UK Commercial & Residential Property Markets Review: June 2018 | 1
UK Commercial & Residential Property Markets Review: June 2018 | 2
CONTENTS
Economic overview page 3
Residential property
- National sales page 5 - London sales page 8 - London new homes page 10 - National lettings page 11 - London lettings page 12
Commercial property
- London office market page 14 - Retail market page 14
Investment market
- Residential page 15 - Commercial page 16
Contact page 17
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ECONOMIC OVERVIEW
GDP Growth
The weakest household spending for three years and falling levels of business investment dragged the economy to its worst quarterly performance for five years according to official statistics, with revised estimates showing GDP rose by just 0.1% in Q1.
Nevertheless, there have been signs that the economy may have recovered somewhat in the second quarter. Growth in UK services hit a three-month high in May, although this was against the backdrop of strong cost pressures. The IHS Markit/CIPS UK Services Purchasing Managers’ Index climbed to 54 in May, up on 52.8 in April. Competitive pricing, greater business investment and new product launches led to improved sales volumes, but the increase in new work was one of the weakest seen since summer 2016.
Meanwhile, Brexit rumbles on with multiple outcome scenarios still a possibility. Theresa May has welcomed the passing of the Brexit bill through Parliament as "a crucial step" in delivering a "smooth and orderly Brexit". Peers accepted the amendment to the EU (Withdrawal) Bill sent to them from the House of Commons, meaning the bill now goes for Royal Assent to become law.
In spite of the less bullish atmosphere, the Treasury’s forecasting panel has maintained this month’s GDP growth forecasts for 2018 and 2019 at, respectively, 1.4% and 1.5%.
Figure 1: UK GDP growth outlook Source: HM Treasury Forecast Panel
3.0%
2.5%
2.0% 1.8% 1.8% 1.7% 1.7% 1.5% 1.5% 1.4%
1.0%
0.5%
0.0% 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Inflation & interest rates
Annual consumer price inflation was unchanged at 2.4% in May, although RPI inflation nudged downwards, from 3.4% to 3.3%. The Treasury forecasting panel’s 2018 inflation (CPI) forecast was held at 2.3% for the second month in succession, and the RPI forecast was held at 3.2%. Further reductions in both inflation measures are forecast for 2019.
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The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee held Bank Rate at 0.5% at its May meeting. It is still widely expected that there will be at least one further increase this year, especially if inflation remains above target and real wages’ growth stays in positive territory. UK 3 month Libor rates have nudged upwards this month and as at 15th June stood at 0.631%, while 5 year swap rates have dropped slightly to 1.323%.
Figure 2: Inflation (CPI) & Bank Rate forecasts Source: HM Treasury Forecast Panel & OBR
3.50% 3.0% 3.00% 2.3% 2.50% 2.1% 2.0% 2.1% 2.00% 2.1% 2.05% 1.50% 1.83% 1.50% 1.00% 1.25%
0.50% 0.75% 0.50% 0.00% 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Bank Rate (q4) CPI
Employment and earnings growth
The latest employment rate is 75.6%, higher than for a year earlier (74.8%) and the joint highest since comparable records began in 1971. The latest unemployment rate stands at 4.2%, down from 4.6% for a year earlier and the joint lowest since 1975.
Latest estimates show that average weekly earnings for employees in Great Britain in nominal terms increased by 2.8% excluding bonuses, and by 2.5% including bonuses, compared with a year earlier. Inflation continues to take its toll, however, and average weekly earnings for employees in Great Britain in real terms increased by just 0.4% excluding bonuses, and by 0.1% including bonuses, compared with a year earlier.
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RESIDENTIAL PROPERTY
National sales market
The perennial regional divide has taken a new twist this year in terms of availability and price growth. Data from Right move show that available stock levels in the north are considerably lower than in the south and buyer demand is arguably stronger.
Strong buyer activity in northern regions has reduced available stock levels by an average of 4.3% when compared to a year ago, restricting buyer choice and giving sellers upwards pricing power. In contrast the less active southern regions all have more available stock, up by an average of 17.5% compared to a year ago, and have become buyers’ markets with asking prices under downwards pressure.
