in forests whereas other districts have nominal forests. Opening of KKH has helped to utilize these forests properly. These forests generate revenue for government as well as the owners of the forests. In 1995-96, the Government has earned Rs.41.400 million as royalty of these forests. Keeping in view the forests resources of Diamir District, the Government has established a wood work training-cum-production centre at Chilas (Diamir District) at a cost of Rs.1.757 million. This centre will help in producing skilled personnel as well as revenue for the Government (sabzali 2013).The construction of KKH as well as a network of roads in the entire area has helped in developing forest nurseries. The Government has so far established 14 forest nurseries over an area of 21 hectares and 50 forests plantations over 4000 hectares. There is much scope for its enhancements/improvements.

Gilgit-Baltistan is rich in mineral resources. Various geologists have reported a variety of metallic and non-metallic mineral showings in the area. The metallic minerals include copper, iron, nickel, cobalt, lead, antimony, zinc, arsenic, gold and tungsten. Notable among the nonmetallic are clays, feldspar, mica soap stone, marble, gems, graphite and asbestos. Gilgit-Baltistan Govt: is currently undertaking a mineral survey project with the collaboration of Pakistan Mineral Development Corporation (PMDC). Its first phase was co-financed by an Australian agency AIDAB. As a result of integrated drainage sampling, literature research, use of aerial photo and satellite images, a total of 107 panned concentrate and 62 minus 80 mesh anomalies for gold have been delineated in addition to over 1000 prosper mineralized areas for gold and other base metals (Ikram, 2013). The data collected in stage of techno-economic evaluation for delineation of prosper areas for gold and base metals which would be

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of interest to and International mining investors. It is estimated that around Rs.700.000 million of gems stones are being exploited annually from the area.

Opening of KKH and resultantly inflow of tourists scale has helped in promoting the local handicrafts and antique tourists take much interest in locally made handicrafts and this has also helped in easing in the economic condition of population to some extent. Small scale industry is widely recognized as instrument especially for the less developed areas for economic and balanced sectorial development. The sector being a labor needs smaller amounts of capital, generates greater opportunities and gives quick returns (Hadi, 2013).

Local raw material and manufacturing includes wool scouring, fruit processing and caning unit, cookies, engineering work shop, marble processing unit, furniture making, hotels and motels, dry cleaning unit, crushing unit and construction material manufacturing units like cement blocks are now coming up. A study undertaken by the M/S Financial and Management Services (Pvt) Limited for Pakistan Banking Council shows following investment potential in the area:

i). Agro based Industry. - Apricot Dehydration

- Dairy Farming

- Fruit Processing

- Honey

- Leather Tanning

- Oil Extraction

- Poultry Hitcher/Farm

- Sericulture

- Vegetable Seeds

- Wool Scouring and Baling

- Wool Spinning

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- Furniture

- Medical Herbs

- Saw Mill

- Wooden Crates

iii). Minerals. - Gemstones

- Marble

iv). Water Resources. - Hydroelectricity

- Mineral Water

v). Other Manufacturing - Agricultural Hand tools

- Footwear

- Handicrafts

- Light Engineering Workshops

- Plastic Ware

- Steel Furniture

vi). Tourism and Services. - Auto Workshops

- Hotel/Motel

- Service Stations

- Tours apparatus

- Transport Project

A large number of investors are taking interest for investing in the above sectors. Building of the KKH has helped in improving the social condition of the area and made it possible to improve the coverage of health and educational facilities. The Government now with the help of World Bank assistance is able to implement two mega projects in Health and Education sectors at a total cost of Rs.1.496 billion which was completed in 2002 (Khan, 2013). Further explanation needed to present the current status. The AKRSP, an internationally recognized Ngo also started to work

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from 1982. The social and physical infrastructure created by this NGO up to 1997 are summarized and given at Annexure-IV its recent report of 2012 is also available and should be included. Moreover, some other NGOs like Maraafie Trust, Jabir Bin Hayan Trust and Jafaria trust are also working in education sector zealously.

The literacy ratio which was very low has now reached to about 20% (30% male and 5% female). Although this ratio is abysmally poor as compared to the rest of the country yet it is a great improvement as compared to pre-KKH era. The number of school going children actually enrolled in 1995-96 is approximately 60% which is encouraging and much improvement over the status of prior to 1978.

Mining & Industrial Consultants in 1991 undertook a feasibility study on behalf of Regional Development Finance Corporation to explore the possibility of setting up of a Mini Cement Plant in Gilgit-Baltistan. According to this feasibility study, a mini cement plant with an annual production capacity of 54,000 metric ton Port land cement is feasible at Thalichi (situated along KKH) in Diamir District. The limestone, marble and clay reserves, the basic raw material of cement, are estimated to be around 35.000 million metric tons and 25,000 million metric tons respectively. The cement grade stone and clay deposits of Thalechi area are estimated to be around 4.000 million metric tons and 2.7000 metric tons respectively.

8.4 HYDEL POWER GENERATION

Gilgit-Baltistan by virtue of its mountainous topography, meteorology and hydrology are blessed with tremendous hydropower potential. Thus marvelous investment opportunities are available for public/private sector in hydropower generation sector. Few large attractive hydroelectric sites identified in Gilgit- Baltistan, by WAPDA are as under:

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Table 8.6 Important hydro-electric sites in Gilgit-Baltistan

Sites River Capacity (MW) Tungas (Skardu) Indus 625 Yulbo (Skardu) Indus 710 Bunji (Gilgit) Indus 1290 Kanch (Gilgit) Gilgit 122 Sher Qila (Ghizer) Gilgit 88 Raikot (Diamir) Indus 4500 Total 7335 Source: Inventory and ranking of hydropower scheme by Meco, November, 1984.

The medium and small hydel schemes identified by WAPDA in GB, on Tributaries of Indus River constitute a total generating capacity 277.40 MW. Details are as under: Table 8.7 Details of Feasible Scheme for Hydro-electric Generation

Region No. of Schemes Capacity (MW)

Gilgit 14 56.56

Hunza 10 64.93

Ishkoman 12 25.83

Yasin 11 15.52

Skardu 11 38.27

Rondu/Harmosh 4 41.41

Kharmang 11 12.21

Khunjerab 6 2.87

Ghizar 8 19.80

Total: 87 277.40

Source: GOGB, 2009

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The pre-KKH trade was nominal. The construction of KKH has made boosts to trade. Yaks and horses were replaced by vehicles of various categories for transportation of trade goods. Before the construction of KKH, there were a few dozen shops in Gilgit and Skardu. Now after the opening of KKH, a number of shopping centres/plazas have been constructed. The number of shops have increased from dozens to thousands where a large number of tourists comes for shopping (Ishaq, 1990).

Building of KKH has resulted a steady development of the trade of the area. This has helped in exploiting the local resources and to promote the living standard of the people of the area. To outline the real impact of KKH on trade, this topic has to be divided into two sub topics i.e.

(a) Barter/Border Trade with Peoples Republic of China

(b) Trade with the rest of the country.

(a) Barter/border trade with China

The construction of KKH has helped in building trade relationship with the friendly country of People Republic of China, via land route (KKH). The volume of the trade is continuously increasing. Because of the trade relationship with China and likely with the newly independent Central Asian Countries via KKH, the Gilgit city is becoming as an International trade centre in the near future (Ayub, 2013). The year- wise Customs revenue earned by Pakistan at Sust Check Post are as follows:

This table shows that the barter/border trade via Khunjerab Pass during 1991- 97 has increased at the @ 72.73% annually. The main exportable items consists of dry fruits, cigarettes, treat blades, milk pak etc and the importable items consist of cloths, silk cloths, toys, decoration pieces, dinner sets, carpet etc. The year-wise total number of in-coming and out-going Passengers travelled via Khunjerab Pass have been tabulated as follows

Northern Areas Traders Cooperative Limited (NATCL).

The NATCL was established in 1969 with a view to promote trade with China. It is a semi-government institution. The paid-up capital of the Institution is Rs.20 million. This institution has done a good job in promoting trade relationship with

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People Republic of China. The nature of trade is barter. The corporation is earning a handsome amount as a profit and is distributing among the shareholder as dividends.

Details have been given in the following table:

Table 8.8 Details of dividends paid to Share-holders by NATCL

Year Rate Total Amount distributed among the share holders

1988-89 40% Rs.2,933,742/-

1989-90 42% Rs.3,211,446/-

1990-91 30% Rs.3,148,405/-

1991-92 28% Rs.2,702,689/-

1992-93 22% Rs.4,086,480/-

1993-94 26% Rs.4,296,628/-

1994-95 20% Rs.6,222,866/-

1995-96 20% Rs.5,320,220/-

1996-97 20% Rs.5,065,280/-

Source: NATCL GILGIT, 1998.

Trade relationship between the two countries was existed prior to the opening of KKH, through the NATCL. In this regard The first agreement was signed in October, 1967. In accordance with this agreement, the first programme for the exchange of commodities was signed at Kashgar (China) on November 17, 1968 and the actual trade was conducted in the year 1969. The trade agreement between the two countries is being reviewed and renewed on yearly basis i.e. one year in Xinjiang (China) and the next year at Gilgit (Pakistan) under the arrangements of Ministry of Commerce and the Gilgit-Baltistan administration and the Chinese authorities. The details of year-wise ceiling fixed since the year 1969 is as under:

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From the above table it reveals that after opening of KKH, the trade volume has been increased by 150% as compared to 1978. Graphical presentation of the same is as follows:

8.5 IMPACT OF KKH ON TOURISM

Gilgit-Baltistan has a great potential of tourism. The area is considered as a paradise on earth for adventure tourists and mountaineers. Before the construction of KKH, the number of mountaineers who visited Gilgit-Baltistan to see the important peaks was small in number. The construction of KKH has helped developing tourism sector to a large extent. Gilgit-Baltistan, the junction of the three great mountain ranges of the world, is a delight for the tourists, the trekkers, the mountaineers and the wild-life enthusiasts. The scenic beauty of the area and the lofty peaks has immense attractions for a large number of tourists each year (Baloch, 2004). The KKH and other inter-valley link roads have made all tourist spots accessible. The number of tracking groups in the open zones is also gradually increasing rapidly. The Government issues permits for mountaineers to conquer various peaks and trekking in the area.

