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March 2020 Primary Election Wrap-Up One of 14 States Holding

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March 2020 Primary Election Wrap-Up One of 14 states holding presidential primary contests yesterday as well as over one hundred congressional and legislative races, California sought to bolster its national clout and have more influence on the Democratic nominating process by moving its primary from June to March. While results will not be certified by the Secretary of State for over a month, we can say with confidence that the March 3rd California Primary was one for the books. Amid a host of recent changes to California’s voting laws complicating the process, over 15 counties reported technical problems including connectivity issues with the statewide voter registration database resulting in long lines and overloaded voting systems. County election officials largely cited issues related to a number of changes aimed at expanding voter participation, including the ability for prospective voters to register up until 8 p.m. on election day at any location where ballots were accepted and No Party Preference voter registration increases associated with the automatic registration under the Department of Motor Vehicle’s Motor Voter Program that required those voters to take an extra step if they wanted to weigh in on a partisan primary. And while the primary was earlier, many Democratic mail-in voters held on to their ballots awaiting outcomes in earlier primaries and caucuses, which will inevitably further delay the final count. In terms of the widely anticipated Presidential Primary, with a number of Democratic candidates dropping out of the race just ahead of the California primary and overall fervor of California voters wanting change at the federal level in a state focused on pushing back on the policies of President Donald Trump at every turn, it was a hotly contested race to secure the 15 percent support statewide to be eligible for a portion of the state’s 415 delegates. At its core, California retains the most delegates in the nation, placing it with greater importance in helping to decide the nominee. Bernie Sanders at 33 percent and a surging Joe Biden at 24.2 percent appear to be the clear frontrunners early this morning in the race for the Democratic nomination, with Michael Bloomberg trailing at 14.8 percent. Despite losing the nomination to Hillary Clinton in 2016, Sanders continued to invest his time and efforts in California. He opened a host of field offices across the state, including in the often left behind Central Valley, and feverishly pursued younger and Latino voters who make up 40 percent of the state’s population aggressively. Biden’s surge appears to have been, in part, a result of his win in South Carolina days before California’s primary and on the heels of his moderate rivals Pete Buttigieg and Amy Klobuchar ending their campaigns and endorsing the former vice president. Despite investing millions in to the California primary and surging forward in the final weeks, Bloomberg was unable to overcome Sanders. Elizabeth Warren who continued to battle with Sanders over the progressive base, despite a late endorsement from First Partner Jennifer Siebel Newsom, Governor Newsom’s wife, she was not able to get above the 15 percent threshold to win delegates. In the congressional races, a number of heated primaries played out yesterday. In the 25th Congressional District combined special and primary election, Republicans had hoped to regain the seat won by former Representative Katie Hill who resigned last year amid a House ethics probe and sex scandal. State Assembly Democrat Christy Smith, however, was leading Republican Mike Garcia to finish the remainder of Hill’s term and kick off the next term of Congress in 2021. If no candidate wins the special election with more than 50 percent, the race will go to a runoff in May. Another Assembly member vying for a Congressional seat, Republican Assemblyman Jay Obernolte appears headed to a November runoff against Democrat Christine Bubser for the seat in the 8th Congressional District, with former Assemblyman and Tea Party candidate Tim Donnelly trailing in third. In the 50th Congressional District where disgraced former Representative Duncan Hunter stepped down after pleading guilty to a corruption charge, former Republican Representative Darrell Issa was leading Republicans and is expected to face off against Democrat Ammar Campa-Najjar in November. In state legislative races, we saw a host of competitive races and battles tied to political dynasties, Republican defectors, party infighting, and more. A political dynasty in Sacramento, the Los Angeles-based Calderon family is back in the mix again with Assembly Majority Leader Ian Calderon announcing he will step down this year to attend to his young and growing family. Calderon succeeded his father Charles Calderon in representing the 57th Assembly District, as well as his two uncles Ron Calderon who served in