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2020 Elections Recap: Great Expectations

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This issue brought to you by 2020 Elections Recap: Great Expectations By Nathan L. Gonzales and Jacob Rubashkin NOVEMBER 19, 2020 VOLUME 4, NO. 22 Whenever Donald Trump is on the ballot, things don’t go according to plan. It may only be fitting for a year such as 2020 that we’re staring at a strange combination of election results and reaction. Control of the Senate Republicans are taking victory laps while Trump is about to become the first incumbent president to lose re-election in 28 years, Democrats 116th Congress 117th Congress* maintained their House majority and gained at least one seat in the 53 Republicans, 47 Democrats 50 Republicans, 48 Demcrats Senate. Yet the post-election mood within the Democratic Party is largely funereal. The GOP euphoria is fueled by potentially keeping the Senate 2020 Elections and dramatically overperforming expectations in the House. Those Seat Change expectations were set by a majority of national, state, and district level D +1 * polls (partisan and nonpartisan, public and private) which showed the president severely underperforming in nearly every part of the country. With the benefit of election results, it’s clear that the data under- States that Switched Party Hands estimated Trump’s support once again. Democrat to Republican Republican to Democrat Rather than taking President-elect Joe Biden’s victory as a reason Alabama (Doug Jones) Colorado (Cory Gardner) to turn the page from Trump, most Republicans are grateful for how Arizona (Martha McSally) the current president boosted the party’s prospects down the ballot. Meanwhile the progressive and pragmatic wings of the Democratic Party are back to fighting with each other after accomplishing their collective Upcoming Races (Jan. 5) mission of preventing Trump from getting a second term. Georgia (David Perdue) From a 30,000-foot level, our projection that the most likely outcome Georgia (Kelly Loeffler) was a Democratic trifecta in the White House, Senate, and House is still a possibility and won’t be known until early next year. Democrats have to win both competitive and expensive runoff races in Georgia on January 5 New Senators to gain control of the Senate. Tommy Tuberville, R, Alabama In the race for the White House, Biden is on pace to win all of Mark Kelly, D, Arizona the states Hillary Clinton carried four years ago and five states John Hickenlooper, D, Colorado (Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Arizona, and Georgia) that Trump won in 2016. That would give Biden 306 Electoral College votes — the Roger Marshall, R, Kansas same number Trump received four years ago. Ben Ray Luján, D, New Mexico Republicans outperformed expectations in the congressional races. Bill Hagerty, R, Tennessee Trump’s stronger-than-expected presidential performance shut off Cynthia Lummis, R, Wyoming virtually all of Democrats’ paths to control of the Senate, leaving the party with a lone route to control through Georgia. In the House, Republicans could see a double-digit gain of seats but fall a handful *Two Georgia races oustanding. of seats short of the majority, which is a stark contrast to pre-election projections of a double-digit Democratic gain in the House. Even though control of the Senate has not been decided, it’s clear that Washington will be functionally divided next year and there will have to be some compromise when addressing any of the major challenges the country faces. InsideElections.com Georgia Senate Runoffs: Double Overtime By Jacob Rubashkin The 2020 elections aren’t over yet. Republicans will hold at least 50 The Republican Senators seats in the new Senate, while Democrats will hold at least 48. With David Perdue, 70, was first elected to the US Senate in 2014 after a Democrats Joe Biden and Kamala Harris emerging victorious in the long business career that included extended time overseas in Hong Kong presidential election, control of the chamber will come down to two and stints as the CEO of Reebok and Dollar General. Senate runoff elections in Georgia, scheduled to take place on January 5, Estimated by Roll Call to be one of the wealthiest Senators — a distinction 2021, two days after the new Congress convenes. he shares with his colleague, Loeffler — Perdue had to win three elections If Democrats win both races, they will have the narrowest of working in 2014 before taking his seat. He placed first in the GOP primary, ahead of majorities in the chamber. With 50 seats, Vice President Kamala Harris Reps. Jack Kingston, Phil Gingrey, and Paul Broun, as well as former state would be able to cast tie-breaking votes in Democrats’ favor. Secretary of State Karen Handel, but with only 31 percent of the vote he This article is the first of several on these integral Senate elections. failed to clear the threshold necessary to avoid a runoff. Over the coming weeks, we’ll be taking a closer look at the issues and