West Asia Watch Trends & Analysis

Vol 1 Issue 2 March-April 2018 West Asia Watch Trends & Analysis

West Asia Centre Editor: lEditorial Dr Meena Singh Roy Meena Singh Roy

lUS-led airstrikes in Syria: An incipient 'Cold War' Adil Rasheed

l Editorial Coordinator: The Festering Quagmire: Wars within Syria Nagapushpa Devendra Dr Adil Rasheed lAnkara Summit: The Search for Political Solution in Syria Lakshmi Priya

lEarly Elections in Turkey: A Litmus Test for Erdogan Editorial Team: Md. Mudassir Quamar Dr Prasanta Kumar Pradhan l Dr Md. Muddassir Quamar The Ascending Qatar-Iran Relationship Prasanta Kumar Pradhan

lInterview by Dr. Meena Singh Roy with H.E. Dr Saud bin Mohammed Al Sati, Ambassador Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia Copy Editor: Vivek Kaushik lGuest Column : President Trump, Iran and the Nuclear Deal Sanjay Singh

lWest Asia News Survey (Prepared by Jatin Kumar, Lakshmi Priya and Nagapushpa Devendra)

West Asia Centre

Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses No. 1, Development Enclave, Rao Tula Ram Marg, Delhi Cantt, New Delhi – 110 010 Tel. (91-11)2671 7983, Fax: (91-11)2615 4191 Website: http://www.idsa.in

EDITORIAL

West Asia Watch: Ongoing Conflict and Uncertainties in the Region

During March –April 2018, the West Asian region witnessed further escalation of conflicts in Syria and Yemen and greater uncertainties in the region. The US led airstrike on April 14, 2018 on Syria in response to alleged chemical weapons attack on civilians in the town of Douma in East Ghouta, by the Basher Al Assad government created completely new crises situation. This situation has led to a new debate about West Asia becoming an area of ‘new cold war’ between the two major powers the US and Russia.

The announcement of President Trump on 8 May that it will withdraw from the Iran nuclear deal and is preparing to reinstate all sanctions it had waived after signing of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) has further complicated the situation in the West Asian region. While the US is planning to impose additional economic sanctions, Europe, Russia and China have decided to uphold the nuclear deal and emphasised their “continued commitment” to JCPOA. President Trump’s decision is likely to have serious consequences, upsetting the oil market, enhancing tensions in the region, strengthening the power of hardliners within the Iranian regime, leading Iran to perhaps restart its atomic programme. Although the Iranian foreign minister has said that he would work with the other partner countries of the nuclear deal but how the UK, France, Germany, China and Russia will be able save the deal while ensuring full benefits for Iran, remains to be seen. This would also determine the response of Iran. Tensions are already high in the region.

At the broader regional level, Saudi Arabia has been working towards showcasing a new reformed face of the Kingdom to the international community. Attempts to create new pillars of the Saudi economy are underway under its Vision 2030 programme. Simultaneously, the Kingdom is strengthening its regional and international cooperation, including the re-setting of its ties with Israel to counter Iran’s growing influence in the region. Saudi Arabia, the UAE and the US are also working on a national security adviser level trilateral security forum. While the situation in Yemen is becoming much more complex, some media reports suggest that secret talks are on between Saudi Arabia and Houthi rebel leaders through Oman, to find a viable solution to the conflict. However, there are no indications about the Qatar crisis getting resolved in the near future. The growing engagement between Iran, Russia and Turkey is an important feature of the regional reality.

The recently concluded Arab League Summit in Dhahran focused on the Palestine issue, finding a solution to the prolonged conflict in Syria and countering Iran’s increasing influence in the region. In its current edition, the newsletter examines these new developments in the region during March and April. The themes covered in the issue include a critical analysis of

various dimensions of the Syrian conflict including the US-led airstrike and its implications, the Ankara Summit; the early elections in Turkey; and growing ties between Qatar and Iran. The issue also carries an exclusive interview with the H.E. Dr Saud bin Mohammed Al Sati, Ambassador Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and a guest column by Ambassador Sanjay Singh, former Secretary, Government of India.

US-led Airstrikes in Syria: An Incipient ‘Cold War’ Adil Rasheed

In the wee hours of 14 April 2018, the US, cruise missiles against Al Shayrat air base France, and UK launched the largest barrage following the alleged Khan Shaykhoun of cruise missiles on Syria since the opening of chemical weapons attack on April 4, 2017. the Iraq War in 2003, in response to what they claim was a chemical weapons attack on the town of Douma by Al-Assad’s government International Response forces on the 7th of April. According to a US Although, there was no threat of a military spokesman the aim of the air strike was response from Russia, Syria or any of their simple: “to stop the regime from using allies to these strikes, Russia called an chemical weapons again”. emergency meeting at the UN. But its The US, UK and France claim to have fired a resolution for condemning the airstrikes total of 105 cruise missiles from sea and air failed, with only China and Bolivia voting in targeting three alleged chemical weapons- favor of the move. related facilities near Damascus. These sites For his part, UN Secretary General Antonio were the Barzah Research and Development Guterres found the development quite Center, Him Shinshar CW Bunker and the disturbing and observed: “The Cold War is Him Shinshar ‘Chemical Weapons Storage back with a vengeance, but with a difference. Site’. There were no reported casualties in the The mechanisms and the safeguards to attack. manage the risks of escalation that existed in Pentagon says there was supposedly no the past no longer seem to be present.” coordination with Moscow before the strikes While Russian President Vladimir Putin called took place, but the “de-confliction line” the airstrikes an “act of aggression” Syrian that has been put in place to avoid clashes President returned the Legion d’ honneur to between Russian and Western jets was in France which he received from Jacques Chirac place, and according to Washington and in 2001, because he did not want to wear a Moscow, it functioned effectively. medal of what he called ‘a slave country of the However, Russia and Syria claimed that most US’. of the 100-odd missiles fired by US, UK and Although, Germany did not take part in the air France from sea and air into Syria were shot strikes, German Chancellor Angela Merkel down by Syrian air defences. The US denies said the operation was “necessary and this and says Syria does not have any air appropriate” to preserve the Chemical defence capabilities to put down their missiles. Weapons Convention (CWC). It is remarkable that it was in April 2017, a However, it is noteworthy that an independent year ago that Trump had first carried out an German parliamentary report found that airstrike against Syria, when it launched 59

“Military force used against a state to punish it West’s Attempted Show of Strength for infringing an international convention Several reasons have been attributed for the violates the prohibition of force under US, UK and France for conducting the international law.” airstrikes on Syria. It is claimed that the US India implicitly criticized the US and its announced that in spite of the growing control Western allies for the April 14 air strikes. of the Al-Assad regime in Syria, backed by his Ministry of External Affairs (MEA) Russian and Iranian benefactors, the US-led spokesperson Raveesh Kumar said: “The international alliance is not out of the game in alleged use of chemical weapons, if true, is Syria. It may currently not appear to have the deplorable. We call for an impartial and strategic upper hand, but it still wields the big objective investigation by the OPCW to stick and the opposition better beware. establish the facts,” he said. The air strikes tried to rally the increasingly “We urge all parties to show restraint and to beleaguered US allies in Syria, with Israel, avoid any further escalation”. The current Saudi Arabia and even Turkey greeting the impasse “should be resolved through dialogue attacks as a show of strength and a welcome and negotiations, and on the basis of the reprieve. The airstrikes are said to have principles of the UN Charter and in boosted the morale of the forces on the ground accordance with international law”. — the moderate opposition factions against Al- Assad. Observers also claim that President

Trump carried out the strikes to show he The Douma ‘chemical attacks’ meant what he tweeted, and unlike former US President Barack Obama, kept to his ‘red line’ The stated cause for these airstrikes was the commitment against the use of chemical alleged chemical attacks carried out by Syrian weapons. forces in the town of Douma on the outskirts of Damascus, where the regime has Thus, US Ambassador to the UN Nikki Haley successfully pushed back US and Saudi- said on 14 April, “When our president draws a supported jihadis, mainly the Jaysh Al-Islam. red line, our president enforces the red line,” she added. The action is said to have been well Since 9 March, 80,000 Syrians have received by the right wing constituency that reportedly left eastern Ghouta district, which mainly voted for him to win in the last US culminated in the Douma ‘chemical attacks’ presidential elections. that killed over 40 people, and injured about a hundred. The airstrikes also demonstrated cohesion between the US and its European allies Russia's foreign ministry claims that the video (France and Britain) that was questioned in evidence of the Douma attacks (which has recent months following their differences over gone viral) was staged and filmed by rebels at the Jerusalem vote at the UN late last year and the behest of British intelligence. Currently, over the Iran nuclear deal. The action is also Russian military police is deployed in the seen as a signal to Iran that it accepts district of Eastern Ghouta to supervise renegotiation of the deal as Western patience security. against its regional ambitions is wearing thin.

Conclusion More important, the airstrikes did not seem part of any clear US strategy on Syria and were The main criticism — even among US political criticized for being an attempt to cover up observers and media — was that these America’s losing control and influence in this airstrikes were not effective but merely theatre of war. To others, Syria had clearly symbolic in their import. One could hardly say become the arena for a new ‘Cold War’, where with certainty that the strikes would deter the US and Russia fight each other diplomatically Syrian regime from conducting more chemical and through their proxies, but at the same attacks in the future. President Trump had time observe ‘de-confliction’ lines in the war attacked Syrian chemical weapons sites even zone. in April 2017, still a major chemical weapons attack allegedly occurred a year later. Perhaps, stockpiles of chemical weapons still remain (Dr. Adil Rasheed is Research Fellow at the hidden in other places in Syria, even as a lot of IDSA) US taxpayers’ money was wasted on missiles in destroying questionable chemical weapons sites in these airstrikes.

The Festering Quagmire: Wars within Syria Nagapushpa Devendra

The Syrian civil war, which continues to Assad’s forces. Still, the fight between the overwhelm all attempts at a political Syrian army and Islamist rebels affiliated to resolution, reached a new unpredictable level Al-Qaeda continues to wage in Ghouta suburb of intensity in recent months. There has been and Idlib province. an escalation in violence on at least four In early January, Assad’s army geared up for a fronts: Turkish authorities have made a major major assault on Eastern Ghouta to put an end military offensive in the Afrin region of Syria, to the rebel resistance (mainly the jihadist Israel has launched several aerial attacks groups like Ahrar-al-Sham). The Syrian army against Iran-Syrian forces in the southwestern also pushed deep into Idlib province, which is border of the country, President Assad’s forces supposed to be a “de-escalation zone”, have unleashed a brutal assault on the rebel violating the ceasefire signed in 2016 between enclave of East Ghouta-Idlib Province and the Russia, Turkey and the Assad regime. US, France and the UK conducted joint air strikes against alleged Syrian chemical While the fighting in Idlib province continues weapons facilities in mid-April. to escalate, Turkey has demanded the regime to halt the violence. The reason for Turkey’s These four major intersecting conflicts waging concern was that the fighting in Idlib might in Syria at this time are studied in depth initiate another “wave” of migration heading below. towards the border. Turkish citizens have already expressed resentment towards increasing Syrian refugees seeking asylum in Assad’s Forces Hit Rebels Hard their country. Last year, violent clashes broke The Syrian uprising against the Assad regime, out between Syrian refugees and Turkish which had once escalated into a full-blown citizens. Human rights groups say Turkey has armed conflict involving various rebel factions, become an unsafe country for millions of appears to be slowly heading towards its end. migrants and refugees seeking to settle down There is a clear absence of leadership and in Europe. cohesion among the rebels. The influx of This led Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut foreign fighters has ended and foreign aid, Cavusoglu to summon Russia and Iran and even coming from the US, has been deliver a diplomatic complaint. For its part, suspended, even as support for the Assad Russia has blamed Turkey for its ‘negligence’ regime has increased. The last remaining in monitoring rebels in Idlib who were bastions against the Assad regime do not seem attacking Moscow’s military base in Latakia. properly equipped or adept at fighting against

