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Home , Israel Katz, Omer Yankelevich

Israel and Middle East News Update

Tuesday, December 1

Headlines: ● Gantz Set to Announce His Support to Disperse ● Blue & White Propose Gay Surrogacy Bill ● PM Poised to Review 2021 Budget Ahead of Crucial Vote ● Sisi: Supports Resumption of Israeli-Palestinian Talks ● -Lebanon Sea Border Talks Postponed ● Air Strike Kills IRGC Commander at Iraq- Border ● Opens Secret Channel to Fix Ties with Israel ● Iran MPs Advance Bill to Stop Un Nuclear Inspections

Commentary: ● Ma’ariv: “Budget Him Time’’ - By Ben Caspit

● Yedioth Ahronoth: “Crucial Unity” - By Mishka Ben-David

S. Daniel Abraham Center for Middle East Peace 1725 I St NW Suite 300, Washington, DC 20006 The Hon. Robert Wexler, President News Excerpts December 1, 2020 I24 News Gantz Set to Announce His Support to Disperse Knesset Israel could be heading toward another round of elections unless a last-minute effort to change course takes place, Channel 12 reported. Defense Minister and Alternate Prime Minister is planning to announce that his Blue & White party will support a proposal to dissolve the Knesset, according to the report. Blue & White senior members support the move, as the only remaining option for compromise would be to advance legislation that will force the rotation agreement between Gantz and Prime Minister Netanyahu to take effect. Opposition Leader urged Blue & White to “do the right thing” and vote to disperse the Knesset. Israel’s unity government, composed mainly of the & Blue and White, has been wrought by prolonged tensions between Netanyahu and Gantz. See also ‘‘Netanyahu’s Five Recycled and Broken Promises to the Right’’ ( Post)

Jerusalem Post Blue & White Propose Gay Surrogacy Bill The Knesset Blue & White faction submitted three bills that have riled its partners in Netanyahu’s governing coalition. Knesset speaker (Likud) told MKs in the Likud faction meeting that he would use his post to prevent all of the bills from passing. They include a change in surrogacy arrangements for gay men and an alteration in basic laws to strengthen equal rights and the authority of the proclamation of Israel’s independence. Gantz asked the Knesset House Committee head to advance the three bills in the hope of completing the legislative process during the current Knesset. The ultra-Orthodox faction derided the three bills, accusing him of trying to wreck the government in a gross act of electioneering. “The attempt to advance bills that increase tension and cause rifts by a party doing badly in the polls is only intended to seek a few votes,” the Shas faction said. See also ‘‘A New Left-Wing Party Won't Change the Country's Fortunes’’ (Jerusalem Post)

Israel Hayom PM Poised to Review 2021 Budget Ahead of Crucial Vote Israel’s Finance Ministry will present a long-awaited 2021 state budget to Netanyahu that will total $128.5b, a ministry source said. The budget will include 40 to 50 reforms aimed at helping the economy recover from the coronavirus pandemic and does not include any tax increases. Finance Minister Israel Katz said he intends to bring the budget to the cabinet for approval by mid-December. However, Israel's leaders are locked in a political standoff over the budget, so it is unclear whether the budget will be approved. The vote on state budget slated to take place on Dec. 23. If the budget bill fails, snap elections could be called for early next year. Israel is still using a prorated version of the 2019 budget approved in 2018. See also ‘‘Israel's Finance Minister Finally Presents His 2021 Budget as Coalition Teeters on Precipice’’ (Ha’aretz) 2 Jerusalem Post Sisi: Egypt Supports Resumption of Israeli-Palestinian Talks Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi said that Egypt supports the resumption of the peace process between Israel and the Palestinians. Sisi, who was speaking during a meeting in Cairo with Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas, said “the current stage requires solidarity and intensification of all Arab efforts to resume the peace process.” Sisi and Abbas agreed during the meeting “to continue intensive consultations and coordination in order to follow up on the steps that would be taken during the coming period to resolve the current situation by returning to the path of negotiations,” the Egyptian spokesman said. Sisi and Abbas also discussed the situation in the Hamas-ruled . Sisi told Abbas that Egypt would pursue its efforts to preserve security and stability in the coastal enclave and improve the humanitarian and economic situation there. See also ‘‘Gaza Blockade Responsible for $16b in Economic Damage, UN Agency Says’’ (Al-Monitor)

Reuters Israel-Lebanon Sea Border Talks Postponed Maritime border talks between Lebanon and Israel scheduled for Wednesday have been postponed, and US mediators will now contact the two old foes separately, Israeli and Lebanese officials said. The negotiations were launched in October, with delegations convening at a UN base to try to resolve a dispute about their maritime border that has held up hydrocarbon exploration in the potentially gas- rich area. Israeli Energy Minister said it had been agreed with the Americans that talks would be postponed for a few weeks. The talks are the culmination of three years of diplomacy by Washington. Disagreement over the sea border has discouraged oil and gas exploration near the disputed line. A Lebanese security source said the reason for the delay was Israel’s rejection of Lebanese proposals. The Iran-backed Lebanese group Hezbollah has said the talks are not a sign of peace-making with Israel. See also ‘‘Israel Welcomes Slovenia's Decision to Recognize Hezbollah as a Terrorist Organization’’ ()