The study area is blessed with gorgeous scenery and vast territory providing a lot of tourist resorts for the visitors. As tourism is becoming an industry and many countries are developing artificial resorts to attract domestic as well as international tourists. Gilgit-Baltistan is blessed with many scenic natural tourist resorts (GOGB, 2009). However, the increasing security risk after 9/11 the international arrivals, adventure tourists, and even domestic tourism sector suffered. In this regards, efforts have been made to increase the tourism significance to Gilgit-Baltistan. This sector also needs to advertise in international market, attracting more inland and domestic tourists.

The inflow of tourists in the area has helped in generating employment opportunities to the people of the area in tourism industry including hoteling, handicrafts, transport and construction. A large number of hotels throughout the area have been built. Besides this, the Pakistan Tourism Development Corporation (PTDC) has established motels at Gilgit, Skardu, Karimabad Hunza and Sost. Local Administration has also constructed Rest Houses at various scenic places in the entire

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area of Gilgit-Baltistan covering almost all the touristic spots. Looking to its large number of hotels/motels at various tourist attraction sites are under constructions. Gilgit-Baltistan has more than 60 peaks of over 20,000 feet including the World’s second highest peak the K-2. The area possesses splendid scenic beauty. Some of the beautiful spots/valleys and lakes which attract the tourists are: Hunza valley, Naltar valley, Astore valley, Shigar valley, Khaplu valley, Deosai plain and Nagar valley. These valleys have numerous beautiful lakes which attract tourists (Table 8.9).

Table 8.9, Gilgit-Baltistan, important Lakes, 2013

Name of Lake Locality District

Shandur Shandur top Ghizer

Phandar Gupis Ghizer

Khalti Gupis Ghizer

Qarumbar Ishkoman Ghizer

Gasho Sai Gilgit

Rama Astore Diamir

Sheosak Deosai Skardu

Sadpara Skardu Skardu

Kachura Skardu Skardu

Jarbatso Shigar Skardu

Kharfak Khaplu Ghanche

Ghanche Khaplu Ghanche

Source: Gilgit-Baltistan, Department of Tourism, 2013

Although mountaineers and tourists consider the area a charming place for mountaineering and tracking. However, before the construction of KKH, the area was not easily accessible to tourists from inland and foreign (Table 8.10). Transport and hotel facilities were very limited almost negligible for tourist in Gilgit-Baltistan. Since

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the air service was subjected to weather, therefore flight could not operate for weeks due to frequent bad weather conditions. As such the potentials of tourists could not be explored.

Table 8.10, Gilgit-Baltistan, Important passes their locations and heights

Passes Location Heights Irshad Afghanistan Border 16,158 feet Kilik Chinese Border 15,800 feet Mantika Chinese Border 15,450 feet Khunjerab Chinese Border 15,420 feet Shimshal Chinese Border 15,540 feet Shandur Chitral Border 12,205 feet Darkut Chitral Border 15,560 feet Babusar Kaghan Border 13,000 feet Shoonter Kail Border 14,973 feet Kamari Kamari/Minimarg 13,370 feet Burzil Minimarg/ Gultari 13,375 feet Ali Malik Deosai 13,350 feet Chachok Minimarg 13,997 feet Chorbat Line of Control 16,700 feet (Khaplu) Source: GOGB, 2013

In 1982, thirty three mountaineering and trekking parties visited the area comprising of about 215 members, which was increased to 216 parties (comprising 1345 members from 16 countries) in 2005 and recorded an average annual increase of 14.52% during the past thirty years in terms of the number of parties (GOGB, 2005). The revenue generated as royalty which was Rs.0.692 million in 1982 has increased to nearly Rs.22.235 million in 2002 indicating an average annual growth of 27.68%. The data reveals that in 1998, the estimated number of tourists visited Gilgit-Baltistan was 40,000.

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In Gilgit-Baltistan, during the last five years tourism sector has improved to a great extent. According to the official statement of tourism department the study area received more than five lakh (500,000) domestic tourist during the years 2015 and 2016. The high flow of domestic tourists is a positive sign for the economic development of the area. Several new restaurants and hotels are under construction in every district of Gilgit-Baltistan. Banking facilities are available up to Khunjerab where the National Bank of Pakistan has installed an ATM machine which is the highest ATM machine of the world at a height of above fifteen thousand feet

The study reveals that although the domestic tourists’ inflow has increased but the foreign tourists visiting the area are limited. The reason for limited inflow of foreign visitors is the regional security issues. Pakistan has suffered a lot during the last fifteen years due to the war on terrorism in Afghanistan. Impacts of this undeclared war are visible in every sector and area of Pakistan. Many countries have alarmed their visitors through their embassies in Pakistan. It is obvious in these circumstances that limited number of foreign visitors will come to this area (Kifayat, 2013). Domestic tourism is flourishing throughout the country and especially in the study area. It is an encouraging sign for the socio-economic development of the area. The local markets and hotels are expanding day by day. The facilities for local as well as foreign visitors are still not standardized and it needs a lot of improvement to attract more visitors. In this regard many historical and cultural sites need proper attention to make it presentable for the visitors. Altit and Baltit fort are the best examples which are earning a lot after its inclusion in international heritage list.

8.5.1 The Role of Gilgit-Baltistan Government in Tourism Development

The analysis reveals that study area is blessed with a lot of natural tourist resorts. It is considered as heaven on the earth for adventurous tourists. After the construction of KKH the area was made accessible for the people of other provinces of Pakistan. In this way domestic tourism get started in Gilgit-Baltistan. The local community welcomed this new development and with the passage of time tourism sector gained a lot. Looking towards the success of tourism the government of Gilgit- Baltistan gave top priority to this sector. The tourism department has a very tough schedule including cultural festivals and games competition to motor car and jeep rallies throughout the year. During summer season the efficient workers of tourism

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department are available at every resort and guide the tourists very enthusiastically (Table, 8.10). The actual figures of income earned through tourism are not available but its contribution to the socio-economic development of the study area cannot be ignored.

The study further reveals that most of the tourists either it is domestic or foreigners come for adventure tourism. They enjoy camping and trekking in the beautiful natural resorts. The scenic and clean atmosphere of the area attracts the tourists but one thing is common for all the tourists and that is the distances between one district to another. For example after covering a long journey of six hundred kilometers in mountains to Gilgit, it is very difficult to travel further to Skardu, which is located two hundred kilometers eastward from Gilgit having a single road in a very hazardous condition. The Gilgit-Skardu road needs proper attention on priority basis not only for tourism but for the whole area. It connects the half of population and three big districts to the provincial capital.

The construction of KKH has helped to develop tourism sector to a large extent. Northern Areas, the junction of the three great mountain ranges of the world, are a delight for the tourists, the trekker, the mountaineers and the wild-life enthusiasts (Baloch, 2004). The scenic beauty of the area and the lofty peaks has immense attractions for a large number of tourists each year.

The construction of KKH and other inter-valley links made all touristic spots easily accessible. In 1998 the estimated number of tourists visiting Northern Areas was about 40,000 (GOGB, 2013). The number of visiting tourists in increasing year by year. During the pre-KKH era, the number of mountaineers who visited Gilgit- Baltistan to see the important peaks was small in number. Usually two to three parties come to the area. But after opening of KKH, it has increased manifold (Ali, 2004). The number of trekking groups in the open zones is also increasing rapidly. The exact figures are not available as no permit from the Government is required by the trekker for trekking in the open zones. However the Government grants permit for mountaineers to scale/conquer various peaks as well as to trekker for trekking in the restricted zones.

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In 1982, thirty three mountaineering trekking parties visited the area comprising of about two hundred and fifteen members which was increased to two hundred and sixteen parties (comprising 1345 members from 16 countries) thus witnessing an average increase of 14.52% annually over the last 30 years in terms of the number of parties (GOGB, 2005). The revenue earned as royalty which was Rs.0.692 million in 1982 has now increased to $555,760.00(= to nearly Rs.22.235 million) in 2002 indicating an average annual growth of 27.68%. Details of mountaineers/trekker visited Northern Areas as well as royalty received thereon has been tabulated at Annexures. However, graphical presentation of mountaineering parties and royalty received from these is given below:

The inflow of tourists in the area has helped in generating employment opportunities to the people of the area in tourist related complementary industry. These include hoteling industry, handicrafts, transport and construction. A large number of hotels throughout the area have been constructed (Stone, 2008). Names of some of the important hotels along with their location and capacity have been given in the Annexures. Besides this, the Pakistan Tourism Development Corporation (PTDC) has established motels at Gilgit, Skardu, Karimabad Hunza and Sost. Local Administration has also constructed Rest Houses at various scenic places in the entire area of Gilgit-Baltistan covering almost all the touristic spots. A large number of hotels/motels are under constructions.

