Politics and Culture of the Global Future Fall
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FROM LONGITUDE to ALTITUDE: INDUCEMENT PRIZE CONTESTS AS INSTRUMENTS of PUBLIC POLICY in SCIENCE and TECHNOLOGY Clayton Stallbau
FROM LONGITUDE TO ALTITUDE: INDUCEMENT PRIZE CONTESTS AS INSTRUMENTS OF PUBLIC POLICY IN SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY Clayton Stallbaumer* I. INTRODUCTION On a foggy October night in 1707, a fleet of Royal Navy warships ran aground on the Isles of Scilly, some twenty miles southwest of England.1 Believing themselves to be safely west of any navigational hazards, two thousand sailors discovered too late that they had fatally misjudged their position.2 Although the search for an accurate method to determine longitude had bedeviled Europe for several centuries, the “sudden loss of so many lives, so many ships, and so much honor all at once” elevated the discovery of a solution to a top national priority in England.3 In 1714, Parliament issued the Longitude Act,4 promising as much as £20,0005 for a “Practicable and Useful” method of determining longitude at sea; fifty-nine years later, clockmaker John Harrison claimed the prize.6 Nearly three centuries after the fleet’s tragic demise, another accident, also fatal but far removed from longitude’s terrestrial reach, struck a nation deeply. Just four days after its crew observed a moment’s silence in memory of the Challenger astronauts, the space shuttle Columbia disintegrated upon reentry, killing all on board.7 Although * J.D., University of Illinois College of Law, 2006; M.B.A., University of Illinois College of Business, 2006; B.A., Economics, B.A., History, Lake Forest College, 2001. 1. DAVA SOBEL, LONGITUDE: THE TRUE STORY OF A LONE GENIUS WHO SOLVED THE GREATEST SCIENTIFIC PROBLEM OF HIS TIME 12 (1995). -
Artificial Intelligence: What Is It, Can It Be Leveraged, and What Are the Ramifications?
ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE: WHAT IS IT, CAN IT BE LEVERAGED, AND WHAT ARE THE RAMIFICATIONS? Major James R. Barker JCSP 45 PCEMI 45 Service Paper Étude militaire Disclaimer Avertissement Opinions expressed remain those of the author and do Les opinons exprimées n’engagent que leurs auteurs et not represent Department of National Defence or ne reflètent aucunement des politiques du Ministère de Canadian Forces policy. This paper may not be used la Défense nationale ou des Forces canadiennes. Ce without written permission. papier ne peut être reproduit sans autorisation écrite © Her Majesty the Queen in Right of Canada, as represented by the © Sa Majesté la Reine du Chef du Canada, représentée par le Minister of National Defence, 2019. ministre de la Défense nationale, 2019. CANADIAN FORCES COLLEGE/COLLÈGE DES FORCES CANADIENNES JCSP 45 OCTOBER 15 2018 DS545 COMPONENT CAPABILITIES ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE: WHAT IS IT, CAN IT BE LEVERAGED, AND WHAT ARE THE RAMIFICATIONS? By Major James R. Barker “This paper was written by a candidate « La présente étude a été rédigée par un attending the Canadian Force College in stagiaire du Collège des Forces fulfillment of one of the requirements of the canadiennes pour satisfaire à l’une des exigences du cours. L’étude est un Course of Studies. The paper is a scholastic document qui se rapporte au cours et document, and thus contains facts and Contient donc des faits et des opinions que opinions which the author alone considered seul l’auteur considère appropriés et appropriate and correct for the subject. It convenables au sujet. Elle ne reflète pas does not necessarily reflect the policy or the nécessairement la politique ou l’opinion opinion of any agency, including Government d’un organisme quelconque, y compris le of Canada and the Canadian Department of gouvernement du Canada et le ministère de la Défense nationale du Canada. -
Copyrighted Material
