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UK Commercial & Residential Property Markets UK Commercial & Residential Property Markets Review: January 2019 | 1 UK Commercial & Residential Property Markets Review: January 2019 | 2 CONTENTS Economic overview page 3 Residential property - National sales page 5 - London sales page 7 - New homes page 9 - National lettings page 10 - London lettings page 12 Commercial property - London office market page 13 - Retail market page 13 Investment market - Residential page 15 - Commercial page 16 Contact page 16 UK Commercial & Residential Property Markets Review: January 2019 | 3 ECONOMIC OVERVIEW GDP Growth GDP growth slowed to 0.3% in the final quarter of 2018, its lowest rate in six months. Manufacturers suffered their longest period of monthly falls in output since the financial crisis as they were hit by weaker overseas demand, with car production and the pharmaceutical industry both performing poorly. In addition to the Brexit headwinds, which are dampening business investment and consumer confidence, there are signs that the global economy is stuttering from the ongoing trade spat between the US and China, and a slowdown in a number of developed economies – notably China, Japan and Germany . Despite this backcloth, the Treasury’s panel of independent forecasters estimated outturn GDP growth rate for 2018 was again held at 1.3% in January as was the 2019 forecast rate of 1.5%. With less than three months to go before the UK’s scheduled exit from the EU, it is exasperating that we still don’t know what is going to happen. There are various possible outcomes, with differing degrees of likelihood, ranging from a modified deal acceptable to the UK and Brussels to “No Deal.” The domestic political rancour could also result in a General Election and a change of Government which could be very damaging for the property industry. It is also not beyond the realms of possibility that we will remain in the EU, especially if a new government is elected and with or without a second referendum. Figure 1: UK GDP growth outlook Source: HM Treasury Forecast Panel 3.0% 2.5% 2.0% 1.8% 1.7% 1.6% 1.5% 1.5% 1.3% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Inflation & interest rates Annual inflation dropped again in December to its lowest rate in nearly two years – CPI was down to 2.1% and RPI down to 2.7%. The Treasury’s forecast panel projects that CPI inflation will UK Commercial & Residential Property Markets Review: January 2019 | 4 fall to 1.9% in 2019. It also forecasts a fall in RPI inflation, although its 2.9% projection is already above the actual rate and is likely to be lowered next month. The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee did not meet in January and Bank Rate therefore remains at 0.75%. Concerns about the extent of Brexit disruption and a slowdown in the global economy mean that Bank Rate may well remain unchanged for the next few months at least. UK 3 month Libor rates have nudged upwards this month and as at 25th January stood at 0.93%. 5 year swap rates have remained broadly stable and stood at 1.24% at the same date. Figure 2: Inflation & Bank Rate forecasts Source: HM Treasury Forecast Panel & ONS 3.50% 3.3% 3.3% 3.1% 2.9% 3.00% 2.7% 2.50% 2.1% 2.1% 1.9% 2.0% 2.0% 2.00% 1.92% 1.50% 1.69% 1.00% 1.37% 1.10% 0.50% 0.75% 0.00% 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Bank Rate (q4) CPI RPI Employment and earnings growth Employment remains buoyant while unemployment has stabilised, although if the pace of retail job losses continues these statistics are likely to worsen as the year progresses. The latest figures from the ONS show the employment rate at 75.8%, higher than for a year earlier (75.3%) and the highest since comparable estimates began in 1971. The unemployment rate was estimated at 4.0% and has not been lower since the period December 1974 to February 1975. Latest estimates show that average weekly earnings for employees in Great Britain in nominal terms increased by 3.3% excluding bonuses, and by 3.4% including bonuses, compared with a year earlier. In real terms earnings rose by 1.1% excluding bonuses, and by 1.2% including bonuses, compared with a year earlier. UK Commercial & Residential Property Markets Review: January 2019 | 5 RESIDENTIAL PROPERTY National sales market Latest HMRC data reveal that residential transactions fell sharply in December – by 11.5% in the UK and by 10.0% in England, although the compared to December 2017 the decline was far less steep at 2.9% and 1.9% respectively. Nonetheless, sales over the year as a whole held up remarkably well, passing the one million mark