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UK Commercial & Residential Property Markets UK Commercial & Residential Property Markets Review: December 2018 | 1 UK Commercial & Residential Property Markets Review: December 2018 | 2 CONTENTS Economic overview page 3 Residential property - National sales page 5 - London sales page 6 - London new homes page 7 - National lettings page 8 - London lettings page 9 Commercial property - London office market page 11 - Retail market page 11 Investment market - Residential page 12 - Commercial page 13 Contact page 14 UK Commercial & Residential Property Markets Review: December 2018 | 3 ECONOMIC OVERVIEW GDP Growth After a solid start to Q4, GDP growth faltered somewhat in October and the business surveys suggest that output barely increased at all in November. Moreover, household spending weakened considerably over the last month and there is growing evidence that the impact of Brexit uncertainty on the economy is starting to intensify. The boost to exports from the pound’s post-referendum fall has all but run its course and other survey measures for Q4, such as the export orders balance of the manufacturing PMI, point to weak growth in goods exports. Nonetheless, the Treasury’s panel of independent forecasters held its December forecast GDP growth rate for 2018 at 1.3% and pointed to GDP growth accelerating to 1.5% in 2019. At the time of writing, Brexit remains up in the air with various outcomes possible. It seems highly unlikely that Parliament will approve the Prime Minister’s deal agreed with the EU and equally unlikely that the EU will grant any further concessions. A “no deal” scenario is also unlikely to get through Parliament, which leaves us with the prospect of a No Confidence vote in the Commons with another General Election to follow if a new government with the support of a majority of MPs cannot be formed within a period of 14 calendar days. A change of government, another referendum and/or a unilateral revoking of Article 50 courtesy of a European Court of Justice 11th hour ruling (thereby keeping the UK in the EU) are all possible outcomes – none of which is likely to prove any less divisive than the current position. Figure 1: UK GDP growth outlook Source: HM Treasury Forecast Panel 3.0% 2.5% 2.0% 1.8% 1.7% 1.7% 1.6% 1.5% 1.5% 1.3% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 UK Commercial & Residential Property Markets Review: December 2018 | 4 Inflation & interest rates NEXT ONS RELEASE: 19 DEC CPI inflation dropped at 2.2% in November and RPI inflation fell to 3.2%. The Treasury’s forecast panel projects CPI inflation will stabilise at 2.0% in 2019, while RPI inflation will settle at 3.0%. The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee did not meet in December and Bank Rate therefore remains at 0.75%. UK 3 month Libor rates have again moved out this month and as at 19th December stood at 0.91%, while 5 year swap rates have dropped again to stand at 1.24%. Figure 2: Inflation & Bank Rate forecasts Source: HM Treasury Forecast Panel & ONS 4.00% 3.6% 3.50% 3.3% 3.3% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.1% 3.00% 2.50% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.1% 2.00% 1.50% 1.92% 1.69% 1.00% 1.37% 1.13% 0.50% 0.75% 0.50% 0.00% 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Bank Rate (q4) CPI RPI Employment and earnings growth Despite concern about the strength of the economy, the labour market remains strong. Latest data show that the employment rate has risen to 75.7%, higher than for a year earlier (75.1%) and the joint- highest estimate since comparable estimates began in 1971. The unemployment rate, at 4.1%, is lower than the corresponding figure for last year (4.3%). Earnings growth continues to outpace inflation. Average weekly earnings in nominal terms increased by 3.3%, both excluding and including bonuses, compared with a year earlier. In real terms, they rose by 1.0% excluding bonuses, and by 1.1% including bonuses. UK Commercial & Residential Property Markets Review: December 2018 | 5 RESIDENTIAL PROPERTY National sales market Latest Land Registry data shows that national average house price growth slowed in the 12 months to October – to 2.7% in the UK and to 2.4% in England. The average house price in the UK now stands at £231,095 compared to £274,914 in England. Figure 3: Average annual house price growth: UK & England Source: Land Registry/ONS 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% UK England Figure 4: Average regional house price & annual price growth (September 2018) Source: Land Registry/ONS £500,000 4.90% 6.00% £450,000 4.40% 4.30% 5.00% 3.80% £400,000 4.00% £350,000 2.10% 2.10% 3.00% £300,000 1.50% 2.00% £250,000 