Figure 3: Change in available stock: May 2018 v May 2017 Source: Rightmove
East of England
South East
London
South West
East Midlands
West Midlands
North East
North West
Yorks & Humber
-10.0% -5.0% 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% 30.0%
Latest Land Registry data reveal that UK annual house price growth slowed to 3.9% in April, down from 4.3% in March, taking the average price to £226,906. Prices in England slowed at a similar rate – from 4.0% down to 3.7%, with the average price now standing at £243,639. Growth is now strongest in the South West (6.1%) and weakest in London (1.0%).
According to Rightmove, national asking prices rose marginally in June (+0.4%) compared to May, and were 1.7% higher than in June 2017. Interestingly, the higher value properties recorded the biggest increases, averaging 1.1% on a monthly measure and 3.0% compared to June last year. However, asking prices in the current market are often just a starting point for negotiation. Data from the National Association of Estate Agents show that only one property in every eight sold in March succeeded in achieving its asking price - while no fewer than 86% sold for less, up from 74% in February.
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Figure 4: Average annual house price growth: UK & England Source: Land Registry/ONS
6%
5%
4%
3%
UK England
Figure 5: Average regional house price & annual price growth (Apr 2018) Source: Land Registry/ONS
£500,000 7.0% 6.1% 5.9% £450,000 6.0% £400,000 4.8% 4.5% £350,000 5.0% £300,000 3.5% 3.5% 4.0% £250,000 2.5% 2.4% £200,000 3.0% £150,000 2.0% 1.0% £100,000 1.0% £50,000 £0 0.0%
Ave price 12 month growth
The Bank of Mum & Dad (BoMaD) remains a major source of lending despite concern about the potential impact on parental finances going forward. A study conducted by Legal & General reveals that it will be the equivalent of a £5.7bn mortgage lender this year and is supporting more people than ever: 27% of all buyers will receive help from friends or family in 2018, up from 25% in 2017, purchasing almost 317,000 homes.
However, parental generosity is not without its limits and the latest BoMad survey suggests that parental households are feeling squeezed. Parents are providing smaller sums, with the average contribution declining from £21,600 in 2017 to £18,000 in 2018. This means that although BoMaD-
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supported transaction volumes are rising, overall forecast lending at £5.7bn is nonetheless a reduction from its height of £6.5bn last year.
Mortgage lending for house purchase accelerated in May to rise by 12.3% compared to the previous month although it was 3.8% down on the May 2017 figure. The average loan value for house purchase rose by 3.2% compared to the previous month to reach £203,800. Re-mortgaging rose by 11.8% over the month and was a hefty 18.3% higher than in May last year. Re-mortgaging as a proportion of total mortgage lending has risen from 56.7% last May to 69.7% in May this year, a reflection of households taking advantage of low interest rates and uncertainty about when they will start to go up again.
Figure 6: Mortgage lending by type (no. of loans, nsa) Source: UK Finance
60000
50000
40000
30000
20000
10000
0
House purchase Remortgage
Despite persistent affordability issues and stock shortages in parts of the country, residential sales’ volumes in the first five months of 2018 are only slightly down on the corresponding period last year: 2.9% lower in England and 3.5% down for the UK as a whole. According to HMRC, non-seasonally adjusted sales in May were 12.1% up on April and only 1% down on May 2017. The corresponding numbers for the UK are 12.4% and -0.5%.
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Figure 7: UK & England residential property transactions Source: HMRC
140,000
120,000
100,000
80,000
60,000
40,000
20,000
0
UK England
London sales market
Rightmove data show that London currently has 16.4% more available stock than at the same point last year which is helping to keep asking price growth subdued.
Land Registry reports that annual achieved price growth in London stood at 1.0% in April. Revised data also reveal that annual price growth was only negative for one month – March – and not as previously reported for two consecutive months. Even then prices only dropped by 0.5%. The crash predicted by some has still yet to arrive.
Nonetheless, annual prices are now falling in 17 boroughs, with the City (-20.9%) recording the steepest annual decline. However, prices are still rising in 19 boroughs with Camden (+7.5%) seeing the strongest growth.
According to Rightmove, new seller asking prices in London fell by 0.9% in June and by 1.0% compared to June last year. The first time buyer segment was the hardest hit with asking prices falling by 0.8% in June and by 2.5% over the year. In contrast, asking prices for the higher end of the market increased by 2.4% during the month and by 2.3% on a 12 month measure.
