SUSTAINABLE FUTURES, STRATEGIES, AND TECHNOLOGIES At the World Future Society’s 2010 annual meeting in Boston, minds meet and futures happen. By Cynthia G. Wagner

PHOTOS BY AARON M. COHEN AND C.G. WAGNER Inventor Ray Kurzweil, author of Bioethicist Wendell Wallach of The Singularity Is Yale University describes himself Near and the forth- as a “friendly skeptic” about the coming How the potential for machine intelligence Mind Works and to surpass that of humans. How to Build One,

AARON M. COHEN offered an eye- AARON M. COHEN opening overview of exponential World Future Society Palo Alto High growth in a wide President Tim Mack School senior variety of areas. served as master of Nittai Malchin ceremonies for the describes the opening and closing organization he plenary sessions at established WorldFuture 2010. for providing computers and AARON M. COHEN computer literacy AARON M. COHEN to Haitian schoolchildren.

Journalist Michael Rogers argued that the trend of more people living more of C.G. WAGNER their lives “virtually” is as historically signifi- NASA chief scientist Dennis Bushnell (left) cant a change as the chats with a conference goer following his movement toward presentation on Technology Futures and Their urbanization. Massive Potential Societal Impacts.

C.G. WAGNER C.G. WAGNER

A Youth Forum was organized during the conference to solicit feedback from futur- ists under age 30 on what programs the Society could offer that would be of use to them. The discussion was moderated by Ted Kahn (back to camera), president of DesignWorlds for Learning and Design- Worlds for College and Careers. © 2010 World Future Society • 7910 Woodmont Avenue, Suite 450, Bethesda, MD 20814, U.S.A. • All rights reserved.

he “meeting of minds” that in biotech, nanotech, and infotech, not consider potential costs and perils.­ typically occurs at World the convergence of which is leading Wallach advocated a new field of Future Society conferences il- to accelerated growth. inquiry—machine morality—to ad- lustrates the difference be- Wallach described himself as a dress the complex issues arising Ttween “group think” and “col- “friendly skeptic” of forecasts for from these converging technological lective wisdom.” At WorldFuture machine intelligence that matches or advances: Do we need artificial 2010 in Boston, the 800 “minds” exceeds that of human intelligence moral agents, and if so, whose mo- came from a diversity of cultures and within the next 20 years. rality will they apply? And just how disciplines, and they converged not “We underappreciate the complex- can morality be implemented in ma- to come to one mind but to learn ity of being human,” Wallach said. chines? A cautionary example from one another. The lesson is that, “We overembellish the acceleration ­Wallach cited was the potential for to build a future that is sustainable of technological progress.” He an “unmanned military.” There is for all, we need partners. pointed out that replicating human little discussion in the military One of those “partners” is the ma- consciousness with machines is a about applications of machine con- chines that we are building, and the complex challenge, and we don’t sciousness beyond meeting short- acceleration of technological devel- currently know enough about con- term goals, he charged. For ex- opment and convergence is a major sciousness to even know if it is ample, how would a robot know if force affecting the future. Yale Uni- unique to carbon-based systems (i.e., a surgeon with a knife wasn’t trying versity bioethicist Wendell Wallach life forms). Moreover, much of the to kill a soldier/patient and then act opened the conference with an over- thinking about the Singularity is to prevent the critical procedure? view of revolutionary developments technological determinism and does “Society needs to take responsibil-

Creating Intelligent Countries through Forward Engagement By Wendy McGuinness C. G. WAGNER Leon Fuerth is a man who does using a combination of soft and not like surprises. A former Na- hard power to respond to emerg- tional Security Adviser to Vice ing issues early, thus delivering President Al Gore, he explained big results for emerging issues at how during the Clinton/Gore era low costs. he noticed a significant change in But this was not the whole solu- the landscape, not only in terms tion. Fuerth noted that the previ- of velocity and trajectory, but also ous approach was based on at in terms of complexity. He noted, least three broad assumptions: for example, how no one in the that issues could be assessed in United States had foreseen the de- isolation, along linear lines, and bate about genetically modified that a clear end point did exist. Leon Fuerth, former adviser to food, and as a consequence the Today, the contrary view exists. Vice President Al Gore, de- United States was unprepared for Issues tend to have a deeper con- scribes the need for “forward the European Union response. text, are more uncertain (small engagement” in governance. He wondered, “Did Moore’s changes can have big effects), are law also relate to the compilation more integrated, and, rather than and handling of data?” In which disappear from view, their impor- case, does the United States need tance tends to ebb and flow over response by delegating decision a new form of intelligent system time. making further down the ranks. to cater for this new environ- Fuerth puts forward three com- Lastly, and most importantly, ment? ponents necessary to create an in- countries need formal feedback Fuerth had been impressed by telligent system. First, there needs loops, so that decision makers can the application of “forward de- to be a formal foresight system for learn from both their successes ployment” by the military, and the whole of government; national and their failures. See www questioned whether this concept security can no longer be seen in .forwardengagement.org. could form part of the solution isolation. Second, there must be a when applied to the nonmilitary networked approach to the formu- Wendy McGuinness is the founder of the sector. “Forward engagement” lation and execution of the policy; Sustainable Future Institute, Wellington, New Zealand, www.sustainablefuture.info. seemed to fit the job description— in other words, a flatter and faster