On the other hand, Syrian state media has control of the Syrian army and Russian accused Turkey of aiding the rebel military police patrols. However, it appears counterattack. This has caused a rift between that Assad is not going to stop bombarding the these major players. militants’ enclave until he recaptures territories near the capital or moves on to In February, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham shot down bigger targets. Russian Sukhoi SU-25 by a portable air- defense system (MANPADS), the first such attack since Moscow’s intervention in Syria. Iran-Israel Fight it Out in Syria Although it is yet to be ascertained from where the rebels got access to MANPADS, as the US Meanwhile, Israel is reportedly increasing its has officially stopped supplying it to them, military activities deeper into opposition-held fearing Al-Qaeda will find a way to steal them. southern Syria. After a range of failed attempts The incident has further escalated tension at ensuring its interest were safeguarded by between Russia and Turkey, which is supposed major players like the US, Israel is now trying to secure Idlib from the rebels but is busy to implement ‘Plan B’ of its “safe-zone” plotting a belligerent evacuation of the Kurds project. It is reportedly trying to establish a instead. Thus, in the immediate aftermath of barrier stretching from Golan Heights to the the incident, Russia launched airstrikes in southern Syrian province of Quneitra and Idlib for two consecutive days, causing large- Daraa. The bufferzone, which will serve both scale civilian causalities. In fact, multiple state political and military purposes, might also media outlets reported that in 48 hours the help legalize Israel’s occupation of the Golan Syrian army along with their Russian ally had Heights. In other words, it will then become liberated more than 70 villages and towns much harder to debate whether the Golan from the rebels in the Idlib province. With this must belong to Syria, if Damascus is no longer remarkable progress, the Syrian government in full control of the territory on its side of the has recaptured nearly 80% of territories from border. the rebels. Many rebels’ groups have either Nonetheless, in February, while conducting an been liquidated, have surrendered or have air-raid on Iranian bastions, an Israeli jet was assimilated into other factions. shot down for the first time by Syrian air On the other hand, Syrian government is defence. In response, Israel immediately continuing its offensive in Eastern Ghouta and started attacking Syria, including its air- has captured more than 50% of the territory. defence sites, and even targeted Iranian So far Russia has opened a five-hour ceasefire strongholds in that country. For its part, Iran window to allow civilians to evacuate and dismissed Israeli allegations of an Iranian humanitarian aid to enter. For the past few drone incursion inside its territory as weeks the situation in Ghouta, especially in “ridiculous”. Douma, Hamouriyah, Harasta and the As Israel’s retaliatory strikes inside Syria Qalamoun region has reached a critical level. intensified, Russian President Vladimir Putin Syrians who were displaced by the fighting called on Israeli premier Benjamin Netanyahu elsewhere in the enclave have fled to these and assured him of reining-in Iranian areas, but are now besieged and are being activities in Syria. Unconvinced by Putin’s constantly bombarded and surrounded by pro- assurance, Netanyahu then called Trump to government and rebel forces. By April 12, all of discuss ways to curb Iran from using anti- Eastern Ghouta was declared under the aircraft batteries against Israeli jets carrying

out strikes in Syria. But it appears that he was phase of Ankara’s involvement in the multi- not convinced with the U.S approach in Syria sided war across the border. Thereafter, either, resulting in another alleged strike Turkey stated that it is fighting against ISIS targeting T4 base in Syria in mid-April. This and wants to create a 30 km deep “safe zone” strike escalated tensions in Syria, leading in Afrin that could be used to move Syrian Russia to condemn Israeli strikes and accusing refugees back across the border at minimal Israel of violating Syrian sovereignty. Again, risk. Iran and Hezbollah described the attack as On the other side of the conflict, the then US blatant Israeli aggression. Secretary of State Rex Tillerson denied the In fact, Iranian foreign ministry spokesperson plan to establish a border security force. The promised on April 16, “Israel will get the growing tension in Afrin obliged US Secretary necessary response sooner or later,” adding of State Rex Tillerson, to visit Turkey where he that “the days of hit and run are over.” It is expressed his concern over Ankara’s security likely that Iran has understood that the attack dilemma. Previously, US National Security on T-4 base actually exposed the strategic Adviser H.R. McMaster assured Turkish vulnerability of Iran as it depends largely on presidential adviser Ibrahim Kalin during a the Syrian air-defence systems, which are telephonic conversation that it will not provide unprotected at present. In addition, any more weapons to the Syrian Kurdish YPG Hezbollah, its key strategist in the region, is militia. preoccupied with upcoming elections in This raised scepticism amongst Kurdish Lebanon. It appears that Iran is going to re- forces, who later decided to reconcile with think and reorganize its strategies on the Damascus, an unwelcomed development for Syrian border, while covertly plotting its next the US. It is likely that Damascus wants to move against Israel. defend Afrin to get easy access to food and oil from Kurdish-held northeastern Syria. Nonetheless, this triggered Ankara to urge US Turkey’s Offensive in Afrin to prevent Syrian democratic forces from On 21 January, Turkey began its ground deployment against it. Thus, the renewed incursion into the Afrin region of Syria and conflict led all the involved actors to switch called it Operation Olive Branch. The offensive their sides to pursue their mutual interest is purportedly against the Kurdish-led which includes the new US–Turkey and its Democratic Union Party in Syria (PYD), its FSA, Assad-YPG alliance in the Syrian civil armed wing People's Protection Units (YPG), war. Previously, the Turkish government which is considered a terror group by Turkey warned the US and its forces embedded with since 1984 and Syrian Democratic Forces the Kurds around Manbij that if they did not (SDF) positions surrounding the city of Afrin. skedaddle they might go for a war. In The move came after the US announced its response, the head of CENTCOM, General plan to form a new “border security” force in Joseph Votel and the commander of the US led areas that were liberated from the ISIS. anti-ISIS forces operating in northeastern Syria, reiterated that “American troops Despite the Syrian government’s threat to positioned near Manbij will not be redeployed shoot down warplanes in its airspace, Turkey to enable a Turkish attack on that city.” dispatched its military chief to Russia to seek approval for intense aerial bombardment that While, the Turkish government claimed that signalled the opening of hostilities in a new its forces had driven the militias back out of

Afrin, forces allied to Assad entered the aftermath of the incident, Macron and Theresa Kurdish-held enclave to help YPG fight. May are steering an international debate in a However, with the help of the Free Syrian direction that forestalls another US strike and Army and tank defense, Turkey seized Afrin might consider establishing a non-military and is now planning to move into Manbij. mechanism for responding to future alleged However, the bigger question here is to see chemical attacks. how deep Turkey is going to push before the While discussing the US-led strike, US Syrian government and Russia-Iran decide ambassador to the United Nations Nikki Haley enough is enough. stressed that the US will not withdraw from Syria until a desired result to the conflict is achieved. Many observers feel the US-led US-led Airstrikes strikes have damaged the prospects of a On 14 April 2018, US-UK-France launched a political resolution in Syria anytime soon. joint massive strike on Syria justifying their actions with the alleged use of chemical weapons in Douma on 7 April. Multiple Conclusion reports states that it was French President After seven years of war with hundreds of Emmanuel Macron who persuaded US thousands of deaths and nearly 9 million President Donald Trump to launch airstrikes displaced, Syria continues to draw in new as punishment for an alleged chemical international actors into its melee. The weapons attack. Shortly after the French involvement of various internal and external President, UK Prime Minister Theresa May actors makes the war complex and points to its released a statement saying she had escalation for years. "authorized British armed forces to conduct coordinated and targeted strikes to degrade (Nagapushpa Devendra is Research Assistant at the Syrian regime’s chemical weapons IDSA) capability and deter their use." In fact, in the

Ankara Summit: The Search for Political Solution in Syria Lakshmi Priya

Russia, Iran and Turkey convened a advancement of the political process, as summit at Ankara on 4 April 2018 to envisaged by the UNSCR 2254. deliberate on a possible ceasefire across Syria and discuss the future of that The Ankara summit reiterated its support for the Syrian National Dialogue country following the Sochi summit held Congress held at Sochi, where in January. The prolonged civil strife in representatives agreed for the formation Syria has led to heavy diplomatic of a Syrian constitutional committee for exchanges and a series of meetings in constitutional reforms. All the three recent months. Thus, the Ankara summit heads of state at Ankara, called for the was preceded by a preparatory beginning of the constitutional ministerial meet in Kazakhstan for the committee’s work in Geneva at the upcoming ninth round of Astana talks. earliest. Earlier, the eighth round of parleys among Syrian factions, the second round of opposition meet at Riyadh and UN- The Intra-Syrian divide convened intra-Syria talks at Vienna had already taken place in a quest to bring Though the international community has peace to Syria. been emphasizing on a political solution for Syria, breakthrough has been elusive due to lack of convergence between the Endorsing the Astana Track Syrian opposition and the Assad regime. After the seventh round of Astana talks, The Ankara summit was a high-level Russia, Iran and Turkey announced that meeting of three heads of state that are the Syrian National Dialogue Congress actively engaged in the Syrian peace will be held at Sochi to find a political process. Foreign ministers of Russia, Iran solution to the Syrian crisis, as violence and Turkey met at Astana for preparatory had subsided considerably. However, the talks before the Presidents of their regime’s offensive in Eastern Ghouta and alleged chemical attacks in Douma have respective countries met at Ankara. These once again undermined the prospects of a countries unanimously emphasized that political solution. the Astana framework is the only effective international initiative that has helped Secondly, the regime and the opposition reduce violence in Syria. They reaffirmed need to diplomatically engage for their resolve to cooperate on Syria for the achieving political solutions in Syria. achievement of a lasting ceasefire and the Though 1600 Syrians, representing

various factions, participated in the Sochi reaffirmed the pledge of Russia, Iran and Congress, major opposition groups Turkey to cooperate with each other and including the Higher Negotiation Council, eliminate ISIS, the Nusra Front and other boycotted the event claiming it to be jihadist entities associated with them. divisive and fragmentary. The Syrian However, they strongly rejected all regime showed its reluctance to attempts to create new realities on the participate at the Sochi summit, as ground under the pretext of combating removal of the Syrian President Bashar al terrorism and the separatist agendas Assad was the first issue on its agenda. undermining the sovereignty and security However, later, it sent a delegation of 680 of Syria and neighbouring countries. members. Similarly, after welcoming the constitutional committee formed at Sochi initially, it later rejected it saying: “We are not bound by anything that is formed Turkey Supports US Air Strikes by foreign sides, whatever their name or state”. The constitutional committee is to It is noteworthy that following the Ankara include the Syrian government, summit, Turkey supported the US-led air representatives of opposition groups that strike on Syria, which demonstrates its participated in intra-Syrian talks, shaky diplomatic balancing act between members of civil society, tribal leaders Russia and the US. Turkey’s President and women, as a political solution can Recep Tayyip Erdogan welcomed the US- only come from within. led air strikes and called it an “appropriate” response; while Turkish Prime Minister Yinali Bildirim described Commitment to Fight ISIS it as a “positive step”.

The Syrian regime’s role is important for Turkey’s objectives in Syria differ from attaining a political solution in that those of Russia and Iran, in that it country. Since December 2016, Assad’s supports the overthrow of the Assad position has strengthened in Syria as regime, unlike them. Its Afrin offensive in Russia militarily intervened to defeat ISIS Syria and support for rebel forces makes and to seize control of rebel-held it a major threat for the Assad regime. territories. The intervention has helped Meanwhile, China opposed the US led the Assad regime to emphasize its inevitable rule in Syria and reject any airstrikes claiming it violated interference from the international international law. China’s willingness to community. Major parts of Syria are now engage in the rebuilding of Syria and under the regime’s control with less than including it in the Belt and Road 5% left in ISIS’ hands, mainly in the Initiative might suggest an inclination western part of the country. towards joining the Syrian peace process.