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Figure 8: Annual price growth by London borough (April 2018) Source: Land Registry
Camden Havering Barking and Dagenham Bexley Lambeth Redbridge Lewisham Greenwich Hackney Ealing Newham Bromley Waltham Forest Kingston upon Thames Hillingdon Enfield Barnet Islington Sutton Richmond upon Thames Croydon Brent Southwark Haringey Merton Hounslow Hammersmith and Fulham Kensington And Chelsea Wandsworth Harrow Tower Hamlets City of Westminster City of London
-25.00% -20.00% -15.00% -10.00% -5.00% 0.00% 5.00% 10.00%
Buyer appetite in the prime sector remains buoyant, in particular in the core central locations. Applicant registrations and viewings are both notably higher in the first six months of 2018 compared the corresponding period last year. Available stock levels are also higher.
However, actual sales are down on last year. Lonres reports that in the period March to May, transaction numbers were 11.5% lower than in the same period last year. Purchasers appear keen to buy but remain price sensitive in what is still a buyers’ market. According to Lonres, the average discount on properties sold between March and May this year was 9.3%, while 48.4% of properties currently available for sale have had a price reduction. 62% of properties have been on the market for more than three months.
Capital values remain under downwards pressure. Properties sold between March and May this year experienced a 6.4% drop in achieved price compared to the same period in 2017 according to Lonres data. Stamp duty, Brexit anxiety and interest rate uncertainty continue to hamper the market. However, overseas buyer attitude anecdotally remains largely positive.
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London new homes market
Despite concern about possible oversupply at the top end of the market, the wider London market continues to suffer from a shortage of new housing development. Data from the NHBC (National House Building Council) reveal that new registrations between February and April this year were 49% lower than in the same period last year.
The development pipeline looks healthy enough. In the first six months of this year, Molior recorded planning consent for 393,953 private units in 2,504 schemes. Planning applications had been lodged for a further 462,115 private units in 3,378 schemes. However, the softer sales market this year has persuaded some developers to postpone the construction and/or marketing of schemes which will mean that actual delivery of some of these units will be delayed.
Figure 9: London residential development planning: Jan-Jun 2018 Source: Molior
Schemes: 3,378 Applications; 2,504 consents 700,000 577,753 600,000 492,261 500,000 462,115 393,953 400,000
300,000
200,000
100,000
0 Total units Private units
Applications lodged Planning consent given
Grosvenor Britain & Ireland is making its first foray into the build-to-rent (BTR) sector. Its first scheme, a £500m 1,500-unit development on the site of the former Peek Frean biscuit factory and Lewisham Southwark College in Bermondsey, is due to go before Southwark Council’s planning committee later this year.
BYM Capital has raised £59.8m from specialist residential lender Pluto Finance to develop one of London’s largest permitted development schemes. BYM plans to convert the 140,248 sq ft New Horizons Court campus in Brentford, Middlesex, into 268 studios and one- and two-bedroom flats. The site comprises four buildings, including Sky’s former HQ. The finance, arranged by BBS Capital, is a 36-month loan facility at a 65% loan to gross development value. Conversion of the properties is expected to be completed in early 2019.
The Ministry of Justice has agreed a deal to sell Holloway Prison in Islington, N7, to residential developer London Square and housing association A2Dominion. The 10-acre site, on Parkhurst Road, could provide more than 1,000 new homes, of which 50% would have to be “genuinely affordable”. It is estimated the built out scheme could have a gross development value of £500m. The sale of the
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Victorian prison is the first since former justice secretary Michael Gove announced in 2015 that he planned to close inner-city prisons and sell the sites for housing, reinvesting profits to help build nine new jails. Potential future prison sales in London which could release land for housing include Brixton, SW2, Pentonville, N7 and Wormwood Scrubs, W12.
London’s property development outlook is still fairly subdued, although developers are showing a “renewed sense of optimism” according to a recent survey of 235 firms (both residential and commercial) from M3 Consulting. 42% of survey respondents now anticipate lower levels of development activity in the capital over the next five years – which is a marked improvement on the 57% recorded last autumn. 33% of developers are predicting an increase in activity over the next five years, compared to just 19% last autumn.
82% of developers still think that governments at local and central level are “not doing enough to enable development”. 61% of respondents placed the need for local and central governments to improve town planning policies in their top two wish list. 82% and 65% of the respondents expect Crossrail 2 and government investment, respectively, to have a positive impact on London development activities.