THE FUTURIST November-December 2010 49 Challenges and Opportunities in Space Medicine By Richard Yonck

Commercial space passengers will face many preexisting medical condition could be made worse complex and interacting risk factors, according to by exposure to the stresses of space flight.” Melchor Antuñano, director of the FAA Civil Space medicine studies have yielded some Aerospace Medical Institute. The medical unexpected observations. In preflight centrifuge considerations for commercial travelers will be very training at Virgin Galactic, participants ranged from different from those of professional astronauts, who 22 to 88 years of age. Contrary to expectations, the have been selected for optimum health, older participants tolerated acceleration better, conditioning, and training. presumably due to having stiffer blood vessels from To date, only the United States has established hypertension and arteriosclerosis. Nonetheless, licensing requirements for manned commercial these conditions still place the older passengers at space operations. One of the very strict requirements greater risk from other factors they would face. of this is that passengers have to be fully informed To date, space tourism has been limited to an elite about all of the potential risks of participating in few. The space tourism company Space Adventures space flights. This begs the question of how has flown a total of seven commercial passengers to extensively the potential risks should be disclosed. the International Space Station aboard Soyuz On the one hand, proper disclosure is mandated. On spacecraft. This level of exclusivity is about to change. the other, a commercial venture doesn’t want to In 2012, Virgin ­Galactic is scheduled to begin sub- scare away all of its passengers. orbital passenger flights, and ­Bigelow Aerospace In addition to this, our experience in space is still plans to have its orbiting hotel operational that same very limited; we simply don’t know all of the year. potential risks, especially for the broader population. It’s anticipated there will be significant growth of When all space flights were government-run, the commercial space tourism during the coming decade. issue of liability and litigation in the event of injury Futron/Zogby estimates that by 2021 there will be or death wasn’t a significant matter. This will change 13,000 suborbital passengers annually, resulting in entirely as we move into an era of commercial space $650 million in revenue. Many companies are ventures. currently working to make commercial space flight a The risks to passengers are considerable. Potential viable industry. operational and environmental risk factors include But even once the hurdles of developing acceleration, barometric pressure, microgravity, commercial spacecraft have been overcome, there ionizing and nonionizing radiation, noise, vibration, will still remain many challenges to protecting the temperature and humidity, cabin air, and behavioral health and well-being of paying space travelers. issues. Richard Yonck is a foresight analyst with Intelligent Future LLC. “We have to keep in mind that, for commercial He was a participant in the Futurist Writers Workshop during orbital space flights, there will be limited medical WorldFuture 2010. E-mail [email protected]. intervention capabilities,” Antuñano observed. “Any

ity for the futures it creates,” Wallach ment is exponential and that this will have a little problem with the term concluded. give humans enormous new oppor- transhumanist, which implies we’re tunities. For example, he noted that going to transcend humanity. I actu- The Coming Singularity Facebook and Google were started ally think we are going to transcend by a couple of kids with an idea. He biology, but not humanity. We’re go- While Wallach said he did not be- emphasized that the success of such ing to enhance humanity. That, any- lieve a technological Singularity enterprises were a result of collabor- way, is the goal of developing artifi- (when machine intelligence matches ative decision making. cial intelligence and merging with it. or surpasses human intelligence) Kurzweil’s presentation focused It’s not an alien invasion of intelligent would occur within the next 100 on the future of human intelligence, machines from over the horizon.” years, he anticipated that we would which is the topic of the book he is What these developments will lead see “brilliant computers” in the next working on, How the Mind Works and to for the human future is not a re- 10 to 30 years. However, it would be How to Build One. “What’s really im- placement of human beings, but an a mistake to believe they are smarter portant is that we are gaining expo- enhancement of them, he argued, than they are. nentially in understanding our own and the merging of humans with Inventor Ray Kurzweil argued that intelligence. … I do consider it hu- machines will create an augmented the pace of technological advance- man intelligence,” he stressed. “I do reality, which will surround us all

50 THE FUTURIST November-December 2010 C. G. WAGNER

Conference chair Carol Rieg chats with a participant as WorldFuture 2010 opens. Rieg is the corporate foundation officer for Bentley Systems Inc., a sponsor for the conference. Among Bentley’s contributions was a series of webinars with speakers designed to showcase the conference themes and activities to prospective ­attendees.