The joint statement issued at the The role of regional players like Saudi conclusion of the Ankara summit, Arabia and other Gulf countries cannot

be overlooked as far as finding a political was not raised, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, solution to the Syrian crisis is concerned. UAE, and Oman openly appreciated the Saudi Arabia has been supporting US-led strikes. Qatar allowed its Al Udeid opposition groups since the beginning of base to be used for the launch of the Syrian crisis and has been holding missiles, while Kuwait voted against the opposition meeting at Riyadh. It is not a Russian draft to condemn the strikes at mere coincidence that the day Saudi United Nations. Peace talks will continue Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman advocating a political solution for Syria; concluded his trip to the US, France and however it will not fructify until the Spain, the same evening US, France and international community reaches a UK launched the strike on Syria. Though consensus on the future of Assad in Syria. at Arab summit, the issue of US strike (Lakshmi Priya is Research Assistant at IDSA)

Early Elections in Turkey: A Litmus Test for Erdogan Md. Muddassir Quamar

The announcement of snap parliamentary is in serious trouble. The value of Turkish and presidential elections in Turkey has not Lira has been falling and as of April 2018, come as a surprise. Speculations about its value against the US Dollar is at a record early elections were rife for months and the low of 0.25. Simultaneously, the current only thing which was asked was when account deficit has risen to US $47 billion President Recep Tayyip Erdogan would go amidst an increasing inflation recorded at for snap elections. Now that it has been 10% in March 2018. Though the economy announced that Turkey will go for elections has recorded exemplary growth in the last in June, more than a year before the due quarter of 2017 at 7.5%, international date in November 2019, Ankara is agencies forecast the growth rate to witnessing significant upsurge in political slowdown in 2018 due to growing external activity. debt and current account deficit. Hence, despite the buoyant mood, the economy Given the current support for the Justice can still throw a surprise for Erdogan. and Development Party (AKP), the surge in nationalist sentiments after the Turkish Secondly, the political realignments can incursion in Afrin and a divided and weak lead to significant headaches for the AKP. opposition, it is expected that Erdogan will For the large part of the current term of the have a cakewalk. However, the president AKPgovernment, except during the April can face serious challenge due to three 2017 referendum for changing the system factors. Firstly, the Turkish economy is of government, the Turkish opposition has facing a serious downturn. With the benefit been a divided house. Republican People’s of hindsight it can be argued that the AKP Party (CHP), the main opposition party and has been able to win repeated elections in its leader since 2010, Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, Turkey mainly on the basis of its economic have failed to capitalize on the failings of performance. In 2002, Turkey was faced the AKPgovernment. Kılıçdaroğlu has also with serious economic challenges. The been unable to forge a broad based Turkish Lira was devalued by nearly 50% , coalition of opposition parties to put up a the GDP growth rate had hit a low of - challenge for Erdogan. The second largest 7.35%, inflation was raging at 37.5% and opposition party, the People’s Democratic unemployment rate was 10.8%. The AKP Party (HDP) which had an extraordinary after coming to power was able to showing in the June 2015 elections by turnaround the economy and gain support winning more than 13% of the votes and of the surging middle classes. However, as had a slightly lower share of votes in the things stand in 2018, the Turkish economy November 2015 snap elections of about

10%, has been facing serious problems due press freedom, many Turkish analysts have to action taken by the government against been critical of Erdogan’s erratic foreign its leaders. Selahattin Demirtaş and Figen policy and this can become an issue in the Yüksekdağ Şenoğlu, the joint former chairs elections. The opposition groups, especially of HDP have been languishing in jail for the CHP and HDP, can rake up the issue of allegedly supporting armed insurgency and loss of Turkish lives in Syria, the growing dissent. Despite the disarray in the insurgency in the Kurd-dominated opposition, the announcement of snap southwestern region and the lack of any elections can fast change the equation. movement towards joining the European Reportedly, the CHP has reached out to the Union to challenge the AKP and Erdogan. opposition parties including the Good Party Given these challenges, the snap elections and the Virtue Party who were once allies might not turn out to be the expected cake- of the AKP. Reports of backroom walk for President Erdogan. The political negotiations to put up a joint presidential situation in Turkey is not completely candidate to challenge Erdogan in his different from that of early 2015 when AKP presidential race, have delighted his critics. was faced with serious economic challenges Thirdly, the AKP faces serious challenges at and a stronger opposition. One might recall the foreign policy front. Even though that the June 2015 election results had arguably the impact of foreign policy on thrown a surprise result with a hung national elections can be limited, the way parliament and the worst electoral Erdogan has gone about conducting his performance of AKP with only 40% votes. foreign policy since 2011 has not only been Despite the strong situation in which the erratic but also significantly embarrassing AKP is in today, the snap elections can at times for the Turkish people. Turkey’s throw some surprises. While the opposition inability to have cordial relations with the will be fighting for survival, the snap European Union, its failings on the Syrian elections might prove to be a risky gamble front, the tensions with the US and NATO, by Erdogan who is vying for a lifetime its keenness to have a say in Middle East presidency. politics and more importantly, the linking of the Kurdish insurgency to foreign policy in Syria and Iraq have led to serious (Md. Muddassir Quamar is Associate debates in the country. Despite curbs on Fellow at IDSA) media and the continuing crackdown on

The Ascending Qatar-Iran Relationship Prasanta Kumar Pradhan

Qatar and Iran have come closer together Diplomatic Ties Restored in the aftermath of the boycott of Qatar by Ever since, both Qatari and Iranian leaders its neighbours — Saudi Arabia, The UAE, have urged for enhanced and continuous Bahrain, and Egypt – in June 2017. Qatar engagements with each other. Qatar has had to face isolation as these countries cut now restored full diplomatic ties with Iran off all political and economic links and which it snapped in January 2016 along pressurised Qatar to agree to their with Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, and UAE after demands. In such a difficult situation, Iran some Iranian protesters protesting against came to Qatar’s aid immediately. Iran sent the execution of prominent Saudi Shia shiploads of food and medicine and assured leader Nimr Al Nimr, attacked the Saudi all sorts of political and economic support. consulate in Mashhad. Exchange of Iran opened its air space, ground, and sea bilateral visits by leaders and officials have routes for Qatar. Iranian President Hassan been taking place and both the countries Rouhani described the act of the Saudi-led are trying to establish relations in diverse group as a ‘siege’ and vowed to stand with fields. Qatar. In October 2017, Iranian Foreign Minister Iran has condemned the isolation of Qatar Javad Zarif visited Doha and met with by stating that sanctions are not the Qatar's Emir, Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al rightful way of dealing with a country. For Thani and discussed ways to further Qatar, the boycott by the Saudi-led group is strengthen bilateral cooperation between against international law and ethics. Even the two countries. after the announcement of the boycott, the group put up a list of demands and urged In order to facilitate trade and commerce Qatar to meet those demands immediately. between the two countries, Qatar’s Minister of Transport and Communications Jassim Qatar rejected the ultimatums and both bin Saif Ahmed Al Sulaiti visited Tehran in sides hardened their position with each October 2017 and during his visit both the passing day. The pressure from the Saudi- countries agreed to form ‘a joint committee led group has been growing continuously to facilitate trade exchange and air and and thus, Qatar’s proximity towards Iran maritime transport’. has grown stronger.

Bilateral Trade that Saudi Arabia and UAE wanted to invade their country, destabilise and In November 2017, Qatar’s Minister of change its regime, strong security Economy and Commerce Ahmed bin cooperation with Iran and Turkey became a Jassim Al Thani visited Iran to further viable option for Qatar. bilateral trade between the two countries. He met Iran’s Minister of Industry, Mines and Trade Mohammad Shariatmadari who Iran Benefits from Wedge in GCC stated that Qatar has proposed to increase bilateral trade with Iran substantially from With tensions rising and pressures from below $1 billion to $5 billion annually. Arab Gulf neighbouring countries Qatar, Iran and Turkey signed a tripartite continuously increasing, Qatar looked up to transportation agreement whereby Iran has Iran for trade, transportation, as well as for agreed to facilitate transport of goods forging security cooperation. The situation between Turkey and Qatar. has turned out to be advantageous for Iran and its regional politics. Iran, who had Further, interest of both the countries over been facing a united and powerful Arab natural gas is another key factor in their political bloc in the Gulf Cooperation relationship. Qatar and Iran share the Council (GCC), has now found the unity world’s largest gas field, South Pars (also among the Gulf Arabs shaken. Saudi known as North Dome in Qatar) in the Arabia, the UAE and Bahrain have openly Persian Gulf. Both countries have called for the boycott of Qatar while two significant interests to collaborate in other members – Kuwait and Oman – have further developing the gas field. maintained neutrality and are mediating in In the field of security, Qatar and Iran the conflict. signed an agreement in April 2018 to Iran, therefore, perceives it as a good increase joint sea patrols on their maritime opportunity to engage with Qatar, weaken boundary. According to the agreement, the GCC and shrink Saudi influence over its border security personnel will exchange smaller neighbours. Iran very well realises information regarding any security that the strength of Saudi Arabia lies in a challenges emerging in their maritime united GCC, therefore any cracks within the boundary. GCC is an opportunity which Iran would As sailors and fishermen sometimes enter not miss. On its part, Qatar was facing the each other’s territorial waters, both dilemma of submitting before the regional countries in a friendly gesture have agreed authority of Saudi Arabia, meeting its to examine and resolve such issues quickly demands and compromising on its so as to avoid any misunderstanding independent foreign policy, or enduring arising between them. This gesture shows economic and political isolation by its the growing trust and confidence in the neighbours. It chose the latter option and relationship between the two countries. found a willing Iran to engage with. The Further, as the Qatari leadership feared situation has thus emerged as a huge

geopolitical advantage for Iran vis-a-vis its Till June 2017, Qatari forces were present arch rival Saudi Arabia in the region. in Yemen fighting against the Houthis who receive political support from Tehran.

Qatar, being a member of the GCC, has Continuing Iran-Qatar mostly sided with its Gulf Arab neighbours Differences on most of the political and security issues affecting the region. But despite the However, the increasing intensity of existence of such differences, the engagements does not eliminate the relationship between Qatar and Iran is differences that exist between the two moving at a faster clip post the boycott by countries. They still have differences over the Saudi-led group. As the situation the role of the US in the region. While unfolds today, the growing Qatar-Iran Qatar hosts the US air force at the Al Udeid relationship is moving on an upward airbase, Iran is completely opposed to any trajectory and it holds the potential to kind of US military presence in the region. affect the regional geopolitics of West Asia. Similarly, Iran and Qatar are on the opposite sides in the Syrian theatre, with (Prasanta Kumar Pradhan is Associate the former supporting the regime while the Fellow at IDSA) other siding with opposition forces.

