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Home , Blanca Rubio, Carlos Villapudua, Carl DeMaio, Charles Calderon, Devon Mathis, Ian Calderon

March 2020 Primary Election Wrap-Up

One of 14 states holding presidential primary contests yesterday as well as over one hundred congressional and legislative races, sought to bolster its national clout and have more influence on the Democratic nominating process by moving its primary from June to March. While results will not be certified by the Secretary of State for over a month, we can say with confidence that the March 3rd California Primary was one for the books.

Amid a host of recent changes to California’s voting laws complicating the process, over 15 counties reported technical problems including connectivity issues with the statewide voter registration database resulting in long lines and overloaded voting systems. County election officials largely cited issues related to a number of changes aimed at expanding voter participation, including the ability for prospective voters to register up until 8 p.m. on election day at any location where ballots were accepted and No Party Preference voter registration increases associated with the automatic registration under the Department of Motor Vehicle’s Motor Voter Program that required those voters to take an extra step if they wanted to weigh in on a partisan primary. And while the primary was earlier, many Democratic mail-in voters held on to their ballots awaiting outcomes in earlier primaries and caucuses, which will inevitably further delay the final count.

In terms of the widely anticipated Presidential Primary, with a number of Democratic candidates dropping out of the race just ahead of the California primary and overall fervor of California voters wanting change at the federal level in a state focused on pushing back on the policies of President at every turn, it was a hotly contested race to secure the 15 percent support statewide to be eligible for a portion of the state’s 415 delegates. At its core, California retains the most delegates in the nation, placing it with greater importance in helping to decide the nominee. Bernie Sanders at 33 percent and a surging Joe Biden at 24.2 percent appear to be the clear frontrunners early this morning in the race for the Democratic nomination, with Michael Bloomberg trailing at 14.8 percent.

Despite losing the nomination to Hillary Clinton in 2016, Sanders continued to invest his time and efforts in California. He opened a host of field offices across the state, including in the often left behind Central Valley, and feverishly pursued younger and Latino voters who make up 40 percent of the state’s population aggressively.

Biden’s surge appears to have been, in part, a result of his win in South Carolina days before California’s primary and on the heels of his moderate rivals Pete Buttigieg and Amy Klobuchar ending their campaigns and endorsing the former vice president.

Despite investing millions in to the California primary and surging forward in the final weeks, Bloomberg was unable to overcome Sanders. Elizabeth Warren who continued to battle with Sanders over the progressive base, despite a late endorsement from First Partner Jennifer Siebel Newsom, Governor Newsom’s wife, she was not able to get above the 15 percent threshold to win delegates.

In the congressional races, a number of heated primaries played out yesterday. In the 25th Congressional District combined special and primary election, Republicans had hoped to regain the seat won by former Representative Katie Hill who resigned last year amid a House ethics probe and sex scandal. State Assembly Democrat Christy Smith, however, was leading Republican to finish the remainder of Hill’s term and kick off the next term of Congress in 2021. If no candidate wins the special election with more than 50 percent, the race will go to a runoff in May.

Another Assembly member vying for a Congressional seat, Republican Assemblyman appears headed to a November runoff against Democrat Christine Bubser for the seat in the 8th Congressional District, with former Assemblyman and Tea Party candidate Tim Donnelly trailing in third.

In the 50th Congressional District where disgraced former Representative Duncan Hunter stepped down after pleading guilty to a corruption charge, former Republican Representative was leading Republicans and is expected to face off against Democrat Ammar Campa-Najjar in November.

In state legislative races, we saw a host of competitive races and battles tied to political dynasties, Republican defectors, party infighting, and more.

A political dynasty in Sacramento, the Los Angeles-based Calderon family is back in the mix again with Assembly Majority Leader announcing he will step down this year to attend to his young and growing family. Calderon succeeded his father in representing the 57th Assembly District, as well as his two uncles who served in the Senate and Tom Calderon who served in the Assembly. Seeking to replace Ian Calderon, his stepmother, , threw her hat into the ring to continue the family tradition.