Index affordances 241–2 apps 11, 27–33, 244–5 afterlife 194, 227, 261 Ariely, Dan 28 Agar, Nicholas 15, 162, 313 Aristotle 154, 255 Age of Spiritual Machines, The 47, 54 Arkin, Ronald 64 AGI (Artificial General Intelligence) Armstrong, Stuart 12, 311 61–86, 98–9, 245, 266–7, Arp, Hans/Jean 240–2, 246 298, 311 artificial realities, see virtual reality AGI Nanny 84, 311 Asimov, Isaac 45, 268, 274 aging 61, 207, 222, 225, 259, 315 avatars 73, 76, 201, 244–5, 248–9 AI (artificial intelligence) 3, 9, 12, 22, 30, 35–6, 38–44, 46–58, 72, 91, Banks, Iain M. 235 95, 99, 102, 114–15, 119, 146–7, Barabási, Albert-László 311 150, 153, 157, 198, 284, 305, Barrat, James 22 311, 315 Berger, T.W. 92 non-determinism problem 95–7 Bernal,J.D.264–5 predictions of 46–58, 311 biological naturalism 124–5, 128, 312 altruism 8 biological theories of consciousness 14, Amazon Elastic Compute Cloud 40–1 104–5, 121–6, 194, 312 Andreadis, Athena 223 Blackford, Russell 16–21, 318 androids 44, 131, 194, 197, 235, 244, Blade Runner 21 265, 268–70, 272–5, 315 Block, Ned 117, 265 animal experimentationCOPYRIGHTED 24, 279–81, Blue Brain MATERIAL Project 2, 180, 194, 196 286–8, 292 Bodington, James 16, 316 animal rights 281–2, 285–8, 316 body, attitudes to 4–5, 222–9, 314–15 Anissimov, Michael 12, 311 “Body by Design” 244, 246 Intelligence Unbound: The Future of Uploaded and Machine Minds, First Edition. Edited by Russell Blackford and Damien Broderick. -
And Transhumanism Robert Ranisch & Stefan Lorenz Sorgner Scientific and Technological Advances Have Questioned Predominant Doctrines Concerning the Human Condition
Introducing Post- and Transhumanism Robert Ranisch & Stefan Lorenz Sorgner Scientific and technological advances have questioned predominant doctrines concerning the human condition. Transhumanism and posthumanism are among the most recent and prominent manifestations of this phenomenon. Debates on trans- and posthumanism have not only gained a considerable amount of aca- demic and popular attention recently, but have also created a widespread con- ceptual confusion. This is no surprise, considering their recent dates of origin, their conceptual similarities, and their engagements with similar questions, top- ics, and motifs. Furthermore, trans- as well as posthumanism frequently question their relationship to humanism1 and reconsider what it means to be human. In this regard both movements are streaming beyond humanism. What this means, however, is far from clear and shall be subject of discussion in this volume. In order to make sense of these two approaches and to investigate their inter- relationship, a clarification of these concepts is necessary. As a first approxima- tion, transhumanism can be seen as a stance that affirms the radical transfor- mation of human’s biological capacities and social conditions by means of tech- 1 We will not be able to address the complex histories and varieties of humanism in this chapter. Yet, the following must be noted: The word “humanism” (Humanismus) was coined in 1808 by the German theologian and philosopher Friedrich I. Niethammer in the context of educational curricula, as it is derived from the Latin word humanitas. This word has a variety of meaning but has strongly been identified with the Greek word paideia (παιδεία), e.g., i.) in Cicero’s De Oratore (I, 71) the meaning of the concept hu- manitas corresponds to that of the concept paideia; ii.) in the text Noctes Acticae (XIII, 17) by the Latin author Aulus Gellius, who lived in the 2nd century, an explicit identifi- cation of paideia and humanitas can be found. -
The Forthcoming Artificial Intelligence (AI) Revolution: Its Impact on Society
Futures 90 (2017) 46–60 Contents lists available at ScienceDirect Futures journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/futures Review The forthcoming Artificial Intelligence (AI) revolution: Its impact on society and firms Professor Spyros Makridakis Director Institute For the Future (IFF), University of Nicosia, Cyprus A R T I C L E I N F O A B S T R A C T Article history: Received 10 January 2017 The impact of the industrial and digital (information) revolutions has, undoubtedly, been Received in revised form 17 March 2017 substantial on practically all aspects of our society, life, firms and employment. Will the Accepted 28 March 2017 forthcoming AI revolution produce similar, far-reaching effects? By examining analogous Available online 3 April 2017 inventions of the industrial, digital and AI revolutions, this article claims that the latter is on target and that it would bring extensive changes that will also affect all aspects of our Keywords: society and life. In addition, its impact on firms and employment will be considerable, Artificial Intelligence (AI) resulting in richly interconnected organizations with decision making based on the Industrial revolution analysis and exploitation of “big” data and intensified, global competition among firms. Digital revolution People will be capable of buying goods and obtaining services from anywhere in the world AI revolution using the Internet, and exploiting the unlimited, additional benefits that will open through Impact of AI revolution the widespread usage of AI inventions. The paper concludes that significant competitive Benefits and dangers of AI technologies advantages will continue to accrue to those utilizing the Internet widely and willing to take entrepreneurial risks in order to turn innovative products/services into worldwide commercial success stories. -
