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2020 Elections Recap: Great Expectations

By Nathan L. Gonzales and Jacob Rubashkin NOVEMBER 19, 2020 VOLUME 4, NO. 22 Whenever is on the ballot, things don’t go according to plan. It may only be fitting for a year such as 2020 that we’re staring at a strange combination of election results and reaction. Control of the Senate Republicans are taking victory laps while Trump is about to become the first incumbent president to lose re-election in 28 years, Democrats 116th Congress 117th Congress* maintained their House majority and gained at least one seat in the 53 Republicans, 47 Democrats 50 Republicans, 48 Demcrats Senate. Yet the post-election mood within the Democratic Party is largely funereal. The GOP euphoria is fueled by potentially keeping the Senate 2020 Elections and dramatically overperforming expectations in the House. Those Seat Change expectations were set by a majority of national, state, and district level D +1 * polls (partisan and nonpartisan, public and private) which showed the president severely underperforming in nearly every part of the country. With the benefit of election results, it’s clear that the data under- States that Switched Party Hands estimated Trump’s support once again. Democrat to Republican Republican to Democrat Rather than taking President-elect ’s victory as a reason (Doug Jones) Colorado (Cory Gardner) to turn the page from Trump, most Republicans are grateful for how (Martha McSally) the current president boosted the party’s prospects down the ballot. Meanwhile the progressive and pragmatic wings of the Democratic Party are back to fighting with each other after accomplishing their collective Upcoming Races (Jan. 5) mission of preventing Trump from getting a second term. () From a 30,000-foot level, our projection that the most likely outcome Georgia () was a Democratic trifecta in the White House, Senate, and House is still a possibility and won’t be known until early next year. Democrats have to win both competitive and expensive runoff races in Georgia on New Senators to gain control of the Senate. , R, Alabama In the race for the White House, Biden is on pace to win all of Mark Kelly, D, Arizona the states carried four years ago and five states , D, Colorado (Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Arizona, and Georgia) that Trump won in 2016. That would give Biden 306 Electoral College votes — the Roger Marshall, R, Kansas same number Trump received four years ago. Ben Ray Luján, D, New Mexico Republicans outperformed expectations in the congressional races. , R, Tennessee Trump’s stronger-than-expected presidential performance shut off , R, Wyoming virtually all of Democrats’ paths to control of the Senate, leaving the party with a lone route to control through Georgia. In the House, Republicans could see a double-digit gain of seats but fall a handful *Two Georgia races oustanding. of seats short of the majority, which is a stark contrast to pre-election projections of a double-digit Democratic gain in the House. Even though control of the Senate has not been decided, it’s clear that Washington will be functionally divided next year and there will have to be some compromise when addressing any of the major challenges the country faces.

InsideElections.com Georgia Senate Runoffs: Double Overtime By Jacob Rubashkin

The 2020 elections aren’t over yet. Republicans will hold at least 50 The Republican Senators seats in the new Senate, while Democrats will hold at least 48. With David Perdue, 70, was first elected to the US Senate in 2014 after a Democrats Joe Biden and emerging victorious in the long business career that included extended time overseas in Hong Kong presidential election, control of the chamber will come down to two and stints as the CEO of Reebok and Dollar General. Senate runoff elections in Georgia, scheduled to take place on January 5, Estimated by to be one of the wealthiest Senators — a distinction 2021, two days after the new Congress convenes. he shares with his colleague, Loeffler — Perdue