Political Paralysis Could Leave Israel at the Mercy of Economic Crisis A

Selected articles concerning Israel, published weekly by Suburban Orthodox Toras Chaim’s (Baltimore) Israel Action Committee Edited by Jerry Appelbaum ( [email protected] ) | Founding editor: Sheldon J. Berman Z”L Issue 8 4 8 Volume 20 , Number 2 7 Parshias Matos - Masei | Shabbos Mevarchim July 1 8 , 20 20 Political Paralysis Could Leave Israel at the Mercy of Economic Crisi s By Haviv Rettig Gur timesofisrael.com July 12, 2020 A government signing checks won’t bring economic fall of 2021. Without a better picture of the virus’s spread, rehabilitation . of the likelihood of a third and fourth wave, of the At least 800,000 Israelis are unemployed, with more timetable for a vaccine, of the global economic situation added to the rolls each day. Over 1,000 virus carriers are writ large, and of the economy’s broader resilience in the now being discovered daily as the government face of social distancing measures, pr eparing a 2021 budget contemplates drastic new lockdown measures. A NIS 100 in the middle of 2020 is an exercise in frustration that will billion ($29 billion) emergency recovery and stimulus only delay the work required to turn around a more package pieced together by panicked politicians is set to appropriate 2021 bill in six months’ time. begin disbursement this coming week, adding to a NIS 80 Gantz has rejected the argument repeatedly, even after billion ($23 bi llion) one launched two months ago. Both the Finance Ministry’s budgets chief Shaul Meridor, offer only a short - lived resuscitation for the faltering Director General Keren Terner - Eyal and Accountant economy as 2020 drags through its seventh month without General Roni Hizkiyahu all concurred with Netanyahu. a comprehensive state budget. But Gantz has a point too . The recovery spending may be a desperately needed Gantz’s problem with the one - year budget is technical cushion for tens of th ousands of businesses and hundreds — but also fundamental. The coalition agree ment states of thousands of newly unemployed, but it won’t deal that if the government is toppled before Gantz gets to effectively with the fallout from the virus or replace the serve as prime minister, then Gantz takes over careful rebalancing of national priorities that the country automatically as premier for the duration of the interim needs and that only a full - fledged budget law allo ws. A government until election day. It’s a stipulation meant to government signing checks isn’t a sustainable model for ensure Netanyahu doesn’t t opple the government early to stemming the bleeding and managing an economic prevent Gantz from becoming prime minister, as it would rehabilitation. hand Gantz the premier’s chair in such a scenario. But that Yet that desperately needed state budget bill isn’t automatic rotation is canceled, the agreement states, if advancing. It’s stuck in a political stalemate that saw its Gantz himself topples the government by failing to vo te presentation to the government delayed twice over the for the state budget. Reducing the budget law from two past week. It was originally scheduled to be presented to years to one grants Netanyahu an exit ramp from his the cabinet last Thursday, July 9. That was pushed to agreement; he need only pick a fight with Gantz over the Sunday, then pushed again to next Thursday. Officials 2021 budget. refused to commit over the weekend to July 16 as the ne w Even if Gantz believes the finance officials, he’s deadline. suspicious at Netanyahu’s sudden good fortune. The delays are not in themselves a crisis. A week’s So, too, are Netanyahu’s allies in Likud and in the delay is no terrible setback for a stupendously complex Haredi parties. state budget bill reaching into the NIS 400 billion ($116 On Thursday, Shas leader Aryeh Deri, fearful of new billion) range. The trouble with the delay is its cause: elections that might delay the budget law, and with it delay Treasury officials are done hashi ng out the numbers, but desperately needed funds for Haredi seminaries and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Defense Minister sc hools, reportedly shouted at Netanyahu during a call that Benny Gantz don’t trust one another enough to bring an he’s “pushing for new elections” and hung up on him. It agreed - upon bill to a cabinet vote. was an unusual sign of tension between Netanyahu and his What they want, and why Haredi allies, made even more significant by the fact that Netanyahu is demanding a one - year budget to cover Shas leaked the report abo ut the call. the immediat e problems presented by 2020, with a The trouble with an election separate budget law for 2021 to be passed