Ÿþc R Y O N I C S M a G a Z I N E , Q 1 2 0
2007 RECAP 1st Quarter 2008 • Volume 29:1 2007 ANnual Review page 5 Member Profile: Wes Du Charme page 3 7th Alcor Conference Recap page 13 Cryonics and Religion: Friends or Foes? page 19 INSIDE CRYONICS 2 From the Editor 1ST QUARTER 2008 • VOLUME 29:1 19 Cryonics and Religion: Friends or Foes? The cryonics community recognizes the importance and challenge of being 1st Quarter 2008 • Volume 29:1 understood by the general 2007 RECAP public. Religion plays a sub- Cover shows opening reception stantial role in our diverse at the 7th Alcor conference. 2007 ANnual society and may seem to Review Photo by Brian Harris. page 5 some to be at odds with many facets of scientific COVER STORY: PAGE 5 advancement. Meet one theologian who feels the 2007 Annual Review: Today, over ultimate success of cryonics 850page people 3 in the world rely on the is contingent upon the sup- Member Profile: Wes Du CharmeAlcor Life Extension Foundation for Recap port of more than just great Conferencecryopreservation page 13 services. Enrich your 7th Alcor scientific minds. understanding of present-day clinical advancements with the potential to CryonicsFriends and Religion: or Foes?page 19 significantly benefit Alcor’s growing 22 Book Review: Ending membership base in years to come. Aging Likened to a good detective novel, Ending Aging allures the reader into a real- life tale of the mysteries of aging. The author, Dr. 3 Member Profile: Wes Du Charme Aubrey de Grey, has been Wes Du Charme – psychologist, author and barber shop quartet the center of controversy singer – celebrates his thirteenth year as an Alcor member in since proposing a systematic June 2008. -
Ray Kurzweil Reader Pdf 6-20-03
Acknowledgements The essays in this collection were published on KurzweilAI.net during 2001-2003, and have benefited from the devoted efforts of the KurzweilAI.net editorial team. Our team includes Amara D. Angelica, editor; Nanda Barker-Hook, editorial projects manager; Sarah Black, associate editor; Emily Brown, editorial assistant; and Celia Black-Brooks, graphics design manager and vice president of business development. Also providing technical and administrative support to KurzweilAI.net are Ken Linde, systems manager; Matt Bridges, lead software developer; Aaron Kleiner, chief operating and financial officer; Zoux, sound engineer and music consultant; Toshi Hoo, video engineering and videography consultant; Denise Scutellaro, accounting manager; Joan Walsh, accounting supervisor; Maria Ellis, accounting assistant; and Don Gonson, strategic advisor. —Ray Kurzweil, Editor-in-Chief TABLE OF CONTENTS LIVING FOREVER 1 Is immortality coming in your lifetime? Medical Advances, genetic engineering, cell and tissue engineering, rational drug design and other advances offer tantalizing promises. This section will look at the possibilities. Human Body Version 2.0 3 In the coming decades, a radical upgrading of our body's physical and mental systems, already underway, will use nanobots to augment and ultimately replace our organs. We already know how to prevent most degenerative disease through nutrition and supplementation; this will be a bridge to the emerging biotechnology revolution, which in turn will be a bridge to the nanotechnology revolution. By 2030, reverse-engineering of the human brain will have been completed and nonbiological intelligence will merge with our biological brains. Human Cloning is the Least Interesting Application of Cloning Technology 14 Cloning is an extremely important technology—not for cloning humans but for life extension: therapeutic cloning of one's own organs, creating new tissues to replace defective tissues or organs, or replacing one's organs and tissues with their "young" telomere-extended replacements without surgery. -
Global Challenges Foundation