The study found that until now neither the federal government of Pakistan nor the provincial government of Gilgit-Baltistan has gained economic benefits from the potential tourism of the area. Preservation of historical and cultural heritage through research based techniques will not only attract the visitors and researchers but also will create new employment opportunities. The first and foremost step towards this is to provide fool proof security environment to the visitors. The sectarian violence in the study area gave a nasty blow to the overall socio-economic development of the area for a considerable time. The situation is now under control and the high inflow of domestic tourists in the last three years is a better example of it. Secondly the quality of food items and hotel facilities are still limited. To overcome this issue private sector must be encouraged to invest in the hoteling and market development with a well-planned policy measures.

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The footraces in tourism development need proper management and serious practical steps. In order to utilize the benefits of KKH more infrastructural developments is required which is difficult but not impossible. The investment on KKH has brought the spectacular area of Gilgit-Baltistan to this position; further more investment would give it a status of international tourism center. In the near future the area is becoming a hub of tourism and the local people as well as government of Gilgit-Baltistan will get more economic benefits.

8.5.1.1 Development of Tourism

The construction of KKH has helped to develop tourism sector to a large extent. Northern Areas, the rendezvous of the three great mountain ranges of the world, are a delight for the tourists, the trekker, the mountaineers and the wild-life enthusiasts. The scenic beauty of the area and the lofty peaks has immense attractions for a large number of tourists each year.

The construction of KKH and other inter-valley roads made all touristic spots easily accessible. In 1998 the estimated number of tourists visiting Northern Areas was about 40,000 (Kifayat, 2013). The number of visiting tourists is increasing year by year. During the pre-KKH era, the number of mountaineers who visited Gilgit- Baltistan to see the important peaks was small in number. Usually two to three parties come to the area. But after opening of KKH, it has increased manifold. The number of trekking groups in the open zones is also increasing rapidly. The exact figures are not available as no permit from the Government is required by the trekker for trekking in the open zones. However the Government grants permit for mountaineers to scale/conquer various peaks as well as to trekker for trekking in the restricted zones.

In 1982, 33 mountaineering trekking parties visited the area comprising of about 215 members which was increased to 216 parties (comprising 1345 members from 16 countries) thus witnessing an average increase of 14.52% annually over the last 30 years in terms of the number of parties. The revenue earned as royalty which was Rs.0.692 million in 1982 has now increased to $555,760.00(= to nearly Rs.22.235 million) in 2002 indicating an average annual growth of 27.68%. Details of mountaineers/trekker visited Northern Areas as well as royalty received thereon has been tabulated at Annexure-II. However, graphical presentation of mountaineering parties and royalty received from these is given below:

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The inflow of tourists in the area has helped in generating employment opportunities to the people of the area in tourist related complementary industry. These include hoteling industry, handicrafts, transport and construction. A large number of hotels throughout the area have been constructed (Stone, 2008). Names of some of the important hotels along with their location and capacity have been given in the Annexure-III. Besides this, the Pakistan Tourism Development Corporation (PTDC) has established motels at Gilgit, Skardu, Karimabad Hunza and Sust. Local Administration has also constructed Rest Houses at various scenic places in the entire area of Gilgit-Baltistan covering almost all the touristic spots. A large number of hotels/motels are under constructions.

Table 8.11, Gilgit-Baltistan, International Tourist Arrivals, 1998-2006

Type 1998 1999 200 2001 2002 200 2004 2005 2006 0 3 InternationalArri 42888 43222 5567 49970 10257498,100500,9 6480 7983 8984 vals to Pakistan 0 International 11,33 10,12 8,97 15,68 1,99 5,05 9,19 9,944 15,04 Arrivals to GB 9 4 6 5 4 1 1 9 Trekking 165 181 168 245 43 106 255 251 196 Expeditions Trekkers 950 803 889 1,318 99 377 1,77 1,443 1,049 6 8 7 9 8 5 7 1 .4% .9% .9% .4% .0% .5% 14.5% 9.3% Hiking 55 68 66 73 32 63 72 69 96 Expeditions Climbers 313 461 407 485 210 466 603 475 657 2 4 4 3 1 6.6%9 4.8% 4.4% .8% .6% .5% .1% 0.5% .2% Source: Department of Tourism, Gilgit- Baltistan, 2013

8.5.2 Voyage Tourism

The study finds that Gilgit-Baltistan is having an advantage of attracting the tourists for adventure tourism. Before entering to Gilgit at raikot is located a junction points of the three highest mountain ranges i.e. the hamalayas, the Karakorum and the

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hindukush. In these mountain ranges the loftiest mountains like K 2 (world number two), nanga parbat, rakaposhi, gesharbrem and passo cons etc not only attract the mountain hiking parties but people also come for camping and enjoying the beauty of tourist resorts (Tarar, 2013). These activities began in April and continue till September. The weather conditions and facilities available did not allow the tourists to stay in winter season which starts earlier than other provinces of Pakistan (Table 8.11). During the summer season when hiking and tourist parties coming into the area the local people also get an employment opportunity e.g. porter (caretakers) who know the area well act as a guide as well as take care of the accessories of the tourists. Thousands of people of the study area get involved with the visitors and they considers these months as their earning period. A special club is established at Gilgit to train these porters, mountaineers and guides to keep the environment clean and facilitate the hiking parties to complete their mission. Due to the inhospitable terrain, harsh walking tracks and jeepable roads the expenses for tourists are much high. In 2008 the expenses for one hiking member were about five thousand US Dollars. The hiking parties and most of the adventure tourists are of the view that difficult mountainous terrain, hazardous link roads, uncertain weather conditions, high rates of local vehicles and limited facilities of food at tourist resorts are the main issue to be resolved in future.

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Table 8.12 Gilgit-Baltistan Mountaintops and Excursions

Peak Height Attempts Conquers K-2 8610m 9 3 Nanga 8125m 8 4 Parbat Gesherbrum 8068m 8 4 -i Wide Peak 8047m 16 7 Gesherbrum 8035m 22 19 -ii Gesherbrum 7952 m 33 22 – III Rakaposhi 7788 m 30 19 Passu Peak 7284 m N.A N.A K-6 7281 m N.A N.A Diran 7266 m N.A N.A Latok-I 7151 m N.A N.A Spantik 7027 m N.A N.A Golden 7027 m N.A N.A Peak Source: Department of Tourism, Gilgit- Baltistan.2013

The study area is blessed with a lot of walking tracks in every district. The visitors and tourists love to walk on beautiful tracks during their visits. Limited population and vast mountainous area offers many beautiful scenic resorts. That is why it is very difficult for the tourists to see the whole area in a single visit. The hiking parties’ visit to the study area is increasing every year. It was very low in 2001 only hundred people visited for hiking but raised to eighteen hundred in 2008 and more than four thousand in 2015 (GOGB, 2015). The hiking parties mostly visit the area and its famous tracks for two purposes i.e. to enjoy the natural beauty and to see the glaciers on these tracks.

The areas adjacent to the study area in neighboring countries like India, Nepal, China and Bhutan also have some beautiful tourist resorts to attract more foreign

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visitors. As noted above the study needs further development to promote tourism. The formation of four public parks on a huge area is a good step towards future development. From Sost to Khunjerab the central Karakorum Park is a unique example covering a huge area without any population. Deosai Park is becoming a most visited place of the study area with more than two lakhs people visiting in 2016 (Table 8.13). More efforts are needed to enhance the capacity of eco-tourism in the study area and promote awareness in the local populace to earn more from this profitable business.

Table 8.13 Public Gardens in Gilgit-Baltistan, by area (hectares)

Public Parks Area

Central Karakoram Park 974,939

Khunjerab Park 228,133

Deosai Wasteland Park 373,610

Handrap Park 52,700

Total Area 1,629,382

Source: GOGB, 2013

8.5.3 Community Commitment in Tourism Development

The analysis reveals that after the construction of KKH the federal government professed the whole area from Sost to Khunjerab a public property wild life park. At that time the population of the whole area was only five lakh seventy five thousand. The local community was not pleased with this decision because all the income was going to the government treasury and the local community remained deprived. Looking at the commitment of local workers the government agreed to give eighty percent of the income to the local community with the condition that they will look after the national asset. The local workers very enthusiastically accepted the challenge and recognized teams at village level to preserve and guard the wildlife as a national asset. In this way they became more confident and now the people of Hunza are the most educated and experienced among the other districts population.

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The study further reveals that traditional food of the area also includes trout fish. The tourists also take interest in the traditional food especially the trout fish. To boost fishing in the area the local community has organized an association of social workers to train more people. To preserve this precious species of fish the fisheries department is working hard in many areas which will contribute more in the economy of Gilgit-Baltistan.

8.5.4 Cultural Activities

The study area is having a unique cultural composition. Historically it remained under different civilizations but due to its remoteness the people of the area has maintained their cultural norms. Many archaeological places in every district have been found and preserved by national archives and heritage department (Dani, 2001). In order to promote the cultural activities in the region and highlight it to other people, the tourism department of Gilgit-Baltistan is arranging cultural festivals in every district in their annual calendar.

Developing tourism sector does not require modern tools and techniques but presenting a culture in better also attract tourists. In Pakistan cultural activities are given very little importance and they are not encouraged to present it to the world. The current statistics of cultural activities at national level as well in the study area are not sufficient enough to attract more visitors (Table, 8.14). The lok virsa museum Islamabad is playing a vital role in regard. They not only arrange cultural activities frequently but also facilitate the visitors with presenting the cultural diversification of the whole region. This type of museum is required in every provincial capital of Pakistan.