had to win three elections If Democrats win both races, they will have the narrowest of working in 2014 before taking his seat. He placed first in the GOP primary, ahead of majorities in the chamber. With 50 seats, Vice President Kamala Harris Reps. , , and , as well as former state would be able to cast tie-breaking votes in Democrats’ favor. Secretary of State , but with only 31 percent of the vote he This article is the first of several on these integral Senate elections. failed to clear the threshold necessary to avoid a runoff. Over the coming weeks, we’ll be taking a closer look at the issues and Perdue narrowly defeated Kingston 51-49 percent in the runoff, and storylines motivating the races. went on to defeat Democratic nominee Nunn, a nonprofit executive and the daughter of former Sen. , 53-46 percent. Lay of the Land In the Senate, Perdue serves on the Armed Services, Banking, Budget, Joe Biden is poised to be the first Democratic presidential nominee Foreign Relations, and Aging committees. to win Georgia since in 1992, and will do so with the largest Kelly Loeffler, 50, was appointed to the Senate to replace Sen. Johnny vote share of any Democratic presidential candidate since former Isakson in January of this year after the senator resigned for health reasons. Georgia Gov. in 1980. (In 1992, Clinton won the state 43.5- She had never served in public office before, but was deeply involved in 42.9 percent, with the balance going to independent candidate Ross politics as a Republican mega-donor over the previous decade. Loeffler Perot, while Biden currently leads President Trump 49.5-49.3 percent.) was an executive at Intercontinental exchange, the firm that owns the New Biden’s apparent win is the culmination of over a decade of Democratic York Stock Exchange and is run by her husband, . hopes in the Peach State, beginning with Jim Martin’s 2008 Senate run Estimated to be the wealthiest Senator currently serving, Loeffler is (read more about that race’s runoffon page 7), and continuing through also the co-owner of the WNBA team Dream. and Jason Carter’s highly-touted 2014 runs for Senate and She was selected for the seat by Gov. , who chose her over governor, respectively, both of which resulted in 8-point defeats; Hillary President Donald Trump’s preferred pick, Rep. Doug Collins. At the Clinton’s 2016 presidential run, which saw her lose the state to Trump by time, it was widely reported that Kemp chose Loeffler because her profile just 5 points, 50-45 percent; and most recently ’ historic run was better suited to reinvigorate Republicans in the Atlanta suburbs. for governor in 2018, which fell just 3 points short of victory, 51-48 percent. Collins chose to run for the seat anyways, attacking Loeffler as In addition to Biden’s likely win this November, Democrats also insufficiently conservative. As a result, Loeffler has spent the last year, flipped the suburban Atlanta 7th District, which could be one of the and considerable resources rebranding herself as a 100 percent pro- party’s only pickups of the election cycle. Democrats also successfully Trump, conservative candidate, even running a series of ads about how defended the neighboring 6th District, another former GOP stronghold she’s “more conservative than Attilla the Hun.” in the Atlanta suburbs. Loeffler’s rightward pivot worked, as she placed 6 points ahead of In the regular Senate election, Sen. David Perdue led 49.7 Collins in the Nov. 3 all-party primary with 26 percent, securing a spot in percent to 48 percent in the Nov. 3 balloting. Libertarian candidate Shane the runoff. Hazel won 2.3 percent. In the special Senate election, Republican candidates She currently sits on the Agriculture Committee, the Health, combined for 49.4 percent of the vote, while Democratic candidates Education, Labor, and Pensions (HELP) Committee, the Veterans’ Affairs combined for 48.4 percent, with the balance going to independents and Committee, and the Joint Economic Committee. third-party candidates. That sets up two close and competitive contests. Continued on page 3