“There are more opportunities today for Saudi Arabia and India to tap into than ever before”, says Saudi Ambassador Interview with Ambassador Dr Saud bin Mohammed Al Sati

In an exclusive interview to West Asia capabilities of promising sectors to create Watch, conducted by Dr Meena Singh Roy, the new pillars of the Saudi economy. As H.E. Dr Saud bin Mohammed Al Sati, the cradle of Islam, the Kingdom takes Ambassador Extraordinary and great pride in serving the Two Holy Plenipotentiary of the Kingdom of Saudi Mosques. We are working with the strategic Arabia to India expressed his views on the objective of providing the opportunity for current socio-economic changes in the the largest number of Muslims possible to Kingdom, regional conflicts, Saudi perform Haj and Umrah. Arabia’s foreign policy and the various HRH Crown Prince Mohammed bin facets of India- Saudi Arabia relations. Salman said at the unveiling of Vision 1. What are the new socio- 2030: “We have all the means to achieve economic and religious changes our dreams and ambitions. There are no unfolding in Saudi Arabia under the excuses for us to stand still or move leadership of HRH Crown Prince backwards”. Mohammed bin Salman bin 1. What are the key security Abdulaziz Al Saud? challenges faced by the Kingdom? To promote growth and build a thriving The Kingdom is the largest country in West country, HRH Crown Prince Mohammad Asia. It is regarded as a natural leader of bin Salman bin Abdulaziz Al Saud chalked the Gulf, the Arab world as well as the out Vision 2030 around three fundamental Islamic world, owing to its unique themes -- a vibrant society, a thriving geographical and strategic location economy, and an ambitious nation. The straddling the Arabian Peninsula as well as Kingdom and its people are in relentless the fact that the two holiest sites of Islam, pursuit of the vision to make our country a Makka and Medina, are located in the pioneering and successful global model of Kingdom. excellence on all fronts. But, its unique location has also made it We are transforming our education system subject to multifaceted threats – from Al- to equip students with multi-faceted Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula on its knowledge and values that help their southern border to Daesh in the north, in individual characters emerge and flourish. Iraq and Syria to the clandestine activities We are diversifying and unleashing the of Al Qaeda and Daesh in the Kingdom

itself. The Kingdom has responded by commercial ships, and oil tankers. Iran is taking firm action against terrorism and causing the greatest threat to stability in extremism and taking the role of regional the region. leader and committed global partner to 2. How can problems in Yemen combat terrorism. be addressed? We acknowledge our responsibility as a Saudi Arabia is working with its coalition leader and strive for peace and welfare of partners as well as with the United Nations the entire region. Unfortunately, our towards achieving political solution based neighbouring country, Iran’s sponsorship on the UNSC Resolution No. 2216, the GCC of terrorism caused turmoil and instability Initiative and the Yemini National Dialogue in the entire region. It is not only the Conference outcomes. biggest destabilizing force in West Asia but also the biggest state sponsor of terrorism We know very well that the entire crisis has in the world. Since the 1979 Revolution, it been orchestrated by none other than Iran. has used terrorism as an instrument of its We have long been a target of terrorism foreign policy. The Iranian regime does not perpetrated by Iranian proxies. Yemen believe in the principle of good shares a 1,100-mile border with Saudi neighbourliness or non-interference in the Arabia and Iran is supporting and arming affairs of others. Their interference in the Houthi terrorist militias with suicide Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, drones and mines. We have intercepted Bahrain, Yemen, and Afghanistan proves Iranian ships carrying weapons, to the this beyond doubt. Just recently, the Houthi rebels in Yemen. With Iran's help Kingdom of Morocco also severed ties with they have become the first terrorist group Iran, accusing it of supporting the so called in history to possess drones, suicidal boats Polisario Front. As our Foreign Minister Mr and ballistic missiles. Adel Al Jubeir said, this is another solid Despite heightened security concerns, we proof of Iran’s interference in the region. extended $11 billion in humanitarian aid to all the provinces in Yemen – including They believe in exporting revolution to areas controlled by the Houthi rebels. KS other countries as a part of their foreign Relief is currently operating 217 projects in policy, and under the pretext of supporting the country and it has spent nearly $925 the dispossessed they justify their million from May 2015 till March 2018 in intervention in other countries’ internal Yemen. affairs. The fact is the region is destabilized because of their interventions and the most We allowed Yemenis who fled the Yemen dispossessed people [who] need help are and entered the Kingdom illegally to adjust the Iranian people [who] demonstrate, their status and become legal residents. We protesting against their living conditions. are the single largest donor of Terrorist groups are now provided by Iran humanitarian aid to Yemen, having with ballistic missiles, drones, and suicidal provided health, nutrition, and sanitation boats that are used against cities, aid and relief to 17 million people impacted

by the conflict. We have our beliefs rooted cabinet recently stressed its support for in Islam – the religion of mercy, tolerance, alleviating the suffering of the Syrian and co-existence. people who are subjected to horrific war crimes. Earlier this year in March, the ‘Yemen Comprehensive Humanitarian Operations’ We believe the solution should be in (YCHO) was set up by Saudi Arabia. Its accordance with Geneva 1 Declaration and objectives are to improve the humanitarian the UNSC Resolution No. 2254. Even as we situation in Yemen by addressing the are fighting as one of the founding immediate aid shortfalls. The plan is members of the US-led coalition against specifically designed to address the needs Da’esh in Syria, we are also at the forefront of Yemenis. These operations will enhance of countries supporting the Syrian people the flow and delivery of humanitarian aid to meet their humanitarian needs and and commercial supplies, including fuel, alleviate their suffering. Saudi Arabia has medical supplies, and food, to all Yemenis. taken in over 2 million of Syrians from the The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia also war-torn country and provided more than deposited $2 billion in the Yemeni Central $700 million in aid to the Syrian people. Bank to promote economic stabilization The displaced Syrians who came to Saudi and improve the Yemeni people’s quality of Arabia were never treated as refugees. They life. This is in addition to a $1 billion were not placed in camps. The Kingdom deposit that Saudi Arabia contributed in made sure they integrated well in the 2014. country. They were given the freedom to move about and those who wished to The opening of 22 entry points (10 sea, 7 remain in Saudi Arabia were given legal land and 5 air) under the YCHO plan, along permanent residency status, which gives with the opening of Ma'rib airport, will them access to services – such as free enhance humanitarian activities and medical care, the right to work in the Saudi support the work of the NGOs and INGOs labour market and education. operating in Yemen to increase the number of beneficiaries in all Yemeni cities and 5. What are your views on recent governorates. debate on re-setting of Saudi-Israeli ties? 4. Current situation in Syria is getting more complex, in this The Kingdom remains committed to the context, what is the role Saudi Arabia Arab Peace Initiative of 2002 which can play? upholds East Jerusalem as the capital of the Palestinian state. We have also made The Kingdom has sought international our position on the matter clear to the efforts to find peaceful solutions since the United States. In fact, with the desire to beginning of the conflict to spare the Syrian highlight the issue on the agenda of the people the human tragedy they are Arab League and in the mind of the Arab experiencing today. The only solution to and Islamic world, Custodian of the Two the crisis is through a political route. Our Holy Mosques named the recently held

Arab summit as the ‘Jerusalem Summit’. investments. We also have friendly ties and The Arab and Islamic countries feel the good cooperation with China, one of our need to highlight this issue in light of the largest trading partners. urgent need to help the Palestinians to 7. How would you describe the obtain their legitimate rights, foremost of present status of Saudi-India which is the establishment of their relations? independent state with Jerusalem as its capital. We call for international support to Our relations are excellent and growing for foster peace in the region and alleviate the benefit of our two peoples and the human suffering. The Kingdom recently region. India has been an integral part of donated $150 million to the Waqf Support our growth journey. Our partnership has Program in Jerusalem and $50 million to grown beyond the supply of crude oil, support the United Nations Relief and refined products and LPG to a Works Agency for Palestine Refugees comprehensive energy partnership focusing (UNRWA) Program. on investment and joint ventures in petrochemical complexes and cooperation 6. How is Saudi Arabia reshaping its in joint exploration. relations with US, China and Russia? About seven months back, Saudi Aramco United States and Saudi Arabia are expanded its presence in India. Aramco longstanding allies working together to India is planning to expand its operation by preserve peace, prosperity and stability in introducing hydrocarbon sector services the region. Both our countries work closely functions, including engineering services on counter-terrorism demonstrated by the and IT. On the 11th of April, Saudi Aramco fact that the Kingdom co-chairs the announced a $44-billion deal to build a Counter ISIL Finance Group along with the giant refinery complex in India with three United States. The economic partnership Indian firms. The refinery will be able to between the two countries is very strong. process around 1.2 million barrels of crude We have friendly relations and good oil a day. cooperation with Russia. Recently, in Equally recently, India’s Energy Efficiency February our Minister of Energy, Industry Services Limited (EESL) signed a MoU and Mineral Resources His Excellency with Saudi’s National Energy Services Khalid al-Falih, went to the port in Sabetta Company to implement energy efficiency in Russia’s far north to open a $27 billion programs and scale-up demand side liquefied natural gas plant, in the company measures in the Kingdom. Saudi of his counterpart Alexander Novak and Petrochemical company SABIC has also set President Vladimir Putin. Both our up an R&D Centre in Bengaluru, with an countries cooperate to stabilize [the] oil investment of over $100 million. Going market. We have in the past year grown ahead, our current bilateral trade, which into deeper engagement, including stands at $26.71 billion, should further proposals for corporate joint ventures and grow as we engage in a host of new areas.

India is also helping us increase women’s the midst of major socio-economic participation in the workforce from the transformations. To think of it, since 1990, current level of 22% to 30% – an important roughly the same time the Indian economy goal of Vision 2030 which recognizes the opened up, Saudi Arabia’s economy more role of Saudi women in the economic and than quadrupled in size. And there has social development of the Kingdom. Saudi been no looking back for India either, Aramco, GE and Tata Consultancy Services slated to overtake Japan and Germany to have successfully set up a business become the third largest economy in less operations centre in Riyadh. than 10 years! Both the countries are blessed with a demographic dividend that’s All these instances reflect how closely our brimming with talent, potential and growth stories are intertwined. But our dedication. While about 40% of Saudi relations are not restricted to goods and Arabia’s population is under 25 years of services. The warmth in our relationship age, in case of India it is even more – with India comes from the people. almost 50%! We are much grateful to every Indian who There is much in common between the two has stepped on our soil and contributed to countries. While India is developing smart our country's development. The number of cities, the Kingdom has its eyes set on Indians in the Kingdom has increased to Neom – the $500 billion mega city, the Red 3.2 million, forming the largest expatriate Sea luxury resort project and the Haramain community in the Kingdom. The expertise, high-speed rail line. While Saudi Arabia is sense of discipline, law abiding nature of diversifying its economy beyond oil and the Indian community makes it the ‘most increasing the contribution of the private preferred’ in the Kingdom. sector as the main driver of economic 8. How can these relations be growth, India ushered in new era of cemented in the future and what economic reforms and mega initiatives. could be the possible new areas of cooperation between the two We will continue to draw upon our countries? common heritage and shared interests. There are more opportunities today for 9. What are the impediments if any? Saudi Arabia and India to tap into than There are no impediments. Our ties are ever before. A $100 billion planned time-tested and we have a strong investment in transport projects will occur civilizational bond and wide interests that over the next decade in Saudi Arabia. The our countries and two peoples share. The Kingdom’s construction market is also mutual respect and trust Saudi Arabia and expected to reach a record high of $96.52 India share has deepened with time and billion in 2025, up from $45.33 billion in reflects in a host of gestures – such as 2016. hosting India as the guest of honour at our As friends, the two nations have a long way National Heritage Festival this year which to go. Both Saudi Arabia and India are in was inaugurated by the Custodian of the

Two Holy Mosques King Salman bin Abdulaziz Al Saud. The Kingdom’s gesture of honouring

India is symbolic of its friendship with India. It was indeed heart-warming to see the India Pavilion at the festival highlighting the ‘Make in India’ initiative, based on the theme ‘Saudi Ka Dost Bharat’.