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Table 8.14 Comparison of number of Tourists, 2006 and 2014

Location 2006 2014

Domestic Foreign Total Domestic Foreign Total

Hunza 9350 4380 13730 144000 4040 148040

Skardu 3900 250 4150 36000 300 36300

Source: Department of Tourism, Gilgit- Baltistan.2015

The study explores that looking at the beauty and unique environment of the area; foreign visitors coming to the area are very small in number. It is because of two reasons, the growing security issues after 9/11 2001 incident and the Atta Abad lake incident on KKH. Although both the issues have been resolved but once the gap is created it takes a lot of time to regain momentum. The flow of domestic tourists has been increased unprecedentedly during the last three years. Many respondents said that almost all the tourists feels good and pledge to visit again and again this picturesque area.

8.5.5 Preservation of Balteet Fort

The Balteet fort located at Hunza-nagar is one of the few most visited sites in the study area. It was the residence of the local price built two hundred years ago. In order to attract the tourists and provide an opportunity to the local people to get economic benefits, the agha khan cultural support programme took initiative to preserve this historical fort and the adjacent village. The idea was very successful and the Balteet fort is now a compulsory site for every tourist visiting the area. A large market of local handmade accessories is also attracting the visitors and a source of income for the local community. The entrance fee is very high i.e. three hundred per person, by lowering the fee during summer season more income will be earned.

8.5.6 Encounters in Tourism

The impediments in developing tourism in the study area are many in numbers. The first and foremost is the security issue for foreign visitors. The Nanga Parbat incident was a big blow not only for tourism but also for law and order

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situation in the whole region. Although the culprits has been arrested but it created a trust deficit among the foreign visitors. Apart from security concerns several other issues needs to be addressed. Building infrastructure in the vast mountainous area of Gilgit-Baltistan needs more financing from the federal government of Pakistan. The challenges are there but not difficult enough to encounter if it is seriously dealt.

8.5.7 Unpredictable Accessibility

The analysis reveals that after the construction of KKH the isolation of the study area was broken but the only way to reach the area is itself making it unpredictable. Land sliding areas irregularly stop the traffic for hours and some time for days this long highway. Another way to enter the area is by air which is also not much reliable due to uncertain weather conditions. Two small airports at Gilgit and Skardu are not sufficient enough to meet the requirements of the whole area. To attract more foreign visitors the airports and flight facilities needs improvement. New aircrafts with large capacity should be planned to take frequent flights. A long section of KKH from Havelian to Chillas is still not good enough to travel. Alternative routes such as Chitral to Gilgit via Ghizer is under construction and a by-pass at chillas via babusar is already been completed. All eyes are on CPEC successful operation which will minimize the above mentioned obstacles in the near future.

8.5.8 Inadequate Infrastructure

In Gilgit-Baltistan, tourism depends on efficient road network especially in mountainous areas. In the study region, roads are mostly unpaved and jeep-able and become very difficult in bad weather. KKH is the major spine route passing through the region in north-south direction. It starts from China border the Khunjerab pass via districts of Hunza-Nagar, Gilgit and Diamer. Two major roads also link the remote areas including the eastern section connecting the Skardu Division and the road passes along the River Indus. The western road also connects District Chitral through Shandur pass.

These links needs further improvement to attract more tourists and investors. The up gradation of KKH is completed from Kashghar to Gilgit. Still a long section is under construction i.e. Gilgit-Thakot section. In this section Diamer-Bhasha Dam is also proposed which will completely sunken KKH for a long distance. An alternate

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route for this purpose has been developed via Babusar-Naran-Mansehra but it is also not feasible for heavy containers. The Gilgit-Chitral connection can be a viable alternate route because Peshawar-Swat motorway is already under construction and Swat-Dir and Chitral expressway is likely to be initiated in the near future. If these routes are developed in the next five years then tourism sector of the study area will get an extra ordinary advantage.

The study further reveals that the northern areas transport company (NATCO) has performed well since its establishment in 1974. After the inception of KKH it was the only transport network facilitating the passengers as well cargo service from Rawalpindi to Gilgit-Baltistan and Kashghar. Currently many private companies have started transport service to the area. From Sost to Kashghar passengers can travel through Natco service. As a state owned company Natco is not only providing economical traveling facility but also earning profits.

The study area is lacking standard hoteling facilities. For instance in 2016 the flow of domestic tourists was much higher than the expectations. The visitors after covering a long distance get discouraged with the inadequate hoteling facilities. In order to meet these problems the government must encourage private investors to build more restaurants and hotels to accommodate and facilitate the tourists in the future

8.6 CONCLUSION

In order to promote trade and tourism in the study area reconstruction of KKH through the rock fall area is prior to all secondary measures. It is not only necessary for the local community but more essential for trade and tourism development. Serving as the only link between the study area and the rest of the country it requires a smooth flow of traffic without any barrier. The Chinese were aware of the fact and they started up grading of KKH from Kashghar to Gilgit in 2008. They successfully completed their work in 2015 with the Atta Abad tunnels as additional item in the project. After the up gradation the road from Raikot (Gilgit) to Kashghar (China) presents a scenic picture and traveling becomes much easier than before.

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Pakistan- China Trade through KKH was very minimal in the past. The study area got some benefits in terms of domestic trade. The local people are now getting everything at the same price in their local markets as it is sold in Rawalpindi, Lahore and Peshawar. It is a positive change which was only a dream before the construction of KKH. The capacity of domestic trade is expanding day by day with the increase in population and its requirements. Trade with China through KKH is likely to begin after the implementation of CPEC short term plan which includes infrastructure development. China envisions expanding this trade network to Central Asia and Russia. For this purpose they are investing heavily in Pakistan and the success of this project is vital to the success of One Belt One Road (OBOR). They have exercised both the land and rail routes. A convoy of containers having Chinese goods traveled successfully from Kashghar to Gawadar sea port via KKH and the western route of CPEC in Pakistan. Another marvelous achievement was the railway freight from Beijing to London via Moscow.

The study area is also a part of CPEC and a special economic zone is to be built in Gilgit in the long term plan. The local people especially the skilled labor and the educated professionals can get a lot of benefits from this golden opportunity. In this regard the government as well as the people of Gilgit-Baltistan is much aware of this fact. That is why they are demanding more economic zones considering their area as the most important and gateway to China and Central Asia.

Development of tourism is another key issue of the study area. The region is blessed with plenty of beautiful places and natural tourists’ resorts. There are many places which are visited by a limited number of visitors. The harsh mountainous terrain and hazardous link roads are the main hurdles between the visitors and these scenic resorts. The construction of KKH has made it accessible for the visitors and tourists. Before the construction of KKH people have heard only the names of Northern Areas, Gilgit and Skardu. Now the area is open for domestic as well as foreign visitors to explore the beauty of nature in the vast territory of Gilgit-Baltistan. There are some impediments which need to be addressed in order to develop the tourism industry and get benefits. Again KKH at one hand is the sole link of accessibility but on the other hand the land sliding areas is a big hurdle which stops the flow of traffic for hours and sometimes for days. From Kashghar to Gilgit after up

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grading KKH this issue is resolved by building two kinds of tunnels i.e. formal tunnels and open cut tunnels. The air link is also not reliable with delay of flights as a routine practice. It can become more reliable and expand by using modern tools and technology.

Apart from roads infrastructure also includes the food and hoteling facilities. Al though the study area is having natural tourist resorts in abundance, the scarcity of population is a big issue for economic development. The study finds that cities like Gilgit and Skardu are developed and having every kind of facilities but other districts lags behind. It is due to lack of population because economic activities runs through people. In order to utilize the area up to its potential the issue of infrastructure must be resolved on war footings. The flow of domestic tourists is increasing every year which is a positive sign towards development of the area. The local people can contribute a lot in promoting tourism which will not only beneficial for them but for the entire region and the country as well.

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CHAPTER -9 FINDINGS, SUMMARY AND CONCLUSION

Introduction

This chapter is divided into two sections. Section one deals with the major findings of entire research dissertation. Whereas summary and conclusion of this research thesis is explained in the final section.

9.1 MAJOR FINDINGS

i. The analysis revealed that after the completion of Karakoram Highway (KKH) in 1978, the dream was made practical and a long awaited problem of remoteness and isolation overcome and a paradigm shift in the socio-economic development of Gilgit-Baltistan was registered. ii. It was found that the KKH has benefited and relieved the inhabitants of Gilgit- Baltistan in various socio-economic sectors. iii. It was explored from analysis that after the inception of KKH the population of the districts along the KKH has increased manifold during the past three decades. iv. It was identified during the analysis that the agriculture and livestock sector was a traditional source of livelihood earnings, but after the construction of KKH a paradigm shift has been recorded by introducing modern agricultural inputs and motivation for the farmers to cultivate more rewarding cash crops. v. The analysis revealed that during 1996 to 2016 land use land cover in the three sample districts located along the KKH has shown radical changes. It was found that area under built-up environment was increased, contrary to this area under farmland decreased. Similarly, positive change has been noted in area under forest cover, whereas area under barren land was decreased indicating that area under vegetation cover increased at the cost of barren land. vi. It was found that in Gilgit-Baltistan, amongst the staple food grain crops, wheat is a major Rabi crop, whereas maize is a dominant Kharif crop. It was found that a considerable positive increase in the yield per hectare of wheat and maize is recorded in the three sample districts along KKH.