AARON M. COHEN the time, according to Kurzweil. “When we get to 2029, this will re- ally be an intimate merger,” he said. “These devices are going to go inside our bodies and brains, they’re going to keep us healthy from inside, they’re going to directly augment our intelligence. So I don’t think it’s a matter of, ‘Well, gee, when we cre- ate these machines that are more in- telligent than we are, they will have no use for us and it’s going to be this conflict between man and machine.’ We are the human–machine civiliza- tion already. We create these devices to make ourselves more intelligent.” Journalist Michael Rogers weighed both the negative and positive sides of accelerating technological develop- The Unemployment Conundrum ments. On the positive side, our de- At WorldFuture 2010, business futurists Arnold Brown and Edie Weiner provided an vices are learning how we live and overview of the major trends altering the landscape for workers, focusing on the areas how to become more helpful compan- of highest potential growth. ions to us. For instance, cars could Brown noted that people’s expectations have increased because of advanced educa- monitor your driving habits, allowing tion, and the promise that jobs would be there for them has not been realized in most places. Historically, jobs often emerge to replace other jobs, but now many jobs are your insurance company to bill you being replaced by artificial intelligence. As a result, middle management is disappearing, by the mile and by your behavior. and long-term unemployment even among workers with a bachelor’s degree is a grow- However, a key challenge to this ing problem. new era will be the need to develop The recent recession, according to Weiner, was a fundamental economic transforma- the rule of law. “So far, most govern- tion, generated by a confluence of technologies that are creating whole new busi- ments have been laissez faire” about nesses—and thus new jobs. For instance, neuroscience is bringing better understanding the issues surrounding technology’s of how the mind works, opening up new career areas like neuro-design and neuro- impacts on society, and “it’s now education, she said. Monetizing people’s need for more time and storage space will also lawless,” Rogers noted. He pointed yield new business and job prospects. out that identity theft has become so easy and so common that there was recently a “fire sale” at the interna- cards and licensing of Internet use. such as those described by Wallach, tional online bulletin boards that Kurzweil, and Rogers. Consultant Janine Cahill, traffic in stolen credit card numbers. Co-creating the Future ­ managing director of The joke about nobody knowing Future Journeys in Sydney, Australia, you’re a dog on the Internet has got One goal of professional futurists is outlined the Live Futures methodol- to end, he said, and we may see a call helping organizations and communi- ogy used in her work with corpora- for such things as national identity ties deal with the impacts of change tions to inspire and create the future.

THE FUTURIST November-December 2010 51 “Global Megacrisis” Survey: How Big? What’s Likely by 2020? By Wilton A. (Bud) Roberts

In 2009, futurists Michael seeing unprecedented changes: nance. Technology is not enough Marien and William Halal engaged destabilization of the climate to deal with these problems, he in a dialogue on the “global (which has been basically stable said. megacrisis,” published in World for the past 20,000 years); popula- Schwartz-Morgan added that Future Review. To “resolve” the tion demographics (age, ratio of we can expect to see more failed debate, they created a survey, the sexes); and technologies. We states. In Africa, 80%–90% have hosted by Halal’s TechCast proj- are reminded of prehistoric wild no electricity and only 15% have ect (www.techcast.org). cards by the recent Iceland vol- connectivity to the Internet. At WorldFuture 2010, Marien, cano eruption. Things are slowly getting better director of the New and Forth- “Our ability to react is inversely there. In a muddle, technology coming Books Website project, proportional to the scale of the can be used to simplify where we presented the results from the problem,” she said. We see catas- fit. The choices to be made are hu- questionnaire on how severe the trophe with rejoice (religious) or man. Big issues include inequi- pending “global megacrisis” as a good show, not as a personal ties, especially with the urbaniza- might be, and several participants reality. It is easier to sell. We want tion of the world’s populations. offered their feedback on the sur- a common good. We are immortal Exacerbation is a worry. vey and on the forecasts under- phoenixes. Marien further commented that pinning the megacrisis. Miguel Angel Gutierrez, direc- we should concentrate on what Nicole Schwartz-Morgan, a pro- tor of the Latin American Center we can do instead of trying to fessor at the Royal Military Col- of Globalization and Futures deal with “2012” or other prob- lege of Canada, Ottawa, said that Studies in Buenos Aires, predicts lems that are unknown. her answers to the questionnaire the collapse of the U.S. economy Wilton A. (Bud) Roberts was a participant were forced by the questions. Her (technology without supervision), in the Futurist Writers Workshop, a precon- real answer is that we have no cycles of boom and depression, ference course offered at WorldFuture clues whatsoever. “The future is reality of globalization (not ex- 2010. E-mail wilton.roberts@gmail.com. not what it used to be.” We are pansion), and crisis of gover-

