Jerusalem 9139101 [email protected] Tel: 972-2-5633356 • Fax: 972-2-5635040

2017 Annual Assessment - Jewish People Policy Institute ANNUAL ASSESSMENT The Situation and Dynamics of the Jewish People 2017 5777 The Rise of Nationalism vs. Globalization Shiing Trends in the West The U.S. Election and Inner Polarization The Western Wall Controversey THE JEWISH PEOPLE POLICY INSTITUTE (Established by the Jewish Agency for Israel) Ltd. (CC) www.jppi.org.il Givat Ram Campus • P.O.B. 39156 Jerusalem 9139101 [email protected] Tel: 972-2-5633356 • Fax: 972-2-5635040 ISBN 978-965-7549-15-5 Partners and Members Board of Directors and Professional About JPPI of the General Meeting: Guiding Council: Sandy Baklor and Arlene Kaufman Co-Chairs The Jewish People Policy Institute (JPPI) is an independent professional policy planning think tank Stuart Eizenstat incorporated as a private non-profit company in Israel. The mission of the Institute is to ensure the thriving David Breakstone Dennis Ross of the Jewish people and the Jewish civilization by engaging in professional strategic thinking and planning as Deputy Chairman of JAFI on issues of primary concern to world Jewry. Located in Jerusalem, the concept of JPPI regarding the Jewish Associate Chair people is global, and includes aspects of major Jewish communities with Israel as one of them, at the core. Lester Crown and Charles Goodman Leonid Nevzlin on behalf of Crown Family Philanthropies JPPI’s activities are action-oriented, placing special emphasis on identifying critical options and analyzing their Members of the Board William Davidson Foundation potential impact on the future. To this end, the Institute works toward developing professional strategic and Elliott Abrams long-term policy perspectives exploring key factors that may endanger or enhance the future of the Jewish Nathan and Frances Kirsh Sandy Baklor People. JPPI provides professionals, decision-makers, and global leaders with: on behalf of the Kirsh Family Foundation Yohanna Arbib Irwin Cotler • Surveys and analyses of key situations and dynamics Irina Nevzlin Wendy Fisher • “Alerts” to emerging opportunities and threats on behalf of Nadav Foundation Sami Friedrich • Assessment of important current events and anticipated developments Robert Kapito and Jeffrey Schoenfeld Misha Galperin • Strategic action options and innovative alternatives on behalf of UJA Federation of New York Eric Goldstein • Policy option analysis Dan Halperin • Agenda setting, policy recommendations, and work plan design Michael Siegal Steve Hoffman as Chairman of the JAFI Board of Governors Alan Hoffmann JPPI's publications address six main areas of Jewish People challenges and well-being: Geopolitics Ratner Family Vernon Kurtz Impacting World Jewry; Community Bonds; Identity and Identification; Demography; Material Bernard-Henri Lévy Resources; and, Intellectual and Cultural Achievement. A full set of major publications can be found on Natan Sharansky Glen Lewy our website: www.JPPI.org.il. as Chairman of the JAFI Executive Judit Bokser Liwerant JPPI is unique in dealing with the future of the Jewish people as a whole within a methodological David Silvers Isaac Molho framework of study and policy development. Its independence is assured by its company articles, as Chairman of the JAFI Budget Steven Nasatir with a board of directors co-chaired by Ambassadors Stuart Eizenstat and Dennis Ross - both have and Finance Committee Jehuda Reinharz served in the highest echelons of the U.S. government, and Leonid Nevzlin in Israel - and composed Doron Shorer of individuals with significant policy experience. The board of directors also serves as the Institute’s The Judy and Michael Steinhardt Foundation Jerry Silverman Professional Guiding Council. Michael Steinhardt Our thanks to UJA Federation of New York, Marc Utay The Jewish Federations of North America, Aharon Yadlin The Jewish Federation of St. Louis, The Jewish Federation of Metropolitan Chicago, President and Founding Director The Jewish Federation of Cleveland, Avinoam Bar-Yosef Art Samberg, Mike Segal and Wilf Family, Projects Coordinator Alex Grass z"l and Jack Kay z"l Ita Alcalay for their support. Founding President (Emeritus) Yehezkel Dror ANNUAL ASSESSMENT 2017 5777 PROJECT HEAD Dr. Shlomo Fischer coNTRIBUtorS Avinoam Bar-Yosef, Yossi Chen, Chaya Ekstein, Dan Feferman, Matthew Gerson Avi Gil, Inbal Hakman, Michael Herzog, Dov Maimon, Gitit Paz-Levi, Steven Popper, Uzi Rebhun, Shmuel Rosner, John Ruskay, Noah Slepkov, Shalom Salomon Wald EDITORS Barry Geltman Rami Tal Copyright © The Jewish People Policy Institute (JPPI) (Established by the Jewish Agency for Israel) Ltd. (CC) Jerusalem 2017/5777 JPPI, Givat Ram Campus, P.O.B 39156, Jerusalem 9139101, Israel Telephone: 972-2-5633356 | Fax: 972-2-5635040 | www.jppi.org.il All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be translated, reproduced, stored in a retrieval system or transmitted, in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise, without express written permission from the publisher. Printed and Distributed by the Jewish People Policy Institute Graphic Design: Lotte Design Cover Design: Shlomit Wolf, Lotte Design ISBN 978-965-7549-18-6 Table of Contents Introduction by Stuart Eizenstat and Dennis Ross . 