PERSIAN GULF 2016-17 India’S Relations with the Region
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PERSIAN GULF 2016-17 India’s Relations with the Region PERSIAN GULF 2016-17 India’s Relations with the Region Editors P. R. Kumaraswamy and Meena Singh Roy PENTAGON PRESS Persian Gulf 2016-17: India’s Relations with the Region P. R. Kumaraswamy and Meena Singh Roy (Eds.) First Published in 2018 Copyright © Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses and Middle East Institute, New Delhi. ISBN 978-93-86618-19-1 All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted, in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise, without first obtaining written permission of the copyright owner. Disclaimer: The views expressed in this book are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of the Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses, or the Government of India. Published by PENTAGON PRESS 206, Peacock Lane, Shahpur Jat New Delhi-110049 Phones: 011-64706243, 26491568 Telefax: 011-26490600 email: [email protected] website: www.pentagonpress.in In association with Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses No. 1, Development Enclave, New Delhi-110010 Phone: +91-11-26717983 Website: www.idsa.in Printed at Avantika Printers Private Limited. To K. Subramanyam With deep respects CONTENTS List of Tables and Figures ix 1. Introduction 1 2. Bahrain 31 Manjari Singh 3. Iran 46 Alvite Singh Ningthoujam 4. Iraq 71 Premanand Mishra 5. Kuwait 85 Hirak Jyoti Das 6. Oman 101 Jatin Kumar 7. Qatar 118 Priyanka Mittal 8. Saudi Arabia 136 Prasanta Kumar Pradhan 9. UAE 153 Md. Muddassir Quamar 10. Yemen 170 Dipanwita Chakravortty 11. The GCC 191 Poonam Khatana viii Persian Gulf 2016-17 12. China 203 Swati Arun 13. Pakistan 220 Divya Malhotra 14. The United States 241 Md. Muddassir Quamar 15. Russia 255 Meena Singh Roy and Rajorshi Roy 16. The Iran Nuclear Deal 272 S. Samuel C. Rajiv 17. Policy Options 286 MEI Team Contributors 289 Index 291 LIST OF TABLES AND FIGURES Table 1.1 India’s Five Largest Trading Partners in 2015–16 11 Table 1.2 Place of Persian Gulf Countries among the top 25 Trading Partners of India during 2015–16 12 Table 1.3 Persian Gulf Share in India’s Total Imports 13 Table 1.4 Persian Gulf Share in India’s Total Exports 14 Table 1.5 Trade Deficit-oil Import Linkages 15 Table 1.6 India’s Energy Imports from the Persian Gulf Region 17 Table 1.7 Top Five Energy Suppliers 18 Table 1.8 Share of Oil-products in India’s Exports 19 Table 1.9 Share of Energy in India’s Total Foreign Trade 20 Table 1.10 Oil Reserves 21 Table 1.11 Natural Gas Reserves 21 Table 1.12 List of Countries Requiring ECR for Indian Migrant Labour 22 Table 1.13 ECR Issued 23 Table 2.1 India-Bahrain Bilateral Trade 39 Table 2.2 Share of Oil in India’s Imports from Bahrain 40 Table 2.3 India’s Energy Imports from Bahrain 41 Table 3.1 India-Iran Bilateral Trade 55 Table 3.2 Share of Oil in India’s Imports from Iran 57 Table 3.3 India’s Energy Imports from Iran 58 Table 4.1 India-Iraq Bilateral Trade 78 Table 4.2 Share of Oil in India’s Imports from Iraq 79 Table 4.3 India’s Energy Imports from Iraq 80 Table 5.1 India-Kuwait Bilateral Trade 92 Table 5.2 Share of Oil in India’s Imports from Kuwait 94 Table 5.3 India’s Energy Imports from Kuwait 95 x Persian Gulf 2016-17 Table 6.1 Budget Comparison of 2015 and 2016 (in millions) 104 Table 6.2 The Shura Council Elections Result 2011 and 2015 105 Table 6.3 Municipal Election Results, 2016 106 Table 6.4 India-Oman Bilateral Trade 109 Table 6.5 India’s Top Sources of Fertilizer Import (in US$ millions) 110 Table 6.6 Share of Oil in India’s Imports from Oman 112 Table 6.7 India’s Energy Imports from Oman 113 Table 7.1 India-Qatar Bilateral Trade 126 Table 7.2 Share of Oil in India’s Imports from Qatar 127 Table 7.3 India’s Energy Imports from Qatar 128 Table 8.1 India-Saudi Arabia Bilateral Trade 144 Table 8.2 Share of Energy in India’s Imports from Saudi Arabia 146 Table 8.3 India’s Energy Imports from Saudi Arabia 147 Table 9.1 India-UAE Bilateral Trade 159 Table 9.2 Share of Oil in India’s Imports from UAE 161 Table 9.3 India’s Energy Imports from UAE 162 Table 10.1 Number of People evacuated from Yemen during Operation Rahat 177 Table 10.2 No. of Indians from each