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China Autos Sector China Consumer Discretionary 4 January 2016 China Autos Sector Running on fumes in 2016; refill needed for 2017 Positive investor sentiment on the sector should persist in 1Q-3Q16, but concerns are likely to resurface as we get closer to 2017 We prefer domestic brands to foreign brands, but expect SUV margins Kelvin Lau to continue to deteriorate over our forecast period (852) 2848 4467 Positive on Geely, BAIC and DFM; negative on GWM; initiating on [email protected] DFM with an Outperform (2) and Brilliance with an Underperform (4) Brian Lam (852) 2532 4341 [email protected] See important disclosures, including any required research certifications, beginning on page 103 China Autos Sector: 4 January 2016 Table of contents Running on fumes in 2016; refill needed for 2017 ................................................. 5 Tax cut should boost sales volume growth in 2016 ........................................................... 5 Strong industry pipeline in 2016 ........................................................................................ 6 Domestic brands should keep outpacing foreign brands ..................................................10 Accelerating investment in NEVs in 2016-20 ...................................................................14 Balance sheets remain healthy ........................................................................................18 Hard to see any recovery for CVs ....................................................................................18 Valuations and recommendations ........................................................................ 20 Not that cheap anymore ...................................................................................................20 Recommendations ...........................................................................................................20 Risks to our Neutral sector view .......................................................................................21 Company Section Geely Automobile ............................................................................................................23 BAIC Motor ......................................................................................................................32 BYD .................................................................................................................................41 Dongfeng Motor Group ....................................................................................................52 Guangzhou Automobile Group .........................................................................................71 Brilliance China Automotive .............................................................................................78 Great Wall Motor ..............................................................................................................93 China Consumer Discretionary 4 January 2016 China Autos Sector Running on fumes in 2016; refill needed for 2017 Positive investor sentiment on the sector should persist in 1Q-3Q16, but concerns are likely to resurface as we get closer to 2017 We prefer domestic brands to foreign brands, but expect SUV margins Kelvin Lau to continue to deteriorate over our forecast period (852) 2848 4467 Positive on Geely, BAIC and DFM; negative on GWM; initiating on [email protected] DFM with an Outperform (2) and Brilliance with an Underperform (4) Brian Lam (852) 2532 4341 [email protected] What's new: We expect investor sentiment on the China Autos Sector to Key stock calls stay strong in 1Q-3Q16 on robust new PV sales resulting from the New Prev. purchase tax cut and a rich pipeline. However, we believe new PV sales Geely Automobile (175 HK) growth will slow in 4Q16, due to the high base in 4Q15 and because, as we Rating Buy Buy step into 2H16, we expect concerns on new-car unit sales to resurface in Target 4.90 4.90 Upside 15.8% 2017. In light of this, we maintain our Neutral rating on the sector. p BAIC Motor (1958 HK) Rating Buy Buy What's the impact: Strong sales volume growth in 1Q-3Q16E but YoY Target 9.40 9.40 decline in 2017E. We expect a 12% YoY rise in new passenger vehicle Upside p 21% (PV) sales volume in 1Q-3Q16 due to the tax policy and a strong pipeline Dongfeng Motor Group (489 HK) (see p. 8-9). We expect the YoY growth to be strongest in 2Q16-3Q16, up Rating Outperform 17-18% YoY, but for it to slow to flat YoY in 4Q16. In 2017, we expect new- Target 12.20 car unit sales to fall by 3% YoY, due to the high base effect and because Upside p 14.7% our base case assumes the end of the supportive tax rate – ie, that the Great Wall Motor (2333 HK) purchase tax cut won’t be extended beyond end-2016 and the tax will Rating