2.2. Selective Perfumes Segment: Highly Competitive

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2.2. Selective Perfumes Segment: Highly Competitive INDEPENDENT RESEARCH Interparfums 8th June 2017 The scent of success Luxury & Consumer Goods Fair Value EUR41 (price EUR37.00) BUY Coverage initiated Bloomberg ITP FP We initiate coverage of Interparfums, an independent company Reuters IPAR.PA involved on the Perfumes segment sold in selective retail, with a BUY 12-month High / Low (EUR) 37.4 / 20.2 rating and a fair value of EUR41. Market capitalisation (EURm) 1,314 Enterprise Value (BG estimates EURm) 1,138 Avg. 6m daily volume ('000 shares) 13.30 Interparfums is a leading player in the global market for high-end Free Float 27.0% perfumes that are distributed selectively. The group is still controlled by its 3y EPS CAGR 13.0% Gearing (12/16) NM founders, Philippe Benacin and Jean Madar (73%). It operates in this Dividend yields (12/17e) 1.62% segment thanks to licencing agreements with luxury-goods groups (80% of revenues), but also via its own brands. YE December 12/16 12/17e 12/18e 12/19e Revenue (EURm) 365.60 416.00 458.00 500.00 EBIT(EURm) 49.90 57.00 63.00 69.00 Interparfums’ business model is very light. Production and packaging are Basic EPS (EUR) 0.90 1.04 1.15 1.30 Diluted EPS (EUR) 0.90 1.04 1.15 1.30 subcontracted. Moreover, licence agreements are valid for at least 10 years. EV/Sales 3.16x 2.74x 2.44x 2.19x The main licence is Montblanc (30% of sales), followed by Jimmy Choo EV/EBITDA 18.1x 15.8x 14.0x 12.6x EV/EBIT 23.1x 20.0x 17.7x 15.8x (22%). Lanvin (one of Interparfums’ own brands) accounts for 15% of P/E 41.2x 35.5x 32.0x 28.6x group revenues. ROCE 12.7 13.7 14.8 16.0 Over the past five years, pro-forma sales growth has averaged 16% per 36.1 annum, reflecting the group’s dynamic business model. However, management. The group attaches considerably importance to sales growth, 31.1 which we expect to average +11% per annum in 2016-19, nevertheless 26.1 with the operating margin almost stable at 13.5-14%, as management’s priority does not appear to be regular growth of operating profit. 21.1 16.1 With net cash holdings of EUR160m at end 2016, Interparfums says it is 04/12/15 04/03/16 04/06/16 04/09/16 04/12/16 04/03/17 04/06/17 INTERPARFUMS SXX EUROPE 600 ready to participate in a reshuffle of the global perfumes business, which looks likely since Coty acquired P&G’s cosmetics activities in 2016 and, more recently, signed a licence agreement with Burberry. To value the group, we have relied on the DCF method, as we do not consider the other perfume groups true comparables. Our DCF model suggests a Fair Value de EUR41 and we initiate coverage with a BUY rating. Analyst: Sector Analyst Team: Loïc Morvan Nikolaas Faes 33(0) 1 70 36 57 24 Antoine Parison [email protected] Virginie Roumage Cedric Rossi r r Interparfums Simplified Profit & Loss Account (EURm) 2014 2015 2016 2017e 2018e 2019e Revenues 297 327 366 416 458 500 Change (%) -15.2% 10.2% 11.7% 13.8% 10.1% 9.2% Adjusted EBITDA 41.8 58.1 63.9 72.0 80.0 87.0 EBIT 31.3 45.8 49.9 57.0 63.0 69.0 Change (%) -40.2% 46.3% 9.0% 14.2% 10.5% 9.5% Financial results 2.8 (0.70) 0.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 Pre-Tax profits 34.1 45.1 49.9 58.0 64.0 70.0 Tax (11.1) (16.0) (18.0) (21.0) (23.0) (24.0) Profits from associates 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 Minority interests 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 Net profit 23.0 29.1 31.9 37.0 41.0 46.0 Restated net profit 23.0 29.1 31.9 37.0 41.0 46.0 Change (%) -34.1% 26.5% 9.6% 16.0% 10.8% 12.2% Cash Flow Statement (EURm) Operating cash flows 33.0 43.0 43.0 51.0 55.0 60.0 Change in working capital 17.0 9.8 (3.0) 14.7 10.9 11.6 Capex, net 2.0 3.0 2.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 Financial investments, net 24.0 108 3.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Dividends 12.0 13.2 16.0 17.6 19.4 21.3 Other (24.0) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Net debt (225) (135) (160) (175) (197) (221) Free Cash flow 14.0 30.2 44.0 33.3 41.1 45.4 Balance Sheet (EURm) Tangible fixed assets 5.2 5.9 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 Intangibles assets 69.4 173 163 163 163 163 Cash & equivalents 225 226 230 246 268 292 current assets 129 150 159 169 180 192 Other assets 12.8 13.4 15.0 14.8 14.8 14.8 Company description Total assets 441 568 574 600 632 668 Interparfums Group, indirectly L & ST Debt 0.0 90.5 70.0 70.3 70.3 70.3 controled by Philippe Benacin and Others liabilities 72.5 89.8 99.7 94.9 94.9 94.9 Shareholders' funds 369 388 404 435 467 503 Jean Madar (73%) operates on the Total Liabilities 441 568 574 600 632 668 prestige Perfumes market sold on the Capital employed 151 265 251 266 277 288 selective retail (perfumeries, Ratios Department stores, or specialized Operating margin 10.54 13.99 13.65 13.70 13.76 13.80 stores as Sephora or Marionnaud), Tax rate 32.55 35.48 36.07 36.21 35.94 34.29 Net margin 