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vii. It was found from the analysis that after KKH mechanization has been largely introduced throughout the Gilgit-Baltistan region. As a result, a positive impact on the agriculture sector was recorded. Presently, farmers preferred to apply and use tractor, thresher, harvester and trolleys. viii. It was also found that after the construction of KKH, new tube wells were constructed both for irrigation and domestic use. It is due to this assured supply of irrigation from tube wells, the gap between crop-water requirements has overcome and as a result farm production increased many folds. ix. It was found from the analysis that after the construction of KKH a rapid progress in education sector has been registered. The trend in increasing literacy ratio is registered in the three sample districts of Gilgit, Hunza-Nagar and Diamer. It was found from the analysis that in Gilgit-Baltistan the literacy ratio was rapidly increased from 14.7% in 1981 to 37.8% in 1998 and further increased to 52.0 percent in 2012. However, a recorded twelve-time increase is registered in women education, from 1981 (3%) to 2012 (36%). Nevertheless, the women literacy ratio is still very low in Diamer and Astore districts. x. The analysis further indicated that in Gilgit-Baltistan the number of primary, high, higher secondary schools and colleges has increased and the same is attributed to KKH, increasing awareness and accessibility amongst the local population. The role of schools under National Education Foundation and private sector has played a pivotal role in improving the overall literacy in the region. xi. It was found from the analysis that in Gilgit-Baltistan due to increasing literacy ratio and accessibility in the form of KKH, the over-all employment rate and economic opportunity also increased for both skilled and unskilled workers. xii. It was found from the analysis that in Gilgit-Baltistan, after the KKH the health facilities improved and the number of Government health institutions increased. However, the local population complaint about the limited number of trained doctors. Similarly, the performance of maternal and child health services in Gilgit-Baltistan lags behind and appears to have been weak. xiii. It was found that the gross revenue of all the seven districts of Gilgit-Baltistan was Rs. 5.640 million in 1993-1994, which was increased to 13.832 million in

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1997-98 and further enhanced to 20,703 million in 2008-10 indicating fourfold increase during fifteen years. xiv. The analysis revealed that there is expanding trade and commence potentials through KKH and is expected to further boost-up. However, it needs special attention of National Highway Authority to take care of its maintenance and to mitigate frequent landslides along the KKH. xv. The analysis revealed that prior to the construction of KKH the latitudes of trade between Pakistan and China through ancient silk route was negligible but after the inception of KKH the trade between Pakistan and China has been increased. The recent development in the form China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), where KKH is part of CPEC project provides a land route to China and G-B to warm-water of Arabian Sea and expected to further boost- up the trade between China and Pakistan in the years ahead. xvi. It was found from the analysis that KKH has opened avenues for the local population. It is high time that the ministry of tourism and culture needs to develop tourism sector on priority basis and un-earthen this precious treasury of Gilgit-Baltistan. However, prior to the construction of KKH, poor road network, lack of transport facility, absence of hotels and restaurants had been hurdles in promoting tourism. xvii. It was found that every year thousands of tourists visit Gilgit-Baltistan, which is famous for its natural beauty, fertile river valleys, waterfalls, numerous world highest peaks and towering snow clad mountains, thousands of small and large glaciers, historical sites, culture and traditions that attract tourists both from inland and abroad. xviii. The analysis reveals that the influx of tourists to the study region largely support in generating employment opportunities for the local population that main consists of hoteling, pottering, handicraft, guide, transport and construction. xix. The analysis revealed that the number of international tourists was recorded 40,000 in 1998 and drastically reduced to 15,000 in 2001 due to the incident of 9/11 2001, but presently once again it has registered a rising trend. In 2014-15, an ever maximum number of tourists (above 100,000) were recorded that indicate positive implications of KKH on the local economy.

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xx. It was found that development of KKH has channelized the trade relationship between Peoples Republic of China and Pakistan. It is KKH, which has connected Gilgit-Baltistan with rest of the country especially Rawalpindi (Punjab). xxi. The analysis revealed that in the study area the construction of KKH has brought about favorable improvement in trade activities. Prior to the inception of KKH, there were few shops in Gilgit and Skardu. However, after the commencement of KKH numerous shopping centers and plazas have been engineered.

9.2 SUMMARY AND CONCLUSION

Based on present study it is concluded that prior to the construction of KKH, Gilgit-Baltistan was remained inaccessible. KKH has served as an important link not only to Gilgit-Baltistan but also a link to the People’s Republic of China. At the same time, it meets the transportation needs of the local communities along its length. The study area, lacked basic facilities, opportunities to education and employment. Small scale agriculture was their only source of income. Before the construction of KKH, they had to walk for days to reach to the neighboring towns to fetch their commodities of daily use. However, the KKH has brought about a convenience and pleasure to the local population and presently entire Gilgit-Baltistan is served by the virtue of KKH. Additionally a successful communication system is an essence of socio-economic development in a country. CPEC is also an example of this presumption. KKH is part of CPEC and it provides link to China and Central Asian Republics a shortest land route to Arabian Sea. Cultural, linguistic and trade contact will consolidate relationship of Pakistan and its allies in the region through KKH.

To carry out this study, six variables including population, land use and agriculture, education, health, trade and tourism were selected and tested. Keeping in view purpose of the study, it was essential to collect all the necessary data for the achievement of objectives. Data were collected both from primary and secondary sources. Data pertaining to selected variables were collected pre and post KKH as available for the whole area. The collected data were analysed and presented in the form of maps, statistical diagrams and tables.

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It was explored from the analysis that the population of the districts along KKH has increased manifold. The agriculture and livestock sector was a traditional source of livelihood, but after the construction of KKH a paradigm shift has been recorded by introducing modern agricultural techniques and motivation for the farmers to cultivate more rewarding cash crops. The analysis further revealed that during 1996 to 2016 land use land cover in the three sample districts located along the KKH has shown radical changes. It was found that area under built-up environment was increased, contrary to this area under farmland decreased. Similarly, positive change has been noted in area under forest cover. Building of KKH and other inter- valley link roads have initiated a marketing system. It has helped in transporting the local Agricultural products in the national and international markets. Now the inhabitants of the area can bring their surplus products such as apricots, potato and fruits to the markets which went wasted previously. Now fruits and vegetables of the study area are at reach.

Gilgit-Baltistan has made rapid progress in education soon after the construction of KKH. Indeed, in many areas it is parallel to national levels. The trend in increasing literacy ratio is registered in the three sample districts of Gilgit, Hunza- Nagar and Diamer. It was found from the analysis that in Gilgit-Baltistan the literacy ratio was rapidly increased from 14.7% in 1981 to 37.8% in 1998 and further increased to 52.0 percent in 2012. However, a recorded twelve-time increase is registered in women education, from 1981 (3%) to 2012 (36%). Nevertheless, the women literacy ratio is still very low in Diamer and Astore districts.

The study further reveals that the condition of health facilities in Gilgit- Baltistan is contrary to that of other provinces of Pakistan. Inadequate infrastructure and accessibility is the main hurdle in access to health facilities for the common people. The construction of KKH was a blessing for the people of Gilgit-Baltistan but it only connected the region with other provinces of Pakistan. Many remote villages are still not accessible due to difficult terrain and no road facility. If we compare the situation of health facilities before and after the construction of KKH it has improved a lot but still not enough to cover the whole population. The number of hospitals is still minimal, which is having a negative impact on Doctors, patients’ ratio.

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The inauguration of KKH has accelerated trade in Gilgit-Baltistan. Yaks and horses have been replaced by vehicles of different categories for transportation of trade goods. Prior to construction of KKH, there were a few shops in Gilgit and Skardu. Now after, the number of shops has increased from dozens to thousands where a large number of tourists come for shopping. This has helped in utilizing the local resources and promoting the life style of the people of the area. Inception of KKH for traffic has led to establishing trade relationship with the rest of the Country especially with Rawalpindi. It has provided many products to the study area which never manufactured in its vicinity. Similarly local products of the area are supplied across the country through KKH. The volume of trade has increased tremendously as compared to the pre-KKH era and is further increasing day by day.

The KKH and other inter-valley link roads have made all tourist resorts more accessible. During the pre-KKH era, the number of mountaineers who visited Gilgit- Baltistan to see the important peaks was small in number but after the opening of KKH, it has increased manifold. The number of trekking groups in the open zones is also increasing rapidly. The inflow of tourists in the study area has been generating employment opportunities for the people of the area. These include hoteling management, handicrafts, transport and construction. A large number of hotels throughout the area have been constructed.

At the end of the present study it is concluded from the analysis that KKH has opened avenues for the local population. It is high time that the ministry of tourism and culture needs to develop tourism sector on priority basis and un-earthen this precious treasury of Gilgit-Baltistan. It was found from the analysis that prior to the construction of KKH, poor road network, lack of transport facility, absence of hotels and restaurants had been hurdles in promoting tourism. This study, however, provides policy guidelines for promoting socio-economic development of this underdeveloped area.