Stuart Rothenberg @InsideElections Senior Editor [email protected] .com/InsideElections Ryan Matsumoto Bradley Wascher Contributing Analyst Contributing Analyst [email protected] [email protected] Nathan L. Gonzales Jacob Rubashkin Robert Yoon Will Taylor Editor & Publisher Reporter & Analyst Contributing Reporter & Analyst Production Artist [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] @nathanlgonzales @jacobrubashkin

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2 November 19, 2020 NONPARTISAN ANALYSIS & RESEARCH Continued from page 2 , for the cardinal sin of administering an election won by a Democrat, demanding along with Georgia’s entire incoming The Democratic Challengers GOP congressional delegation that Raffensperger resign because of The Democratic candidate in the regular Senate election is 33-year-old unspecified and unevidenced elections irregularities. documentary filmmaker and investigative journalist Jon Ossoff. The fissure risks becoming an all-out conflict within the state party. Gov. Ossoff is best known for losing the 2017 special election for Georgia’s Brian Kemp, a staunch Trump supporter, aligned himself with Loeffler and 6th District, a high-profile contest early in the Trump era that became the Perdue, though that did not stop him from catching the president’s ire. Lt. most expensive House race in history. Gov. Geoff Duncan came down on Raffensperger’s side, telling CNN there The 2009 Georgetown graduate, who had worked as a Congressional were no “credible examples” of voter fraud in the state. staffer in DeKalb County Rep. ’s office, lost that election to And former GOP Sen. , the last Georgia senator to Republican Karen Handel by four points, 52-48 percent. win a runoff, also disputed that there was wholesale fraud and warned This year, Ossoff won the Democratic primary against former against internecine GOP conflict, telling , “If you’re Columbus, Ga. Mayor Teresa Tomlinson and 2018 Lt. Gov. nominee going into a runoff, you want 100 percent unification of your party.” Sarah Riggs Amico with 50.5 percent, avoiding a runoff against The danger for Loeffler and Perdue is threefold and multidirectional. Tomlinson, the second place finisher. First, they worry that failing to appear loyal to Trump could depress The Democratic candidate in the special Senate election is Rev. Raphael Republican base turnout — deadly in a runoff election where the two Warnock, the 51-year-old senior pastor at Ebenezer Baptist Church in Atlanta, senators are the sole attractions on the ticket. a historic church once led by Martin Luther King, Jr. Warnock has held that Conversely, if they go too far in alleging (without any evidence) fraud pulpit since 2005, before which he preached in New York and Baltimore. and incompetence on the part of the Secretary of State and the whole Warnock, who was the eleventh of twelve children and grew up in Georgia elections system, they risk depressing turnout because people the Savannah projects, has been involved in Georgia politics for the last may not make an effort to vote if they believe their vote won’t count. decade, but this is his first run for office. Finally, Loeffler and Perdue must grapple with the fact that they are Warnock quickly consolidated establishment support after entering now running in a state won by Biden, a state that has rejected Trump. the race in January, but struggled to boost his name recognition or If they bind themselves too tightly to Trump, especially on an issue as polling support for much of the year. By the fall, however, a combination divisive as the notion that Trump rightfully won the election, then they of TV advertising and a full court press by party heavyweights including may risk being rejected by Georgians too. former President pushed Warnock decisively ahead of the Ossoff and Warnock face their own set of challenges too. Though other Democratic candidates in the all-party primary. Georgia has now shown its ability to vote for a Democrat at the top of On Nov. 3, Warnock placed first among all candidates with 33 percent the ticket, both Senate candidates were outpaced by their Republican of the vote. Deborah Jackson, who received the second-most votes of any counterparts in their down ballot races. Democrat with 6.6 percent, had not been included in most polls; the two More importantly, they no longer have Trump at the top of the ticket candidates considered to be Warnock’s main competition, businessman Matt driving turnout. Historically, runoffs suffer from low participation. Lieberman and former US Attorney Ed Tarver, combined for just 3.3 percent. Victory is not so much about persuasion, but simply getting supporters to the polls. Trump guaranteed that would happen in November, but A Delicate Dance now Ossoff and Warnock have to do it themselves. The first two weeks of the runoff have seen Georgia Republicans Ossoff and Warnock will have to balance motivating their base engage in a delicate dance, one aimed at keeping Trump appeased while voters with not appearing out of step with the state. Loeffler and Perdue not alienating voters or depressing turnout. are already trying to brand the two Democrats as radical socialists The president continues to insist publicly that he won this year’s who would irrevocably change America for the worse, linking Ossoff election. And if one accepts that there will be a second Trump term, then to communist and Warnock to the Castro regime in Cuba. Republicans will retain control of the Senate regardless of the outcome Republicans believe similar messaging limited their losses in the Senate of the Georgia runoffs, because Vice President will be able and fueled their gains in the House nationwide. to break tie votes in a 50-50 chamber. In reality, Biden won the election, With Biden’s gains coming largely from Atlanta suburbs that had long and if Democrats win both Georgia seats, they will control the Senate, voted Republican and only in the past four years have pulled the lever for because Vice President Kamala Harris will be able to break tie votes. Democrats, Ossoff and Warnock cannot afford to lose those voters, either The most compelling argument Loeffler and Perdue have to make because they switch to Perdue and Loeffler or just stay at home entirely. is that they are the only two people standing between America and unified Democratic control of Washington. But because the president is A Look Ahead demanding absolute loyalty from his followers, even threatening to back Campaigning is already in full swing, with all four candidates on the primary challengers to GOP officeholders who acknowledge Biden’s trail and TV. Millions of dollars have already been spent, with at least tens victory, they cannot make that argument explicitly. of millions more to come, both from the campaigns and outside groups. Though the two Republicans and their allies have attempted to make It’s not clear if Trump will campaign for Loeffler and Perdue (Vice the argument implicitly, the president’s insistence that he is the real President Pence will be there this week). But both Biden and former winner has prevented Loeffler and Perdue from fully embracing that line President Barack Obama, who was the Biden campaign’s closer in of attack against their Democratic opponents. Georgia, are reportedly planning on stumping for Ossoff and Warnock. Instead, they are attempting to ingratiate themselves with Trump and With control of the Senate on the line, we can be sure that neither his supporters by attacking Georgia’s own secretary of state, Republican party will spare any expense to win.

INSIDEELECTIONS.COM November 19, 2020 3 Trump’s Surprising Gains with Minority Voters By Ryan Matsumoto