in both the UK and England and were only around 2% down on the 2017 totals. Figure 3: Monthly residential property transactions (non-seasonally adjusted) Source: HMRC 140,000 120,000 100,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 0 UK England Latest Land Registry data shows that national average house price growth in the 12 months to November 2018 reached 2.8% in the UK and 2.6% in England, representing a slight acceleration compared to October. The average house price in the UK now stands at £230,630 compared to £247,430 in England. Rightmove reports that the price of property coming to market in January rose by 0.4%, the lowest monthly rise at this time of year since January 2012. The average asking price was also 0.4% down on the January 2018 figure, with the northern part of the country faring better in terms of both pricing power and willingness to move than the rest of the country. The largest annual increase was recorded by second steppers (1.6%), triggered by potential home- mover visits to the Rightmove website which reached record highs for the first two weeks of a new year, and were up by 5% on the same period a year ago. In contrast, the prime market suffered a 0.4% decline over a 12 month period, although a 0.6% monthly increase was recorded in January. UK Commercial & Residential Property Markets Review: January 2019 | 6 Figure 4: Average annual house price growth: UK & England Source: Land Registry/ONS 5% 4% 3% 2% UK England At regional level, annual house price growth is strongest in the Midlands: West Midlands at 4.6% and East Midlands at 4.4%. Only London remains in negative growth territory and this is moderate at - 0.7%. Figure 5: Average regional house price & annual price growth (Nov 2018) Source: Land Registry 4.6% £500,000 4.4% 4.3% 5.0% £450,000 4.0% 4.0% £400,000 3.1% £350,000 2.6% 3.0% £300,000 2.0% £250,000 2.0% 1.1% £200,000 £150,000 1.0% £100,000 -0.7% 0.0% £50,000 £0 -1.0% Ave price 12 month growth UK Commercial & Residential Property Markets Review: January 2019 | 7 Figure 6: Mortgage approvals Source: UK Finance 45000 40000 35000 30000 25000 20000 15000 10000 5000 0 First time buyers Home movers Mortgage approvals for house purchase rose in November 2018 as buyers took advantage of continued low interest rate deals. First time buyer loans rose by 8.4% month-on-month and were 5.8% higher than in November 2017. Loans to home movers rose by 6.8% over the month and by 1.1% year- on-year. Re-mortgaging was slightly up year-on-year (+1.3%) but was a hefty 23% down on the previous month – although activity in October was the highest recorded in a decade as a large number of fixed-rate deals came to an end. Figure 7: Key mortgage lending indicators Source: UK Finance First Time Buyer Nov-17 Nov-18 Loan-to-Value 84.7% 85.0% Loan Size £138,000 £142,500 Loan to Income Multiple 3.64 3.65 Repayment as % of Household Income 17.3% 17.4% Home Mover Nov-17 Nov-18 Loan-to-Value 72.5% 72.9% Loan Size £175,500 £180,000 Loan to Income Multiple 3.40 3.41 Repayment as % of Household Income 17.5% 17.7% London sales market Preliminary Land Registry data for the first 11 months of 2018 indicate a 17.9% reduction in sales compared to same period in 2017, although for resale transactions the drop was 15.7%. Affordability, stock shortages (Rightmove also reported that there was a 19% fall in properties coming to market in December compared to December 2017) and Brexit remain the principal drag factors on demand. UK Commercial & Residential Property Markets Review: January 2019 | 8 Figure 8: Residential sales in London: Jan-Nov each year Source: Land Registry 120000 109086 103184 100000 94901 85387 80000 70082 60000 40000 20000 0 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Figure 9: Annual price growth by London borough (November 2018) Source: Land Registry Redbridge Southwark Bexley Hounslow Barking and Dagenham Haringey Islington Barnet Hillingdon Lewisham Ealing Havering Croydon Enfield Richmond upon Thames Greenwich Hackney Waltham Forest Sutton Lambeth Newham Bromley Merton Kingston upon Thames Wandsworth Hammersmith and Fulham City of Westminster Harrow Tower Hamlets Kensington And Chelsea Camden Brent City of London -8.0% -6.0% -4.0% -2.0% 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% UK Commercial & Residential Property Markets Review: January 2019 | 9 Prices are now falling in 23 boroughs on an annual measure and in the year to November Land Registry data show that sold prices in Greater London fell by 0.7%, compared to a 12 month fall of 1.7% in October, taking the average price to £472,901.
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