The findings on Brexit paint a mixed picture. Almost three quarters of respondents (72.5%) believe Brexit will have a negative or significantly negative impact on development in the capital, yet this figure has dropped from 80% in autumn 2017. Moreover, a majority (53%) of respondents believe Brexit will have either no impact on, or lead to more inward investment from overseas.
Construction skills shortage remains a prevalent concern for the industry, with 76% of respondents believing that it will have a negative or significantly negative impact on London development activity over the next five years.
National lettings market
The latest Homelet index reports that average rents across the UK rose by 2.0% in May when compared to the same month a year previously, taking the average monthly rent to £919. When London is excluded, the average UK rental value was £763, up 1.3% on last year.
Rents rose in 11 out of the 12 regions covered in the index. Within England, the strongest annual growth outside London was recorded in the West Midlands (3.0%) and the slowest was in the South West and the East, both registering a minimal uplift of just 0.2%.
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Figure 10: Average monthly asking rents & annual growth by region (May 2018) Source: Homelet
£1,800 6.0% 5.6% £1,600 5.0% £1,400 £1,200 4.0% £1,000 3.0% 3.0% £800 2.3% 2.1% £600 1.9% 2.0% £400 1.0% 1.0% £200 0.5% 0.2% 0.2% £0 0.0% London West Yorks & North North South East South East of Midlands Humber East West East Midlands West England
Ave rent 12 month growth (%)
Demand for rental properties increased by 9% in April according to ARLA, with letting agents registering 72 new tenants per member branch, up from 66 in March. Demand in England was highest in the East Midlands where agents registered 98 prospective tenants per branch.
The number of rental properties managed by letting agents remained at 179 per branch on average, but down on the April 2017 figure of 183. Supply was highest in the East Midlands where agents managed an average of 247 properties per branch.
26% of tenants experienced a rent increase in April compared to 23% in March. This is the highest proportion of rent increases since September 2017 when 27% of landlords raised rents and it continues the upwards trend observed every month since October 2017. Tenants in the East Midlands were worst affected as 56% saw their rents go up, compared to North east where just 11% of tenants experienced a rent increase.
London lettings market
Homelet reports that average monthly rents for new tenancies in London increased by 5.6% in May 2018 compared to the same month of 2017, taking the average rent in the capital to £1,586 per month.
At borough level, annual rental growth is strongest in Camden and the City, both at 18.0%, and weakest in Brent, Kingston, Merton and Sutton, all at 1.5%. No borough recorded a drop in rents.
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Figure 11: London borough monthly asking rents for 2-bed flats (as at 26 June 2018) Source: Zoopla
Westminster £4,349 Kensington & Chelsea £3,904 Hammersmith & Fulham £2,981 Camden £2,905 Islington £2,389 Wandsworth £2,278 Tower Hamlets £2,272 Southwark £2,263 Hackney £2,152 Lambeth £2,101 Richmond upon Thames £1,887 Merton £1,875 Ealing £1,746 Hounslow £1,703 Brent £1,677 Newham £1,641 Haringey £1,621 Barnet £1,600 Greenwich £1,593 Lewisham £1,526 Kingston upon Thames £1,514 Harrow £1,417 Enfield £1,387 Waltham Forest £1,365 Bromley £1,355 Hillingdon £1,350 Redbridge £1,309 Croydon £1,261 Barking & Dagenham £1,227 Sutton £1,201 Bexley £1,097 £0 £500 £1,000 £1,500 £2,000 £2,500 £3,000 £3,500 £4,000 £4,500 £5,000
Activity in the prime lettings market continues to pick up with strong increases in new applicant registrations and viewings. Despite this, and a notable increase in available stock in the year to June, transaction numbers have not increased at a commensurate rate. Tenants, in similar vein to their counterparts in the sales market, remain price sensitive and slective in terms of their accommodation requirements. For the most expensive properties, presentation is key in securing a letting as tenants are often prepared to compromise on location to find a property within their budget range.
Rental values generally remain under downwards pressure, although this is easing thanks to stock shortgages in some locations. In a competitve market, landlords in the prime areas need to price appropriately to attract and retain tenants – a familiar theme for some time now.