The fight for the 57th Assembly District, however, was not assured as a newer family had also set its sights on the seat – the Rubio family, whose sisters serves in the Assembly and in the Senate. The entrance of their sister Sylvia Rubio into the race led to a business versus labor contest with millions in independent expenditures playing out with business interests backing Rubio and labor backing Calderon.

At this early hour, Calderon leads over Rubio and is likely to face off against Republican Jessica Martinez in November.

Former Assembly Republican leader continued to hold his positioning Tuesday as a newly registered independent in the 42nd Assembly District. Mayes who is a vocal critic of President Trump and strong advocate for modernizing the Republican party via his moderate New Way California organization appears to be headed to the November runoff against Republican rival and San Jacinto Mayor Andrew Kotyruk.

Mayes’ Republican defection along with an increasingly progressive electorate are but two of the challenges Republicans face in maintaining legislative seats in the state. It isn’t helped by infighting as is the case in the 72nd Assembly District where Assemblyman Tyler Diep faced a heated challenge by fellow Republican and former Assemblywoman . Diep angered Republicans and the business community alike in being the sole Republican vote in favor of the highly controversial and broad new California labor law related to independent contractors. While the state Republican Party maintained their endorsement of him, the Orange County party rescinded its endorsement.

Similar infighting is also playing out in the 73rd Assembly District where incumbent Assemblyman Bill Brough is on track to be unseated by a challenge from Republican and Laguna Niguel Mayor Laurie Davies who garnered 27.9 percent of the vote to Brough’s 18 percent. Davies is expected to face off against Democrat Scott Rhinehart in November.

In the category of protecting the few Republican seats that remain, business groups weighed in heavily on a host of Republican races where the Democratic Party was playing heavy with the hopes of unseating yet another Republican. In the 36th Assembly District, Assemblyman faced yet another challenge from disgraced former Assemblyman who appears slated to return to the November ballot. Lackey has already overcome challenges by Fox three times.

Finally, in a hotly contested race in the Central Valley to replace Senator Cathleen Galgiani who is termed out, Assemblywoman Susan Talamantes-Eggman faced off in the 5th Senate District against Democrat Mani Grewal. Despite strong support from the business community and law enforcement for Grewal, Eggman will advance to November against Republican Jim Ridenour.

Finally, while much of the focus was on the presidential and legislative races, the Tuesday ballot also asked voters to consider a statewide ballot measure to borrow $15 billion to modernize and update public schools. The measure, Proposition 13, appears headed for defeat early this morning on a 56.1 to 43.9 percent vote. That said, not all precincts have reported as of yet this morning, with millions of votes in Los Angeles and San Francisco purportedly yet to be counted. The measure supported by Governor Gavin Newsom and placed on the ballot in conjunction with the Legislature, may have been subjected to defeat in part because of its ill-fated ballot number, which seemed to cause confusion among voters who questioned whether it was an end run around the voter-passed Proposition 13 in 1978 that capped property taxes in the state.

All in all, Tuesday was an eventful Primary in California the final outcome of many of the races we will not know for some time. County Registrars are required to report their final outcomes to the Secretary of State by April 3rd after which the Secretary of State is required to certify the vote statewide by April 10th.

Statewide Ballot Measures

PROP 13: AUTHORIZES BONDS FOR FACILITY REPAIR, CONSTRUCTION, AND MODERNIZATION AT PUBLIC PRESCHOOLS, K–12 SCHOOLS, COMMUNITY COLLEGES, AND UNIVERSITIES. LEGISLATIVE STATUTE. FAIL (56.1% to 43.9%)

Authorizes $15 billion in state general obligation bonds for construction and modernization of public education facilities. Fiscal Impact: Increased state costs to repay bonds estimated at about $740 million per year (including interest) over the next 35 years.