Underperform Underperform actually rise again to 10% in 2017. Meanwhile, we expect strong SUV sales Target 8.40 8.90 Downside q 8.1% volume growth, but see SUV margins continuing to deteriorate due to rising Brilliance China Automotive (1114 HK) competition. Rating Underperform Target 8.90 Growth opportunities remain, in lower-tier cities and NEVs. While Downside q 9.6% overall car ownership in China’s lower-tier cities remains low, we stick with Source: Daiwa forecasts our view that this offers local OEMs good sales-volume growth opportunities. In addition, we expect local OEMs to produce more NEV China Autos sector: TP valuation summary models over our forecast period, prompted by China’s commitment to NEV Target price Target PER Company (HKD) 2016E infrastructure investment from 2016. On this theme, we see the key players Geely 4.90 11x as Geely (175 HK, HKD4.23, Buy [1]) and BYD (1211 HK, HKD42.40, BAIC Motor 9.40 9.5x Outperform [2]). Meanwhile, for luxury brands, we reiterate our view that BYD 47.00 SOTP Great Wall 8.40 7.5x overall sales performance will outperform the broader China autos market, GAC 7.00 8.5x at least in 2016-17. Dongfeng Motor 12.20 7.0x Brilliance China 8.90 10x What we recommend: Geely is still our top pick, due to its strong pipeline Source: Daiwa in 2016 and what we view as its long-term rerating story. We also expect strong sales-volume growth in 2016E for BAIC Motor (1958 HK, HKD7.77, Buy [1]) and Dongfeng Motor (DFM) (489 HK, HKD10.64, Outperform [2]), as they also both have rich pipelines. But we remain negative on Great Wall (GWM) (2333 HK, HKD9.14, Underperform [4]) as it has failed in its bid to upgrade its brand and its 2016 pipeline looks unexciting. The outlook for Brilliance China (1114 HK, HKD9.84, Underperform [4]) also looks uninspiring. The major risks to our Neutral sector view would be if new car sales were either weaker or stronger than expected. How we differ: We are one of only a few firms to expect a YoY decline in PV sales in 2017, making us more cautious than the market. See important disclosures, including any required research certifications, beginning on page 103 China Autos Sector: 4 January 2016 Sector stocks: key indicators EPS (local curr.) Share Rating Target price (local curr.) FY1 FY2 Company Name Stock code Price New Prev. New Prev. % chg New Prev. % chg New Prev. % chg BAIC Motor 1958 HK 7.77 Buy Buy 9.40 9.40 0.0% 0.674 0.674 0.0% 0.842 0.842 0.0% Brilliance China Automotive 1114 HK 9.84 Underperform 8.90 0.662 0.767 BYD 1211 HK 42.40 Outperform Outperform 47.00 56.00 (16.1%) 0.522 0.529 (1.3%) 0.918 1.089 (15.8%) Dongfeng Motor Group 489 HK 10.64 Outperform 12.20 1.395 1.532 Geely Automobile 175 HK 4.23 Buy Buy 4.90 4.90 0.0% 0.296 0.296 0.0% 0.382 0.382 0.0% Great Wall Motor 2333 HK 9.14 Underperform Underperform 8.40 8.90 (5.6%) 0.931 0.931 0.0% 0.945 0.945 0.0% Guangzhou Automobile Group 2238 HK 6.94 Hold Hold 7.00 6.40 9.4% 0.605 0.580 4.2% 0.704 0.636 10.8% Source: Bloomberg, Daiwa forecasts China Autos Sector: key assumptions Sales Volume (units, YoY %) 2013 2014 2015E 2016E 2017E 2013 2014 2015E 2016E 2017E Geely 549,000 418,000 500,000 600,000 645,000 13.6% -24.0% 19.6% 20.0% 7.4% Beijing Brand 202,000 309,000 314,000 420,000 480,000 159.3% 53.0% 1.3% 33.9% 14.3% Beijing Benz 116,000 145,000 249,000 323,000 372,000 12.6% 25.4% 71.0% 30.0% 15.0% Beijing Hyundai 1,031,000 1,120,000 1,042,000 1,152,000 1,226,000 19.9% 8.7% -7.0% 10.6% 6.4% GAC Honda 435,000 480,000 570,000 650,000 661,000 37.7% 10.3% 18.8% 14.0% 1.7% GAC Toyota 303,000 374,000 409,000 439,000 439,000 21.2% 23.4% 9.4% 7.3% 0.0% GWM 771,000 733,000 803,000 855,000 945,000 24.0% -4.9% 9.6% 6.4% 10.6% BYD - Conventional 470,000 373,000 386,000 395,000 423,000 11.9% -20.6% 3.5% 2.4% 7.0% BYD - NEV 3,000 21,000 68,000 123,000 149,000 -6.0% 563.9% 226.8% 79.9% 21.2% Dongfeng Nissan 926,000 952,000 981,000 1,144,000 1,202,000 19.8% 2.8% 3.0% 16.7% 5.0% Dongfeng PSA 550,000 704,000 699,000 713,000 691,000 25.0% 28.0% -0.7% 1.9% -3.0% Dongfeng Honda 321,000 308,000 398,000 458,000 455,000 13.8% -4.1% 29.1% 15.1% -0.7% Brilliance BMW 207,000 279,000 290,000 332,000 370,000 28.5% 34.7% 4.2% 14.6% 11.4% ASP (CNY, YoY %) 2013 2014 2015E 2016E 2017E 2013 2014 2015E 2016E 2017E Geely 52,246 52,024 56,706 61,243 65,530 5.8% 1.8% 9.0% 8.0% 7.0% Beijing Brand 33,852 40,178 36,160 33,267 32,269 -25.0% 18.7% -10.0% -8.0% -3.0% Beijing Benz 286,364 302,036 314,118 314,118 314,118 -0.6% 5.5% 4.0% 0.0% 0.0% Beijing Hyundai 100,084 97,938 93,530 90,725 88,003 10.8% -2.1% -4.5% -3.0% -3.0% GAC Honda 134,191 124,586 118,357 112,439 112,439 37.6% 10.2% 12.0% 10.0% 8.0% GAC Toyota 172,842 144,020 136,819 136,819 136,819 21.2% 23.4% 12.0% 8.0% 8.0% GWM 69,809 80,964 85,822 89,254 91,039 6.5% 16.0%
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