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COMMERCIAL PROPERTY
London office market
Take-up in central London in May was significantly higher than in the previous month, thanks largely to two major transactions: the Chinese government’s purchase of Royal Mint Court in EC3 for its new embassy, which includes 520,000 sq ft of office space, and WeWork’s 125,000 sq ft let at Aviation House, WC2. Take-up in the City more than doubled thanks to the Chinese embassy deal. In contrast, take-up in the West End fell by nearly 40%. Take-up also rose in Docklands and Midtown but fell in Southbank.
At the end of May two major deals were agreed in principal which will help to boost June take-up numbers. Facebook agreed a deal to occupy around 140,000 sq ft for at least two years at the 190,000 sq ft 125 Shaftesbury Avenue, WC2. Specialist bank Investec agreed to relocate its asset management business to 55 Gresham Street, a newly redeveloped 121,000 sq ft office building.
Central London availability was broadly stable at just under 6.5%, the majority of which (72%) was in second-hand space. Availability in the City stood at 7.9% compared to 5.1% in the West End and 9.1% in Docklands. Pre-lets remain healthy: coming into May, the 2018 pipeline was 62% pre-let in the City and 53% pre-let in the West End.
Headline prime rents in the City stand at £70/sq ft per annum, compared to £110/sq ft per annum in the West End. Typical rent-free periods on a 10 year lease are around 24 months in both the West End and the City.
Retail market
The ONS reports that the volume of retail sales in May was 1.3% higher than in April, with feedback from retailers suggested that a sustained period of good weather and the Royal Wedding celebrations encouraged spending in food and household goods stores. Year-on-year growth was stronger at 3.9%.
Despite this, footfall was still down. According to the latest monthly BRC-Springboard Footfall and Vacancies Monitor, footfall fell in May by 0.4% on the previous year although this was a marked improvement over March and April, which recorded declines of 6% and 3.3% respectively. In contrast, online spending for food, department and clothing stores continued to increase, achieving new record proportions of online retailing in May at 5.8%, 17.4% and 17.6% respectively.
Shop price deflation deepened in May as retailers were forced to compete in a challenging market environment, according to the latest monthly BRC-Nielsen Shop Price Index. Overall shop prices fell by 1.1% in May compared to the same month last year, marking the 61st month of deflation and the deepest since January 2017. Prices of non-food items in May were 2.5% lower year-on-year, their deepest deflation in that category since August 2016. However food inflation increased by 1.2%, up from the 1% recorded in April as bad weather and oil prices had an impact on global agricultural markets.
The difficulties facing retailers are epitomised in the department store sector where the number of large department stores in England has fallen by 25% in less than a decade to just 180, according to
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research from to peer-to-peer secured lending platform Lendy. The total number of shops in England has also fallen, by 1% to 403,000, over the same period. Lendy said department stores have been affected by the rise of online shopping, while heavy debt burdens hamper their own investment in ecommerce and in-store refurbishment. In addition, department store businesses have often built up debt through the high number of mergers and acquisitions the sector has been subject to in the last 15 years.
In contrast, Unibail-Rodamco-Westfield has finally received the final greenlight for its new £1.4 billion Croydon development with the permission to buy the remaining land on the site. Croydon Council has approved the use of compulsory purchase order powers for the shopping centre group to purchase the remaining land and interests it needs to complete the major redevelopment project. It will provide 500,000sq ft of new retail space, including over 300 shops, and create 7000 jobs.
Meanwhile, Amazon has just announced another recruitment drive with a targeted creation of 2,500 new permanent jobs, bringing its total UK workforce to a projected 27,500 by the end of the year.
INVESTMENT MARKET
Residential
There were 5,000 new buy-to-let (BTL) house purchase mortgages completed in April, 5.7% fewer than in the same month in 2017 and 9.1% down on March this year. Although the data suggests that appetite for the sector is waning, it ignores cash purchases and corporate acquisitions. However, anecdotal evidence from surveys points to new demand being stifled by the phasing out of tax relief on finance costs. In April, ARLA reported that letting agents saw the highest number of landlords selling their properties since records began in 2015.
Figure 12: Buy-to-let mortgage lending Source: UK Finance
18,000 16,000 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0
No. loans for house purchase No. loans for remortgage
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In contrast, buy-to-let remortgaging in April was 32.4% up on April 2017 and 13.5% up on March 2018. This reflects landlords continuing to take advantage of low interest rates and the increase in BTL mortgage products against a background of uncertainty over the timing of the Bank of England’s next move on Base Rate.