One of the first signs that we were in for a long election week was border, however. Harris County is the largest county by population when Miami-Dade County, Florida released its first vote totals. Although statewide and includes the city of . Biden won Harris County Joe Biden won Miami-Dade County 53-46 percent, this was a substantial by 13 points, a slight improvement over Clinton’s 12-point win in 2016. decline from Hillary Clinton’s 64-34 percent margin in 2016. Although the county as a whole didn’t shift much in either direction, The fact that President Donald Trump made such significant inroads there was a lot going on under the hood. According to precinct data with Cuban American voters in Florida’s largest county suggested that gathered and mapped by J. Miles Coleman at Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball, he would win the state easily. This meant we would likely need to wait some of Trump’s strongest gains versus 2016 were in the majority Latino for the midwestern battlegrounds to finish counting their votes before 29th Congressional District and parts of the plurality Latino 18th District. getting a call for the entire presidential race. And that’s exactly what At the same time, Biden made impressive gains in the whiter and more happened. affluent 2nd and 7th districts. Although Trump lost the election, he improved with minority voters In September, we identified Democratic gains with suburban in many areas of the country beyond Miami. And that gives both parties college-educated voters as a major reason why Texas could be something to ponder as they think about the future. competitive this cycle. In the end, it appears that Biden got close to what he needed from this demographic. Biden flipped Hays and Florida Williamson counties, two fast-growing locales outside Austin. He also Miami-Dade County shifted 22 points to the right from 2016 to 2020, did well in the suburbs of Dallas, making double-digit gains in Collin the highest among Florida’s 67 counties. This surge was largely fueled and Denton counties, coming within single digits in each. by Trump’s increased strength with Cuban American voters, who may But ultimately, Trump made major gains of his own with Latino have been won over by the Republican Party’s strong anti- voters, putting Blue Texas out of reach this year. messaging this cycle. The red wave in southeast Florida didn’t stop at the presidential level — Republicans also flipped two House seats in Orange County, plurality Cuban districts (Florida’s 26th and 27th). An important aspect of Trump’s gains with minority voters is that But Miami-Dade was not the sole reason why Biden lost Florida. Even they were not limited to just the battleground states of Florida and Texas. if Biden had matched Clinton’s 30 point margin in Miami-Dade this year, And they weren’t limited to just Latino voters. he still would have lost statewide by more than 100,000 votes. One key example is Orange County in Southern California. In 2016, Trump also made inroads in other heavily Latino counties across Clinton won this diverse, highly-educated county by 9 points, the first the state. Osceola County, a majority Latino suburban county outside time a Democrat had won it since 1936. This year, Biden also won the of Orlando, voted for Biden by 14 points, a shift of 11 points to the right county by 9 points. But as in Harris County, Texas, there were many from Clinton’s 25-point margin in 2016. Hendry County, a more rural competing shifts happening under the hood. majority Latino county in south central Florida, voted for Trump by 23 Within Orange County, the city with the biggest rightward shift was points, a shift of 9 points to the right from his 14-point margin in 2016. Westminster, which went from Clinton +15 to Trump +9. According These two counties show that Trump’s gains with Florida Latinos were to Census estimates, Westminster is plurality Asian and has a large not just limited to Cuban Americans — Osceola is plurality Puerto Rican Vietnamese population. Precinct maps from The and while Hendry is plurality Mexican-American. confirm that Trump made big gains in the heavily Vietnamese precincts of Little Saigon. While Vietnamese voters have Texas historically leaned Republican, they trended more Democratic in 2016. Trump also made impressive gains with Latino voters in Texas, According to Terry Nguyen’s reporting for , some potential reasons especially in the Rio Grande Valley and neighboring areas along the for Trump’s gains with Vietnamese voters include his fierce anti- southern border. Starr County, which is about 96 percent Latino, had the communist / anti-socialist messaging, his tough talk on China, and the biggest 2016 to 2020 shift of any county nationwide, shifting 55 points impact of conservative Vietnamese media. to the right, from a 60-point Clinton landslide to a narrow 5-point Biden Trump also gained ground in neighboring Garden Grove, which victory. Neighboring Zapata County, which is about 95 percent Latino, went from Clinton +23 to Biden +1. Garden Grove is also very diverse, at voted for Trump by 5 points after voting for Clinton by 33 points. The about 41 percent Asian and 37 percent Latino. Another city where Trump total number of votes cast increased 49 percent in Starr County and 23 gained was Santa Ana, which is 77 percent Latino and moved from percent in Zapata County, dashing Democratic hopes that the “sleeping Clinton +52 to Biden +39. giant” of Latino non-voters would work in their favor. While Trump made gains in many of the majority-minority cities in There are many potential reasons why these heavily Latino Orange County, Biden made significant gains in other parts of the county. counties along the border became much more friendly for Trump this In particular, Biden flipped traditionally Republican Laguna Niguel, year. Reporting from The New York Times suggests that the region’s Laguna Hills, and Mission Viejo, which all narrowly voted for Trump dependence on oil & gas jobs may have contributed. The Wall Street in 2016. These three cities are whiter, more highly-educated, and more Journal concluded that the economy was a big factor. Social affluent than the county as a whole. This matches the nationwide trend of religious Latinos also may have helped. of Biden making strong gains with college-educated suburbanites. Trump’s gains with Latino voters in Texas weren’t limited to the Continued on page 5