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ANNEXURES Annexure – 1

176

Annexure – 2

Projected Population of Gilgit-Baltistan (Projections based on

1998 population)

1,301,000

1,235,000

1,170,000

1,021,000

1,095,000

965,000 884,000

1998 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Source: GOGB 2015

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Annexure – 3

Gilgit-Baltistan, Population Density, 1998

Districts Area in Population Density/Sq.Km Sq.Km

Gilgit 4046 148,000 36.5

Hunza- 14246 99,000 6.9 Nagar

Ghizer 11772 121,000 10.3

Skardu 22124 219,000 9.9

Ghanche 4103 90,000 21.7

Astore 7221 72,000 9.9

Diamer 6820 135,000 19.8

Sources: 1998 Census Report

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Annexure – 4

Gilgit-Baltistan, District-wise number of Government Institutions by level

Districts Primary Middle High Higher Sec Total

Gilgit-Baltistan 643 271 174 7 1095

Gilgit Region 345 147 104 4 600

Gilgit 60 36 29 0 125

Ghizar 61 22 25 0 108

Diamer 113 26 9 0 148

Astore 64 34 18 0 116

Hunza-Nagar 47 29 23 4 103

Baltistan Region 298 124 70 3 495

Skardu 229 90 42 0 361

Ghanche 69 34 28 3 134

Source: Annual School Census 2011-12

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Annexure - 5

Gilgit-Baltistan, District-wise number of Teachers in Government Institutions by Level

Government NEF Private All Sectors Region/ District Male Female Total Male Female Total Male Female Total Male Female Total

Gilgit Baltistan 4430 1694 6124 469 706 1175 1321 1437 2758 6220 3837 10057

Gilgit Region 2519 1054 3573 215 445 660 897 1126 2023 3631 2625 6256

Gilgit 531 498 1029 29 150 179 308 533 841 868 1181 2049

Ghizar 545 130 675 48 230 278 370 338 708 963 698 1661

] Diamer 565 42 607 97 25 122 57 24 81 719 91 810

\ Astore 479 161 640 41 29 70 104 114 218 624 304 928

Hunza-Nagar 399 223 622 0 11 11 58 117 175 457 351 808

Baltistan Region 1911 640 2551 254 261 515 424 311 735 2589 1212 3801

Skardu 1363 467 1830 166 125 291 222 117 339 1751 709 2460

Ghanche 548 173 721 88 136 224 202 194 396 838 503 1341 Source: Annual School Census 2011-1

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Annexure – 6

Gilgit-Baltistan, College wise result of HSSC for the Academic Session 2011-12

Result % of HSS Level

S Name of College

# Pre General Over Humanities Med Pre Engg Science all %

1 1Girls Inter College Karimabad 96.15 00 83. 33 70. 18

2Girls Inter College Ghakuch - - - - 41. 84

3F.G Boys Inter College Khaplu 29.63 30. 00 44.44 25. 00

4F.G Boys Inter College Astore 76. 00 50. 00 64. 52

5F.G Boys Inter College Ghakuch 49. 37

6F .G Boys Inter College Chalt 11. 00 0 0 0 7. 69

7F.G Boys Inter College Kharmang 42. 11

8F.G Boys Inter College Shigar 37. 5

9F.G Boys Inter College Yasin 66. 67

1 0 F.G Inter College Chatorkhand 68. 42

Source: Annual School Census 2011-12

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Annexure – 7

Gilgit-Baltistan, Ongoing Schemes of Colleges

Name of Scheme Estimated Cost S.#

Construction of Boys Degree College Minawar Gilgit 50.000 M 1

2 Construction of Boys Degree College Danyore 50.000 M

Construction of Additional Class Rooms at Govt. Girls D/C 15.000 M 3 Gilgit

Construction of F.G. Boys Inter College Tangir Diamer 32.000 M 4

Construction of F.G. Girls Inter College Chilas, Diamer 46.600 M 5

6 Additional work of F.G Degree College Chilas 64.642 M

Construction of F.G. Boys Inter College Chatorkhand Ghizer 16.000 M 7

Construction of Hostel, F.G Degree College Gahkuch Ghizer 10.000 M 8

Up gradation of F.G. Girls Inter College Karimabad to 20.407 M 9 Degree level.

Up gradation of F.G Inter College Khaplu to Degree level 27.000 M 1 0

Source: GOGB 2014

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Annexure – 8

Gilgit-Baltistan, New Schemes of Colleges

S.# Name of Scheme Estimated Cost

1. Establishment of Commerce College at Skardu & Gilgit 30.000 M

2. Construction of Science Laboratories in the Colleges of GB 176.670 M

3. F. G. Inter College Astore to Degree level 5.252 M

4. Formulation of Missing Facilities at Inter College Shigar, 1.155 M Leveling of Land, Const. of Stands and Purchasing Goods.

5. Construction of Boys Inter College at Drang Dass Goharbaad 21.000 M

6. Purchase of Land for Girls Inter College Gahkuch Ghizar 1.600 M

Source: GOGB, 2015

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Annexure – 9

NUMBER OF INDOOR PATIENT TREATED DURING 2011-12 (Total Indoor-34414) 16000 14054 14000 12000 11130 10000 8000 6000 4000 2570 2275 1312 2000 881 660 615 416 406 85 10 0

Source: Directorate of Health, Gilgit-Baltistan, 2012

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Annexure – 10

LAB INVESTIGATION / SURGERIES DONE DURING 2011-12

350000 319752 300000

250000

200000

150000

100000 57889 50000 29415 27909 14169 8046 3789 1042 105 0

Source: Directorate of Health, Gilgit-Baltistan, 2012

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Annexure – 11

Gilgit-Baltistan, Devolved Programs

PSDP APPROVED PROGRAM ALLOCATION S.# COST REMARKS 2012-13

i National Program for 11000.000 282.000 Devolved but Fed. Govt. . FP & PHC, GB would provide funds up to (KA&GB) 2015 in pursuance of CCI decision dated 28th April, 2011

i Population Welfare 63.052 for GB 41.155 -Do- i. Program, Gilgit Baltistan (KA&GB)

i Maternal, Neonatal 1046.219 26.155 -Do- ii. and Child Health Care (57.0 Program, GB 00 for GB) (KA&GB)

i National TB Control 124.000 3.100 No Funds were released v. Program (IPC)

vNational Program for 247.000 6.175 -Do- . Prevention & Control of Blindness (KA&GB)

vNational Program for 37.000 0.925 -Do- i. Prevention and Control of Avian Influenza (IPC)

Source: GOGB, 2013

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ANNEXURE - 12

TREATY BETWEEN THE BRITISH GOVERNMENT AND MAHARAJA GOLAB SINGH OF JAMMU

DONE AT UMRITSUR, 16TH MARCH, 1846.

Article I. – The British Government transfers and makes over forever, in independent possession, to Mahraja Golab Sing and the hires male of his body, all the hilly or mountainous country, situated to the Eastward of the River Indus and Westward of the River Ravee, including Chumba and excluding Lahul, being part of the territories ceded to the British Government by the Lahore State, according to the provision of Article IV. of the Treaty of Lahore, dated 9th March, 1846.

Article II. – The eastern boundary of the tract transferred by the foregoing Article to Maharaja Golab Singh shall be laid down by commissioners appointed by the British Government and Maharaja Golab Singh respectively for that purpose, and shall be defined in a separate engagement after survey.

Article III. – In consideration of the transfer made to him and his heirs by the provision of the foregoing Articles, Maharaja Golab Singh will pay to the British Government the sum of Rupees (Nanukshahee), fifty lakhs to be paid on ratification of this treaty, and twenty five lakhs on or before the first October of the current year, A.D. 1846.

Article IV. – The limits of the territories of Maharaja Golab Singh shall not be at any time changed without the concurrence of the British Government.

Article V. – Mahraja Golab Singh will refer to the arbitration of the British Government any dispute or question that may arise between himself and the Government of Lahore or any other neighbouring state, and will abide by the decision of the British Government.

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Article VI. – Maharaja Golab Singh engages for himself and the heirs to join, with the whole of his Military Force, the British troops, when employed within the hills, or in the territories adjoining his possessions.

Article VII. – Maharaja Golab Singh engages never to take or retain in his service, any British subject, nor the subject of any European or American state, without the consent of the British Government.

Article VIII. – Maharaja Golab Singh engages to respect, in regard to the territory transferred to him, the provision of Article V., VI,. and VII. of the separate Engagement between the British Government and the Lahore Durbar, dated March 11th, 1846.

Article IX. – The British Government will give its aid to Maharaja Golab Singh in protecting his territories from external enemies.

Article X. – Maharaja Golab Singh acknowledges the supremacy present annually to the British Government one horse, twelve perfect shawl goats of approved breed (six male and six female), and three pair of Cashmere shawls.

Signed

F. Currie H. Hardinge

H.M. Lawrence.

By order of the Right Honorable the Governor-General of India.

F. Currie,

Secretary to the Government of India with the Governor-General.

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Annexure - 13

Questionnaire for Local Respondents

A Short Introduction

My name is ……………………………………….. As you know, KKH connected Gilgit-Baltistan to the rest of Pakistan. This survey seeks to explore the socio-economic impacts of the KKH on overall development of the area and the opinions of people with an aim to identify potential social-economic impacts. Your contribution will help us to assess the potential socio-economic impacts and develop mitigation measures.

House Hold No……………………….… Date: ……………………….

Village / Quarter: ……………………………………………………….

Name Of The Respondent: ……………………………………………

Age Of The Respondent: ……………………………………………..