1.00% £200,000 -0.10% £150,000 0.00% £100,000 -1.70% -1.00% £50,000 -2.00% £0 -3.00% Ave price 12 month growth At regional level, annual house price growth is now strongest in the North West at 4.9%. Two regions - London (-1.7%) and the North East (-0.1%) – saw prices fall over the 12 months to October. UK Commercial & Residential Property Markets Review: December 2018 | 6 Figure 5: Mortgage approvals Source: UK Finance 40000 35000 30000 25000 20000 15000 10000 5000 0 First time buyers Home movers Recent credit conditions’ surveys indicate that given weak house price expectations, lenders are becoming more cautious about extending new mortgage credit. Nonetheless, mortgage approvals for house purchase rose in October for the first time in four months according to UK Finance. The number of first time buyer mortgages rose by 8.2% year-on-year in October, and were 10.8% higher than in September. Home mover mortgages increased by 4% y-o-y and were 13.2% up on the previous month. A competitive market in 2018 means that re-mortgaging has reached its highest rate for a decade as home owners have had access to a wide range of deals. Data from UK Finance shows that there were 50,500 re-mortgages completed in October, a rise of 23.2% compared with the same month in 2017. By value, re-mortgaging was 22.7% higher year on year. London sales market Preliminary Land Registry data for the first 10 months of the year indicate a 10% reduction in sales compared to same period in 2017. In addition to stock shortages, affordability issues and a hint of seasonal slowdown, Brexit appears to be having more of a negative impact the closer we move towards B-day, in particular for EU nationals. Prices are now falling in 22 boroughs on an annual measure and in the year to October, the Land Registry reports that sold prices in Greater London fell by 1.7%, taking the average price to £473,609. The Rightmove Index reveals that asking prices in December were 1.1% lower than in December 2017. Interestingly, Inner London asking prices were 1.4% higher over the period whereas in Outer London they fell by 3.5%. UK Commercial & Residential Property Markets Review: December 2018 | 7 Figure 6: Annual price growth by London borough (October 2018) Source: Land Registry Greenwich Barking & Dagenham Bromley Havering Haringey Waltham Forest Bexley Redbridge Sutton Hammersmith & Fulham Ealing Wandsworth Lewisham Hounslow Enfield Merton Westminster Richmond upon Thames Newham Camden Islington Brent Kingston upon Thames Barnet Croydon Kensington & Chelsea Harrow Lambeth Hillingdon Southwark Hackney Tower Hamlets City of London -16.00% -14.00% -12.00% -10.00% -8.00% -6.00% -4.00% -2.00% 0.00% 2.00% 4.00% Source: Land Registry Conditions remain challenging in the prime central London market. Between September and November, achieved prices fell by 8% compared to the same period in 2017 and sales volume was 16.5% lower according to Lonres data. It remains a buyers’ market with the average discount on initial asking price between September and November standing at 11.2%. As at 17th December, 51% of available properties had experienced a price reduction and availability was 2.9% higher than at the same point in 2017. Nonetheless, there remain signs that conditions are beginning to turn as evidenced by the number of sealed bids on properties. New homes market 2018 has been a tough year for the London new homes market. Annualised data for the first nine months suggest that sales will be 8% lower than in 2017, around a third of which will have been sold to the built-to-rent sector. At the end of September, 66,000 units were under construction – 46% of which were unsold. UK Commercial & Residential Property Markets Review: December 2018 | 8 The better news is that developers are reining back on new construction. Pro-rata in the first nine months of 2018, there were 31% fewer planning applications than in 2017 and 15% fewer starts, although completions were only down by 2%. Getting an accurate handle on pricing is difficult as asking prices are liable to be quite different from achieved prices. Anecdotal evidence points to some contracts being flipped before completion at anything up to a 25% discount as speculators look to make a quick exit. Further evidence suggests that even where asking price, or near to it, is achieved developers have given away various incentives which would effectively reduce the headline price. Housebuilders have suffered on the stock market at various times this year. Most recently, shares in Berkeley Group, Persimmon, Taylor Wimpey and Barratt Developments fell between 3.5% and 5.1% following the delayed Brexit vote in parliament.
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