Reuters Air Strike Kills IRGC Commander at Iraq-Syria Border An air strike killed a commander of Iran’s Revolutionary Guards at the Iraq-Syria border, Iraqi security officials said. They could not confirm the identity of the commander. The vehicle was carrying weapons across the Iraqi border and was hit after it had entered Syrian territory, two Iraqi security officials separately said. Iran-backed Iraqi paramilitary groups helped retrieve the bodies, the two officials said, without elaborating or giving the exact time of the incident. Local military and militia sources confirmed the account, although Reuters was unable to verify independently that an Iranian commander had been killed. The incident came just days after Iranian nuclear scientist Mohsen Fakhrizadeh was assassinated in Tehran in a killing that Iran has blamed on Israel. Iraqi officials fear a conflagration ahead of President-elect Joe Biden taking office because he is viewed as less confrontational with Iran than the Trump administration. See also ‘‘Netanyahu Prepares His Iran Cards Before Biden Takes Office’’ (Al-Monitor)

3 Al-Monitor Turkey Opens Secret Channel to Fix Ties with Israel The chief of Turkey’s national intelligence service has been holding secret talks with Israeli officials, as part of a Turkish-initiated effort to normalize relations. Three sources confirmed that meetings had taken place with Hakan Fidan representing Turkey in at least one of them, but they declined to say where. Governments typically decline to formally comment on intelligence-related issues. There has been no ambassador in either country since May 2018. Fidan is believed to have held several such meetings in the past, to discuss joint security concerns in Syria and Libya among other things, but the sources said the latest round was specifically aimed at upgrading ties back to ambassador level. There is mounting worry in Ankara that the incoming Biden administration will be less indulgent of President Recep Erdogan’s bellicosity, which has seen Turkey mount three separate incursions against the Syrian Kurds since 2016, send troops and Syrian mercenaries to Libya and Azerbaijan, and lock horns with Greece. The biggest concern is that, unlike President Trump, Biden will not shield Turkey from sanctions over its purchase of Russian S-400 missiles and for Turkish state lender Halkbank’s paramount role in facilitating Iran’s multibillion-dollar illicit oil for gold trade. See also ‘‘Turkey’s Hamas-Supporting Regime Is Seeking to Use Israel Again’’ (Jerusalem Post)

Times of Israel Iran MPs Advance Bill to Stop Un Nuclear Inspections Iran’s parliament advanced a bill that would end UN inspections of its nuclear facilities and require the government to boost its uranium enrichment if European signatories to the 2015 nuclear deal do not provide relief from oil and banking sanctions. The vote to debate the bill, which would need to pass through several other stages before becoming law, was a show of defiance after the killing of the alleged mastermind of Iran’s military nuclear program over the weekend. The official IRNA news agency said 251 lawmakers in the 290-seat chamber voted in favor, after which many began chanting “Death to America!” and “Death to Israel!’’. The bill would give European countries 3 months to ease sanctions on Iran’s key oil and gas sector, and to restore its access to the international banking system. The US imposed crippling sanctions on Iran after President Trump unilaterally withdrew from the nuclear agreement, triggering a series of escalations between the two sides. The bill would have authorities resume enriching uranium to 20%, which is below the threshold needed for nuclear weapons but higher than that required for civilian applications. It would also commission new centrifuges at nuclear facilities at Natanz and the underground Fordo site. The bill was first tabled in parliament in August but gained new momentum after the killing Fakhrizadeh, seen by Israel as the “father” of Iran’s nuclear weapons program. See also ‘‘IAEA Chief: Iran Has Nothing to Gain From Halting Inspections’’ (I24 News)