4 November 19, 2020 NONPARTISAN ANALYSIS & RESEARCH At Long Last, Senate Results

Even though control of the Senate is hanging in the balance with the two County (51-47 percent loss in 2018 vs. 52-48 percent loss in 2020) but lost runoffs in Georgia, we finally have results everywhere else. Here’s a brief significant ground in Pima County (including Tucson). It was 57-41 percent summary of what happened in key Senate contests around the country. for Sinema two years ago compared to 60-40 percent for Kelly this year. Arizona has two Democratic senators for the first time since the early 1950s. Alabama. Tommy Tuberville (R) over Sen. Doug Jones (D) 60%- 40%. GOP Takeover. Ever since Jones won the Dec. 2017 special election 50- Colorado. John Hickenlooper (D) over Sen. Cory Gardner 48 percent over Republican Roy Moore, the Democrat has been considered (R) 54%-44%. Democratic Takeover. Republicans were counting on an underdog. According to the analysis, Jones was going to be more President Trump doing as well or better than his 5-point loss in 2016 to vulnerable in a presidential cycle when President Donald Trump was at the decrease the number of crossover voters Gardner needed to survive. top of the ballot and more voters turned out. That’s exactly what happened. While Trump held his own in traditionally Republican states and held Nearly a million more people voted in the 2020 general election compared down his loss margin in the battlegrounds, he got swamped by 13 points to the special election (2.3 million to 1.35 million) and Trump won the state in Colorado. The senator overperformed by a little but still lost by 10 62-37 percent at the top of the ballot. That was more than enough to help the points. In the end, voters didn’t care enough about the former governor’s former Auburn head football coach over the top against the incumbent. A reprimand by the state ethics commission, and partisanship won the mid-October poll for the Tuberville campaign had the challenger up by 15 day. The Democratic presidential nominee won Colorado for the fourth points while a mid-October poll for the Jones campaign showed the senator consecutive cycle and Trump’s 42 percent showing was the worst by a ahead by a single point. Obviously one of those was closer than the other. GOP nominee since 1992, when President George H.W. Bush received 36 percent as garnered 23 percent. If there was any doubt, Alaska. Sen. Dan Sullivan (R) re-elected to second term over Al Colorado is not a competitive state in the near future. Gross (I) 54%-41%. GOP hold. Pre-election polling showed The Last Frontier hosting competitive races for president and for the Senate, but . Sen. (R) re-elected to second term over Theresa neither ended up being particularly close. Trump won Alaska by about 10 Greenfield (D) 52%-45%. GOP hold.This was the agreed upon toss-up in points over Biden (compared to his 14-point win in 2016) and the senator the weeks leading up to Election Day and the late-October survey by Selzer won re-election by 13 points. Sullivan had the advantage throughout the & Co. for the Des Moines Register, which showed Trump ahead by 7 points race, but both parties agreed that the race was competitive in the months and Ernst ahead by 4 points, was widely treated as an outlier. Yet that poll leading up to Election Day. Gross’ attempt to break out of the partisan was pretty darn accurate with the president’s 9-point victory and the senator mold by running as an independent (with Democratic support) didn’t winning by 7 points. Trump’s ability to nearly recreate his 2016 performance really work as he underperformed Biden by a couple points. boosted Ernst and helped Republicans gain at least one House seat (and potentially two, depending on the outcome of a very close race in the 2nd Arizona. Mark Kelly (D) over Sen. Martha McSally (R) 51%-49%. District). Ernst’s win and margin of victory was a clear sign that Democrats’ Democratic Takeover. Former astronaut Kelly led this race from wire to path to Senate control was much more narrow than previously thought. wire and handed McSally her second Senate defeat in two cycles. In 2018, she lost 50-48 percent against Democrat in the state’s other Kansas. Rep. Roger Marshall (R) over Barbara Bollier (D) 54%-42% seat. McSally needed Trump to pull her across the finish line and he lost the for ’ open seat. GOP hold. This is one of the clearest examples state narrowly, 49.4-49.1 percent. McSally held her own in growing Maricopa Continued on page 6

Continued from page 4 The Bottom Line Nonetheless, it is clear that Trump made some surprising gains with Diversity of Minority Voters minority voters in many different parts of the country. And that raises When talking about minority voters, it’s important to note the interesting questions about the future of both political parties. large amount of diversity within minority groups. Cuban Americans Republicans are already thinking about ways to make further inroads are different from Puerto Ricans. Vietnamese Americans are different with minority voters, especially as the country continues to become from Indian Americans. There are also major differences between more diverse every day. Florida Sen. has advocated for the first-generation minorities and their second and third-generation party to build “a multiethnic, multiracial, working-class coalition.” A key counterparts. And there are differences between minorities who live in question is whether the 2020 movement was centered around Trump or majority-minority areas and minorities who live in majority-white areas. the beginning of a partisan trend. Although Trump made gains with minority voters in some parts Democrats had hoped that the country’s changing demographics of the country, Biden turned in very impressive performances with would ultimately give them a long-term advantage. A Republican minority voters in other locales. In Arizona, strong margins and turnout coalition based on white voters without a college degree (a shrinking from Latino voters in Maricopa County and Native American voters in share of the electorate) would struggle to win future elections in a Apache County were crucial in helping him carry the state. And while diversifying America. But a Republican coalition that combines non- Trump may have gained a few percentage points with Black voters, they college whites with a significant share of working class minorities would still voted overwhelmingly for Biden across the nation. be much more formidable.