the Senate and Tom Calderon who served in the Assembly. Seeking to replace Ian Calderon, his stepmother, Lisa Calderon, threw her hat into the ring to continue the family tradition. The fight for the 57th Assembly District, however, was not assured as a newer family had also set its sights on the seat – the Rubio family, whose sisters Blanca Rubio serves in the Assembly and Susan Rubio in the Senate. The entrance of their sister Sylvia Rubio into the race led to a business versus labor contest with millions in independent expenditures playing out with business interests backing Rubio and labor backing Calderon. At this early hour, Calderon leads over Rubio and is likely to face off against Republican Jessica Martinez in November. Former Assembly Republican leader Chad Mayes continued to hold his positioning Tuesday as a newly registered independent in the 42nd Assembly District. Mayes who is a vocal critic of President Trump and strong advocate for modernizing the Republican party via his moderate New Way California organization appears to be headed to the November runoff against Republican rival and San Jacinto Mayor Andrew Kotyruk. Mayes’ Republican defection along with an increasingly progressive electorate are but two of the challenges Republicans face in maintaining legislative seats in the state. It isn’t helped by infighting as is the case in the 72nd Assembly District where Assemblyman Tyler Diep faced a heated challenge by fellow Republican and former Assemblywoman Janet Nguyen. Diep angered Republicans and the business community alike in being the sole Republican vote in favor of the highly controversial and broad new California labor law related to independent contractors. While the state Republican Party maintained their endorsement of him, the Orange County party rescinded its endorsement. Similar infighting is also playing out in the 73rd Assembly District where incumbent Assemblyman Bill Brough is on track to be unseated by a challenge from Republican and Laguna Niguel Mayor Laurie Davies who garnered 27.9 percent of the vote to Brough’s 18 percent. Davies is expected to face off against Democrat Scott Rhinehart in November. In the category of protecting the few Republican seats that remain, business groups weighed in heavily on a host of Republican races where the Democratic Party was playing heavy with the hopes of unseating yet another Republican. In the 36th Assembly District, Assemblyman Tom Lackey faced yet another challenge from disgraced former Assemblyman Steve Fox who appears slated to return to the November ballot. Lackey has already overcome challenges by Fox three times. Finally, in a hotly contested race in the Central Valley to replace Senator Cathleen Galgiani who is termed out, Assemblywoman Susan Talamantes-Eggman faced off in the 5th Senate District against Democrat Mani Grewal. Despite strong support from the business community and law enforcement for Grewal, Eggman will advance to November against Republican Jim Ridenour. Finally, while much of the focus was on the presidential and legislative races, the Tuesday ballot also asked voters to consider a statewide ballot measure to borrow $15 billion to modernize and update public schools. The measure, Proposition 13, appears headed for defeat early this morning on a 56.1 to 43.9 percent vote. That said, not all precincts have reported as of yet this morning, with millions of votes in Los Angeles and San Francisco purportedly yet to be counted. The measure supported by Governor Gavin Newsom and placed on the ballot in conjunction with the Legislature, may have been subjected to defeat in part because of its ill-fated ballot number, which seemed to cause confusion among voters who questioned whether it was an end run around the voter-passed Proposition 13 in 1978 that capped property taxes in the state. All in all, Tuesday was an eventful Primary in California the final outcome of many of the races we will not know for some time. County Registrars are required to report their final outcomes to the Secretary of State by April 3rd after which the Secretary of State is required to certify the vote statewide by April 10th. Statewide Ballot Measures PROP 13: AUTHORIZES BONDS FOR FACILITY REPAIR, CONSTRUCTION, AND MODERNIZATION AT PUBLIC PRESCHOOLS, K–12 SCHOOLS, COMMUNITY COLLEGES, AND UNIVERSITIES. LEGISLATIVE STATUTE. FAIL (56.1% to 43.9%) Authorizes $15 billion in state general obligation bonds for construction and modernization of public education facilities. Fiscal Impact: Increased state costs to repay bonds estimated at about $740 million per year (including interest) over the next 35 years. Presidential Race Democratic Nominee Candidates Bernie Sanders at 33.6% - although vote count will continue in to the coming days, weeks it would appear Sanders will retain the lead in California. Joe Biden at 24.8%; Michael Bloomberg at 14.3%; Elizabeth Warren at 12.1% Congressional Races CD 08 (Cook) – Christine Bubser (D) vs. Bob Conaway (D) vs. James Ellars (D) vs.
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