Presidential Race

Democratic Nominee Candidates

Bernie Sanders at 33.6% - although vote count will continue in to the coming days, weeks it would appear Sanders will retain the lead in California. Joe Biden at 24.8%; Michael Bloomberg at 14.3%; Elizabeth Warren at 12.1%

Congressional Races

CD 08 (Cook) – Christine Bubser (D) vs. Bob Conaway (D) vs. James Ellars (D) vs. Tim Donnelly (R) vs. Jerry Laws (R) vs. Jay Obernolte (R) vs. Jeremy Staat (R) vs. Justin David Whitehead (R) vs. Jeff Esmus (NPP) **Bubser vs. Obernolte at 27% to 35.4% and will face off in November General

CD 10 (Harder) – Michael J. "Mike" Barkley (D) vs. Ryan Blevins (D) vs. (D) vs. Bob Elliott (R) vs. Ted Howze (R) vs. Marla Sousa Livengood (R) ** Harder vs. Howze at 39.8% to 37.5% - and will face off in November General

CD 16 (Costa) – (D) vs. Esmeralda Soria (D) vs. Kimberly Elizabeth Williams (D) vs. Kevin Cookingham (R) **Costa vs. Cookingham at 37.5% to 38.5% - and will face off in November General

CD 21 (Cox) – David G. Valadao (R) vs. TJ Cox (D) vs. Ricardo De La Fuente (D) vs. Roque "Rocky" De La Fuente (R) ** Cox vs. Valadao at 36.1% to 53.1% - and will face off in November General

CD 25 (Hill) – Robert Cooper III (D) vs. Getro Franck Elize (D) vs. Christopher C. Smith (D) vs. Christy Smith (D) vs. Cenk Uygur (D) vs. Aníbal Valdéz-Ortega (D) vs. Mike Garcia (R) vs. Kenneth Jenks (R) vs. Steve Knight (R) vs. David Lozano (R) vs. Daniel Mercuri (R) vs. George Papadopoulos (R) vs. Otis Lee Cooper (NNP) ** Smith vs. Garcia at 29.8% to 25.5% with Knight trailing at 20.1% - and will face off in November General

CD 39 (Cisneros) – (R) vs. Gil Cisneros (D) vs. Steve Cox (NNP) ** Kim vs. Cisneros at 50.9% to 44.2% - and will face off in November General

CD 45 (Porter) – (D) vs. Rhonda Furin (R) vs. Christopher J. Gonzales (R) vs. Peggy Huang (R) vs. Greg Raths (R) vs. Don Sedgwick (R) vs. Lisa Sparks (R) ** Porter vs. Raths at 48.1% to 18.9% - and will face off in November General

CD 48 (Rouda) – Harley Rouda (D) vs. Brian Burley (R) vs. James Brian Griffin (R) vs. John Thomas Schuesler (R) vs. (R) vs. Richard Mata (American Independent) ** Rouda vs. Steel at 43.7% to 36.7 - and will face off in November General

CD 49 (Levin) – (D) vs. Brian Maryott (R) ** Levin vs. Marycott at 52.8% to 47.2% - will face off in November General

CD 50 (Hunter) – Marisa Calderon (D) vs. Ammar Campa-Najjar (D) vs. Carl DeMaio (R) vs. Darrell Issa (R) vs. Brian W. Jones (R) vs. Nathan "Nate" Wilkins (R) vs. Jose Cortes (Peace and Freedom) vs. Helen L. Horvath (NPP) vs. Lucinda KWH Jahn (NPP) vs. Henry Alan Ota (NPP) ** Campa-Najjar vs. Issa at 34.4% to 24.9% with DeMaio trailing at 21% - will face off in November General

Senate Races

SD 01 (B. Dahle) – Pamela Dawn Swartz (D) vs. (R) vs. Linda Kelleher (NPP) **Dahle vs. Swartz at 61.6% to 32.4% - will face off in November General

SD 05 (Galgiani) – Susan Talamantes Eggman (D) vs. Mani Grewal (D) vs. Jesús Andrade (R) vs. Kathleen A Garcia (R) vs. Jim Ridenour (R) ** Eggman vs. Ridenour at 31.4% to 27.9% with Grewal trailing at 17.9% - will face off in November General