Gender: 1.( ) Male 2 ( ) Female

1 Interview is administered to the household head 2 Interview is administered to a close family member His or her relationship to household

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1. Household Characteristics

1.1. Total number of household members ………………………………

1.3. Name 1.4. Gender 1.5 Age 1.6. Relationship of 1.7. Marital 1.8. Is the family 1.9. What is the Head Status member literate current/last school that 1. Female 1. Household Head 1. Single or illiterate? the family member is 2. Male 2. Wife/Husband 2. Married 1. Literate attending/has gradated? 3. Son 3. Divorced 2. Illiterate 1. Below school age 4. Daughter 4. Widowed 2. Hasn’t graduated 5. Son/daughter in Law 5. Separated from any institution 6. Grandchild 3. Primary School

7. Parent student

8. Brother/Sister 4. Primary School 9. Grandparent Graduate 10. Other (Specify) 5. Junior High School Student 6. Junior High School Graduate 7. High School Student 8. High School Graduate 9. Vocational School of Higher Education Student 10. Vocational School of Higher Education

Graduate 11. University Student 12. University Graduate 13. Masters Student

1.2. Member No. Member 1.2. 14. Master Graduate 15. Doctorate Student 16. Doctorate Graduate

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1.11. If household member is not working, please mention the reason 1. Retired 2. Student 3. Housewife (only for female 1.12. What is/are the household members spouses) 1.13. Who is s/he working occupations? 1.10 Has the 4. Cannot find a job for? 5. Pregnant 1. farmer household 1. His/her own business (gets 2. Livestock breeder member worked 6. So ill that he/she cannot all or a share of the profit) 1.14. Does s/he need to live 3. Retired in an occupation work 2. Family Business (work outside the village to do this 7. Too old 4. Craftsman which brings with a wage) jobs? 5. Merchant income in the last 8. Too young 3. Family business (unpaid) If yes please state how many 6. Civil Servant 3 months 9. Handicapped 4. Medium or large months a years, if no please 10. Does not need to 7. Worker 1. Yes enterprise (More than 10 enter zero. 8. Teacher 2. No work workers) state which 9.Doctor 11. Looks after house industry (e.g 4 Marble works 10. Other (Please Specify factory) if different than the above. 12. Looks after elderly 5. Government E.g. 11: Pedler) 13. Looks after children 14. Not allowed to

Member No. (Ember Continuing from the above table) above the from Continuing (Ember No. Member work (e.g. female members) 15. Does not want to work 16. Other (please specify)

Primary Secondary Primary Secondary Primary Secondary 1 Occupation Occupation Occupation Occupation Occupation Occupation 1.15. Do house member speak, understand and/or write a language other than mother tongue? 1. Yes (State which language)…………………. 2. No 1.16. How long have you been living here as household/family? ……………………………..Years 1.17. Have you –as a household lived in another place, such as another village, another town, or abroad for three or more months at one time? If yes, where have you lived before? 1. Yes (Sate which city/district/village)……………. 2. No 1.18. Why did you move here? (Tick as much as relevant) 1. ( ) Schooling of children 2. ( ) look for work 3. ( ) Start new job 4. ( ) Escape war/violence 5. ( ) Escape drought/famine 6. ( ) Escape a family conflict 7. ( ) Other (Specify)

1.19. Had any of your relative/friends lived here before you came?

1. Yes 2. No

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1.20. Did they help you with your settlement?

1. Yes 2. No a. Was it easy to settle here or did you experience any difficulties when you came? 2. Income Expenditure and Savings

2.1. What are the main income sources of your family?

(Read all the options to the interviewee 1 Important 2. Less Important 3. Least Important. 4. None

1. Wage/Salary

2. Farming

3. Husbandry

4. Wood and wood products

5. Tourism

6. Trading

7. Rental Income

8. Assistance of relative

9. Pensions

10. Poverty funds (State which one………………..)

11. Other governmental aids/assistance (i.e. unemployment wage)

12. In kind aids from the government (coal etc)

13. Aids/Assistance from NGOs

14. Allowances for elderly

15. Other (Please Specify)

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2.2. What is the average monthly income of the household” (Other than subsistence production)

………………………………………………

2.3. What is the average year income of the household? (Other than subsistence production)

……………………………………………….

2.4. How do you consider yourself? 1. ( ) Very Poor 2. ( ) Poor 3. ( ) Lower middle income level 4. ( ) Middle income level 5. ( ) Higher middle income level 6. ( ) Rich 7. ( ) Very Rich

2.5. Do you do any subsistence production? Please state the approximate equal value of your subsistence production (enter zero if not produced)

FRUITS/ EGG, MILK AND MEAT OTHER (PLEASE TOTAL (TO BE VEGETABHLES ETC MILK PRODUCT SPECIFY) FILLED BY THE SURVEYOR)

2.6. How much do spend monthly for food/drinks? ______2.7. How much do you spend annually for heating? ______2.8. How much do you spend monthly for electricity? ______

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2.9. How much your health expenditures cost annually? ______

2.10 How much your children’s (if exist) schooling expenditures cost annually?

______2.11 How much do you save yearly? ______(if the interviewee does not save, write zero and go to Section C)

2.12. How do you invest your savings? (Please tick as much as relevant) 1. ( ) buy foreign currency 2. ( ) Buy gold 3. ( ) Bank (with an interest rate) 4. ( ) I buy immovable properties 5. ( ) Other (Please Specify) ______

3. Land Use and Agriculture

31. Do you or members of your household has any agricultural land or do farming?

1. Yes 2. No 3.2. How many parcels do you own/cultivate and how large are they?

______Parcels, total of ______Ha

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3.43 3.5. Is 33.7. 3.8. 3.9. What 3.10 3.11 3.3 Ownership the land 3.6 What do Who is the title No. Status irrigated The you cultivate deed How do What is the Size cultivate on this status of you use the approximate 1. Own and 1. Yes of the on this land? this land? products? value of the Cultivate product 2. No parcel land) 1. For this land (ha) 1. Title deed subsistence 2. I own but I don’t 2. Without 2. Selling cultivate title deed at internal this land market 3. 3. I rent Customary 3. Selling this land at external from 4. Other markets someone 5. I do not 4. Other else know 4. I rent out this 5. I have a shareholder 6. Other (Please specify)

3.12. Do women in your family own/inherit land? 1. If yes, can they sell land, can they decide how to use it? 2. If no, do they interfere with the decisions regarding the usage of lands? If so, how?

3.13. What happened to the agricultural production in the last 5 years?

1. Increased 2. Decreased (Go to G9) 3. Did not change (Go to G10)

3.14. Why did the agricultural production increase (please tick as much as relevant) 1. ( ) The quality of seeds got better 2. ( ) Usage of chemical fertilizers and pesticides have increased 3. ( ) usage of organic fertilizers have increased 4. ( ) irrigation has improved 5. ( ) I bought agricultural vehicles 6. ( ) other, please specify______

195

3.15. Why did the agricultural production decrease? (Please tick as much as relevant) 1. ( ) Erosion 2. ( ) Lack of agricultural vehicles 3. ( ) lack of labour 4. ( ) low product prices 5. ( ) other, please specify

3.16. Do you have poultry or cattle? What do you produce from them? Is it subsistence or for selling purposes?

4. Housing and Infrastructure

4.1. What is your ownership status of your house? 1. ( ) Owner of the house 2. ( ) Renter (if so how much is the rent) ______3. ( ) Provided by employer 4. ( ) User not paying rent 5. ( ) Other ______6. ( ) I do not know

4.2. What are the main building materials? (The surveyor should make observation and confirm it with the interviewee – tick only one) 1. ( ) Brick 2. ( ) Concrete 3. ( ) Wooden 4. ( ) Stone 5. ( ) Soil 6. ( ) Other (Specify) ______7. ( ) I do not know

4.3. How many rooms are there in your house (including the living room)? Rooms

______

4.4. What is the domestic water source in your house? 1. ( ) Plumbing inside the house (bathroom, kitchen, WC) 2. ( ) Water Pump 3. ( ) Well Water

196

4. ( ) Village Fountain 5. ( ) Water tank 6. ( ) Interior Tap water (one tap) 7. ( ) Interior Water supply system (multiple taps) 8. ( ) Plumbing outside the house 9. ( ) Other (Please Specify)

4.5. Do you have any problems with water supply? 1. Yes 2. No

4.6. What are your problems with water supply? (Tick as much as relevant. Can be more than one) 1. ( ) Water cuts. How frequent? ______2. ( ) Not clean 3. ( ) Expensive 4. ( ) Difficult to Access 5. ( ) Low quality (hardness) 6. ( ) Other (Please state) ______

4.7. Do you use domestic water for drinking purposes? 1. Yes 2. No (Please state your drinking water source)______

4.8. Do you have any problem with drinking water supply? 1. Yes 2. No

4.9. What are your problems with drinking water supply (tick as relevant. Can be more than one) 1. ( ) Not Clean 2. ( ) Expensive 3. ( ) Difficult to access 4. ( ) Low quality (harness) 5. ( ) other (please state)

4.10. What type of sanitation facility do you have? 1. ( ) Interior WC with toilet flush tank 2. ( ) Exterior WC with toilet flush tank 3. ( ) interior toilet without flush tank 4. ( ) exterior toilet without flush tank

197

5. ( ) public WC 6. ( )other (please specify)

4.11. What type of wastewater system do you have in your house? 1. ( ) Common sewage system 2. ( ) Septic tank disposed regularly by municipality 3. ( ) Septic tank disposed regularly by him/herself 4. ( ) Discharged directly a river / land 5. ( ) Other (please specify) ______6. ( ) I do not know

4.12. How are the solid wastes disposed? 1. ( ) Municipality collects regularly 2. ( ) Disposed to a predefined landfall 3. ( ) Disposed to wild disposal area 4. ( ) Disposed irregularly 5. ( ) Disposed to the river/lake 6. ( ) Other ______7. ( ) I do not know

4.13. Do you have electricity in your house? 1. Yes 2. No

4.14. Do you experience any problem with electricity supply? 1. Yes 2. No

4.15. What kind of problems do you experience? (Tick as relevant you may tick more than one) 1. ( ) Electricity cuts. How frequents ______2. ( ) Low Voltage 3. ( ) Changing Voltage 4. ( ) Other Please Specify