Artificial Extreme Future Bad Global Global System Major Asteroid Intelligence Climate Change Global Governance Pandemic Collapse Impact Artificial Extreme Future Bad Global Global System Major Asteroid Global Intelligence Climate Change Global Governance Pandemic Collapse Impact Ecological Nanotechnology Nuclear War Super-volcano Synthetic Unknown Challenges Catastrophe Biology Consequences Artificial Extreme Future Bad Global Global System Major Asteroid Ecological NanotechnologyIntelligence NuclearClimate WarChange Super-volcanoGlobal Governance PandemicSynthetic UnknownCollapse Impact Risks that threaten Catastrophe Biology Consequences humanArtificial civilisationExtreme Future Bad Global Global System Major Asteroid 12 Intelligence Climate Change Global Governance Pandemic Collapse Impact Ecological Nanotechnology Nuclear War Super-volcano Synthetic Unknown Catastrophe Biology Consequences Ecological Nanotechnology Nuclear War Super-volcano Synthetic Unknown Catastrophe Biology Consequences Artificial Extreme Future Bad Global Global System Major Asteroid Intelligence Climate Change Global Governance Pandemic Collapse Impact Artificial Extreme Future Bad Global Global System Major Asteroid Intelligence Climate Change Global Governance Pandemic Collapse Impact Artificial Extreme Future Bad Global Global System Major Asteroid Intelligence Climate Change Global Governance Pandemic Collapse Impact Artificial Extreme Future Bad Global Global System Major Asteroid IntelligenceEcological ClimateNanotechnology Change NuclearGlobal Governance -
Transhumanism
T ranshumanism - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=T ranshum... Transhumanism From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia See also: Outline of transhumanism Transhumanism is an international Part of Ideology series on intellectual and cultural movement supporting Transhumanism the use of science and technology to improve human mental and physical characteristics Ideologies and capacities. The movement regards aspects Abolitionism of the human condition, such as disability, Democratic transhumanism suffering, disease, aging, and involuntary Extropianism death as unnecessary and undesirable. Immortalism Transhumanists look to biotechnologies and Libertarian transhumanism other emerging technologies for these Postgenderism purposes. Dangers, as well as benefits, are Singularitarianism also of concern to the transhumanist Technogaianism [1] movement. Related articles The term "transhumanism" is symbolized by Transhumanism in fiction H+ or h+ and is often used as a synonym for Transhumanist art "human enhancement".[2] Although the first known use of the term dates from 1957, the Organizations contemporary meaning is a product of the 1980s when futurists in the United States Applied Foresight Network Alcor Life Extension Foundation began to organize what has since grown into American Cryonics Society the transhumanist movement. Transhumanist Cryonics Institute thinkers predict that human beings may Foresight Institute eventually be able to transform themselves Humanity+ into beings with such greatly expanded Immortality Institute abilities as to merit the label "posthuman".[1] Singularity Institute for Artificial Intelligence Transhumanism is therefore sometimes Transhumanism Portal · referred to as "posthumanism" or a form of transformational activism influenced by posthumanist ideals.[3] The transhumanist vision of a transformed future humanity has attracted many supporters and detractors from a wide range of perspectives. -
Artificial Intelligence and Its Implications for Income Distribution
Artificial Intelligence and Its Implications ... The Economics of Artifi cial Intelligence National Bureau of Economic Research Conference Report The Economics of Artifi cial Intelligence: An Agenda Edited by Ajay Agrawal, Joshua Gans, and Avi Goldfarb The University of Chicago Press Chicago and London The University of Chicago Press, Chicago 60637 The University of Chicago Press, Ltd., London © 2019 by the National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. All rights reserved. No part of this book may be used or reproduced in any manner whatsoever without written permission, except in the case of brief quotations in critical articles and reviews. For more information, contact the University of Chicago Press, 1427 E. 60th St., Chicago, IL 60637. Published 2019 Printed in the United States of America 28 27 26 25 24 23 22 21 20 19 1 2 3 4 5 ISBN-13: 978-0-226-61333-8 (cloth) ISBN-13: 978-0-226-61347-5 (e-book) DOI: https:// doi .org / 10 .7208 / chicago / 9780226613475 .001 .0001 Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Names: Agrawal, Ajay, editor. | Gans, Joshua, 1968– editor. | Goldfarb, Avi, editor. Title: The economics of artifi cial intelligence : an agenda / Ajay Agrawal, Joshua Gans, and Avi Goldfarb, editors. Other titles: National Bureau of Economic Research conference report. Description: Chicago ; London : The University of Chicago Press, 2019. | Series: National Bureau of Economic Research conference report | Includes bibliographical references and index. Identifi ers: LCCN 2018037552 | ISBN 9780226613338 (cloth : alk. paper) | ISBN 9780226613475 (ebook) Subjects: LCSH: Artifi cial intelligence—Economic aspects. Classifi cation: LCC TA347.A78 E365 2019 | DDC 338.4/ 70063—dc23 LC record available at https:// lccn .loc .gov / 2018037552 ♾ This paper meets the requirements of ANSI/ NISO Z39.48-1992 (Permanence of Paper). -