7.74 8.89 8.73 8.89 8.95 9.20 through own brands as Rochas and ROE (after tax) NM NM NM NM NM NM lanvin (20%of sales) and exclusive and ROCE (after tax) 13.96 11.15 12.71 13.69 14.83 15.96 long term licence contracts as for Gearing NM NM NM NM NM NM Montblanc (30% of sales), Jimmy Pay out ratio 57.29 55.33 61.21 57.57 56.28 57.88 Choo (22% of sales) and very recently Number of shares, diluted 29.20 32.20 35.50 35.50 35.50 35.50 Coach. Moreover, its activity is mainly Data per Share (EUR) EPS 0.65 0.81 0.90 1.04 1.15 1.30 achieved in US (27% of sales), Restated EPS 0.65 0.81 0.90 1.04 1.15 1.30 Western Europe (32%) and Asia (15% % change -35.1% 25.9% 10.5% 16.0% 10.8% 12.2% of sales. EPS bef. GDW 0.65 0.81 0.90 1.04 1.15 1.30 BVPS NM NM NM NM NM NM Operating cash flows 1.13 1.34 1.21 1.44 1.55 1.69 FCF NM NM NM NM NM NM Net dividend 0.37 0.45 0.55 0.60 0.65 0.75 Source: Company Data; Bryan, Garnier & Co ests. 2 Interparfums Table of contents 1. Investment Case ...........................................................................................................................................4 2. A competitive perfumes market ................................................................................................................5 2.1. Global cosmetics market is growing steadily .................................................................. 5 2.2. Selective perfumes segment: highly competitive ............................................................ 5 2.3. Growth is driven by the very high-end segment ............................................................ 6 2.4. Interparfums is still a small player in this market ........................................................... 7 3. Interparfums’ business model ...................................................................................................................8 3.1. A light, efficient organisation… ........................................................................................ 8 3.2. …allows dynamic sales ........................................................................................................8 3.3. A strong presence in Europe and the US ..................................................................... 10 4. Business model of perfume licences ..................................................................................................... 12 4.1. Differences between eyewear and perfumes ................................................................ 12 4.2. Licences offer good visibility .......................................................................................... 13 4.3. A reshuffle of the portfolio of brands ........................................................................... 14 4.4. The main brands ............................................................................................................... 15 4.4.1. Montblanc ........................................................................................................................... 15 4.4.2. Jimmy Choo ........................................................................................................................ 16 4.5. Interparfums’ own brands ............................................................................................... 17 4.5.1. Lanvin .................................................................................................................................. 17 4.5.2. Rochas ................................................................................................................................. 17 4.6. Coach’s potential ............................................................................................................... 18 5. Encouraging prospects ............................................................................................................................ 21 5.1. Momentum remains very strong .................................................................................... 21 5.2. 11% sales CAGR in 2016-19e ......................................................................................... 23 5.3. Higher profitability is not an objective .......................................................................... 25 5.4. A very healthy financial situation ................................................................................... 27 5.4.1. Net cash of EUR160m ..................................................................................................... 28 5.4.2. Ambitious pay-out ............................................................................................................. 28 6. Valuation .................................................................................................................................................... 30 6.1. A very good stock-market performance… ................................................................... 30 6.2. … but still some
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