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The Roaring 2020S - a Decade of Potentially Positive Disruption

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The Roaring 2020S - a Decade of Potentially Positive Disruption PRELIMINARY SYLLABUS – Fall 2020 The Roaring 2020s - a decade of potentially positive disruption This decade is one of enormous change and will likely determine whether or not we will survive and, if so, how we will live. There have been new developments in the 21st century which enable colossal disruption to occur in the economy, political system, social mores, and health of all of us. In this study group we will look at the current situation and take out our crystal ball. While even the best futurologists can tell the details of how things will develop in the next 10 years, it is possible to develop an informed perspective and to anticipate the overall thrust of the change to come. Fortunately, there is much cause for optimism. THE 3 COMPONENTS OF THE COURSE: Challenges; Developments; Personal Impact 1. CHALLENGES: We will view the challenges that humanity faces, as determined by the sustainable development goals which the UN has helped us to formulate for attainment by 2030. The 17 Sustainable Development Goals of the UN are: 1. No Poverty 2. Zero Hunger 3. Good Health and Well-being 4. Quality Education 5. Gender Equality 6. Clean Water and Sanitation 7. Affordable Clean Energy 8. Decent Work and Economic Growth 9. Industry, Innovation, Infrastructure 10. Reduced Inequalities 11. Sustainable Cities and Communities 12. Responsible Consumption and Production 13. Climate Action 14. Life Below Water 15. Life on Land 16. Peace, Justice and Strong Institutions 17. Partnerships for the Goals There is a good description of them and information about progress on the SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT KNOWLEDGE PLATFORM There are a number of factors that make goal attainment by 2030 ever more difficult, such as: climate change; pollution; deforestation; cyber warfare; pandemics and increased resistance of antibiotics; population growth and change; armed conflict; forced migrations; data privacy; joblessness due to automation; terrorism; weapons of mass destruction; disruptions in international relations. as reflected in the UN’s 75th Anniversary Survey It is easy to feel dismay when contemplating all the world problems, and all the social dysfunction even in the developed countries. But, things are not as bad as the media would lead us to believe. In fact there has been enormous progress in the last century as detailed with many impressive statistics in Enlightenment Now by Stephen Pinker. In addition there has already been significant change in the 21st century when we have developed enormous networks that tie the world together – as described by Joshua Cooper Ramo in The Seventh Sense. All in all we have had much progress, and have created a platform for takeoff in the decade of the 20s. 2. DEVELOPMENTS: We will look at the exponentially developing and converging technologies which might create the abundance to make those goals achievable. There are new technologies that will have significant impact and may enable the attainment of many of the SDGs. The 10 principal exponentially developing and converging technologies in question are: 1. Quantum Computing 2. Arificial Intelligence 3. Networks/5G 4. Sensors 5. Robotics 6. Virtual Reality/Augmented Reality 7. 3D Printing 8. Blockchain 9. Materials Sciences 10. Biotechnology as set out in The Future is Faster Than You Think by Peter Diamandis and Steven Kotler. There are also new technologies and approaches, such as those set out in The Blue Economy by Gunter Pauli that make possible coherent economic development in accord with nature. They meet needs with useful and competitively priced products and services without waste and pollution. They involve harmonious systems that create employment. These approaches go beyond the mainstream technologies in terms of making use of natural processes that are effective and do not disrupt the environment; in many cases they bring about ecological remediation and alleviate poverty. The c-virus crisis is accelerating the adoption of these transformative technologies and approaches, and the rationalization of our society and economy. Numerous economic sectors are being impacted – e.g communications, coordination, commerce, consumption, transportation, real estate, healthcare, education. PERSONAL IMPACT: A. Our Political and Social Environment: There is fresh thinking, often intermeshed with scientific discoveries and technological enabling, that could make possible coherent, collaborative and effective world organization and the attainment at least in part of the 16th SDG (peace, government, and strong institutions). This should make possible improvement in local and State government in the US, although the strictures of the American constitution and political rivalries make real progress on the national scale problematical in the US. However, the extreme disruption that will take place in our economy and society during the decade of the 2020s should lead to a different power configuration as some industries crumble and others rise, and that could make significant salutary change possible. There are examples of well-functioning systems and novel ideas set out in Technocracy in America by Parag Khanna. B. Our Minds and Bodies: the progress in biotechnology/physiology and psychology should make it possible for us to live longer, healthier and more fulfilled lives. In Lifespan, David Sinclair describes the research in his laboratory at the Harvard Medical School and elsewhere that provide insights into body functioning inside the cells that impact aging – the functioning of DNA and RNA with respect to cell components, the mechanism of aging, the ways that aging can be slowed and vigor preserved and enhanced. It turns out that in increasing longevity, the medications and therapies being developed improve health and enable activity – the process of aging is itself a disease and if it can be counteracted, various illnesses that currently plague our society such as diabetes, coronary disease, hypertension, and cancer can be prevented or reduced. This enables an extended healthy life. If the new therapies have the same effect in humans as they have been having in laboratory animals, it will make it possible to have extended lifespan and a reduced period of enfeeblement before death. This promises to have enormous impact on our healthcare system, and should reduce costs enormously. There should also be far-ranging social disruption as older people are able to function well into their 90s and 100s – they will be able to continue working and undertake new careers. At the same time there have been very encouraging new knowledge of brain function accompanied by complementary recent developments in psychology. We now know that the brain is plastic and malleable and, with appropriate stimulation, continues to produce new neurons and connective tissues as long as we live. We have started to learn how the brain functions – how the different segments perform and interact with respect to cognition, emotions and memory. Although, we have only begun to discover the mysteries of this extremely complex organ (with 80 billion neurons and an equal number of complementary cells for transmission and coordination of impulses) we have learned much that is useful with respect to sleep, learning, and conscious function. Since 1990 the field of positive psychology has been developed. It is no longer the objective of psychology only to bring people with disturbed psyches to a functional state without distress and dysfunction. Now the objective is to optimize the positive characteristics that people have so that they can have fulfillment in their lives. We now have awareness of the components that make for a genuinely happy life and we have developed methods to improve people’s functioning, resilience and life satisfaction. The evolution of psychology is set out in The Hope Circuit by Martin Seligman, the father of positive psychology. WHERE THINGS STAND AT THE BEGINNING OF THE DECADE: There is much cause for hope that humanity can weather the many disruptions and difficulties in the world and can make use of new developments to survive and thrive. This would set the stage for yet greater achievements and progress in the 30s and beyond. .
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