GUEST COLUMN President Trump, Iran and the Nuclear Deal Sanjay Singh

US President Donald Trump has made role it had under the Shah and play a no secret of his opposition to the P5+1 helpful part in dealing with the strife, Agreement with Iran, called the Joint sectarian conflict, extremist and terrorist Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). violence that are endemic to the region. He has been very critical of this agreement, arrived at by his predecessor President Barack Obama in 2015 and Bitter Memories has expressed concern that due to it Iran President Trump and his team belong to has enhanced its role as a "regional those in the US who believe that it is not power". He feels that the agreement is possible for the US to do business with seriously flawed and leaves pathways the present regime in Iran. They have open for Iran to become a nuclear not forgotten the indignities suffered by power. He is working towards the US, a superpower, by the 444 day dismantling it and in this he will now occupation of its embassy in Tehran or have the support of his national security by the bombing of the US marine team with the inclusion in it of Secretary barracks in Beirut. They view Iran as the of State Mike Pompeo and National major member of the ‘axis of evil’ and Security A John R. Bolton, both strongly lay at its door most of the blame for the opposed to the agreement. problems and terrorist violence in the The differences on this deal are region. President Trump has identified indicative of the divide in the American the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, now establishment on Iran. President Obama viscerally opposed to Iran, for a special and his team, somewhat disdainful of partnership and Crown Prince Gulf Arabs, were hopeful that Iran, given Mohammad Bin Salman as a favoured incentives, could become part of the interlocuter. He and his national solution to the problems besetting the security team have exhibited great region. warmth for Israel and the Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu, another opponent They might have hoped that Iran and the of the Iran deal. US could eventually achieve a ‘grand bargain’ and settle all issues. Further, President Obama, unable to get the US that Iran would perhaps reassume the Congress to rescind US sanctions against

Iran for its nuclear related activities, as interests of the US. In this case, other part of the US commitment to the countries including India will be forced nuclear deal, agreed to continue waiving to make a choice. European trade with sanctions certifying that Iran was in Iran might collapse, leaving Iran with compliance of the JCPOA. President perhaps just China, Russia and a handful Trump has continued to do so of other countries as its partners. While reluctantly. President Trump is determined to undo the nuclear deal, he may push Iran While certifying Iranian compliance last further into Chinese arms, who already on 12 January 2018, for another 120 have an overwhelming economic days, he said that despite his presence in the country. China is already disinclination he had not yet withdrawn Iran’s largest economic partner, with the United States from the Iran nuclear large investments in its oil and gas deal but warned that either the deal’s sector, is the largest customer of Iran’s disastrous flaws are fixed, or the United energy exports and views Iran as an States will withdraw. Iranian Foreign important constituent of its Belt and Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif in Road Initiative, providing China response had tweeted that the deal was connectivity to the Levant and the not renegotiable. The US separately still Persian Gulf. maintains sanctions on Iran — independent of the nuclear deal — on Iran’s influence around the region was matters such as terrorism, human rights bolstered by theP5+1- Iran nuclear deal. and ballistic missile development, which This led to a realignment of its relations rules out business activity by US firms in with major powers, removal of crippling Iran. sanctions and increased its economic heft. Its international trade was no

longer constrained, it could access funds The May Deadline earlier blocked in the US and other countries and its oil production and It is quite likely that President Trump exports burgeoned. The Russians, the may withdraw from the JCPOA in May Chinese and certain European countries and reimpose US nuclear-related started investing equities in Iran. sanctions. This by itself will not discomfit Iran much as it will not greatly The arrangement which left Iran with change the existing situation. If, nuclear capacity, which it could upgrade, however, he also reimposes secondary is perceived as a threat by Israel and sanctions targeting international trade Iran's neighbours in the Gulf. Iran’s with Iran, this will create a new set of increasing influence and support to its difficulties for Iran. However, it is not proxies in Syria, Iraq, Lebanon and likely to make Iran give up its pursuit of Yemen has alarmed the Saudis who are becoming a nuclear power and may push making all efforts to counter it. Iran Iran into new alignments inimical to the itself has over-extended itself in trying to

expand its influence in the region to the Presidential elections. These cost of the domestic economy, developments are symptomatic of the consequently increasing the hardship jockeying for power in Iran and the faced by the people. Iranian currency is positioning by different contending under pressure and has devalued groups in anticipation of a post-Supreme considerably. Leader Khamenei Iran. The Regime ‘liberals’ which includes President The agitations in Iran earlier this year Rouhani and his group, will be in could partly be attributed to these competition with the more conservative growing economic difficulties. All this anti-US groups including a majority of has compelled President Rouhani to those in the Revolutionary Guards and urgently try and address the problems the Clergy. The US would do well at this the country faces and prepare for those juncture not to become a football in on the horizon owing to possible US Iran’s domestic politics. But President action. However, it needs to be borne in Trump by walking out of the nuclear mind that the agitations were also deal, will make it one. political in nature and began in Mashad, the bastion of Ebrahim Raisi, President (Sanjay Singh, former Secretary, Rouhani’s opponent in the last Government of India.)

WEST ASIA NEWS SURVEY

deputy foreign minister Khalid Al POLITICAL Jarallah accused the Filipino embassy of violating Kuwait’s sovereignty. He 1. GCC to make Qatar an Island warned the Filipino ambassador to Kuwait Renato Villa, that such practices MANAMA (9 April): A consortium of could harm relations between the two nine Saudi companies have proposed to countries. Kuwaiti authorities arrested construct a 60 km long, 200 m wide and three Filipino suspects believed to have 15 to 20 m deep canal costing SR 2.8 helped a housemaid escape from her billion, on the Saudi-Qatar border sponsor’s home. In response Foreign extending from Salwa to Khor al Adeed. Secretary Alan Peter Cayetano The canal will be fully funded by Saudi apologized saying, “I apologize to my and UAE private investors and will be counterpart and we apologize to the Kuwaiti government, the Kuwaiti people within Saudi territory. and the leaders of Kuwait if they were

offended by some actions taken by the The plan is to construct tourist resorts Philippine embassy in Kuwait". – The along the water way, even though its National, The Peninsular Qatar commercial feasibility remains to be proved. Besides, Saudi Arabia 3. Tunisia Opens Consulate in announced that it would convert part of Tripoli (Libya) Salwa on the Qatar border into a military Tunis (21 April 2018): Tunisia has base and nuclear burial site to handle reopened its consulate in the Libyan waste from the first Saudi nuclear capital, the foreign ministry of Libya reactor with capacity of 17.6 GW to be said on Saturday, the latest mission to set up by 2030. return to Tripoli. Although the Tunisian foreign ministry declined to comment Isolating Qatar by building a canal will over the information, a diplomatic have political implications as it might source confirmed the move to the daily push Qatar further towards Iran and irk Libyan Express. The Tunisian mission the quartet even more. – Gulf News, was closed in 2015 after the kidnapping Forbes, Gulf Business of ten staff members. Most embassies had left Tripoli in 2014 when violent 2. Kuwait Censures Manila conflict broke out between rival factions. But the improving KUWAIT (23 April): Following a video of Philippines diplomatic staff engaged security situation and stability in Tripoli in rescuing Filipino maids from alleged has allowed some Western countries to exploitation in Kuwait, the Kuwaiti send their diplomats for longer stays to Tripoli. Italy, Turkey and the UN are

among the few to have opened their Statute, they are subject to the court's missions. — Libyan Express jurisdiction. — Israel Hayom

4. UN says Russia's Eastern 6. US-Qatar Ties Strengthen as Ghouta Aid Plan Not Enough Qatari Emir Meets Trump Damascus (1 March): Russia opens a five Washington (11 April): Qatari Emir hour ceasefire window every day in Sheikh Tamim Bin Hamad al-Thani’s Eastern Ghouta to allow civilians to visit to US has reportedly strengthened evacuate and let the humanitarian aid their bilateral relations. US President flow. The UN says that the window is not Donald Trump approved new arms sale long enough to accomplish either goals. to Qatar and described it as a “valued However, before the convoys are cleared partner and a longtime friend”. Both to enter the enclave the government leaders discussed counter terrorism reportedly strips 70% of its medical measures, military cooperation and supply and trauma kit. It also often recent developments in the region. US keeps up its ground offensive while the Secretary of Defense James Mattis convoy is delivering the aid, killing praised Qatar’s cooperation to regional civilians in the process. security through information exchange and counter terrorism efforts while Residents have mocked the plan saying appreciating Qatar’s support to the Al that theoretically it is in effect but in Udeid airbase. The US president said reality it does not really seem like there’s that "We are working on unity in that been a ceasefire of any length at all. — part of the Middle East and I think it's The New Arab and Al-Jazeera working out very well”. Unity in GCC is 5. Israeli Group Seeks ICC Action important for the US as well as Gulf Against Hamas countries in order to counter the threat TEL AVIV (April 25): Israel’s Shurat arising from Iran. Qatar-US relations are Hadin Israel Law Center has requested important in light of the upcoming US the International Criminal Court (ICC) decision on JCPOA. –Washington Post, to take action against Hamas over the Al Jazeera use of children as human shields in 7. UAE Files a Complaint with the ongoing protests near the Israel- ICAO Over Qatari Flight Gaza Strip border. According to Israel Interceptions Hayom, “the lawsuit is based on a clause in the Rome Statute, the treaty that ABU DHABI (2 April): The UAE has established the ICC's work, which says filed a complaint with International Civil that recruiting children under the age of Aviation Organization (ICAO) over 15 to any militant organization is a war Qatari flight interceptions. Civil aviation crime”. The suit names former Hamas authorities of the UAE and Bahrain have chief Khaled Mashaal, current deputy claimed that Qatari fighter jets recently leader Saleh al-Arouri, and moneyman flew dangerously close to two UAE Zahar Jabarin as guilty of war crimes, Airbus-320, belonging to the Fujairah saying that as all three are nationals of ruling family, while crossing the Jordan, which is a signatory to the Rome

Bahraini airspace. Bahrain’s air worth $10 billion. –Arab News, Al surveillance intervened in time and the Jazeera UAE civilian aircraft flew at a higher altitude of 35000 ft to avoid disruption. 9. Arab League Meet at Dhahran Saif Mohammed Al-Suwaidi, Director of Dhahran (16 April): The Arab League the UAE’s general civil aviation summit 2018 or Jerusalem summit was authority, called it a deliberate violation held in Dhahran and its major focus was of international covenant and a threat to garnering support for Palestine issue, civil aviation. mechanisms to counter Iran and response to the prolonged crisis in Syria. The UAE said that it is not going to King Salman who chaired the summit change its civilian flight paths due to pledged $ 150 million to the Islamic such violations. In response Qatar Endowment Support Program in accused a Bahrain warplane of violating Jerusalem and $ 50 million to United its airspace and reported it to UNSC. Nations Relief and Works Agency for Qatar has been isolated by Saudi Arabia, Palestine Refugees (UNRWA). Arab Bahrain and UAE over allegations of League leaders condemned the use of harbouring terrorism. –Arab News chemical weapons in Syria and called for 8. Saudi Crown Prince visits US, an international investigation. France, Spain Qatari Emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad

al-Thani did not attend the summit WASHINGTON (19 March): Saudi despite being invited. The Qatar News Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman Agency later reported that the Qatari visited the US to strengthen ties between delegation would be headed by the the US and Saudi Arabia. He signed a country’s permanent representative to defence deal worth $200 billion and met the Arab League, Saif bin Muqaddam al- a number of politicians, officials and Buainain. Saudi top diplomat Adel al- media people, including the CIA Jubeir mentioned that the Qatar crisis director. was not addressed by the Arab League US companies promised to invest $35 summit as a solution should be found billion in Saudi Arabia. The visit was within the framework of the GCC. intended to showcase the changing face However, on the sidelines of the summit, of Saudi Arabia to the West. The visit foreign ministers of the quartet — Saudi also symbolized the softening stand of Arabia, Egypt, the UAE and Bahrain Saudi Arabia towards Israel as the held a meeting in Riyadh and Crown Prince had conversation emphasized that Qatar must meet 13 pertaining to peace in the Middle East demands to mend ties. –Arab News, with a number of Jewish leaders. Middle East Confidential He also visited France and Spain and signed a number of MoUs on energy, agriculture, tourism, health and education. Saudi Aramco signed deals

10. Erdogan Plans Curbs on the and Development [human rights Internet organization] in Yemen has filed a suit in ANKARA (4 March): The Turkish a French court against the Saudi Crown parliament is considering a new law that Prince, alleging that his forces purposely would give the government the authority commit atrocities against civilians. — to censor Internet content on moral The Daily Star, Kayhan News grounds. With Erdogan looking ahead to the upcoming presidential election, the 12. Israel Suspends Relocation move is viewed by some as an attempt to Deal for African Migrants consolidate control over the last bit of JERUSALEM (2 April 2018): The Prime media that could stir a problem for him. Minister of Israel, Benjamin Netanyahu Meanwhile, Turkish opposition Republic suspended a fresh agreement with the People’s Party held peaceful UN refugee agency to relocate a huge demonstrations across the country in number of African migrants, as the opposition of the state of emergency that people from the Israeli right-wing has been in place since the 2016 coup compelled PM Netanyahu to scrap the attempt. —Al Ahval deal.