state evacuated from Yemen during Operation Rahat 179 Table 10.3 India-Yemen Bilateral Trade 182 Table 10.4 Share of Oil in India’s Imports from Yemen 183 Table 10.5 India’s Energy Imports from Yemen 183 Table 11.1 Workers Migrating from India, 2015 (ECR Category) 194 Table 11.2 Population of Overseas Indians in GCC Countries (December 2016) 195 Table 11.3 India-GCC Bilateral Trade 196 Table 11.4 India’s Energy Imports from GCC 198 Table 12.1 China-Gulf Trade 208 Table 13.1 Number of Defence visits to Pakistan in 2015 and 2016 227 Table 13.2 Pakistan’s Trade Composition (2014–15) 230 Table 13.3 Pakistan’s Trade Balance (2015–16) 230 Table 13.4 Pakistan’s Trade Balance with Persian Gulf Countries 231 Table 13.5 Composition of Exports from the Persian Gulf to Pakistan (2015) 231 Table 13.6 Composition of Pakistani Exports to Persian Gulf (2015) 232 List of Tables and Figures xi Table 13.7 Annual Flow of Remittances to Pakistan 233 Table 13.8 Mid-year Review of Remittances 234 Table 15.1 Russia’s Trade with Middle East in 2015 and 2016 263 Table 15.2 Russia’s Trade with Other Regions 264 Figure 1.1 Exports and Imports with the Five Largest Trading Partners (2015–16) 11 Figure 1.2 Exports, Imports, and Ranking of Persian Gulf Countries in India’s Total Trade (2015–16) 12 Figure 1.3 Persian Gulf’s Share in India’s Total Imports 13 Figure 1.4 Persian Gulf’s Share in India’s Total Imports 14 Figure 1.5 India’s Trade Deficit-Oil Import Linkages 15 Figure 1.6 India’s Energy Imports from the Persian Gulf Region 16 Figure 1.7 Share of Oil Products in India’s Exports 19 Figure 1.8 Share of Energy in India’s Total Foreign Trade 20 Figure 1.9 Persian Gulf Share of Oil 21 Figure 1.10 ECR Issued 23 Figure 2.1 India–Bahrain Bilateral Trade 39 Figure 2.2 Share of Oil in India’s Imports from Bahrain 40 Figure 2.3 Share of Bahrain in Energy imports from the Persian Gulf 41 Figure 3.1 India-Iran Bilateral Trade 55 Figure 3.2 Share of Oil in India’s Imports from Iran 58 Figure 3.3 Share of Iran in Energy Imports from the Persian Gulf 58 Figure 4.1 India-Iraq Bilateral Trade 78 Figure 4.2 Share of Oil in India’s Imports from Iraq 79 Figure 4.3 Share of Iraq in Energy Imports from Persian Gulf 80 Figure 5.1 India-Kuwait Bilateral Trade 92 Figure 5.2 Share of Oil in India’s Imports from Kuwait 94 Figure 5.3 Share of Kuwait in Energy Imports from Persian Gulf 95 Figure 6.1 India-Oman Bilateral Trade 109 Figure 6.2 Share of Oil in India’s Imports from Oman 112 Figure 6.3 Share of Oman in Energy Imports from Persian Gulf 113 Figure 7.1 India-Qatar Bilateral Trade 126 Figure 7.2 Share of Oil in India’s Imports from Qatar 127 Figure 7.3 Share of Qatar in Energy Imports from Persian Gulf 128 Figure 8.1 India-Saudi Arabia Bilateral Trade 144 Figure 8.2 Share of Energy in India’s Imports from Saudi Arabia 146 xii Persian Gulf 2016-17 Figure 8.3 Share of Saudi Arabia in Energy Imports from Persian Gulf 147 Figure 9.1 India-UAE Bilateral Trade 160 Figure 9.2 Share of Oil in India’s Imports from UAE 161 Figure 9.3 Share of UAE in Energy Imports from Persian Gulf 162 Figure 10.1 No. of People evacuated by MV Kavaratti and MV Corals from Yemen during Operation Rahat 177 Figure 10.2 No. of People Rescued by Different Modes of Evacuation during Operation Rahat 179 Figure 10.3 India-Yemen Bilateral Trade 182 Figure 10.4 Share of Oil in India’s Imports from Yemen 183 Figure 10.5 Share of Yemen in Energy Imports from Persian Gulf 184 Figure 11.1 Workers Emigrating from India, 2015 (ECR Category) 194 Figure 11.2 India-GCC Bilateral Trade 196 Figure 11.3 India’s Energy Imports from GCC 198 Figure 12.1 China-Gulf Trade, 2012–15 209 Figure 13.1 Number of Defence visits 227 Figure 13.2 Imports from Persian Gulf to Pakistan (2015) 232 Figure 13.3 Pakistani Exports to Persian Gulf (2015) 233 Figure 13.4 Remittance Inflow to Pakistan 234 1 INTRODUCTION Since the election of Narendra Modi as Prime Minister in May 2014, the ever turbulent Middle East, especially the Persian Gulf region, has been receiving considerable political, diplomatic, strategic, economic, and hence media attention in the country. Since the days of Prime Minister Jawaharlal Nehru, foreign policy has been the domain and prerogative of the Prime Minister, and Narendra Modi has added his personal touch to it.