by February. Gantz doesn’t want an election. If he fails to survive Gantz is insisting on a two - year budget, as stipulated by politically until November 2021 and take his seat as prime the coalition agreement between Likud and Blue and minister, his political legacy will be short and ignominious: White signed in April. he’ll be the man who broke up the most successful anti - Netanyahu has a point. Finance o fficials are Netanyahu coalition in a decade, and for what? But if he unanimous in the view that a two - year budget would make survives and becomes premier, he instantly transforms it harder to put the nation’s finances in order amid the himself into the most viable contender to rally the center pandemic. The future is too clouded to see past the second and left for the next election cycle – and vindicates the wave of the virus into the fall of 2020 — never mind the hard politi cal compromises he made to sit in a government Focus o n Israel July 18, 2020 Page 2 with Netanyahu. He’ll be the man who at long last, with coronavirus crisis in Tel Aviv on July 11, 2020 (Miriam infinite patience and political sacrifice, finally unseated Alster/Flash90) Netanyahu. Why, then, is the fight continuing? Netanyahu doesn’t want an election. He’d win, Why is Blue and White refusing the urging of the according to all polls since April. Israeli voting patterns treasury, and even of the wholly independent Bank of show a consistent advantage to force of habit. A new MK Israel, for a one - year budg et, and declining, too, the Deri - who survives into their second term is quite likely to proposed (and Haredi - backed) change to the interim survive to a fifth. Most don’t survive that first reelection. government law? It’s not very different with prime ministers; Ariel Sharon “Netanyahu is pushing with all his might for won a second term in 2003, and his popularity grew elections,” a Blue and White official told Channel 12 late steadily even as his policies changed sharply. last week. He called the recovery package a populist stand - Yet victory in an Israeli election is a function of in for the budget law that proves elections are coming – coalition - building, not just personal success. Netanyahu’s “throwing money at citizens in order to break up the Likud might win 36 seats (according to a Channe l 12 poll government by March.” And he noted, correctly, that last week), more than twice the next - largest faction, but a “even the Haredim know Netanyahu’s pushing for right - wing coalition as a whole wins just 64 seats, not very elections,” or at least suspect as much. far ahead of the 61 - vote minimum majority in the 120 - seat Likud retorted on Thursday: “All economists agree Knesset required to win the election. that Israel needs a one - year budget now, and immediately. All forecasts say Israel’s ec onomic situation is only While the prime minister works around the clock to create going to worsen in the coming months, and Netanyahu this budget alongside the coronavirus financial aid package, doesn’t want a referendum on his rule just when that crisis Blue and White is torpedoing it for political reasons.” may be peaking. Not quite. Likud’s complaint was true until Deri The solution brought his proposal to the table. How do you square the circle? How does one secure Plenty of time? for Gantz the assurances given to him in the coalition Why is Netanyahu sticking to his guns and refusing to agreement while allowing the one - year budget urged by the offer the stabilizing concession that Gantz is demanding economists? — a concession, a fter all, that would merely see him The answer is simple, and has already been proposed fulfilling his written commitments to Gantz in the to Netanyahu by Aryeh Deri: As the one - year budget bill coalition agreement? advances, pass another law that gives Gantz the interim Could it be that Netanyahu simply wants Gantz to stay premier ship — the same protection he has if Netanyahu suspicious, to keep him permanently off - guard? topples the government for a non - budget reason — if the Netanyahu’s political needs didn’t create the o ne - year 2021 budget fails. budget, but he’s not above taking advantage of it to play Gantz, too, has a simple solution, though it may create another round of petty politics. problems down the road. Pass the two - year budget on And why is Gantz willing to push ahead with a two - paper, but with the stipul ations and requirements of the year budget, which is politically sensible but, say all the 2020 budget, then immediately set to work passing an experts, bad economic policy at a time when the nation amendment to correct the 2021 portion of the law.

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