11. $2 Billion in Aid for Yemen Just an hour after the announcement regarding the new agreement, GENEVA (3 April): At the recent UN Netanyahu posted on his Facebook page donor’s conference for Yemen, that he was keeping its implementation member-states pledged to secure more on hold until further review. He said, “I than $2 billion to alleviate the am attentive to you, especially to the humanitarian crisis in the country. Most residents of south Tel Aviv,” adding “In of the aid is ensured by Saudi Arabia and the meantime I am suspending the the UAE, who will contribute up to $1 agreement’s implementation and after I billion to help improve the situation of meet with the representatives I will the war-afflicted Yemeni population. bring it forward for further review,” . Additionally, the UAE has promised to The issue of relocation of around 37,000 fund $50 million for the reconstruction Africans in Israel, has created a moral of the al-Nuri Mosque which was built in dilemma to the basic character of Israeli the 12th century but was destroyed by State ‘Jewish National Home’. According ISIS in 2017. to the deal, around 16,250 of the 37,000 migrants would be relocated to Western Meanwhile, the UN decided to become nations while others would be permitted more stringent about inspecting ships to live in Israel. — Reuters carrying humanitarian aid to screen 13. Czech Republic May Open weapons smuggling into Yemen. The Consulate in Jerusalem move comes after both the parties TEL AVIV (12 April): Acting Czech blocked and attacked humanitarian aid Prime Minister Andrej Babis has told the ships from reaching Yemenis. media that his country is not likely to Meanwhile, the Legal Center for Rights trail the US and would move its mission

to Jerusalem, but it will only open an referring to ultra conservative religious honorary consulate there in the next few scholars, stated that they have no place months. In March, Channel 10 reported in our times as they don’t realize how that Czech Republic is likely to shift its Islam needs to be updated. He said, embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem, “You can’t apply the practices applied 15 under Israeli pressure. The remark of centuries ago today. Islam changes and the Czech Prime Minister highlighted his adapts to the conditions of different apprehensions and wariness regarding ages. This is the beauty of Islam.” the decision of shifting the embassy to Jerusalem. It is important to note that Observers claim that Erdogan is during the UN General Assembly vote breaking the traditional mould of over Jerusalem late last year, Czech Turkish leadership by trying to control Republic abstained along with 34 matters of religion. This might not countries. appeal to the hard-line conservatives, many of whom are Erdogan supporters. 14. Israel’s New Ambassador — Al Monitor Arrives in Jordan 16. EU to Offer Turkey More Cash TEL AVIV (16 April 2018): The new for Syrian Refugees Israeli Ambassador, Amir Weisbird ISTANBUL (14 March) — On the heels of arrived in Amman on Monday to begin his tenure as ambassador to Jordan. He the Bulgarian Summit, the European replaced Ambassador Einat Shlain, who Union has decided to offer an additional left Jordan last July after a shooting $3.7 billion funding for the incident in which an embassy security accommodation of Syrian refugees living guard shot and killed two Jordanians in Turkey. The EU’s relations with after being stabbed in his apartment Erdogan soured in recent years over with a screwdriver. Later, Jordan was various issues, including Turkey’s failed irate because the guard received a bid to gain EU membership. The recent “hero’s welcome” from Prime Minister annual report of European signatories Benjamin Netanyahu in Israel. states that Turkey’s is moving away from In Jordan, the new Ambassador was EU membership bid and is sliding welcomed with protests by Members of towards authoritarianism, and the Parliament. Around 25 members of report hints at the state of emergency as Jordan’s 130-seat parliament signed a problematic. petition rejecting the scheduled return of the Israeli ambassador to Amman. — In response, Erdogan has said that Ynetnews Turkey is being treated unfairly in the EU progress report. Nonetheless, the EU 15. Erdogan for Islamic Reforms depends on Turkey to keep a tight lid on immigration from the Middle East, ANKARA (14 March): On the occasion of where the war in Syria has killed International Women’s Day, Turkish thousands and displaced millions, many President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, while of whom are swarming regional and

Western countries, causing demographic troops to act as a buffer between Israel imbalance. — Daily Sabah, Daily Star and Hezbollah in order to forestall the possibility of a war. At present, he is seeking more international aid in order to accomplish his plan. — Jerusalem ECURITY S Post 17. Israel Holds Largest Joint Drills with US 19. Turkey-Greece Ties Nosedive TEL AVIV (9 March 2018): The US and Israel held a month-long joint military ANKARA (20 April): Turkey recently drill that simulates a missile attack on blamed Greece for violating Tel Aviv. The drill was named ‘Juniper international law by refusing to hand Cobra 2018’ and defined as the largest over eight Turkish soldiers, who had fled joint combat exercise between the two the country for Athens after the 2016 states. coup attempt. Following this statement, a Turkish fighter jet was seen harassing Around “2,500 soldiers, including 1,400 the Chinook helicopter carrying Prime marines and 1,100 naval personnel from Minister Alexis Tsipras and the Greek the US European Command (USEUCOM), along with 2,000 Israeli Armed Forces Chief Admiral Evangelos Aerial Defence troops, logistics units and Apostolakis, while flying from the islet of other Israel Defence Forces (IDF) units” Ro to Rhodes. On the other hand, took part in the exercise. The military Turkey also blamed US Pastor drill came at a critical time when clouds Andrew Brunson for aiding the 2016 of another armed conflict were circling coup attempt. both the countries. In the month of The two countries are also at odds over February relations between Israel and US support for YPG Kurdish militia in Lebanon deteriorated because of Israeli northern Syria, which Ankara considers decision of construction of wall on a foreign terror outfit. — Daily Sabah, Lebanon's southern border and eastern Ekathimerini Mediterranean gas field. — Middle East Monitor, Sputnik News 20. Saudi-Houthi Secret Talks 18. Lebanon to Boost Army ADEN (15 March): Saudi Arabia and Presence on Southern Border Houthi rebel leaders are reportedly BEIRUT (15 March): At an international holding “secret talks” through Oman aid conference, Lebanese Prime Minister over reaching a political settlement on Saad al-Hariri unrevealed his plan to the ongoing Yemen conflict, Reuters deploy more Lebanese troops to the news agency claims. Both sides are country’s southern border with Israel. reportedly interested in reaching “comprehensive agreement”. The news Many Israeli observers considered this has surprised experts as both sides did move as a provocative act. However, not seek to involve members of the Hariri claims that he wants to deploy

international community in their 22. Bahrain Arrests Members of negotiations. Meanwhile, the new UN Iran Linked Terror Cell envoy to Yemen, Martin Griffiths, is DUBAI (3 March): Bahrain’s interior expected to participate in Yemeni peace ministry said that it had arrested 116 negotiations, which are geared towards members of an Iran linked terror cell an initial ceasefire followed by a political who were responsible for process to form a new government in the manufacturing, transporting and storing country. — Reuters explosive materials. It claimed that 48 of them received training on explosives, 21. US Still Pouring in Weapons artillery, and rocket-propelled grenades into the Yemen War in Iran, Iraq and Lebanon. Bahraini WASHINGTON (8 March): The police seized 42 kg of high explosives Pentagon has sold more than $650 and 757 kg of explosive manufacturing million worth of weapons to Saudi materials besides several Kalashnikovs Arabia and the UAE in its ongoing and grenades. Bahrain accused Iran’s military intervention in Yemen, says a Revolutionary Guard of uniting several report by Security Assistance Monitor terrorist organizations under a single programme of the US based think tank framework, training and funding Center for International Policy. The terrorists, and providing them logistical report claims that the weapons were sent support. On 1 March, the Secretary- to Saudi Arabia and the UAE through General of the Bahrain Human Rights the Department’s Direct Commercial Watch Society and Gulf-European Sales. This program also permits US Center for Human Rights, Faisal Fulad arms-makers to sell weapons directly to informed Geneva about Tehran’s foreign customers. The US weapon funding of terror in Bahrain. –Arab contractors have sold $610 million News, Arabian Business, Times of Israel worth of precision-guided bombs, arms and ammunition to Saudi Arabia and 23. Iran, Qatar Strengthen another $48.6 million of M-4 and M-16 Defence Ties automatic rifles and spare parts to UAE. Recently, the US Congress received TEHRAN (14 March): The Deputy detailed papers on direct US commercial Commander of the Islamic weapon sales. However, only the cursory Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) data was made public. Meanwhile, Navy Rear Admiral Ali Reza Tangsiri has Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad said that Iran stands with Qatar while Javad Zarif mocked US’ “sheer heading the Iranian defence delegation hypocrisy” for seeking to stop Iran’s to Middle East Naval Commander’s defensive missile program while conference (MENC) which is a key flooding the Middle East region with all element of Doha International Maritime kinds of weapons. — Press TV, Security Defence Exhibition and Conference Assistance Monitor (DIMDEX). He said that “ground is

ready for development of co-operation The Director of Arabia Foundation in with Qatar and we are doing our best to Washington Firas Maksad, said that the have stronger relations with Doha”. US is looking for closer alliances in the Defying the June 2017 thirteen point Gulf. While making efforts to get closer demands of the quartet states, i.e., Saudi to Gulf countries, the US is also Arabia, Egypt, Bahrain and UAE, Iran countering Iran. The appointment of and Qatar restored full diplomatic ties. Mike Pompeo as Secretary of State is an A month later, Iran and Qatar agreed to important step towards reversing Barack increase sea patrol in the Persian Gulf in Obama’s 2015 nuclear deal with Iran. — the Fourth Round of border talks. The Zawya, Arab News Commander of the Iranian Border Guards Brigadier General Qassem 25. Work on Qatar’s Amphibious Ship Begins Rezayee and his Qatari counterpart Brigadier (Navy) Ali Ahmed al-Badeed, DOHA (19 March): Italian shipbuilder signed an agreement to continue mutual Fincantieri has started working on cooperation in the Gulf. As per the Qatar’s seven vessels and showcased the agreement, the border guards of both design at DIMDEX 2018. Qatar signed countries will exchange information, an agreement worth $6 billion in 2016 conduct sea patrols and solve problems and ordered seven ships including one of fishermen and sailors of both landing platform dock (LPD) amphibian countries who enter territorial waters of ship, four 3000 ton corvettes and two the opposite side unknowingly. Perhaps, 700 ton offshore patrol vehicles. the quartet’s demand to sever ties with The LPD amphibian ship is the mother Iran has pushed Qatar further towards ship as it will provide long range target it.-Arab News, Al Manar, Khaleej Times information for the four smaller corvettes. LPD and corvettes would have 24. US, Saudi Arabia, UAE a 76 mm rapid fire main gun and Sylena Security Forum to Counter Iran Mk2 to defend against anti-ship WASHINGTON (20 March): Saudi missiles. In addition, the LPD will Arabia, UAE and US are launching a operate NH90 helicopters that can be national security advisor level trilateral armed with anti-ship missiles. These security forum to address Iran’s ‘malign vessels will replace the nine Cold War activity’ in the region and other issues of era Qatar navy patrol boats and one LST. strategic importance. The forum would Delivery of these vessels, which will engage monthly on issues such as unity begin by 2021, would put Qatar in a among GCC countries, war in Yemen stronger position among its neighbours and US’ South Asia strategy. with whom it has had a spat since June A senior US official mentioned that 2017. –Defense News, The Drive, Al Saudi Arabia’s security is a priority for Jazeera the US as Congress has approved $54 billion in arms sale to Saudi Arabia.

