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Mullahs, Guards, and Bonyads: an Exploration of Iranian Leadership

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Mullahs, Guards, and Bonyads: an Exploration of Iranian Leadership THE ARTS This PDF document was made available CHILD POLICY from www.rand.org as a public service of CIVIL JUSTICE the RAND Corporation. EDUCATION ENERGY AND ENVIRONMENT Jump down to document6 HEALTH AND HEALTH CARE INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS The RAND Corporation is a nonprofit NATIONAL SECURITY research organization providing POPULATION AND AGING PUBLIC SAFETY objective analysis and effective SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY solutions that address the challenges SUBSTANCE ABUSE facing the public and private sectors TERRORISM AND HOMELAND SECURITY around the world. TRANSPORTATION AND INFRASTRUCTURE Support RAND WORKFORCE AND WORKPLACE Purchase this document Browse Books & Publications Make a charitable contribution For More Information Visit RAND at www.rand.org Explore the RAND National Defense Research Institute View document details Limited Electronic Distribution Rights This document and trademark(s) contained herein are protected by law as indicated in a notice appearing later in this work. This electronic representation of RAND intellectual property is provided for non-commercial use only. Unauthorized posting of RAND PDFs to a non-RAND Web site is prohibited. RAND PDFs are protected under copyright law. Permission is required from RAND to reproduce, or reuse in another form, any of our research documents for commercial use. For information on reprint and linking permissions, please see RAND Permissions. This product is part of the RAND Corporation monograph series. RAND monographs present major research findings that address the challenges facing the public and private sectors. All RAND mono- graphs undergo rigorous peer review to ensure high standards for research quality and objectivity. Mullahs, Guards, and Bonyads An Exploration of Iranian Leadership Dynamics David E. Thaler, Alireza Nader, Shahram Chubin, Jerrold D. Green, Charlotte Lynch, Frederic Wehrey Prepared for the Office of the Secretary of Defense Approved for public release; distribution unlimited NATIONAL DEFENSE RESEARCH INSTITUTE The research described in this report was prepared for the Office of the Secretary of Defense (OSD). The research was conducted in the RAND National Defense Research Institute, a federally funded research and development center sponsored by the OSD, the Joint Staff, the Unified Combatant Commands, the Department of the Navy, the Marine Corps, the defense agencies, and the defense Intelligence Community under Contract W74V8H-06-C-0002. Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data is available for this publication. ISBN 978-0-8330-4773-1 The RAND Corporation is a nonprofit research organization providing objective analysis and effective solutions that address the challenges facing the public and private sectors around the world. RAND’s publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions of its research clients and sponsors. R® is a registered trademark. Cover image courtesy of Associated Press. © Copyright 2010 RAND Corporation Permission is given to duplicate this document for personal use only, as long as it is unaltered and complete. Copies may not be duplicated for commercial purposes. Unauthorized posting of RAND documents to a non-RAND Web site is prohibited. RAND documents are protected under copyright law. For information on reprint and linking permissions, please visit the RAND permissions page (http://www.rand.org/publications/permissions.html). Published 2010 by the RAND Corporation 1776 Main Street, P.O. Box 2138, Santa Monica, CA 90407-2138 1200 South Hayes Street, Arlington, VA 22202-5050 4570 Fifth Avenue, Suite 600, Pittsburgh, PA 15213-2665 RAND URL: http://www.rand.org To order RAND documents or to obtain additional information, contact Distribution Services: Telephone: (310) 451-7002; Fax: (310) 451-6915; Email: [email protected] Preface The Islamic Republic of Iran poses serious challenges to U.S. inter- ests in the Middle East, and its nuclear program continues to worry, and bring condemnation and sanction from, the international com- munity. Yet the U.S. ability to “read” the regime in Tehran and for- mulate appropriate policies has been handicapped by the lack of access to Iran experienced by U.S. diplomats and other citizens and by what many observers lament as the opacity of Iranian decisionmaking pro- cesses. The objective of this book is to offer a framework to help U.S. policymakers and analysts better understand existing and evolving leadership dynamics driving Iranian decisionmaking. The research herein provides not only a basic primer on the structure, institutions, and personalities of the government and other influential power cen- ters but also a better understanding of Iranian elite behavior as a driver of Iranian policy formulation and execution. The book pays special attention to emerging fissures within the regime, competing centers of power, and the primacy of informal networks—a particularly impor- tant yet not well understood hallmark of the Iranian system. While our aim is to expand analysts’ understanding of Iran so as to help them interpret the machinations of the country’s elites, we have a profound appreciation of the complexity and historical impen- etrability of Iran’s political system. The motivations and behavior of the Iranian political elite have been the subject of numerous books and articles over the past several decades. One of the attributes of Iranian elite dynamics is the fact that the rules of the game are constantly in flux and are nowhere codified. Although participants certainly know the rules, for outside observers to understand them is naturally dif- iii iv Mullahs, Guards, and Bonyads ficult. We therefore admit our ability to paint no more than a partial picture of the Iranian system. We do, however, hope to add substance, interpretation, and nuance to Western understanding of policymaking in the Islamic Republic of Iran. Our overall goal is to provide insight into the character of the Iranian “system,” not to detail the pieces and interrelationships themselves. The bulk of the research for this book was completed before the momentous Iranian presidential election of June 12, 2009, and its aftermath. The election appears to have heralded a sea change in Ira- nian leadership dynamics that will play out over months and years. At the time of writing in summer 2009, it is too early to determine the full ramifications of street protests challenging the election results and the government crackdown. Nevertheless, Iran’s political system appears to be in a state of flux. Previously a somewhat consensus-driven system with the Supreme Leader acting as an “arbiter” above the factional fray, Iran appears to be moving toward a more authoritarian system in which Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and a small inner circle composed of close advisors and senior Revolutionary Guards members make key decisions. Where possible, we attempt to add postelection context to our analysis. However, a full understanding of the extent and nature of change in the system will be left to future research. This research was sponsored by the Department of Defense and conducted within the Intelligence Policy Center of the RAND National Defense Research Institute, a federally funded research and development center sponsored by the Office of the Secretary of Defense, the Joint Staff, the Unified Combatant Commands, the Depart- ment of the Navy, the Marine Corps, the defense agencies, and the defense Intelligence Community. For more information on RAND’s Intelligence Policy Center, contact the Director, John Parachini. He can be reached by email at [email protected]; by phone at 703-413-1100, extension 5579; or by mail at the RAND Corpora- tion, 1200 South Hayes Street, Arlington, Virginia 22202-5050. More information about RAND is available at www.rand.org. Contents Preface ............................................................................. iii Figures ............................................................................. ix Summary .......................................................................... xi Acknowledgments .............................................................. xxi Abbreviations .................................................................. xxiii CHAPTER ONE Introduction: Leadership Dynamics in the Islamic Republic of Iran .............................................................. 1 CHAPTER TWO Assertiveness and Caution in Iranian Strategic Culture .................. 5 Iran: The Conquering and Conquered Nation ................................. 6 Nationalism as a Tool of Policy ................................................ 9 A New Revolutionary Paradigm ................................................13 Exporting the Revolution .....................................................14 From Revolution to Pragmatism—and Back Again? .........................16 The End of Pragmatism? .......................................................17 Challenges to Iranian Power .....................................................19 CHAPTER THREE Formal Structures of the Islamic Republic..................................21 The Supreme Leader ............................................................. 24 The President ......................................................................25 The Majles ......................................................................... 27 The Assembly of Experts ........................................................ 28 v vi Mullahs, Guards, and Bonyads The Guardian Council ...........................................................29 The Expediency
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