SD 07 (Glazer) – (D) vs. Marisol Rubio (D) vs. Julie Mobley (R) ** Glazer vs. Mobley at 48.2% to 30.7% with Rubio trailing at 21.1% - will face off in November General

SD 11 (Wiener) – (D) vs. Jackie Fielder (D) vs. Erin Smith (R) ** Wiener vs. Fielder at 54.6% to 32.1% - will face off in November General

SD 13 (Hill) – (D) vs. Mike Brownrigg (D) vs. Sally J. Lieber (D) vs. Alexander Glew (R) ** Becker vs. Glew at 20.4% to 21.2% with Lieber trailing at 16% - will face off in November General

SD 15 (Beall) – Nora Campos (D) vs. (D) vs. Ann M. Ravel (D) vs. Ken Del Valle (R) vs. Robert Howell (R) vs. Tim Gildersleeve (NNP) vs. Johnny Khamis (NNP) ** Cortese vs. Ravel at 33% to 19.8% with Campos trailing at 16.7% - will face off in November General

SD 17 (Monning) – Maria Cadenas (D) vs. John Laird (D) vs. John M. Nevill (D) vs. Vicki Nohrden (R) ** Laird vs. Nohrden at 42.3% to 35.9% - will face off in November General

SD 19 (Jackson) – S. Monique Limón (D) vs. Gary J. Michaels (D) vs. Anastasia Stone (NNP) ** Limon vs. Michaels at 56.4% to 38.1% - will face off in November General

SD 21 (Wilk) – Warren Heaton (D) vs. Steve Hill (D) vs. Dana LaMon (D) vs. Kipp Mueller (D) vs. (R) ** Wilk vs. Mueller at 55.6% to 17.2% - will face off in November General

SD 23 (Morrell) – Kris Goodfellow (D) vs. Abigail Medina (D) vs. Rosilicie Ochoa Bogh (R) vs. Cristina Puraci (R) vs. Lloyd White (R) **Goodfellow at 17.1%, Medina at 25.7%, Bogh at 24.8%, Puraci at 8.3% and White at 24% **Too Close to Call

**Special General Election** SD 28 (Stone) – Anna Nevenic (D) vs. Elizabeth Romero (D) vs. Joy Silver (D) vs. (R) vs. John Schwab (R) ** Melendez at 41.5%, the race remains too close to call between Romero at 21.7% and Silver at 20.6% **Too Close to Call

SD 29 (Chang) – Joseph Cho (D) vs. (D) vs. Ling Ling Chang (R) ** Newman vs. Chang at 32.7% to 49.4 - will face off in November General

SD 37 (Moorlach) – Katrina Foley (D) vs. (D) vs. John M. W. Moorlach (R) ** Moorlach at 50% the race remains too close to call between Min at 25.5% and Foley at 24.5% **Too Close to Call

Assembly Races

AD 01 (M. Dahle) – Elizabeth L Betancourt (D) vs. (R) vs. PK "Paul" Dhanuka (NNP) ** Dahle vs. Betancourt at 54.7% to 35.5% - will face off in November General

AD 9 (Cooper) – (D) vs. Tracie Stafford (D) vs. Mushtaq A Tahirkheli (D) vs. Eric M. Rigard (R) ** Cooper vs. Rigard at 41.8% to 35.4 - will face off in November General

AD 13 (Eggman) – Christina Fugazi (D) vs. Kathy Miller (D) vs. (D) ** Fugazi at 31.6%, Miller at 33.3%, Villapudua at 35.1%, **Too Close to Call

AD 25 (Chu) – Jim Canova (D) vs. Natasha Gupta (D) vs. Anne Kepner (D) vs. (D) vs. Carmen Montano (D) vs. Anthony Phan (D) vs. Roman Reed (D) vs. Anna E. Song (D) vs. Bob Brunton (R) **Lee vs. Brunton at 15.1% to 24.1% with Kepner trailing at 12.8% - will face off in November General