4.16. Which fuel do you mainly use for heating> (Tick One) 1. ( ) Fuel Wood 2. ( ) Gas

198

3. ( ) Natural Gas 4. ( ) Fuel Oil 5. ( ) Other ______

4.17. DO you have wood allowance from the administration? 1. Yes (State How much) ______2. No

5. Education

5.1. Do you have children 6-15 years old? 1. Yes (State How many) ______2. No

5.2. Do all your children go to school? 1. Yes 2. No (State how many of them do not go, and their genders)

5.3. Why do not some/any of your children go to school?

5.4. Which schools do your children go? a. Are you satisfied with these education facilities? Do you have any problems/issues? Please explain

6. Health

6.1. Do any of household members have a permanent /chronic disease/health problem? 1. Yes 2. NO

6.2. Did any of the household members face a health problem which required treatment within the last 12 months? 1. Yes 2. No

6.3. Did any of the household members suffer from any contagious diseases within the last 12 months? 1. Yes 2. No

6.4. Did any of the household members suffer from any water borne diseases within the last 12 months? 1. Yes (Please explain by giving the member code) 2. No

6.5. When you experience a health problem, which health facility do you go?

199

6.6. Are you satisfied with the health facilities in the region? Do you experience any problem? Please explain

6.7. What type of social societies do you and the household members have?

Member Government Business Land Labor Tenants Nomads Other Do not Do No Employees man owners of Land (Please have a not owners Specify) social Know security 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

7. Perceptions and Expectations

7.1. In your Perception, What are the most important four problems (development) issues in your village? 1. ______2. ______3. ______4. ______

7.2. How was your income status, standard o living when compared to 5 years ago? 1. Better 2. The Same 3. Worse

7.3. What is the reason for this?

200

7.4. How do you learn about the local news? Please state 5 most important channels in order.

Local Television channels

National television channels

Local Radio Channels

National Radio Channels

Local Press

National Press

Internet

Posters

Brouchers

Village meetings

Patwari/ Nambardar

Imam

Teacher

Neighbors / Friends

Others (Please Specify)

201

7.5. How did you learn about the KKH? Please state the 5 most important channels in order.

Local Television Channels National Television Channels Local Radio Channels National Radio Channels Local Press National Press Internet Poster Brochures Village Meetings Patwari/ Nambardar Imam Teacher Neighbors/Friends Other (Please Specify) 7.6. What do you think about the benefits of the KKH?

For Your Family For The village For the Country

7.7. What are the adverse effects of KKH?

For Your Family For The village For the Country

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8. Social Integration and Cohesion

1. Do you think that you will have good relations with the people who might come for working purposes through KKH?

1. Yes ( )

2. No ( )

3. Depends on circumstances (Please Specify)

______

2. If your answer is “No” please specify the reasons?

______

3. Did your household have any disputes with another household in the past?

1. ( ) Yes 2. ( ) No

4. If “Yes” What was the reason how was it resolved? Please Specify.

______

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Annexure – 13 B

Questionnaire for Discussion with Village/Department Officials

Questionnaire No: ______

Date of Interview: ______

Name of Interviewer: ______

Name of Interviewee: ______

1. Questionnaire was administered to the village headman. ( ) 2. Questionnaire was administered to another key informant. ( )

Please specify: ______

Address: ______

Phone Number: ______

Name of Village: ______

Name of District: ______

1. Historical Profile

When was the village founded? Ask for a short history of the village. ______2. Demography/General Profile

How many people are there in the village? How many households are there? ______How many different ethnic groups are there in this village? Can you tell me what the main ethnicities are?

______What are the cultural differences?

______

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Which languages are spoken in your community?

______What is the main religion in your community? Are there any other religions?

______Has the population of the village increased or decreased in the last 10 years? Why?

______Has there been migration into the area? Where have these people come from and why?

______What were the positive impacts of migration?

______What were the negative impacts of migration?

______Has there been any conflict between residents and migrants?

______3. Administration / Leadership

Are there any groups, organizations, associations or cooperatives in the village? What are these? (E.g. women’s savings groups, hunters association, etc).

______Other than those mentioned above do you know any influential people or representatives of interest groups in the village?

______14. Does your district have a development plan that you know of? Have you been consulted about it?

______

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4. Local Economy / Livelihoods

What are the main jobs that people in the community do?

______Do certain groups specialize in certain jobs? Which groups do certain jobs?

______5. Forest Resources/Land Ownership

Is there a forest in the close vicinity of your village?

______Do people pick up firewood from the forest? Do people pick up non-wood forest products?

______Can you give some information about agricultural production?

______Which agricultural products do you produce? Are farms small or large in general?

______Do people in the village own land? Is this a formal or informal agreement and with whom?

______Do women inherit land?

______Can they buy/sell land or have a word in the decisions about the usage of a land parcel?

______

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6. Social Cohesion and Integration

Has there been any conflict or tension over the following issues during the past years in your village? If yes, what was/were the reason(s) for the tension(s)/conflict(s)? How do these disputes get resolved?

______

Issues Over natural resources (e..g) water, energy, raw materials)

Land

Over employment opportunities and jobs

Issues ensuing from cultural differences and religious issues

Conflicts between households

Other (please specify): ……………………………

Has there been any conflict / tension with the neighboring villages? If yes, what was / were the reason(s) for the tension (s) / conflict (s)? Is it still continuing? If no, how do these disputes get resolved?

______

Has there been any conflict with the industrial facilities nearby? If yes, what was/were the reason(s) for the conflict? Is it still continuing? If no, how do these disputes get resolved?

______

Do you think any conflicts can arise between the migrant workers and the locals? If so, why and how do you think can such situations be avoided? ______

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7. Socio-Economic Infrastructure

Is there any of following public or private socio-economic infrastructures in your quarter and how many?

______

Socio-economic infrastructures How If no structure, Is this service many Where is the sufficient for the nearest, at how current population? many km’s?

Primary Education School

High School

Hospital

Health Center (Village Clinic) (Hospitals)

Other Health Facilities

Police Station

Library

Shops (Market, Bakery etc)

Financial (e.g. Banks, ATM, Exchange Offices)

Post Office

Coffee Shop

Other (Please Specify)

Are you satisfied with the electricity supplies in your village? If not, what kind of problems do you experience? Have all houses got electricity?

______

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What are the main sources of water in the village? Is it enough for the village? Do you experience any problems with water supply? Has there ever been an incidence of water borne diseases?

______

Is there a sewage system in the village? Where is it discharged to? If no, how do you deal with the waste waters? Are you experiencing any problems with waste waters/sewage?

______

What type of heating systems do village residents use to heat their home? Please specify

______

How is the solid handled? Do you experience any problems regarding solid waste disposal?

______

What are the educational facilities in the village? Are you satisfied with them?

______

What are the health facilities in your village? Are you satisfied with them?

______

Are you aware of any widespread and/or contagious diseases in the village (for the last 5 years)?

______

Is there a public transport system in your village? Are you satisfied with it?

______

What are the common properties in the village?

______

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Village roads are

1. Paved – made of asphalt

2. Stabilized

3. Unpaved

4. Other (Please specify) ______

Do you have any environmental problems in your village? If so, what are they?

______

Do you have any social problems in your village, if so what are they?

______

Do you have any economic problems in your village, if so what are they?

______

Do you have agricultural problems in your village, if so what are they?

______

8. Identification of Vulnerable Groups

Are there any people who are very poor/dependent upon benevolent support from others?

______

If yes, how many and how can were reach them (write down contact information)?

Are there any woman-headed households (man is decreased, sick or away)? If yes, how many and how can we reach them (write down contact information)?

______

Are there any child-headed households? (Parents are deceased, the eldest son or daughter is the household head) if yes, how many and how can we reach them (write down contact information)?

______

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Are there any disabled people? If yes, how many and how can we reach them (write down contact information)?

______

What types of social support networks exist in your village/quarter? Could you explain us when a person needs support what types of benevolent contributions are provided to those without any other source than the support from their fellow?

______

Do you think there are any groups that could particularly benefit from the KKH?

______

Do you think there are groups that could particularly be prone to the adverse effects of the KKH?

______

Are there any school-age children who don’t go to school? If yes, please explain why they do not go to school? Are girls sent to school? If no, please explain why they are not sent to school?

______

Are there any people hose lands will be acquainted in this village?

______

9. Impacts of the KKH

What do you think about the positive impacts of the KKH?

______

What do you think about the negative impacts of the KKH?

______

How do you think the income resources/social structure have been affected by the KKH?

______

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10. Key Social Problems and Development Issues

If you could have 4 things to develop in your community, which are the four things you would choose and in what order?

______

Are there any settlements nearby the village?

______

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Annexure – 13 C

Questionnaire for Focus Group Discussion

Focus group/deep interview no: ______

District/Village/Quarter: ______

Date: ______

Conductor and Assistant: ______

Description of the person/group: ______

Total number of people in the meeting: ______

Participants ______

Sex Age Marital Status Education Occupation Other notes and number of children

Guiding questions 1. Would you please give us some information about this region? ______2. How does your group (e.g. women, elderly and farmers) experience life? ______

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3. What do you do in a normal day? ______4. What kind of problems do you have? ______5. How are your relations with other people and villages? Are there any conflicts? ______6. What do you think is the main problem in this region? ______7. How do you think can this problem be solved? Why? ______8. Do you know about the construction and up-gradation of KKH? How were you informed? ______9. Is there anything that you want to be further information? ______10. What do you think about the benefits of KKH? Do you think it should be better than the existing capacity? Why, why not? ______11. How do you think can this Highway affect the people in this area, and particularly your group? What do you think can be applied as mitigation measures? ______12. Would you like to add anything else? ______

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