4 Ma’ariv – December 1, 2020 Budget Him Time By Ben Caspit ● Dear Alternate Prime Minister, Defense Minister and Blue & White Chairman Benny Gantz. You must have seen yesterday the “prime minister’s statement,” which he delivered in cold blood and audaciously, tapping into the best of his skills. He stood there and without batting an eye called for “unity,” even though he knows that the only thing that might possibly extricate Israel from its current deep crisis is a budget. He has already pledged to pass a budget, he signed an agreement to pass a budget, he promised to pass a budget and he swore to pass a budget—yet never did he even consider doing that. The astonishing thing is that there are still quite a few people in Israel in 2020 who fail to understand that. ● They hear Netanyahu pin the blame on the suckers who believed him (in other words, on you), and they lap it up. Here is a proposal: opt for a compromise, Gantz. Make a public, explicit and specific offer to Netanyahu, an absolutely last offer. Tell him that Blue & White is prepared to extend the deadline for passing a budget by a month. Netanyahu can choose any date he wishes in January 2021 to serve as the new deadline. After the date has been set, Netanyahu will then be asked to deliver a speech from the Knesset podium in which he will personally pledge that the budget will be put to a cabinet vote for approval in the course of December and will be put to all three votes in the Knesset needed to pass it into law on the designated date in January. He will then be asked to promise yet again: no tricks, no shticks, no gambits and no shortcuts. ● That public pledge will have to be given from the Knesset podium, and not in a television studio, where Netanyahu is accustomed to lying wholesale. It must be an unequivocal, clear and unconditional commitment that can’t be withdrawn. The MKs will hear, as will the Israeli public, and they will all be the judge. Onward: on the day that the biannual budget is approved by the cabinet (December 23), the cabinet will also confirm all of the appointments of top civil servants. ● If those two things happen, Blue & White will agree to wait until the allotted day in January. If, as everyone expects, Netanyahu breaks his promise once again and finds a new reason for postponing a vote on the budget, everyone in Israel will know what a certified crook he is, and Israel will hold a new general election. If the budget is approved, hell will freeze over, the seas will evaporate—but Israel will benefit and perhaps an utterly unimaginable miracle might occur and you, Benny Gantz, will become prime minister next year. But let’s deal with the trouble at hand first. In the meantime, it’s important that you come to realize that you are losing the last vestiges of your party. You have failed to display leadership, you have failed to be collegial, you haven’t set a clear course forward and you’ve mainly spent your time deliberating. In your current situation, the only choice you have now is to do the right thing as quickly as possible with your head held high. I believe that you have the necessary skills of persuasion to get the above-cited proposal (or any other proposal) approved by Minister Omer Yankelevich, and after that—the sky is the limit. Good luck. 5 Yedioth Ahronoth – December 1, 2020 Crucial Unity By Mishka Ben-David ● The coronavirus forced the issue of the Haredi and Arab sectors’ separatism into plain view after many members of both communities ignored the government- issued directives. The danger that this poses is not just to the general public’s health, but to the State of Israel’s very essence, a danger that is going to gradually increase until the collapse of Jewish-Zionist and liberal foundations that the state is built on. While it might be nice to hope for a united and peaceful country, burying our heads in the sand is only likely to hasten its decline. The Haredi sector is roughly a million people strong. The members of that sector are subordinate to their rabbis, and not to the state’s institutions. That sector does not shoulder its share of the security burden (the scope of military and national service performed by members of the Haredi community is miniscule), and it is an economic millstone around the state’s neck. The state invests enormous sums of money in the separatist Haredi school system—Talmud Torahs and yeshivas—and a significant percentage of the child allowances are paid out to families in the Haredi sector. ● The Arab Israeli population is currently roughly 1.5 million people strong, along with another quarter of a million Arab residents of East Jerusalem. The parties that represent the Arab Israeli sector may be divided over religious issues, but they are united in their opposition to Israel’s Jewish and Zionist essence, and they identify with the Palestinian narrative. The scope of military and national service performed by members of the Arab sector is also very low. The Haredi and Arab parties’ MKs account for roughly one- quarter of all MKs, but 45% of all first grade pupils are either Haredim or Arabs. According to Central Bureau of Statistics projections, within a generation and a half they will account for more than 50% of all residents of Israel and will be the main electoral force in the country. That is an hourglass that is running out on the Zionist narrative, which will be subsumed by the Haredi and Palestinian narratives. ● Steps need to be taken to reverse that trend in order to preserve Israel’s character as a Zionist, Jewish and democratic country. For example, the state needs to strip any school that fails to teach core curriculum, including civics, of its license and funding. Military and/or national service needs to be made compulsory. Furthermore, legislation needs to be passed stipulating that National Insurance Institute stipends are to be paid for up to three or four children only; it is unreasonable to demand that the secular public be the primary financier of a trend that is going to turn it into a minority that serves the other residents of the country. But who is capable of doing the above? ● Recognition of the strategic threat that is posed by those two separatist groups to the State of Israel’s character obliges everyone to rise above the standard divisions of left and right political blocs and to rise above personal hatreds to form a broad coalition that is comprised of all the democratic, liberal and Zionist forces in Israel—which constitute an absolute majority of the MKs in the Knesset. The Likud is incapable of retaining its hold on power without the Haredi parties, and it won’t act against them. 6 ● , as long as it continues to include the Jewish Home and the National Union factions, won’t disavow the Haredim either. The Joint Arab List, on the other side of the divide, won’t support measures that will affect the Arab Israelis, and which might curtail its strength at all. The measures that need to be taken to end the separatist threat posed by the Haredim and the Arabs can only be implemented if all the secular, liberal and Zionist forces unite. They can comprise , -Telem, Blue & White, Derech Eretz, the Labor Party and . The only chance that those parties have of forming the next government is if they unite on the basis of their shared positions or, at the very least, if they create a technical bloc. Allow me to propose a name for that block: Halutz—The Secular, Liberal and Zionist Bloc. With a view to the new elections on the horizon, the strategic threat posed by the separatist forces in Israel ought to prompt the parties that represent the liberal-Zionist majority to join forces and to unite so as to preserve the State of Israel’s most fundamental values.

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