AD 26 (Mathis) – Drew Phelps (D) vs. (R) **Phelps vs. Mathis at 35.8% to 64.2% - will face off in November General

AD 33 (Obernolte) – Socorro Cisneros (D) vs. Blanca A. Gomez (D) vs. Roger La Plante (D) vs. Anthony A. Rhoades (D) vs. Rick Herrick (R) vs. Thurston "Smitty" Smith (R) vs. Alex Walton (R) ** Herrick vs. Smith at 18.4% to 38.5% - will face off in November General

AD 35 (Cunningham) – Dawn Addis (D) vs. (R) ** Cunningham vs. Addis at 61.2% to 38.8% - will face off in November General

AD 36 (Lackey) – Johnathon Ervin (D) vs. Lourdes Everett (D) vs. Steve Fox (D) vs. Diedra M. Greenaway (D) vs. Ollie M. McCaulley (D) vs. Eric Andrew Ohlsen (D) vs. Michael P. Rives (D) vs. Tom Lackey (R) ** Lackey vs. Fox at 59.2% to 15.5% - will face off in November General

AD 37 (Limón) – Jonathan Abboud (D) vs. Steve Bennett (D) vs. Stephen Blum (D) vs. Jason Dominguez (D) vs. Elsa Granados (D) vs. Cathy Murillo (D) vs. Charles W. Cole (R) ** Bennett vs. Cole at 23.9% to 32.1% - will face off in November General

AD 38 (Smith) – Dina Cervantes (D) vs. Annie E. Cho (D) vs. Susan M. Christopher (D) vs. Kelvin Driscoll (D) vs. Brandii Grace (D) vs. Suzette Martinez Valladares (R) vs. Lucie Lapointe Volotzky (R) ** Valladares vs. Volotzky at 33% to 19.3% - will face off in November General

AD 42 (Mayes) – DeniAntionette Mazingo (D) vs. Andrew F. Kotyuk (R) vs. Chad Mayes (NPP) ** Kotyuk vs. Mayes at 34.7% 35.8% - will face off in November General

AD 55 (Chen) – Andrew E. Rodriguez (D) vs. (R) ** Rodriguez vs. Chen at 41.8% to 58.2% - will face off in November General

AD 57 (Calderon) – Sylvia Rubio (D) vs. Lisa Calderon (D) vs. Josue Alvarado (D) vs. Primo Castro (D) vs. Gary Mendez (D) vs. Dora D. Sandoval (D) vs. Vanessa C. Tyson (D) vs. Oscar Valladares (D) vs. Jessica Martinez (R) ** Martinez at 29.5% with Calderon at 19.7% and Rubio trailing at 17.8% **Too Close to Call

AD 67 (Melendez) – Jerry Carlos (D) vs. Steve Manos (R) vs. Nick Pardue (R) vs. (R) vs. Jeremy Smith (R) ** Carlos vs. Seyarto at 32.9% to 29.1% - will face off in November General

AD 72 (Diep) – Bijan Mohseni (D) vs. Diedre Nguyen (D) vs. Tyler Diep (R) vs. Janet Nguyen (R) **Diep vs. Nguyen at 26.5% to 35.1% with Deidre Nguyen trailing at 23.7% - will face off in November General

AD 73 (Brough) – Chris Duncan (D) vs. Scott Rhinehart (D) vs. William "Bill" Brough (R) vs. Laurie Davies (R) vs. Ed Sachs (R) **Rhinehart vs. Davies at 21.7% to 27.9% with Brough trailing at 18% - will face off in November General

AD 78 (Gloria) – Sarah Davis (D) vs. Micah Perlin (D) vs. Chris Ward (D) ** Davis vs. Ward at 26.7% to 56.8% - will face off in November General

**This list of races is not exhaustive, but a review of some of the more competitive Primary Election races. Additionally, while most precincts have fully reported as of 5 a.m. this morning, elections officials are continuing to work through mailed ballots and these outcomes may change accordingly.

For a full list of all race results, please see http://vote.sos.ca.gov/.