Perdue narrowly defeated Kingston 51-49 percent in the runoff, and storylines motivating the races. went on to defeat Democratic nominee Nunn, a nonprofit executive and the daughter of former Sen. Sam Nunn, 53-46 percent. Lay of the Land In the Senate, Perdue serves on the Armed Services, Banking, Budget, Joe Biden is poised to be the first Democratic presidential nominee Foreign Relations, and Aging committees. to win Georgia since Bill Clinton in 1992, and will do so with the largest Kelly Loeffler, 50, was appointed to the Senate to replace Sen. Johnny vote share of any Democratic presidential candidate since former Isakson in January of this year after the senator resigned for health reasons. Georgia Gov. Jimmy Carter in 1980. (In 1992, Clinton won the state 43.5- She had never served in public office before, but was deeply involved in 42.9 percent, with the balance going to independent candidate Ross politics as a Republican mega-donor over the previous decade. Loeffler Perot, while Biden currently leads President Trump 49.5-49.3 percent.) was an executive at Intercontinental exchange, the firm that owns the New Biden’s apparent win is the culmination of over a decade of Democratic York Stock Exchange and is run by her husband, Jeffrey Sprecher. hopes in the Peach State, beginning with Jim Martin’s 2008 Senate run Estimated to be the wealthiest Senator currently serving, Loeffler is (read more about that race’s runoff on page 7), and continuing through also the co-owner of the WNBA team Atlanta Dream. Michelle Nunn and Jason Carter’s highly-touted 2014 runs for Senate and She was selected for the seat by Gov. Brian Kemp, who chose her over governor, respectively, both of which resulted in 8-point defeats; Hillary President Donald Trump’s preferred pick, Rep. Doug Collins. At the Clinton’s 2016 presidential run, which saw her lose the state to Trump by time, it was widely reported that Kemp chose Loeffler because her profile just 5 points, 50-45 percent; and most recently Stacey Abrams’ historic run was better suited to reinvigorate Republicans in the Atlanta suburbs. for governor in 2018, which fell just 3 points short of victory, 51-48 percent. Collins chose to run for the seat anyways, attacking Loeffler as In addition to Biden’s likely win this November, Democrats also insufficiently conservative. As a result, Loeffler has spent the last year, flipped the suburban Atlanta 7th District, which could be one of the and considerable resources rebranding herself as a 100 percent pro- party’s only pickups of the election cycle. Democrats also successfully Trump, conservative candidate, even running a series of ads about how defended the neighboring 6th District, another former GOP stronghold she’s “more conservative than Attilla the Hun.” in the Atlanta suburbs. Loeffler’s rightward pivot worked, as she placed 6 points ahead of In the regular Senate election, Sen. David Perdue led Jon Ossoff 49.7 Collins in the Nov. 3 all-party primary with 26 percent, securing a spot in percent to 48 percent in the Nov. 3 balloting. Libertarian candidate Shane the runoff. Hazel won 2.3 percent. In the special Senate election, Republican candidates She currently sits on the Agriculture Committee, the Health, combined for 49.4 percent of the vote, while Democratic candidates Education, Labor, and Pensions (HELP) Committee, the Veterans’ Affairs combined for 48.4 percent, with the balance going to independents and Committee, and the Joint Economic Committee. third-party candidates. That sets up two close and competitive contests. Continued on page 3 Stuart Rothenberg @InsideElections Senior Editor [email protected] facebook.com/InsideElections Ryan Matsumoto Bradley Wascher Contributing Analyst Contributing Analyst [email protected] [email protected] Nathan L. Gonzales Jacob Rubashkin Robert Yoon Will Taylor Editor & Publisher Reporter & Analyst Contributing Reporter & Analyst Production Artist [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] @nathanlgonzales @jacobrubashkin 810 7th Street NE • Washington, DC 20002 • 202-546-2822 Copyright 2020, Inside Elections LLC. All rights reserved. 2 November 19, 2020 NONPARTISAN ANALYSIS & RESEARCH Continued from page 2 Brad Raffensperger, for the cardinal sin of administering an election won by a Democrat, demanding along with Georgia’s entire incoming The Democratic Challengers GOP congressional delegation that Raffensperger resign because of The Democratic candidate in the regular Senate election is 33-year-old unspecified and unevidenced elections irregularities. documentary filmmaker and investigative journalist Jon Ossoff. The fissure risks becoming an all-out conflict within the state party. Gov. Ossoff is best known for losing the 2017 special election for Georgia’s Brian Kemp, a staunch Trump supporter, aligned himself with Loeffler and 6th District, a high-profile contest early in the Trump era that became the Perdue, though that did not stop him from catching the president’s ire.
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