INSIDEELECTIONS.COM November 19, 2020 5 Continued from page 5 they were at their peak, there was talk about whether they could knock of how pre-election expectations did not match the results. Concerned about off the senator, who was presumed to be running an underwhelming Marshall’s ability to win after the damaging GOP primary and Trump campaign. Hyde-Smith underperformed the president by a significant struggling to reach his 20-point win from 2016, Republicans spent tens of margin, but Trump’s 30-point victory at the top of the ballot was more millions of dollars on the race. But in the end, the president won by 16 points than enough to help her across the finish line. and Marshall by 12 points. If GOP strategists really thought Marshall was going to win by double-digits, they would likely have diverted resources Montana. Sen. (R) re-elected to a second term to Michigan or New Mexico, where their challengers could have used the over Steve Bullock (D). GOP hold. Republicans consistently showed funds. While Bollier was lauded as one of the best Democratic challengers in the senator with the lead over the Democratic governor, but no one was the country, she received a smaller percentage of the vote than Independent seeing or expecting the final margins. While pre-election polls showed Greg Orman, who ran against Roberts six years ago with the backing of the Trump struggling to match his 20-point victory in 2016 and winning Democratic Party. A late-October poll by co/efficient for Keep Kansas Great the state by single digits this year, the president ended up winning PAC showed Marshall with a 12-point advantage was an outlier, but turned Montana by more than 16 points. That dashed any hopes Democrats out to be one of the more accurate surveys. had of Bullock winning and Daines ended up winning by a whopping 10 points. It’s not terribly surprising based on the presidential race four Kentucky. Sen. Mitch McConnell (R) re-elected to seventh term years ago but was a shock based on the pre-election data. over Amy McGrath (D) 58%-38%. GOP hold. In spite of all the time, money, and attention spent on Kentucky, the majority leader’s re-election New Mexico. Rep. Ben Ray Luján (D) over Mark Ronchetti (R) race was never really in doubt. It looked like his margin of victory would 52%-46% for Tom Udall’s open seat. Democratic hold. After Clinton’s hover in the high single-digits, but in the end, McConnell ended with 8-point victory in 2016, New Mexico was never considered a presidential his highest re-election percentage since 2002 and second-highest of his battleground this cycle and the Senate race never cracked the conversation Senate career. Trump’s 26-point victory at the top of the ballot helped of truly competitive races. But Trump managed not to crater in the state and was just a few points off of his 30-point victory four years ago. With (he lost by 10 points, just 2 percent worse than in 2016) and the Senate race back-to-back high-profile losses for the House and Senate it’s not clear ended up being closer than expected. Still, Republicans haven’t won a what McGrath’s next move might be, but it probably doesn’t involve Senate race in the Land of Enchantment in nearly 20 years. winning elective office in Kentucky. The only question left for McConnell is whether he’ll be majority leader for another two years. . Sen. (R) re-elected to second term over Cal Cunningham (D) 49%-47%. GOP hold. This is a key state . Sen. (R) re-elected to fifth term over Sara where pre-election expectations and results didn’t match up. It looked Gideon (D) 51%-43%. GOP hold. Collins’ victory wasn’t a complete like Biden and Cunningham had a narrow advantage, even considering shocker, but the margin, including avoiding the ranked choice voting the latter’s extramarital affair which came to light late in the campaign. process, was a legitimate surprise in the face of virtually all of the pre- Both Cunningham and Tillis underperformed their presidential election data and intelligence. Even the few pre-election polls showing nominees, but the senator prevailed in a close race. Democratic Gov. Roy Collins with a narrow edge had her falling short of 50 percent and in Cooper’s closer-than-expected win (52-47 percent) is further evidence danger of losing in the subsequent ranked choice process. In the end, that the pre-election polls underestimated the GOP slate. Collins proved her mettle once again, even as Trump lost to Biden at the top of the ballot, 54-44 percent. It’s a remarkable win for Collins that South Carolina. Sen. (R) re-elected to a leaves Democrats wondering what happened. fourth term over Jaime Harrison (D) 55%-44%. GOP hold. Harrison raised more than $100 million and lost by double-digits. That doesn’t Michigan. Sen. (D) re-elected to second term over mean he raised too much money but it shows that partisanship might John James (R) 50%-48%. Democratic hold. The good news for James be a problem that money can’t fix. While pre-election polling showed is that he improved on his 45.8 percent performance in 2018 with a Trump significant lagging from four years ago, the president followed 48.3 percent showing this year, but it wasn’t enough to defeat Peters. up his 15-point victory in 2016 with a 12-point victory this year. That Republicans were confident in James’ ability to outperform Trump, was more than enough to help Graham win another term. There’s no and the president kept it close at the top of the ballot, but James only amount of money that was going to help Harrison overcome that pull did about half of 1 percent better than Trump. The race was closer than from the top of the ticket. Harrison’s attempts to boost Constitution Party Democrats expected, but Peters pulled out a second term. candidate Bill Bledsoe also fell flat, with the conservative taking just 1 percent, far less than the 6-7 percent the Harrison campaign had hoped. Minnesota. Sen. (DFL) elected to a full term over Jason Lewis (R) 49%-44%. Democratic hold. Biden expanded Hillary Texas. Sen. (R) re-elected to a fourth term over M.J. Clinton’s narrow victory four years ago into a significant 7-point win this Hegar (D) 54%-44%. GOP hold. Even as Texas emerged as a presidential year. That was more than enough cushion for Smith against Lewis, who battleground, Hegar was running at least a few points behind the was always underfunded and largely ignored by both parties for the senator. In the end, the presidential race wasn’t particularly close (Trump entire cycle. won by nearly 6 points) and Cornyn won by nearly 10 points. After the 2020 margins and Beto O’Rourke’s high-profile loss in 2018, the Mississippi. Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith (R) elected to full term bar will be presumably higher before everyone declares Texas to be a over Mike Espy (D) 55%-43%. GOP hold. When Democrats thought battleground again.

