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Resources on Existential Risk Resources on Existential Risk For: Catastrophic Risk: Technologies and Policies Berkman Center for Internet and Society Harvard University Bruce Schneier, Instructor Fall 2015 Contents General Scholarly Discussion of Existential Risk ....................................................................................... 1 Nick Bostrom (Mar 2002), "Existential risks: Analyzing human extinction scenarios and related hazards." ................................................................................................................................... 1 Jason Matheney (Oct 2007), "Reducing the risk of human extinction." ............................................... 2 Nick Bostrom and Milan Ćirković (2008), "Introduction." .................................................................... 3 Anders Sandberg and Nick Bostrom (5 Dec 2008), “Global catastrophic risks survey.” ....................... 5 Nick Bostrom (2009), "The future of humanity." .................................................................................. 6 Nick Bostrom (Feb 2013), "Existential risk prevention as global priority." ........................................... 7 Kira Matus (25 Nov 2014), "Existential risk: challenges for risk regulation." ....................................... 7 Seth Baum (Dec 2014), "The great downside dilemma for risky emerging technologies." ................ 10 Dennis Pamlin and Stuart Armstrong (19 Feb 2015), "Twelve risks that threaten human civilisation: The case for a new risk category." ................................................................................... 11 Seth Baum and Anthony Barrett (5 Feb 2015), "The most extreme risks: Global catastrophes." ..................................................................................................................................... 12 Seth Baum (4 May 2015), "The far future argument for confronting catastrophic threats to humanity: Practical significance and alternatives."........................................................................ 14 Andy Majot and Roman Yampolskiy (13 Apr 2015), "Global catastrophic risk and security implications of quantum computers." ................................................................................................ 14 Philip Doty (Jul 2015), "U.S. homeland security and risk assessment." .............................................. 15 Popular Journalism & Public Speeches on Existential Risk ..................................................................... 16 Bill Joy (Apr 2000), "Why the future doesn't need us." ...................................................................... 16 Stephen Petranek (Feb 2002), "Ten ways the world could end (Video)." .......................................... 33 Lawrence Lessig (Apr 2004), "Insanely destructive devices." ............................................................. 33 Martin Rees (15 Jul 2005), "Is this our final century? (Video)." .......................................................... 35 Huw Price (27 Jan 2013), "Cambridge, cabs and Copenhagen: My route to existential risk." .................................................................................................................................................... 35 Martin Rees (8 Mar 2013), "Denial of catastrophic risks." ................................................................. 39 Bruce Schneier (14 Mar 2013), "Our security models will never work, no matter what we do." ...................................................................................................................................................... 40 Francesco Guerrera (24 Jun, 2013), "Current account: Cyberattacks are banks’ latest ‘existential risk’." ................................................................................................................................. 41 Martin Rees (Jul 2013), "Is this our final century?" ............................................................................ 41 Martin Rees (4 Oct 2013), "Martin Rees on climate change, manned space missions and existential risk." ................................................................................................................................... 42 Andrew Martin (30 Aug 2014), "The scientific A‐Team saving the world from killer viruses, rogue AI and the paperclip apocalypse." ............................................................................... 44 Martin Rees (20 Mar 2014), "Can we prevent the end of the world? (Video)." ................................. 49 Anders Sandberg (11 Jun 2014), "The five biggest threats to human existence." ............................. 49 Paul Kennedy (22 Oct 2014), "How to think about science, Part 5 (Audio)." ..................................... 50 Erin Biba (19 May 2015), "Meet the co‐founder of an apocalypse think tank (Interview with Martin Rees)." ............................................................................................................................. 51 Max Tegmark (16 Apr 2015), "Existential risk: A conversation with Jaan Tallinn." ............................ 51 Tony Ord (17 Jun 2015), "Toby Ord on the likelihood of natural and anthropogenic existential risks (Video)." .................................................................................................................... 51 Daniel Faggella (30 Jun 2015), "On existential risk and individual contribution to the 'good' (Audio).” ................................................................................................................................... 52 Catastrophic Risk Analysis ....................................................................................................................... 53 Richard Posner (2005), "Catastrophic risks, resource allocation, and homeland security." .............. 53 Charles Meade and Roger Molander (21 Jul 2006), "Considering the effects of a catastrophic terrorist attack." ............................................................................................................. 66 Cass Sunstein (21 Feb 2007), "The catastrophic harm precautionary principle." .............................. 68 Leonie A. Marks, et al. (Apr 2007), "Mass media framing of biotechnology news." .......................... 69 Anders Sandberg, Jason Matheny, and Milan M. Ćirković (9 Sep 2008), "How can we reduce the risk of human extinction?" ............................................................................................... 70 Toby Ord, Rafaela Hillerbrand, and Anders Sandberg (30 Oct 2008), "Probing the improbable: Methodological challenges for risks with low probability and high stakes." ................. 73 Martin Weitzman (Feb 2009), "On modeling and interpreting the economics of catastrophic climate change." ............................................................................................................ 75 Mark Jablonowski (14 Jun 2009), "Increasing uncertainty about high‐stakes risks: The impetus for radical change?" .............................................................................................................. 76 Bruce Tonn and Dorian Stiefel (Nov 2014), "Human extinction risk and uncertainty: Assessing conditions for action." ....................................................................................................... 78 Milan Ćirković, Anders Sandberg, and Nick Bostom (Oct 2010), "Anthropic shadow: Observation selection effects and human extinction risks." .............................................................. 79 Nick Bostrom, Anders Sandberg, and Tom Douglas (28 Feb 2013), "The Unilateralist’s Curse: The case for a principle of conformity." .................................................................................. 81 Stuart Armstrong (14 Dec 2012), "Nash equilibrium of identical agents facing the Unilateralist's Curse." .......................................................................................................................... 84 Bruce Tonn and Dorian Stiefel (Oct 2013), "Evaluating methods for estimating existential risks." ................................................................................................................................................... 84 Owen Cotton‐Barratt and Toby Ord (9 Jan 2015), "Existential risk and existential hope: Definitions." ........................................................................................................................................ 85 Seth Baum (Jun 2015), "Risk and resilience for unknown, unquantifiable, systemic, and unlikely/catastrophic threats." ........................................................................................................... 86 Risk Posed by Nuclear Weapons ............................................................................................................. 90 E.J. Konopinski, C. Marvin, and Edward Teller (1946), "Ignition of the atmosphere with nuclear bombs." .................................................................................................................................. 90 Herman Kahn (20 Jan 1960), "The nature and feasibility of war and deterrence." ........................... 90 Philip Quarles (26 Oct 2012), “Herman Kahn on world annihilation (Audio)." .................................. 90 Armed Forces Special Weapons Project, Sandia Base (1957), "Acceptable premature probabilities for nuclear weapons." .................................................................................................... 91 Martin E. Hellman (2014),
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