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Final Report Feasibility Plan for Maximum Truck to Rail Diversion in Virginia’s I-81 Corridor final report prepared for the Commonwealth of Virginia prepared by Cambridge Systematics, Inc. April 15, 2010 www.camsys.com final report Feasibility Plan for Maximum Truck to Rail Diversion in Virginia’s I-81 Corridor prepared for the Commonwealth of Virginia prepared by Cambridge Systematics, Inc. 4800 Hampden Lane, Suite 800 Bethesda, Maryland 20814 April 15, 2010 Feasibility Plan for Maximum Truck to Rail Diversion in Virginia’s I-81 Corridor Table of Contents Executive Summary .............................................................................................................. ES-1 Purpose of this Study ................................................................................................... ES-1 Current and Future Freight Activity in the I-81 Corridor....................................... ES-1 Strategies to Achieve the Maximum Feasible Truck to Rail Diversion ................. ES-2 Recommendations and Action Plan ......................................................................... ES-8 1.0 Introduction.................................................................................................................... 1-1 1.1 Freight Movement in Virginia............................................................................. 1-1 1.2 The I-81 Corridor: Challenges and Opportunities........................................... 1-2 1.3 Prior I-81 Studies ................................................................................................... 1-2 1.4 About this Report.................................................................................................. 1-3 2.0 Current and Future Freight Activity in the I-81 Corridor...................................... 2-1 2.1 I-81 Location and Route Characteristics ............................................................ 2-1 2.2 Vehicle Activity on I-81 ........................................................................................ 2-3 2.3 Current and Future Performance of I-81 ........................................................... 2-15 2.4 Rail Lines Paralleling I-81 .................................................................................... 2-22 3.0 Strategies to Achieve the Maximum Feasible Diversion....................................... 3-1 3.1 Potentially Divertible Trucks............................................................................... 3-1 3.2 Mode Selection, Competitive Factors, and Targeted Diversion Strategies... 3-6 3.3 Strategy #1: Expand Conventional Intermodal Rail Terminals, Network Capacities, and Services ....................................................................................... 3-10 3.4 Strategy #2: Introduce Multistate Network of Open Technology Terminals................................................................................................................ 3-21 3.5 Strategy #3: Develop and Enhance Intermodal and Open Technology Terminals in Virginia............................................................................................ 3-26 3.6 Strategy #4: Introduce Higher-Speed Open Technology ............................... 3-29 3.7 Strategy #5: Implement Very High-Speed Truck Intercept/Truck Shuttle Service..................................................................................................................... 3-35 3.8 Summary of Maximum Feasible Diversion....................................................... 3-40 4.0 Action Plan to Achieve the Maximum Feasible Truck to Rail Diversion .......... 4-1 4.1 Recommendations and Action Plan ................................................................... 4-1 4.2 Issues Related to the Crescent Corridor Program ........................................... 4-2 4.3 Issues Related to the I-81 Tier I EIS .................................................................... 4-5 4.4 Conclusion and Next Steps.................................................................................. 4-6 Cambridge Systematics, Inc. i Feasibility Plan for Maximum Truck to Rail Diversion in Virginia’s I-81 Corridor List of Tables ES.1 Potentially Divertible I-81 Trucks by Distance and Technology ........................... ES-2 ES.2 Strategies to Divert Trucks to Rail.............................................................................. ES-4 ES.3 Benefits and Costs from Combinations of Strategies............................................... ES-6 1. 24-Hour Origin-Destination Surveys at I-81 Weigh Stations.................................. 2-11 2. Example of Fuel Cost Effects on Truck and Rail Demand ...................................... 2-19 3. Comparison of Annual Traffic Estimates for I-81 .................................................... 2-20 4. Updated I-81 Truck Forecasts, No Truck-Rail Diversion........................................ 2-22 5. I-81 Freight Rail Volumes and Forecasts, No Truck-Rail Diversion...................... 2-27 6. Percent of I-81 Trucks by Trip Length and Type...................................................... 3-2 7. Estimated I-81 Trucks (in Year 2008) by Trip Length and Type ............................ 3-2 8. Percent of I-81 Trucks by Routing Type .................................................................... 3-3 9. Number of I-81 Trucks by Routing Type................................................................... 3-3 10. Potentially Divertible I-81 Trucks .............................................................................. 3-4 11. Potentially Divertible I-81 Trucks by Distance and Technology............................ 3-6 12. Strategies to Divert Trucks to Rail.............................................................................. 3-9 13. Estimates of Feasible Truck to Rail Diversion Rates for Conventional Intermodal Service, Based on Costs .................................................. 3-11 14. Estimates of Feasible Truck to Rail Diversion Rates for Conventional Intermodal Service, Based on Business Strategy ............................. 3-14 15. Origins and Destinations for Trucks Diverted from I-81 by Crescent Corridor Program.................................................................................... 3-18 16. Trucks Diverted from I-81 by Crescent Corridor Program (2012) ......................... 3-18 17. Trucks Diverted from I-81 by Crescent Corridor Program (2008 Equivalents) ... 3-19 Cambridge Systematics, Inc. ii Feasibility Plan for Maximum Truck to Rail Diversion in Virginia’s I-81 Corridor List of Tables (continued) 18. Benefits and Costs of Strategy #1 ............................................................................... 3-20 19. Estimates of Feasible Truck to Rail Diversion Rates for Conventional Speed Open Technology, Based on Business Strategy ........................................................ 3-23 20. Benefits and Costs of Strategy #2 ............................................................................... 3-25 21. Estimates of Feasible Truck to Rail Diversion Rates for Virginia Terminals, Based on Business Strategy.......................................................................................... 3-27 22. Benefits and Costs of Strategy #3 ............................................................................... 3-28 23. Estimates of Feasible Truck to Rail Diversion Rates for Higher-Speed Open Technology ................................................................................ 3-32 24. Benefits and Costs of Strategy #4 ............................................................................... 3-33 25. Estimates of Feasible Truck to Rail Diversion for Very High-Speed Truck Intercept/Truck Shuttle Service....................................... 3-37 26. Benefits and Costs of Strategy #5 ............................................................................... 3-38 27. Benefits and Costs from Combinations of Strategies............................................... 3-41 Cambridge Systematics, Inc. iii Feasibility Plan for Maximum Truck to Rail Diversion in Virginia’s I-81 Corridor List of Figures ES.1 Comparison of Truck to Rail Diversion Percentages............................................... ES-7 ES.2 Total Units Diverted Through 2035 and Capital Costs in Virginia........................ ES-7 ES.3 Cost in Virginia per Diverted Unit Through 2035 ................................................... ES-8 1. Study Objective............................................................................................................. 1-3 2. I-81 and the Interstate Highway System.................................................................... 2-1 3. Interstate 81 in Virginia................................................................................................ 2-2 4. Average Annual Daily Traffic (AADT), All Vehicle Types, Averaged Over All Highway Segments, 2008 .......................................................... 2-3 5. Average Hourly Variations in I-81 Corridor Traffic, 2003 ...................................... 2-4 6. Average Day-of-Week Variations in I-81 Corridor Traffic, 2003............................ 2-5 7. Average Monthly Variations in I-81 Corridor Traffic, 2003.................................... 2-5 8. Average Annual Daily Truck Traffic (AADTT), Averaged Over All Highway Segments, 2008 .......................................................... 2-6 9. Average Hourly Truck Traffic at Three I-81 Locations............................................ 2-7
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