6 November 19, 2020 NONPARTISAN ANALYSIS & RESEARCH A Brief History of Georgia Runoffs, and Why This Time May Be Different

By Jacob Rubashkin

On his way to becoming the first person to defeat an incumbent Collins’ 47.6 percent, but Baker would go on to win an easy runoff president since Bill Clinton in 1992, Joe Biden also replicated another victory, 56.8 percent to 43.2 percent. one of the Arkansas governor’s feats: winning Georgia, something no The last time a Democrat won a statewide runoff was in 1998. Lauren Democratic presidential candidate has done in 28 years. “Bubba” McDonald had been appointed to a seat on the PSC by Gov. Zell Along with Biden’s narrow win — confirmed by hand recount this Miller and faced Republican Jim Cole in a special election. In the general week — Democrats also picked up a House seat in the Atlanta suburbs, election, McDonald finished just under 50 percent, with 49.6 percent to and held incumbent GOP Sen. David Perdue to less than 50 percent of Cole’s 42.1 percent, but cruised to a 30-point win in the runoff. the vote. Nearly 1.3 million people voted in the 1998 general, but just 114,000 That last achievement has triggered Georgia’s unique runoff law. turned out for the runoff. McDonald would later switch parties and now Georgia is the only state where general elections are subject to an serves as a Republican. (He stood for re-election this year but fell 5,115 absolute majority threshold, meaning that for a candidate to win outright votes shy of a majority, and will face Democrat Daniel Blackman in his in November, they must capture “50 percent plus one” votes. If no own runoff, also on Jan. 5.) candidate does so, the top two vote-getters proceed to a runoff, this time In 2006, Democrat David Burgess, the first African American to serve scheduled for January 5, 2021. on the PSC, faced Republican Chuck Eaton for his seat. Burgess placed Georgia’s other Senate seat is also headed for overtime. The special first in the November general, 48.8 percent to 46.3 percent. But Eaton election to succeed Sen. was conducted as a “jungle won in the runoff, 51.8 percent to 48.2 percent. primary,” in which all candidates from all parties appeared on the same ballot in November. If no candidate receives an absolute majority a The 2008 Collapse runoff is triggered. Appointed-Sen. Kelly Loeffler, a Republican, received In 2008, as Barack Obama won a resounding victory in the presidential just 26 percent of the vote, while Democrat , senior race and Democrats picked up eight Senate seats, GOP Sen. Saxby pastor at the Ebenezer Baptist Church in Atlanta, won 33 percent, so the Chambliss faced a spirited challenge from Democratic state Rep. Jim Martin. two will face off in January. Martin won 46.8 percent in the general election, holding Chambliss to In the regular election, Perdue finished with 49.7 percent, while 49.8 percent and forcing a runoff. Democrat Jon Ossoff won 48 percent (Libertarian candidate Shane Hazel But in the Dec. 2 runoff, Chambliss won a dominant 57-43 percent took 2.3 percent). So Georgia will see two Senate runoffs, conducted victory. simultaneously. The story was the same in 2008’s other runoff, for a seat on the Georgia’s general election runoff law dates back to the mid-1960s, and Public Service Commission. In that race, Democrat Jim Powell actually in the modern era the system has been largely unkind to Democrats. led Bubba McDonald, by then a Republican, by 47.9 percent to 47.2 Georgia’s Secretary of State website keeps records of all statewide percent in the November election. But in the runoff, McDonald elections going back to 1988. In those 30 years, there have been eight performed as well as Chambliss, defeating Powell 57 percent to 43 statewide general or special election runoffs. Democrats have won just percent. one of them. Ask any Georgia Democrat about runoffs, and they will bring up Moreover, Democrats have not won a single statewide election in 2008. Even a great national environment for Democrats, the thinking Georgia since 2006. But that doesn’t guarantee GOP success this time. goes, wasn’t enough to make a Georgia runoff competitive. The 2008 races were the last statewide runoffs for a decade, and A History of Misses largely informed how members of both parties saw the state’s politics. Democrats’ bad luck began in 1992, when Democratic Sen. unexpectedly fell just short of 50 percent in his re-election How 2018 Changed Things campaign against GOP nominee , the former director of In 2018, Republican Brian Kemp narrowly avoided a runoff with the . Democrat Stacey Abrams, who captured national attention for her In the Nov. 3 general election, Fowler led with 49.2 percent to attempt to become the first Black woman governor in U.S. history. Kemp Coverdell’s 47.7 percent (Libertarian Jim Hudson took 3.1 percent). finished with 50.2 percent of the vote. Although Clinton won the state, he did so with just 43.5 percent against But GOP secretary of state nominee Brad Raffensperger wasn’t as lucky. President George H.W. Bush and Ross Perot. Raffensperger and Chuck Eaton, the Public Service Commissioner In the Nov. 24 runoff, in which 1 million fewer voters participated, who won the 2006 runoff, were both forced into overtime competitions Fowler lost to Coverdell, who took 50.7 percent to the incumbent’s 49.3 against their Democratic opponents, former US Rep. John Barrow and percent. Lindy Miller, respectively. That same year, Democrats lost another statewide runoff, for a In 2008, the conventional wisdom was that Democrats were so happy seat on the Public Service Commission. In the Nov. 3 general election, with their nationwide victories that they weren’t motivated to turn Republican Bobby Baker took 48.3 percent to Democrat John Frank Continued on page 8