26. Arms Race in GCC Crosses The decision comes in the wake of $4 Billion in 2018 escalating tension between Free Syrian Doha (16 April): The arms race in GCC Army (FSA) and HTS in northern Syria. reached $4.052 billion in 2018 with all Ahrar al-Sham and the Zengi Brigade countries except Bahrain, i.e., Saudi have been fighting against HTS, Arabia ($3bn), Kuwait ($300m), Qatar accusing them of failing to counter the ($490m), UAE ($200m),Oman ($60m), regime’s assault in Idlib. Prior to the spending copious sums of money in unification, clashes erupted between defence purchases. Saudi Arabia signed HTS and Zengi Brigade — Ahrar al- defence deals with the US, UK and Spain Sham in November and August 2017. while Qatar, Oman, UAE and Kuwait The rebels also attempted to resolve signed deals with the US. internal rifts amongst each other by Spanish state-owned ship builder, mediation efforts, but persistently failed. Navantia will sell five small warships to — Al Monitor, The New Arab Saudi Arabia while the kingdom signed defence deals worth $ 2.8 billion with 28. Tribal Laws Determine Fate the US since January 2018. In March, of IS Families in Iraq the US approved the sale of Advanced BAGHDAD (1 March): Several Iraqi Precision Kill Weapon Systems II tribes have raised concerns about guidance sections to Qatar, King Air displaced civilians facing trouble in 350ER Intelligence, Surveillance, and returning home for various political Reconnaissance aircraft to Kuwait, 300 reasons. However, these tribes are also AIM-Sidewinder Block II missiles, 40 facing allegations of not allowing the AIM-9X-2 Sidewinder Captive Air families and associates of several ISIS Training Missiles and 30 tactical fighters from returning to their tribal guidance units to the UAE. Meanwhile, homes. It is likely that the current in January, Oman requested Operational situation would subject families of ISIS Flight Profile (OFP) software upgrades fighters to face retributive violence by for its F-16 fleet, as well as an the people whose family members and Identification Friend or Foe (IFF) tribesman were killed by ISIS. The Iraqi surveillance system. –Al Jazeera government has been keeping them in

displacement camps for safety and 27. Syrian jihadists gang protection. It is still unclear if the up against Hayat Tahrir al-Sham present condition will ever change. DAMASCUS (1 March): There is a new Amnesty International reports that permutation of forces within the Syrian women with ties to ISIS are being denied rebel organizational chart. Two Islamist humanitarian aid and are being factions — Ahrar al-Sham and Zengi prevented from returning to their Brigade — have joined the Syrian homes, with an alarming number of Liberation Front (SLF) to take down them being subjected to sexual violence. Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS). On the other hand, the Iraqi government

has announced the formation of an PKK fighters in northern Iraq. However, arbitration process to handle the Bagdad has not given a green signal yet. disputes between Iraqi tribes. Many fear This is because Iraq and Turkey have that it might elevate tribal law above the been at odds over the Iraqi Kurdish Iraqi state and civil legal process. — Al independence referendum. Their Monitor, Iraq Business News relations have soured over the treatment of alleged ISIS members, many of whom 29. US Senators Introduce were Turkish nationals, particularly Yemen War Resolution women married to ISIS fighters. On the WASHINGTON (1 March): At a press other hand, Iraq is already struggling on conference, US Senators Bernie Sanders, how to deal with child soldiers who were Mike Lee and Chris Murphy announced forcibly recruited by ISIS. According to that they will soon introduce a multiple reports, hundreds of children resolution that will put an end to US’ have been estimated to be used by ISIS, logistical and other support for Saudi including children who joined with their Arabia and UAE in their on-going families and the offspring of foreign intervention in Yemen. The bipartisan fighters groomed from birth to resolution will invoke the 1973 War perpetuate their ideology. Power Act under which the US President Various experts have warned Iraq over has to seek congressional approval for the threat posed to security due to these any deployment of US armed forces into indoctrinated children. Treating combat. children’s belonging to Yazidi It is likely that once Senate approves this community, who were segregated from resolution, it will impact US military the families and in many cases operations in combat zones ranging orphaned, is another challenge for the from Syria to the African region. Iraqi government. Moreover, the Iraqi Meanwhile, the State Department and legal system allows criminal prosecution Defense Department faced heavy of defendants who are as young as nine criticism on US aid for the Saudi-led years old. So far, Iraqi authorities have coalition in Yemen by the Senate been putting these child soldiers on trial Foreign Relations Committee [SFRC]. rather than putting them in The Congressional Research Service rehabilitation programs. — Al Monitor, helped SFRC by producing a special Hurriyet report on the situation in Yemen. — Haaretz 31. Hezbollah Says Not Expecting War with Israel 30. Turkey, Iraq Spar Over ISIS TEL AVIV (13 March): A senior leader of Families Iran-backed Hezbollah said that they are VIENNA (8 March): The Turkish not expecting war with Israel, but it was military is planning to conduct a joint prepared to face any Israel attack. “We operation with the Iraqi forces against have declared repeatedly and frequently that we, as the resistance, work to have

permanent readiness and we are ready “Israeli soldiers did what was necessary. to confront the Israeli aggression if it I think all our soldiers deserve a medal”. happens, and therefore we are ready to "As for a commission of inquiry — there defend ourselves by all available means," won't be one," he added. — DW.com, said deputy Hezbollah leader Sheikh The Guardian Naim Qassem.

Qassem's remark come at a crucial time when many newspapers reported that ECONOMIC Hezbollah had declared a state of 34 Harsh Austerity Measures Only emergency, fearing an Israeli attack. — Option Left for Jordan’s Economy Israel National News AMMAN (13 April): The Jordanian economy is going through its worse time. 32. Palestinian PM Survives Its current budget deficit is $700bn. Gaza Assassination Attempt Public debt stands at $40b which is TEL AVIV (14 March): Palestinian Prime equivalent to around 95% of its GDP and Minister Rami Hamdallah and General one- third of the population lives under Majid Faraj, the head of the Palestinian the poverty line. Under such conditions, Authority’s intelligence services, the kingdom has no choice but to survived a failed assassination attempt embark on austerity measures. But it is made by unidentified assassins. also not easy, as “an inflationary The attempt was made when the increase of up to 100% on some of the Palestinian PM was visiting Gaza to basic food items has triggered a public inaugurate a new water treatment backlash”. According to experts, the facility. current situation in Jordan shows that Although Hamdallah said the civilians have given up all hope in their unfortunate incident would not deter government’s ability to improve the him from forging unity and economy. — Press TV reconciliation with Hamas, many security experts have said that the 35. Jordan, Egypt sign FTA assassination attempt may adversely RIYADH (12 April) — Jordan and impact Egypt-led reconciliation efforts Egypt signed an agreement for free trade between Hamas and Fatah. — Haaretz and commerce within the services domain on the sideline of the 29th Arab 33. Israel Rejects UN, EU Call Summit's meeting for Ministers of for Probe into Gaza Deaths Economy and Social Affairs. By signing TEL AVIV (3 April): Israeli Defence the agreement now Jordan and Egypt Minister Avigdor Liberman has refused have joined the group of Saudi Arabia, the call of the United Nations and UAE, Qatar, Oman, Morocco, Lebanon, European Union to set up an inquiry Sudan, Yemen, Jordan in the agreement. into the killing of many Palestinians by Assistant Undersecretary for Economic the IDF during demonstrations on the Affairs, the Arab League, Kamal Ali said Gaza frontier. He noted that the soldiers that the agreement was part of the grand “did what had to be done” to respond to Arab free-trade zone, adding that it a violent protest. He further noted that would open the gates for investments

within the services domain for those formations. The company said the agreeing to the deal. average porosity measured 16%. The deal will gradually improve Further evaluation of the discovery is commerce within the services domain ongoing, after which the company amongst members in the upcoming 12 expects the Well to be completed as a years, said the official. - KUNA producer and be connected to the central 36. Jordan’s Aqaba Port processing facilities at Meseda. Operational this Month While commenting on the exploration AMMAN (27 March): Jordan's new port SDX Energy chief executive Paul Welch at Aqaba will be functional in May, noted: “We are pleased with the result according to authorities of the Special at Rabul 4, which completes the initial Economic Zone Aseza. The port is development of the structure that we strategically important for Jordan discovered in October of 2017. The four because of its location on the Red Sea. successful Wells drilled to date in the According to Aseza chief Nasser Rabul structure will contribute Shraideh, “the new port represents a significantly to our production volumes leap forward in terms of the quality, in 2018.” — SDX Energy versatility and speed of cargo movement, allowing the country to compete with 38. Iraq’s 2018 Budget Passed, Angers Kurds other major Red Sea ports”. The port BAGHDAD (March 2): The Iraqi construction project was worth $250m parliament passed its budget and not focusing on the construction of 12 everybody is satisfied with it. The Kurds terminals capable of handling various expressed their resentment over the kinds of liquids “including oil and the reduction of their allocation from 17% to doubling of the capacity of the grain silos 12.67%. Moreover, the budget did not to 16,000 tonnes”. On the other hand, have an accurate amount for Kurdistan the old port will be transformed into a saying it would get a portion based on tourist and cultural site by UAE’s their population. In the budget, it was Company Marsa Zayed. The authorities also underlined that if the Kurds did not are expecting that it will attract nearly a export their share of oil then the $25 billion investment by the end of allocation would be further reduced. 2025. The full functioning of the port Previously, Kurds boycotted the will help Jordan to deal with the difficult parliament budget session and debated economic situation as well. — over these points. The Kurds urged ANSAMED President Masum to veto the budget, while others have threatened a lawsuit. 37. More Oil Explored in Egypt Popular Mobilization Unit leaders also CAIRO (24 April): SDX Energy has complained as the budget does not announced one more new discovery. compensate their forces as compared to the regular Iraqi army unit. This led The Well was drilled down to 5,250 feet Iraqi PM Haider al-Abadi to issue a and encountered 43 feet of net heavy oil decree to formally assimilate the PMU pay, across the Yusr and Bakr into the Iraqi armed forces, with equal pay and responsibility. Abadi has been

delaying this process fearing the US oilfields by the Basrah Gas Company reactions. But with the election (BGC). Fuel oil supplies are rallying as approaching, Abadi had to change his damaged refineries are repaired. — tune to secure PMU’s support to seek MEES victory. — The Baghdad Post, Iraqi Civil Society 41. KRG Eyes Major Support for Future Output Gains 39. Iran Signs Contract with Russia on Two Oil Fields ERBIL (23 March): Ali Nazir al-Shatari, Deputy Director General of Iraqi state oil TEHRAN (16 March) Iran has managed marketer Somo says “his organization is to secure a second contract after signing ready to market Kirkuk oil if Baghdad up with Total and CNPC for South Pars Phase 11 in June 2011. Russian firm resumes piped exports to Turkey’s Zarubezhneft has signed a contract to Ceyhan through the KRG’s export link. develop two oil fields for Iran in West But, he says that all Iraqi crude sold via Paydar and Aban, partnered by domestic firm, Dana Energy. Turkey must be marketed by Somo, and that there cannot be a return to the The Russian firm will reportedly situation where the KRG marketed its increase the production from 36,000 output, and Somo marketed North Oil b/d to 48,000 b/d during the 10-year contract. The contract is for $742m. — Company’s production.” According to MEES the Middle East business analysis magazine MEES, the decision is not up 40. Iraq Eyes 70,000 B/D to Somo, should Baghdad and Erbil Refinery Boost by End of 2018 come to an agreement whereby NOC can BAGHDAD (6 APRIL): Post Islamic export via the KRG’s pipeline. But if the State, Iraq is trying to keep up with the KRG continues to independently market demand for its refined oil products. Iraq its crude, then Somo will have little is planning to upgrade its Basra refinery. option. However, Iraqi PM Haider al- This will boost Iraq’s federal refining capacity by more than 10% by the end of Abadi says that a preliminary agreement 2018. Iraq’s oil ministry announced on has been reached with KRG to export oil 4April that a fourth 70,000 b/d crude through the autonomous region’s distillation unit at the refinery is due 700,000 b/d pipeline to Turkey. This online by end-2018, taking the plant’s raises the prospect of an end to the shut- capacity to 280,000 b/d. Meanwhile, in of 280,000 b/d of Kirkuk crude. On Iraqi’s sales gas volume hit a new record the other hand, despite the ongoing of 1.3bn cfd in January. Although uncertainty in Erbil and Baghdad, IOC is January’s total gas production was slightly below December’s monthly planning to advance with their investing. record of 2.843bn cfd, the reduced According to MEES report, Bawi asset flaring is a result of increasing (100%) contains a “Jurassic oil reservoir associated gas recovery from the [that] can be developed entirely Rumaila, West Qurna-1 and Zubair separately to gas.” This potentially paves