The Singularity and Human Destiny by Patrick Tucker, Assistant Editor, the FUTURIST
The Singularity and Human Destiny by Patrick Tucker, Assistant Editor, THE FUTURIST In 1949, several decades before the birth of the Thomas Moore’s Utopia and Christopher PC, computer scientist John von Neumann an- Marlow’s Doctor Faustus, but according to Ray nounced, “It would appear we have reached the Kurzweil it is our real and fast-approaching limits of what is possible to achieve with com- future. It will come about as the result of an ex- puter technology.” He quickly and prudently plosion in our technological abilities. We will in- added, “One should be careful with such state- corporate more computer-based processes into ments; they tend to sound pretty silly in five our biological functioning until we transcend years.” our crude, earthly bodies entirely and become More than half a century later, it is Neumann’s machine-based, virtually immortal. This coming caveat rather than his prediction that is borne out period of rapid technological progress and its daily. Our computer intelligence is growing at an miraculous effects will occur within the next 50 ever-quickening pace, surpassed only by our de- years and is what Kurzweil refers to as the pendence on computer technology. For many of Singularity. us, computers and computer-based devices have The concept is both startling and optimistic, become not so much tools as appendages, third but it immediately provokes certain philosophi- arms that are integral to our lives, cumbersome on cal concerns. If nanotechnology allows us to occasion, and increasingly willful. This begs the create any object, will any object ever again be obvious question: If computer power advances be- valuable? What role will responsibility, temper- yond our control, how will that change us? ance, and discipline play in a world where any In his most recent book, The Singularity Is Near, urge can be gratified at almost the same moment author and inventor Ray Kurzweil provides us it is felt? What will pass for morality when there with a clue. -
Intelligence Explosion Microeconomics
MIRI MACHINE INTELLIGENCE RESEARCH INSTITUTE Intelligence Explosion Microeconomics Eliezer Yudkowsky Machine Intelligence Research Institute Abstract I. J. Good’s thesis of the “intelligence explosion” states that a sufficiently advanced ma- chine intelligence could build a smarter version of itself, which could in turn build an even smarter version, and that this process could continue to the point of vastly exceeding human intelligence. As Sandberg (2010) correctly notes, there have been several attempts to lay down return on investment formulas intended to represent sharp speedups in economic or technological growth, but very little attempt has been made to deal formally with Good’s intelligence explosion thesis as such. I identify the key issue as returns on cognitive reinvestment—the ability to invest more computing power, faster computers, or improved cognitive algorithms to yield cognitive labor which produces larger brains, faster brains, or better mind designs. There are many phenomena in the world which have been argued to be evidentially relevant to this question, from the observed course of hominid evolution, to Moore’s Law, to the competence over time of machine chess-playing systems, and many more. I go into some depth on some debates which then arise on how to interpret such evidence. I propose that the next step in analyzing positions on the intelligence explosion would be to for- malize return on investment curves, so that each stance can formally state which possible microfoundations they hold to be falsified by historical observations. More generally, Yudkowsky, Eliezer. 2013. Intelligence Explosion Microeconomics. Technical report 2013-1. Berkeley, CA: Machine Intelligence Research Institute.