5 PART 1: Suggested Policy Directions Integrated ‘Net’ Assessment Recommended Policy Directions . 13 2017 Integrated Net Assessment . 15 Selected Indicators of World Jewry – 2017. .. 32 PART 2: Dimensions of Jewish Well-Being Geopolitics The Geopolitical Landscape - Growing Uncertainty in light of the Trump Presidency . 39 JPPI’s 2017 Brainstorming Conference – Integrative Summary . .. .. 67 Comprehensive Three-Dimensional Anti-Semitism Index . 85 Demography Israelis Abroad . 97 Bonds Within and Between Communities Putting the Kotel Decision in Context – Implications and Steps Forward . 117 2017 Structured Jewish World Dialogue – Interim Report . 130 Identity Formation and Expression The Rise of Orthodoxy and Political-Cultural Polarization within the Jewish Community in the U.S. .. 131 The Ongoing Debate Concerning Jewish Identity, Jewish Marriage Patterns, and Jewish Children . 143 Re-Emergence of a Diasporistic Jewish Identity in Europe . 147 Material Resources Jewish People Ways and Means . .. 157 People of the Book Creativity and the Factors that Drive Intellectual and Cultural Achievements . 173 PART 3: Feature Articles The Arabs of Israel between “Israelization” and “Palestinization” .. 195 Introduction by 1 Stuart Eizenstat and Dennis Ross The idea of doing an Annual Assessment of the and Trump votes. The reality of globalization – state of the Jewish people was novel when JPPI driven by technologies that continue to accelerate first decided to produce it 14 years ago. While the pace of change, generate and exploit big the scope of each year’s report has changed and data, create new supply chains, and shrink the the measures used to evaluate basic trends have planet – cannot be denied or wished away. But been developed, the annual assessment has the social and economic dislocations created by provided a good yardstick to judge how Israel and globalization have not been sufficiently taken into the Diaspora fared in the preceding year. Initially, account, particularly in the Western democracies. at least, there was not an expectation that there Not surprisingly, distrust of elites and populist, would necessarily be dramatic changes from year nationalist appeals to those most negatively to year – even though the metrics used to make affected by the impact of globalization have been judgments (geopolitical realities, demographics, the result. identity and identification, inter-communal Traditionally, the emergence of populism and its bonds, and resources) offered the possibility of xenophobic companion have been accompanied identifying such changes or developments if they by a growth in anti-Semitism. JPPI held a had taken place. brainstorming conference to discuss the current That said, 2016-2017 certainly stands out as a year international setting, the social, economic, of surprising developments. The backlash against political, and ideological shifts in the West, globalization figured prominently in the Brexit indicators of increased anti-Semitism, and how THE JEWISH PEOPLE POLICY INSTITUTE 5 Israel and the Diaspora could deal with potential “differentiate between developing a good working new dangers and leverage possible opportunities. relationship with the Trump administration and Six main areas posing policy dilemmas and projecting an ideological affinity to it.” challenges to decision-makers in Israel and the Other recommendations relate to particular Diaspora communities were identified in the developments in Israel and the United States. conference discussions and are included in this Given the pace of scientific change in today’s year’s assessment. One key factor that stands out world – and the hard and soft power that accrues is that the liberal international order is under to Israel because it is seen as the “start-up nation” threat, raising questions about whether the -- it is essential that Israel continue to develop the United States will continue to play the role it has human resources that keeps it developing cutting- in preserving that order, the need to take account edge technologies. To that end, it is essential that of the rise of non-Western powers, the importance the State of Israel “fulfill governmental resolutions of formulating a policy toward the rise of far- mandating all schools” include “a high level of core right parties in Europe,

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