Meanwhile, the build-to-rent (BTR) sector continues to expand and has been given a potential boost by its formal recognition in the Government’s recently revised National Planning Policy Framework (NPPF). The government has forecast that 10,000 new homes per annum could be provided through BTR. With nearly 120,000 BTR units already completed, under construction or in planning across the UK, BTR has the potential to accelerate housebuilding, delivering high quality and well managed homes in sustainable communities.
The sector is increasingly accommodating families, with the 35-44 age range now representing 29% of the market and consequently a growing proportion of units are houses, rather than apartments. Simultaneously, the sector is expanding geographically, with 62% of BTR units now under construction located in the regions.
Atlanta-based Cortland Partners, which already owns a 485-unit scheme in Watford as well as around 45,000 apartments across 18 US cities, is planning to build up its UK portfolio to around 10,000 apartments. It currently has sites totalling around 2,000 units under offer, and is looking for more sites and a development partner with a focus on London and the surrounding areas.
Countryside Properties and Sigma Capital Group have extended their relationship with an agreement to deliver a further 5,000 BTR homes over the next three years. In December 2014, the duo signed an agreement for 927 homes which was extended to include a further 900 homes in February 2016.
KCR Residential REIT has joined forces with AIM-listed specialist housebuilder Inland Homes to target UK private rented sector opportunities. KCR says it has established a strategic relationship with Inland Homes to support the delivery of low-to-mid-priced housing for rent. As part of the agreement, the partners have identified an initial pipeline valued in excess of £100m from within Inland’s current portfolio, comprising investment properties, units under construction and land with planning consent.
British Land, the UK’s second largest REIT, is reportedly in talks to buy Thames Valley Housing’s commercial arm Fizzy Living, although negotiations are at an early stage and there is no deal currently in place.
Commercial
There have been a number of high profile London deals recently. The Burlington Arcade in Piccadilly was acquired by Motcomb Estates for £300m at a reported yield of 3.20%. In the office sector, a subsidiary of Ho Bee Land, a Singaporean-listed company purchased Ropemaker Place, a 21-story building near Moorgate station, for £650m.
Singapore-based Elite Partners Capital is reportedly on the verge of buying a £280m portfolio of 98 regional offices let to the Department for Work and Pensions (DWP) on new 10-year leases running from 1 April 2018 at newly-agreed market rents subject to CPI-linked rent reviews. The price refl ects a net initial yield of 7.81% and a capital value of £109/sq ft.
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However, the largest transaction was the purchase of the UBS headquarters building at 5 Broadgate for £1bn by Hong Kong investor CK Asset Holdings at areported yield of 3.9%. South East Asian investors currently dominate the market for trophy buildings and appear not to be overly concerned about Brexit.
Elsewhere, M&G Investments has acquired Anglo American’s HQ in Farringdont for £265m. M&G will buy the property and subsequently carry out a major redevelopment. When construction completes in 2020, a new 25-year lease to Anglo American will commence.
Retail sector capital values fell by 0.3% in May, marking five months of flat or falling capital growth for the sector. Central London office capital values fell by 0.2%, while offices in the Rest of UK increased by 0.6%.
Prime City office yields remain at 4.0% compared to the West End prime office yield of 3.25%. Retail yields in Bond Street stand at 2.0% and in Oxford Street at 2.25%. The best regional shopping centre yields are around 4.25%.
CONTACT
Chestertons is one of London’s largest estate agencies and has a network of over 30 offices offering sales and lettings services, in addition to a strong international presence including Caribbean, Middle East, Monaco, France, Spain, Portugal, Switzerland and Australia. For further information please contact one of the following:
Nicholas Barnes John Woolley Head of Research Head of Valuation T: +44 (0) 20 3040 8406 T: +44 (0) 20 3040 8513 E: [email protected] E: [email protected]
The contents of this report are intended for the purpose of general information and should not be relied upon as the basis for decision taking on the part of the reader. Although every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information contained within this report at the time of writing, no liability is accepted by Chesterton Global for any loss or damage resulting from its use. Reproduction of this report in whole or in part is not permitted without the prior written approval of Chesterton Global. June 2018.