the way for expedited stand-alone Minister, Tarek Kabil. The committee development of the field’s 37mn barrels reviewed the prospects of cooperation in (2C) oil reserves. — MEES 13 developmental sectors — including industry, trade, customs, technology,

tourism, finance, metrology, electricity, 42. Qatar Airways to Add 11 New Fleets in 2018 renewable energy, water resources, transport and aviation. DOHA (4 April): Qatar airways is to expand its fleet by adding 11 new fleets The meeting was also attended by a this year. Qatar Airways Group Chief number of businessmen and investors Executive Akbar Al Baker announced at from both the countries. UAE is among a press conference on the sidelines of the the top trading partners of Egypt. On the 31st edition of IATA Ground Handling Services that the airways is to launch 16 sidelines of this meeting, UAE Foreign new destinations in 2018 and 2019. The Minister Sheikh Abdullah bin Zayed Al new destinations include London Nahyan mentioned that UAE and Egypt Gatwick and Cardiff (United Kingdom); face challenges against Iran, Israel and Lisbon (Portugal); Tallinn (Estonia); Turkey for their aggression on Arab Valletta (Malta); Langkawi (Malaysia); territories. — Gulf News, Arab News Da Nang (Vietnam); Bodrum and Antalya (Turkey); Mykonos (Greece) and 44.Bahrain Finds Largest Oil Málaga (Spain). Reserve Since 1932 MANAMA (2 April): Bahrain announced Qatari Minister of Transport and Communications, H E Jassim bin Saif Al its largest discovery of oil since 1932 in Sulaiti mentioned that hosting IATA Khaleej al Bahrain basin with potential Ground Handling Services conference of around $80 million of tight oil. The signifies that Qatar still enjoys country is the smallest producer of confidence in the region. hydrocarbons in GCC with oil producing capacity of 50,000 barrels per day and The conference was organized at Doha one billion cubic feet of natural gas per Sheraton resort and convention hotel day. In addition, a separate natural gas and more than 700 international reserve of 13.7 trillion cubic feet (tcf) has delegates from more than twelve been found below Bahrain’s main gas countries participated in it. – The Peninsular Qatar reservoir. The new find is located close to the existing oil fields, which reduces 43. UAE, Egypt Explore the cost of extraction, though due to Cooperation in 13 Sectors geological challenges it is difficult to extract. Agreements have been made CAIRO (17 March): UAE-Egypt with oil field services of Halliburton for Economic Committee meeting was held the commercial extraction of oil. The at Cairo in the presence of Sultan Bin discovery comes at a time when Bahrain Saeed Al Mansouri, Minister of Economy, UAE, and Egypt’s Trade

is dependent on other GCC countries for contribution to GDP from 40 to 65 % by sustaining its economy. –The National 2030. Investment will be sought in establishing new schools, universities 45. GCC Companies to Go Public: and health centres. The programme MARKAZ which is part of vision 2030 sets out three objectives: Developing a general KUWAIT (7 March): Kuwait Financial legal framework for policies related to Centre (MARKAZ) reported in its privatization; establishing monthly market report that Saudi Arabia organizational foundations and and UAE are to see enhanced IPO dedicated institutions to execute the activity and nearly 30 GCC companies policies; and setting a timescale for their are expected to go public. This is in delivery. –Arab News keeping with the 2017 trend which saw seventeen issues raising $ 2.95 billion. Initial public offerings are making a INDIA AND THE REGION comeback as slowdown in economic growth forced companies to rethink 46. President Hosts King of about raising funds for sale of shares as Jordan it might not bring proper returns and NEW DELHI (2 March): Jordanian King valuations for their businesses. Abdullah II Ibn Al Hussein visited India Saudi approval of a new bankruptcy law on 1 March 2018 and was received by that providesforeign investors with a The President of India, Ram Nath legal vehicle to recoup assets in cases of Kovind, at Rashtrapati Bhavan. solvency, opened the way for more interest in equity markets. –AME Info, In the welcome note to MARKAZ the King Abdullah II Ibn Al Hussein, the President said that “Jordan has remained stable and peaceful in a 46. Saudi Privatization Program Gets Green troubled region. This has been possible Light because of the stellar and visionary leadership of King Abdullah II. India RIYADH (25 April): Saudi Arabia’s deeply appreciates the lead he has taken Council of Economic and Development [in] tackling radicalisation through the Affairs headed by Crown Prince Aqaba process. The President stated that Mohammed bin Salman approved the terrorism is challenging us on a daily Saudi privatization programme aimed at increasing job opportunities, attracting basis. Therefore, we need to work latest technologies and innovations and together to defeat it”. boosting economic development. It will The President highlighted the enhance local and foreign investment importance of India’s relations with while resting supervisory and regulatory Jordan and said that our phosphate role to public and government entities. It related joint ventures are doing well. He aims at increasing private sector emphasized that there is huge

opportunity to augment trade and 48. Egyptian Foreign investment between the two, particularly Minister Visits India NEW DELHI (23 March): The Minister in the fields of IT, infrastructure, of Foreign Affairs of the Arab Republic pharma and tourism. — Press of Egypt, H.E. Sameh Shoukry paid a Information Bureau visit to India from March 22-23, 2018. 47. India, Jordan Ink 12 During his visit, the 7th Session of India- Egypt Joint Commission Meeting was Pacts; One on Defence held on March 23, 2018 in New Delhi. Cooperation External Affairs Minister Smt. Sushma Swaraj led the Indian side and both NEW DELHI (1 March 2018): India and leaders had intense discussions over a Jordan have decided to setup defence wide range of bilateral issues and to find cooperation between the two countries, possible ways to deepen and expand to fight terrorism and prevent cyber bilateral cooperation between the security crimes. countries. The decision was taken in a meeting that The important regional, international was held in New Delhi between Prime and multilateral issues affecting both the Minister Narendra Modi and Jordanian countries were also discussed. H.E. Shoukry also “called on the Prime King Abdullah II to discuss the key Minister Shri Narendra Modi and strategic issues and made it clear “that handed over a letter to him from the terrorism and radicalization are not President of Egypt H.E. Mr. Abdel linked to any religion”. Fattah El-Sisi”. —Ministry of External During the meeting, the two leaders Affairs discussed a wide range of issues starting from Syrian problem to Palestine issue. 49. Good Conduct After extensive discussion, the two sides Certificate for UAE Visa inked 12 agreements comprising the Suspended areas related to “defence, health and ABU DHABI (1 April): From April 1, the medicine, setting up of the next UAE’s Ministry of Human Resources generation Centre of Excellence (COE) and Emiratization postponed the good in Jordan, long-term supply of rock conduct certificate requirement for visa phosphate and fertiliser and setting up processing. It was made a mandatory of setting up of a Hindi Chair at the condition for the employment visa from Jordan University”. During the visit, the 4 February . On 29 March, UAE’s Jordanian king also visited the National Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Security Guard (NSG) training camp, International Cooperation (MoFA) where he was shown the special combat informed the embassies and consulates skills of the NSG. The positive responses across the UAE about the non- from both the leaders have raised the requirement of the good conduct possibility of a wider India-Jordan certificate. The Philippine Consul collaboration. — PTI

General to Dubai welcomed the decision implemented, it will add KD 50-60 while the Indian ambassador to the UAE billion to state coffers. This move is a Navdeep Singh Suri, said it was a great part of Kuwaiti effort to stabilize its development. "(It) will remove the economy since oil price drop of 2014. uncertainties that had emerged since the Kuwait has imposed several fees on requirement for a Good Conduct expatriates including hiking electricity, Certificate was introduced in February. water and medical charges. We continue to work closely with our Taxation on expat money can affect friends in the Ministry of Human Indian economy as amount of Resources and Emiratization to ensure a remittances ought to go down and illegal streamlined and orderly process for means of money transfer may abound. recruitment of Indian workers and 0.9 Million Indians work in Kuwait and professionals into UAE." India receives in 2016 India received $ 4.173 billion as more than US $ 8 million as remittances remittance from Kuwait.- Kuwait Times from Gulf countries. — Gulf News, Khaleej Times 51. GCC States Plan a Company for Direct Money

Transfer 50. Tax on Expat Money RIYADH (13 March): GCC countries Transfers Might Become Reality in plan a company for direct money Kuwait transfer among member countries

without relying on foreign currencies KUWAIT (25 March): The Kuwait like the US dollar. All GCC countries National Assembly’s financial and including Qatar has agreed to provide economic affairs committee intends to the initial capital after which the impose taxes on money transfer by company will have to borrow from the expatriates despite financial and Gulf market or use the initial generated legislative restrictions. MP Safa al capital. Hashem submitted a proposal to impose The company will be based in Riyadh a 5% tax on any money transfer by with secondary office in UAE and central expatriates though the Kuwait Central bank governors of six GCC countries will Bank. In this context, the Kuwait Central be members of the board. In December, Bank noted that the proposal to impose UAE’s Central Bank Governor Mubarak 5% tax is a counterproductive move as it Rashed al-Mansouri confirmed plans to will boost black market dealings. On the issue a digital currency for cross border other hand, the legal and legislative transaction with Saudi Arabia. committee, labelled this move as Name of the proposed company and discriminatory as it does not apply to CEO are yet to be confirmed while it is citizens. None of the other GCC expected that it will start functioning in countries tax expat money transfers. The second half of 2018. — Gulf Business, head of financial and economic affairs International Investment committee Salah Khorshid said that if

up their respective assignments soon. — 52. Indian Oil Company Gets Ministry of External Affairs 17% stake in Oman oil field Oman-India Sports Meet to Boost Ties MUSCAT (7 April): Indian Oil MUSCAT (21April ): The Indian Corporation Limited (IOCL) acquired 17 Embassy in Oman is organizing, the % participating interest in Mukhaizna oil 2018 Oman-India Sports Meet, in field of Oman by acquiring 100 % equity collaboration with the Indian Social stake in Shell Exploration & Production Club’s (ISC) Malayalam Wing and the Oman Ltd. IOCL mentioned in a filing to Sultanate’s Ministry of Sports and Youth the Bombay stock exchange that it Affairs, to commemorate 70 years of transacted for a value of $ 329 million. Indian independence. The six-month- This is IOCL’s first acquisition in Oman long sports festival will start on 4 May, and is done through its wholly owned will see teams from both nations compete in six sports: football, subsidiary in Oman IOCL Singapore Pte volleyball, cricket, hockey, badminton Limited. Mukhaizna oil field I operated and athletics. The event will register the by Occidental Mukhaizna, Oman Oil participation of nearly 15,000 athletes Company, Liwa Energy Limited, Total from India and Oman to strengthen the E&P Oman, and Partex Oman bilateral ties between the two countries. corporation. Mukhaizna is the largest — Times of Oman individual oilfield in Oman with production capacity of 120,000 barrels (Prepared by Jatin Kumar, Lakshmi per day contributing about 13 % of total Priya and Nagapushpa Devendra) Omani crude production. Indian oil said (Prepared by Jatin Kumar, Lakshmi that this acquisition will augment India's Priya and Nagapushpa Devendra) energy security as well as enhance India's stature in the global political and economic arena. - Muscat Daily, Forbes Middle East

Indian Ambassadors to Turkey and Egypt

NEW DELHI (19 April): Mr. Sanjay Bhattacharya, presently Ambassador of India to the Arab Republic of Egypt has been appointed as the next Ambassador of India to the Republic of Turkey. Meanwhile, Mr Rahul Kulshreshth, current Ambassador of India to the Republic of Turkey will be the next Ambassador of India to the Republic of Egypt. Both of them are expected to take