AARON M. COHEN Experiences are unique to individu- Men and Women: The Battle als, so it is “important to gather and for Supremacy work with others to create a sustain- Consultant Karen Moloney offered insights on the social, able future,” Cahill said. The new tech- cultural, and economic impacts nologies of social media are enabling of changing gender roles and this co-creation by allowing individu- sexuality. als to participate “in more conversa- Three possible scenarios she tions in more places at once, all con- described were “Carry On Carrying tributing ideas and links,” she said. On,” in which the workforce be- Social innovation and networking comes increasingly feminized but are also facilitating the development “male” and “female” jobs still exist; of more sustainable cities, according “Back to the Kitchen,” in which to John Mahaffie and Jennifer housework remains “women’s” work, ­Jarratt, largely by choice among younger principals of Leading Futur- generations who do not equate ists LLC. For example, Web sites like domesticity with servitude; and NeighborGoods.net and FreeCycle “Parallel Worlds,” in which attempts .org enable neighbors to borrow or for men and women to work together rent items from each other, thus re- largely fail, leading more women to ducing costs as well as waste in the start their own businesses. community. Moloney concluded that, should The opportunity for bonding that women achieve “supremacy” in the Karen Moloney, consultant such social innovation offers should battle of the sexes, they are unlikely and writer on the changing not be lost on organizations and in- to seek revenge against males nature of work. despite millennia of hegemony.­ stitutions, because “the public is continued on page 54

52 THE FUTURIST November-December 2010 AARON M. COHEN Susan Avery, president and director of Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution.

Oceans and Our Global Future Humans have only had the technology to study the oceans for the past 150 years, and it is now time to think about what we want the ocean to look like in the next 50 years, said Susan Avery, the first atmospheric scientist (and first woman) to head an oceanographic institute. The impacts of changes in the ocean, including fish catches and sea levels, will be felt differently around the world, she noted. Fish catches are down, despite improving technologies, but the wealthier economies such as the United States, Japan, and Europe will likely continue to reap most of the supply. We need a better understanding of human interaction with the oceans and the environment, which cross geopolitical boundaries, Avery said. She argued that scientists around the world need to join together, along with industries, to promote the legislation and economic stimulation needed to live sustainably.

AARON M. COHEN

Futurist of the Year: Theodore J. Gordon Millennium Project senior fellow Theodore­ J. Gordon was honored during the closing session of ­WorldFuture 2010 as recipient of the first Edward Cornish Award: Futurist of the Year. Gordon was nominated for his work in 2009 with the Millennium Project’s Futures Research Methodology Ver- sion 3.0 and the State of the Future annual report, yet his outstanding career truly merits acclamation as a futures pioneer. During the conference, Gordon also presented at the session on Collective Intelligence, a methodology developed by the Millennium Project for sharing data and knowledge among decision makers.

Theodore J. Gordon

THE FUTURIST November-December 2010 53 José Cordeiro (bottom left), founder of the World Future Society’s Venezuela Chapter, moderates a session showcasing the team projects of students at Singularity University. Participants include (clockwise from top left) Luke Hutchison, Justyna Zander, Jessica Scorpio, and Nitesh Banta.

PHOTOS: AARON M. COHEN continued from page 52 tions’ ability to cope with liabilities ducing new futurists. they never had before, Stewart said. At WorldFuture 2010, participants smarter than they think,” said Art Reputation matters, and corpora- heard from students of the Univer- Stewart, president of Stewart Strate- tions will increasingly need to ana- sity of Houston’s Futures Studies gies Group. From the mismanage- lyze “the reputational impacts of program (session led by Peter ment of responses to natural disas- ­everything they do.” Bishop), demonstrating the use of al- ters such as Hurricane Katrina to the ternative scenarios on topics such as recent Gulf of Mexico oil catastrophe, Young Futurists Have neuroscience and health technolo- breaches of social contracts have be- Their Say gies. come legion, and new modes of en- At the Singularity University ses- gaged “DIY” (do-it-yourself) citizen- The World Future Society’s annual sion (moderated by José Cordeiro), ship and politics are emerging as a meetings allow futurist organiza- team projects to develop new enter- result. tions of all sorts to show off their prises were described by Nitesh We are entering a “new era of re­ products and services, and among Banta, Luke Hutchison, Justyna calibration,” from isolation to affilia- the most exciting showcases are Zander, Jessica Scorpio, and tion, and a lot is riding on organiza- those of educational institutions pro- ­Marianne Ryan. The Acasa project