INSIDEELECTIONS.COM November 19, 2020 7 Continued from page 7 Control of the House out for a December special election. It didn’t help that Obama, whose 116th Congress 117th Congress 47-percent total in the state was the best showing since favorite son 233 Democrats, 201 Republicans, TBD Jimmy Carter in 1980, was no longer at the top of the ticket and did not 1 Libertarian campaign for Martin because he wanted to stay above the partisan fray 2020 Elections as he stepped into office. Seat Change Projected Range R +9 R +10-12 Republicans, meanwhile, were smarting from their losses and intent Republicans need a net gain of 17 seats for a majority on denying Democrats a 60-seat supermajority in the Senate. Turnout Districts that Flipped Party Hands dropped by nearly half from the general, but while Chambliss only saw Democrat Republican Independent his raw vote total decline by 639,064 votes, Martin, already behind, saw to Republican to Democrat to Republican his decline by 847,470. California’s 39th Georgia’s 7th Michigan’s 3rd In 2018, Democrats won big nationwide too, so you might imagine California’s 48th North Carolina’s 2nd Florida’s 27th North Carolina’s 6th their voters would be similarly unmotivated to turn out for another Florida’s 26th election. And just like Jim Martin no longer had the star power of Obama Iowa’s 1st boosting turnout from the top of the ticket, Barrow and Miller didn’t Minnesota’s 7th have the benefit of running on the same ticket as Stacey Abrams. New Mexico’s 2nd But 2018 was no repeat of 2008. New York’s 11th Oklahoma’s 5th In the Secretary of State race, Raffensperger had won 49.1 percent South Carolina’s 1st to Barrow’s 48.7 percent in November. In the Dec. 4 runoff, in which Utah’s 4th turnout was just 37 percent of November, Raffensperger won a close Uncalled Races Categorized by Leading Party contest with 51.9 percent to Barrow’s 48.1 percent. Raffensperger’s raw Republican Flips from Democrat Democratic vote dropped 1,141,733, while Barrow’s dropped 1,181,261, a level of Holds to Republican Holds California’s 25th California’s 21st parity entirely unlike in 2008. New York’s 1st Iowa’s 2nd And in the Public Service Commision race, Eaton took 49.7 percent New York’s 24th New York’s 22nd to Miller’s 47.6 percent in November, and went on to win 51.8 percent in New House Members the runoff, where Miller actually increased her vote share to 48.2 percent. , R, Alabama's 1st , R, Minnesota's 7th Eaton’s raw vote fell by 1,159,103, a greater dropoff than Miller’s delta of Barry Moore, R, Alabama's 2nd , D, Missouri's 1st 1,130,753. , R, California's 8th , R, Montana At-Large Put another way, Miller’s share of the two-party vote increased from , R, California's 39th , R, New Mexico's 2nd the general, where it was 47.5 percent, to the runoff, where it was 48.25 , R, California's 48th , D, New Mexico's 3rd percent, the first time in two decades that happened to a Democrat. While Democrats lost both races, they were heartened by the fact , R, California's 50th , R, New York’s 2nd that both races remained very close, despite occurring in December and , D, California's 53rd , R, New York's 11th without Abrams at the top of the ticket. , R, Colorado's 3rd , D, New York's 15th , R, Florida's 3rd , D, New York's 16th January 5, 2021 Scott Franklin, R, Florida's 15th , D, New York's 17th With Republicans currently holding 50 seats in the Senate, and , R, Florida's 19th Deborah Ross, D, North Carolina's 2nd Democrats holding 48, control of the chamber will come down to the Carlos Giménez, R, Florida's 26th , D, North Carolina's 6th runoffs in Perdue’s and Loeffler’s races. If Democrats win both, after , R, Florida's 27th , R, North Carolina's 11th winning the presidency, they would have the barest of a majority despite , D, Georgia's 5th , R, Oklahoma's 5th falling short in a dozen races on Nov. 3. , D, Georgia's 7th , R, Oregon's 2nd The conventional wisdom holds that Perdue and Loeffler would be , R, Georgia's 9th , R, South Carolina's 1st heavy favorites in their respective races, due in large part to Democrats’ dismal track record in Georgia runoffs. , Georgia's 14th , R, Tennessee's 1st But it’s impossible to deny that things are shifting in the Peach State. , D, Hawaii's 2nd , R, Texas' 4th Biden won Georgia — the first Democrat to do so since Clinton in 1992 , D, ' 3rd , R, Texas' 11th — and his total vote share will be the highest since Carter in 1980. , R, Illinois' 15th , R, Texas' 13th And Biden has already made clear he won’t stay away from the Frank Mrvan, D, Indiana's 1st , R, Texas' 17th runoffs like Obama did in Martin’s 2008 race. (For his part, Obama is , R, Indiana's 5th , R, Texas' 22nd expected to campaign in Georgia this time around, and served as the , R, Iowa's 1st , R, Texas' 23rd Biden team’s closer in the final days of the presidential election here.) , R, Iowa's 4th , R, Texas' 24th In 2018, Georgia Democrats showed they would turn out even for , R, Kansas' 1st , R, Utah's 1st lower-profile special elections and after they had already won large Jake LaTurner, R, Kansas' 2nd , R, Utah's 4th victories nationwide. With control of Washington, DC on the line, these runoffs will be , D, Massachusetts’ 4th , R, Virginia's 5th anything but low-profile, and it could be that 2021 is the year Georgia , R, Michigan’s 3rd , Washington's 10th Democrats finally chase away the ghosts of 2008 once and for all. Lisa McClain, R, Michigan’s 10th Scott Fitzgerald, Wisconsin's 5th

8 November 19, 2020 NONPARTISAN ANALYSIS & RESEARCH