54 THE FUTURIST November-December 2010 In Memoriam: Susan Echard

As many attendees at WorldFu- Despite illness, Sue At the 2010 confer- ture 2010 observed, our longtime continued to support ence, members of the conference and membership di- the Society’s programs Police Futurists In- rector, Susan Echard, was miss- and services throughout ternational presented ing. Sue had been battling lym- the first half of 2010, in- the Society a plaque phoma for the past year, and cluding session plan- of appreciation for though she actively participated ning for WorldFuture her. And longtime in organizing this year’s confer- 2010 and evaluating es- professional member ence, she was unable to attend. says submitted to the John ­Mahaffie de- Just a few short weeks after it was annual High School Es- scribed her as the over, on July 29, Sue passed away. say Contest. “heart, soul, and en- She was 65. Sue is survived by her Susan Echard. ergy of the World The Society’s Born in Cleveland, Ohio, Sue husband, Paul Echard; Future Society.” Kathleen Zellmer; student schol- pursued her education at the Uni- sister, arship program Sue’s strength and Jeffrie Zellmer; versity of Maryland (graduating brother, for future dedication were an magna cum laude) and Hood Col- and two stepchildren conferences inspiration to those lege (master’s degree in guidance and two step grandchil- has been who worked with and counseling), initially becom- dren. Interment took renamed in her her. She will truly be ing a public schoolteacher. place August 23, 2010, at honor. missed. DAVID MACK She found her calling at the Arlington National The World Future World Future Society, where she Cemetery, Arlington, Society’s board of di- was hired in 1977 as a temp for the Virginia. rectors has renamed membership department by then– News of Sue’s death has pro- the conference’s student scholar- Secretary/Treasurer P e t e r voked much sadness throughout ship program in her honor. Dona- ­Zuckerman. She gradually took the World Future Society commu- tions received for this program over as director of both the mem- nity, as “her ability to work with a enable the attendance of youth bership and conference planning variety of people, her loyalty to and full-time students under the departments. In 2004, she was WFS, and her genuine concern for age of 30. The program will now named Vice President for Member- others will not be matched,” in be known as the Susan Echard ship and Conference Operations. the words of her sister, Kathleen. Student Scholarship Program.

(Ryan), for instance, focuses on using Society feedback on programs that 3-D printing technology to create would be useful to them for plan- ­affordable housing, and the ning their lives and careers. Among ­Gettaround car-sharing program the services that the participants sug- For More Information (Scorpio and Banta) uses peer-to- gested were mentorship matching peer networking for individuals to and face-to-face networking oppor- • Strategies and Technologies for a rent their personal automobiles to tunities. Sustainable Future, edited by Cynthia neighbors or co-workers. This emphasis on the need for Another session focused on a face-to-face networking somewhat G. Wagner, is a volume of essays prepared unique project for high-school stu- contradicts the assumption that the for WorldFuture 2010 and distributed to dents, the Virtual Museum and STEM younger generations are more inter- all attendees. The volume is now available Careers Collaboratory of the Future, ested in communicating virtually. for $29.95 ($24.95 for Society members). and was moderated by Ted Kahn, Social networking technologies, it Order from www.wfs.org/node/64 CEO of Design Worlds for Learning appears, are a valuable tool, but not Inc. Among the projects showcased the only (or even the best) tool for • Audio and slide presentations from ❑ were Palo Alto High School senior such meetings of the mind. most sessions are available from Intelli- Nittai Malchin ’s organization One Quest Media as playable CDs or data Love Advocates, a social entrepre- About the Author DVDs. Order from IntelliQuest Media at neurship start-up he created after the Cynthia G. Wagner is managing editor of www.intelliquestmedia.com/store/search Haitian earthquake to help children THE FUTURIST magazine. She also .php?a=E&c=201026 of Haiti learn to use computers. served as the editor of the WorldFuture Kahn also helped organize an 2010 conference volume, Strategies and ad hoc Youth Forum for futurists un- Technologies for a Sustainable Future. der age 30 to give the World Future E‑mail [email protected].

THE FUTURIST November-December 2010 55